Year: 2012

Raiders’ Terrelle Pryor “isn’t planning” on being a backup

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The Raiders traded a 1st and a 2nd round pick to Cincinnati last year for Carson Palmer and then signed Matt Leinart to be his backup, but don’t try to tell Terrelle Pryor that. Pryor today was quoted as saying that he “isn’t planning” on being a backup. It’s unclear whether he’s just saying that to sound competitive or if he’s completely delusional, but he did acknowledge in that interview that Carson Palmer is the starter so maybe it’s the former.

Pryor will enter the season as the Raiders’ #3 quarterback. There has been some talk this offseason of him playing different positions like tight end, wide receiver, and/or wildcat. Barring major injuries at the quarterback position, his best bet to get onto the field this year is probably going to be at another position, if at all.

Pryor was highly thought of by Al Davis, who used a 3rd round compensatory pick on him last offseason, but when Davis passed away last October, Pryor lost his biggest and possibly only supporter. Most of the league did not share Davis’ assessment of Pryor, not an uncommon occurrence in Davis’ life, and it doesn’t look like the Raiders’ new regime believes Pryor can develop into the player Davis thought he could.

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Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Cowboys

QB Tony Romo (Dallas)

He takes a lot of heat in real life, but Romo is a great fantasy quarterback, possibly underrated, in fact. With the exception of 2010 when he played just 6 games, he’s averaged 30 touchdowns and 13 interceptions and he’s gone over 4100 yards in his last three 16 game seasons.

Projection: 4320 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 80 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (280 pts standard/338 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB DeMarco Murray (Dallas)

DeMarco Murray is a very talented back and he should be the lead back because they only have the injury prone and disappointing Felix Jones behind him. There was even some talk that Jones would be traded or cut this offseason. However, Murray got hurt down the stretch last year, something that happened to him often at Oklahoma in college. It’s tough to project him among the league leaders in carries for that reason. It’s also worth noting that the Cowboys have only rushed for an average of 10 touchdowns per season in the last 3 years, including just 5 last year.

Projection: 240 carries 1080 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 35 catches 250 receiving yards (175 pts standard/210 pts PPR)

RB Felix Jones (Dallas)

There’s really no point in owning Felix Jones unless DeMarco Murray gets hurt. Murray took over for Jones when he got hurt last year and didn’t look back. Even when Jones came back, Murray had 59 carries to Jones’ 11 in 3 games before Murray got hurt. Jones has had every chance to be the lead back and has never been able to hold down the job. Luckily, Murray is injury prone, but even then, Jones could split carries with Phillip Tanner or he might get hurt himself.

Projection: 80 carries 360 rushing yards 2 total touchdowns 27 catches 200 receiving yards (68 pts standard/95 pts PPR)

WR Dez Bryant (Dallas)

8/20/12: Austin is battling hamstring problems still and Witten is out indefinitely with a lacerated spleen. Bryant, who is having a strong offseason on the field, could be due for a huge season in his 3rd year in the league, typically a breakout year for receivers. He’s the clear #1 option in one of the best passing attacks in the league.

Dez Bryant caught 63 balls for 928 yards and 9 touchdowns in 15 games last year. He’s now in his 3rd year, a frequent breakout year for receivers, and should have his best year yet, especially if he plays 16 games for the first time in his career.

Projection: 72 catches 1100 receiving yards 10 receiving touchdowns (170 pts standard/242 pts PPR)

WR Miles Austin (Dallas)

8/20/12: Miles Austin has missed all of the Preseason with hamstring problems. He should be fine for week 1, but hamstring problems tend to linger and he missed 6 games and caught just 43 passes for 579 yards and 7 touchdowns last year because of hamstring problems. He’s got upside, but let him be someone else’s problem.

He’s an injury risk after only playing in 10 games last year, in which he caught 43 passes for 579 yards and 7 touchdowns. However, before last year in his previous 17 games with Tony Romo, Austin has 109 catches for 1725 yards and 12 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 103 catches for 1624 yards and 11 touchdowns. He’s clearly the #2 receiver to Dez Bryant now, but there’s definitely buy low value with him.

