32. Buffalo Bills 0-4

4 games in and Chan Gailey already tops my list of coaches who should be fired (over John Fox, Tom Coughlin, and Eric Mangini). Gailey’s scheme doesn’t work. That’s why the Chiefs went 2-14 and had the one of the league’s worst offenses when Gailey was the offensive coordinator in 2008. It works on a college level, but it doesn’t work in the NFL. The defenses are too smart and too fast to be fooled by a short throw offense. They’ll just stack the box and stagnant your offense. I can kind of see using that scheme with Trent Edwards at quarterback because Edwards throws like a girl (no offense to girls), but Ryan Fitzpatrick has a bit of a stronger arm and they still aren’t setting up anything downfield to guys like Lee Evans (10 catches for 94 yards). 

Gailey also is refusing to use CJ Spiller, whom the front office spent the 9th overall pick on this past April. In 4 games, Spiller has 14 rushes and 12 catches for a total of 94 yards and a score. He used Marshawn Lynch as the feature back (37 carries for 164 yards) and now that they’ve cut ties with Lynch and traded him to Seattle for a 4th and a 6th rounder, Gailey has announced that Fred Jackson 920 carries for 87 yards) will be the starter. I know I didn’t like the Spiller move when it was made, because Lynch and Jackson were already capable of handling the running game, but at least use the kid. 

Also Gailey is starting the wrong quarterback. Ryan Fitzpatrick turns 28 this November and has 789 career attempts as a 7th rounder pick out of Harvard. You know what you’re going to get out of him by and now and that’s a quarterback that, if everything else possibly goes right around him, will get you to 10-6. He’s not in that top 10 or top 15 tier of quarterbacks that can possibly win you a Super Bowl. My philosophy is that, if you know the guy starting for you isn’t the guy who can get your team where you want it to go, change the guy, whether it be by drafting a quarterback (which they should have done in April and should do this April in the 2011 NFL Draft) or by promoting someone in house. Brian Brohm has 29 career attempts and is a 25 year old former 2nd round pick. Why not see if he’s the guy that can take your team where you want it to go. It can’t hurt. He probably isn’t (17 for 29 for 146 yards and 2 picks in his career), but he’s still young and the Packers did see something in him when they drafted him in the 2nd round in 2008 (despite having Aaron Rodgers).

Finally, plain and simply, Gailey’s team sucks. There’s no getting past that. The Bills have lost by 20 or more points this year twice in 4 games and have yet to win a single game. They’ve lost by 15-10, 34-7, 38-30, and 38-14. That’s bad.

31. Cleveland Browns 1-3

Seneca Wallace did admirably in 3 starts after taking over for an injured Jake Delhomme after week 1. In 3 starts, he led the hapless Browns to a 1-2 record and threw for 554 yards on 52 for 85 with 3 touchdowns and 2 picks. He’s not the type of quarterback that’s going to win you a Super Bowl or anything, but he’s a solid game manager. The catch, they’re going back to Jake Delhomme this week. Come on. Did you expect any different? It’s the Browns. Browns and Bad quarterbacks are synonomous. I’m not sure what attracted them to Delhomme. Was it his 8 touchdowns to 18 picks in 2009? His 5 turnover game in the playoffs in 2008? Or his team killing 2 picks in the opener to lose a close one to the lowly Browns?

30. Detroit Lions 0-4

Further prove the football gods hate the Lions, the Lions are 0-4 and they’re not even playing badly. They’ve lost those 4 games by a combined 24 points. And it’s not like they’re almost beating bad teams. They lost to the Bears by 1 on a bullshit rule. They lost to the Eagles by 3. They lost to the Vikings by 14 in a game that should have been a lot closer. They lost by 2 to the Packers this past weekend. If they had had a healthy Matt Stafford, they could be 3-1 right now or something like that. Shaun Hill is a servicable player, but doesn’t have the big play potential Stafford has. They’re losing like always, but they’re not even playing like they always do. This team is now 3-41 in their last 44 games. The football gods hate the Lions.

29. Arizona Cardinals 2-2

The Cardinals are making the switch from Derek Anderson to undrafted rookie Max Hall, 4 games into this season. They’ve played a lot worse than their 2-2 record would suggest as their two wins came by a combined 5 points to the lowly Raiders and the Rams in Sam Bradford’s debut. They needed a missed chip shot field goal by Sebastian Janikowski to beat the Raiders. Their two losses came by a combined 65 points. Their runs scored/runs allowed differential of -60 is 2nd worst in the league to the Bills -64. They may be in first place, but they’re not playing like a first place team, at all.

I actually like the switch to Max Hall. I know what you’re thinking, didn’t I go into detail about how quarterbacks that have a rookie redshirt year do so much better in their careers. That is very true, but that only concerns potential franchise quarterbacks. I saw enough of Max Hall in college to know there’s about a .5% chance he’s a franchise quarterback in the NFL, maybe not even that much of a chance. However, he’s better than what they have in Derek Anderson. Hall is very similar to Bruce Gradkowski and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Give them an amazing supporting cast and they can take you to the playoffs. Hall can win this team the 6 or 7 games (I wish I was kidding) it could take to win this division. 

He’s pretty much the anti-Derek Anderson. Anderson has all the physical tools to win you games, but he’ll lose you a lot more than he’ll win you with poor decision making, accuracy, and intangibles. Hall doesn’t wow you with arm strength at all. He stands at about 6-1 210 with shoes on, but he’s a proven leader, and he’s got great mechanics and accuracy. He may be a rookie, but he’s 24, thanks to a 2 year mormon mission. He also is younger and less proven. You know what you’re getting with Derek Anderson and it ain’t pretty. With Hall, there’s a chance he could become that franchise guy that could lead your team to the Super Bowl. It’s not a good chance, but it’s a better chance than Anderson. And if he doesn’t, well maybe he can lead this team to a 7 win playoff berth this year and they can start fresh with a new signal caller in 2011. Or better yet, draft one in 2011 and sit him behind Hall for a year as a rookie redshirt year. Because after all, the history doesn’t lie. Rookie redshirt years do help.

28. Oakland Raiders 1-3

The Raiders have their biggest game of the year this week. They play the Chargers, the early season Chargers, and have a legitimate chance to knock the Chargers off for the first time in 13 games. This is their Super Bowl, because they’re obviously not going to be playing in any real Super Bowl anytime soon. I expect them to come out playing hard and (NFL Picks spoiler alert), I they’ll pull it off.

27. Carolina Panthers 0-4

Poor Jimmy Clausen. As if having a crappy offensive line, a defense that can’t stop anyone, a Head Coach who forgot his team was a run first team, and receivers for the most part that can’t get seperation, Steve Smith has now gone down with yet another of his patented injuries and could miss up to the month. Now he has no receivers that can get open. His top receivers are two rookies, Brandon LaFell and David Gettis, both of whom were drafted in the 3rd round or later, and Dwayne Jarrett who might as well not even have hands. He can’t catch anything. I don’t know how Clausen almost knocked off the Saints in New Orleans with this supporting cast.

26. San Francisco 49ers 0-4

What’s sad is that this team still has a decent shot of winning the division, despite starting 0-4. Their division is that bad. They have 5 more games remaining with division opponents. If they go 4-1 in those games, and then play decent (3-4) in their other 7 games, they have 7 wins and could win this division. Their still a talented team. In fact, I’d say they’re the most talented team in the division. Two of their losses were for stupid reasons and by a combined 5 points to a good Atlanta and a good New Orleans team. There’s no need to panic in San Fran and change coaches (why would you want to get rid of Singletary) or quarterbacks (argue all you want, Alex Smith is better than David Carr). If they don’t make the playoffs, then they can fire their coach and switch quarterbacks, meaning draft a new one in the first round with what should be a top 10 pick.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars 2-2

The Jaguars just beat the Colts, but this is still a bad team. They beat the Colts because they always play the Colts tough. Some bad teams, in fact most bad teams, particularly ones that have been bad consistently in recent history, all have teams they play their hardest against traditionally. For the Jaguars, that is the Colts. They won that game because they gave it their all, but they don’t do that every week. In fact, they don’t do that most weeks. Also, those two weird turnovers by the Colts and a magical 59 yard field goal to win it also probably helped a lot.

24. Seattle Seahawks 2-2

I don’t love their move for Marshawn Lynch. I think that, first of all, running games are overrated. As long as you have a strong passing game to lift their pressure off the box, most decent running backs can average 4 YPC. Look at what the Patriots have been doing for years. All you need is different types of running backs to mix and match. Second of all, I don’t think the running game was the problem. Justin Forsett and Leon Washington were capable backs. Lynch does give them that extra look, which is good. The positives, of course, are that (as always) the NFC West sucks so adding a player like Lynch could have a tiny difference that pushes them over the top. Also, what they gave up, a 4th and 6th rounder, is not all that much.

23. st. Louis Rams 2-2

The Rams are the favorites in the NFC West? Why not? The Seahawks are having defensive issues and I know how that I trust Matt Hasselbeck as a quarterback. The 49ers and 0-4 desperately need to get their shit together. And the Cardinals just switch quarterbacks to an undrafted rookie. So, I’d say the Rams are the favorites in the NFC West. I’m not sure if you’re sensing a theme, but the NFC West is pretty bad.

