Atlanta Falcons (4-0) at Washington Redskins (2-2)
There’s a reason I saved this one for last. I don’t really have much of a clue. The line is -3 in favor of Atlanta. These two teams have a difference in yards per play differential of .9. Divide that by .15 and add 3 points for Washington for home field advantage and you get that the real line should be…-3 in favor of Atlanta. Meanwhile, there aren’t any prominent trends at play here.
There is one trend that used to be prominent at play here. Since 1989, home dogs coming off a road win are 101-50 ATS against a team coming off a home win. However, since 2002, that trend is just 42-33, meaning from 1989 to 2002, teams in this situation were a ridiculous 59-18, but since then, it’s kind of died down so I don’t really know if that means Washington is going to win.
The public really likes Atlanta, but this line is really small and I don’t know if I’m comfortable picking Washington to win here. This is still a horrible defensive team, as much as they can put points on the board. Meanwhile, the sharps are completely split on this one. I’m going with the home team just because I think last week dealt them a wake up call, their near loss at home to Carolina, and it’s not like this team to sleepwalk through 2 games in a row.
Under Mike Smith, their a whopping 17-3 ATS off a loss and though they did though they didn’t lose last week, it might still have the same effect on this team. For the record, they’re 5-4 ATS off a close win under Mike Smith. I think they’ll win, improve to 5-0, and cover the 3, but if I did zero unit picks, this would be one.
Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Washington covers)
Sharps lean: WAS 7 ATL 9
Atlanta Falcons 31 Washington Redskins 24
Pick against spread: Atlanta -3 (-110) 1 unit