Month: October 2012

Kansas City Chiefs: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs

Last week: 27 (-3)

Record: 1-5

So if Brady Quinn gets knocked out with a concussion, will Chiefs fans cheer that too or how does this work? That’s what you get for cheering Brady Quinn. You get Brady Quinn. Ranked 23rd in yards per play differential heading into the game, the Chiefs now rank 31st and the Buccaneers, who ranked dead last coming in now rank 22nd. The defense’s struggle to contain deep throws has something to do with that, but if Matt Cassel can return and regress to the norm turnover wise, the Chiefs could still be underrated going forward, but that might not be the optimal outcome for Chiefs fans.

This team desperately needs a franchise quarterback and would be much better off if they bottomed out and ended up in a spot where they could obtain either Geno Smith or Matt Barkley. If Chiefs fans can cheer a concussion if it meant Brady Quinn was coming into the game, can’t they cheer their teams continued losing ways if it means a real quarterback was coming to the organization.

Studs

RT Eric Winston: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 22 yards on 2 attempts, 1 penalty

LT Branden Albert: Did not allow a pressure on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 3 attempts

C Ryan Lilja: Did not allow a pressure on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 16 yards on 13 attempts

Duds

QB Brady Quinn: 22 of 38 for 180 yards and 2 interceptions, 1 drop, 2 throw aways, 1 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, pressured on 10 of 40 drop backs (4 of 10, 2 throw aways, 1 hit as thrown, 1 interception)

WR Dwayne Bowe: Caught 6 passes for 39 yards on 8 attempts on 40 pass snaps, 0.3 YAC per catch, 1 interception

CB Stanford Routt: Allowed 4 catches for 154 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 3 solo tackles

FS Kendrick Lewis: Allowed 1 catch for 19 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

MLB Jovan Belcher: Allowed 2 catches for 29 yards on 3 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty, 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes

RE Ropati Pitoitua: Did not record a pressure on 13 pass rush snaps, 1 missed tackle

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Cleveland Browns: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 1-5

The Browns were competitive in each of their first 5 games, playing a fairly tough schedule over that period, and since their near victory in Baltimore in Thursday Night Football, I never felt that they were the worst team in the league, though they ended up being this year’s last winless team. It felt like they were eventually due to actually get a win and they did just that with a home upset of an overrated Cincinnati Bengals team last week. This week, they have a chance to make it two in a row as they go to Indianapolis, who looked awfully shaky last week, getting blown out by a mediocre Jets team last week. I almost considered putting the Browns above a few teams that actually are above them now. Maybe I’ll do that next week if they can win or come come.

Studs

LG John Greco: Did not allow a pressure on 24 pass block snaps, run blocked for 20 yards on 3 attempts

RG Shawn Lauvao: Did not allow a pressure on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

LT Joe Thomas: Did not allow a pressure on 32 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

WR Josh Gordon: Caught 3 passes for 99 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 14.0 YAC per catch

CB Sheldon Brown: Caught 3 passes for 22 yards on 6 attempts, 1 interception, 2 pass deflections, 2 solo tackles

Duds

FB Owen Marecic: Run blocked for 16 yards on 6 attempts, did not catch a pass on 2 attempts, 2 drops

LOLB Craig Robertson: Allowed 7 catches for 124 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops, 4 missed tackles, 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes

DT Billy Winn: Did not record a pressure on 43 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle

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Has Tom Brady lost it?

stevenlourie Patriots

After the Patriots lost to the Seahawks, I tweeted (@stevenlourie) this: “Cue a week long of columns about how Tom Brady has “lost it.” Seattle is a good team, especially at home. This is not surprising.” One of the things I love to talk about when I make picks is overreaction, public overreaction and media overreaction, in order to find teams that have been devalued off of one bad game. I hate putting too much stock into one game.

