St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks: Week 17 NFL Pick

St. Louis Rams (7-7-1) at Seattle Seahawks (10-5)

Everyone knows about the Seahawks’ home prowess, but it’s really, really significant, possibly even more than people realize. At home, they are 47-20 ATS since 2005, including 6-0 ATS as double digit favorites and 16-3 ATS as touchdown plus home favorites. For contrast, they are 24-43 ATS on the road in that same time period.

On average, they outscore opponents at home by an average of 7.3 points per game. On the road, they are outscored by 5.1 points per game. For this reason, I don’t feel that using 2.5 as a home field adjustment for them is inappropriate. I feel that using 6 (split the difference) or something around there is a more appropriate adjustment (either way: add 6 at home and subtract 6 on the road).

Even using the standard 2.5, we’re getting significant line value with the Seahawks. The Seahawks are all the way in 2nd at net points per drive at 0.90 now, while the Rams are at -0.34 in 24th. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and add that standard 2.5, you get that Seattle should be favored by 16 here. If you use that 6 point adjustment, you get a line of Seattle -19.5. DVOA backs this all up, as Seattle ranks far and away best in both regular and weighted DVOA, while the Rams are 17th and 16th respectively, not bad, but not good enough for me to even consider taking the points here.

For this reason, I don’t even care that this line has moved 3.5 points since last week. Seattle -7.5 was ridiculous anyway. Even Seattle -11 right now is too low for this dominant home team. I don’t care that the public is all over the Seahawks. I don’t care that teams tend to struggle off of back-to-back blowouts. Teams are 28-42 ATS since 1989 off of two straight wins by 24 or more, but the Seahawks were in this spot last week and didn’t seem to care. Now they’re the 6th team since 1989 to have three win straight by that many and just the 2nd (2004 Colts) to win 3 straight by 29 or more. They’re also the first team in that time period to outscore opponents by 120 or more over a 3 game stretch.

I don’t care that the Rams are 10-3 ATS as dogs this year and that they haven’t lost a divisional game and that the Seahawks seem due for a letdown because no one is this good and that everything I normally like to do is telling me to stay away from the Seahawks this week because nothing is this easy. I don’t even care that I don’t like to lay more than a touchdown for a significant play. I’m doing that here. I’m expecting another blowout. There’s just too much line value. The Seahawks are too good at home. And it’s not like Pete Carroll has any qualms about running up the score.

Public lean: Seattle (70% range)

Seattle Seahawks 38 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -11 (-110) 4 units

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Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: Week 17 NFL Pick

Miami Dolphins (7-8) at New England Patriots (11-4)

I can’t handicap week 17 games like I do other games (maybe that’s a good thing because I’ve had a rough few weeks), because one of the things I do is look for upcoming distractions and dynamic changes on their schedule. In week 17, I can’t do that, so instead I have to look at what this game means do these two teams. The Patriots can move into a first round bye here with a win if Houston loses (not completely unlikely) and actually into the #1 seed with a Houston loss and a Denver loss (pretty much completely unlikely). Meanwhile, with a loss, Baltimore could jump them (assuming they beat Cincinnati) and New England could end up as low as 4th.

Obviously, there’s a lot at play for the Patriots, but most of it will be played out before this game even happens. If Houston wins and Baltimore doesn’t in the 1 PM block, the Patriots will be locked into the #3 seed barring a Denver loss as 16 point favorites against the Chiefs (translation, they’re the #3 seed). However, even if Denver gets up big against Kansas City early, the Patriots will not pull their starters. They always go full out for these week 17 games, even the meaningless ones (which this one isn’t completely). Belichick is 9-2 ATS on week 17.

Besides, this team desperately needs a tune up before the playoffs as their last two games have featured a home loss and a “closer than it should have been” game in Jacksonville as 14 point favorites. However, even with last week’s game, the Patriots have no shortage of blowout wins on their schedule, winning 6 games by 21 or more this season and I think it’s very doubtful that Belichick allows the team to have 3 bad games in a row. Since 2008, they’re 6-2 ATS off of back-to-back non-covers, including a 45-7 win against the Rams earlier this year. This situation reminds me a little bit of that. They lost to the Seahawks and then barely beat the Jets, but bounced back in that 3rd game in a huge way.

