Month: September 2012

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: Week 4 NFL pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bills, Patriots

New England Patriots (1-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-1)

The Patriots are under .500 for the first time since week 1 2003, snapping an NFL record for consecutive weeks under .500. Of course, they went on to go 14-2 that year and win the Super Bowl. The Patriots also haven’t lost 3 straight since 2002, the last time they missed the playoffs, so they’ll put that streak on the line as well tonight. Do I think they snap that streak as well? Well, anything’s possible, but I’m not going to bet it.

This is the exact situation the Patriots thrive in. Tom Brady is 25-12 ATS off a loss in his career (including a cover last week, which was not a BS cover because the Patriots led ATS the entire night), and 10-1 ATS off a close loss (1-3 points), which was also a situation in play last week. I try to watch as little of the talking heads on television as I possibly can, but whenever it’s been unavoidable (like during the Thursday Night telecast this week), one of the main topics was “how can the Patriots get it together?” You know the Patriots are using that as bulletin board material, just like their 1-2 record.

Plus, I also find that question pretty stupid. It’s not like the Patriots are in disarray or anything. They’ve lost 2 straight games by a combined 2 points to two teams that are a combined 6-1. Extra motivated by all the doubt and facing an easier team, the Patriots should bounce back this week. They’ve gotten off to slow starts in their last 2 years, starting 1-1 in 2010 and 2-1 and 5-3 last year, before eventually going on 13-1 and 8-0 runs respectively, 13-2 and 10-1 if you include playoffs. This is the most consistent franchise in the NFL over the last decade and as weird as this season has been, I think the weirdest thing that could happen would be this team falling to 1-3 against an old punching bag and looking poised to miss the playoffs for the first time since 2002, especially since Tom Brady isn’t even playing badly or anything (66.9% completion, 7.5 YPA, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception).

Speaking of the old punching bag Bills, I call them that because they’re not really a punching bag any more. They stand at 2-1 and they have a solid defense, a solid running game, a fantastic offensive line, and a quarterback who can move the chains if you give him time. However, they’re really built to win games against bad teams where they can establish their game plan.

Considering their game plans starts with a strong defense that allows their conservative offense to function, this week could be a rude awakening for them. Tom Brady is playing just fine and just scored 29 points on the Ravens, even in a loss. They will probably not be able to run as much as they normally do (and both CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson are questionable), which will put more pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick than you would like, bad news for a quarterback who leads the league in interceptions over the last calendar year.

The one matchup concern I have is how good Buffalo’s offensive line is. They rank 1st in the league in pass block efficiency, which is no fluke because they did the same thing last year. The Patriots secondary is not very good and if you give him time, any quarterback can tear it up, at least in theory. I say in theory because, while Fitzpatrick had a great game the first time these two met last year (27 of 40 for 369 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions), he really struggled in their next meeting, going 29 of 46 for 307 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. The Patriots are great at game planning so it’s possible they just figured out Chan Gailey’s scheme and made Fitzpatrick look like the system quarterback he is.

The Bills might not be a punching bag any more, but their 3 games have come against very easy opponents. In fact, you can argue that all 3 teams they’ve played are worse than each of the 3 teams the Patriots have played (Tennessee/NY Jets is debatable). The pissed off Patriots should be able to make them look like a punching bag this week. The only reason this isn’t a pick of the week is because the public is pounding the Patriots (though the line movement is going in the right direction) and the public is 4-12 on heavy leans this year. Also home dogs are 13-6 ATS this season, including 12-7 straight up, but I think that had more to do with the replacement refs than anything. I also don’t like that I don’t have field goal protection because there could be a backdoor cover, but I expect the Patriots to come out on fire and put the Bills away early to shut up their critics. Them starting 1-3 would just be too weird.

Public lean: New England (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Buffalo covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): BUF 6 NE 10

Update: This was feeling like a bit of a trap line, so I’m glad to see the sharps like New England too. I’m not dropping any units.

New England Patriots 34 Buffalo Bills 20

Pick against spread: New England -4.5 (-110) 3 units

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New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Eagles, Giants

New York Giants (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)

Wow, the public has really soured on Philadelphia. A week ago they were heavily bet as road favorites and now one week later, the public is pounding the Giants in this one with the Eagles being just 1 point favorites at home. Dogs after losing as road favorites are 23-11 ATS since 2008. I know the Eagles aren’t technically dogs, but being 1 point home favorites and having the public betting heavily against you is about as close to being dogs as you can be. By the way, when you add in teams that were 1 point favorites to that aforementioned stat, it’s 24-12, so not much difference. Besides, the public is getting killed this year, especially on bets like this, as the public is 4-12 on heavy leans, which is what this is in favor of the Giants. I like to fade heavy leans as much as I can.

