Month: October 2012

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Colts, Titans

Indianapolis Colts (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (3-4)

The winner of this game between the Colts and Titans will either be over .500 or at .500 and well in contention for a playoff spot in the AFC. I told you the AFC sucks. The Titans, however, will be hurt in this quest to do so this week by an injury that isn’t getting a lot of attention. Titans’ left tackle Michael Roos had an appendectomy this week and is very unlikely to play.

The casual bettor doesn’t know who he is most likely, which is why this line hasn’t accounted for that loss, but his absence will be huge. Roos is one of the best left tackles in the league. He has been for years and he’s once again playing like it this year, allowing just 2 sacks, 3 quarterback hit, and 10 quarterback hurries, while committing 4 penalties. He’s ProFootballFocus’ 9th ranked offensive tackle. On an offensive line that is generally playing poorly this season, his absence is going to be huge.

Indianapolis, meanwhile, is moving in the opposite direction injury wise, finally. They’ve already had the most defensive injuries in the league this year, aside from the Redskins and maybe the Jets. Dwight Freeney went down early week 1. He’s back and playing well. Pat Angerer missed the first 5 games of the season and was a rotational player last week. He’ll start this week. Vontae Davis, who missed several games, is back. Cory Redding, whose missed the last game and a half, will play this week.

Robert Mathis has yet to practice, but they haven’t ruled him out and in his absence, 2010 1st round pick Jerry Hughes has been quietly playing very well. On a defense that is generally devoid of talent, they’ve had pretty much every single one of their solid players miss time this year, except for Antoine Bethea and maybe Jerraud Powers.

They won’t be a good defense or anything now that they’re all healthy, but they’ll be much more respectable. Right now, they rank 20th against the pass, 28th against the run, and 24th in scoring, while forcing just 3 takeaways, by far worst in the league. That number should increase now that everyone is healthy. It normally evens out over time anyway. They are -9 in turnover differential right now, but all teams team to average the same turnover differential on a weekly basis regardless of what their previous turnover differential was. For more on that, click here.

Tennessee also can’t stop anyone and it’s not because of injuries. They rank 26th against the pass, 22nd against the run, allow a league worst 34.0 points per game, and just made Ryan Fitzpatrick look like a franchise quarterback. They’re horrendous. They may be 3-4, but those 3 wins have come by a combined 7 points against a Pittsburgh team that sucks on the road and who lost to Oakland, the Bills, and the Lions (doesn’t look as good now as it did then).

Meanwhile, their 4 losses have come by a combined 96 points, leading to them having the league’s worst points differential at -89, worse than Jacksonville, worse than Cleveland, worse than Kansas City, worse than Carolina, worse than Oakland, you name it. The Colts aren’t going so well in that department either, at -41 despite their 3-3 record, but that’s not as bad and injuries can be to blame. There’s no way Tennessee deserves to be more than a field goal favorites here, especially given these two team’s injury situations.

These two teams are even in yards per play differential, which translates to a real line of -3 (3 points for home field advantage) using that method. However, Indianapolis ranks 18th in rate of sustaining drives differential, while Tennessee ranks 30th. Indianapolis is at -1.4% and Tennessee is at -11.0%. If you take the difference and divide by 1.5 and add 3 points for home field, you get that this line should be Indianapolis -3.5. Either way, getting more than a field goal with the Colts in this game is ridiculous.

The trends also work against Tennessee. Indianapolis is in a good spot as dogs before being favorites as teams are 84-46 ATS in this spot since 2011. They host the Dolphins next week. Meanwhile, Tennessee is favorites off of back-to-back wins as dogs by a touchdown or less. Teams are 15-23 ATS in this spot since 1989. It makes sense. Favorites tend to be overconfident and overvalued and maybe even exhausted off of two straight close wins as dogs. Meanwhile, home favorites off a win of 1-3 as road dogs are 24-46 ATS since 2002. Tennessee won by 1 in Buffalo last week.

I’ve said in past picks this week that I’d be reckless to pick a public dog this week, with one exception, because the odds makers will want the gap between favorites and dogs to close (dogs are 63-39 ATS this year and neither dogs or favorites have finished 10 games or more above .500 in at least the last 10 years), but they’ll also want to win money, as usual. Favorites that are not publicly backed kill two birds with one stone for the odds makers and given how rich these guys always end up, you don’t want to be one of those birds. I said the only exception was Washington, for a small play, because I loved them in that spot.