However, right now I’m writing an article about if Tom Brady has “lost it.” This isn’t an overreaction to one week, however. This is a reaction to a statistic that I figured out after the game that relates to not just this game, but a number of games dating back over 3 or more games. In his last 15 games in which he has held a lead of 10 or fewer heading into the 4th quarter, Tom Brady, formerly known as the most clutch quarterback alive, is 7-8.

Now, you don’t need any other number to know that’s not good, but here it is. The league as a whole since the start of the 2009 season is 320-137. That means the average quarterback when spotted that kind of lead wins at about a 70% clip. Notorious choker Tony Romo is actually 6-4. Not good, but better than the Golden Boy. Philip Rivers, whose epic meltdown on Monday Night Football has taken some of the media off of Tom Brady, is 7-6. Jay Cutler, often a media whipping boy, is 10-3. Peyton Manning is 5-1. Aaron Rodgers is 15-4. Drew Brees is 17-2. Eli Manning is 11-1. Tim Tebow (TEEEEEEEEEBOW) is 2-0. Mark Sanchez is 10-3. Blaine fucking Gabbert is 7-2.

What’s even more depressing for Patriots fans is that Tom Brady used to be golden in these situations. The last 15 games excluded, Tom Brady would be 37-3 in those games in his career. 2 of those 3 losses were postseason games (2006 AFC Championship game against Indianapolis, Super Bowl XVII). In fact, dating back to that infamous loss to the Colts in the 2006 postseason, Tom Brady is just 12-10 in those games, after being 32-1 prior.

I want to add that the Patriots haven’t become a worse team in this time period. Dating back to that Colts loss, Tom Brady is 61-19 as a starter. That’s a 76.3% winning percentage. In between, he’s won 2 MVPs, made 2 Super Bowls, had the first undefeated 16-0 regular season, set the season single record for touchdowns, set the single season record for TD:INT rate, and had a 5000 passing yard season. Prior to that loss, he was 82-25 in his career, a 76.6% winning percentage.

He hasn’t become a worse quarterback overall. The Patriots are probably going to finish with 11 or 12 wins this season and Tom Brady will be among the finalists for a 3rd MVP. He’s on pace for 32 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and 4640 passing yards. He’s still winning the same amount of games as he was before.

The difference is how he is winning those games. More of them have been blowout wins, which is great and should be applauded and celebrated by Patriots fans. However, his inability to nail down wins when taking a close lead into the 4th quarter is troubling. Of his 19 losses since that Indianapolis loss, 10 of them were ones in which he took a lead of 10 or fewer into the 4th quarter. 10 of them are ones that he should be winning. He has an awesome record over the last few seasons, but he should be better.

And before you call me greedy for expecting even more from someone who’s going to be a first ballot Hall-of-Famer, remember this. Tom Brady hasn’t won a Super Bowl since 2004. He’s 4-5 in his last 9 playoff games. Blowing teams out is great in the regular season, but in the postseason, you have to be able to protect small leads heading into the 4th quarter. You’d have to be blind to see not a relationship between his recent inability to protect small leads heading into the 4th quarter and his recent lack of postseason success and Super Bowl victories.

Also note that is a “has Tom Brady lost it?” article not a “Tom Brady has lost it” article. I don’t know if he’s lost it. Quarterbacks should not be defined solely by their win-loss record. It is a team game. In fact, I’d argue that he doesn’t deserve most of the blame, but rather it’s a combination of poor defensive play and overly conservative play calling.

I’ve probably seen most, if not all of these games and I don’t remember once coming away from a game thinking “Tom Brady blew it today.” It’s always been “I hate our defense” or “why we running the ball so much?” But that’s just a hypothesis. That’s the purpose of this article, to test that hypothesis. Here’s what I found.

The Defense Sucks

In those 10 losses, the defense has surrendered a whopping 13.0 points per 4th quarter. On average since 2007, teams surrender 6.2 points per 4th quarter, so we have a defense surrendering more than twice the average. However, since 2007, the defense actually only surrendered 6.2 points per 4th quarter in general. They’ve just been especially bad in those 10 4th quarters. What’s also somewhat promising is that in those 12 wins in this situation, the Patriots’ defense has only surrendered 2.5 points per 4th quarter, which is well above average. Overall, they haven’t been horrific in the 4th quarter. They’ve just had 10 especially bad games that have led to blown leads.

