Year: 2012

Dallas Clark visits with Patriots

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Two seasons ago, Dallas Clark had 100 catches from Peyton Manning. Now he’s still a free agent in mid May and was passed on by Peyton Manning and the Broncos for his former backup, Jacob Tamme. Clark has been on one visit so far, to Kansas City, who might have been looking at him purely as insurance for another Tony Moeaki injury, as they already have 2 solid tight ends on the roster in Moeaki and Kevin Boss, more of a blocker.

Earlier this week, Clark visited with the Patriots, but it sounds like they were just kicking the tires on him as well. Between Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and blocking tight end Daniel Fells, the Patriots don’t have room for another tight end unless someone gets hurt. Clark might not be on a team to start the season if things don’t change and then the 33 year old would have to decide between waiting for an injury and the phone to ring midseason, or retiring.

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Jets’ LaRon Landry not regularly participating in offseason conditioning program

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When LaRon Landry refused to get surgery on his Achilles, a surgery recommended strongly by Redskins team doctors, the Redskins had no problem letting their former #6 overall pick go. With the bad Achilles, he got little to no interest on the open market, aside from the New York Jets, who, in desperate need of safety help, gave him a heavily incentivized 4 million dollar deal and hoped he could find his former form.

That being said, it’s definitely not a good sign for the Jets that Landry has been thus far unable to participate in the team’s offseason conditioning program as regular. The program is completely voluntary, but Landry has barely attended any workouts for reasons unknown to Jets beat writers. My guess is that the reason has something to do with his Achilles.

Between Landry and all of his problems, and the mediocre Eric Smith and Yeremiah Bell, recently signed, the Jets might have the worst safeties in the NFL. Right now, the Jets best bets at the position would be to hope that Landry miraculously stays healthy for 16 games, that one or both of their late round picks at the position breaks out, and/or that Jim Leonhard is healthy for Training Camp, resigns with the Jets, and makes it through the season.

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Titans’ Tommie Campbell to see more action in 2012?

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Tommie Campbell is not a very big name and he didn’t play much at all last year, which makes sense seeing as he was a mere 7th round pick rookie. However, Titans defensive coordinator Jerry Gray raised some eyebrows when he called Campbell his team’s 2nd best cornerback, at least in terms of technique. Campbell has all the measurables as well as he ran a 4.31 40 at 6-3 205 at the Division-II All-Star Game last spring.

Campbell was originally recruited by Pittsburgh, but was kicked out for academic reasons. He then spent 2 years as a janitor at the Pittsburgh Airport, before getting a shot at California University of Pennsylvania. His strong measurables helped him get noticed and the Titans are feeling right now like they might have unearthed a gem.

Jason McCourty is established as the team’s #1 cornerback with Cortland Finnegan gone as he’s the only returning starter, but Gray mentioned that Campbell would compete with Alterraun Verner for the #2 job. Verner did a great job in the slot last year and the Titans have expressed interest in keeping him there.

They could have easily pulled the trigger on Dre Kirkpatrick at 20 in the 2012 NFL Draft had he been there. Even if Campbell loses the battle for the starting job, he would seem to be the favorite for the nickelback job as Ryan Mouton is coming back from an Achilles tear and Coty Sensabaugh is just a 4th round pick rookie.

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Mickey Loomis promises Saints will get a deal done with Drew Brees

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The league’s most prominent contract negotiations right now are between Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints. Brees saved the Saints franchise from mediocrity and a possible move from New Orleans, yet the organization is still playing hardball with the single season passing yards record holder. Yesterday, Brees spoke out and called the negotiations, as you could expect, “extremely frustrating.”

Today Saints GM Mickey Loomis spoke out and promised a deal would get done. The Saints would be wise to get a deal done sooner rather than later. Having your quarterback miss any practice is never a good thing and these drawn out negotiations do not paint the front office in a positive light to the rest of the players on the team. The Saints also could really use some good press and karma finally, after an offseason filled with BountyGate news.

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Cardinals’ Beanie Wells “doesn’t know” when he’ll be healthy

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Former first round pick Beanie Wells has had an injury prone career, but finally got it all together last year to lead the team with 1047 yards and 10 touchdowns on 245 carries. However, after the season, he had yet another knee surgery, a minor one, but Wells is still not practicing and says he “doesn’t know” when he’ll be ready to practice. Wells was already facing a decrease in carries as 2011 2nd round pick Ryan Williams returns from injury to steal some carries away and now he has this. It’s clear he probably won’t match the numbers he had in 2011.

