Month: October 2012

Cincinnati Bengals: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals

Last week: 23 (-4)

Record: 3-4

Before the season, I picked the Bengals to be this year’s team to go from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer because I thought they were the weakest of the 12 playoff teams last year, coming in tied for the fewest wins with 9 and having not beaten a single playoff team all year, including the playoffs, when they were one and done. With the Bengals starting 3-1 and the Saints getting off to a horrible start, I moved the Bengals up slightly and the Saints into this spot, but after 3 straight losses by the Bengals, it’s time to put them back here.

They’ve lost to Pittsburgh (3-3), Baltimore (5-2), Cleveland (1-6), and Miami (3-3) and won against Jacksonville (1-5), Washington (3-4) and Cleveland (1-6). They most likely still have not beaten a playoff team in the Andy Dalton era and look at their schedule the rest of the way: vs. Denver, vs. New York Giants, @ Kansas City, vs. Oakland, @ San Diego, vs. Dallas, @ Philadelphia, @ Pittsburgh, vs. Baltimore. Considering their struggles against quality opponents, they could go 2-7 the rest of the way. It’s not out of the realm of possibility. I compared them to the 2011 Buccaneers in my season preview and that kind of finish could happen for them.

Studs

LG Clint Boling: Did not allow a pressure on 28 pass block snaps, rushed for 7 yards on 1 attempt

RG Kevin Zeitler: Did not allow a pressure on 28 pass block snaps, rushed for 7 yards on 3 attempts

RT Andre Smith: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 28 pass block snaps, rushed for 17 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

RE Michael Johnson: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 3 assists, 3 stops

P Kevin Huber: 6 punts for 311 yards, 2 inside 20, 3 returns for 10 yards, 46.8 net yards per punt

Duds

QB Andy Dalton: 14 of 28 for 105 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, 2 batted passes, 2 throw aways, 3 drops, 69.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 6 of 28 drop backs (0 sacks, 2 of 6, 2 throw aways)

TE Jermaine Gresham: Caught 3 passes for 19 yards on 5 attempts on 20 pass snaps, 5.7 YAC per catch, 1 drop

WR AJ Green: Caught 1 pass for 8 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

DT Domata Peko: Did not record a pressure on 26 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

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Carolina Panthers: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers

Last week: 27 (-1)

Record: 1-5

After last week’s loss to the Cowboys, which dropped them to 1-5 on the season, Cam Newton said in a post game interview “something’s gotta change.” Well, maybe this will appease him. GM Marty Hurney was fired Monday Morning. For Hurney, it was about 2 years too late. At the very least, he should have been fired after their 2-14 season in 2010, along with John Fox. Since then, the only good move he made was drafting Cam Newton.

Everything else, from the rest of their 2011 draft to overpaying players such that they were a 6-10 team over the cap coming out of last season, has been a failure. Unfortunately for Panthers fans, it’ll be a year or two for the new front office to clean up this mess because they won’t have much cap space this offseason. Fortunately, they should have another top-5 pick.

As for this season, it appears to be a lost cause after coming into the season with so much hope. Not only are they 1-5 in the tougher conference (they’re the only 1 loss team in the NFC), but they’ve lost Ryan Kalil, Chris Gamble, and likely Jon Beason for the season. Kalil is not their best offensive lineman because of left tackle Jordan Gross, but he’s one of the top-3 centers in the league. Gamble is not only their best defensive back, but their only good one. Beason, meanwhile, isn’t the player he was two years ago, but his loss still hurts. His loss means up and down rookie Luke Kuechly will have to play an every down role, while Thomas Davis, an injury prone linebacker who had torn his ACL 3 times as a pro, will have to step into the starting lineup and see more snaps than maybe his knees can handle.

With Hurney being fired, there has been some talk that the coaches, including Head Coach Ron Rivera, should go along with him. I agree and disagree. I believe defensive coordinator Sean McDermott should be fired and I don’t even know if I’d wait for the end of the season. He’s a terrible defensive coordinator and that dates back to his days in Philadelphia. As for the Head Coach and the rest of the coaching staff, I say keep them in place. The last thing Cam Newton needs right now is an unnecessary coaching change and I don’t think the change would be necessary yet. Just ask Alex Smith how much he wishes he had some consistency as a young quarterback.

Speaking of Cam Newton, he made headlines this week for something he didn’t even do as mentor Warren Moon called criticism of Newton “racial.” If I were Newton, I’d tell Moon to shut up immediately. All he’s doing is damaging his credibility. Do I think Newton is being overly criticized? Yes, he’s a young quarterback who is just having a sophomore slump and I still don’t have much doubt that he’ll be a franchise quarterback long term. I also think he was overrated after last season and has too much pressure on him.