That being said, I lied, sort of. When I first made this pick, there wasn’t a significant lean either way (the odds makers always win when there’s no significant lean because of the juice). Right now, there’s a slight lean on Indianapolis. It’s really slight and I still really like Indianapolis this week for a significant play, but I do final updates on Saturday and if the lean still remains or becomes more significant, I might drop down to 2 units. For now though, I really like Indianapolis this week as the better, healthier team in the better spot.

Public lean: Indianapolis (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Sharps lean: IND 15 TEN 8

Final update: Another big play matching up with a sharps lean. Good sign. Still a slight public lean on Indianapolis, but I’m not going to be dropping any units. The public lean didn’t increase.

Indianapolis Colts 31 Tennessee Titans 24 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +3.5 (-110) 3 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Washington Redskins at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Colts, Titans

Washington Redskins (3-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3)

In a couple other of my picks this week, I said it would be reckless to pick a heavily public backed dog this week with one exception. Dogs are 63-39 ATS on the season. You might think, that’s a reason to take the dog, but eventually that’s going to even out. Dating back over the last decade, dogs or favorites have not finished more than 10 games over .500 over the course of an entire year. It’s smart to ride the correction going forward and take more favorites than dogs, particularly favorites that are not publicly backed because those teams covering would have a double benefit for odds makers. It would allow the dogs/favorites disparity to even out and also they’d make money.

I tried to pick as many favorites as I could last week. I just didn’t like a lot of them. This week, I do like a lot more, so I’ll pick more favorites this week. Last week, favorites were 7-6 ATS, which looks like the start of a correction. It might not look like it totally, but remember, favorites were 12-1 SU. 5 of those covers were backdoor, including two ridiculous ones: Jim Harbaugh declining a safety on Thursday Night and the Lions driving for a backdoor cover with 30 seconds left on Monday Night against a 6.5 point spread when they hadn’t scored all night (both went against me on two instances I actually did pick favorites).

Well, this game is that one exception and it’s only because there is so much working for Washington in this one. For starters, they’ve been awfully unlucky this season. All 4 of their losses have come by a touchdown or less and 3 in three of them the Redskins had a significant contributor go down with injury who is now healthy. Against St. Louis, they lost top cornerback Josh Wilson. Against Washington, they lost top offensive lineman Trent Williams. Against Atlanta, they lost quarterback Robert Griffin.

All 3 of those guys are healthy now. They’re also missing several other players with injury like Brian Orakpo, Adam Carriker, Fred Davis, Jammal Brown, and Pierre Garcon, but they’ve played pretty well without those 4 all season. This week, they could be without London Fletcher for the first time in forever, but their defense isn’t the reason they’re playing well. They’re already allowing 28.6 points per game.

They also are expected to finally get Brandon Meriweather back from injury, which will help their horrific safety corps. They should be able to keep this one close even if they lose. So I like that we’re getting more than 4 points with them, even though both measures of real line suggest there’s no real line value either way as both calculate a real line of Pittsburgh -5.

2 big trends are in Washington’s favor too. Road dogs off of a road loss are 93-58 ATS since 2007 and Washington lost in New York last week. Meanwhile, dogs before being favorites are 84-46 ATS since 2011. Washington hosts Carolina next week. On top of those two trends, the NFC is clearly the superior conference right now. They are 19-9 in head-to-head competition with the AFC, including 17-11 ATS and 7-0 ATS as dogs. Pittsburgh isn’t playing like their normal selves right now so they don’t deserve to be more than 3 point favorites over any average or better team from the NFC.

Speaking of the Steelers not playing like their normal selves right now, a lot of that has to do with Troy Polamalu’s absence. Since 2009, the Steelers are 8-9 in games without Troy Polamalu and allow 21.4 points per game. With him, they are 27-8, allowing 14.4 points per game. He’s already been ruled out for this week. Much is being made about the Steelers’ win over the Bengals in Cincinnati as a reason for why they are “back,” but I’m not very impressed with a 7 point win over a Bengals team that’s lost 3 straight, including to the Browns. The Bengals have never beaten a playoff team in the Andy Dalton era and this year, they’ve only beaten the Browns, Jaguars, and these Bengals (in that game that Williams got hurt).

They’ll still an average team, maybe slightly better until Polamalu returns. They’re also expected to be without right tackle Marcus Gilbert again, which hurts because replacement Mike Adams has really struggled. Both backs Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman could be out again and replacement Jonathan Dwyer has been really up and down this year. I hate betting on a heavily public dog in general, especially this week, which is why it’s a small play, but I like the Redskins.

