Month: November 2012

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Titans

Tennessee Titans (4-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9)

One of the most powerful trends applies to road favorites after a bye. Since 2002, teams are 44-15 ATS as road favorites right after a bye, including 22-3 ATS as divisional road favorites off a bye. I only heavily bet on this trend when the road favorite deserves to be favorites, but here the Titans do. Using the yards per play differential method computing of line value, the Titans should be 1.5 point favorites and using the rate of sustaining drives differential method says the Titans should be 1 point favorites. We’re getting a bit of line value with the Jaguars, but not enough to combat that trend.

The Titans aren’t a very good team at 4-6, with a -91 points differential. Only Jacksonville, Oakland, and Kansas City have a points differential worse than them. However, even sub .500 teams are 9-4 ATS as road favorites since 2002. And the Jaguars are so bad that the Titans do deserve to be road favorites. They are -1.1 in yards per play differential. No one else is worse than -0.9. They are -15.2% in rate of sustaining drives differential. No one else is worse than -9.5%. The Titans are the -9.5% team, and they are coming off a fluky win (teams that score 28 or more points as dogs despite 300 or fewer yards go 43-64 ATS in their next game) but they still deserve to be road favorites. The Jaguars don’t deserve to be favorites against anyone.

Chad Henne is now the Jaguars’ starting quarterback. He looked great against Houston, certainly better Blaine Gabbert ever was, going 16 of 33 for 354 yards and 4 touchdowns, but he’s notorious for being inconsistent. This is still the same quarterback that got benched for Matt Moore in Miami and who completed 9 of 20 for 71 yards against Oakland’s terrible secondary, blowing a big lead, a few weeks ago. I’m not worried too much about him as an “X-factor” or anything like that.

The Jaguars are also in a terrible spot coming off that near win against the Texans last week. Excluding road dogs, teams are 18-46 ATS off a road overtime loss (6-14 ATS as home dogs) since 2002. It’s going to be very, very tough for this crappy 1-9 team to get up after losing the biggest game of their season against a huge division rival and the best team in the NFL record wise. Furthermore, teams are 5-15 ATS since 2002 off a divisional overtime loss as dogs.

The Titans should be able to win this one pretty easily so it’s a significant play on the road favorite. That 22-3 ATS trend is hard to ignore, especially in conjunction with an 18-46 ATS trend and a 5-15 ATS trend. I also really like that this isn’t a huge public lean on Tennessee because the odds makers do need to make back some money after a rough 3 week stretch. I just wish we had field goal protection.

Public lean: Tennessee (60% range)

Sharps lean: TEN 20 JAX 4

Final update: This is the biggest sharps lean of the week and I’m glad it’s on one of my 4-unit co-picks of the week. The LV Hilton spread is Tennessee -3 and if I had that, I’d put 5 units on it and make it a true pick of the week, but I have it at -3.5, so it’s 4.

Tennessee Titans 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Tennessee -3.5 (-110) 4 units

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Green Bay Packers at New York Giants: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Giants, Packers

Green Bay Packers (7-3) at New York Giants (6-4)

What’s wrong with the Giants? That’s what everyone is asking. Well, they do this every year. Since Tom Coughlin took over, the Giants are 53-19 in the first 8 games of a season and 27-39 in the last 8 games of the season, including these last 2 losses. Eli Manning has been the main problem of late and not just in the 2 losses. Dating back to their two close wins over Washington and Dallas, Manning is 80 of 139 for 869 yards, 1 touchdown, and 6 interceptions in his last 4 games.

Manning reportedly had a case of tired arm, which does explain why he’s struggled by his standards, but tired arm isn’t some rare thing. It’s something guys often have to deal with over the course of the season. The Giants have had a bye, but I can’t say for sure that Manning will completely turn things around and the same for the Giants as a whole, given the Giants’ history in the 2nd half in the Coughlin/Manning era.

