Month: November 2012

San Diego Chargers: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers

Last week: 17 (+0)

Record: 4-6

I think it’s time for the Chargers to go on their annual late season run. Unfortunately, just like the last 2 seasons, probably all this late season run is going to end up doing is saving Norv Turner’s and AJ Smith’s job and not actually help them make the playoffs. This week, they play Baltimore, who is overrated and generally struggles on the road as favorites. If they can win that game, I think they can, they’ll be 5-6 with an easy schedule. They finish at home for Cincinnati, @ Pittsburgh (maybe without Roethlisberger), vs. Carolina, @ the Jets, and vs. Oakland.

Studs

WR Danario Alexander: Caught 7 passes for 96 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 attempts on 43 pass snaps, 0.7 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Marcus Gilchrist: Allowed 4 catches for 19 yards on 4 attempts, 2 quarterback hurries on 13 blitzes, 2 batted passes, 6 solo tackles, 3 stops

FS Eric Weddle: Allowed 1 catch for 11 yards on 2 attempts, 1 interception, 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop

LE Kendall Reyes: 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 3 stops

Duds

LT Michael Harris: Allowed 1 sack and 7 quarterback hurries on 46 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 2 yards on 4 attempts

RT Jeromey Clary: Allowed 2 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 23 yards on 6 attempts

TE Antonio Gates: Caught 2 passes for 17 yards on 4 attempts on 45 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch

SS Atari Bigby: Allowed 5 catches for 88 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

RT Corey Liuget: Did not record a pressure on 25 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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Washington Redskins: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#18)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Commanders

Last week: 22 (+4)

Record: 4-6

Despite, the Redskins’ sub .500 record, they do have a positive points differential, at +3. In fact, their points differential is actually better than that of the Cowboys, their 5-5 opponent this week, who is -13. This is because the Redskins have only lost 1 game by more than a touchdown (27-12 at Pittsburgh), despite their record. Of their 4 wins, 2 have come by more than a touchdown, including a 25 point win against Philadelphia last week. In games decides by a touchdown or less, they are just 2-5.

I think Griffin is definitely the rookie of the year. Both Luck and Griffin are really working with not much of a supporting cast, but despite Luck’s 6-4 record, the Colts are actually -50. Of their 4 losses, 3 have come by 20 or more, while only one of their 6 wins was by more than a touchdown. Luck is 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and he’s been better on 3rd downs, but overall, Griffin is posting much, much better stats. Stats aren’t everything, but the difference is so noticeable. Griffin’s QB rating is 101.0, while Luck’s is just 77.2. Griffin has 613 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns. Luck has 163 yards and 5 touchdowns. It’s not much of a contest.

Studs

QB Robert Griffin: 14 of 15 for 200 yards and 4 touchdowns, 159.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 13 of 23 drop backs (5 scrambles, 2 sacks, 5 of 6 for 2 touchdowns), rushed for 85 yards on 12 attempts, 1 fumble

NT Barry Cofield: 2 quarterback hurries and 2 quarterback hits on 29 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

SS Brandon Meriweather: Allowed 2 catches for 5 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops

Duds

RB Alfred Morris: Rushed for 76 yards (72 after contact) on 20 attempts, 3 broken tackles, 1 fumble, 2 penalties, caught 1 pass for 7 yards on 1 attempt

RT Tyler Polumbus: Allowed 5 quarterback hurries on 23 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 4 attempts

LG Kory Lichtensteiger: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 23 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for -6 yards on 1 attempt

LE Jarvis Jenkins: 1 quarterback hurry on 26 pass rush snaps, no tackles

RE Stephen Bowen: Did not record a pressure on 29 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle

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Miami Dolphins: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins

Last week: 16 (-3)

Record: 4-6

Ryan Tannehill was awful last week at Buffalo, going 14 of 28 for 141 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, but he was a rookie quarterback on the road on a short week. Still, it’s safe to say that any early hype about him is dead now that they’ve lost 3 straight. In his last 3 games, he’s gone 59 of 105 for 648 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions.

However, it’s not like he was great in his first 7 games, despite his 4-3 record, going 120 of 203 for 1472 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. The difference between their first 7 games and their last 3 has been their defense and running back. Underrated starting cornerback Richard Marshall is out for the season and Reggie Bush has fallen off the edge of the earth, rushing for just 82 yards on 24 attempts in his last 3 games.