Public lean: Washington (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Pittsburgh covers)

Sharps lean: WAS 14 PIT 8

Final update: No change.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Washington Redskins 24

Pick against spread: Washington +4.5 (-110) 2 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cardinals

San Francisco 49ers (5-2) at Arizona Cardinals (4-3)

In NFC West matchups, the rule of thumb is to pick the home team. Since 2007, no other division comes close to covering at home at a rate as high as the NFC West, which is 103-74 ATS at in that time period. San Francisco, St. Louis, Seattle, and Arizona are all teams that are good at home and bad on the road generally. Given that, it makes sense that inside the division, the home team generally covers in NFC West divisional contests and that’s exactly what happens.

In that same time period, the home team in an NFC West divisional matchup covers at a record of 38-24 ATS. As well as the 49ers played last year, they still managed to go 1-2 ATS on the road in the division, 0-2-1 ATS depending on the lines (some had Seattle +2 rather than +1.5). They lost straight up in Arizona, beat St. Louis by just a touchdown, and beat Seattle by just 2, all of which were games they were favored in. There’s not a lot of data on this type of situation, but home dogs of 7+ in the NFC West have covered 2 of the 3 instances in that time period. Home dogs of 7+ cover at a high rate anyway, regardless, going 99-78 ATS since 2002.

Besides, the Cardinals tend to play a lot of close games anyway. This makes sense because they have a good defense, as much as their offense struggles. Dating back to last year, they’ve only lost 4 games by more than 7, out of 11 total losses, including only once at home, 32-20 to the Steelers. This week’s game is even more likely to be close because the 49ers are a more defensive oriented team as well. Some places have this line at 6.5 (-110), but pay extra for the +7 if you can because you might need it. +7 is at -120 right now.

Besides, this spread seems a little weird. Last week, San Francisco was anywhere from -7 to -8.5 at home for Seattle and they didn’t even cover, winning by just 7. Now they’re -7 in Arizona? Arizona beat Seattle and both teams have the same record. I’ll agree that Seattle is the better team right now, but 6 points better? I don’t agree with that, especially considering the home/road disparity in NFC divisional games.

Meanwhile, Arizona was +7 in Minnesota and pushed and now they’re +7 at home for San Francisco? Minnesota beat San Francisco and has the same record as them. Once again, I’ll agree the 49ers are the better team, but 6 points better? I don’t agree with that. Neither do the measures for calculating line value either. The yards per play differential method gives us a line of San Francisco -9.5 and the rate of sustaining drives method gives of a line of San Francisco -3. If you average those two out, you get lower than -7 and that’s not even taking into account that Alex Smith isn’t playing well right now and that they’re unlikely to continue rushing for 5.9 YPC, because no one does that. That’s the main reason behind their #1 ranking in yards per play.

Plus, just look at the spread last year. San Francisco was 10-2 and Arizona was 5-7 and the spread was just 3 and the Cardinals still covered and won. The 49ers aren’t as good of a team as they were last year because they aren’t winning the turnover battle like they were last year. This line is ridiculous. Normally I’d think this line was too good to be true, but the public likes San Francisco and the line still isn’t moving.

I know I mentioned early this week that I think favorites will have a good week this week, in order to help bring the dogs/favorites record eventually to within 10 games of .500, which it’s been in each of the last 10 years at least (right now it’s at 63-39 in favor of dogs). That doesn’t mean dogs should not be bet at all. It’s perfectly fine to take a dog if the favorite is publicly backed like the 49ers are this week. I really like Arizona this week. I also like the under this week. This should be a close, low scoring game between two of the top-4 scoring defenses in the league. Besides, the under hits at a record of 78-46 in NFC West divisional games since 2007.

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Arizona covers)

Sharps lean: ARZ 12 SF 6

Final update: Line in Las Vegas Hilton is 6.5, but still the lean is on Arizona. I really like Arizona at +7. Pay extra for the extra half point if you can. If you can’t, it’s a smaller play.