That being said, he’s a quarterback and a high profile athlete. Quarterbacks are overly criticized in general. It’s nothing specific to him. Look at Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler etc. Those guys are all above average quarterbacks who have had people question whether they should even be starting in this league at times after bad games. There’s nothing racial about the criticism of Cam Newton. In fact, he brings some of it on himself by doing all these commercials, which is why he’s so high profile, and then not backing it up on the field. That’s why he gets the criticism, while someone like Matt Stafford, having an equally disappointing year, doesn’t get it as much.

I really hope Newton isn’t listening to Moon and making excuses for himself like that. The only way he’s going to meet his potential is if he takes responsibility and blaming criticism on race is not doing that. Plus, it’s 2012. No one cares Cam Newton is black. Warren Moon is the only one bringing it up. It’s like Morgan Freeman says. The way to end racism is to stop talking about race. End rant.

Studs

ROLB James Anderson: 11 solo tackles, 1 assist, 7 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty, allowed 4 catches for 25 yards on 5 attempts

Duds

RG Byron Bell: Allowed 3 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 43 pass block snaps

DT Dwan Edwards: Did not record a pressure on 24 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

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Cleveland Browns: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 31 (+2)

Record: 1-6

Despite their loss, the Browns move up. Last week, I mentioned I consdered putting the Browns ahead of the rest of the 1 win teams and some of the 2 win teams because they’ve been competitive in every game despite their record (worst in the league at 1-6). This week, I just moved them up out of the bottom 3. One 1 win team is still above them (Carolina at 28), but they’re better than the 3 teams below them, all of whom have been blown out on several occasions. The Browns have only lost one game by more than 10, none by more than 14, and in that 14 point loss, they still lead right before halftime.

Studs

LG John Greco: Didn’t allow a pressure on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

C Alex Mack: Didn’t allow a pressure on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 26 yards on 5 attempts

SS TJ Ward: Allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 1 blitz

LE Jabaal Sheard: 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 29 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

Duds

RT Mitchell Schwartz: Allowed 3 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 43 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 1 yard on 2 attempts

DT Billy Winn: Did not record a pressure on 30 pass rush snaps, no tackles, 1 penalty

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Oakland Raiders: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 29 (-2)

Record: 2-4

I went back and forth between the Raiders and Chiefs here, but I ultimately decided to drop the Raiders to this spot, in spite of their overtime home win. If you need Blaine Gabbert to get hurt to beat the Jaguars in overtime at home, you might as well have lost. Chad Henne was horrific in relief of him, helping the Jaguars blow what was a 20-6 lead in the middle of the 3rd quarter, but their terrible secondary actually made Gabbert look functional before he got hurt, completing 8 of 12 for 110 yards and a touchdown. Fortunately (or unfortunately), the Raiders go to Kansas City this week to settle who is actually the 2nd worst team in the league in the Toilet Bowl this week. If the Raiders win, they’d stand at 3-4 thanks to two easy games and I guess you can’t count them out in the crappy AFC, sadly.

Studs

C Stefen Wisniewski: Did not allow a pressure on 53 pass block snaps, run blocked for 39 yards on 10 attempts

CB Michael Huff: Allowed 1 catch for 2 yards on 6 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops

LE Lamarr Houston: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 6 stops

Duds

RB Darren McFadden: Rushed for 53 yards (36 after contact) on 19 carries, allowed 1 quarterback hit on 9 pass block snaps, caught 4 passes for 28 yards on 6 attempts, 1 drop

RT Willie Smith: Allowed 3 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback hurries on 53 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

RE Matt Shaughnessy: Did not record a pressure on 26 pass rush snaps, no tackles, 1 penalty

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Jacksonville Jaguars Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 1-5

Jacksonville is by far the worst team in the league despite their near win in Oakland and it’s not even close. Their yards per play differential is -1.6. No one else is worse than -1.1. Their rate of sustaining drives differential is -16.8%. No one else is worse than -11.2%. Even against Oakland in their near win, they had half as many first downs as Oakland and managed a measly 3.4 yards per play to Oakland’s 4.7. Chad Henne somehow seems to actually be worse than Blaine Gabbert and I didn’t even think that was possible. Gabbert is expected to play this week against Green Bay, which means they’ll lose by only 25 instead of 30.