I’ve mentioned the huge disparity in records, but Eli’s play generally drops off in the 2nd half. In the 1st half of the season, he completes 60.2% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA and 111 touchdowns to 61 interceptions. In the 2nd half, he completes 57.2% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA, 86 touchdowns, and 79 interceptions. I don’t think the bye is going to solve their problems. They especially struggle as home favorites after week 8, going 10-20 ATS since 2004.

The Packers, meanwhile, are incredibly banged up. They’re missing 3 of their starting linebackers, Nick Perry, Desmond Bishop, and Clay Matthews. Matthews is the most important injury because he’s their only consistent pass rusher. DJ Smith, who was filling in for Bishop in the middle, is also hurt. Stud starting safety Charles Woodson is also out, as is #1 receiver Greg Jennings and starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga.

In spite of all this, they are on a 5 game winning streak. I do think they’re a little overrated. They rank just 8th in rate of sustaining drives differential and 15th in yards per play differential, but the Giants are a little overrated too and the Packers thrive in this situation, as dogs. Aaron Rodgers is 11-5 ATS in his career getting points, which makes sense. Besides, they are dogs before being favorites as they host the Vikings next week. Teams are 96-53 ATS in this spot since 2011.

The line is exactly where it should be. The rate of sustaining drives differential method of computing line value says this line should be Giants -3.5, while the yards per play differential method says this line should be Giants -1.5, which averages out exactly where the line is, -2.5. However, the Packers have the momentum and the Giants don’t. They always struggle in the 2nd half of the season and I love getting Rodgers as a dog. It’s a significant play on the Packers. It would be 4 units if the public wasn’t pounding Green Bay as a public dog.

Public lean: Green Bay (70% range)

Sharps lean: GB 12 NYG 11

Final update: No change.

Green Bay Packers 31 New York Giants 24 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Green Bay +2.5 (-110) 3 units

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Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Chargers, Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (8-2) at San Diego Chargers (4-6)

The Chargers haven’t beaten a team other than the Chiefs since week 2, when they beat the Titans, who aren’t exactly great either and then before that they beat Oakland. Why would anyone pick them to beat the Ravens? Well, that seems to be the public sentiment this week as the public is pounding Baltimore as small road favorites, but I’ll tell you why San Diego is a smart bet this week.

The first reason is pretty simple and it’s just that the public loves Baltimore. The odds makers always make money in the long run, so it’s smart to bet against public leans, especially heavy public leans. If you were to do that over the course of a season, you’d probably win money every year (the only way you wouldn’t would be the juice).This week, I think, it’s especially smart to do so because the odds makers haven’t had a good 3 weeks. They should be due for a big week.

It goes deeper than that too. This is right around the point every season when the Chargers start playing incredibly well. In his career, Philip Rivers is 31-19 ATS in week 11 or later. In the last 3 years, as mediocre as they’ve been, they’re still 10-5 ATS in week 11 or later, including a cover last week in Denver. As underdogs, as they are here, Rivers is 12-4 ATS in week 11 or later, including 3-0 ATS as home dogs. It’s rare that the Chargers have been home dogs in the Philip Rivers era, this is only the 5th time, but they are 3-1 ATS in the first 4 instances, including a late season (week 15) blowout win over these Ravens last year (34-14). More on that game later. The Chargers are also in a good spot as dogs before being favorites (they host Cincinnati next week). Teams are 96-53 ATS in this spot since 2011.

The Ravens, meanwhile, are in a bad spot. As good as they are at home (16 straight wins), they generally struggle as road favorites, going 1-5 ATS as non-divisional home favorites in the last 2 seasons. Last year, they lost to 4 non-playoff teams on the road, Tennessee, Seattle, Jacksonville, and these Chargers, in a game that was situation wise very similar to this one. I put a big play on the 6-7 Chargers against the 10-3 Ravens last year and I’m going to do it again this year. This year, they barely beat the lowly Chiefs in Kansas City. They also generally struggle on the West Coast (2-10 ATS in franchise history).