The Eagles have gotten killed with turnovers in their first 3 games, with a league worst -6 turnover ratio. However, that tends to even out on a week to week basis. Going back to 2002, looking at teams with every turnover differential from -5 to +5 in a single game, they all average a turnover differential of about +0 in their next game. This is still one of the most talented teams in the league and they rank 4th in the league in yards per play differential, a much more consistent stat. I expect them to eventually get their act together and finish as one of the best teams in the league.

Speaking of yards per play differential, Philadelphia’s yards per play differential is 1 yard better than New York’s and an old handicapping formula says to divide to that by .15 and add 3 either way for home field advantage to determine the “real line.” That suggests that Philadelphia should actually be favored by 9.5 points. It’s more accurate to use that a few more weeks into the season, but it’s worth noting. The Eagles’ only glaring flaw so far has been ball security, but the Giants have an equally glaring flaw and it’s their dead last ranked pass defense. Pass defense is not as inconsistent on a week to week basis as turnovers are, so the Eagles should be able to take advantage, especially now that they’re healthy in the receiving corps with Jeremy Maclin returning.

Besides, this is the type of atmosphere the Eagles thrive in. As dogs or favorites of 1, the Eagles are 49-30 ATS since 1999, which was when Andy Reid took over. Coming off a loss as a favorite, they’re 23-17 ATS. When you combine those two, they’re 7-3 ATS coming off a loss as a favorite as a dog or favorite of 1. The Giants are in a few situations they normally thrive in as well. They are 33-15 ATS on the road since 2007 and Giants are 41-27 ATS (49-19 SU) in weeks 1-9 since 2004 and they’re coming off 10 days rest. Teams are 109-89 ATS on Sunday off of Thursday Night football. However, they’re also just 1-5 off a win of 28 or more in the Coughlin era and the Eagles have owned this rivalry of late, winning in 7 of their last 8 matchups.

This really feels like the type of game the Eagles are going to win. It’s one of those things that tough to explain in numbers (though I definitely tried), but when you watch enough football you develop a 6th sense for this kind of thing. Everyone is doubting the Eagles, who, the important numbers say are the more talented, while the Giants are in a situation where they can’t play the “nobody believes in us card,” which they might do better than anyone in football. They also zig when you expect them to zag and zag when you expect them to zig and right now, everyone expects them to win. There are things working in both sides’ favor, but it’s still a significant play on the home team.

Public lean: NY Giants (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): PHI 13 NYG 8

Philadelphia Eagles 31 New York Giants 24

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -1 (-115) 3 units

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Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Broncos, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (1-2) at Denver Broncos (1-2)

I thought the Raiders were overrated coming into the season and now they’re even more overrated coming off a “surprising” win over the Steelers. Their upset win over the Steelers was not completely shocking given how much the Steelers have sucked over the last year plus on the road. They are -43 on the road in that time period, including playoffs, and +137 at home. They beat Indianapolis by just 3, Kansas City by just 4, and Cleveland by just 3 last year.

Given that they were missing James Harrison and Troy Polamalu last weekend, this upset was not shocking. There’s a reason I made it a very small pick even though Pittsburgh had the clear on paper advantage. The Raiders are one of 15 1-2 teams in the NFL right now. Some of them are going to make the playoffs, some of them are going to be terrible. I think this team is one of the latter. Remember, they lost 35-13 to the Dolphins just 2 weeks ago.

Their defense has been exactly as you’d expect from a defense that ranked 29th in scoring last year and then who lost their top cornerback and top pass rusher this offseason. Injuries have hammered them on that side of the ball too as linebacker Aaron Curry is expected to miss the entire season, while top cornerback Ronald Bartell will miss at least 6 weeks after being put on non-season ending IR.

Shawntae Spencer, another starting cornerback, could also miss this game. Spencer isn’t very good, but he was a starter at a very thin position to begin with. After failing to return everyone at the position who played a single snap for them in 2011, the Raiders have lost their top two cornerbacks with injury and will likely start Patrick Lee and Phillip Adams in this one. Meanwhile, defensive tackles Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly are showing their age. They allowed 36 catches on 49 attempts for 384 yards and 4 touchdowns to Ben Roethlisberger and 433 total yards even in a winning effort last week. Yeah, good luck containing Peyton Manning.