Tom Brady isn’t blameless

Of course, that’s not the only problem. Yes, the Patriots do surrendered 13.0 per in the 4th quarter in those 10 losses, they score 4.3 per. The defense is horrible, but the offense isn’t helping matters. It’s been a complete team meltdown. Since 2007, Brady is completing just 58.9% of his passes for 15 TDs and 10 INTs in the 4th quarter of games within 7 points either way, so it’s not all on the coaching staff running the ball too much. Brady isn’t closing like he used to.

I wish it was only a defensive issue. That can be solved (or worked around) be continuing to be aggressive offensively and assuming that if the other team gets the ball, they’re going to score (and that’s normally true anyway). An entire team issue is something completely different. Maybe Brady hasn’t completely lost it in clutch situations, but it doesn’t look good.

Fortunately, he does so many other things well (61-19 isn’t bad at all), but this is, at the very least, a dark cloud hanging over his head, at most, something that could cost him the chance to ever win a 4th Super Bowl. One positive is that when trailing heading into the 4th quarter since that Indianapolis loss, Tom Brady is 7-9, including 7-6 when trailing by 10 or fewer (which is very strangely almost as good as his record when leading by 10 or fewer in that time period).

Situation Record since Indianapolis loss in 2006 League average in that time period
Leading by more than 10 going into 4th 41-0 97.8%
Leading by 10 or fewer going into 4th 12-10 71.3%
Trailing by 10 or fewer going into 4th 7-6 28.7%
Trailing by more than 10 going into 4th 0-3 2.2%

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Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, 49ers, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (4-2) at San Francisco 49ers (4-2)

On Thursday Night, the rule of thumb is to always take a home favorite. It makes sense. Favorites tend to be proven, veteran teams, or at least in comparison to the road team. Meanwhile, the road team has to travel on a short week, which is an obvious disadvantage, especially for a less proven, less veteran team. Road favorites cover at about a 50% clip because the advantage of being a proven, veteran team on a short week normally cancels out the disadvantage of being a road team on a short week.

This week we have a home favorite and the 49ers are the more, proven veteran team here, even just a year and a half into the Jim Harbaugh era. Home favorites are 45-24 ATS on Thursday Night since 1989, including 18-9 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more. The issue is that both of these trends seem to cancel out when it’s a divisional game. We saw it when Cleveland went to Baltimore (but not when Chicago went to Green Bay). Home divisional favorites are just 17-15 ATS on Thursday Night in the division, including just 8-8 ATS as a favorite of 7 or more. However, because this is an NFC West game, I don’t think that will be as big of a factor.

A rule of thumb in NFC West games is to always pick the home team. NFC West home teams are 38-23 ATS in a divisional game since 2007. Even the 49ers, as good as they were last year, were just 1-2 ATS on the road. This makes sense. NFC West teams tend to be better home teams than road teams in general. In that same time period, no division is better in general at home than the NFC West, which is 103-73 ATS at home.

Even though NFC West games also tend to be lower scoring, home favorites of a touchdown or more also have no problem covering within the division, going 12-3 ATS since 2007. NFC West divisional games also tend to go under the total as the under is 38-23 in divisional games in that same time period. Thursday Night games tend to go under more often than not anyway as the under is 69-51 on Thursday Nights since 1989. When one team is favored by a touchdown or more, it goes under even more frequently, 28-13, so I’m once again putting 1 unit on the under on Thursday night.

It helps San Francisco’s case to cover that their opponent is the Seahawks. They’re the perfect example of this division, great at home, poor on the road. Since 2007, they are 15-29 ATS on the road, 30-14 ATS at home. As road dogs of more than a touchdown, they’re 4-12 ATS. I’ve correctly predicted 5 of their 6 games this year, all for big plays, using pretty much solely that fact, including hits on 3 money line plays as home dogs to Dallas, Green Bay, and New England.