Studs

LE Cameron Wake: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 30 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

SS Reshad Jones: Allowed 4 catches for 37 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 12 solo tackles, 8 stops, 3 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes

RB Marcus Thigpen: 5 kickoff returns for 181 yards and a touchdown, 2 punt returns for 31 yards

Duds

QB Ryan Tannehill: 14 of 28 for 141 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, 2 drops, 2 batted passes, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 59.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 31 drop backs (3 sacks, 2 of 7, 1 hit as thrown, 1 throw away)

RB Reggie Bush: Rushed for 20 yards (8 after contact) on 10 attempts, caught 2 passes for 15 yards on 3 attempts, 1 drop

RT Jonathan Martin: Allowed 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 34 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 2 attempts

TE Anthony Fasano: Caught 1 pass for 8 yards on 2 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 2 pass block snaps

DT Randy Starks: 1 sack on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

DT Paul Soliai: Did not record a pressure on 14 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

CB Nolan Carroll: Was not thrown on, 4 penalties, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist

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Cincinnati Bengals: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#20)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals

Last week: 26 (+6)

Record: 5-5

The Bengals now stand at 5-5, but I won’t rule them out to be this year’s team that goes from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. The Lions are the favorite and I also won’t rule out that we won’t have one this year, something that’s only happened once in the last decade. However, looking at the Bengals remaining schedule, they’re only definitely going to be favored in one more game, this week at home for Oakland. At Philadelphia and home for Dallas are other options, but if they lost this week, they could conceivably, but improbably, lose out. Will they lose at home this week to the Raiders? I won’t say it’s impossible. Teams are 36-16 ATS off back-to-back losses by 21 or more, a situation the Raiders are in, and the Bengals are just 3-9 ATS as touchdown plus home favorites under Marvin Lewis.

Studs

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis: Rushed for 101 yards (43 after contact) and a touchdown on 25 attempts, 1 broken tackle, caught 1 pass for 7 yards on 1 attempt

LG Clint Boling: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 34 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts

C Trevor Robinson: Did not allow a pressure on 34 pass block snaps, run blocked for 98 yards on 15 attempts

RG Kevin Zeitler: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 34 pass block snaps, run blocked for 18 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts

DT Geno Atkins: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops

RE Michael Johnson: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

SS Nate Clements: Was not thrown on, 5 solo tackles, 1 stop

P Kevin Huber: 6 punts for 322 yards, 3 inside 20, 3 returns for 30 yards, 48.7 net yards per punt

Duds

MLB Rey Maualuga: Allowed 4 catches for 51 yards on 6 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

LE Carlos Dunlap: Did not record a pressure on 33 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

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Buffalo Bills: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#21)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Bills

Last week: 25 (+4)

Record: 4-6

It’s looking more and more likely that Ryan Fitzpatrick will not be back as the starter next season, owed 7.25 million non-guaranteed. GM Buddy Nix is known for being an open book when it comes to his offseason plans and his draft plans in particular. In 2010, he mentioned several times how much he wants one of those really speedy backs. Then with the 9th pick overall, he took CJ Spiller. Last year, he went on and on about the need to add cornerbacks and then drafted 2, including Stephon Gilmore 10th overall.

This year, he’s hinted on several occasions that he’d like to draft a quarterback early in the draft. Fir he said this: “Listen, we have said from day one, that we want to draft a good young quarterback. I don’t want to leave here without a franchise guy for the future in place. I have not said that before but I’m saying it now because it’s fact. Then he said this: “Let me be as honest as I can. I think we really need to address it [the quarterback [position] this year. The thing we can’t do is you can’t create one. You can’t go out, thinking ‘I’ve got to make this guy a player.’ If you do, then you’re going to be in a bigger mess.”

Most recently, he said this about rookie quarterbacks: “You draft them to play them now. You don’t draft them to let them sit. They’re thrown in there, and they’re responding extremely well right now.” If he’s to be believed, and I think he is, it looks like Fitzpatrick will not be brought back in 2013 and that he’ll be replaced by a rookie who will start immediately. It remains to be seen if Head Coach Chan Gailey, one of Fitzpatrick’s biggest backers and the owner of a 14-28 record in 2 ½ season as Head Coach of the Bills, will go with him. I’d say it’s more likely than not that he does.