The Raiders’ offense has been better and they were able to keep up with the Steelers last week, but I don’t expect that they’ll be able to do that this week. If they allow 31 points this week, they’ll probably lose easily. The Steelers’ defensive effort was pitiful last weekend on the road, missing James Harrison and Troy Polamalu. The Broncos have been one of the better defensive teams in the league this season and the Raiders will be without Darrius Heyward-Bey, so they’ll really only have one reliable receiver, Denarius Moore. Champ Bailey should be able to shut him down.

While the Raiders are a little overrated, the Broncos are a little underrated. Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Houston, talk about being welcomed back to the NFL harshly for Peyton Manning. The Broncos stand at 1-2, but they rank 9th in yards per play differential and they’ve been competitive in all 3 games despite a tough schedule. They should still be very tough to beat at home with their no huddle in the high altitude, despite a loss to a Houston team that might be the best in the league, and make the playoffs propelled by a 6-2 or 7-1 home record.

With a much, much easier matchup and in his 4th game back, Peyton Manning should be able to have by far his best game, and he hasn’t been terrible at all considering the matchups, completing 60.0% of his passes for 7.2 YPA and 5 touchdowns to 3 interceptions. I just don’t see any way this patchwork Raiders defense has any chance of stopping Manning and his no huddle offense in the high altitude. The Broncos should get into the 30s again and I don’t trust the Raiders to keep up. Despite 34 points last week, they average just 20.3 points play game.

One trend works against the Broncos, favorites off a loss as a dog before being dogs are 51-77 ATS since 2008. Teams tend to see those games as a breather and be flat, but this is a divisional game so it’s less likely they’ll be flat (11-16 ATS in that situation in a divisional game between two non-divisional games). Besides, at 1-2, this is a really important game for them.

Public lean: Denver (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Oakland covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): OAK 4 DEN 7

Denver Broncos 31 Oakland Raiders 17

Pick against spread: Denver -7 (-110) 3 units

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Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Lions, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (2-1) at Detroit Lions (1-2)

I’ve been saying it all along that the Lions are overrated. It’s one of the preseason predictions that I’m proud of. They sit at 1-2, coming off a loss to the Titans with only a comeback win by 3 at home against the Rams. Last year, they went 10-6 despite the league’s 23rd ranked defense because their passing offense was so good. Matt Stafford threw for over 5000 yards and 41 touchdowns and led an NFL record 4 comebacks of 13 or more. They also didn’t finish well, going 5-7 in their last 12, including playoffs, after a 5-0 start

They didn’t fix their defensive problems and they simply couldn’t count on their offense to bail them out at a record rate anymore, especially since Matt Stafford was still a one year wonder coming in this year and one with a history of injures. They also didn’t have a reliable running game to lean on. Stafford hasn’t been bad, but he hasn’t been the quarterback he was last year. Dating back to last year, this team is 6-9 in their last 15. Now Stafford is hurt. He returned to practice today and will play, but an injury, even a hip injury, is hardly a good thing for someone having a little bit of a regression already, especially for a team so reliant on the passing attack.

Defensively, they’ve gotten healthier in the secondary over the last couple of weeks as they now have #1 cornerback Chris Houston back from injury. He played well last week, but the Lions surrendered 378 yards and 2 touchdowns to Jake Locker on a 9.0 YPA clip. They rank 24th in the league in opponent’s YPA. Remember, even though they are healthier now, they weren’t a very good pass defense to start with and they lost starting cornerback Eric Wright this offseason. Louis Delmas is also still hurt, leaving Houston as the only capable starter in a secondary with 3rd round rookie Dwight Bentley, Jacob Lacey, a failed starter in Indianapolis last year, and two veteran journeymen John Wendling and Erik Coleman.

There’s also the issue of their pass rush. They actually rank just 26th in the league in pass rush efficiency, down from 8th in 2011. That was really the only reason their defense was even mediocre last year. It’s unclear if this is something that will continue into the future or if it’s just a fluke, but it’s definitely concerning. Cliff Avril, possibly dealing with the effects of a holdout this offseason, has just 6 pressures, with one sack, on 77 pass rush snaps, while soon to be 34 year old Kyle Vanden Bosch has just 3 with 1 sack on 82 pass rush snaps. He’s looking pretty done. Given how bad their secondary is, they won’t have any chance of stopping anyone if they keep letting quarterbacks sit in the pocket like that. All 3 quarterbacks they’ve played have moved the ball with ease against them, and it’s not a Pro Bowl group of guys either. They’ve faced Sam Bradford, Alex Smith, and Jake Locker.