What’s so surprising about the Rams is not their offense. Steven Jackson is doing what we expect him too, which is being a badass, doing everything a running back can possibly do, all while playing injured. Sam Bradford, though a lot will be made that he’s having a good year, is really not. He’s completing 58% of his passes for a YPA of 6.0 and 6 picks to 6 touchdowns. Those aren’t bad rookie numbers at all, but they’re not amazing, especially considering he’s faced some pretty run of the mill or worse defenses (Seattle, Washington, Arizona, Oakland). They’re basically what I expected from a rookie quarterback who didn’t have much experience in a pro style offense and hadn’t played in a competitive football game since October of 2009. 

What is surprising about the Rams and what is making them 2-2 is their defense. I guess it shouldn’t be so surprising, considering Steve Spagnuolo is a defensive genius. The Giants can’t create any pressure without Spags as their defensive coordinator (unless of course they’re playing the Bears). But the personnel on this defense were hardly impressive names coming into the season. However, they ranked 16th against the pass in YPA and 7th against the pass in QB rating. They also have an impressive 9 sacks (10th in the league) in 4 games.

This of course could be because of their weak strength of schedule. Other than Donovan McNabb, they aren’t really facing any good quarterbacks. Matt Hasselbeck, Derek Anderson, and Shaun Hill are hardly impressive quarterbacks. We’ll have to see what they do once they’re tested. Luckily for them, they won’t really be tested all that much. I think they have the easiest schedule in the league and that could propel them to be an unlikely playoff team (granted with 7 or so wins).

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-1

Bye

21. Denver Broncos 2-2

With Kyle Orton playing the way he is, the Broncos are in a great position to challenge for the AFC West if the Chargers don’t improve and the Chiefs 3-0 start is really as much of a fluke as I think it is. Kyle Orton is playing like a legitimate quarterback and stretching the field. Their passing game is dangerous deep down field, something they didn’t have last year. That’s going to open things up for the running game and put points on the board. This is going to force opponents to match and that’s going to allow them to make the most of their strong pass defense. The big thing is though, red zone offense. 1419 passing yards by Orton has led to 6 passing touchdowns and 87 points. If they can capitalize on their strong passing offense, with a odd matched bunch of receviers that work well together (Brandon Lloyd, Eddie Royal, Demaryius Thomas, Jabar Gaffney), they’re going to be a solid team this year, especially if Knowshon Moreno can run well coming back from his injury, and if their ground defense can play as well as it did last week against Chris Johnson.

20. Philadelphia Eagles 2-2

Michael Vick supporters got more ammunition this week. First of all, they never got to see Michael Vick struggle against a defense that wasn’t the Lions’ or the Jaguars’ because he wasn’t in the game long enough. Before leaving with a rib cage injury, Vick was 5 for 7 for 59 yards and it was tough to call it either a bad performance or a good performance by Vick. Also, Kolb came in and didn’t really play that well and lost the game. Vick supporters can now say that the Eagles are 2-0 in games that Vick starts and finishes and 0-2 in games that he doesn’t. I can’t wait until Vick comes back and has to play a good defense and struggles and shuts up Vick supporters. Vick is not nearly the quarterback he once was and he was never even the quarterback that every thought he was. He’s not a good pocket passer or passer in general.

19. Kansas City Chiefs 3-0

Bye

18. Cincinnati Bengals 2-2

Remember all the excitement around Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens that was out there before the season, all the hype. Where’s any of that now? It all disappeared and Owens just caught 10 catches for 222 yards and is not even really that big of news. I guess that’s what happens when you lose, especially to the Browns. I guess that just goes to show, it doesn’t matter how good your receivers are if your quarterback is crap. Palmer has proven this season that he is crap. No more excuses for him. If he can’t even lead this team to the playoffs, not looking likely, we can never possibly say he’s the type of quarterback that can win a Super Bowl. As I’ve mentioned, my rule with quarterbacks, if you don’t think you can win a Super Bowl with a guy, you’ve gotta switch, either to a backup that’s unproven or by drafting a new quarterback. It’ll be interesting to see if they do one of those two this offseason.

17. Tennessee Titans 2-2

I had a feeling that Chris Johnson could struggle this year, after leading the league in carries and touches at his small size last year, but I didn’t imagine anything like what we’ve seen from him at times this year. Johnson is averaging 3.8 YPA and has two performances of 34 yards and 53 yards. 34 against the Steelers is excuable. Michael Turner and Ray Rice couldn’t break 50 against them either. But 53 against the Broncos? This is the same Broncos team that was one of the worst run stopping defenses in the league last year and fixed that by giving enormous amounts of money to former backups on the defensive line. Johnson also has performances of 142 yards and 125 yards, but the low YPA, 3.8 on the year, hasn’t broken 4 in a week since week 1, and those two clunker performances, are very concerning, especially for Titans fans. The less he can run, the more Vince Young has to pass and the more Vince Young has to pass, the more they lose. Young is a great winner and game manager, but he can’t be relied on to win a game where he has to throw 30 times for 250 yards to win.

 

16. Miami Dolphins 2-2

Special teams, and particularly their special team’s coach, the recently canned John Bonamego, are going to be blamed for that loss to the Patriots, a loss in which the Patriots became the first team ever to have a kick return touchdown, a rushing touchdown, a passing touchdown, a blocker kick returned for a touchdown, and a pick six in the same game. However, the special teams shouldn’t take all the blame and what blame the special teams takes should fall on the players, not the coach. There’s only so much a coach can do if his players play like crap, as they did in the Patriots game. Also, even without the 21 points (punt return touchdown, blocked kick return touchdown, blocked punt that set up a short field for a touchdown) that their special teams gave up, they still lose that game 20-14. I feel like special teams could be a scapegoat for their loss. They didn’t just lose because their special teams didn’t play well. As a team, they didn’t play well.

Henne was able to move the ball well on a poor New England defense, but he also through three killer interceptions (one for a pick six) that simply should not have been thrown. I know he’s young, but he’s got to work on his decision making. Now, there are actually talks that Henne could be benched in favor of Chad Pennington (3 comeback players of the year for Pennington?), an interesting move, as they attempt to save their season. I think it would be best to let Henne work through his issues, but if they feel differently, Pennington could be the guy again.

15. Minnesota Vikings 1-2

The Vikings had a bye last week, but made headlines by trading for former face of the franchise Randy Moss. I know it’s not the same regime in town as it was when Moss forced himself out after the 2004 season and began his exile in Oakland, but it’ll still be weird seeing Moss in a Vikings jersey again. I do like the move of the Vikings though. Sidney Rice isn’t playing for at least another 4 weeks and they could be out of it by then. Favre has proven this year that he needs a big athletic target like a Randy Moss or a Sidney Rice. The Vikings figure, Favre’s probably done after the year anyway, meaning it would be back to square one for this franchise, why not go all out this year and try as hard as possible to win it all. I like the courage. I’m not sure it even makes them a playoff team yet. Favre still has to play better and get better protection, but if those things happen, look out, especially once Rice returns. Moss, Rice, Harvin, Peterson, Favre, oh shit. How do you stop that? Moss faces his old nemisis Darrelle Revis this week as the Vikings take on the Jets. I’ll say more about the Moss move in the Patriots section (spoiler alert).

14. Chicago Bears 3-1

Many people can be blamed for what took place on the field last week at Meadowlands, meaning 10 sacks by the Giants on the Bears, two different quarterbacks getting hurt for the Bears, and a total offense of 110 yards. First of all, Mike Martz’ scheme was to blame. It’s pretty easy to stop the Mike Martz scheme, just create pressure on the quarterback. The Martz scheme can be explosive, but it requires a lot of time in the pocket, a lot of 7 step drops to set up deep routes. 2nd, I’m going to blame Jay Cutler himself. He knows the pressure is coming. He’s got to get it out of there to one of the open guys. When the opponent blitzes, someone is open. He knows the blitz is coming. He needs to do what Kurt Warner did in this scheme in St. Louis, read the blitz and get that ball out of there. He looked like a statue out there last week and simply could not read the blitz at all. 3rd, you gotta blame the offensive line. They have to block better than that, plain and simple. I had some concerns about the Martz scheme coming to Chicago this year and those two concerns were the Cutler doesn’t do well under pressure and that the Bears offensive line is pretty porous. Both of those concerns came to life last Sunday night in a 17-3 loss to the Giants. They’ll have to rebound this week against the Panthers, but without Jay Cutler (concussion). Todd Collins will start instead.

13. New York Giants 2-2

Still tough to get a read on this team. They are a talented bunch, but they are just 2-2 and their offense didn’t look that great in a 17-3 win over the Bears. You’d think if how well that defense play, their offense could have easily scored 20-25 if they had been more in sync, but they weren’t. Time will still continue to tell for this team, but I think Tom Coughlin will get fired if they slip up in these next few weeks or if they don’t make the playoffs this season as this team is talented enough to make the playoffs easily.

12. Washington Redskins 2-2

Clinton Portis’ injury, for 4 to 6 weeks with a hammy problem, could be a blessing in disguise for this team. Ryan Torain is younger and is running better right now. He looks like the future at running back for the Redskins. I had a feeling he could have a big role on this team at some point this year. Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, and Willie Pakrer are all ancient (two have been cut, one is hurt) and Shanahan specifically brought Torain in from Denver, the team with whom Shanahan drafted Torain in the 5th round in 2008.