Besides, if you think about it, what’s their motivation here? They have a 2 game lead on the division after their win over Pittsburgh last week and next week they play the Steelers again. If they beat the Steelers next week, they’ll have at least a 2 game lead on the division and the tiebreaker even if they lose this game. This game means nothing. Teams, for whatever reason, tend to struggle after beating the Steelers anyway, going a ridiculous 18-40 ATS since 2002 (no other team has a trend like that). The Ravens are 3-6 ATS after beating them in that time period. They probably won’t get up for this game and will underachieve against a Chargers team that always gets hot at this time and who beat them in this exact situation last year.

The Ravens are overrated anyway. They’re only +61 in points differential and most of that came from two wins against Cincinnati and crappy Oakland. They’re 6-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and they haven’t had a particularly tough schedule. They could have easily lost to Pittsburgh last week if Charlie Batch had stepped in for Leftwich when he got clearly hurt. They are just 9th in yards per play differential and 17th in rate of sustaining drives differential.

They allow more yards per game than they gain. Against Pittsburgh, they were outgained by over 100 yards and even against Oakland, a huge win, they got outgained. They’re doing really well with turnovers. Only New England (+20) has a better turnover differential than their +12, but that’s not sustainable and their wins have been close enough that it’s definitely something to worry about. They’re also only 4-6 ATS against the spread.

As you can imagine, we are getting some line value with the Chargers. Using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, this line should be San Diego -3 and using the yards per play differential method, this should be a pick em. Neither one says that the Ravens should be road favorites here and I agree, trends aside. With trends factored in, the Chargers seem like the clear choice, especially with the public heavy on Baltimore in a week where the odds makers need to make their money back. We might even see another 34-14 type game.

It’s a big play on the Chargers. I’m not worried at all that they’ve quit on Norv Turner. As bad of a Head Coach as he is, they have never fully quit on him and just given up on a season. Philip Rivers is a huge supporter of his Head Coach and this bunch will play hard to save his job, like they always do late in the season. They’re not getting run out of the building. The last game they played where they didn’t keep it even close was week 3. They’re still playing hard.

Instead of putting 4 units on the spread and one on the money line, I’m putting all 5 on the money line. Since 1989, there have been 414 teams who have been favorites of less than 2. Of those 414 teams, only 7 of those teams won by exactly 1 point, about 1.7%. It’s not worth the extra 15 cents for something that historically will only hurt me about 1.7% of the time.

Public lean: Baltimore (80% range)

Sharps lean: SD 14 BAL 4

Final update: Another heavy sharps lean lines up with one of my picks of the week, a very good sign.

San Diego Chargers 27 Baltimore Ravens 17 Upset Pick +105 5 units

Pick against spread: San Diego +1 (-110) 0 units

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Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bengals, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (3-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-5)

Every year, one team goes from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. The Bengals now stand at 5-5, but I won’t rule out them losing out. The Lions at 4-6 are the favorite this year and I also won’t rule out that we won’t have one this year (only happened once in the last decade).  However, looking at the Bengals’ remaining schedule, they’re only definitely going to be favored in one more game, this one at home for Oakland. At Philadelphia and home for Dallas are other options, but if they lost this week, they could conceivably, but improbably, lose out.

Will they lose at home this week to the Raiders? I won’t say it’s impossible. Teams are 36-16 ATS off back-to-back losses by 21 or more since 2002, and the Raiders have lost 55-20 and 38-17 in their last two games. Teams tend to be embarrassed, playing for pride, undervalued, and overlooked by their opponent in this spot. That trend is actually a perfect 4-0 ATS and SU this year and has led to such upsets as Tennessee over Detroit, Tennessee over Pittsburgh, Buffalo over Arizona, and last week’s NY Jets over St. Louis. This line has shifted 2.5 points in the last week (from -5.5 to -8), so the Raiders are definitely undervalued. In spite of this, the public is still on the Bengals, important since the odds makers desperately need to make money back after a bad 3 week stretch, though it’s not a huge lean.

