Month: December 2012

NFL Head Coach Job Security: Likelihood of getting fired

stevenlourie News

Definitely Not*

Bill Belichick

Joe Philbin

Mike Tomlin

John Harbaugh

Marvin Lewis

Gary Kubiak

Chuck Pagano/Bruce Arians

John Fox

Tom Coughlin

Mike Shanahan

Mike McCarthy

Leslie Frazier

Sean Payton**

Mike Smith

Greg Schiano

Jim Harbaugh

Pete Carroll

Jeff Fisher

Probably Not

Dennis Allen

Jason Garrett

Lovie Smith

Jim Schwartz

Maybe Not

Rex Ryan

Mike Munchak

Ken Whisenhunt

Very Likely gone

Chan Gailey

Pat Shurmur

Mike Mularkey

Romeo Crennel

Norv Turner

Andy Reid

Ron Rivera

*=All sections are in no particular order.

**=Sean Payton won’t be fired, but he’s in the final year of his contract. He’ll probably return as Head Coach under a new contract and if he doesn’t, it will because he wants to go elsewhere.

Tennessee Titans: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Titans

Last week: 25 (+0)

Record: 5-10

Net points per drive: -0.89 (31st)

DVOA: -32.5% (31st)

Weighted DVOA: -32.0% (31st)

Studs

LT Michael Roos: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 41 pass block snaps

RT Byron Stingily: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 41 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 3 attempts

LE Derrick Morgan: 2 quarterback hits and 3 quarterback hurries on 36 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

Duds

QB Jake Locker: 13 of 30 for 140 yards, 1 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 1 throw away, 2 batted passes, 3 drops, 60.5 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 16 of 40 drop backs (6 sacks, 1 scramble, 2 of 9, 1 interception, 1 throw away, 1 drop)

RB Chris Johnson: Rushed for 28 yards (15 after contact) on 11 attempts, 1 broken tackle, allowed 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hit on 8 pass block snaps, caught 2 passes for 13 yards on 2 attempts

LG Mitch Petrus: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 22 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 8 yards on 1 attempt

C Kyle DeVan: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit on 19 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

WR Nate Washington: Caught 2 passes for 15 yards on 6 attempts on 37 pass snaps, 3.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

TE Craig Stevens: Caught 1 pass for 7 yards on 2 attempts on 27 pass snaps, 7.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

DT Sen’Derrick Marks: Did not record a pressure on 29 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles

LOLB Zach Brown: 9 solo tackles, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty, 1 quarterback hurry on 11 blitzes, allowed 5 catches for 67 yards on 5 attempts

MLB Will Witherspoon: 5 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 44 yards on 3 attempts

FS Michael Griffin: Allowed 1 catch for 31 yards on 2 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

CB Jason McCourty: Allowed 7 catches for 67 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles

CB Alterraun Verner: Allowed 5 catches for 41 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist

CB Coty Sensabaugh: Allowed 2 catches for 31 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 missed tackle

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Cleveland Browns: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 26 (+0)

Record: 5-10

Net points per drive: -0.21 (22nd)

DVOA: -12.8% (23rd)

Weighted DVOA: -8.2% (22nd)

Studs

SS Eric Hagg: Did not allow a catch on 3 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle

Duds

QB Colt McCoy: 9 of 17 for 79 yards and a touchdown, 1 hit as thrown, 68.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 6 of 21 drop backs (4 sacks, 0 of 2, 1 hit as thrown)

WR Josh Gordon: Caught 1 pass for 7 yards on 2 attempts on 47 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch

CB Buster Skrine: 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, allowed 7 catches for 71 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts, 2 penalties

LOLB Craig Robertson: 12 solo tackles, 3 assists, 3 stops, allowed 4 catches for 68 yards on 5 attempts

CB Sheldon Brown: Allowed 4 catches for 50 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5 attempts, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles

RE Frostee Rucker: Did not record a pressure on 22 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

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Arizona Cardinals: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals

Last week: 27 (+0)

Record: 5-10

Net points per drive: -0.34 (25th)

DVOA: -16.5% (26th)

Weighted DVOA: -23.8% (28th)

Studs

RE Calais Campbell: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 6 stops

Duds

QB Ryan Lindley: 17 of 30 for 141 yards and 1 interception, 2 batted pass, 2 drops, 69.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 32 drop backs (2 sacks, 2 of 6, 1 drop)

QB Brian Hoyer: 11 of 19 for 105 yards and 1 interception, 1 drop, 67.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 21 drop backs (2 sacks, 3 of 6, 1 drop)

RB Beanie Wells: Rushed for 3 yards (4 after contact) on 4 attempts, 1 fumble

RB La’Rod Stephens-Howling: Rushed for 19 yards (20 after contact) on 10 attempts, 4 broken tackles, caught 1 pass for -3 yards on 2 attempts, 1 drop

LT Nate Potter: Allowed 3 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries on 56 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt

ROLB Sam Acho: Did not record a pressure on 16 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

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Detroit Lions: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Lions

Last week: 28 (+0)

