Year: 2012

Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bills, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (8-5) at Buffalo Bills (5-8)

The Seahawks have the biggest home/road disparity over the last few years. They are 23-43 ATS on the road and 46-20 ATS at home since 2005. This year, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS at home, including 3-0 SU as home dogs, but on the road they are 3-4 ATS. That might not sound bad, until we take a closer look.

Two of those covers were in their 2nd straight road game and teams generally cover as road dogs off a road loss. The Seahawks are an even worse 16-31 ATS on the road directly after a home game since 2005, a situation they’re in this week. The other cover was a 7 point loss in San Francisco as 7.5 point dogs, which should have been a 9 point loss and non-cover, but Jim Harbaugh strangely declined a safety. They still struggled mightily offensively, scoring just 6 points and it was on a Thursday Night, when weird stuff happens.

The point remains, the Seahawks are not a good road team. They are 1-3 ATS on the road off a home game this year, with that one cover being the San Francisco game and more importantly, they are 0-3 ATS and SU as road favorites this year. Since 2005, they are 6-12 ATS as road favorites. Russell Wilson completes 61.3% of his passes for an average of 8.7 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 1 interception at home, but 64.1% for an average of 6.8 YPA, 8 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions on the road.

At first glance, we are getting line value with Seattle. The Seahawks rank 5th in net points per drive at 0.61, while the Bills rank 26th at -0.41. If you take the difference and add multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game) and add 2.5 points to Buffalo’s side for home field, you get that Seattle should be favorites of 8.5.

That holds up somewhat to DVOA, as Seattle rank 2nd in both regular and weighted and Buffalo ranks 21st in regular and 17th in weighted (more on that later). Both teams are noticeably better in DVOA than net points per drive, though Buffalo slightly more so. As well as that, Seattle’s consistent road struggles need to be taken into account. On the road, they get outscored by 6 points per game and at home they outscore teams by 7 points per game over the past 7 years. Instead of using 2.5 for home field, we should use 6.5. If we do that, the real line is at -4.5 and that doesn’t take into account that Buffalo is playing solid football right now and has a decent weighted DVOA.

Since the bye, they lost by 12 against Houston in Houston, but should have covered the 10.5 point spread if not for a missed easy field goal. The next week, they lost by 6 in New England as 11 point dogs and were actually driving for a potential game winning score late. They then won against Miami at home and lost by a special teams touchdown in Indianapolis. They followed that up by blowing out the Jaguars and losing to an also underrated Rams team at home in a game they led most of the way.

Ever since Mario Williams had that minor wrist surgery during the bye, he’s been playing so much better and they’ve consequently held 5 of their last 6 opponents under 21. As a result, they have been competitive in all 6 games. Seattle, meanwhile, is without stud cornerback Brandon Browner with a suspension. They obviously didn’t miss him against Arizona because their quarterbacks are so terrible, but Ryan Fitzpatrick can take advantage of holes in a secondary if there are some. The line doesn’t take that into account, I believe.

The Seahawks are also potentially in a bad spot as teams are 33-63 ATS as non-conference favorites before being divisional dogs since 2002, including 2-9 ATS as road non-conference favorites before being home divisional dogs. If we go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size, that trend is 3-17 ATS. The Panthers lost in Kansas City in this spot a few weeks ago. The early line for next week has the Seahawks as 1 point home dogs for the 49ers next week, which would count. They may end up being favorites when all is said and done, but you can’t deny that they might overlook “crappy,” unfamiliar, non-conference Buffalo with that game next on the schedule.

We’re also getting a major overreaction line here as the Seahawks were just -3 a week ago and now they’re -6. I’m not surprised they blew out the Cardinals at home. They’re a good home team. Did we forget they lost in Miami two weeks ago despite having a 22-3 ATS trend on their side (road favorites off a bye)? This has given us line value and, in spite of this, the public is pounding Seattle and the public always loses money in the long run. On top of that, the Seahawks are in a potentially very bad spot.