San Francisco 49ers 16 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Arizona +7 (-120) 4 units

Total: Under 38 (-110) 1 unit

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Eagles, Falcons

Atlanta Falcons (6-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-3)

The Falcons are 6-0 and they’re underdogs. Easy money right? That seems to be what the public thinks as most of the action is on the undefeated dog. However, that’s not necessarily always the case with undefeated dogs. Believe it or not, there’s no trend associated with undefeated teams as dogs this late in the season. Undefeated dogs after week 7 are 3-2 ATS, after week 6 are 3-3 ATS, and after week 5 are 7-7 ATS. The odds makers don’t make it that easy on you.

The reason that Atlanta is a dog this week is because in all his years as Head Coach of the Eagles, Andy Reid has never lost off a regular season bye. He’s a perfect 14-0 straight up, including 11-3 ATS. If we expand that to the playoffs, he’s 14-4 ATS and 17-1 SU with that one loss coming in the Super Bowl to the Patriots. Last year, when they finished 8-8, they blew out the Cowboys 34-7 after their bye, despite having a 2-4 record coming in. That was their biggest victory of the season. I don’t know what the hell Andy Reid does during a bye, but whatever it is, it works. Whether you like the Eagles or not, you have to agree if they ever can get their act together and play like their talent level, they’d be a dangerous team. Well, this week, that should be the case.

Besides, while the Falcons are 6-0, they aren’t exactly playing well of late. They’ve won their last 3 games by a combined 12 points against teams that are a combined 6-13 on the year and they could have lost each of them had one or two things gone a different way. Against Carolina, the Panthers led into the late 4th quarter, but botched their end game badly. Against Washington, the Redskins were even with the Falcons until Robert Griffin got hurt. He was replaced by 4th round rookie Kirk Cousins, who promptly throw 2 interceptions. The Redskins also missed a very makeable field goal in that game. Against Oakland, Carson Palmer threw an unnecessary late pick six in a 3 point Falcons win.

Besides, it’s not like they’ve played a tough schedule or anything. They have the league’s worst strength of schedule. The two toughest teams they’ve faced are Denver and San Diego and the Denver game was in Atlanta. Philadelphia is probably the toughest road team they’ve faced thus far this year, even not off a bye. Besides, it’s supposed to be wet and rainy in Philadelphia this weekend and the Falcons have never proven to be a good team outside in the elements in the Matt Ryan era. I don’t expect that to change now that they’re become a more pass reliant team.

Easy schedule aside, Atlanta is still not playing as well as their record. They rank just 6th in the league in rate of sustaining drives differential at 7.5% and 21st in the league in yards per play differential with a -0.3. The reason for this, aside from some close games, has been their reliance on turnovers. They rank 3rd in the league with a +10 turnover differential. However, historically, turnover differentials average out to be the same on a weekly basis regardless of what your previous turnover differential was. It’s not something you can rely on week in and week out to win you games. They almost lost at home to Oakland because they lost the turnover battle. For more on that, click here.

Philadelphia is in the opposite situation. Because of their -9 turnover differential, tied for 2nd worst in the league, they actually rank better in yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives than their record would suggest, ranking 13th in yards per play differential and 11th in rate of sustaining drives differential, despite a .500 record.

We can use these two stats to calculate a real line. The real line with the points per play differential method is Philadelphia -6.5, while the rate of sustaining drives method suggests this should be a pick em. I like to use both because one overestimates teams that get a lot of big plays (or allow a lot of big plays) and the other underestimates those teams, but using those methods, at the very least, this line doesn’t seem so ridiculous, not even taking Andy Reid’s record off a bye into account. At the most, we may actually have some line value with the Eagles so long as the line remains below 3.

Each team has a prominent trend working for them. Teams off a close home loss (1-3 points) as favorites are 84-64 ATS the following week since 2002. That works for Philadelphia and it’s even stronger off a bye, 17-5 ATS since 1989. The Falcons, meanwhile, are dogs before being favorites, a situation teams are 84-46 ATS in since 2011. Teams tend to be extra focused in that situation, but the Eagles will also be extra focused off a bye.

Besides, I think it would be reckless to pick a publicly backed underdog this week. Dogs are 63-39 ATS on the season. You might think, that’s a reason to take the dog, but eventually that’s going to even out. Dating back over the last decade, dogs or favorites have not finished more than 10 games over .500 over the course of an entire year. It’s smart to ride the correction going forward and take more favorites than dogs, particularly favorites that are not publicly backed because those teams covering would have a double benefit for odds makers. It would allow the dogs/favorites disparity to even out and also they’d make money. I think you’d have to be crazy this week to take a public dog (with one possible exception, which I’ll get into later this week).