Record: 4-11

Net points per drive: -0.11 (20th)

DVOA: 0.0% (15th)

Weighted DVOA: 1.7% (14th)

Detroit

Studs

RT Gosder Cherilus: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 56 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 2 attempts

WR Calvin Johnson: Caught 11 passes for 225 yards on 16 attempts on 54 pass snaps, 8.9 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 1 interception when thrown to, 1 penalty

SS Louis Delmas: Did not allow a catch on 2 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

MLB Stephen Tulloch: 5 solo tackles, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle, 2 quarterback hurries on 7 blitzes, allowed 5 catches for 30 yards on 5 attempts

DT Ndamukong Suh: 1 sack, 3 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 33 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

Duds

RG Stephen Peterman: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 56 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 4 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts

LT Jeff Backus: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 5 quarterback hurries on 56 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards on 4 attempts

TE Will Heller: Caught 4 passes for 34 yards on 7 attempts on 43 pass snaps, 4.8 YAC per catch

TE Tony Scheffler: Caught 4 passes for 41 yards on 6 attempts on 45 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch

WR Kris Durham: Caught 2 passes for 32 yards on 5 attempts on 39 pass snaps, 2.5 YAC per catch

CB Jonte Green: Allowed 7 catches for 106 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty

CB Chris Houston: Allowed 4 catches for 72 yards and 2 touchdowns on 6 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

CB Drayton Florence: Allowed 3 catches for 34 yards on 3 attempts, 3 missed tackles

RE Kyle Vanden Bosch: 1 quarterback hit on 18 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

LE Cliff Avril: Did not record a pressure on 24 pass rush snaps, 1 missed tackle

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Philadelphia Eagles: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles

Last week: 29 (+0)

Record: 4-11

Net points per drive: -0.50 (27th)

DVOA: -19.5% (27th)

Weighted DVOA: -23.5% (27th)

Studs

LT King Dunlap: Did not allow a pressure on 57 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 5 yards on 1 attempt

LG Evan Mathis: Did not allow a pressure on 57 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 attempts

WR Jeremy Maclin: Caught 8 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts on 57 pass snaps, 2.9 YAC per catch

Duds

RT Dennis Kelly: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 6 quarterback hurries on 57 pass block snaps

TE Evan Moore: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 5 pass snaps, 1 drop, 1 penalty

WR Riley Cooper: Caught 1 pass for 18 yards on 2 attempts on 55 pass snaps, 12.0 YAC per catch

SS Colt Anderson: Allowed 2 catches for 39 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 4 missed tackles

LOLB Jamar Chaney: Allowed 1 solo tackle, 3 assists, 1 missed tackle, allowed 2 catches for 27 yards on 2 attempts

MLB DeMeco Ryans: 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 missed tackle, 2 stops, allowed 2 catches for 37 yards on 2 attempts

DT Cullen Jenkins: Did not record a pressure on 15 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle

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Oakland Raiders: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 30 (+0)

Record: 4-11

Net points per drive: -0.80 (29th)

DVOA: -27.7% (29th)

Weighted DVOA: -26.7% (30th)

Studs

FS Matt Giordano: Did not allow a catch on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

LE Lamarr Houston: 1 quarterback hit and 8 quarterback hurries on 35 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

DT Desmond Bryant: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 2 stops

SS Michael Mitchell: 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 penalty, allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 2 attempts, 3 quarterback hurries on 7 blitzes

Duds

RB Darren McFadden: Rushed for 33 yards (28 after contact) on 17 attempts, caught 3 passes for 15 yards on 3 attempts

QB Matt Leinart: 16 of 32 for 115 yards and an interception, 1 drop, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 57.2 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 33 drop backs (1 sack, 6 of 9, 1 hit as thrown)

RT Khalif Barnes: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards on 2 attempts

WR Denarius Moore: Caught 3 passes for 12 yards on 6 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

TE Brandon Myers: Caught 3 passes for 10 yards on 4 attempts on 26 pass snaps, 2.3 YAC per catch, allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 9 pass block snaps

WR Rod Streater: Caught 2 passes for 16 yards on 5 attempts on 26 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

RE Matt Shaughnessy: Did not record a pressure on 11 pass rush snaps, no tackles

ROLB Phillip Wheeler: 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 quarterback hit on 12 blitzes, allowed 2 catches for 34 yards on 2 attempts

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 2-13

Net points per drive: -0.86 (30th)

DVOA: -29.1% (30th)

Weighted DVOA: -26.2% (29th)

Studs

LOLB Russell Allen: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 6 blitzes, allowed 1 catch for 11 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection

LE Jeremy Mincey: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 pass deflection, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 2 stops

DT Terrance Knighton: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 27 pass block snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

P Bryan Anger: 4 punts for 225 yards, 2 inside 20, 3 returns for 42 yards, 45.8 net yards per punt

Duds

QB Chad Henne: 29 of 51 for 348 yards, 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions, 2 drops, 2 spikes, 2 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 68.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 21 of 54 drop backs (1 sack, 2 scrambles, 6 of 18, 2 interceptions, 2 hit as thrown, 1 drop)