Christian Ponder should be able to move the ball on these guys with ease as well. The Vikings’ win over the 49ers was no fluke. They rank 8th in the league in yards per play differential and they have a winning record despite no advantage in turnovers +0. The Vikings went 3-13 last year, but had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6 wins and averaged 22.9 points per game, which would have been 16th in the league, in the 9 games Christian Ponder led the team in passing attempts. Ponder has taken a major step forward in his 2nd year in the league, completing 70.1% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions, including 21 of 35 for 198 yards and 2 scores against the 49ers, probably the league’s best defense.

Percy Harvin has emerged not just a legitimate #1 receiver, but one of the best receivers in the league, ranking 3rd in the league in yards from scrimmage by a receiver, now that the coaching staff is utilizing him properly. Kyle Rudolph has emerged as a secondary option. The offensive line ranks 6th in the league in pass block efficiency thanks to some offseason changes and the defense is better as well now that they’re healthier. Every year a team goes from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs. The Vikings are the favorites right now and by a good margin after other candidates St. Louis, Washington, and Tampa Bay all lost last week. Of the 7 candidates, only Minnesota is even in the top-24 in yards per play differential.

Ponder will also be helped by Adrian Peterson, who has made a miraculously recovery. Detroit actually ranks 13th in the league against the run, but considering they’ve faced Chris Johnson and a probably washed up Steven Jackson in 2 of their 3 games, I think that’s a bit of a fluke. Last year they ranked 30th against the run. Peterson should be able to be a reliable compliment for Christian Ponder and this improved passing game, which should be able to tear up the Lions’ awful pass defense.

Minnesota’s defense is much improved this season, thanks to the emergence of guys like Erin Henderson, who will return from injury this week, and Brian Robison, as well as the return for Antoine Winfield for injury and other factors. Detroit is by far the best passing offense they’ve faced (Jacksonville, Indianapolis, San Francisco) and they will move the chains with some ease, so this will be a shoot out, but I like Minnesota this week.

One trend works in Minnesota’s favor. They’re dogs after winning as dogs before being favorites (home for Tennessee next week). Teams are 35-18 ATS in this situation since 2008. Teams tend to feel disrespected coming off big upset wins if they are still not favored and tend to cover so long as their next game isn’t a hard one that they could possibly be caught losing ahead to. Both Arizona and Seattle covered in this situation last week. Minnesota will be extra motivated to win a statement game here as well because it’s a divisional opponent.

On top of that, I just feel like we’re getting more than 3 points with the better team on the road. Minnesota’s yards per play differential is .5 yards better than Detroit’s and an old handicapping formula says to divide to that by .15 and add 3 either way for home field advantage to determine the “real line.” That suggests that Minnesota should actually be favored by half a point.

It’s more accurate to use that a few more weeks into the season, but it’s worth noting and formula aside, I do think Minnesota is the better team right now and in a better situation, as an underrated team playing to be taken seriously even after a big upset. I’m putting 3 units on this for now and I might add an extra one if I see that the public starts pounding Detroit because I love to fade the public. However, this line was just posted, so I don’t know which way the public is leaning yet. There may be an update to this.

Public lean: ?

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): MIN 9 DET 4

Minnesota Vikings 31 Detroit Lions 27 Upset Pick +185

Pick against spread: Minnesota +4.5 (-110) 3 units

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Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Rams, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at St. Louis Rams (1-2)

I love to exploit home/road discrepancies so the Seahawks are one of my favorite teams to bet. Since 2007, they are 29-14 ATS at home and 14-28 ATS on the road. Riding that trend is the reason why I’ve selected every Seahawks game correctly this year and for significant units as well. Going on the road to St. Louis this week, I plan to continue using that trend, especially since NFC West teams are just 23-36 ATS on the road over that same time period.

Now onto what happened last week for the Seahawks. Bogus win aside, you can have whatever opinion on what happened, one thing is for sure, the Seahawks really struggled moving the ball. Marshawn Lynch is the only player on this offense I really trust. Russell Wilson is definitely a likeable guy, but the fact is he’s a 3rd round rookie quarterback not getting any help from his receiving corps or offensive line who is subsequently completing 57.3% of his passes for an average of 5.8 YPA, 4* touchdowns and 1 interception.