11. Dallas Cowboys 1-2

Bye

10. Houston Texans 3-1

Gary Kubiak’s decision to bench Foster for a quarter and a half because he was late to one team meeting is a bit head scratching. There could have been prior offenses, but everything I’ve read about him has been positive, regarding his character, so I doubt that. Luckily for Kubiak, Foster still managed 187 total yards and 2 total touchdowns on 19 touches and a 31-24 Texans victory, and I mean luckily in more than one sense. Luckily for his team’s sake. They still won the game 31-24, despite not having Andre Johnson’s services at all. And, Kubiak won’t be killed by an angry mob of fantasy owners for benching their star player without any word prior. Those fantasy owners who were once pissed and ready to form an angry mob to march down to Houston to kill Kubiak (including me) now can’t possibly be pissed because Foster got them 34 fantasy points. 

9. Baltimore Ravens 3-1

Flacco/Harbaugh against the Steelers with Big Ben: 4-0. Flacco/Harbaugh against the Steelers without Big Ben: 0-2. Joe Flacco’s late drive to lead his team to victory was impressive, especially considering that was the first time all season the Pittsburgh defense was made look human. However, you still have to wonder what that score looks like if Ben plays. In a few weeks we’ll see as these two, of course, will meet again later in the season, but for now, Flacco’s accomplishment, however impressive, is a bit cheapened by Ben’s suspension.

8. San Diego Chargers 2-2

We still don’t know what type of team this is. They don’t normally start playing good football until late October, early November. They’ve had an extremely easy early season schedule, but thanks to two close and kind of weird losses to the Chiefs and Seahawks on the road, they do sit at 2-2. Their schedule doesn’t get much harder these next two weeks as they face the Raiders and Rams. However, they better bring it weeks 7-9 before the bye as they face New England, Tennessee, and Houston. After the bye, they face division rival Denver and the Colts. If they struggle in those 5 games and go say 2-3, I’d be concerned about their ability to win this division. The Chiefs and Broncos are both better than they were last year.

7. New England Patriots 3-1

The Patriots were really impressive last week, but considering how they won, I don’t think it tells us a ton about this team. This defense looked really bad for most of the time they were on the field, with the exception of their 4 interceptions. This defense might not be able to tackle anyone or cover anyone, but they can take the ball away from you. Their 7 interceptions on the season rank 2nd best in the league, only to Atlanta with 8.

I also want to comment on the Randy Moss move. I live in Boston and the move definitely didn’t go over well with Patriots nation here. I, included, am not a fan of the move. I rather have kept Moss for the season and let him go after then have just gotten a 3rd rounder for him. I’d feel differently if it was the originally rumored 2nd round pick, because in that case, Moss isn;t a huge part of this offense any more, and they probably weren’t going to win the Super Bowl with or without him, and he was going to go for nothing after the season, and it would allow us to build young talent for 2012 or 2013, when Moss would clearly have been out of the picture anyway. But a 3rd rounder is different. It just doesn’t feel like fair value. the only way this move makes sense to me is if there was something internal that we don’t know about that forced him out. It certainly wouldn’t be the first team a team has had to trade Randy Moss for dimes on the dollar for behind the scenes reasons. Unfortunately, since it is the Patriots, we’re never going to know for sure.

6. New York Jets 3-1

In the process of determining if Mark Sanchez has taken the leap in his 2nd year to being a legitimate Super Bowl caliber quarterback, the fact that he just destroyed the Bills means about as little as anything can mean. The fact that a healthy LaDainian Tomlinson is running like he’s 25, however, is huge. The more LT and Shonn Greene (who also rushed for over 100 yards, first time this season, against the Bills) can do, the less Sanchez has to do,a dn the less Sanchez has to do, the better I still say at this point in his career. At the same time, this defense gets Calvin Pace and Darrelle Revis back, and the offense gets Santonio Holmes back from suspension. This team is now 100% and very, very scary.

5. Atlanta Falcons 3-1

I was expecting a letdown after they beat the Saints, essentially their Super Bowl, so I’m not surprised that it took a weird play for them to beat the 49ers by 2. This team is still an elite team in great position to make a deep run this January.

4. New Orleans Saints 3-1

The Saints have won their 3 games by a combined 10 points over three teams that are a combined 1-11. The Super Bowl hangover has hit this team. That’s the bad news. The good news, they’re still 3-1 and you just know that Drew Brees could explode to lead this team to 30+ points on any given week still. You still fear this team and their weapons. I’m not going to pick them to go all the way, especially as their already weak defense will miss Tracy Porter (out indefinitely) and their offense wll miss Reggie Bush, who by even the most optimistic projections, is out until after week 7. Their offense simply isn’t quite the same without him. However, I’m not going to be surprised if they repeated. They’re still a talented bunch sitting at 3-1.

3. Indianapolis Colts 2-2

People in the sports media are panicking and overreacting to the Colts loss to the Jaguars and the fact that they sit at 2-2. The Colts lost to a good Houston team that was playing its heart out and as Jacksonville team that was playing its heart out, because of two weird turnovers and an amazing 59 yard field goal by Jags’ kicker Josh Scobee. There’s a chance they don’t get 12 wins again this year, but they’re still a dangerous team. They still have Peyton Manning and there is no Super Bowl hangover with this team. They’ve been to the Super Bowl before and won it. They won’t be as distracted by losing one, for that reason, than a team that had never been to a Super Bowl together before that.

2. Green Bay Packers 3-1

The fact that the Packers barely beat the Lions by 2 and all the injuries that are adding up (Ryan Grant, Morgan Burnett, Nick Barnett out for the season, Nick Collins out indefinitely) are causes for concern for the Packers. However, they were my Super Bowl pick to start the year and they are still 3-1 with one loss by 3 points, so I’m still ranking them very high. I love the explosiveness of this offense with Aaron Rodgers. I would have loved it more if they had traded for a real running back like Marshawn Lynch, but whatever.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers 3-1

The Steelers lost, by remain my #1 team for the 2nd week in a row because, look what happened to all the other top 5 teams. Atlanta won by 2, New Orleans won by 2, Green Bay won by 2, and the Colts lost. No elite team did amazing last week and the Steelers were easily playing the toughest opponent of the bunch. If this team can mesh well when Big Ben comes back, they’re going far this year. It’s as simple as that.

 

In order you should pick them up

RB Ryan Torain- Washington

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.8%

Torain was already splitting carries with Clinton Portis before Portis got hurt late against the Eagles. No word on how long Portis will be out, but he’s old and certainly had injury issues before. Torain rushed for 70 yards on 19 carries against the Eagles.

WR Lance Moore- New Orleans

Percent owned (ESPN): 35.0%

In 2008, Reggie Bush missed significant time with injury and Moore caught 79 passes for 928 yards and 10 scores as the Saints’ slot receiver. In the last 2 weeks, with Bush out, Moore has caught 11 passes for 186 yards and 3 scores. By even the most optimistic estimations, Bush will miss at least the next three weeks. That means Moore will be the Saints slot receiver as the Saints take on Arizona, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland. There should be opportunity for big fantasy points in there.

TE Brandon Pettigrew- Detroit

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.5%

In the last 3 weeks, the 2^nd year tight end has caught 21 balls for 233 yards. It seems he is finally breaking out and Shaun Hill loves throwing to him.

WR Davone Bess- Miami

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.4%

With Brandon Marshall drawing the coverage off of him, the sure handed Bess has 22 catches for 242 yards and a score in 4 weeks.

TE Benjamin Watson- Cleveland

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.0%

Remember when everyone thought he was done, following a poor contract year in New England. Watson has 15 catches for 169 yards in the last 3 weeks and he has been the Browns best receiver, for what that’s worth.

 

TE Tony Scheffler- Detroit

Percent owned (ESPN): 5.3%

Shaun Hill loves throwing to his tight ends, both Pettigrew and Scheffler. Both are often on the field at the same time. He has 21 catches for 171 yards in 4 games this season.

RB John Kuhn- Green Bay

Percent owned (ESPN): 31.8%

Kuhn is still splitting carries with Brandon Jackson, but he’s been running better than Jackson so he could get the upper hand soon. He’s also the goal line back. The only problem, the Packers are not a running team. He’s still worth a pickup in deep leagues though, but wait until he’s the true lead back before starting him.

WR Mike Thomas- Jacksonville

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.5%

MSW (Mike Sims Walker) has been struggling this season and it appears that Mike Thomas (17 catches for 207 yards) has become the new lead receiver in his 2^nd season. The Jaguars aren’t that good though and their receiving game is very inconsistent.