RT Guy Whimper: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 5 quarterback hurries on 55 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 2 attempts

RG Uche Nwaneri: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 18 pass block snaps

TE Marcedes Lewis: Caught 4 passes for 27 yards on 5 attempts on 33 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch, 1 penalty, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 9 pass block snaps

WR Cecil Shorts: Caught 6 passes for 54 yards on 11 attempts on 47 pass snaps, 4.3 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to, 1 penalty

FB Greg Jones: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit on 2 pass block snaps, rushed for 0 yards on 1 attempt, run blocked for 13 yards on 3 attempts, caught 1 pass for 6 yards on 1 attempt

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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 2-13

Net points per drive: -0.90 (32nd)

DVOA: -38.4% (32nd)

Weighted DVOA: -34.9% (32nd)

Kansas City

Studs

RB Jamaal Charles: Rushed for 228 yards (43 after contact) and a touchdown on 22 attempts, 1 broken tackle, 1 fumble, caught 1 pass for 4 yards on 3 attempts

RB Peyton Hillis: Rushed for 101 yards (60 after contact) on 15 attempts, 4 broken tackles

RG Jon Asamoah: Did not allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 2 attempts

CB Brandon Flowers: Allowed 5 catches for 46 yards on 11 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 sack on 1 blitz

LOLB Justin Houston: 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

Duds

QB Brady Quinn: 10 of 22 for 162 yards, 2 interceptions, 1 throw away, 1 drop (51.6 adjusted QB rating), pressured on 12 of 26 drop backs (1 sack, 3 scrambles, 1 of 8, 2 interceptions, 1 throw away)

LT Donald Stephenson: Allowed 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 61 yards on 6 attempts, 3 penalties

LG Jeff Allen: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 29 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 28 yards on 6 attempts

TE Steve Maneri: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 22 pass block snaps

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Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 17 NFL Picks, Eagles, Giants

Philadelphia Eagles (4-11) at New York Giants (8-7)

The Giants are in a must win game here, but that doesn’t mean that this means more to them. The Eagles would love nothing more here than to play spoiler and eliminate a division rival. That being said, I actually really like the Eagles here. There’s absolutely no pressure on them, while all the pressure is on the Giants. This is normally a good situation for a divisional dog.

The Eagles generally do well in these low pressure situations under Andy Reid. They’re 15-6 ATS as dogs of a touchdown or dog in the Andy Reid era, including 8-2 ATS in the division. Here, they are 7.5 point dogs (more nfl odds here). As bad as they’ve been this year, this year hasn’t been any different in that regard. They have covered both times as touchdown dogs this season, including a road win in Tampa Bay and a cover in Dallas in a divisional contest.

The Giants, meanwhile, are terrible in “easy win” situations, especially at home and especially in the 2nd half of the season (under Coughlin they are 53-19 ATS in the first 8 games of the season and 29-42 in the 2nd). They are 5-10 ATS as 2nd half home favorites of 4 or more under Tom Coughlin, including 2-6 ATS in the division. The Eagles also generally dominate the Giants, going 7-2 ATS against team since the start of the 2008 season. As bad as they’ve been this season, they actually beat them way back in week 4.

Yes, they were 3-1 at the time, but they weren’t playing good football, getting blown out in Arizona and beating Cleveland and Baltimore by a point a piece. Right now, they’re not playing great football either, but they’re not as bad as they once were. In their last 5 games, they have just one loss by more than 8 points, which was a weird Thursday Night game in which they were unfocused on a short week (having played 3 games in 11 days) and blew a 13-10 lead by turning it over 4 times in 5 plays.

It’s not like they’ve been playing easy teams either. They kept it within a touchdown of both the Cowboys and Redskins, who are actually ahead of the Giants in the standings. They beat Tampa Bay, who was playing well at the time, and they hung within 8 of a Carolina team that was about to go on a 4-1 stretch.

They’ll be going back to Michael Vick this week with Foles injured, but I have a feeling we’re going to get a great performance from him in an audition for a starting job after he’s been stewing on the bench for a few weeks. Maybe that was the wakeup call he needed. He was 19 of 30 for 241 yards (with 49 rushing yards) and a touchdown against these Giants in a win earlier this year. Expect him to be just good enough to trick some crappy quarterback needy team into paying him too much money this offseason (sorry Cardinals/Chiefs/Browns/Bills/Jaguars/Raiders/Jets fans).

The Giants, meanwhile, are not playing well at all right now, losing their last two games by a combined score of 67-14. Against Baltimore, they were outgained 533-186. Only the Bills, in a 45-3 loss in San Francisco, have been outgained by more in a game this season than the Giants were last week. Their last win was a game against the Saints in which they became the first team in 12 years to have 400+ return yards. That’s not going to be here to bail them out. They’re in no position to be laying more than a touchdown. I’m taking the points for a big play. The Giants, however, are my last survivor pick of the season.

New York Giants 27 Philadelphia Eagles 24 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, PIT, DAL, DEN, DET, SEA, STL, IND)

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +7.5 (-110) 4 units

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