Projection: 63 catches 850 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (133 pts standard/196 pts PPR)

TE Jason Witten (Dallas)

8/31/12: Jason Witten will reportedly be a game time decision for week 1 as he tries to come back from a lacerated spleen suffered a couple of weeks ago. This is much better news than his original prognosis, which was doubtful for week 1. At the very least, this news should mean that he’ll be in the starting lineup week 2.

An incredibly consistent producer, Witten has between 64 catches for 754 yards and 96 catches for 1145 yards in every season since 2004 and is averaging 5.16 catches for 59.07 yards and 0.31 touchdowns per game in that time period. Over 15 games, that’s 77 catches for 886 yards and 5 touchdowns. That’s not a bad year at all. You can safely draft him as your TE1 in fantasy. Even if he misses one game, tight end is a deep enough position that you can pick someone up off waivers for just one game and get decent production.

8/20/12: Witten is out indefinitely with a lacerated spleen. Unfortunately, the timetable for his return is very murky with this type of injury. He’ll have to remain idle for about a week and hope it heals and that he’ll avoid surgery. Reports says that’s the most likely scenario, but even if that scenario, he’d be questionable for week 1. Witten is incredibly tough and hasn’t missed a game since 2003, but I’m still cutting his original projected numbers to estimate that he plays 14 games instead of 16.

Jason Witten is as consistent as they come. He hasn’t missed a game since 2003 and he’s had between 79 and 96 catches and 942 yards and 1145 yards in each of the last 5 years. Believe it or not, he’s still only 30.

Projection: 77 catches 900 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (120 pts standard/197 pts PPR)

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Oakland Raiders Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Raiders

QB Carson Palmer (Oakland)

Excluding the Kansas City game, where he was still getting into the flow of things and wasn’t even supposed to play, Palmer played 9 games last year. He threw for 2637 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. Over 16 games, that’s 4688 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions. Some think he could improve on those numbers as he has another year in the system, but I have a hard time believing he improves on his 8.4 YPA from last year, especially since his career high before that was 7.8 and his career average is 7.1. He also turns 33 in December. That TD/INT ratio could improve, but remember, he led the league in interceptions in 2010.

Projection: 4120 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 21 interceptions, 40 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (214 pts standard/258 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Darren McFadden (Oakland)

8/27/12: I’m still down on McFadden, but I’m moving him up because he’s looked really good this preseason. He’s not worth a 1st round pick though. He’s way too injury prone. He’s never played more than 13 games in a season or had more than 227 carries and has only once gone over 113 carries in 4 seasons. He’s their everything back, but he’s almost a sure bet to miss 3-4+ games, at least.

Darren McFadden has only once gone over 113 carries in 4 seasons. There’s upside here, but there’s also downside. He’s a talented back who averages 4.8 YPC over his career and he’ll have no competition for the lead back job if he’s healthy, I just don’t trust him to be healthy.

Projection: 200 carries 960 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 41 catches 350 receiving yards (179 pts standard/220 pts PPR)

RB Taiwan Jones (Oakland)

8/27/12: Jones won the backup job after a strong preseason. McFadden is almost certain to miss 3-4+ games and Jones will probably get 15+ touches in those games. He’s incredibly fast and talented. If you do draft McFadden, make sure you take this talented handcuff late.

Like Mike Goodson, Jones is a name to know because of how injury prone McFadden is. Neither of them have much value until McFadden goes down, but he will and in that case, both will be ownable.

Projection: 120 carries 540 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 20 catches 180 receiving yards (96 pts standard/116 pts PPR)

WR Denarius Moore (Oakland)

8/20/12: Moore has missed all of the Preseason and most of Training Camp with a hamstring problem, which he’s been dealing with for 2 months. Hamstring injuries tend to linger and Moore missed time with injuries last season too so he probably won’t play all 16 games this season. I’ve cut his projected stats to account for a decrease in projected games played from 16 to 14 and lowered his YPC because hamstring injuries can sap explosion.