 

Last week overall: 9-5

Last week ATS: 8-6 (+$680/+19%)

Overall picks: 37-25 (.597)

ATS Picks: 29-30-3 (-$250/-1%)

Lock picks: 3-1

Upset picks: 5-3

Sports Betting FAQ 

Jacksonville Jaguars 28 Buffalo Bills 31 Upset Pick

Spread: -1 1/2 Jacksonville

Pick against spread: Buffalo (2 units) -220

The Jacksonville Jaguars just played their hearts out to win a miracle game against their hated rival Colts. However, the Jaguars don’t always play to their potential. In fact, more often than not, they don’t. I doubt they will this team, after doing so last week, especially against an 0-4 Buffalo team. Ryan Fitzpatrick has proven can he move the ball on bad defenses and the jaguars defense may be even worse than the Patriots. They can score a lot of points in this game. I just doubt the Jaguars, despite having MJD to destroy the Bills weak front 7, will play well enough to match the Bills’ offensive output this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Cincinnati Bengals 17 Upset Pick

Spread: -7 Cincinnati

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay (3 units) +300

Cincinnati is very overrated still. They just lost to the Bills, sit at 2-2, and are 7 point favorites against a 2-1 team coming off its bye. Don’t pay attention to how much Josh Freeman and this offense struggled against the Steelers. Matt Ryan did the same week 1 and he’s 3-0 since. Josh Freeman is still a very competent quarterback, better than the overrated Carson Palmer. Palmer can have a decent game against the Buccaneers weak defense, but if they couldn’t score big amounts of points against the Browns, they won’t be able to against the Buccaneers this week either. This simply is not a team that can score a lot of points. They didn’t last year, for the most part, and they haven’t this year at all. I expect Josh Freeman to lead a last second drive over the Bengals defense to win this hard fought matchup.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Cleveland Browns 16 lock pick

Spread: -3 Atlanta

Pick against the spread: Atlanta (4 units) +400

The Browns are coming off a win and get their starting quarterback back from injury, but I don’t see why they are only given 3 points in this one, especially considering that win was in close fashion against the lowly Bengals and that starting quarterback, Jake Delhomme, should cause more harm than good to this team. Say what you want about Seneca Wallace. He didn’t lose them any games. Delhomme loses games all the time. The Falcons lead the league in interceptions in 8. Delhomme should throw at least 2, probably 3 picks this week, setting up good field position for the Falcons offense against the Browns mediocre defenses all day.

St. Louis Rams 23 Detroit Lions 13 Upset Pick

Spread: -3 Detroit

Pick against spread: St. Louis (3 units) -330

This is probably the only time you’ll see a division leading team be given 3 points against a winless team. The Lions certainly aren’t playing bad, especially for a team that’s missing it’s starting quarterback, they’re just losing, and in close fashion. I expect them to do the same this week, losing in a way that’s a lot closer than the score suggests. However, the Rams are the better team. They have the better quarterback, the better offensive line, the better running game, and the better defense. The Rams defense has been beating up on bad offenses with bad offensive lines all year. The Lions, with Shaun Hill, are certainly not a good offensive team and that line is miserable. The Lions should be able to create pressure on Sam Bradford, something he’s never faced before in the NFL, which is why I think this one will be close, but I like the Rams to win this one because they are overall a more talented team.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Indianapolis Colts 31

Spread: -7 1/2 Kansas City

Pick against spread: Indianapolis (2 units) +200

It is weird seeing the Colts 2-2 facing the 3-0 Chiefs. That just doesn’t seem right. However, the Chiefs are not coming out of this one undefeated. The Chiefs have yet to face a quarterback like Peyton Manning, or anyone even close. They faced Philip Rivers week 1, and only won because they got a long run, an interception, and a punt return touchdown. Cassel actually only passed for 68 yards that game so it’s not like he really matched Philip Rivers, who played decently in early season form. Peyton Manning is a completely different animal. There’s no way that Matt Cassel can match what he will do. It’ll take a true miracle (something along the lines what the Patriots special teams did against the Dolphins week 4) for the Chiefs to score enough points to match the Colts. They do have a strong running game, which helps against a weak Indianapolis run defense, but I don’t think they’ll even be using their best runner, Jamaal Charles, as much as necessary.

Green Bay Packers 28 Washington Redskins 17

Spread: -3 Green Bay

Pick against spread: Green Bay (3 units) -330

The Packers are a sloppy 3-1, barely beating Philly and Detroit, and losing, on the strength of 18 penalties, to the Bears on Monday Night Football. However, they still have an explosive passing game. Their running game is bad, but this is not a running league anymore and the Redskins pass defense is one of the worst in the league. Aaron Rodgers should have a huge game. Considering how good the Packers ground defense is, they’ll force Donovan McNabb to play catch up and match, pretty much by himself and based off of his 8-19 last week, I don’t think that’s something he can do for this team.

Chicago Bears 19 Carolina Panthers 13

Spread: -3 Chicago

Pick against spread: Chicago (2 units) +200

The Bears will miss Jay Cutler this week, with a concussion, and Todd Collins will make his first start since 2007, when he led the Redskins on an unbelievable playoff run in memory of Sean Taylor’s passing. Even without Cutler, this team can still score points this week. The Panthers don’t have anything that resembles a pass rush. They have 4 sacks all year, 2 by their defensive line. Teams with defensive lines that can create pressure give Mike Martz led offenses a hard time. However, teams that blitz give Jay Cutler a hard time. Todd Collins is not Jay Cutler. He doesn’t have Cutler’s down field ability, but he is a veteran and should be able to get the ball out to the open man against a blitz. If the Panthers don’t blitz, well Collins should have plenty on time in the pocket and time in the pocket is what makes this offense go. We all saw what Cutler did with time against the Cowboys. Collins, again, doesn’t have Cutler’s arm, but he can still make some things happen downfield if given time. The Bears are also going to be playing harder this week. The Bears lost their quarterback and teams that lose their quarterback often play 110% in the first game without him. The Panthers are 0-4, coming off a demoralizing loss, and now face a Bears team that was destroyed on Sunday Night Football and is missing their quarterback. The Panthers aren’t going to be able to match what an inspired Bears offensive unit can do against a weak defensive line. Jimmy Clausen is talented, but with Steve Smith down, he has absolutely no receivers to rely on. The Bears defensive line should be able to shut down the Panthers ground attack and force the pressure onto Clausen and his receivers. He won’t be able to match.

 

Denver Broncos 13 Baltimore Ravens 27

Spread: -7 Baltimore

Pick against spread: Baltimore (3 units) +300

Kyle Orton is what makes this Denver team go. However, the Ravens have the best pass defense in the league and have yet to give up more than 167 yards in a game. The Broncos offense is extremely one dimensional. One dimensional offenses, especially finesse type teams like the Broncos, don’t do well against the Ravens. It’s the exact same reason I picked the Broncos to lose to the Ravens when they were 6-0 last year. The logic remains the same. It helped me once, so I’m sticking with it. 

New York Giants 24 Houston Texans 28

Spread: -3 Texans

Pick against spread: Houston (1 unit) -110

I’m not sure I believe in this Giants team. Their offense could only put up 17 points last week, despite the fact that their defense got 10 sacks. The defense isn’t going to get 10 sacks this week. The Texans are capable of protecting their quarterback. The Texans pass defense is not that great, so it will be up to Eli Manning to put points up on the board and finally have a strong game, but I’m not betting on him to, especially with Brian Cushing coming back to the Texans. I expect the Texans strong offense to score enough on the Giants defense to outscore the Giants discombobulated offensive bunch.

New Orleans Saints 24 Arizona Cardinals 21

Spread: -7 New Orleans

Pick against spread: Arizona (2 units) +200

The Cardinals are a completely different team at home than on the road. At home they are 2-0 (+5) and on the road they’re 0-2 (-65). I’m not going to pick them to go 3-0 at home and beat the Saints, but I’m not taking the Saints to cover. The Saints have been favored in each of their games this year and have yet to cover. There is a definite Super Bowl hangover with this team. They could exploide for 30+ and cover any given week, but they have yet to do that. Max Hall, the new quarterback for the Cardinals, can keep teams in games. He’s not Derek Anderson. I expect Hall to keep this one close and Brees to lead a late drive to win it, but to fail to cover once again.

Tennessee Titans 17 Dallas Cowboys 23

Spread: -7 Dallas

Pick against spread: Tennessee (1 unit) +100

This is a tough one. The Titans seem to be alternating, win, loss, win, loss, this year. However, the Cowboys are coming off a bye, which they could have used to regroup, and also an impressive victory on the road against the Texans. The outcome of this game is going to depend a lot on Chris Johnson. When he rushes for more than 100 yards, they win, 2-0. The Cowboys have a fairly capable ground defense and if they can shut him down the way the Steelers and Broncos did, they’re going to win this game. There’s no question about it. Vince Young would have to outthrow Tony Romo to win that game and that’s not something he can do. I like the Cowboys to win, but not to cover. That 7 point spread is a lot for a team that’s 1-2 against a team that has played some really good football at times this year.

San Diego Chargers 20 Oakland Raiders 24 Upset Pick

Spread: -6 1/2 Chargers

Pick against spread: Oakland (3 units) +300

The Raiders haven’t beaten the Chargers in their last 13 matchups. This is the week I think that changes. The Chargers are a completely different team on the road than at home, going 0-2 on the road against the Chiefs and Seahawks. If they can lose to lose two teams on the road, they can lose to the Raiders. The Chargers are in early season form still and we saw them almost lose to the Raiders last year when they were in early season form. LT has always destroyed the Raiders and that’s why they’ve been so dominant. LT isn’t in San Diego anymore. The Raiders are going to be playing their hearts out to beat a tough divisional rival that they haven’t had a lot of success against, the way the Texans and Jaguars did against the Colts and the way the Bills did against the Patriots, though the Bills did end up falling. The Raiders also have their best quarterback since that 13 game streak started. All things are lining up for the Raiders to shock the world and pull off the upset.