Last week, against a Packer defense that has had more than its fair share of problems stopping people recently, Wilson was just 10 of 21 for 130 yards and 2 scores and that’s including a 24 yard touchdown that was questionable at best. Aside from the touchception, Wilson only made one big play through the air all night, a 41 yard touchdown strike to Golden Tate. Wilson showed good arm strength on the throw, but it was really just a long pitch and catch aided by a blown coverage. It doesn’t make up for the fact that he didn’t really do anything else notable all night. Aside from that last score, the Seahawks scored just 7 points at home last week.

While the Packers’ defense has had its fair share of issues stopping people recently, the Rams have done a great job of fixing their defense this offseason. Despite playing a fairly tough slate of offenses, Detroit, Washington, and Chicago, their defense actually ranks middle of the pack in terms of yards per play allowed. Facing their easiest test yet, they should be able to put the clamps on a mediocre Seattle offense that ranks 30th in the league in yards per play, especially since Seattle won’t have the 12th man on their side this week.

St. Louis’ offense is pretty mediocre too, but they’re actually averaging 0.5 yards per play more than the Seahawks. The Seahawks have an amazing defense though and St. Louis’ offensive line is held together with scotch tape right now, so don’t expect the Rams to move the ball much, though they do have the better quarterback. Seattle’s point per play differential is .6 yards better than St. Louis’s and an old handicapping formula says to divide to that by .15 and add 3 either way for home field advantage to determine the “real line.”

Using that, Seattle should actually be favored by just 1 points, rather than 2.5 and that doesn’t even take into account that Seattle’s home/road discrepancy over the last few years suggests that more than 3 points should be added for home field advantage in games involving them. At home, they’re outscoring opponents by 4.3 points per game and, on the road, they are getting outscored by 8.7 points per game since 2007.

This is going to be an ugly low scoring game that either side can win and St. Louis has a much better shot than people are giving them. Not only is this line off by at least a couple of points, the public is leaning pretty heavily towards Seattle. The public is getting killed this year, as they normally do, so that’s a pretty bad sign for Seattle. One other trend that works against Seattle is that teams coming off a close (1-3 points) win as home dogs are 19-31 ATS since 2002. Those teams tend to be flat after such a close and emotional upset win and that should be only magnified this week after how last week ended and what happened after it.

If we still had the replacement refs, this would have been my pick of the week because home dogs have been dominating this year under them because they tended to side with the home crowd on calls (Seattle knows that better than anyone). Home dogs were 12-7 SU and 13-6 ATS under the replacement refs, which is insane, but there’s no guarantee that will continue now that they’re gone. Still, that trend is noteworthy and I still like St. Louis to get the win and cover here for a significant play. We’re getting points with a home team that has the superior quarterback against a likely distracted team that sucks on the road in a year where home dogs are winning often.

Public lean: Seattle (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if St. Louis covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): STL 19 SEA 1

Update: Biggest sharps lean of the week, by far. Feeling really good about St. Louis now.

St. Louis Rams 17 Seattle Seahawks 13 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: St. Louis +2.5 (-105) 4 units

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Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Falcons, Panthers

Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-0)

The Carolina Panthers looked terrible on national television last week, turning the ball over 5 times en route to a 36-7 home loss to the Giants. The Falcons, meanwhile, looked great last week, forcing 4 turnovers, while committing only one of their own, en route to a 27-3 road win in San Diego. The Falcons are 3-0 with wins over Denver and San Diego, while Carolina is 1-2 with their only win coming against a 0-3 New Orleans team. Atlanta has the league’s best turnover differential at +10, while Carolina has the league’s worst at -6. Atlanta is also awesome at home. They’ll dominate the turnover battle and win this ease right?

Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as the public is pounding the Falcons.  If this year is any indication, the public perception is normally wrong. That’s why the odds makers are rich. On games with more than 80% of the action on one side, the public is just 4-12 this year. This game fits that description. However, there are several reasons why I think Carolina has a good chance to cover.

For one, they actually rank 3rd in the league in yards per play differential, while Atlanta ranks 10th. Carolina’s point per play differential is .8 yards better than Atlanta’s and an old handicapping formula says to divide to that by .15 and add 3 either way for home field advantage to determine the “real line.” Using that, Carolina should actually be FAVORED by 2.5 points. That obviously works a little bit better a few more weeks into the season, but it’s definitely worth noting.

So why is there such a big difference between the two teams’ records and their yards per play differential? Well, turnover differential is obviously a huge part of it, but I find yards to be a much more consistent stat. Teams that lose the turnover differential battle by 5, like the Panthers did last week, have a turnover differential of +0.0 in their following game since 2002. Meanwhile, teams that win the turnover differential battle by 3 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002.