Also bad news, Maurice Jones-Drew is out indefinitely. He is their best player by far. Last year, he accounted for 47.7% of their yards from scrimmage, most since 1974. This year, he was at 39.9% heading into last week’s game. As good as Rashad Jennings looked in the preseason, he managed just 44 yards on 21 carries last week against an Oakland run defense that was allowing 4.4 YPC coming in, which would have been 23rd in the league this week. They now rank 8th because of Jennings’ terrible game.

Studs

LT Eugene Monroe: Allowed 1 sack on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

RT Cameron Bradfield: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 39 pass block snaps

RG Uche Nwaneri: Did not allow a pressure on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 5 attempts

MLB Paul Posluszny: 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 6 stops, 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 8 blitzes, allowed 4 catches for 11 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections

SS Dawan Landry: 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, allowed 1 catch for 17 yards on 4 attempts, 2 pass deflections

FS Chris Prosinski: Allowed 1 catch for 6 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

LE Austin Lane: 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 5 stops

Duds

QB Chad Henne: 9 of 20 for 71 yards, 1 drop, 1 batted pass, 1 hit as thrown, 1 throw away, 53.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 25 drop backs (3 sacks, 0 of 5, 1 hit as thrown, 1 throw away)

WR Cecil Shorts: Caught 4 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 2.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 2 penalties

WR Justin Blackmon: Caught 1 pass for 7 yards on 4 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch

CB Rashean Mathis: Allowed 2 catches for 64 yards on 2 attempts, 1 penalty, no tackles

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Vikings

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-2)

As I like to mention every week, the rule of thumb on Thursday Night is to take the home team. Home teams are 68-49 ATS in the history of Thursday Night football. It makes sense. On a short week, all the time to prepare, practice, and rest is incredibly valuable and when you have to travel on a short week, that takes away some of that time and puts you at an obvious disadvantage.

As I often point out, however, this effect is usually nullified when the road team is a favorite. Road favorites generally tend to be more veteran, experienced teams and more veteran, experienced teams also tend to have an advantage in preparation on a short week, for obvious reasons. This effect tends to nullify the effect of having to travel for road favorites. As a result, road favorites are 23-22 ATS in the history of Thursday Night Football. What this does do is give us an even stronger trend with home favorites. Home favorites are 45-26 ATS on Thursday Night.

The one exception to that tends to be divisional home favorites. This also makes some sense. Part of the reason why travelling on a short week hurts you is because it cuts into your time to prepare for the opposing team. Well, if the opposing team is a familiar division foe, this doesn’t have as much of an effect. Divisional home favorites are just 17-16 ATS on Thursdays and divisional road favorites are 8-10 ATS.

This week, we are getting a non-divisional home favorite on Thursday Night, which happens to be the strongest trend of all. You’re the better team. Your opponent has to travel. And your opponent is unfamiliar with you and doesn’t have as much time to prepare for you as you have to prepare for them. Teams in this spot are 28-10 ATS in the history of Thursday Night Football.

However, I’m not as excited to be able to use this trend as I thought it would be. The issue is that Minnesota, while they are home favorites, is also a young team. Both of these teams are young. Given that I believe the advantage favorites have on Thursday Nights stems from them being experienced and veteran and more prepared to deal with a short week, it hurts that Minnesota is a young team. We don’t really know how they’ll react to a short week, even against an equally young opponent.

Minnesota is, in fact, the better team here, so this line of -6.5 is reasonable. Actually, it’s kind of eerie how reasonable it is. I use two methods of determining line value. I use yards per play differential (yards per play minus yards per play allowed) and rate of sustaining drives differential (how often on any given set of downs you achieve a first down or a score minus how often you opponent does so).

I think these two work together well. Yards per play differential overvalues teams that get a lot of big plays, but can’t sustain drives and undervalues methodical offenses (and vice versa for the defense), while the rate of sustaining drives metric overvalues teams that are the exact opposite, methodical, but lack explosion.

Minnesota’s yards per play differential is 0.4, while Tampa Bay’s is -0.2. That translates to a “real” line of -7 (take the difference between the two differentials, divide by .15 and add 3 for homefield). Meanwhile, Minnesota’s rate of sustaining drives differential is 2.8%, while Tampa Bay’s is -2.0%. Take the difference, divide this time by 1.5, and add 3 for homefield, and you get a real line of -6. Average those two and you get -6.5, so there’s not really any line value either way. If there is one way, it’s towards Minnesota slightly, because Tampa Bay is missing arguably their top pass rusher Adrian Clayborn and their top cornerback Aqib Talib, while Minnesota isn’t missing anyone of note.