It’s worth noting that this game is in Toronto, not Buffalo, where the Bills play one home game per year. That may have an impact, but they’ve never really played noticeably worse there than at home, granted in a small sample size. Toronto isn’t that far away and there’s lots of Bills fans there. I’m also worried about getting in the way of Seattle right now, especially since one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye every season and the only way that happens this year is if Seattle or Chicago win out. However, +6 is just too good to pass up. I’m very grateful for that huge line movement. It gives us enough room that, even if Seattle wins, the Bills could very well cover.

Public lean: Seattle (70% range)

Seattle Seahawks 20 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo +6 (-110) 3 units

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Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Jaguars

Detroit Lions (4-9) at Arizona Cardinals (4-9)

One of the most powerful trends is known as the six and six trend. This says that teams that finish 6-10 or worse struggle to cover as favorites of 6 or more, going 23-64 ATS since 2002. The Lions are currently 4-9 and need to win out to finish better than 6-10 and even if they win this week, there’s no way they’ll win out against Atlanta and Chicago. Not only are they 6 point favorites here, they are 6 point favorites on the road. I know the Cardinals aren’t very good, but you kind of have to be not very good to be dogs of 6 or more against a team that’s going to finish 6-10 or worse, so this definitely applies in this situation, even after Arizona lost 58-0 last week.

In fact, the fact that the Cardinals lost 58-0 last week makes it more likely they’ll cover this week. Teams are undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in this situation. Teams are 41-21 ATS since 2002 off a loss of 35+. They’re definitely undervalued as the line has moved from -3 to -6.5 in the past week, which is a complete overreaction. I know the Cardinals suck, but didn’t we know that last week? A 3.5 point line movement is ridiculous. No one deserves to be 6.5 point home dogs to the Lions.

Further illustrating that the Cardinals don’t deserve to be 6.5 point home dogs here, we’re getting significant line value with them. The Lions actually rank 14th in net points per drive at 0.09 because they’ve had a lot of close losses, while the Cardinals rank 28th at -0.43, even after their huge loss last week. If we take the difference, multiply by 11 (average amount of drives per game per team) and move the line in Arizona’s favor 2.5 points for home field, we get that Detroit should be -3, which is where this line was last week, which is more reasonable. After all, of the Lions 4 wins, only one came by more than 4 points.

So we’ve established they’re undervalued, let’s move on to overlooked. The Lions are coming off a close loss as big dogs against the division rival Packers and next have to face the Falcons and Bears. Why would they care about the crappy Cardinals, especially off that huge loss? There are a bunch of trends corresponding to this situation.

Teams are 20-32 ATS as non-divisional favorites off a loss by 7 or less as divisional dogs of 6+ since 1989. Teams are 3-7 ATS as road favorites of 6+ off of being road dogs of 6+ since 1989. Teams are 70-106 ATS as road favorite before being home dogs since 1989. Teams are 5-16 ATS as road favorites before being home dogs in 2+ straight since 1989. Arizona is also in the sandwich situation. Teams are 59-85 ATS since 2008 as favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs, including 44-67 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or less. This is a huge breather spot for them in a tough stretch of their schedule.

So we’ve established they’re undervalued and will be overlooked. How about embarrassed? Well, they’ll definitely be embarrassed off of that loss. It’s just common sense and that does affect you on the football field. That aforementioned 41-21 ATS trend demonstrates this. These guys are professionals playing for jobs and money and respect and whatever. This game reminds me of the Jets covering as 9 point home dogs against Houston after getting shutout at home by the 49ers the week before in a 34-0 loss. We’re also getting a chance to fade a very heavy public lean in Detroit and the public always loses money in the long run.