Speaking of that win over New England last week, because it was so “surprising,” it makes them a little overrated right now. Really, that win was not surprising at all, if you know anything about what type of team they are at home, especially as dogs of 3 or more. In those situations, they’re 15-4 ATS since 2007. They’re not a better team than New England. Not only is that win causing them to be slightly overrated right now, it also puts them in a bad spot this week. Road dogs of 7+ are 22-42 ATS off of a home win as dogs. Furthermore, teams are 7-14 ATS on Thursday Night off a win as home dogs, 3-9 ATS off a win as home dogs of 3+.

San Francisco, meanwhile, is in a good spot coming off an upset loss to the New York Giants, although not as good of a spot as the Seahawks’ spot is bad. There’s no real trend that says teams bounce back off of losses, but good, well coached teams always seem to do so. Bill Belichick is 35-19 ATS in that spot since 2000. Mike McCarthy is 21-13 ATS in that spot since 2006. Mike Tomlin is 16-10 ATS in that spot since 2007. Sean Payton is 20-12 ATS in that spot since 2006. Of the current NFL Head Coaches who have won a Super Bowl with their current team, only Tom Coughlin (26-23 ATS) doesn’t have a very impressive ATS record off a loss.

Jim Harbaugh doesn’t have a Super Bowl ring yet, but everything he’s done so far suggests he’ll be in that group someday. He’s already got a fairly impressive resume off a loss, going 5-0 ATS and 5-0 SU. Those 5 straight up wins came by an average of 19.2 points per game. Looking forward to the future, the 49ers are also in a nice spot as home divisional favorites before being road divisional favorites (they go to Arizona next week). Teams are 109-81 ATS in that spot since 1989.

Finally, we’re getting line value with the 49ers. People who read this frequently know I love to go on and on about yards per play differential. Well, I have another metric that I think works well with yards per play differential, which I’ll go to in a second. First, the 49ers still rank 1st in the league in yards per play differential. If you take the difference between Seattle’s yards per play differential (not too shabby at 12th) and San Francisco’s, divide by .15 and add 3 points to San Francisco’s side for home field advantage, you get a line of 11.5, which suggests 4.5 points of line value with the 49ers.

One issue I noticed with using solely this metric, which a lot of bettors do, is it puts too much value on teams that get a lot of big plays, but can’t sustain drives (or conversely, teams that don’t allow a lot of big plays, but can’t get off the field defensively). Think about it. You pass for 30 yards and then gain no yards on your next 3 plays and have to punt. That’s 7.5 yards per play, which is incredibly impressive, but you didn’t sustain a drive. So I’ve essentially created a new statistic called, rate of sustaining drives, not to replace the traditional metric, but to see if any teams are much better in one than the other.

Basically, how I created it is I took first downs and divided it by first downs + turnovers + punts + failed 4th downs. Basically, what it essentially measures is, on any given 1st and 10, how often does a team get another 1st down or sustain the drive. Turnovers (whether traditional or on downs) and punts are obviously failures to achieve 1st and 10. This measures first downs divided by chances at a first down (first downs + failures to achieve 1st and 10).

You can also do this for the defense, how often they can get the opposing team off the field on any given 1st and 10. The statistic is in the form of a percentage and you can subtract the offensive one from the defensive one to get the differential. For example, San Francisco is at +9.9%, while Seattle is at -0.1%. The difference between the percents is 10, divide by 1.5 this time (which conveniently works very well with the numbers) and add 3 points either way for home field and you get a line of San Francisco -10. It’s not exactly the same as the yards per play differential true line result, but it’s similar enough that it confirms we are getting line value with the 49ers.