Philadelphia Eagles 21 San Francisco 49ers 28

Spread: -3 1/2 San Francisco

Pick against spread: San Francisco (2 units) -220

This is the 49ers last stand. Very few teams make the playoffs after starting 0-5, even in a division as bad as the NFC West. They are going to be playing their hearts out this week. They’re at home, a place they’ve only been once this year. In that game, they played their best overall football and almost beat the Saints. The Eagles have to travel across 3 time zones, something that teams have trouble doing in the NFL. The 49ers are also playing at home, on Sunday Night Football. Teams this year are 7-2 against the spread at home on either Monday Night or Sunday Night Football. Those two losses were both the Dolphins. I’ve got the 49ers winning, playing 110% at home in their last stand under the Sunday Night Football lights, against a team that’s traveling 3 time zones. However, I’m only putting 2 units, instead of 3. The spread is 3.5 and I could definitely see the 49ers winning by a field goal late.

Minnesota Vikings 17 New York Jets 20

Spread: -4 New York Jets

Pick against spread: Minnesota (1 unit)

This was the toughest pick for me. The Vikings are coming off a bye and just added Randy Moss to their team. Moss won’t do much against Darrelle Revis likely, but he will keep Revis off of Percy Harvin. Harvin, rested off of a bye, should have a big game this week. However, the Jets are playing really well right now beating all 3 AFC East opponents in consectutive weeks. Nothing impressive really about blowing out the Bills, but beating the Dolphins and Patriots are both impressive feats. The Jets are also finally at full strength. Darrelle Revis and Calvin Pace should both be back from injury this week and Santonio Holmes is back from his 4 game suspension. At the end of the day, I decided the Jets defense would be too much for Brett Favre on the road. Favre will probably be sacked and picked off quite a bit this week and that’ll lead to good field position for the Jets. However, I’m taking the Vikings against the spread. Never pick a favorite of more than 3 points in a game between teams you see as evenly matched, because there’s a good chance that game is going to be won by a field goal.

 

WR Steve Breaston- Arizona

Out

RB Ray Rice- Baltimore

Practiced fine all week. After playing last week, I doubt he misses this week. All systems go with Rice against Denver.

RB DeAngelo Williams- Carolina

Missed one practice with an illness this week, but he came back fine from it and he’s going to be out there Sunday.

WR Steve Smith- Carolina

Out.

QB Jay Cutler- Chicago

Out. 

RB Peyton Hillis- Cleveland

He sat out Friday with a thigh injury for precautionary reasons, but the team expects him to play so you should too. He might be limited though with that injury.

WR Josh Cribbs- Cleveland

Expected to play, but he’s still too inconsistent to be in your lineup regularly.

TE Jason Witten- Dallas

Practiced all week with a knee injury. Seems like the bye came at a perfect time for him as he will play this week.

RB Knowshon Moreno- Denver

Out.

QB Matt Stafford- Detroit

Out. 

RB Jahvid Best- Detroit

Practiced through the same toe injury which he played through last week. Look like all systems a go with Best vs. St. Louis.

TE Tony Scheffler- Detroit

Missed serious practice this week with a concussion and I expect the Lions to sit him for precautionary reasons this week. They do have him listed as questionable however, so check back here tomorrow or follow me on twitter, just to make sure.

WR Andre Johnson- Houston

Listed as a game time decision, all though the consensus is that he’ll play. Check back tomorrow though or follow me on twitter.

WR Jacoby Jones- Houston

Also a game time decision. If he plays and Johnson doesn’t, he could have a big game so monitor both of those situations and check back here tomorrow or follow me on twitter.

TE Owen Daniels- Houston

He looks like he’s gonna play, but between this hamstring problem and his knee problem, he’s nowhere near 100%. He has 7 catches in 4 games this year. Sit him.

 

WR Anthony Gonzalez- Indianapolis

Out.

WR Pierre Garcon- Indianapolis

Practiced in full two days straight, but is still listed as questionable. I’d expect him to play and he could be worth a start depending on the status of Indy’s other receivers.

WR Reggie Wayne- Indianapolis

Missed a day of practice this week, but it doesn’t appear to be too bad. He’s listed as probable and should be back out there. A lot is made of Peyton Manning’s durability. Wayne hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year back in 2000.

WR Austin Collie- Indianapolis

Missed two days of practice this week before practicing Friday. He’s listed as a game time decision so check back tomorrow or follow me on twitter. If he doesn’t play, Garcon is fantasy startable.

RB Donald Brown- Indianapolis

Not officially out, but I see no way he plays.

RB Joseph Addai- Indianpolis

He’s hurt, but he hasn’t missed practice. He’ll start.

RB Maurice Jones Drew- Jacksonville

MJD sprained an ankle last week and missed some practice time, but he’s expected to be back out there for their game. They face Buffalo who can’t stop anyone on the ground. MJD could have a huge week for the 2nd straight week after gutting the Colts for 105.

QB Brett Favre- Minnesota

Has bad elbow inflamation, but of course he’ll be out there. I don’t know if I’d start him though. He’s playing bad and that elbow isn’t helping him out at all.

TE Visanthe Shiancoe- Minnesota

Upgraded from questionable to probable late in the week, definitely a good sign. Even though he didn’t get through a full day of practice all week. He doesn’t play until Monday, which is risky, but I expect him to be out. I’d take that risk, unless there’s a good waiver pickup available to plug in instead.

RB Fred Taylor- New England

He’s likely out after missing practice all week.

RB Pierre Thomas- New Orleans

Out.

QB Drew Brees- New Orleans

WR Marques Colston- New Orleans

Both of them practiced all week and should play.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw- NY Giants

He’s got a sore ankle, but he has assured us many times that he’ll play and carry a full workload this week. He played through this kind of stuff last year. He’s a tough kid.

RB Darren McFadden- Oakland

Out.

WR Chaz Schilens- Oakland

Out.

TE Zach Miller- Oakland

Miller has a sore hip, but is expected to play. No worries here. As I projected, he’s a fantasy beast.

QB Michael Vick- Philadelphia

Out.

TE Brent Celek- Philadelphia

He has practiced all week through a wrist injury for the 2nd straight week. He’s fine. Have him in your lineup this week as his BFF Kevin Kolb is starting at quarterback. Kolb loves the checkdown to Celek and LeSean McCoy. 

RB LeSean McCoy- Philadelphia

He did practice in full friday and is expected to start versus San Francisco. He might not be 100%, but he’s an awesome fantasy player, especially with Kevin Checkdown Kolb at quarterback.

RB Steven Jackson- St. Louis

He’s got a groin injury, but I legitimately believe he’d play even if he got shot before the game. He’s that badass.

TE Kellen Winslow- Tampa Bay

He’s got a knee injury, but that’s nothing new. I think he was born with a knee injury. He’s going to play anyway as he always does.

WR Justin Gage- Tennessee

Out.

QB Donovan McNabb- Washington

Practiced all week with a thigh injury. If he’s your starter, roll with him.

RB Clinton Portis- Washington

Out.

 

Week 5 Injury Report 

Week 5 Pickups 

9/22/11 8 PM ET

NC State at Cincinnati

RB Isaiah Pead (Cincinnati) #23

The senior running back rushed for 1029 yards and 6 touchdowns on 157 carries in 2010 and currently projects as a mid round pick in 2012. He’s a decent pass catcher with 26 catches in 2010, but he plays out of a weird scheme and doesn’t have great size at 5-10 200. He doesn’t have the breakaway speed to make up for it so he seems destined for day 3.

TE George Bryan (NC State) #84

Bryan is in position to take advantage of a weak tight end class. He’s a quality blocker at 6-5 265 and he’s got decent speed in the 4.7s. He’s not the best pass catcher, but he caught 40 balls in 2009 and 35 balls in 2010. If he improves on those numbers in 2011, he could be a day 2 pick.

9/23/11 8 PM ET

UCF at BYU

DT Hebron Fangupo (BYU) #91

An monster at 6-1 330 with an impressive 5.0 40, Fangupo couldn’t get onto the field at USC and transferred to BYU. In 3 games this season, the big man has 7 tackles, 3 for a loss, and is gaining late round consideration. He’ll need to keep that up, however, because his age, 26 years old, could turn a lot of teams off late in the draft.

OT Matt Reynolds (BYU) #70

A left tackle at BYU, but projects as a right tackle or even a guard at the next level. He’s not very athletic and his height, 6-4, suggests guard. At 322 pounds, he’s a monster as a run blocker, but needs to work on his form and his lateral quickness in pass protection. He’s also 24 because he spent 2 years on as a Mormon missionary. He projects as a day 2 pick.

9/24/11 12 PM ET

North Carolina at Georgia Tech

DE Quinton Coples (North Carolina) #90

Robert Quinn was a candidate for the #1 overall pick in 2011, before a season long suspension. He eventually went 14^th. Quinn’s replacement at end at North Carolina was Quinton Coples. Coples, who had 5 sacks as a rotational player in 2009, burst onto the scene with 10 sacks in his first year as a starter in 2010. At 6-6 280 with 4.7 speed, Coples figures to be the first defensive player off the board in this April’s NFL draft and could challenge Matt Kalil to be the first non-quarterback taken if he keeps this up. He has 2 sacks in 2 games so far this season, all while providing a huge force against the run.