All the trends say Arizona is the right side and they’re in an unbelievably good spot. Ordinarily, I would make Arizona a 5 unit pick of the week or even a 6 unit co-pick of the year (only used once this year, New England +3 at Baltimore, a 30-29 New England loss and cover). On paper, I love the Cardinals so much. However, I just can’t trust Arizona’s quarterbacks for that much. It also kind of worries me that the Lions have already covered once as 6 point road favorites in Jacksonville earlier this year, but I think the Cardinals are a better team than the Blaine Gabbert led Jaguars (they have a better defense and almost beat Atlanta a few weeks ago) and they’re in a much better spot. It’s a 4 unit co-pick of the week on Arizona.

Public lean: Detroit (90% range)

Detroit Lions 16 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Arizona +6.5 (-110) 4 units

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Carolina Panthers at San Diego Chargers: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Chargers, Panthers

Carolina Panthers (4-9) at San Diego Chargers (5-8)

I picked the Chargers to win at home against the Ravens and Bengals respectively in week 12 and 13 because, among other reasons, they always start playing really well at this point in the season, even when their season has been lost. Well, they couldn’t quite close the deal in either of those games, though they made it close and probably should have beaten the Ravens, but Ray Rice converted an improbable (and maybe poorly called) 4th and 29. Because of this, I stayed away from them in Pittsburgh last week, even though all the trends said they’d cover. Well, what did they do? They not only covered as 7.5 point dogs, but dominated the game, even leading 27-3 at one point.

Finally, it appears they’ve gone on their late season run and I can say with as much confidence as I can about a team that’s burned me before this season that the Chargers have a good chance to now win out with games against the Panthers, Jets, and Raiders. They should continue that momentum from last week. They are now 22-10 ATS in week 14 or later, including 7-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons, even though they’ve had nothing to play for. At home, they are 12-5 ATS.

We’re also getting line value with the Chargers. They rank 18th in net points per drive at -0.08, while the Panthers rank 23rd at -0.38. If you take the difference and multiply that by 11 and add 2.5 points for home field, you get a real line of San Diego -6. In spite of that, they are not a publicly backed favorite as the public is on Carolina. I hate publicly backed dogs, so that’s another reason to take San Diego. They’re also in a bad spot as non-conference road dogs of 3 or more are 10-20 ATS since 1989 off a divisional win as home dogs of 3 or more.

This would be a bigger play on the Chargers if not for a few things. One, I’ve obviously been burned with them before. It’s hard to trust them. Maybe now that they got their one big win as big dogs they’ll go back to the way they were before and struggle to win in a new dynamic in a game they’re supposed to win or at least keep close.

The second reason is that a good trend is on Carolina’s side. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 seasons and they host the Raiders next week. When the opponent will next be dogs, teams are 116-59 ATS in that spot since 2008 and the Chargers go to New York to play the Jets next week. When all 3 games (current, next, opponent’s next) are non-divisional, that trend is 35-15 ATS since 2008.

Third, while net points per drive says we’re getting line value with the Chargers, DVOA paints a different picture. The Panthers rank 16th in DVOA and weighted DVOA, while the Chargers rank 23rd and 22nd respectively. DVOA is net points per drive based, but takes into account other things like schedule. This makes sense as the Panthers are in the much tougher NFC (AFC teams are 6-12 ATS against NFC teams as favorites this season) and also are in one of the tougher divisions, the NFC South, while the Chargers are in the weak AFC West. The AFC West is 5-9 SU and 6-8 ATS against the NFC South this year, 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS excluding the Broncos. Still, the Chargers are the pick.

Public lean: Carolina (60% range)

San Diego Chargers 27 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against spread: San Diego -3 (-110) 2 units

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) at Dallas Cowboys (7-6)

After the Steelers’ loss last week, I was expecting them to be dogs here, especially after the Cowboys big win as dogs last week. There was no early line last week because Ben Roethlisberger’s status was still in doubt so I didn’t know really what to expect in terms of this line. I was expecting them to be dogs, though dogs of less than 3, but I still was expecting to take them for a big play for a variety of reasons.