We’re also getting plenty of line value with the Patriots, more than last week as this line has moved from -12 to -10 because of the Patriots’ less than stellar showing in Jacksonville and because of some unfounded speculation that this game won’t mean anything to the Patriots (even if it technically doesn’t, they won’t care). The calculated line using the net points per drive method is New England -13, with the Patriots 1st in net points per drive and the Dolphins being 15th.

My concerns and reasoning for not making this a significant play are threefold. The first is that the public is all over New England and they always lose money in the long run. The second is that I just generally don’t like laying more than a touchdown in a significant play. The third is the Patriots’ less than stellar ATS record as home favorites of more than a touchdown over the past 3 years. They are 5-9 ATS in that situation, pretty crazy considering they are 24-12 ATS in all other situations over that time period. Still, I like the Patriots this week. I also once again like the over as Patriots’ game, especially in the 2nd half of the season and in the division, tend to go over.

Public lean: New England (70% range)

New England Patriots 31 Miami Dolphins 17

Pick against spread: New England -10 (-110) 2 units

Total: Over 46 (-110) 1 unit

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New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: Week 17 NFL Pick

New York Jets (6-9) at Buffalo Bills (5-10)

Aside from this being a divisional matchup, this is a completely meaningless game for these two teams. Both are out of the playoffs by a long shot and both could easily have new Head Coaches and starting quarterbacks next season. I don’t like to make big plays on games involving two teams completely out of the playoff race. There’s just no way to predict what kind of energy either side of going to come out with. Meaningless games should be completely meaningless to bettors. However, if I had to pick a side, I would take the Jets.

The first reason is that I think they’re a better team, but this line doesn’t show it. In fact, at -3.5, it says the Bills are slightly better which isn’t true. The Jets rank 26th in net points per drive, 25th in DVOA, and 25th in weighted DVOA, while the Bills rank 28th, 24th, and 24th respectively. At best, these two teams are even, but we’re getting line value with the Jets using the net points per drive method. The Jets’ is at -0.39, while the Bills are at -0.64. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that this should be a pick em.

The second reason is that the Jets, for whatever reason, dominate this “rivalry,” winning the last 6, including 5 covers, winning those 6 by an average of 16.8 points for game. The third reason is that, again, for whatever reason, the Bills always seem to struggle late in the season under Chan Gailey, going 4-10 ATS during weeks 13-17 since he took over in 2010. The final reason is that, in spite of all the above stuff, we’re getting a chance to fade the public as the public is all over the Bills. The public always loses money in the long run. Still, I can’t make it a significant play.

Public lean: Buffalo (70% range)

New York Jets 17 Buffalo Bills 16 Upset Pick +155

Pick against spread: NY Jets +3.5 (-110) 2 units

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Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: Week 17 NFL Pick

Chicago Bears (9-6) at Detroit Lions (4-11)

Chicago is in a must win game here, but that doesn’t mean that this means more to them. The Lions would love nothing more here than to play spoiler and eliminate a division rival. However, unlike the Eagles against the Giants, I don’t really like the Lions here. The Bears have won every game this year in which they’ve been favored by more than 4 (going 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS), but in their other 7 games, they’ve won just once, in Dallas, going 1-6 SU and ATS.

In their 7 games in which they’ve been favored by 4 or more, they’ve won 41-21, 23-6, 41-3, 13-7, 23-22, 51-20, and 28-10, 28-13, winning by an average of 18.2 points per game. 6 of those 8 wins were by 15 or more and only the game against Carolina was actually close. They shut out the Lionsfor 59 ½ minutes before they got a backdoor touchdown to push and finish 13-7.

The Lions aren’t 4 point dogs here because they are much better in things like net points per drive, DVOA, and weighted DVOA than their record would suggest, but they are as bad as the teams that the Bears have been 4+ point favorites over, just for a different reason. They just don’t seem to be able to close out games and win when anything is expected of them. As dogs of 3.5 or less or favorites, they are 3-10 ATS this season.

Furthermore, while they are better in net points per drive, DVOA, and weighted DVOA, we’re still not getting any real line value. The Lions may keep it closer than a lot of the bad record teams the Bears have faced this season (because they don’t have a lot of blowout losses), but the Bears should win and cover here as I don’t trust the Lions unless we’re getting a ton of points with them, especially without dynamic interior defensive lineman Nick Fairley (two big losses without him).