The Raiders are also dogs before being favorites. Teams are 96-53 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons. They host the crappy Browns next week, so they’ll be completely focused for the Bengals this week in a pride game. I can’t say the Bengals will be completely focused for them, however. The Raiders certainly don’t scare anyone right now and the Bengals have to go to San Diego next week, where they will almost definitely be underdogs. Teams are 111-56 ATS since 2008 as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will be dogs the following week, including 34-13 ATS when all three games (the current game, their next game, and their opponent’s next game) are all non-divisional. This game simply means different things to these two teams.

Besides, the Bengals tend to disappoint as favorites. Since 2007, they are 6-14 ATS as home favorites. Even in the last two years, when young Andy Dalton has had a ton of success against non-playoff teams (9-0 last year against non-playoff teams, 4-2 this year against teams currently outside of the playoffs), they are just 2-4 ATS as home favorites. In total in the Marvin Lewis era (going back to 2003), they are 14-25 ATS as home favorites, including just 3-9 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more.

We’re also getting some line value with the Bengals. The yards per play differential method of computing line value says this line should be Cincinnati -5.5 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method says this line should be Cincinnati -7, both of which are lower than this -8 line. 8 points seems like too many points even if the Raiders didn’t have a significant trends advantage.

The Raiders should cover this spread and there’s a decent chance they could even win this game. This would be a bigger play on the Raiders if it wasn’t for 3 things. First, the Raiders have burned me twice in the last 2 weeks, though I never really let this scare me off, any team can cover at any time and the Raiders are undervalued and possibly very embarrassed. I say possibly because there’s a chance they may have quit on their Head Coach, which is the 2nd reason, but they have a 1st year Head Coach so it’s unlikely they’ve already quit. Third, and most significantly, the Raiders have to travel as a West Coast team to the Eastern time zone for a 1 PM start. Teams tend to struggle in this spot. The Raiders are just 7-14 ATS in this situation since 2002. It’s still a significant play on the Raiders.

Public lean: Cincinnati (60% range)

Sharps lean: OAK 9 CIN 2

Final update: All 3 of my co-picks of the week line up with heavy sharps lean. I always have my best weeks when that happens.

Oakland Raiders 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +330

Pick against spread: Oakland +8 (-110) 4 units

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Houston Texans: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Texans

Last week: 1 (+0)

Record: 9-1

They’re still the #1 team, but maybe only by default. I’m still not sold on any one team right now and maybe they’re just keeping this seat warm for the 49ers, who I’ll be sold on in a way I’m sold on no other if Kaepernick continues to start and proves last Monday was not a fluke. Instead, for right now, I think there are 6 teams that are in the upper echelon, with Houston at the top, but the Super Bowl will probably be won by the team who gets hot at the right time. It’s still very wide open.

Studs

LT Duane Brown: Did not allow a pressure on 59 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt

LG Wade Smith: Did not allow a pressure on 55 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 5 attempts

C Chris Myers: Did not allow a pressure on 59 pass block snaps, run blocked for 85 yards on 13 attempt

RT Derek Newton: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 59 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 1 attempt

QB Matt Schaub: 43 of 55 for 527 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, 103.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 57 drop backs (2 sacks, 3 of 6, 1 interception)

RB Justin Forsett: Rushed for 59 yards (44 after contact) on 7 attempts, 3 broken tackles, caught 1 pass for 6 yards on 2 attempts

WR Andre Johnson: Caught 14 passes for 273 yards and a touchdown on 19 attempts on 55 pass snaps, 7.1 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

TE Garrett Graham: Caught 8 passes for 82 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 attempts on 24 pass snaps, 2.9 YAC per catch

CB Johnathan Joseph: Allowed 2 catches for 17 yards on 4 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop

MLB Bradie James: 9 solo tackles, 1 assist, 8 stops, 1 missed tackle, 2 quarterback hurries on 12 blitzes, allowed 2 catches for 12 yards on 3 attempts