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Panthers’ Jeff Otah is not guaranteed a starting job

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There was a time when Jeff Otah was one of the best right tackles in the game, young, and a former first round pick. However, thanks to knee injuries, Otah has missed all but 4 games over the last 2 seasons. He declared himself 100% earlier this offseason, which should be taken with a grain of salt, especially after he did the same thing last offseason, but Panthers Head Coach Ron Rivera says he is going to be guaranteed nothing in terms of a starting job and that he will have to earn his job back from Byron Bell.

Though Rivera praised Bell in the same interview, Bell was one of the worst right tackles in the league last year, surrendering 7 sacks, 24 pressures, committing 12 penalties and grading out as well below average against the run, all this according to ProFootballFocus. Otah shouldn’t have much trouble beating him out for the starting job should he be, in fact, relatively healthy.

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Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Chiefs

QB Matt Cassel (Kansas City)

The Chiefs are going back to a very run heavy attack with two talented backs in 2012 and could lead the league in rushing. In 2010, when they did this, Cassel had 27 touchdowns to 7 interceptions, but managed just 3116 yards (6.9 YPA) on 450 attempts. His TD/INT ratio should improve from the 10:9 it was last year, but he also had a 16:16 ratio in 2009 so I’m not expecting 27:7 again. I’m also expecting his YPA to be around where it was last year (6.4) with only 450 or so attempts. Not a lot to get excited about here. Even if in 2010, he wasn’t anything more than a fantasy backup and that was at his best.

Projection: 2940 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 130 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (190 pts standard/232 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Jamaal Charles (Kansas City)

7/26/12: I’m moving Hillis down with the news that the Chiefs will try to have their backs touch the ball combined 500 times, but I’m actually moving Charles up because he’s been cleared for the start of Training Camp and should get the majority of the touches. There will be a 60-40 split or so and Charles, who has averaged 6.1 YPC in his career, could get a career high in touches. There’s major upside with him in the 2nd round, provided he stays healthy and plays close to 100% of his 2010 self.

There’s buy low potential here with Jamaal Charles.  The Chiefs are going to try to replicate their 2010 offense so there will be plenty of carries to go around for both Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis and they should split them evenly like Charles and Thomas Jones did in 2010. Charles has a career 6.1 YPC and figures to be able to make the most of those carries. Peyton Hills will get the goal line carries, but Charles should still have a solid year.

Projection: 250 carries 1250 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 40 catches 320 receiving yards (205 pts standard/245 pts PPR)

RB Peyton Hillis (Kansas City)

7/26/12: The Chiefs reportedly want running backs Peyton Hillis and Jamaal Charles to touch the ball a combined 500 times next season, less than I originally projected (going off the 539 times that Charles and Jones touched the ball combined in 2010). However, they’ll still run a ton so Hillis is a decent RB3, who pass catches and will get the goal line carries. He’s also got a lot of upside since Charles is coming off a torn ACL.

Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones combined for 475 carries in 2010. Hillis and Charles could approach that this season running behind a much improved offensive line. Remember, Hillis is less than 2 years removed from rushing for 1177 yards and 11 touchdowns on 270 carries on a stagnant Cleveland offense in 2010. He may not be as talented as Charles, but he catches passes and will get all the goal line carries. An inferior Jones scored 6 times in 2010. Hillis could get in double figures in 2012.

Projection: 170 carries 770 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 30 catches 220 receiving yards (147 pts standard/177 pts PPR)

WR Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City)

8/7/12: I don’t know why Dwayne Bowe is holding out. He can’t be signed to a long term deal anyway. All he’s doing is hurting himself because other guys are impressing in his absence and other guys will have a better grasp of the offense with a new coaching staff in. Jonathan Baldwin has been a stud in his absence and will almost definitely eat into his production this season. All he’s doing is costing himself money on his next contract. He could also end up getting out of shape. He probably won’t miss any regular games, but let him be someone else’s problem this season.

Over the past 2 years, Dwayne Bowe has had 72 catches for 1162 yards and 81 catches for 1159 yards on a conservative offensive with inconsistent quarterback play. However, I expect those numbers to dip a bit in 2012. The Chiefs have more options with Jonathan Baldwin going into his 2nd year and Tony Moeaki coming back from injury and they figure to run a ton, maybe even more than in 2010. He is, however, the only Kansas City receiver with any fantasy value on a conservative offense with a mediocre quarterback. He should have more than the 5 touchdowns he had last year, but less than the obviously fluky 15 he had in 2010. Aside from 2010, his career high is 7 and after that it’s 5.