Public lean: Chicago (70% lean)

Chicago Bears 24 Detroit Lions 19

Pick against spread: Chicago -3 (-110) 2 units

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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: Week 17 NFL Pick

Houston Texans (12-3) at Indianapolis Colts (10-5)

The Texans need this win to lock up not only the #1 seed, but also a first round bye. If they lose, they’ll need Denver or New England to lose as double digit favorites or they’ll be the #3 seed. The Colts, meanwhile, are locked into the #5 seed, but the Texans are a huge divisional rival who beat the Colts two weeks ago and the Colts would love to play spoiler, knock them out of a first round bye, and pick up a big win and momentum going into the playoffs. They also have Head Coach Chuck Pagano returning from his leukemia treatment this week and they’d undoubtedly love to get a huge emotional home win with him returning. That being said, we might not get a whole game of starters from them.

For that reason, this line has actually moved 3 points from where it was last week, even though the Texans got blown out at home by the Vikings last Sunday. I don’t think that’s right. Playoff bound home dogs are 16-7 ATS during week 17 since 1989. This makes sense for two reasons. The first and most obvious is that they’re too good to be laying points at home before a playoff game. But the second reason is that most of those teams are probably resting starters and teams tend to underestimate playoff bound team’s backups. Playoffs teams tend to be deep and well coached.

Either way, I think that bodes well for the Colts this week, especially given all the intangible things the Colts have to play for, regardless of whether or not the starters do play the whole game. Chuck Pagano did tell the media that he plans to play his starters and play to win the game, saying that its “not in our makeup” to rest anyone, though I suppose he could still pull starters late if it’s a blowout either way, which would greatly decrease the backdoor cover possibility.

However, I don’t think we’re going to get a blowout either way. Certainly I’m not going to pick a Colts’ blowout, but the Texans really aren’t playing well enough to be laying this many points in Indianapolis. Seriously, look at their last 7 games: 13-6 win over the Jay Cutler-less Bears who proved to be not as good as their record, overtime games against Jacksonville and Detroit, a 24-10 win in Tennessee, a blowout loss in New England, a 12 point win over the Colts (more on that later), and a 23-6 home loss to the Vikings.

They really haven’t played good football since they lost Brian Cushing, including a “closer than it should have been” win in New York against the Jets and a home blowout loss against the Packers. They are 12-3, but they rank 8th in the NFL in net points per drive and because of a fairly weak schedule in the AFC South, they’re even worse than that in DVOA, ranking 10th, including 13th in weighted DVOA, which puts greater weight on more recent games.

Back to that Colts game 2 weeks ago, they did win by 12, but that was in Houston and it was closer than the final score. I’ve called the Colts overrated before and I stand by that, but I think Houston is equally overrated for the same reasons, lots of blowout losses and a weak schedule. After all, even though the Bears, Jets, and Patriots all beat the Colts by more than 20 on the road, the Texans beat them by just 12 and now they have to go to Indianapolis, where they Colts have been a lot better than on the road. They are 6-1 there, including their only win over a definite playoff team, the Packers.

It’s rare that this happens (which is why I call the Colts overrated), but we’re actually get line value with the Colts this week because of how overrated the Texans are too. The Colts actually rank 23rd in net points per drive, but if you take the difference between the Colts’ and the Texans’, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game) and add 2.5 points to the Colts’ side for home field, you get that the Texans should be -5.5. It’s a significant play on the Colts.

Public lean: Indianapolis (60% range)

Houston Texans 23 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +7 (-110) 3 units

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Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: Week 17 NFL Pick

Arizona Cardinals (5-10) at San Francisco 49ers (10-4-1)

It’s usually a smart thing to take well coached teams off a loss. They’re generally extra focused in a bounce back game the following week. Bill Belichick is 35-20 ATS off a loss since 2000. Mike McCarthy is 22-13 ATS in that spot since 2006. Mike Tomlin is 17-13 ATS in that spot since 2007. Sean Payton is 20-12 ATS in that spot since 2006. Of the current NFL Head Coaches who have won a Super Bowl with their current team, only Tom Coughlin (27-24 ATS) doesn’t have a very impressive ATS record off a loss.