I rarely take favorites for big plays, but that’s what I’m going to do here, even though there is a slight public lean on San Francisco. Everything I can find, every trend, every metric for determining true line suggests that the 49ers should cover here and win with ease. It’s not a 5 unit pick of the week, but it’s 4 units as long as I can get it at -7. If I decide not to do a 5 unit pick of the week (I have a good one in mind), this will be a co-pick of the week. For the record, I am 8-2 on picks I call pick of the week or co-pick of the week. I’m also putting one unit on the under.

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Seattle covers)

San Francisco 49ers 23 Seattle Seahawks 10

Pick against spread: San Francisco -7 (-110) 4 units

Over/under: Under 37 (-110) 1 unit

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Week 7 Fantasy Football Waiver Claims

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football, 2012 Waiver Claims

RB William Powell (Arizona)

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.4%

In his first extended action since leading the league in rushing during the preseason, William Powell looked great as Arizona’s new lead back with Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams out, rushing for 70 yards on 13 carries. I have no idea why he is owned in so few league as Williams was announced down for the year early this week and LaRod Stephens-Howling is too small to carry a load, but Powell should be owned universally as he’ll be the lead back from here on out.

WR Brandon Gibson (St. Louis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 24.8%

I didn’t list Gibson here last week because I wasn’t sure if Sam Bradford would struggle without several starting offensive linemen and without Danny Amendola. It sure looked like he would after he finished 2 of 9 against Arizona after the Amendola injury. However, Bradford seems much more mature and much better coached this season and has just moved right alone to the next man up in the receiving corps, which is Brandon Gibson. He caught 7 passes for 91 yards against a tough Miami defense.

RB Daryl Richardson (St. Louis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.2%

There’s already been some talk that the Rams will let Steven Jackson void the final year of his deal this offseason and leave if he wants to, so it makes sense that the Rams’ coaching staff would try to see what they have with young Daryl Richardson. Richardson split carries evenly with the veteran Jackson and definitely outplayed him, rushing for 76 yards on 11 carries on what was previously a #1 ranked Miami run defense. Jackson has looked like someone with his age and career usage this year and it definitely wouldn’t surprise me to see Richardson at least continue to get an even split of the carries going forward. He’s worth at least a bench stash.

WR Devery Henderson (New Orleans)

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.6%

My #1 pickup last week, I’m listing him here again because, apparently no one listened to me (or wouldn’t to pick up a player heading into a bye). Henderson is no longer on bye and is coming off an 8 catch, 123 yard, and a touchdown performance week 5. With Lance Moore and Jimmy Graham nursing injuries, Henderson could be Drew Brees’ #2 target this week, which would obviously make him worth a start. He’s worth at least a bench stash and stay tuned for injury news related to the Saints’ other receivers.

RB Montario Hardesty (Cleveland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.4%

Trent Richardson left this week’s game with an injury and should be considered questionable going forward until you hear otherwise. Hardesty, who rushed for 56 yards and a score in his absence on 15 carries, is worth a pickup because he’d start in any game going forward if Richardson couldn’t play.

QB Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M)

Percent owned (ESPN): 5.9%

Tannehill continues to improve as you’d expect out of a raw rookie. Coming off a 185 yard, 2 touchdown performance, Tannehill is worth picking up in deep leagues if you need a bye week filler in the coming weeks.

RB Kendall Hunter (San Francisco)

Percent owned (ESPN): 14.2%

Another repeat from last week, but Hunter is still worth a look in deeper leagues, even though he didn’t have a good week this week (no one on the 49ers did). The 49ers run more than almost anyone in football and even as the backup, Hunter does get a good amount of touches. Besides, lead back Frank Gore is not the most durable player and wore down in the 2nd half of last season, so Hunter could become a bigger part of the offense down the stretch, especially if Gore gets hurt.

TE Brandon Myers (Oakland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.5%

He’s not exciting at all, but Myers is worth a look as a bye week filler in deep leagues. Through 5 games, the nobody tight end has 21 catches for 290 yards. That yardage total actually ranks 8th among tight ends this year, even though he’s already had his bye.