The first is that the Cowboys have really struggled as home favorites since they opened the new Cowboy Stadium in 2009, going 9-18 ATS. They’ve already lost to the Redskins and Bears in this situation this year and barely beat the Buccaneers and the crappy Eagles and Browns. Meanwhile, the Steelers are very good in the Mike Tomlin era off a loss as favorites, as well coached teams generally do. They are 13-7 ATS, including 3-0 ATS as dogs.

Meanwhile, teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011 and the Steelers host the Bengals next week and will be favored. The Cowboys also suck after week 13 in the Tony Romo era, going 11-20 ATS in week 14 or later. They won in this spot last week, but they were playing purely with emotion after what happened the day before with Josh Brent and Jerry Brown. Now that they’ve had a week for it to settle in, they could really struggle like the Colts did after they beat the Packers and like the Chiefs did last week. The Steelers are also healthier than they were last week with LaMarr Woodley returning and David DeCastro making his season debut. The Cowboys could be missing top receiver Dez Bryant.

However, it appears the Steelers are favored by 1.5, which changes things. The Cowboys are now home dogs, a situation they are actually 2-1 ATS in since 2009. The Steelers are 5-15 ATS as non-divisional road dogs in the Mike Tomlin era. The Cowboys are also now the ones who are dogs before being favorites as they are dogs here, but they are expected to be home favorites for the Saints next week. The line value has also shifted in their favor because the real line is a pick em, based on the net points per drive method. That does hold up to DVOA, as well. Finally, the Steelers are publicly backed (though not a huge public lean) and the public always loses money in the long run.

I’m still taking the Steelers. They are still good off a loss as favorites, even as favorites. The Cowboys still struggle to cover at home. They may be good as home dogs, but it’s a limited sample size. They also still struggle in December and they could be in a bad spot now that the Josh Brent and Jerry Brown situation has settled in. They may be missing Dez Bryant as well.

The Steelers, on the other hand, might be healthier than they’ve been all season. This will be the first time all season that Ben Roethlisberger, Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, and LaMarr Woodley will play in the same game. Ike Taylor may be out, which hurts, but this is still the healthiest they’ve been all season sadly. The real line doesn’t take that into account, so we still may be getting line value with the Steelers. While the Steelers struggle as non-divisional road dogs, they are 1-1 ATS in that situation off a loss. This is a must win off a loss, so I can’t see them overlooking the Cowboys like they might in another situation. Teams are 99-62 ATS since 2002 as non-conference favorites before being divisional favorites.

Finally, while the Steelers aren’t dogs, the line is still below 3 and since I would have loved the Steelers as dogs, it doesn’t make sense to just take the Cowboys because the Steelers are now favorites of less than 3. It’s just not a significant play anymore. This reminds me of Giants/Cowboys a few weeks ago, when I wanted to take the Giants for a big play, expecting them to be dogs, but they ended up being road favorites. I still took them anyway for a small play and they covered.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (60% range)

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -1.5 (-110) 2 units

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Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Raiders

Kansas City Chiefs (2-11) at Oakland Raiders (3-10)

I picked the Chiefs as 6.5 point dogs last week in Cleveland because they were in such a good spot, but I made sure not to make it a huge play because I wasn’t sure how they’d respond once they had a week for the Jovan Belcher situation to settle in. In hindsight, I probably should have avoided the game entirely like I did the week before. However, 2 weeks after the incident, I don’t think that situation is relevant to purely picking games. Obviously, it’s still a relevant situation, but I don’t think it will affect them in any possible significant negative or positive ways on the field.

That’s good because I really like the Chiefs again this week. Their loss last week in Cleveland actually opened up a good situation for them this week. Road dogs are 86-50 ATS off a road loss since 2008. The Raiders, on the other hand, are in a bad situation. Teams are 59-85 ATS in what I call the sandwich situation since 2008, favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs, including 44-67 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or less. For good teams, this game is a breather. For bad teams, well, they shouldn’t be favored. Bad teams have issues covering as favorites, which shouldn’t be too surprising.