Projection: 65 catches 950 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (131 pts standard/196 pts PPR)

WR Jonathan Baldwin (Kansas City)

8/7/12: Baldwin didn’t do much as a rookie last year, but he as a 1st round pick and a bad rookie year is already damning for a receiver. Baldwin has been impressing in Bowe’s absence and should be able to nail down a starting job, moving Steve Breaston to the slot. Breaston had 61 catches for 785 yards and 2 touchdowns last year with inferior quarterback play. Baldwin is more talented and definitely has upside as a late round flier. Unfortunately, he’s limited by his quarterback and Bowe’s presence.

Projection: 50 catches 700 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (100 pts standard/150 pts PPR)

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Denver Broncos Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Broncos

QB Peyton Manning (Denver)

I’m projecting a down season for Peyton Manning for several reasons. For one, he’s going to a new team, in a new division, with a new system, and new players, new coaches, new surroundings, everything new. The continuity is gone for Peyton Manning, which is never a good thing. Two, he’s got inferior players around him, at least in comparison to the 2000s Colts or even the 2010 Colts, which had two receivers, Reggie Wayne and Pierre Garcon, who almost had 1000 yard seasons last year with Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky.

Three, he was out of football all last year. In 2010, he struggled by his standards for half a season after just missing training camp. Four, he’s coming off of 4 neck surgeries in 2 years. Enough said. Five, he’s 36 and a declining player. He was a declining player even in 2010 and that was 3 neck surgeries and almost 2 years ago. His arm strength wasn’t what it used to be and I can’t imagine it’s any better now. I expect him to have a season worse than 2010, when he had 4700 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 17 touchdowns, particularly because he won’t throw the ball 679 times, which he did in 2010.

Projection: 4370 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 40 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (264 pts standard/322 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Willis McGahee (Denver)

8/20/12: McGahee’s top backup, Ronnie Hillman, has been dealing with hamstring problems all Preseason. Those things can linger, so it becomes less likely that Hillman overtakes McGahee, especially since Head Coach John Fox doesn’t like rookies. McGahee is still heading into his age 31 season, but he’s reportedly the clear lead back and he should get a bunch of carries and a bunch of goal line carries on an explosive offense.

There’s nothing but downside with McGahee this year after a surprise bounce back year last year. Remember, he’s a season removed from averaging 3.8 YPC as Ray Rice’s backup in Baltimore behind a better offensive line. Now he’s 31 in October. He’s getting drafted too early and Hillman is getting drafted too late as he has real sleeper value.

Projection: 200 carries 820 rushing yards 9 total touchdowns 20 catches 130 receiving yards (149 pts standard/169 pts PPR)

RB Ronnie Hillman (Denver)

8/20/12: Hillman is dealing with hamstring problems and on top of that, news has come out that McGahee is the clear lead back, which makes some sense since John Fox hates rookies. Hillman does have some upside, because he’s the type of pass catching back that Peyton Manning will want on the field with him and because McGahee is heading into his age 31 season, but he’s only a late round flier. He might even start the season below Knowshon Moreno on the depth chart.

Willis McGahee had a bounce back year last year with 1199 yards and 4 touchdowns on 249 carries, but a lot of that had to do with Tebow and opposing front 7s having to focus on him and his running ability. Now he’s a year older, 31 in October, and the Broncos used a 3rd round pick on a running back. McGahee could struggle this season and end up in a 50/50 timeshare with Ronnie Hillman. I actually like Hillman to lead this team in carries. McGahee will get the goal line carries, but Hillman is a better pass catcher.

Projection: 100 carries 440 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 20 catches 160 receiving yards (84 pts standard/104 pts PPR)

WR Eric Decker (Denver)

8/7/12: Eric Decker and Peyton Manning reportedly have great chemistry in Denver, much better than him and Demaryius Thomas. This makes a lot of sense because Peyton Manning loves crisp route runners with reliable hands, rather than pure athletic freaks like Thomas. With Peyton Manning likely to show diminished arm strength this season at age 36 after 4 neck surgeries and a year out of football, Decker should lead the team in receiving and Peter King’s prediction that Decker will rank among the league leaders in receiving doesn’t sound too crazy.

Everyone assumes Demaryius Thomas will lead the Broncos in receiving, but why? Just because he had 25 catches for 448 yards and 3 touchdowns in his last 5 games last year? Well Eric Decker had 20 catches for 270 yards and 4 touchdowns in his first 4 games last year and that was with Brandon Lloyd opposite him.