Unlike people think, the Falcons won’t necessarily dominate the turnover battle and dominate this game. History suggests that each team will have an equal amount of turnovers and that will make whichever team can outgain the other the team that’s most likely to win. I know it’s been only 3 games, but if this season is any indication, that team is Carolina.

Three more good trends work in Carolina’s favor. Carolina is coming off a Thursday Night game, so they’ll be well rested. Teams in this situation are 109-89 ATS on Sundays. The Panthers are also coming off a blowout loss, which, however counterintuitive, is a positive trend for them this week. Teams coming off embarrassing losses (28 points or more) are 99-69 ATS since 2002. Those teams tend to be undervalued by the odds makers after because of overreaction to one week. Carolina is also dogs before and after being favorites coming off a loss, a situation teams are 46-21 ATS in since 2002. Teams tend to be extra focused for a tough opponent coming off an upset loss, knowing that there’s an easy game on the horizon.

The Panthers aren’t really undervalued here because there hasn’t been any line movement from last week to this week, despite what happened with these two teams last week, but it’s very possible that the odds makers are just doing that to keep this a “too good to be true” line and setting the public up to fail, as they do so often. This game has all the looks of a game where the odds makers murder the public again. I’m not falling for it.

Carolina is a much better team than they’ve looked this season, especially than they looked last week, while Atlanta has been very reliant on turnovers this year. Atlanta could also be flat this week against an inferior team after finally having been anointed as the top team in the NFC. The only reason this isn’t a very large play is because of how good Atlanta is at home with Matt Ryan (26-5 SU, 21-9 ATS), but they’re just 6-4 ATS in the division and we have some room with this big line and touchdown protection, so this is still a fairly large play and my co-pick of the week.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Carolina covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): CAR 14 ATL 7

Update: My 3 co-picks of the week all coincide with the 3 strongest sharps leans of the week. Feeling good.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Carolina Panthers 24

Pick against spread: Carolina +7 (-110) 4 units

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Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Dolphins

Miami Dolphins (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (3-0)

The Cardinals are 3-0 right now, but they’re incredibly overrated. Do you really trust anyone on this offense other than Larry Fitzgerald? The defense is great, but I don’t think they’re well rounded enough to make the playoffs in a loaded NFC. They have a negative yards per play differential and rank tied for 30th in offensive yards per plays. 3-0 is impressive, especially considering who they’ll played, but the Bills started 3-0 last year. Almost every year, there’s a team that gets off to a good start and then fades away and misses the playoffs and makes their believers look dumb (“This Ryan Fitzpatrick is the real deal.” “Rex Grossman is a legitimate franchise quarterback.”).

Winning 3 in a row at any point in a season isn’t that impressive, but when teams do it to start the season, it’s much more noticeable and you get idiots like Michael Silver putting them first in his Power Rankings (Really? Kevin Kolb is going to win the Super Bowl?). This is essentially the same team that finished last year 8-8 and I expect them to finish somewhere around there this year. Bettors should ride the correction for the rest of the season.

Bettors should also take advantage of a dynamic change with the Cardinals going from dogs in 3 straight (and pulling 3 straight upsets) to being favorites. It’s one thing to win when nobody believes in you. It’s another to win when you buy into your own hype (see the 49ers last week). As a result of this, home favorites are 3-12 ATS since 2008 after a win as a home dog (15-23 ATS since 2002, 38-51 ATS since 1989). The Cardinals could easily be overconfident in this one after 3 not as impressive as they seem wins against the “lowly” Dolphins, especially just a few days before a Thursday Night divisional matchup with the Rams.

Now onto the “lowly” Dolphins. They’re not as lowly as they seem. In fact, both they and the Cardinals have the same yards per play differential, which suggests this line should be -3, instead of -6. The Dolphins’ offense is completely inept, but their defense is not bad at all. They were the league’s 6th ranked scoring defense last year and this year they’ve picked up right where they left off. This should be a low scoring game and the Cardinals don’t have the type of offense to be 6 point favorites against a good defense. The Dolphins are also in a good situation. Teams that nearly pull off upsets as a home dog (loss by 3 or fewer) are 58-40 ATS in their next game since 2002.

Injuries will play a factor in this game as both Reggie Bush and Darnell Dockett are key players who are questionable for the Dolphins and Cardinals respectively. Dockett’s injury is bigger because he’s a key player on defense for them, such a key unit given their offense’s mediocrity. Bush is also more likely to play because he practiced today, while Dockett did not. Besides, in his absence last week, Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas didn’t look too bad.