Buffalo Bills

Studs

RB CJ Spiller: Rushed for 91 yards (65 after contact) on 22 attempts, 8 broken tackles, caught 3 passes for 39 yards on 4 attempts, allowed 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 10 pass block snaps

LG Andy Levitre: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 3 attempts

C Eric Wood: Did not allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 37 yards on 6 attempts

CB Leodis McKelvin: Allowed 2 catches for 21 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 1 penalty, returned 3 kickoffs for 75 yards, returned 3 punts for 98 yards and a touchdown

FS Jairus Byrd: Allowed 1 catch for 2 yards on 2 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

P Shawn Powell: 7 punts for 317 yards, 5 inside 20, 3 returns for 31 yards, 40.9 net yards per punt

Duds

WR Donald Jones: Caught 2 passes for 11 yards on 4 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

WR TJ Graham: Caught 2 passes for 5 yards on 2 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

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Arizona Cardinals: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#22)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals

Last week: 23 (+1)

Record: 4-6

I’ve watched a lot of football, but I saw two things I’ve never seen before in the Falcons/Cardinals game this week. First, Matt Ryan won despite throwing 5 interceptions and no touchdowns, the first time that’s happened since the merger (Bart Starr did it last). Second, the Cardinals benched John Skelton despite a 13-0 lead. I don’t have any facts on that, but I’m willing to bet that doesn’t happen very often and certainly never that I’ve seen. This was also the first time since the 1993 Eagles that a team went 4-0 to start the year and then lost 6 straight (they finished 8-8).

It might have been the right move though. Skelton’s play had absolutely nothing to do with their lead, as he was 2 of 7 for 6 yards at the time of his benching. He’s been horrific this year, completing 54.7% of his passes for an average of 5.9 YPA and 2 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. There were a lot of people who thought he was a potential franchise quarterback over Kevin Kolb in the preseason (including Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt, who made him his week 1 starter), but that looks ridiculous now. Even Kolb has noticeably outplayed him.

Actually, looking back at last year, even though Skelton was 6-2 to Kolb’s 2-6, he was still not the better quarterback. Skelton had the luxury of playing most of his games supported by better defensive play. In Skelton’s 8 games, the Cardinals allowed 19.0 points per game and in Kolb’s they allowed 24.5. Skelton was actually the inferior of the two quarterbacks last season. He led 100 drives last season and the Cardinals scored 16 touchdowns and 11 field goals (129 points, 1.29 points per drive) on those 100 drives. Kolb led 91 drives, leading to 20 touchdowns and 6 field goals (138 points, 1.52 points per drive).

The man he was benched for is probably not much better. Ryan Lindley is actually an eerily similar quarterback to Skelton, he’s big, tall, looks the part, and can make all the throws, but he comes from a small school, has major accuracy issues, and generally deserved to be drafted where he was drafted (Skelton in the 4th, Lindley in the 6th).

Lindley was 9 of 20 for just 64 yards in his debut. The only reason they were competitive was their defense and running game. In 4 years at San Diego State, despite not playing the toughest competition, he never exceeded 60% completion in a single season (57.7% was his career high). He had some awful games against tougher competition, including a horrible game against TCU last year where he was just all over the place with the ball. If he couldn’t complete 60% of his passes in college at San Diego State, how is he going to do so in the NFL and generally you need to do so to be a successful starting quarterback. He was worth a shot in the 6th round and the Cardinals might as well give him a shot, but he should show why he went in the 6th round.

As for the future of their quarterback position, Lindley and Skelton aren’t it. Kolb might be. I know he’s owed a lot of money (11 million), but this isn’t a good offseason to need a quarterback. The draft is weak. Free agency is weak. The trade market is weak. They put a lot of resources into him and he was decent this year despite a horrific offensively line. It might not be the worst idea to focus on the offensive line this offseason, forego adding another quarterback, and see if with a better offensive line, Kolb can be the quarterback they thought he’d be. I don’t think it’s been ruled out yet.

Studs

RB La’Rod Stephens-Howling: Rushed for 127 yards (57 after contact) and a touchdown on 22 attempts, 4 broken tackles, caught 2 passes for 6 yards on 3 attempts, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 5 pass block snaps

RG Adam Snyder: Did not allow a pressure on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 98 yards on 4 attempts

LG Daryn Colledge: Did not allow a pressure on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 3 attempts

MLB Daryl Washington: 10 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops, 1 penalty, 1 quarterback hurry on 15 blitzes, allowed 4 catches for 35 yards on 7 attempts, 1 interception

MLB Paris Lenon: 8 solo tackles, 6 stops, 2 missed tackles, 4 quarterback hurries on 20 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 27 yards on 4 attempts

Duds

QB Ryan Lindley: 9 of 20 for 64 yards, 1 throw away, 54.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 5 of 23 drop backs (3 sacks, 0 of 2)

LT Nate Potter: Allowed 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hit on 32 pass block snaps

WR Larry Fitzgerald: Caught 1 pass for 11 yards on 7 attempts on 32 pass snaps, 7.0 YAC per catch

WR Andre Roberts: Caught 1 pass for 7 yards on 5 attempts on 30 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch

TE Rob Housler: Was not thrown to on 20 pass snaps, 1 penalty

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St. Louis Rams: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Rams

Last week: 20 (-4)

Record: 3-6-1

First they got blown out 45-7 by the Patriots and then everyone soured on this team. Then they tied the 49ers and everyone backed them as home favorites against the Jets. Now they’ve lost to the Jets and the public has soured on them so much they are now road dogs in Arizona against Ryan Lindley, a 6th round rookie making his first career start. That’s football for you. We’ll see if the pattern holds.