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Week 6 NFL Picks Results

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks

Week 5 Results

ATS: 5-9 -5 units/-$690

SU: 8-6

Upset Picks: 5-2 +$860

Over/Under: 0-1 -$110

Total: +$60

Public Results ATS*: 6-8 -10 units

2012 results to date

ATS: 40-34-3 +13 units/+$215

SU: 54-37

Upset Picks: 18-17 +$1285

Over/Under: 3-1-1 +190

Total: +1690

Survivor: 4-2 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL)

Public Results ATS*: 40-50-1 -35 units

*I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public win, if not, it’s a public loss. If a team that has 50-59% of the action on it covers, the public gets “one unit,” if they don’t cover, they lose one unit, 60-69% is 2, 70-79% is 3, etc.

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Commanders, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (4-1) at Washington Redskins (2-3)

There’s still no line posted for this for some reason, even though Robert Griffin is widely expected to play, but I’m going to do this write up anyway. Last week, the line was Washington -2 for this game, so I’d be surprised if we got anything lower than Washington -1 or PK. Given that Minnesota is probably going to be a dog in this one, I’m probably going to make a big play on Minnesota.

Washington, assuming they are favored here, are favorites after losing as dogs and before being dogs (they go to New York to play the Giants next week). Teams are 53-77 ATS in that spot since 2008. Minnesota, meanwhile, is dogs before being favorites (they host Arizona next week). Teams are 75-44 ATS in that spot since 2011.

We’re also getting line value with the Vikings. The difference between these two teams’ yards per play differentials is .9. If you divide that by .15, you get 6 and add 3 points for home field advantage, you get a “real” line of -3, meaning we’re getting at least 3 points of line value with the Vikings. In fact, I think the Vikings are still underrated.

Unlike surprise teams like St. Louis and Arizona, Minnesota is absolutely for real. They are 5th in the league in yards per play differential. Last year, in the 9 games in which Ponder led the team in passing attempts, the team scored 22.9 points per game. Despite their 3-13 record, they had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6 wins, despite injuries to several key players.

Now Ponder is healthy and improved, behind a better offensive line. The coaching staff is finally using Percy Harvin properly and he’s emerged as one of the better receivers in the league. Meanwhile, their defense is much improved thanks to the return of Antoine Winfield and Chris Cook, as well as young players playing better. After ranking 20th in the league in yards per play allowed last year, their young defense has broken out and now ranks 2nd. They’re for real and this might be one of the last chances we get to get them cheap and with line value.

As long as Washington is favored or this is a pick, this is going to be a significant play on Minnesota. If Minnesota is favored, it’ll be a smaller pick and maybe even a 1 unit pick. For some reason, this line is Minnesota -2.5 in Las Vegas Hilton, which is why the Sharps Lean 12 to 5 in favor of Minnesota, but that would be a 4.5 line movement from last week and I don’t see that happening, especially since Atlanta was just -3 last week. Stay tuned for a final pick. I hope we get an actual line soon.

Public lean: ?

Sharp lean: WAS 12 MIN 5

Final update: This line finally was posted late Saturday Night at even. Unfortunately, there’s no way of knowing the public lean on such short notice, so I can’t fade the public, but I still feel confident in Minnesota, even though it will be for only 2 units instead of 3 because we’ve lost line value. This spread moved 2 points from last week.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against spread: Minnesota PK (-110) 2 units

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Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Packers, Texans

Green Bay Packers (2-3) at Houston Texans (5-0)

I feel pretty much exactly the same way about this one as I did about San Francisco/NY Giants. With the favorite, we are getting line value and the opportunity to fade a public underdog. However, with the dog, we’re getting a team that normally does well in this situation. The difference between these two teams’ yards per play differential is .7. Divide that by .15 and add 3 points for home field advantage and you get a “real” line of Houston -7.5, meaning we’re getting 4 points of line value with the hosts. In spite of that, Green Bay is a public dog because no one believes they’re as bad as their record. As much as I love betting against the public, I especially love betting against public dogs.