I don’t love any one single play this week, but this is one of my favorite and a co-pick of the week. Arizona is overrated and struggles on offense. Against a tough and underrated defense, there’s no way they should be laying more than a field goal. If they win, it’ll be a game similar to their first 2 (by 3 and by 2), rather than last week, when Philadelphia imploded on themselves. Arizona won last week largely because they were +3 in the turnover margin. However, turnovers are very unpredictable on a week to week basis. Teams that win the turnover differential battle by 3 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

They’re also in a prime letdown situation as home favorites after 3 straight upset wins. San Francisco is better coached, more proven, and more legitimately talented than the Cardinals are and even they bought into their own hype last week. Expect a similar result from Arizona this week against a similarly underrated team, especially with a divisional clash coming up in just 4 days.

The other thing I like in this game is that the public is pounding Arizona and predictably so. The general perception is that Arizona is a legitimate 3-0 team, while Miami is terrible, so Arizona should easily beat them by a touchdown. If this year is any indication, the general perception is normally wrong. That’s why the odds makers are rich. On games with more than 80% of the action on one side, the public is just 4-12 this year.

This game fits that description and yet the line is still dropping, indicative of a trap line. It also curiously didn’t move from last week to this week, despite Arizona’s huge win, as it was -6 last week and opened this week at -6.5 (it’s now dropped to -6 or -5.5). The odds makers want as much money as possible coming in on Arizona, probably because they know something the general public doesn’t understand, which is that these teams aren’t that unevenly matched, as their yards per play differential would indicate. Smart bettors won’t fall for their trap and will ride the correction against Arizona.

Public lean: Arizona (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): MIA 16 ARZ 5

Update: My 3 co-picks of the week all coincide with the 3 strongest sharps leans of the week. Feeling good.

Miami Dolphins 17 Arizona Cardinals 16 Upset Pick +210

Pick against spread: Miami +6 (-105) 4 units

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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Browns, Ravens

Cleveland Browns (0-3) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

Yards per play differential is my favorite single stat and right now, the Baltimore Ravens lead the league in it. However, as with any stat, you have to add a human element to it sometimes to interpret it. Baltimore’s defense, uncharacteristically, has been pretty middle of the pack this year, but an offense that ranks 1st in yards per play is behind their high overall ranking. The defensive relative struggles are explainable. The team is missing top pass rusher Terrell Suggs, among others, and ranks just 24th in the league in pass rush efficiency. This has lead to a pass defense that ranks 27th in the league in YPA.

Their suddenly explosive offense is also explainable if you believe that Joe Flacco has taken that next step as a quarterback in his 5th year in the league, thanks, in part, to Torrey Smith breaking out as the legitimate #1 receiver he’s never really had. Flacco has looked very good overall this season, completing 64.5% of his passes for an average of 8.3 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. If he keeps that up all year, those will not only be career highs across the board, but he’ll put himself in the MVP discussion.

However, it’s worth noting that he has played very well in two games against poor pass defenses, Cincinnati ranks 28th and New England ranks 21st, despite facing Kevin Kolb and Jake Locker in two of their games, but he also struggled against the only good pass defense he’s faced so far, going 22 of 42 for 232 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception against the Eagles and their 1st ranked pass defense. Just 3 games into the season, I’d say the jury is still out on Flacco as an elite quarterback.

Fortunately for him, he gets another easy test this week. Cleveland actually ranks 16th in the league against the pass, but if you exclude the game that Joe Haden played, they’re allowing 8.0 YPA, which would be 22nd in the league and that’s against Andy Dalton and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Haden is out for this one, so the Browns don’t have much chance of stopping the Ravens’ offense. Aside from Haden, their secondary is a mess. They’ve already benched two starters back there and neither of their replacements have played much better.

Meanwhile, Jabaal Sheard, their best and only pass rusher from last season, is having a major sophomore slump, with just 6 total pressures and no sacks on 112 pass rush snaps through 3 games. The Browns also have some trouble against the run, ranking 18th in YPC allowed, clearly missing injured nose tackle Phil Taylor. This was the league’s 5th ranked scoring defense last year, but missing key members with other key members struggling, they’re nowhere near that good this year.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Browns are also pretty bad. The Ravens, as I mentioned, do struggle against the pass, but Brandon Weeden is the worst quarterback they’ve faced so far (Andy Dalton, Michael Vick, Tom Brady). Weeden might not be terrible, but he has no help from his supporting cast. They are incredibly young offensively. Besides Joe Thomas, only the washed up Ben Watson is playing significant snaps and was drafted before 2009 and Watson might be losing his job to 2nd year tight end Jordan Cameron. They have 5 rookies playing major roles and 2 players in their 2nd year, 3 if you include Cameron.