Further proving that, the Raiders, who haven’t had a winning season since the 2002 season, are 9-28 ATS as favorites since the start of the 2003 season, their first in a long line of non-winning seasons. Meanwhile, teams are 16-26 ATS as favorites off 4 straight losses as dogs since 1989. The real line for this game, using the net points per drive method, is Oakland -3, which is what this line is (and it holds up to DVOA), but the fact remains: bad teams cannot be trusted to consistently cover.

One more trend works in Kansas City’s favor. Teams are 52-25 ATS as divisional road dogs trying to avenge a same season loss as home favorites. The Chiefs lost as home favorites to the Raiders a few weeks ago, but teams rarely sweep the season series in a divisional matchup when the talent level is equal and I think it is between these two teams. The Chiefs loss as home favorites to the Raiders a few weeks ago also points back to what I was just talking about: that bad teams cannot be counted on to consistently cover as favorites.

I’ve been hesitant to bet heavily on the Chiefs in the past when all the trends were on their side because they’re such a mistake prone team. However, the Raiders are equally mistake prone. They really have no business being favored. The Chiefs can make a bunch of mistakes and still win this game because the Raiders probably will do the same thing too. I also like that the Raiders are a heavy public lean. The public always loses money in the long run. It’s a significant play on the Chiefs.

Public lean: Oakland (70% range)

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Oakland Raiders 16 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: Kansas City +3 (-110) 4 units

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San Francisco 49ers at New England Patriots: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, 49ers, Patriots

San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1) at New England Patriots (10-3)

Normally, I like betting against big line movements because they tend to be overreactions based off 1 week. Last week, this line was -3 and now it’s -5, which is a pretty significant line movement. However, that’s reasonable in this case. Teams normally carry the momentum of a big MNF win into the next week. Teams are 28-11 ATS off a MNF win of 21+ since 2002.

Besides, all the line movement did was move the line to where it should be. These are the top 2 teams in the NFL, in my opinion, but everything suggests that the Patriots, right now, are the league’s best team. They are +198 in points differential. The 49ers are next closest at +132. The Patriots rank 1st in net points per drive, DVOA, and weighted DVOA and all 3 by a fairly good margin.

The Patriots are at 1.17 in net points per drive, while the 49ers, who are 2nd, are at 0.95. If you take the difference between those, multiply by 11 (the amount of average drives per team per game), and add 2.5 points for home field (I’ve started using 2.5 instead of 3 because home field advantage has been slightly less significant over the past 5-10 years), you get that New England should be 5 point favorites, which is right where this line is.

DVOA supports this at least and may even suggest this line should be higher. While the Patriots are clear #1 in DVOA and weighted DVOA, the 49ers are 4th in both. There’s nothing wrong with this line movement, especially considering how good teams are off a MNF blowout. It’s also good that the Patriots still aren’t a huge public lean or anything because the 49ers are certainly a respectable team in the public’s eye. I hate picking heavy public leans.

I really don’t want to bet against the Patriots right now anyway. The Patriots are not a smart team to bet against after week 9. In the last 3 seasons between weeks 10 and 17, they are 21-0, outscoring opponents by an average of 20 points per game, with the average final score being 38-18. Even taking the spread into account, they are 14-7 ATS.

Going off of that, Tom Brady is deadly at home in December. The last time he lost a December home game was 2002, his 2nd season in the league and not so coincidentally, the only season in his career as a starter in which he didn’t make the playoffs. That’s his only career December home loss. In fact, in his career, he has a record of 25-2 at home between weeks 13 and 17.

The only two losses were that aforementioned 2002 loss to the Jets and a 2005 loss to the Dolphins, which was actually in January. The fact that it was in January may or may not matter, but the fact remains, when the temperature gets cold, he’s always gotten red hot. If you add in home playoff games, that record grows to 37-6. It’s supposed to snow for this game and the 49ers haven’t played in snow in the Jim Harbaugh era.