Two other things work against Tampa Bay. One is how close and down to the wire their game was last week. They didn’t go to overtime with the Saints, but they almost did. Teams are 3-14 ATS on Thursdays after an overtime game. Part of that is being exhausted from playing an extra period and then having to play again in 3 days, but some of that is the mental exhaustion of playing such a close game. The physical exhaustion won’t be as big of an issue this week because it didn’t actually go to overtime, but they could be in a bad spot mentally off such a close loss to a divisional opponent.

The other is just the rate of which underdogs have been covering this year. Dogs are 63-39 ATS on the season. You might think, that’s a reason to take the dog, but eventually that’s going to even out. Dating back over the last decade, dogs or favorites have not finished more than 10 games over .500 over the course of an entire year. It’s smart to ride the correction going forward and take more favorites than dogs, particularly favorites that are not publicly backed because those teams covering would have a double benefit for odds makers. It would allow the dogs/favorites disparity to even out and also they’d make money. In this one, there’s not a significant public lean either way and I think you’d have to be crazy this week to take a public dog (with one possible exception, which I’ll get into later this week).

I tried to pick as many favorites as I could last week. I just didn’t like a lot of them. This week, I do like a lot more, so I’ll pick more favorites this week, starting with this game, even if it isn’t a big play. Last week, favorites were 7-6 ATS, which looks like the start of a correction. It might not look like it totally, but remember, favorites were 12-1 SU. 5 of those covers were backdoor, including two ridiculous ones: Jim Harbaugh’s declining a safety on Thursday Night and the Lions driving for a backdoor cover with 30 seconds left on Monday Night against a 6.5 point spread when they hadn’t scored all night (both went against me on two instances I actually did pick favorites).

I’m afraid to put more than 2 units on Minnesota because they are young, but Minnesota should be the right side. I also, as always, like the under on Thursday Night. Unprepared teams, which teams who play on Thursday Night are, tend to see the negative effects more offensively than defensively. The under is 51-70 on Thursday Night all time. I especially like the under this week because both teams are young.

Public lean: Minnesota (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tampa Bay covers)

Minnesota Vikings 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against spread: Minnesota -6.5 (-110) 2 units

Total: Under 42.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Week 8 Fantasy Football Waiver Claims

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football, 2012 Waiver Claims

RB LaRod Stephens-Howling (Arizona)

Percent owned (ESPN): 10.5%

William Powell appeared to break out as Arizona’s new lead back week 6 against Buffalo, but he fumbled a kickoff return early against Minnesota and barely saw any action, very unfortunate for anyone who picked him up and started him this week. LaRod Stephens-Howling took over as the lead back in his absence and given his performance against a solid Minnesota run defense, 149 all purposes yards and a touchdown on 24 total touches, he doesn’t seem like he’s going to be giving back the starting job anytime soon…unless, you know, he fumbles or something.

RB Rashad Jennings (Jacksonville)

Percent owned (ESPN): 13.6%

MJD is out for at least this week with a foot injury and if it’s a Lisfranc injury, which the coaches wouldn’t rule out, he could be out much longer. In his absence, Jennings would be the lead back. Many people have dropped the popular preseason sleeper since MJD returned from his holdout and played well as the lead back, but he’ll be the guy in Jacksonville for now and he showed in the preseason he’s capable.

RB Montario Hardesty (Cleveland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 8.5%

Hardesty has rushed for 84 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries in the last 2 weeks in relief on Trent Richardson, who has left both games with an injury. He may shut it down this week just to rest up with the Browns going nowhere fast, so Hardesty could be the lead back this week.

RB Jonathan Dwyer (Pittsburgh)

Percent owned (ESPN): 18.5%

Dwyer finally got a chance to be a feature back this week and made the most of it, rushing for 122 yards and 17 carries. Isaac Redman and Rashard Mendenhall could be back this week, but they might not be and even if they are, Dwyer’s performance might have allowed him to jump the two disappointing backs on the depth chart. Remember, coming into this game, Pittsburgh was last in the league in yards per carry.

RB Daryl Richardson (St. Louis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 11.4%

Richardson is not only splitting carries pretty evenly with the veteran Steven Jackson, he’s arguably outperforming him with 213 total yards on 33 total touches in the last 3 weeks. There’s been some rumors that Jackson could be traded before this week’s deadline and even if he isn’t, Richardson’s role could expand even more in the next few weeks.

RB Phillip Tanner (Dallas)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.9%

Working behind two injury prone backs, Tanner got 13 carries this week, though only managed 30 rushing yards, along with a catch for another 8. DeMarco Murray is uncertain for this week and Tanner could continue to split carries with Felix Jones, whose also always an injury risk.