Jim Harbaugh doesn’t have a Super Bowl ring yet like the 5 I just mentioned, but everything he’s done so far suggests he’ll be in that group someday. He’s already got a very impressive, albeit limited, resume off a loss or tie, going 7-1 ATS and 8-0 SU. That one ATS loss was only because he declined a safety late against Seattle and it could have been a push depending on the line you got (it opened at -7, but went towards -9 before the game and the 49ers won by 7). Not only is he 7-0 in those games, but he’s doing it in impressive fashion, winning by an average of 17.8 points per game.

That being said, these 16.5 points are begging me to take them. This line is ridiculous. It’s the biggest one of the season, even bigger than Denver/Kansas City this week. I know the 49ers are very good and the Cardinals are bad, but it’s not like they’re the best team in the league and the worst team in the league. The Cardinals have lost just 2 games by more than 17 points this season. The biggest line anyone has covered this season is -13 (Houston/Tennessee), as 13+ favorites are 1-5 ATS this season.

Using the net points per drive method of computing line value, we can see the line value. The 49ers rank 5th at 0.70, while the Cardinals rank 25th at -0.34. If you take the difference, multiply it by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game) and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that San Francisco should be -14 here instead of -16.5. That might not seem like a ton, but it’s significant and it makes sense. For some reason, this line has shifted 1.5 points in San Francisco’s favor in the last week as it was -15 last week. All the 49ers have done in the last week is get blown out.

That calculated real line also doesn’t take into account these two teams’ injury situations. Justin Smith is out for the 49ers and in the 6 quarters he’s been out for, they’ve allowed 76 points. You can’t blame that all on Smith’s absence, but, on a defense full of talented players, he was their one irreplaceable player. He is constantly double teamed and frees up Aldon Smith (who has not so coincidentally seen a serious lack of production in the 6 quarters without Justin). Of all the elite pass rushers in the NFL, no one sees double teams less frequently than Aldon Smith, part of the reason why I feel he does not deserve defensive player of the year (which I’ll get into after this week).

Arizona, meanwhile, also has a stud 5-technique, Calais Campbell. He’s returned from injury and their defense has been playing better since, particularly in their last 2 games (he was limited in his first game back). In those 2 games, they’ve allowed a combined 24 points (14 of the Bears’ points were off returns and should not count against the defense). The quarterback situation in Arizona makes them a risk, but we’re getting so many points here that I’m not afraid at all to take the Cardinals, who are 3-0 ATS in the last 2 years as 12+ favorites (including 2 straight up wins).

Public lean: Arizona (50% range)

San Francisco 49ers 20 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Arizona +16.5 (-110) 4 units

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Green Bay Packers: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

Last week: 7 (+6)

Record: 11-4

Net points per drive: 0.50 (6th)

DVOA: 30.0% (5th)

Weighted DVOA: 27.0% (4th)

Studs

QB Aaron Rodgers: 27 of 38 for 342 yards and 3 touchdowns, 2 drops, 1 throw away, 108.2 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 11 of 42 drop backs (1 sack, 2 scramble, 2 of 8, 1 throw away, 1 drop)

WR James Jones: Caught 7 passes for 100 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts on 44 pass snaps, 7.3 YAC per catch

TE Jermichael Finley: Caught 5 passes for 70 yards on 7 attempts on 30 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch

MLB Brad Jones: Allowed 4 catches for 28 yards on 5 attempts, 8 solo tackles, 6 stops, 1 sack on 10 blitzes

CB Sam Shields: Did not allow a completion on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 1 sack on 1 blitz, 1 stop

MLB AJ Hawk: 5 solo tackles, 6 stops, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 6 blitzes, was not thrown on

ROLB Clay Matthews: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hits on 17 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

RE BJ Raji: 3 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

Duds

RT Don Barclay: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 3 quarterback hurries on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

LE Mike Daniels: Did not record a pressure on 21 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

K Mason Crosby: 10 kickoffs, 1 touchback, 60.2 yards per kickoff, 24.9 opponent’s average starting distance, 2/2 FG (26, 48)

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New England Patriots: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

Last week: 2 (+0)

Record: 11-4

Net points per drive: 0.99 (1st)

DVOA: 33.7% (3rd)

Weighted DVOA: 35.9% (3rd)

Studs

SS Patrick Chung: Allowed 1 catch for 5 yards on 5 attempts, 2 interceptions, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 penalty