Just because Thomas had great chemistry with Tim Tebow doesn’t mean he will have great chemistry with Peyton Manning. Thomas is still a very unproven player and Decker has shown better chemistry with more traditional pocket passers. It’s also worth noting that Peyton Manning specifically requested the Colts draft Eric Decker in the 3rd round in 2010, but the Broncos got him first. We know he thinks highly of him.

Manning has made lemonade out of apples before with his receivers. If Austin Collie can catch 58 passes for 649 yards and 8 touchdowns in 9 games on a more crowded receiving corps in 2010 with Manning, Decker can have a 1000 yard season. I think he’ll lead this team in receiving and exceed his draft range.

Projection: 90 catches 1100 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (164 pts standard/254 pts PPR)

WR Demaryius Thomas (Denver)

8/27/12: Like with the Caldwell entry, I don’t know why Thomas’ numbers were so low. I’m down on him, as compared to Eric Decker, but not too down.

I went into detail about Thomas under Eric Decker’s write up, but Thomas has never had any success in the NFL without Tim Tebow. He also has very little proven success in general with just 54 catches for 834 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2 seasons. He’s got a ton of talent and athleticism, but I think Decker stands a better chance to develop great chemistry with Manning as he’s a traditional drop back passer. It doesn’t hurt that Peyton Manning told the Colts to draft Eric Decker back in 2010. Thomas won’t have a bad year, but could be overdrafted.

Projection: 46 catches 820 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (124 pts standard/170 pts PPR)

TE Jacob Tamme (Denver)

8/27/12: Peyton Manning has been targeting Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen equally in the preseason. The Broncos will use a lot of 2-tight end sets this year and their two talented tight ends might just cancel each other out. Tamme caught 67 passes for 631 yards and 4 touchdowns in 10 games in 2010 with Peyton Manning, good for 107 catches for 1010 yards and 6 touchdowns over 16 games, but all that proves is Manning loves throwing to his tight ends. He always has (see Clark, Dallas). However, he’ll split his tight end targets between Tamme and Dreessen this year. Tamme will probably see more targets, but Dreessen will be the preferred goal line target and probably have more touchdowns.

I love Jacob Tamme this year. He caught 67 passes for 631 yards and 4 touchdowns in just 10 games in 2010 with Peyton Manning and he’s the only receiver with any previous experience with Manning. He also will play in a pretty mediocre receiving corps so Manning could target him early and often, especially with his previous familiarity with him.

Projection: 64 catches 700 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (94 pts standard/158 pts PPR)

TE Joel Dreessen (Denver)

8/27/12: Peyton Manning has been targeting Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen equally in the preseason. The Broncos will use a lot of 2-tight end sets this year and their two talented tight ends might just cancel each other out. Tamme caught 67 passes for 631 yards and 4 touchdowns in 10 games in 2010 with Peyton Manning, good for 107 catches for 1010 yards and 6 touchdowns over 16 games, but all that proves is Manning loves throwing to his tight ends. He always has (see Clark, Dallas). However, he’ll split his tight end targets between Tamme and Dreessen this year. Tamme will probably see more targets, but Dreessen will be the preferred goal line target and probably have more touchdowns.

Projection: 49 catches 590 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (89 pts standard/138 pts PPR)

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Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Jaguars

QB Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville)

If Blaine Gabbert is on your fantasy team, you’re an idiot.

Projection: 2780 passing yards, 17 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, no rushing touchdowns (161 pts standard, 195 pts in 6 pt TD league)

RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville)

9/2/12: MJD finally reported. Rashad Jennings will get the week 1 start regardless and could get the bulk of the carries for the first 2 weeks or so of the season as MJD gets back into football shape and learns the offense. There are also way too many similarities to the Chris Johnson holdout last year for me to be comfortable projecting MJD’s usual level of production until the 2nd half of the season (Chris Johnson averaged 3.0 YPC through the first 8 games last year and 4.8 through the final 8). MJD is also a candidate to get hurt lose carries some more carries than he originally would have is Jennings impresses in his tryout as starter. I’m moving him up, but he’s hardly a sure thing fantasy running back.

8/27/12: Maurice Jones-Drew has yet to report and says he’d “welcome a trade,” though he also said he’d prefer to stay in Jacksonville. The Jaguars have announced that Rashad Jennings will start week 1 regardless as MJD will take some time to get back into top football shape and because he missed an entire offseason of offensive install with a new coaching staff coming in.