They are playing especially well lately, on both sides of the ball, thanks to the addition of Aqib Talib and emergence of Alfonzo Dennard at cornerback. This has allowed Kyle Arrington to move to the slot and Devin McCourty to move to safety, where they’re better fits. They’re allowing just 18.3 points per game since adding Talib. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 57.8% of their passes for an average of 7.2 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions over those 4 games. They can run the football (7th in the league in rushing yards) and they’re at least decent defensively. They’re so much more complete than they have been in recent years.

The 49ers are in a good spot because they are dogs and the early lines for next week says that they will be favorites in Seattle. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011. However, that early line is only -1 and they could easily not be favorites given how Seattle is playing and how the Patriots are playing right now.

If they are dogs, that actually puts them in a bad spot this week. Teams are 44-69 ATS as non-divisional road dogs before being divisional road dogs since 2002. They’re not going to overlook the Patriots or anything, but after this game they actually have a game that’s probably more important. They might be a little bit less focused in the week prior for this game than the Patriots, who have nothing to worry about until the playoffs as they finish up with Jacksonville and Miami.

The Patriots will be extra focused and they are in a great spot this week. Favorites are 33-17 ATS before being double digit road favorites since 2002 and the Patriots are projected early to be 14 point favorites in Jacksonville. Meanwhile, teams are 100-56 ATS since 1989 before being double digit favorites in their next two games and they will probably be double digit favorites at home for Miami week 17 as well. It’s a significant play on the Patriots.

Public lean: New England (60% range)

New England Patriots 27 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against spread: New England -5 (-110) 3 units

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New England Patriots: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots

Last week: 1 (+0)

Record: 10-3

Net points per drive: 1.17 (1st)

DVOA: 41.8% (1st)

Weighted DVOA: 45.8% (1st)

Tom Brady improved to 26-11 in his career against teams with a better record than his with his win over the Texans last week. That’s unreal. The Patriots are +198 on the season. The 49ers are closest at +132. They already have wins over the Texans and Broncos and if they beat the 49ers this week, they’ll have wins against 3 of the other 4 top-5 NFL teams and will be convincing favorites.

New England

Studs

LT Nate Solder: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

LG Logan Mankins: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 25 yards on 6 attempts

QB Tom Brady: 21 of 35 for 296 yards and 4 touchdowns, 2 hit as thrown, 3 drops, 98.4 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 37 drop backs (1 sack, 1 scramble, 2 of 8, 2 hit as thrown)

WR Brandon Lloyd: Caught 7 passes for 89 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts on 41 pass snaps, 1.3 YAC per catch

CB Alfonzo Dennard: Allowed 3 catches for 31 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops

ROLB Dont’a Hightower: Allowed 4 catches for 15 yards on 4 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 6 stops, 1 penalty, 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 16 blitzes

FS Devin McCourty: Allowed 2 catches for 20 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception, 5 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

DT Vince Wilfork: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

RG Dan Connolly: 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 43 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 17 yards on 5 attempts

WR Wes Welker: Caught 3 passes for 52 yards on 8 attempts on 40 pass snaps, 9.7 YAC per catch, 3 drops

MLB Brandon Spikes: 1 solo tackle, allowed 2 catches for 43 yards on 2 attempts

LE Trevor Scott: 1 quarterback hurry on 20 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

San Francisco 49ers: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers

Last week: 2 (+0)

Record: 9-3-1

Net points per drive: 0.95 (2nd)

DVOA: 34.8% (4th)

Weighted DVOA: 33.9% (4th)

Nothing has changed. I still feel this week’s Patriots/49ers game will be a Super Bowl preview and I think the winner will be the Super Bowl favorite. Right now, the Patriots are the favorites to win the game and to eventually go all the way, but you can’t count this team out, obviously