LE JJ Watt: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hits on 35 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 6 stops

ROLB Brooks Reed: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 29 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

RE Antonio Smith: 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 36 pass rush snaps, 2 batted passes, 1 penalty

Duds

RB Arian Foster: Rushed for 88 yards (49 after contact) on 28 attempts, 1 fumble, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 6 pass block snaps, caught 3 passes for 15 yards on 3 attempts

CB Brice McCain: Allowed 3 catches for 102 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes

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San Francisco 49ers: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers

Last week: 6 (+4)

The 49ers would be #1 in these Power Rankings if I knew, first that Colin Kaepernick was going to be their starter for the rest of the season and second that his performance on Monday Night was not a fluke. We’ll know the answer to both of those questions in the next few weeks and it’s certainly an interesting situation. They were 6th last week and they’d probably still be there if I knew Smith was going to continue to start. Smith is a nice quarterback in that system, but I’ve never felt he could lead them to a Super Bowl.

If Kaepernick is for real, they absolutely can. They have the defense, the running game, the offensive line. They rank 2nd in yards per play differential and 3rd in rate of sustaining drives differential. Kaepernick makes the run even more dangerous because teams have to respect the deep ball now and because they also have to respect Kaepernick’s own running ability. They have an incredibly complex playbook, but Kaepernick allows them to use more of it with his athletic gifts and it didn’t appear he had any issues with the mental part of it either, which was formerly Alex Smith’s biggest advantage.

I’m not saying bench Smith. That could be potentially disastrous for team morale and chemistry, so it’s not advisable to do it unless you know Kaepernick is for real, but there’s nothing wrong with giving Smith a couple more games to “rest up,” see what the kid has, and then bench Smith in 2 weeks or so when you’re sure Kaepernick is the better option. If he is, this is an incredibly dangerous team with no flaws that can absolutely win the Super Bowl. If not, they go back to Smith and remain a fringe contender.

Studs

QB Colin Kaepernick: 16 of 23 for 243 yards and 2 touchdowns, 2 throw aways, 2 drops, 130.0 adjusted QB rating pressured on 9 of 26 drop backs (1 sack, 2 scrambles, 3 of 6, 1 drop, 2 throw aways), rushed for 10 yards on 4 attempts

RG Alex Boone: Did not allow a pressure on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 3 attempts

TE Vernon Davis: Caught 6 passes for 83 yards on 8 attempts on 24 pass block snaps, 2.7 YAC per catch

ROLB Aldon Smith: 6 sacks and 2 quarterback hits on 22 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 5 stops

CB Tarell Brown: Allowed 5 catches for 37 yards on 9 attempts, 1 interception, 2 solo tackle, 1 stop

MLB Patrick Willis: 3 solo tackles, 3 assists, 2 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes, allowed 2 catches for 11 yards on 4 attempts, 2 pass deflections

MLB Navorro Bowman: 11 solo tackles, 6 stops, allowed 4 catches for 19 yards on 4 attempts

RE Justin Smith: 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries on 25 pass rush snaps, 6 solo tackles, 5 stops

Duds

None

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New England Patriots: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots

Last week: 4 (+1)

Record: 7-3

The Patriots suffered a serious injury last week, losing Rob Gronkowski for at least 4 weeks with a broken arm. Gronkowski is an incredible football player and one of the top offensive players in the NFL and his absence obviously hurts. However, no one does the “next man up” thing offensively better than the Patriots. Remember when Aaron Hernandez went down and people thought it was a big deal?

Tom Brady’s favorite receiver has always been the open one. They’ll be fine without Gronkowski for a few weeks. They still have Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez (returning from injury this week), Brandon Lloyd, and Julian Edelman. That’s probably a better receiving corps than they had when they won their 3 Super Bowls. Tom Brady has never needed great receivers and no team makes week to week adjustments for injuries better than the Patriots. In 2007, when they scored all those points, their tight end was Ben Watson.