I tried to pick as many favorites as I could last week. I just didn’t like a lot of them. This week, I do like a lot more, so I’ll pick more favorites this week. Last week, favorites were 7-6 ATS, which looks like the start of a correction. It might not look like it totally, but remember, favorites were 12-1 SU. 5 of those covers were backdoor, including two ridiculous ones: Jim Harbaugh declining a safety on Thursday Night and the Lions driving for a backdoor cover with 30 seconds left on Monday Night against a 6.5 point spread when they hadn’t scored all night (both went against me on two instances I actually did pick favorites).

You can follow the odds makers’ thought process here. They want favorites to cover, but know the public generally bets favorites and they still want to make money. However, they know if they make a 6-0 team like the Falcons a dog, people are going to go for that because “they’re undefeated and all they have to do is win,” but the odds makers also know how good Reid is off a bye so they’re confident they can get their money while a favorite still simultaneously wins. It’s a trap line. I love the Eagles this week. As long as this line is lower than 3, it’s a pick of the week. It might be a close game, but I’m very confident they will win. For the record, I’m 10-3-1 ATS on picks of the week and co-picks of the week this year.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Sharps lean: PHI 29 ATL 5

Final update: In total agreement here. Always a good sign. In general, my big plays have matched up with the sharps.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Atlanta Falcons 24

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -2 (-110) 5 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Chicago Bears: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

I’m keeping Chicago as my #1 team for all the reasons I listed last week. With the exception of the Thursday Night loss to Green Bay, the Bears have looked great this season, 4 of 5 games by 16 or more. While you can’t completely ignore what happened on Thursday Night Football, it’s unreasonable to put too much stock into one game when a team has had 3 days to prepare on the road.

In their other 4 games, with the exception of Jacksonville, who they destroyed in Jacksonville in a potential trap game, they’ve played good opponents. Dallas should be a playoff contender right until the very end. They beat them by 16 in Dallas. Blowout wins over Indianapolis and St. Louis didn’t look impressive at the time, but now they do. They also beat Detroit in a game that was a lot more lopsided than the 13-7 final score. Jay Cutler is now 10-1 in his last 11 games, including 22-10 dating back to 2010, including the 2 postseason games that year. They certainly didn’t do anything to lose this spot last week in a still wide open league.

Studs

LT J’Marcus Webb: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 3 attempts

CB Charles Tillman: Allowed 7 catches for 50 yards on 12 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 7 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 penalty

ROLB Lance Briggs: Allowed 1 catch for 2 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 3 assists

SS Major Wright: Did not allow a catch on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes

DT Henry Melton: 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 37 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

Studs

C Roberto Garza: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 42 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

RG Lance Louis: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 42 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 4 yards on 4 attempts

WR Devin Hester: Caught 3 passes for 38 yards on 6 attempts on 41 pass snaps, 11.3 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 punt return for 5 yards

TE Kellen Davis: Caught 1 pass for 3 yards on 2 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

DT Amobi Okoye: Did not record a pressure on 22 pass rush snaps, no tackles

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Houston Texans: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Texans

Last week: 2 (+0)

Record: 6-1

I thought about moving Houston back up into the #1 spot, but let’s see how good the Ravens actually are first. If they’re as bad as the Texans made them look, then that’s not as impressive of a win and the Texans’ struggles with the only good NFC team they’ve faced is troubling. The NFC is by far the better conference and while Houston looks to be by far the best team in the AFC, they’ll have to beat an NFC team to win the Super Bowl.

Studs

QB Matt Schaub: 23 of 37 for 256 yards and 2 touchdowns, 3 drops, 2 batted passes, 1 throw away, 99.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 15 of 39 drop backs (2 sacks, 7 of 13, 1 touchdown, 1 drop, 1 throw away)

WR Andre Johnson: Caught 9 passes for 86 yards on 9 attempts on 37 pass snaps, 2.1 YAC per catch

FS Glover Quin: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 batted passes, allowed 3 catches for 19 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 interception

LE JJ Watt: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 47 pass rush snaps, 2 batted passes, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops

ROLB Connor Barwin: 1 sack, 3 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 39 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops

ROLB Whitney Mercilus: 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 14 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 stop

P Donnie Jones: 5 punts for 240 yards, 2 inside 20, 1 return for 1 yard, 47.8 net yards per punt

Duds

MLB Bradie James: 1 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle, allowed 2 catches for 12 yards on 3 attempts

LOLB Brooks Reed: 1 quarterback hurry on 28 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New England Patriots: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots

Last week: 5 (+1)

Record: 4-3

The Patriots certainly aren’t playing like the 4th best team in the league right now, but they still should be able to get one of the 4 first round byes. Baltimore looked way worse than the Patriots did last week and that was really their only competition from the #2 seed because Houston because they’re one of just 3 teams in the whole AFC with more than 3 wins.