I want to talk about the Packers and their surprising 2-3 record. I don’t think they are as bad as their record would suggest. They’ve had bad luck between the replacement officials and the ChuckStrong train. They could be 4-1 right now. I also don’t think they’re as good as the public thinks and nearly as good as they’ve been over the past couple of years. Their major issues are offensively. Their offensive line is a mess. They can’t run the ball and Aaron Rodgers really does seem to miss Greg Jennings, who is out once again for this one. Without the offense they had last year, their defense, which actually has held up alright this year, needs to be relied on more and it’s still not an elite unit capable of that.

However, as I mentioned, we’re getting some good spots with the Packers. Aaron Rodgers is 10-5 ATS in his career as an underdog, including 4-1 ATS as a dog of 3+. He’s 13-9 ATS off a loss, but if you don’t including 2008, his first year as a starter, he’s 9-4 ATS. He’s also 3-0 ATS in his career as a dog off a loss as a favorite. If you include 2006 and 2007, the Packers’ first two years under Mike McCarthy, they are 5-0 ATS in that situation. Meanwhile, teams are 75-44 ATS as dogs before being favorites and the Packers go to St. Louis next week. I also worry about the impact of the loss of Brian Cushing on the Texans’ defense.

This one is actually tougher for me to pick than San Francisco/NY Giants because we aren’t getting as much line value with the hosts, but we’re also getting fewer points with the road team. There’s less of a chance for a cover if the Packers lose. If I did zero unit picks, this would be one, but I’m once again going with the hosts, like I did in San Francisco/NY Giants, for similar reasons. The combination of betting against a public dog and getting significant line value is too much.

The Packers will give this game everything, but so will the Texans, who won’t be sleewalking 2 weeks in a row. In fact, they were probably sleepwalking last week because they were more focused on this benchmark game than the Jets. Teams are 7-14 ATS before playing the Packers since their Super Bowl victory. Finally, I really believe the Packers will be this year’s team that goes from a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs. There’s one every year and it’s hard to believe right now that San Francisco, Baltimore, or New England could be that team. A loss here, dropping them to 2-4 in a loaded NFC, would go a long way towards that end result.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Houston covers)

Sharp lean (15-9 or better in LV Hilton): GB 21 HOU 6

Final update: Sharps like Green Bay, but I’m still not sure.

Houston Texans 24 Green Bay Packers 20

Pick against spread: Houston -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Eagles, Lions

Detroit Lions (1-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-2)

The Detroit Lions sit at 1-3 and have yet to cover a spread. As someone who called them overrated to start the season and subsequently went against them in each of their first 4 games, I’m pretty happy about that. However, right now I think they might be a little bit underrated. They’ve had a lot of injury issues in the first few games and now with Louis Delmas expected to return, they should have their whole defense back, though you can argue that doesn’t matter a ton because they allowed the 10th most points per game in 2011. In 2012, however, they are allowing the 7th most.

In spite of that and their 1-3 record, they do rank 13th in the league in yards per play differential, including 16th in yards per play allowed. How are they 16th in yards per play allowed, but 26th in points per game allowed? Well, there are some factors. One is that one of their games went to overtime, though if you take out points allowed in overtime, they’re still allowing 27.7 points per game (a .75 point per game improvement), which would rank 25th.

Another major issue they’re having is special teams. They allowed 4 kickoff or punt return touchdowns, which is responsible for 7 points per game. Take those out of the picture and they’re actually allowing 20.7 points per game in regulation which would rank 12th in the NFL. Of course, that’s assuming that their opponents would not have scored at all on any of their drives after the kickoff or punt, which is incorrect.