They’re averaging 35.8 points per game this season, the 2nd most in NFL history (16 games seasons), right behind…yep, the 2007 Patriots. They’ve lost 3 games by a combined 4 points and won 7 games by a combined 137, leading the league with a +133 points differential. In a way, they’re playing as well as they did in 2007, without having the pressure of being undefeated thanks to some close losses. Defensively, Aqib Talib has stabilized things in the secondary, even if only a little. Coming off a 59 point performance against the Colts, I would not want to bet against them, especially since some people are doubting them in the wake of Gronkowski’s recent injury. They thrive off that kind of thing.

As for whether or not I agree with the Patriots leaving Gronkowski in there on the final PAT, where he got hurt, initially I didn’t agree. I don’t have an issue with “running up the score.” I’ve always said, if you don’t want to get the score run up on you, don’t suck. It’s not unsportsmanlike. In fact, it’s more unsportsmanlike to cry because you can’t stop the other team. I’m not offended by it. In fact, I’m much more offended by people saying he “had it coming to him” because the Patriots were running up the score. This is a serious injury we’re talking about here.

However, leaving him in on a PAT seemed pointless. They could have sent any Joe Schmo out there to do that job with a 34 point lead. But Belichick’s explanation of the matter made perfect sense. “I think you’ve got to be careful when you’re trying to run a team, to go up to one guy and say, ‘Michael, we’re going to leave you in the game because we care about you, but Glenn, we’re going to take you out because you’re really important. You other guys go in there because if something happens to you, we don’t really care.” That’s perfectly reasonable. That’s exactly how Belichick coaches: no one is worth more than the team. Who am I to question that? He’s won 3 Super Bowls.

Speaking of 3 Super Bowls, fuck the fans who booed Adam Vinateri. The guy is a local icon and a hero. You shouldn’t hold anything him for taking more money in Indianapolis after the Patriots low balled him (yes, the Patriots even low ball kickers). Kickers don’t make much to begin with, but the money he took in Indianapolis was record money. I wish he was still on the team, but booing him baffles me.

Studs

QB Tom Brady: 24 of 35 for 331 yards and 3 touchdowns, 1 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 2 drops, 99.5 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 6 of 35 drop backs (0 sacks, 2 of 6, 1 hit as thrown, 1 drop)

TE Rob Gronkowski: Caught 7 passes for 137 yards and 2 touchdowns on 7 attempts on 24 pass snaps, 7.8 YAC per catch

FS Devin McCourty: Did not allow a catch on 3 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

MLB Brandon Spikes: 1 solo tackle, 5 assist, 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 14 pass rush snaps, did not allow a catch on 1 attempt

DT Vince Wilfork: 3 quarterback hurries on 42 pass rush snaps, 2 batted passes, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles

LE Jermaine Cunningham: 2 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback hurries on 47 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

WR Julian Edelman: 2 punt returns for 117 yards and a touchdown, rushed for 47 yards (17 after contact) on 1 attempt, 1 broken tackle, caught 5 passes for 58 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts on 32 pass snaps, 11.2 YAC per catch, 1 drop

Duds

RB Stevan Ridley: Rushed for 28 yards (22 after contact) and a touchdown on 13 attempts, 2 broken tackles

CB Aqib Talib: Allowed 8 catches for 141 yards and 2 touchdowns on 11 attempts, 1 interception, 7 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

Chicago Bears: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

Last week: 2 (-2)

Record: 7-3

I think we can all agree Jay Cutler is pretty valuable. He doesn’t put up huge numbers, but his ability to succeed in spite of a horrific offensive line and avoid sacks is so valuable to this team.  Jason Campbell isn’t a terrible backup. He’s had decent success as a starter in this league, but this offensive line made him look horrific. The Monday Night Football guys said that start was an audition for him for a potential starting job in 2013. I think the only one who could possibly have come away impressed is Rex Ryan. There’s a reason Mike Tice said this after their loss to the 49ers, when asked about if Cutler would return this week, “God, I hope so…nothing against Jason.”

