Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-9)
After the Eagles’ 31-6 loss in Washington week 11, I assumed the Eagles had quit. They were losers of 6 straight, including 4 or more by 13 or more. It was Andy Reid’s first 6 game losing streak of his career and a team that had always gotten better as the season wore on and always played well when their backs were against the wall was no longer doing that. I picked them against Washington because all the trends said they should cover the spread, but they got blown out. News broke that Andy Reid was hesitant to bench Michael Vick for Nick Foles earlier in the year for fear that most of the veterans would quit on the team and it looked like, after Foles’ first career start, that had happened.
I was hesitant to bet heavily against the Eagles the following week against Carolina because I felt it was such an overreaction line and because I thought maybe the Eagles would give a damn on national TV as home dogs against a 2 win Panthers team. I even picked them the following week for a small play against the Cowboys because all the trends said so and because I felt that they’d once again give a damn in a nationally televised game as big underdogs against a division rival, but I refused to take them last week in a non-televised game in Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers, who they shouldn’t really care about. I knew there was a strong chance they would go back to not caring, though I didn’t make a big play on Tampa Bay either.
The Eagles not only covered the 7.5 point spread in Tampa Bay, but beat the formerly 6-6 Buccaneers, a team who hasn’t lost by more than 8 points all season, who should be better than their record. With the exception of Nick Foles first NFL start, the Eagles are actually playing legitimately decent football right now. That loss to Washington is excusable now as it was just Foles’ first NFL start. In 3 games since, he’s 70 of 105 (66.7%) for 751 yards (7.2 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. He’s faced the 16th, 25th, and 30th ranked defense over those 3 games, but that’s still impressive.
Bryce Brown is running better than LeSean McCoy had all year and some of the young players like him and Foles are playing really hard now that they’re getting a chance and veterans who didn’t give a damn like Jason Babin have been let go or have been benched or gotten injured. Also let go was defensive line coach Jim Washburn and not so coincidentally, they had one of their best defensive games of the season last week. Not only are they no longer unbettable, but they might be underrated right now. If Foles keeps playing like this, Andy Reid might keep his job.
The Eagles are still irrelevant enough for the Bengals to potentially overlook them, which is a good thing for the Eagles. No one is really talking about the Eagles positively; after all, that was their first win in 2 months, but they should be. This line hasn’t shifted at all in the last week and the Bengals are still 4.5 point road favorites. The net points per drive method of computing real line says this line should actually be -7, but, remember, the Eagles were complete garbage for at least 6 weeks in a row.
As I mentioned, the Bengals will probably overlook the Eagles. After this game, they have to go to Pittsburgh and then home for the Ravens. Why would they care about a 4-9 non-conference opponent? If they lose week 16, they’re basically out of the playoffs almost no matter what and vice versa they can also lose this game and make the playoffs if they win in Pittsburgh next week. Here’s a trend that puts that into numbers. Non-conference favorites are 32-63 ATS before being divisional dogs since 2002, including 4-15 ATS as road non-conference favorites. If we go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size, teams are 12-31 ATS as road non-conference favorites before being divisional dogs.
Meanwhile, the Eagles are in a good spot. Teams are 31-19 ATS off a close (1-3 points) road win as non-divisional touchdown dogs since 1989, including 19-9 ATS as dogs and 10-4 ATS as home dogs. I guess the momentum of a big win carries over so long as they are still dogs and the win was non-divisional (for the opposite of this, the Steelers were completely flat last week as favorites off a close road divisional win as touchdown dogs).
Normally I like to take favorites on Thursday nights as favorites. Favorites tend to cover as favorites tend to be more veteran teams and more prepared for the short week. I’m not taking the Bengals for two reasons. One, they’re on the road, which cancels that out. Two, while they are favorites, they aren’t exactly a veteran team. Andy Dalton is a 2nd year quarterback and I think it’s risky to take a 2nd year quarterback as 4.5 point road favorites on a short week, even against a rookie like Nick Foles.
He could be really unprepared in his first Thursday game and it’s not like he’s done well in primetime games so far in his career. They were blown out by the Ravens 44-13 week 1 on Monday Night football and then lost at home 24-17 to the Steelers on Sunday Night football a few weeks later. Andy Dalton is a combined 36 of 65 for 326, 1 touchdown, and 2 picks in those 2 games, though he wasn’t exactly facing friendly defenses. Finally, I also like that we’re getting a chance to fade the public with the Eagles as the Bengals are a fairly significant public lean. The public always loses money in the long run.
This would be a bigger play on the Eagles if it weren’t for a few things. One, Andy Dalton has been very good against non-playoff teams in his short career. He’s 10-4 (8-4-2 ATS) against teams with a losing record. He was a perfect 9-0 against non-playoff teams last year and this year I count he’s 6-3. However, the 4.5 point spread leaves enough of a window to play with if the Bengals do end up winning. Two, I’ve been really bad at Thursday Night games this year. It’s possible that you just can’t handicap them using traditional methods. It’s always risky taking a rookie on a Thursday night too, even at home as 4.5 point home dogs against a 2nd year quarterback who has never played on a Thursday.
Three, the Eagles are playing a Thursday Night game 3 weeks after a Monday Night game, which means they will have played 4 games in 17 days. It might not be a huge difference as the Bengals will have played 4 in 18, but the Ravens almost lost at home to the Browns in this spot earlier this year and the Seahawks really struggled to get things going offensively in San Francisco and shouldn’t have covered the 7.5 point spread in this spot earlier this year (the game Harbaugh declined the safety in). I also like the under, especially with two young quarterbacks. The under is 74-55 on Thursday Nights, including 9-3 this year if you exclude Thanksgiving.
Public lean: Cincinnati (70% range)
Philadelphia Eagles 17 Cincinnati Bengals 16 Upset Pick +180
Pick against spread: Philadelphia +4.5 (-110) 3 units
Total: Under 45 (-110) 1 unit
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