In 6 games with Carson Palmer, not including the Kansas City game, Moore caught 19 passes for 406 yards and 3 touchdowns, good for 51 catches for 1083 yards and 8 touchdowns over 16 games. He’s having a great offseason and Carson Palmer loves throwing to him so in his 2nd season, Moore could have a huge year assuming he plays in all 16 games, or at least comes close.

Projection: 48 catches 860 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (128 pts standard/176 pts PPR)

WR Darrius Heyward Bey (Oakland)

Darrius Heyward Bey proved he was more than fast last season, catching 64 passes for 975 yards and 4 touchdowns. His production was about the same with and without Carson Palmer so he should match those numbers this year.

Projection: 66 catches 960 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (132 pts standard/198 pts PPR)

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San Diego Chargers Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Chargers

QB Philip Rivers (San Diego)

Philip Rivers inexplicably regressed last season and had one of his worst seasons as a starter and certainly an inferior season to his past 3. I like his chances to bounce back, but at the same time, he’s also lost Vincent Jackson, his top receiver. Then again, he did fine without Jackson in 2010 when he was holding out so he should be fine.

It says a lot that Rivers can still deservingly go to the Pro Bowl in 2011, even though he had such a disappointing season that people wondered all year whether or not he was hurt. In his last 6 games in 2011, he had 12 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and 1601 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 32 touchdowns, 8 interceptions and 4269 yards. He should be fine. I conservatively averaged his numbers from his last 2 seasons to get my projections.

Projection: 4670 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (275 pts standard/333 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Ryan Mathews (San Diego)

8/13/12: Mathews has broken his collarbone and will miss 4-6 weeks, which puts his week 1 and week 2 status in doubt, dampening the outlook for a player who looked poised to have a breakout year. He still remains a 1st round pick in fantasy circles, though, and he may be undervalued, going now in the late 2nd on average. Before the injury, he was going off the board 7th overall.

Yes, he will miss a game or two, but you had to figure he would when making projections for him. When in the lineup, he could easily lead all backs in fantasy points per game as the Chargers’ “everything” back. If he can play 14 or 15 games and not sustain another injury, he could still finish the year as a top-5 back. There’s no guarantees he won’t get hurt again, especially with his history, but collarbone injuries are not lingering injuries. Unfortunately, there’s not a good handcuff for him as Ronnie Brown, Curtis Brinkley, and LeRon McClain, 3 mediocre backs, will split carries if he misses any time, making all 3 fantasy irrelevant.

I love Ryan Mathews this year. Allow me to explain. He’ll be the clear lead back for the first time in his career. The Chargers don’t have a good #2 back like they had with Mike Tolbert over the past 2 years, as well as Darren Sproles in 2010. Mathews will only have fullback Le’Ron McClain and Curtis Brinkley, who has 32 career carries, to compete with for carries.

In his 3rd year, the former 12th overall pick should rank among the league leaders in carries for the first time as long as he stays healthy. The Chargers have talked him up all offseason and said that he’s ready to be a feature back, which Norv Turner’s offenses normally have. For a back with a career 4.7 YPC, that could put him among the league leaders in rushing yards. He also plays on an explosive offense, which should be even better this year as Philip Rivers bounces back from one of his worst career seasons.

Mathews has never gone over 7 touchdowns in a season, but Mike Tolbert had 21 touchdowns over the past 2 seasons. And, again, he’s gone. Finally, Mathews is a threat in the passing game. Last year, he caught 50 passes for 455 yards, numbers that should be up as Rivers’ bounces back and Mathews sees more of the field. Between Mathews and Tolbert, Chargers running backs caught 104 passes last year. Rivers loves throwing to his backs.