Besides, look at the Patriots’ schedule the rest of the way: St. Louis in London, vs. Buffalo, vs. Indianapolis, @ NY Jets, @ Miami, vs. Houston, vs. San Francisco, @ Jacksonville, vs. Miami. In the last 2 years, they’ve started slow before going on a run and ripping off wins (10 straight last year before the Super Bowl and 8 straight in 2011 before the loss to the Jets in the playoffs). That could definitely happen this year for a team that has finished the tough part of their schedule and still feels like they haven’t played their best football.

Studs

QB Tom Brady: 26 of 42 for 259 yards and 2 touchdowns, 5 drops, 2 throw aways, 99.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 43 drop backs (1 sack, 3 of 11, 1 touchdown, 2 throw aways, 2 drops)

LOLB Jerod Mayo: 12 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 4 blitzes, allowed 4 catches for 36 yards on 5 attempts

MLB Brandon Spikes: 11 solo tackles, 8 stops, 1 penalty, allowed 3 catches for 24 yards on 4 attempts

LE Jermaine Cunningham: 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

Duds

WR Brandon Lloyd: Caught 1 pass for 7 yards on 6 attempts on 41 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 1 penalty

RE Chandler Jones: 2 quarterback hurries on 49 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

DT Vince Wilfork: Did not record a pressure on 38 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Giants: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Giants

Last week: 6 (+1)

Record: 5-2

Under Tom Coughlin, the Giants are 52-19 in the first 8 games of a season and 27-37 in their final 8. Their schedule this year suggests a similar thing could happen this year. After going to Dallas this week, the Giants host Pittsburgh, go to Cincinnati, go on a bye, host Green Bay, go to Washington, host New Orleans, go to Atlanta, go to Baltimore, and host Philadelphia. That being said, the Giants seem to be at their best after a rough stretch so if they struggle down the stretch and still sneak into the playoffs, like last year and in 2007, look out.

Studs

WR Victor Cruz: Caught 7 passes for 131 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts on 44 pass snaps, 9.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

TE Martellus Bennett: Caught 5 passes for 79 yards on 7 attempts on 39 pass snaps, 3.4 YAC per catch

Duds

C David Baas: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 24 yards on 4 attempts

MLB Chase Blackburn: Allowed 4 catches for 65 yards on 4 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Francisco 49ers: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers

Last week: 7 (+1)

Record: 5-2

San Francisco would be lower if there were more good teams this year. I don’t trust Alex Smith and apparently neither does his coaching staff right now because all he’s doing is checking down. I also don’t expect this running game to continue to average 5.9 yards per carry because, you know, no one does that. That being said, if they were in the AFC, they’d probably be the 2nd best team in there. It’s not a very good conference. Unfortunately, since they’re in the NFC, we rule them out to be this year’s team to goes from a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs.

Studs

RB Frank Gore: Rushed for 131 yards (42 after contact) on 16 carries, 2 broken tackles, caught 5 passes for 51 yards on 5 attempts

LG Mike Iupati: Did not allow a pressure on 27 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 2 attempts

C Jonathan Goodwin: Did not allow a pressure on 27 pass block snaps, run blocked for 98 yards on 8 attempts

RG Alex Boone: Did not allow a pressure on 27 pass block snaps, run blocked for 16 yards on 2 attempts

CB Carlos Rogers: Allowed 2 catches for 5 yards on 3 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

CB Chris Culliver: Allowed 2 catches for 13 yards on 6 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 2 solo tackles

K David Akers: 4 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, 74.5 yards per kickoff, 20.0 opponent’s average starting distance, 2/2 FG (28, 38)

P Andy Lee: 5 punts for 228 yards, 4 inside 20, 2 returns for 5 yards, 44.6 net yards per punt

Duds

QB Alex Smith: 14 of 23 for 140 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, 1 hit as thrown, 2 throw aways, 66.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 5 of 26 drop backs (2 sacks, 0-3, 2 throw aways, 1 hit as thrown)

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]