WR Dwight Jones (North Carolina) #83

The massive Dwight Jones has not yet become a popular projected first round pick, but after 62 catches for 946 yards and 4 scores in 2010, the 6-5 Jones already has 20 catches for 336 yards and 4 scores in 3 games this season. He had 5 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown last week against Virginia, abusing potential first round pick cornerback Chase Minnifield. Even more impressive, he’s doing this with inconsistent play at the quarterback position. He has 4 of his school’s 5 receiving touchdowns and almost half of their receiving yards. If he keeps this up, he’ll be a first rounder.

 

9/24/11 3:30 PM ET

Oklahoma State at Texas A&M

WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State) #81

Justin Blackmon is in a battle with South Carolina’s Alshon Jeffery to be the first receiver off the board in 2012. Jeffery is bigger and succeeding despite not having an elite quarterback, but there’s something to be said for a guy like Blackmon who catches everything in sight. The 6-1 210 pound Blackmon had 111 catches for 1782 yards and 20 scores last year, despite missing one game. He had at least 100+ yards in every game. He already has 27 catches for 329 yards and 3 scores this season, but he’s coming off a mere 57 yard effort against Tulsa last week. Alshon Jeffery is disappointing a bit this year, so Blackmon has the opportunity to overtake him on the totem pole.

WR Jeff Fuller (Texas A&M) #8

Fuller is another first round caliber receiver. He so far hasn’t broken out this season, with just 11 catches for 131 yards and no touchdowns in 2 games, but he’s still got the ability to have a break out game at any time. The 6-4 Fuller had 72 catches for 1066 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2010.

9/24/11 7 PM ET

Vanderbilt at South Carolina

CB Stephon Gilmore (South Carolina) #5

Once seen as the 2^nd best cornerback in this draft class after Dre Kirkpatrick, Gilmore is slipping a bit in recent weeks. In his 3^rd year as a starter, the AP All-American 3^rd teamer as a sophomore in 2010 needs a good game this week to regain his status as the #2 cornerback in this class. LSU’s Morris Claiborne is a rising prospect who could overtake him.

WR Alshon Jeffery (South Carolina) #1

Alshon Jeffery had 89 catches for 1517 yards and 9 scores in 2010 despite inconsistent quarterback play. The 6-3 receiver has been compared to Larry Fitzgerald, but he’s struggled a bit this season with 12 catches for 212 yards and a score. After a mere 2 catches against Navy last week, Jeffery needs a good game this week against Vanderbilt, who possesses a day 2 prospect in Casey Hayward at cornerback.

9/24/11 10:15 PM ET

USC at Arizona State

QB Matt Barkley (USC) #7

Matt Barkley was billed as a future #1 overall pick out of High School. Barkley has lived up to the hype, but likely won’t be the #1 pick because of Andrew Luck. Improving again in his 3^rd season as a starter, Barkley, the first true freshman starting quarterback in USC history, has completed 69% of his passes for an average of 7.7 per attempt, and 9 touchdowns to 1 interception.

S TJ McDonald (USC) #7

McDonald, a big strong safety with great triangle numbers with 6-3 205, is similar to another former USC safety, Taylor Mays. He had 89 tackles and 3 picks last year, but inconsistent play in coverage has him probably looking at being a day 2 pick. This is a weak safety class, however, so he could be drafted in the first out of desperation.

 

()= Last week’s rank 

32(32). Buffalo Bills 0-3

Well the move to Ryan Fitzpatrick seems to have paid off as Fitz threw for 6 more yards and led the team to 13 more points than Trent Edwards had in their first 2 games. Unfortunately for the Bills, Tom Brady can light up any defense that’s not the Jets and the Bills still lost 38-30. Fortunately for the Bills, their defense won’t be facing Tom Brady every week and thus won’t be giving up 38 points every week. Unfortunately for the Bills, Ryan Fitzpatrick won’t be able to face the Patriots cupcake defense every week. Also unfortunately for the Bills, they are one of just 5 0-3 teams and with their next 5 opponents a combined 11-4 right now, the future doesn’t look too much brighter.

The Bills have made a lot of questionable decisions in the recent months. Whether or not you agree with their decision to use a the #9 pick on a running back, when their running game was the team’s strength and the offensive line and quarterback position were in shambles, you have to be confused by the fact that they aren’t using him. Spiller has received 12 carries in 3 games. Like I predicted, thanks to their lack of a good offensive line and a good quarterback, the talented Spiller only has 38 yards, a 3.2 YPA.

Also, in a mere three weeks, this team went from saying that Trent Edwards was their guy to outright releasing Trent Edwards. They couldn’t have learned that much in Edwards’ 52 attempts this season that they didn’t already know from his previous 826 attempts (no arm strength, no idea how to lead a drive, no willingness to throw down field). Why did they cut him now, after having to pay him a roster bonus as well as two weeks’ salary, rather than cutting him in the early offseason?

Actually, tying this point in with the last point, why didn’t they just draft a quarterback at 9? Or 41? Jimmy Clausen was there at 41. This is the same Jimmy Clausen that looked halfway decent for the Panthers in his first career start against an amazing Cincinnati defense, despite not having any offensive line in front of him, despite having a suddenly moronic John Fox calling the shots on the sidelines, and despite not having a single receiver capabale of creating separation between him and his man.

31(30). Cleveland Browns 0-3

Are the Browns better than they look? After all, they haven’t lost by more than double digits yet this season and actually looked decent hanging with the Ravens last week in a 7 point loss. I’d say defensively, they are underrated. That defense is better than most think. However, offensively they are miserable, especially through the air. Their receiving corps are probably the worst in the NFL and Seneca Wallace is not even one of the 32 best quarterbacks in the NFL today. How Peyton Hillis ran for a huge day against Baltimore’s defense and a stacked box is beyond me, but I doubt he can keep that up. That’s the only reason why they weren’t blown out at Baltimore. And the reason they weren’t blown out in their first two games is because they were playing the Chiefs and Buccaneers.

30(28). Detroit Lions 0-3

The injury bug has not been kind to the Lions this year. First it blew up Matt Stafford’s shoulder (well technically Julius Peppers, who Jeff Backus attempted to block, did) and now Jahvid Best, hailed as the heir to Barry Sanders after his amazing week 2, has gone down with an injured toe. Laugh all you want, toe injuries can be deadly to running backs. They can absolutely sap their explosiveness in the way an ankle or a hamstring injury would. In fact, if not for Best’s injury, they might have beaten the Vikings last week. It’s not like Brett Favre was playing well, even Lions the Packers miserable secondary. Between Stafford’s injury, Best’s injury, and that touchdown that wasn’t by Calvin Johnson week 1, the Lions are my pick for the unluckiest team in the league this year. I guess the football gods couldn’t stand to see the Lions with a good record, as they could easily be 2-1 so far with some luck.

29(25). Jacksonville Jaguars 1-2

Can you even call what the Jaguars have a defense?  In addition to ranking 24^th against the run, something they were attempting to improve by drafting Tyson Alualu #10 overall in April, the Jaguars are dead last against the pass, giving up 9.9 yards per attempt (almost a first down every time the other team throws). I didn’t think their secondary could be worse than it was last season, but it has somehow managed to be. And with Peyton Manning coming into town this week, that’s a bad sign. The only reason the Jaguars have stood a chance against the Colts in recent years (2 double digit losses in their last 16 meetings) is because the Jaguars frequently have a strong running game, which has been the achilles heel of the Colts defense since as long as I can remember. However, with Maurice Jones Drew hurt and struggling, they don’t stand a chance this week. In fact, until MJD is right, this team is going to have to rely on David Garrard (or even worse, recent pickup Trent Edwards) to make plays downfield enough to compensate for this defense. They aren’t going to beat a lot of teams that way.

28(26). Oakland Raiders 1-2

Earlier I talked about how the football gods couldn’t stand to see the Lions with a good record. Something similar is happening in Oakland. Some teams are just supposed to be bad. The Raiders solidified their defense this offseason and finally got a competent quarterback. 2 weeks later, they had to bench Jason Campbell for Bruce Gradkowski. 3 weeks later they sit at 1-2 (despite early games against St. Louis and Arizona) and their defense is allowing the 9^th most points in the league (again, despite early games against St. Louis and Arizona). They would have been 2-1, but Sebastian Janikowski missed a chip shot that most high schoolers could hit, to end the game. It’s ok, though, he’s a kicker. They’re notoriously inconsistent. That’s why you don’t use first round picks on them…oh wait.

27(29). Arizona Cardinals 2-1

A lesson can be learned from the Cardinals this year. Even if you lose half of your team in the offseason, you can still start the season 2-1 if you have early season games against the Rams and Raiders. Don’t buy into this team at all. They beat those 2 miserable teams by a combined 5 points and should have lost to the Raiders if it wasn’t for that missed field goal. In their other game, they lost to the Falcons by 34. Those are the real Cardinals.

The sad thing is, with the early season Chargers, the Seahawks (twice), the Buccaneers, the not really as good as their record says Chiefs, the Panthers, the 49ers (twice), and the Broncos on their schedule this season, they could win this division. If they go 4-5 in those games (not completely crazy) and get a fluke win in one of their other 4 games, they could win this division and go to the playoffs. Imagine that. Derek Anderson in the playoffs. Gotta love the NFC West.