Projection: 260 carries 1170 rushing yards 11 total touchdowns 52 catches 440 receiving yards (227 pts standard/279 pts PPR)

WR Malcom Floyd (San Diego)

8/20/12: Floyd also becomes up with Brown going down. Floyd’s starting job was never in danger, but with Brown out, Floyd becomes the obvious candidate to be San Diego’s #1 wide receiver. He’s not as physically talented as Meachem, but he’s got better chemistry with the quarterback. The biggest issue is that he’s missed 9 games over the past 2 seasons, he’s heading into his age 31 season, and he’s caught 3 or fewer passes in 14 of his last 23 games over the past 2 seasons. He wasn’t able to take advantage of the chance to be a #1 receiver in 2010 either.

There’s definitely upside here with Floyd. In 23 games over the last 2 seasons, he’s caught 80 balls for 1573 yards and 11 touchdowns. I just don’t trust him to get through a 16 game season healthy. He’s also been very inconsistent with 14 games of 3 catches or fewer over the past 2 years. He’s not worth the headaches, especially in PPR leagues.

Projection: 48 catches 850 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (121 pts standard/169 pts PPR)

WR Robert Meachem (San Diego)

8/20/12: Meachem obviously gets a stock up with Brown going down as Brown was a major threat to his job. The fact that Meachem has struggled in Training Camp and has never caught more than 45 passes in a season, despite having Drew Brees as his quarterback, remains, but he should be a starter for the entire season on one of the more explosive offenses in the league. He’ll probably be utilized more in San Diego (if the utilization is in the best interest of the Chargers’ offense is yet to be determined), so he could have a career year because of the pure volume of targets coming his way.

The Chargers coaching staff is talking up Meachem, but that’s just because they gave him so much money. Meachem has been a career disappointment in New Orleans since being taken in the first round and has never gone over 45 catches in a season. Why would he get better now that he has an inferior quarterback and a bunch of guaranteed money in his back pocket? He’ll be overdrafted.

Projection: 48 catches 800 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (116 pts standard/164 pts PPR)

TE Antonio Gates (San Diego)

8/20/12: Brown is probably done for the year. I’ve gone into detail on Floyd’s and Meachem’s short comings. Eddie Royal, the slot receiver, is also injury prone and hasn’t done anything of note since 2008. Gates was their #1 receiver in 2010, the last time the Chargers were without Vincent Jackson, catching 50 passes for 782 yards and 10 touchdowns in 10 games before getting hurt, on pace for a ridiculous 80 catches for 1251 yards and 16 touchdowns. He’s having a great offseason and is finally healthy and while he’s 32 and might miss a couple games with injuries, he’ll probably be the Chargers’ leading per game receiver when healthy.

I struggle with Antonio Gates. On one hand, he’s had 114 catches for 1560 yards and 17 touchdowns in 23 games over the past 2 years despite never being fully healthy and he’s now healthier than he’s been in the last 2 years. That’s 79 catches for 1085 yards and 12 touchdowns over 16 games. He also caught 50 balls for 782 yards and 10 touchdowns in a mere 10 games in 2010 with Vincent Jackson holding out and Rivers could look to him early and often, especially in the red zone, with Jackson gone.

On the other hand, he’s 32 in June and his days of playing all 16 games are behind him. Basically, what you’re getting with Antonio Gates is elite tight end production for around 14 games. Is that worth a 3rd or 4th round pick? In a deep tight end year where you can find a marginal replacement for him on waivers for any games he misses, I say yes.

Projection: 67 catches 1040 receiving yards 10 receiving touchdowns (164 pts standard/231 pts PPR)

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Packers to retire Brett Favre’s jersey “in a year or two”

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Even with the way things ended between Brett Favre and the Packers, almost everyone expected that his number would be retired by the organization someday. Favre holds almost every major passing record in NFL history and is arguably the Packers’ greatest player ever. He’ll be a Hall of Famer in 5 years from whenever the hell his last game actually was. Today, the Packers gave a time frame to any Favre jersey retirement ceremonies, saying that it would be retired “in a year or two.” This makes sense as it’s wise to make sure he’s actually retired before doing this.