ROLB Dont’a Hightower: 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 sack on 3 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 31 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection

LE Rob Ninkovich: 7 quarterback hurries on 41 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

Duds

RG Dan Connolly: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

C Ryan Wendell: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 5 attempts

WR Deion Branch: Caught 2 passes for 12 yards on 3 attempts on 23 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch

TE Aaron Hernandez: Caught 1 pass for 13 yards on 4 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 12.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 penalty

DT Vince Wilfork: 2 quarterback hurries on 52 pass rush snaps, 2 penalties, 1 solo tackle, 1 penalty

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

Last week: 3 (+0)

Record: 13-2

Net points per drive: 0.77 (3rd)

DVOA: 11.6% (7th)

Weighted DVOA: 7.3% (11th)

Studs

QB Matt Ryan: 25 of 32 for 279 yards and 4 touchdowns, 105.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 13 of 35 drop backs (1 sack, 1 scramble, 6 of 11, 1 touchdown)

LG Justin Blalock: Did not allow a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 attempt

WR Roddy White: Caught 8 passes for 153 yards and 2 touchdowns on 10 attempts on 32 pass snaps, 7.3 YAC per catch

CB Robert McClain: Allowed 4 catches for 25 yards on 8 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

LE Kroy Biermann: 3 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback hurries on 38 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

Duds

RG Peter Konz: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 3 attempts

TE Tony Gonzalez: Caught 1 pass for 9 yards on 2 attempts on 30 pass snaps, 5.0 YAC per catch

WR Harry Douglas: Caught 2 passes for 6 yards on 2 attempts on 20 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch

FS Thomas DeCoud: Allowed 6 catches for 101 yards on 8 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 penalty

ROLB Stephen Nicholas: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 5 catches for 31 yards on 5 attempts

SS Chris Hope: Allowed 2 catches for 23 yards on 2 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 2 assist, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Sean Weatherspoon: 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 4 missed tackles, allowed 5 catches for 47 yards on 9 attempts

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Houston Texans: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

Last week: 4 (+0)

Record: 12-3

Net points per drive: 0.43 (8th)

DVOA: 9.7% (10th)

Weighted DVOA: 2.5% (13th)

Studs

LG Wade Smith: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 29 yards on 5 attempts

WR Andre Johnson: Caught 7 passes for 97 yards on 9 attempts on 35 pass snaps, 3.6 YAC per catch

CB Kareem Jackson: Allowed 3 catches for 31 yards on 7 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 2 solo tackles

MLB Bradie James: 4 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty, 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 8 blitzes, 1 penalty, allowed 1 catch for 4 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection

MLB Tim Dobbins: 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 6 blitzes, allowed 2 catches for 10 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection

FS Glover Quin: 10 solo tackles, 6 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes, was not thrown on

LOLB Brooks Reed: 1 quarterback hurry on 10 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops

LE JJ Watt: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 33 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

RE Antonio Smith: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 28 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 4 stops

P Donnie Jones: 7 punts for 353 yards, 2 inside 20, 6 returns for 50 yards, 43.3 net yards per punt

Duds

RB Arian Foster: Rushed for 15 yards (23 after contact) on 10 attempts, 2 broken tackles, 1 fumble, caught 2 passes for 14 yards on 2 attempts

RT Derek Newton: Allowed 5 quarterback hurries on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for -4 yards on 1 attempt

RG Ben Jones: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit on 23 pass block snaps, run blocked for -2 yards on 1 attempt

TE Owen Daniels: Caught 3 passes for 27 yards on 7 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 2.7 YAC per catch, 1 drop

TE Garrett Graham: Caught 2 passes for 14 yards on 2 attempts on 16 pass snaps, 3.5 YAC per catch, allowed 2 quarterback hurry on 16 pass block snaps

WR Kevin Walter: Caught 1 pass for 12 yards on 3 attempts on 32 pass snaps, 8.0 YAC per catch

WR DeVier Posey: Caught 1 pass for 6 yards on 5 attempts on 22 pass snaps, 8.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

MLB Darryl Sharpton: 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, allowed 1 catch for 27 yards on 1 attempt

ROLB Whitney Mercilus: 1 quarterback hurry on 24 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 1 penalty

NT Shaun Cody: Did not record a pressure on 11 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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