Studs

C Robert Turner: Did not allow a pressure on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 81 yards on 9 attempts

LT Rodger Saffold: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 49 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

ROLB Rocky McIntosh: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, was not thrown on

P Johnny Hekker: 5 punts for 250 yards, 1 inside 20, 3 returns for 29 yards, 44.2 net yards per punt

Duds

RB Daryl Richardson: Rushed for 26 yards (12 after contact) on 6 attempts, 2 broken tackles, 1 fumble, 1 penalty, caught 1 pass for 18 yards on 3 attempts, 1 drop, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 8 pass block snaps

DT Kendall Langford: Did not record a pressure on 19 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle

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Detroit Lions: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Lions

Last week: 19 (-6)

Record: 4-6

I’ve said it a bunch of times this year, but every year, one team goes from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. It’s looked like a shaky prediction as times this year, especially since every single playoff team from last year is 5-5 or better right now, except one (Saints and Bengals are both 5-5, so they’re still technically candidates). The Lions are that one team and if you look at their remaining schedule, it’s not hard to imagine some way they go 1-5 over their final 6 games. They host Houston and Indianapolis, go to Green Bay and Arizona, then host Atlanta and Chicago.

Studs

RT Gosder Cherilus: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 49 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 4 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts

WR Calvin Johnson: Caught 5 passes for 143 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts on 49 pass snaps, 4.4 YAC per catch, 1 drop

DT Nick Fairley: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

Duds

QB Matt Stafford: 17 of 39 for 266 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, 2 drops, pressured on 17 of 46 drop backs (5 sacks, 1 scramble, 6 of 11, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception)

RG Stephen Peterman: Allowed 7 quarterback hurries on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 14 yards on 4 attempts

LT Riley Reiff: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 5 yards on 1 attempt

TE Tony Scheffler: Caught 2 passes for 22 yards on 10 attempts on 34 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to

WR Titus Young: Caught 1 pass for 24 yards on 7 attempts on 45 pass snaps, 7.0 YAC per catch, 2 penalties, 1 interception when thrown to

TE Brandon Pettigrew: Caught 4 passes for 22 yards on 6 attempts on 37 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, allowed 1 quarterback hit on 5 pass block snaps

MLB Stephen Tulloch: 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 3 missed tackles, allowed 3 catches for 33 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

RB Stefan Logan: 1 punt return for 0 yards, 1 fumble, 2 kickoff returns for 45 yards

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New York Jets: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Jets

Last week: 27 (+1)

Record: 4-6

The Jets were bound to bounce back last week. Teams that lose back-to-back games by 21 or more go 36-16 ATS in their next game. However, it still isn’t a promising sign going forward. For every one good Mark Sanchez performance, he has 3 bad ones. Don’t believe me? This year he’s had 3 games in which he’s had a QB rating over 90 in which he attempted 20 or more passes (including last week). In the game immediately after the first 2, he was a combined 38 of 81 for 421 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, he led his team to 19 combined points in a 9 point loss and a 21 point loss.

In fact, excluding those 3 games and one in which he passed for just 82 yards, but still had a QB rating over 100 somehow, his season high QB rating was 66.6. This week, on short rest, he gets a red hot and pissed off Patriots team that has added a new #1 cornerback since the last time they played. They’re stuck with Sanchez into 2013 because he’s owed 8.25 million fully guaranteed, but let’s hope that once Rex Ryan and Mike Tannenbaum are fired, the new regime will send Tebow somewhere he can start, because he is one of the top-32 quarterbacks in the NFL.

Studs

QB Mark Sanchez: 15 of 20 for 178 yards and a touchdown, 2 drops, 107.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 4 of 24 drop backs (3 sacks, 0 of 1)

LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson: Did not allow a pressure on 24 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

C Nick Mangold: Did not allow a pressure on 24 pass block snaps, run blocked for 52 yards on 13 attempts

RG Brandon Moore: Did not allow a pressure on 24 pass block snaps, run blocked for 28 yards on 6 attempts

SS Eric Smith: Allowed 2 catches for 17 yards on 7 attempts, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

Duds

WR Stephen Hill: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 11 pass snaps, 1 drop, 1 penalty

LE Mike DeVito: Did not record a pressure on 10 pass rush snaps, 1 missed tackle

MLB Bart Scott: 1 assist, 1 missed tackle, was not thrown on

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