26(23). Carolina Panthers 0-3

Considering he’s a rookie, it’s his 3^rd career week in the NFL, it was his first start, it was against a Bengals defensive squad that made Joe Flacco look like Kyle Boller, his coach has suddenly become a moron who can’t create a successful game plan, his receivers have no idea how to get open, his center has no idea how to snap a football, and his offensive line can’t pass block or run block, and he had a good 5 days of working with the first team to get prepared, Clausen’s 16 for 33 for 188 yards and a pick performance wasn’t terrible. Maybe if this team gets themselves together, they can actually win a few games. Clausen is going to have more time with the first team in the coming weeks, meaning more time with his receivers, his line, and figuring out how to hold onto a crummy snap by center Andrew Crummey. Their rookie receivers, Brandon LaFell and David Gettis, will continue to mature. Maybe John Fox will remember how to write a game plan.

Note to John Fox, the strength of your offense is your running game, not your passing game, so I have no idea why they have passed 92 times to 81 runs this season and I’m not just saying that as a frustrated Jonathan Stewart fantasy owner.

25(27). Denver Broncos 1-2

Did Kyle Orton shoot up with steroids this offseason? His arm strength is much improved from last season. In fact, he threw for more yards last week than John Elway ever did in a single week. They still lost, but that’s not really his fault. It’s not his fault they can’t run or stop Peyton Manning. Actually no one can stop Peyton Manning, but you get the point. In 3 games, Kyle Orton has a YPA of 8.6, 2.2 higher than his career average and 1.6 career than his career high, a 66.4% completion percentage, up 7.9 points from his career average and 4.3 from his career high, a QB rating of 96.4, 18.8 points higher than average and 10.6 points higher than his career high, and 1078 yards, good for 2^nd most in the league. If only he had some help.

24(31). St. Louis Rams 1-2

The Rams won their first home game since October of 2008 and just like their last home victory, it was a surprise upset of an NFC East team (Cowboys in 2008 and Redskins in 2010) deemed significantly better than them. The Rams hope what happened in 2008 afterwards, they won again the next week, happens again this year, and with the travel challenged Seahawks (3-14 on the road since 2008, 6-19 since 2007) coming to town, that’s possible. In the horrible NFC West, that win might be enough to put them at least in a tie for 1^st place. Gotta love the NFC West.

The rest of the NFL should look at St. Louis as an example of what to do when you suck. If you suck and your quarterback sucks, draft a new quarterback. Quarterback challenged teams like Cleveland, Seattle, Arizona, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, and Minnesota should take note. Obviously don’t reach for a quarterback that didn’t grade out well with you, but if you scout a kid and bring him in for a workout and you’ve determined that’s he’s got the potential to be a top 10 or top 15 quarterback in the league, take him. You won’t win a Super Bowl without a top 10 or top 15 quarterback. Sam Bradford looks on track to become one of those quarterbacks.

23(21). Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-1

Last week I said this team could win 7 or 8 games and put themselves in good position to make the leap back into the playoffs in 2011 because Josh Freeman looked for real at quarterback. After Freeman’s 20 for 31 for 184 yards and a pick against Pittsburgh last week, my stance remains unchanged. The Steelers are that tough of a defense, especially on your quarterbacks. Is Matt Ryan bad because he went 27 of 44 for 252 yards and a pick week 1 against Pittsburgh. The 40 for 62 for 453 yards 5 picks and 0 picks he’s thrown since then would beg to differ. How about Vince Young, who went 7 for 10 for 66 yards and 2 picks and got benched against Pittsburgh. Young has gone 23 for 33 for 274 yards 3 touchdowns and 0 picks in his other 2 games, both of them, like Ryan’s, were wins. Freeman has a tough matchup against Cincinnati week 5, after his bye, and then New Orleans week 6 but after that, except him to get back on track against St. Louis, Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, and San Francisco. He’s a good quarterback and with a good year he’ll be knocking on top 15, can win a Super Bowl with the right supporting cast, status.

22(24). Kansas City Chiefs 3-0

For the first week this year, I can’t say the Chiefs won in spite of Matt Cassel. Sure his 16 for 27 for 250 yards 3 touchdowns and 1 interception performance, in a 31-10 win over San Francisco, was aided by San Francisco’s miserable secondary and suddenly miserable pass rush, but he play well. If he continues to do that, this team is going to be a legitimate threat to San Diego in the division, but I need to see him continue to do that before I can call them any more than a 7 or 8 win team.

And as for the Todd Haley for Coach of the Year talk, I think it’s extremely premature and extremely off. This is the coach who’s not even using his best player as a starter, at least best offensive player (Brandon Flowers has moved into the team’s best overall player spot in my mind). Jamaal Charles once again outgained Thomas Jones despite getting fewer touches, something he’s done every week of this season and something he did last season as well, when Jones was in New York.

21(22). Seattle Seahawks 2-1

The Seahawks are proving once again that they are a great home team, winning two games in impressive fashion at home so far. However, they do need to win on the road too. This team is 3-14 on the road since 2008. Also, they aren’t going to get two amazing kick return touchdowns from Leon Washington every week, so they’re going to need to find a different way to get points for the future. They’re 1-2 without Washington’s returns. Also, they’ve been lucky enough to not face any teams with an elite pass rush. Matt Hasselbeck is really going to struggle against an elite pass rush.

20(10). San Francisco 49ers 0-3

I can’t remember the last time I picked a 0-3 team to win their division. Think about it, Seattle and Arizona are both 2-1, but are either of those teams actually that good. St. Louis is 1-2, but can you really pick the Rams to win this division. That leaves the 49ers, who sit a mere 2 games out. If they fix some of their mental mistakes and actually get their plays called in time, they could still be a good team. I’m not liking what I’ve seen out of their defense at all, with their poor secondary and suddenly mediocre pass rush, but Alex Smith is actually playing decent overall, when you consider the play calling and the issues with getting plays called in team.

I do have to say I love the NFC West. Think about it, either Alex Smith, Derek Anderson, Matt Hasselbeck, or Sam Bradford are going to the playoffs this year, that is unless of course, Smith is benched for David Carr, Derek Anderson is benched for Max Hall, or Matt Hasselbeck is benched for Charlie Whitehurst. The NFC West also single handedly made me change my Power Rankings format. I used to have to make sure that all projected division winners would be in the top 10, to fit the title I used for each section (playoffs and maybe more, dark horses, etc) but I couldn’t put San Fran, my projected NFC West winner, or really any NFC West team, in the top 10 this week, so I changed it up and got rid of categories.

Finally, I’d like to say that the 49ers don’t need to make any drastic changes. Yes, Jimmy Raye needed to go. This were right in firing him. However, Mike Singletary is a good coach. How will firing him help? Who are they going to hire instead? I also don’t agree the calls for Alex Smith to be benched. I don’t know if anyone has had a more unlucky to start to his career, whether it be injuries, a bad offensive line, a revolving door of o-coordinators, or to start this season, an o-coordinator who can’t get the plays off in time. He’s had less of a chance than David Carr to prove himself, and just as bad luck. Let him play out the year and if he struggles and they miss the playoffs, draft another quarterback. Carr isn’t going to be the longterm answer anyway.

19(21). Philadelphia Eagles 2-1

How are people considering Michael Vick a top 5 quarterback right now? He wasn’t even a top 5 quarterback before he went to jail. He’s had 2 good starts against crappy defenses (Detroit and Jacksonville) and two strong quarters in garbage time against a Green Bay team who he caught off guard. Even so, a 61% completion percentage and a YPA of 8.4 are already amazing stats, especially for two easy games. Kevin Kolb went 24 for 34 for 302 yards and 2 scores against the Chiefs last year. Why isn’t he a top 5 NFL quarterback? I expect Vick to struggle more this week against the Redskins, who have a decent, but not terrible defense.

18(8). Washington Redskins 1-2

Before the Redskins’ game with the Rams last week, I saw the tiny spread in favor of the Redskins and jumped on it, over the lowly Rams, who were 6-43 in their last 49 before that. However, the Rams won. I think the reasoning for that was that the Redskins were tired. They played their hearts out in a loss in overtime to the Texans, a devastating loss that at one point they dominated. McNabb had Philadelphia circled on his schedule next, going home to face the team that discarded him, and he simply paid no attention or at least no respect to the Rams. And he lost. This just goes to show that anything can happen on any given Sunday.

17(9). New York Giants 1-2

My prediction, Tom Coughlin will be fired either during this season or directly after it. This is a talented team. They just aren’t playing well. A lot of that has to do with Eli Manning, who has suddenly transformed from Super Bowl winning game manager to 6 interception in 3 games gunslinger, and not the good kind of gunslinger. However, the blame is going to fall on Coughlin. Coughlin’s been there a while and it may just be team for a chance of voice.

You also can’t underestimate what the loss of former defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has meant to this team. Their once Super Bowl winning pass rush has been bottom of the barrel in terms of sacks since Spagnuolo, now Rams coach, left.

16(18). Minnesota Vikings 1-2

They may have won last week against the Lions by 14, but they’re issues are hardly behind them. Brett Favre’s performance, 23 for 34 for 201 yards a touchdown and 2 picks, against Detroit is hardly impressive. This offense needs to get themselves together in the bye week otherwise they’re not making the playoffs. The defense is playing well, much better than their much hyped offensive unit, giving up a total of 38 points in 3 games. But their offense, outside of Adrian Peterson, isn’t doing anything. They need to get themselves ready for the rest of the season during the bye week. They won’t be woken out of their bye rest easily, facing the Jets, Cowboys, Packers, and Patriots (4 playoff teams from 2009) in consecutive weeks.