This is a smart move by the Jaguars because this situation is eerily similar to Chris Johnson’s situation last year and Johnson averaged 3.0 yards per carry for the first half of the season before looking like his old self and averaging 4.8 per in the 2nd half of the season. Don’t expect MJD’s production to resemble his normal levels of production until around midseason and he’s also an obvious injury risk if he’s out of shape. Remember, he’s had a lot of usage over the past 3 years (1084 touches). Those types of guys are injury risks to begin with.

7/1/12: Maurice Jones Drew might be the most serious holdout this year. The Jaguars are refusing to even talk contract right now with him and he should miss at least the start of Training Camp unless something drastically changes. This reminds me a lot of Chris Johnson’s holdout last year and Johnson was out of shape as a result of it. MJD is also coming off leading the league in carries, which means he could be more worn down this season, and he’s on a terrible offense that isn’t in the red zone much and frequently faces 8 man fronts. He’s incredibly talented, but I’d let someone else take him in the 1st round.

Maurice Jones Drew led the league in carries last year. History suggests that this means he’ll have a down year this year. At the same time, he’s so talented, it wouldn’t surprise me if he had yet another fantastic season. He probably won’t have the 343 carries he had last year, especially with his top backup Rashad Jennings coming back from injury. His YPC and touchdown potential are also stagnated by the offense he plays on. Nonetheless, he should be one of the top fantasy backs this year.

Projection: 250 carries 1080 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 37 catches 300 receiving yards (186 pts standard/223 pts PPR)

RB Rashad Jennings (Jacksonville)

9/2/12: Jennings obviously moves down with MJD coming back. He’ll probably have RB2/flex value for the first couple weeks of the season, but he’ll need an MJD injury to remain startable at any point the rest of the season. He still has the most value as a handcuff for MJD owners.

8/27/12: Jennings obviously gets a stock up with Maurice Jones Drew going down. He’ll get the week 1 start either way and could see a lot of action early in the season. Still, I wouldn’t draft him at his current ADP in the 8th round unless I had Maurice Jones-Drew on my roster (and likewise, I wouldn’t draft MJD without targeting Jennings in the mid rounds). There are too many unknowns here to just own one. Jennings could get two starts and then be a pure backup for the rest of the season. It’s definitely possible.

7/1/12: Jennings is a valuable handcuff to MJD owners the way Javon Ringer was for Chris Johnson owners last season.

Projection: 140 carries 630 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 21 catches 170 receiving yards (110 pts standard/131 pts PPR)

WR Laurent Robinson (Jacksonville)

8/7/12: This is not what you want to hear. Laurent Robinson, a one year wonder who could regress after signing a giant contract with a team with that has a terrible quarterback, is reportedly really struggling in Training Camp and he and his team even admits it. I guess that’s what happens when you give 32.5 million over 5 years to a receiver who was a final cut last offseason. Stay away.

Before last season, Laurent Robinson never had more than 37 catches for 437 yards in a season and might revert now that he has gotten a big deal. Even if he doesn’t, we might not notice because Gabbert sucks too much for any of his receivers to be fantasy starters until further notice. Stay away.

Projection: 40 catches 530 receiving yards 4 receiving touchdowns (77 pts standard/117 pts PPR)

WR Justin Blackmon (Jacksonville)

8/7/12: Justin Blackmon was bound to struggle anyway this season because his quarterback sucks and because rookie receivers never do anything. On top of that, he missed a large portion of Training Camp with a contract dispute. Stay away.

Justin Blackmon is an incredibly talented player, but rookie receivers typically struggle (don’t see Green, AJ and Jones, Julio) and Blackmon’s quarterback situation is a mess. Stay away in redraft leagues.

Projection:  44 catches 550 yards 4 receiving touchdowns (79 pts standard/123 pts PPR)

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New York Jets sign S Yeremiah Bell

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012

Yeremiah Bell isn’t very good, especially at 34 years of age, but Eric Smith isn’t very good either. The Jets desperately needed safety help with Eric Smith’s struggles and LaRon Landry’s history of injuries, as well as their confusing failure to use an early pick on a safety in the 2012 NFL Draft. Yeremiah Bell might not be good, but he probably was the best safety left on the open market and the Jets needed to do something at the position.

This doesn’t really fix anything, but at 1.4 million over 1 year, it’s not a bad signing or anything, even though it is fully guaranteed (huh?). Expect the Jets to once again have very poor safety play unless one of their two late round rookies, Antonio Allen or Josh Bush, can develop into a capable player as a rookie. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez should once again be looking forward to facing the Jets twice this season.

Grade: B