We also need to look at their per drive defensive statistics. Including extra points, the Lions are allowing about 2.1 points per drive this season, so really, those 4 return touchdowns allowed have cost them a total of 19.6 total points or 4.9 points per game. Still, if you take those out of the picture, they are allowing 22.8 points per game in regulation, which would be 18th. However, they’ve also allowed 2 touchdowns on a pick six and a fumble recovery touchdown, which, using the same method as above, allows an extra 2.4 points per game, which leaves their defense responsible for 20.4 points per game, which would be tied for 11th. This is all very “crude” math. Other things are at play like field position, but you get the idea. Their defense hasn’t been nearly as bad as the points per game would suggest.

Now the question is, will they continue to allow so many non-defensive touchdowns? Well the two touchdowns off of turnovers have gone on just 6 giveaways. That’s one per every 3 turnovers. Average is one per every 12 turnovers and the numbers suggest it’s more luck than skill if your opponent returns a takeaway for 6, depending on things like where on the field the turnover takes place and how many players (on each side) are in the area.

But how about their special teams issues? Well, it’s really tough to say that’s not skill, but it’s probably not as hard of a fix as say fixing a bad pass rush or something. Plus, let’s say they continue to be horrific on special teams and break the NFL record for both kickoff return touchdowns allowed and punt return touchdowns allowed. Did you know how many that would be? 5. Yes, if they allowed 3 kickoff returns for touchdown and 3 punt returns for touchdown the rest of the way, they will hold both records.

Even if they did that, that would still be just .5 special teams touchdowns allowed per game, an improvement of .5 special teams touchdowns allowed per game over their first 4 games, meaning they can be the worst special teams team ever and still see a 100% improvement in that area going forward. If they simply tie both records of futility, that would be .33 special teams touchdowns allowed per game going forward, a 200% improvement.

So all things the same, they should see a noticeable improvement in points per game allowed going forward. However, all things aren’t really the same. They’ve faced a pretty easy slate of opposing offenses so far, St. Louis, San Francisco, Tennessee, and Minnesota. In fact, Philadelphia this week might be the toughest offense they’ve faced so far. I think we should expect them to allow somewhere around the 24.2 points per game they allowed last year. They’re still not a good defensive team.

Meanwhile, while they haven’t faced tough offenses, they have faced some tough defenses. With the exception of Tennessee, who really isn’t doing anything right, everyone they’ve faced this year is playing tough defense. Their offense is just 13th in the league in yards per play. Unfortunately for them this week, Philadelphia ranks 7th in opponent’s yards per play (San Francisco is 3rd, Minnesota is 2nd, and St. Louis is 11th), so they have another tough test, but going forward, we should see an offensive improvement.

And that takes me to another underrated team, the Philadelphia Eagles. They’re another team whose yards per play differential is much better than their record and points differential as they rank 8th in this category. The reason for that takes a much shorter explanation than Detroit’s. The issue is, unsurprisingly to anyone following the league this year, their turnover differential. They rank tied for last in the NFC with a turnover differential of -7.

However, turnover differentials tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. If you look at every possible turnover differential that a team can have, teams in each group tend to average a turnover differential of about +0.0 the following week, no matter how good or bad they were in this area the following week. You can see more, here. That’s why I prefer to use yards per play differential. It’s not perfect, but it doesn’t take into account something that’s incredibly inconsistent on a week to week basis.

So both teams are underrated, but which one do I like? Well, a week ago, I probably would have said Detroit as this line was -6 and Philadelphia’s game all seem to be close, with the exception of that game in Arizona. However, since then, this line has moved to -3.5, a complete overreaction considering the Eagles didn’t look all that bad last week (they covered the spread) and the Lions didn’t play. For the record, the real line here is Philadelphia -5.5, so we’re getting line value with the Eagles now.

The line has also done a good deal of moving this week, as Detroit is a publicly backed underdog, which is driving the line down. I like betting against publicly backed underdogs and getting line value, so it’s a very small play on the hosts. I don’t have a good feel for this one though and it would be a zero unit play if I did those.

Public lean: Detroit (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Sharps lean (15-9 or better in LV Hilton): DET 24 PHI 8

Final update: Sharps like Detroit, but I’m still unsure.

Philadelphia Eagles 28 Detroit Lions 24

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

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