Arizona Cardinals (4-0) at St. Louis Rams (2-2)
I was going to call the Cardinals the worst 4-0 team ever, but then I remembered the 2009 Broncos. The 2009 Broncos, much like the Cardinals this year, were one of my preseason picks to be among the worst in the league. After the Broncos started 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 etc, I started calling them the worst 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, etc team ever because of how they were winning. I got some negative comments and hate mail for that. The Broncos started 6-0 that year and ended the season 8-8, proving their start was a fluke. The Cardinals could see something similar happen.
So many things point to this being a fluke. One, Larry Fitzgerald is their only good offensive player. If numbers are more your thing, this team ranks tied for 27th in the league in yards per play differential. They’ve won 3 games by 3 or fewer points, giving them only a +30 points differential. Contrary to popular belief, winning close games does even out over time.
This team is 10-1 in their last 11 games decided by a touchdown or fewer. Before that, they were 2-8 in their last 10, with essentially the same group of guys. Teams that win more than 67% of their close games win about 50% of those types of games the following season and the same is true midseason. Teams that win a game by 7 points or less are 586-541 (52.0%) since 1989 in their following game if that game is also decided by a touchdown or less. The only exception, historically, has proven to be an elite quarterback, but the Cardinals don’t have that.
Eventually, this team will even out at around .500. I started riding the correction with this team last week and nailed one of my co-picks of the week (actually I nailed all 3) and I’m going to continue that going forward. Last week I mentioned a trend that teams are 7-12 ATS as a favorite after winning 3 straight as dogs. Well, how do those teams do the following week? Those teams are 5-14 ATS the following week, 2-6 ATS as favorites. It’s a big dynamic switch and it doesn’t affect them just once.
The Cardinals struggled with that last week and should continue to struggle with it this week. One other thing they struggled with last week was defensive line play without Darnell Dockett. He’s expected to be out this week too. Defense is their calling card so his absence is predictably huge. I mentioned the Cardinals’ 27th ranked yards per play differential. The Cardinals lost that battle 6.5 to 4.2 to the lowly Dolphins at home last week and only won because they were able to recover all 6 fumbles that hit the ground. Recovering fumbles on the ground is much more luck than skill.
Now onto the Rams, they’re not great, but they beat a similar team last week, the Seattle Seahawks. I nailed that one too, another one of my co-picks of the week. The Seahawks are known for being a much worse road team than home team, but the NFC West is more or less like this as a whole, especially in the division. Since 2007, home teams are 37-23 ATS in NFC West divisional games. Even the 2011 49ers, who were the best single team this division has seen in that time period, went 1-2 on the road last year, losing in Arizona, winning but failing to cover as large favorites in St. Louis, and then barely coming away with a 2 point win in Seattle (the line was -1.5). St. Louis is a good home team anyway, going 5-3 at home in 2010, the last time they were a respectable team (which I think they are again). This year, they’re 2-0 at home, winning twice as home dogs.
The Cardinals are at a disadvantage traveling on a short week too. Thursday Home teams are 66-48 ATS since 1989. Now, they are 20-23 ATS as dogs and I fell into this trap with Carolina 2 weeks ago (although Carolina eventually became a small favorite with line movement). Veteran, experienced teams, who are normally favored, do seem to have the edge in this game and that edge cancels out the short travel week. However, it’s tough to call the Cardinals that since they have one of the younger rosters in the NFL. St. Louis has the advantage on a short week here, especially with Arizona coming off an overtime game. Teams coming off an overtime game are predictably exhausted the next week, so it’s tough to be 100% for a Thursday Night game. Teams are 3-13 ATS in this situation since 1989, 1-10 ATS on the road.
We’re also getting good line value with the Rams. I mentioned the Cardinals’ 27th ranked yards per play differential several times (even worse last week), they’re at -0.7, which is the same as the Rams. An old gambling formula says to take the difference between two teams’ yards per play differentials and add 3 either way for homefield advantage. That suggests the Rams should be -3 here, not +1.5. In spite of that, the public loves Arizona this week. I love fading the public as often as I can. The odds makers are rich for a reason. The public always loses so they’re never a bad group to disagree with.
Given everything, this is one of my biggest plays of the week. Arizona is a very overrated team, especially likely without Darnell Dockett. They’re in a tough spot coming off an overtime game and then having to travel for a short week and play a team that just played a home game and didn’t have to go anywhere. NFC West divisional games tend to see the home team cover anyway. Instead of putting 4 units on the spread and 1 unit on the money line, I’m putting all 5 on the money line. 1 point games are rare, about 2% of the time, and it’s not worth the extra 15 cents to be protected against something that would hurt me 1% of the time. I’m also putting 1 unit on the under. Neither of these teams are offensive teams anyway and the under is 68-50 on Thursdays since 1989.
Public lean: Arizona (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if St. Louis covers)
St. Louis Rams 17 Arizona Cardinals 10 Upset Pick +105 5 units
Pick against spread: St. Louis +1.5 (-110) 0 units
Over/under: Under 39 1 unit
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