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Brian Moorman’s job as starting punter for Bills is not safe

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Brian Moorman was 5th in the league with 48.2 yards per punt last season, though only 20th in net yards per punt with 38.6. Still, one would expect his job to be safe for next season, especially after the Bills did not draft a single punter. However, according to the Buffalo News, Moorman will face competition from undrafted rookie Shawn Powell in camp. I would expect Moorman to be the victor of that battle, but he will have to earn it and if he shows his 36 years of age in a negative way, he might not win the job.

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Jets praise Santonio Holmes

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At the end of last season, when the Jets missed the playoffs, it seemed possible they could cut Santonio Holmes, who was a distraction all season with his comments to the media about the locker room and his general attitude. Also, with only 51 catches for 654 yards and 8 touchdowns, the negatives outweighed the positives for him.

However, now it appears he’s gotten things together. He’s spent a lot of time working out privately with Mark Sanchez and he has been getting praise from all throughout the organization. Wide receivers coach Sanjay Lal called Holmes “very eager, very football-hungry, very competitive” so far in practice, while right tackle Wayne Hunter, who Holmes publicly blamed for his own poor statistics last season, said that Holmes has been “great.” I would project a bounce back season for Holmes, who is 2 seasons removed from catching 79 passes for 1248 yards and 5 touchdowns for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but his quarterback play will limit that. Neither Mark Sanchez nor Tim Tebow are great passers.

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Sidney Rice working out for Seahawks again

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Sidney Rice has only been fully healthy for one of his 5 career seasons, but when he was he caught 83 passes for 1312 yards and 8 touchdowns. However, he’s one of the league most injury prone players. Just this past year, he suffered 3 separate concussions and had 2 offseason shoulder surgeries. Now, he’s back working out and running routes with the Seahawks once again.

They expect him to be as healthy as he’s ever been by Training Camp, but that might be delusional optimistic thinking for a team that signed Rice to a 41 million dollar deal over 5 years and owes him a guaranteed 7 million in 2012. They also don’t have another #1 receiver and need Rice to step up in that role after just 32 catches for 484 yards and 2 touchdowns last season. There’s some buy low upside with Rice in fantasy leagues, but there’s also a clear downside.

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Titans’ Akeem Ayers trying to become a better pass rusher

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As a linebacker coming out of UCLA, some looked at Akeem Ayers as a potential 3-4 outside linebacker because of his size (6-3 254) and blitzing ability. He ended up in a 4-3 with the Titans and not rushing the passer much at all in 2011, but that sounds like it could change next season. Ayers has been spending a lot of time this offseason with new pass rushing coach Keith Millard in an attempt to become a better pass rusher.

This suggests that not only could we see Ayers blitz more in 2012, but with the Titans lacking depth at defensive end, he could play there in obvious passing situations in sort of a joker role made popular by Mathias Kiwunaka, Brian Orakpo, Von Miller, and Kamerion Wimbley, who now happens to be a starting defensive end in Tennessee.

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Patriots not happy with Wes Welker going public with contract negotiations

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There have been several reports throughout the last week or two pertaining to Wes Welker and the Patriots. Welker first said he would not holdout into the season, then signed his franchise tender, then complained to the media that the Patriots were low balling him with a contract worse than the 16 million over 2 years he was offered during the season.

The Patriots, as you can expect, are not happy with Welker breaking their tight lipped philosophy and making their negotiations public, this according to the Boston Globe. Welker responded by saying that he “probably misspoke,” whatever that means. There has been some talk that the Patriots could even trade Welker, 31, rather than resign him long term, given their depth at receiver.

That would be surprising, but then again, nothing would surprise me with the Patriots. They surprised when they shipped Richard Seymour to the Raiders for a 1st round pick before the 2009 season and Randy Moss to the Vikings for a 3rd round pick in the middle of the 2010 season. Both of those moves worked out pretty well.

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