Given their youth, they’re at a major disadvantage travelling on 3 days rest. The Ravens’ offense also might not perform up to their normal level on a short week, as short week’s tend to favor defenses (the under is 67-50 on Thursday Night Football since 1989), but the Ravens have an advantage being a proven, veteran, well coached team at home. Home favorites are 45-24 ATS on Thursday since 1989, including 10-3 ATS when the line is 10+. The Browns’ best offensive player is Trent Richardson, but he won’t be able to do much in this game because Baltimore is one again a top-5 run defense.

This game seems pretty cut and dry. The Ravens are one of the best teams in the league and the Browns are one of the worst. As big as this spread is, we’re actually get some line value with the home team. Baltimore’s point per play differential is 1.7 yards better than Cleveland’s and an old handicapping formula says to divide to that by .15 and add 3 either way for home field advantage to determine the “real line.” If you do that, Baltimore would be 14.5 point favorites and that’s not even taking into account how much worse the Browns are without Haden. That obviously works a little bit better a few more weeks into the season, but it’s worth noting.

The experienced, proven Ravens also have a major advantage as huge home favorites on Thursday Night. They’ll be much better prepared for this game than the young Browns, who have to travel. Two factors keep this from being a big play. One is just the size of the line. I hate making big plays on 10+ point favorites. The other is that Baltimore could conceivably be flat off of a huge win last week. Favorites coming off close win as dogs or favorites of 3 or less are 63-95 ATS since 2002, though that trend is less prevalent over the past few years (26-35 ATS since 2008). I still expect this to be a blowout and Baltimore is my survivor pick of the week. I’m also putting a unit on the under (44) because of the trend in mentioned earlier with over/unders on Thursday Night.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Baltimore Ravens 27 Cleveland Browns 6 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO)

Pick against spread: Baltimore -12 (-105) 2 units

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Week 3 NFL Picks Results

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks

Week 3 Results

ATS: 6-9-1 -2 units/-$395

SU: 5-11

Upset Picks: 2-4 -380

Over/Under: 1-0 +100

Total: -$675

Public Results ATS*: 6-9 -13 units

2012 results to date

ATS: 22-23-3 -7 units/-$1205

SU: 25-23

Upset Picks: 9-11 +$75

Over/Under: 1-0 +100

Total: -$1030

Survivor: 1-2 (HOU, NE, NO)

Public Results ATS*: 20-27-1 -26 units

*I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public win, if not, it’s a public loss. If a team that has 50-59% of the action on it covers, the public gets “one unit,” if they don’t cover, they lose one unit, 60-69% is 2, 70-79% is 3, etc.

Houston Texans: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Texans

Last week: 2 (+1)

Record: 3-0

I’ve poked holes in pretty much every other team in the league. I can’t do that with this team. They are without a flaw. Winning in Denver in the high altitude against a talented team and a no huddle offense is damn impressive and 3 games into the season, this is the Super Bowl favorite and the most complete team in the league. Actually, I kind of lied. You can poke two holes in this team. Can they stay healthy? And can Matt Schaub win it all on his first career trip to the postseason? That’s still better than everyone else, however, though there’s a lot left to be determined.

Studs

QB Matt Schaub: 17 of 30 for 290 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 throw aways, 2 hit as throwns, 1 batted pass, 2 drops, 102.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 17 of 31 drop backs (1 sack, 9 of 16, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, 1 throw away, 2 hit as throwns)

C Chris Myers: Did not allow a pressure on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 56 yards on 15 attempts

LT Duane Brown: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 33 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 18 yards on 3 attempts

CB Johnathan Joseph: Allowed 3 catches for 30 yards on 9 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

FS Glover Quin: Allowed 1 catch for 6 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes

LOLB Brooks Reed: 1 sack and 5 quarterback hits on 41 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

LE JJ Watt: 3 sacks and 3 quarterback hits on 46 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 7 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

RT Derek Newton: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 25 pass block snaps, 3 penalties, run blocked for 10 yards on 3 attempts

RG Antoine Caldwell: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 18 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

CB Kareem Jackson: Allowed 7 catches for 107 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist

CB Brice McCain: 5 catches for 84 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 penalties, 2 solo tackles

ROLB Connor Barwin: Did not record a pressure on 51 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

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