Studs

RB Frank Gore: Rushed for 63 yards (30 after contact) and a touchdown on 12 attempts, 3 broken tackles, caught 2 passes for 22 yards on 2 attempts

QB Colin Kaepernick: 18 of 23 for 185 yards, 1 throw away, 98.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 27 drop backs (4 sacks, 7 of 8), rushed for 53 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts

WR Michael Crabtree: Caught 9 passes for 93 yards on 10 attempts on 25 pass snaps, 5.6 YAC per catch

CB Chris Culliver: Did not allow a catch on 4 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle

MLB Patrick Willis: 6 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hit on 5 blitzes, allowed 2 catches for 10 yards on 3 attempts

ROLB Aldon Smith: 2 sacks and 4 quarterback hurries on 33 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 stops

Duds

RG Alex Boone: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hurry, and 1 quarterback hit on 28 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 28 yards on 2 attempts

RT Anthony Davis: Allowed 2 sacks and 2 quarterback hits on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 attempts

TE Vernon Davis: Caught 1 pass for 4 yards on 2 attempts on 26 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

FS Dashon Goldson: Allowed 3 catches for 45 yards on 5 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Ahmad Brooks: Did not record a pressure on 35 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

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Houston Texans: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Texans

Last week: 3 (+0)

Record: 11-2

Net points per drive: 0.55 (6th)

DVOA: 15.1% (8th)

Weighted DVOA: 13.6% (8th)

The Texans can win out pretty easily because I don’t think the Colts are as good as their record and finish 14-2 and get the #1 seed (their other game is against Minnesota). That would probably send the Patriots to Houston in the AFC Championship, but after the Patriots showed them who the big boys in the AFC are, it’s hard to believe they’d win that game. They could. Teams are actually 8-4 ATS in the playoffs avenging a loss of 21+ or more in the regular season (though 4-8 SU), but the Patriots look like the inferior team right now.

Studs

LG Wade Smith: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

C Chris Myers: Did not allow a pressure on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 51 yards on 15 attempts

WR Andre Johnson: Caught 8 passes for 95 yards on 10 attempts on 34 pass snaps, 4.5 YAC per catch

LE JJ Watt: 4 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 36 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

Duds

RT Ryan Harris: Allowed 3 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 14 yards on 3 attempts

WR Kevin Walter: Did not catch a pass on 3 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to, 1 penalty

FS Glover Quin: Allowed 2 catches for 48 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 penalty, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

MLB Tim Dobbins: 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles, allowed 2 catches for 27 yards on 2 attempts

NT Shaun Cody: Did not record a pressure on 17 pass rush snaps, no tackles

RE Antonio Smith: 1 quarterback hurry on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 4 (+0)

Record: 11-2

Net points per drive: 0.54 (7th)

DVOA: 5.2% (11th)

Weighted DVOA: 0.6% (14th)

It’s not so much concerning that the Falcons lost in Carolina than it is that no one was really surprised. The Patriots lost to the Cardinals. The 49ers lost to the Rams. The Giants lost to the Redskins twice last season. But it wasn’t surprising because they’ve been playing inferior teams close all season. It was only a matter of time before one of them beat them. I still don’t believe they can turn it on when it counts in the playoffs and win 3 straight against playoff caliber opponents. They have arguably the toughest test of the season this week at home for the Giants.

Atlanta

Studs

RB Jacquizz Rodgers: Rushed for 21 yards (13 after contact) on 4 attempts, 1 broken tackle, caught 6 passes for 43 yards on 7 attempts

LG Justin Blalock: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 54 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 1 attempt

WR Roddy White: Caught 9 passes for 117 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts on 52 pass snaps, 1 interception when thrown to, 1.8 YAC per catch

Duds

C Todd McClure: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 54 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

SS Chris Hope: 2 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles, allowed 1 catch for 8 yards on 2 attempts

MLB Akeem Dent: 6 solo tackles, 3 assists, 1 stop, allowed 2 catches for 59 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts

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