Cutler is now 12-1 in his last 13 starts (excluding the Houston game in which he left at halftime). He’s such an underrated player. Every year, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. The Bears are by far the most likely to do so, but they took a hit with their past 2 losses without Cutler. They basically need to win out to do so, but Cutler should be back this week, so it should be possible. The biggest test will be a home game against Green Bay.

Studs

None

Duds

QB Jason Campbell: 14 of 22 for 107 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, 60.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 13 of 29 drop backs (6 sacks, 1 scramble, 4 of 6, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions)

RB Matt Forte: Rushed for 63 yards (25 after contact) on 21 attempts, 1 broken tackle, allowed 1 quarterback hit on 5 pass block snaps, caught 3 passes for 4 yards on 4 attempts

LT J’Marcus Webb: Allowed 3 sacks and 5 quarterback hurries on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 2 attempts

LG Chilo Rachal: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 6 yards on 5 attempts

RT Gabe Carimi: Allowed 3 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 3 attempts

WR Earl Bennett: Caught 1 pass for 6 yards on 2 attempts on 25 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

SS Major Wright: Allowed 4 catches for 54 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

DT Henry Melton: Did not record a pressure on 21 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 3 (-2)

Record: 9-1

Michael Turner is so useless. He’s averaging 3.1 YPC over his last 5 games with just one carry longer than 13. On the season, he’s failed to convert on goal-to-go carries over 75% of the time. He’s also only caught 10 passes on the year. He literally has no NFL-level skills anymore. He’s weighing this team down and they need to find a competent replacement by the playoffs. Right now, I’m not scared of this team at all. They may be 9-1, but they’ve had 5 wins by a touchdown or less against sub .500 teams, including 4 at home. Denver is the only team better than .500 they beat and that was back week 2 before Denver got hot. They’ve lost to the Saints and they could easily lose to Tampa Bay this weekend.

Studs

RT Tyson Clabo: Did not allow a pressure on 48 pass block snaps, run blocked for 18 yards on 5 attempts

CB Dunta Robinson: Allowed 2 catches for 25 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist

SS William Moore: Did not allow a completion on 1 attempt, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops

ROLB Stephen Nicholas: 3 solo tackles, 2 stops, was not thrown on, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 6 blitzes

RE John Abraham: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hurry, 1 quarterback hurry on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 4 stops

Duds

QB Matt Ryan: 28 of 46 for 301 yards and 5 interceptions, 3 drops, 59.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 47 drop backs (1 sack, 2 of 11, 2 interceptions, 1 drop)

RB Michael Turner: Rushed for 46 yards (24 after contact) and a touchdown on 15 attempts, 1 broken tackle, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 9 pass block snaps, did not catch a pass on 2 attempts, 1 drop

DT Corey Peters: Did not record a pressure on 22 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Denver Broncos: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos

Last week: 5 (-1)

Record: 7-3

Right now, this is one of 6 upper echelon teams right now. They could be higher, but I’m putting Atlanta ahead of them because they won head-to-head and have a 2 game better record than them, but I think if these teams were to have a rematch this week, I’d probably pick Denver. Denver only moves down because I was incredibly impressed Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers were previously below the Broncos. Still, I’m very, very impressed with this team right now and would not be shocked in the least if they won the Super Bowl.

Studs

RT Orlando Franklin: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards on 4 attempts

LG Zane Beadles: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 3 attempts

ROLB Von Miller: 3 sacks and 7 quarterback hurries on 38 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops

CB Chris Harris: Allowed 2 catches for 22 yards on 5 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops

LOLB Wesley Woodyard: 7 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, allowed 2 catches for 22 yards on 5 attempts, 1 interception, 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 12 blitzes

LOLB DJ Williams: 4 solo tackles, 4 stops, allowed 1 catch for 3 yards on 3 attempts

RE Elvis Dumervil: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 32 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

C Dan Koppen: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 7 attempts

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