RB Kendall Hunter (San Francisco)

Percent owned (ESPN): 13.7%

Kendall Hunter continues to get a decent amount of work behind Frank Gore, with 214 total yards and a score in his last 4 games. Frank Gore should be good to go this week after getting hurt late last week, but it’s just a reminder of how injury prone Gore is. Hunter is worth a bench stash because he’s getting some work and would be in line for a much bigger load if Gore gets hurt.

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Week 7 NFL Picks Results

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks

Week 7 Results

ATS: 5-6-2 -2 units/-$340

SU: 9-4

Upset Picks: 1-4 -235

Over/Under: 1-0 +100

Parlays: 1-0 +100

Total: -$375

Public Results ATS*: 5-7-1 +5 units

2012 results to date

ATS: 50-49-5 +11 units/-$125

SU: 63-41

Upset Picks: 19-21 +$1050

Over/Under: 4-1-1 +290

Parlays: 1-0 +100

Total: +1315

Survivor: 5-2 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI)

Public Results ATS*: 45-57-2 -30 units

*I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public win, if not, it’s a public loss. If a team that has 50-59% of the action on it covers, the public gets “one unit,” if they don’t cover, they lose one unit, 60-69% is 2, 70-79% is 3, etc.

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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bears, Lions

Detroit Lions (2-3) at Chicago Bears (4-1)

This week, I put the Bears 1st in my Power Rankings. With the exception of the Thursday Night loss to Green Bay, the Bears have looked great this season, winning every game by 16 or more and only surrendering 7 sacks in 4 games. While you can’t completely ignore what happened on Thursday Night Football, it’s unreasonable to put too much stock into one game when a team has had 3 days to prepare on the road.

In their other 4 games, with the exception of Jacksonville, who they destroyed in Jacksonville in a potential trap game, they’ve played good opponents. Dallas should be a playoff contender right until the very end. They beat them by 16 in Dallas. Blowout wins over Indianapolis and St. Louis didn’t look impressive at the time, but now they do. Jay Cutler is now 9-1 in his last 10 games, including 22-10 dating back to 2010, including the 2 postseason games that year. Every year, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. At the very least, I think the Bears will do that. At most, they might just be the best team in the league, though there’s still a lot left uncertain.

The yards per play method of computing line value suggests this line should be -4.5, while the rate of sustaining drives method suggests it should be -8.5. Given that, it might not seem like there’s any line value either way, but those numbers are much higher if you take out Chicago’s horrific Thursday Night performance. Besides, Detroit has the worst special teams in the league this year, something neither of those metrics captures. I like the matchup of Devin Hester against their special teams.

With the exception of that Thursday Night game, Chicago has covered by 10 or more in each of their 4 games, all of which have been blowouts. That’s a very impressive feat and I’m sticking with the team I proclaimed to be the best in the league here on Monday Night Football, where Jay Cutler is actually 7-3 ATS in his career. Detroit still has a bunch of issues so Chicago should pick up another double digit victory rested off a bye. Chicago is also my survivor pick on a bad week for survivor.

Public lean: Chicago (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Detroit covers)

Sharps lean: DET 15 CHI 4

Final update: No change, sticking with the Bears. I am, however, going to do a teaser of over 40.5 (normally 46.5) on the Buffalo/Tennessee game and Chicago -0.5 here for 1 unit. Assuming the over 40.5 hits, I can then hedge by taking the Detroit money line at +230 for a unit. That way, if Chicago wins, my teaser hits and I get +100 and lose 100 on the money line, so I don’t lose anything. If Chicago loses, I get the money line of +230 and lose 1 unit on the teaser, so -110, which equals out to be +120.

Assuming the over 40.5 hits in the Buffalo/Tennessee game, I can’t lose and it also allows me to somewhat hedge by Chicago +6.5 play. I like the over in the Buffalo/Tennessee game because neither of those teams can play defense as they rank 31st and 32nd in the league in points per game allowed and because games involving a team that just played a Thursday Night game go over 136 times and 97 times. In a 6 point teaser, that record improves to 184-52 for the over.

Sunday Night Update: I decided I’m not going to hedge. Confident in Bears to win because of how favorites have been doing this week (11-1 straight up, 7-4-1 ATS). It was bound to even out eventually.

Chicago Bears 31 Detroit Lions 17 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL)

Pick against spread: Chicago Bears -6.5 (-110) 2 units

Teaser: Over 40.5 Tennessee/Buffalo, Chicago -0.5

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