 

15(16). Cincinnati Bengals 2-1

Anyone else noticing how bad Carson Palmer is? Palmer has a 57% completion percentage for a YPA of 5.8, with 3 touchdowns and 3 picks, but really 5 picks as two were dropped against Baltimore. And it’s not like he can blame his supporting cast anymore. The line is playing surprisingly well, keeping defenders out of his face. He’s also been sacked 3 times. His receiving corps are stacked with guys like Ochocinco, TO, Jordan Shipley, and Jermaine Gresham. Cedric Benson is an extremely talented back, though he doesn’t look it as opponents can stack the box against him. It’s pathetic for Palmer when you have Ocho and TO on your side and you still can’t make the defense fear your long game enough to keep the men out of the box. And it’s not like he’s facing amazing defenses. Other than Baltimore, he’s faced New England (who gave up 30 points to Ryan Fitzpatrick, Palmer’s former backup, last week), and Carolina. I don’t expect him to be much better against Cleveland’s underrated squad this week.

Luckily for him, this defense is awesome, so they can still realistically carry him to the playoffs, though not likely. With the exception of those 38 points they gave up to New England, they have given up 17 points in 2 games, all while generating a mere 3 sacks. That just goes to show how awesome Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph are at cornerback. A decent quarterback, with all of those weapons I named on offense, and this amazing defensive squad, should be able to win 11 with this team. Palmer will be lucky to win 9.

14(15). Miami Dolphins 2-1

I’m moving the Dolphins up 1 slot even after their loss, because Chad Henne finally proved, for the first time this season, that he could make things happen downfield with his cannon for an arm, if necessary. I’m guessing the reason we didn’t see it in the first 2 weeks was because it was unnecessary. Chad Henne threw for 363 yards on 26 for 44 for 2 scores and a pick against New York’s defense week 3, in a loss. Yeah, this is a watered down Jets defense (no Kris Jenkins, no Darrelle Revis, no Calvin Pace), but they’re still a very solid squad. You saw what they did to Tom Brady week 2. And you saw what Tom Brady did to the Bengals and Bills weeks 1 and 3.

However, the defense has gone south at the wrong time. Allowing 31 points to the Jets’ offense is bad. Even the Patriots didn’t do that (28). I had some concerns about this defense going into the season. Their secondary was secretly awful last season (31^st in the league) and was starting 3 players who had less than 2 years of experience this season. After cutting their top two pass rushers for 2009, Jason Taylor and Joey Porter, I wondered if they’d be able to create enough pressure to mask their secondary’s weaknesses. Their 6 sacks aren’t horrible, but allowing 402 yards to the Jets is not a good sign, especially having to face Tom Beiber…er Brady next week.

13(17). Tennessee Titans 2-1

Vince Young is not bad. Vince Young has had a good season, with the exception of that Pittsburgh game. At the same time, Josh Freeman has had a good season, with the exception of that Pittsburgh game. Same with Matt Ryan. Vince will be fine going forward and this team, when he’s right, is capable of making the playoffs. Remember, Vince is 10-3 as starter since he took over mid last season. He’s had help from this defense, this offensive line, and someone named Chris Johnson, but he still has all of those assets on his side this season so he and his team should be fine.

12(13). Baltimore Ravens 2-1

I think we can forgive Joe Flacco rough early season start. Weeks 1 and 2 he was 37 for 77 for 402 yards 1 touchdown and 6 picks, but he was facing two playoff teams from 2009, the Jets and Bengals, whose strengths are their defenses, with 6 days to prepare in between, on the road. In better conditions, across the Browns, Flacco threw for 3 scores, no picks, on 22 for 31 for 262 yards. Now he faces Pittsburgh. Actually, that just doesn’t sound fair.

11(5). San Diego Chargers 1-2

It’s tough to tell whether or not this team just sucks because it’s early in the season and they always suck early in the season or whether they actually just suck. They better hope it’s the former, because the Chiefs already have a 2 game lead and own the tiebreaker. In a way, this reminds me of last year, when the Broncos surprisingly jumped out to a 6-0 record early, and the Chargers sat at 2-3, and the Chargers still won that division by 5 games, but I’d still be concerned if I were a Chargers fan. They’ve let a lot of good players go in recent years that they simply haven’t replaced and they haven’t made a good draft pick early since they drafted Antonio Cromartie in 2006.

10(12). Dallas Cowboys 1-2

The Cowboys finally looked like the team they were supposed to be, beating a good Texans team in impressive fashion. Unlike the Vikings, who also got a win to avoid an 0-3 start, the Cowboys actually looked good doing so and have instilled hope in me once again that this team can make the playoffs. It took them a while though. Between their 5 preseason games and those two regular season losses, they essentially had a 7 game warm up period. Let’s hope for their sake they stay strong for the rest of the way because they can still make the playoffs. That 0-2 start didn’t doom them to anything if they play well in their next 13 games.

9(11). New York Jets 2-1

Every week Mark Sanchez has a good game, it makes me believe more and more that this team can win the Super Bowl. Unfortunately he’s only so I’m not that high on this team as a Super Bowl contender. However, a talented quarterback was the missing ingredient to their Super Bowl formula before the season and now it appears that Sanchez is well on his way to being that top 15, top 10 quarterback that all Super Bowl winners need. Remember, only one quarterback in the past 20 years has won a Super Bowl, before making a Pro Bowl, and that was Eli Manning in 2008, who made the Pro Bowl the following year. Interpretation, you don’t win a Super Bowl without a good quarterback. Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson get ragged on as being the worst quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl in the past 20 years, but both of them had made Pro Bowls before hoisting the trophy.

8(7). New England Patriots 2-1

Their offense is really good. Their defense is really bad. Until one of those things changes, this team is a playoff team, but nothing else. Tom Brady has proven he can light up any defense that isn’t the Jets’. The Pats defense has proven that they’d have a hard time holding Boston College under 30. I mean they couldn’t hold the Bills under 30. What makes you think they could hold a college team under 30?

7(19). Chicago Bears 3-0

Their 3-0 start has had a lot to do with luck, but it’s not been all luck. Yes, if a few things had gone differently, they could realistically be 0-3 or 1-2, but look at how they are playing. If you’re a running back, you might as well take the day off against them. You’re not getting many yards. This run defense, this defensive line, and especially this pass rush, led by Julius Peppers, has been amazing. Peppers may only have 1 sack (week one when you blew up Matt Stafford’s shoulder), but if it wasn’t for all the holds he caused the Green Bay Packers offensive line to commit to stop him, he might have 3 or 4 sacks easily. He’s that tough to stop.

The defensive line and the front 7 have proven, no Tommie Harris, coach’s decision, no problem as they are holding opponents to under 3 yards per carry anyway. A big part of their strong and improved run defense is the return of Brian Urlacher. Despite his age and his injury from 2009, he is still as scary as ever.

While the defense is traditional Bears defense, the offense is far from traditional Bears offense. And I don’t just mean that because they finally appear to have a capable signal caller. I mean that because they aren’t traditional at all. They give up sacks. They throw interceptions. But they get the job done with big plays and they are 3-0, thanks in large part, to their 66 points. I don’t have them as a legitimate Super Bowl contender, as they’ve only won their 3 games by a combined 15 points and could easily be 1-2 or 0-3, but maybe in the future I will consider them that.

6(4). Houston Texans 2-1

All good things must come to an end and that includes Houston’s amazing and inspiring start to the season. Forever cast aside as a team that couldn’t make the playoffs and couldn’t beat the colts, the Texans started the season by beating the Colts by over a touchdown and then mounting an amazing comeback to beat the Redskins in overtime, despite trailing, at one point, by multiple scores. They couldn’t continue that week 3 against the Cowboys, but it’s definitely not panicking team. That was a good Cowboys team they lost to. They can get back on track this week versus the Raiders.

5(14). Atlanta Falcons 2-1

Beating the Saints in the Super Dome was like their Super Bowl. It’ll be interesting what kind of energy they play with next week, whether they come up energized or complacent, with the 0-3 49ers coming into town. However, I’m not here to talk about that game. I’m going to talk about that win. That win cemented the Falcons as an elite team in this league and possibly the favorite in the NFC South. The season is early and I don’t want to take the NFC South title away from the Saints just yet, especially considering, if they made that late kick from about 30 yards out, the Saints would have won that game, but the Falcons are definitely a team to fear now.

4(3). New Orleans Saints 2-1

The Saints have been beaten in a close game at the Superdome. They are no longer invincible. They have yet to go over 30 points in a game. They could be suffered a Super Bowl hangover. Garrett Hartley, last year’s hero, has lost his starting job after missing 3 field goals in his first three games, including the game winner against Atlanta in overtime, a chip shot. This isn’t the same team that won it all last year. They can get it together and become that team, especially once Darren Sharper returns, but the Falcons have made them bleed and made them appear human, and once that happens, the floodgates could open.

3(2). Indianapolis Colts 2-1

Running game? Nope. Pass protection? Nope. Pass defense? Nope. Run defense? Nope Healthy receiving corps? Nope. Peyton Manning? Yep. And really that’s all they’ve needed this season to start 2-1. Their running game, supposed to be one of their best in the Peyton Manning era with both Joseph Addai and Donald Brown healthy, is averaging 3.3 yards per carry and has yet to have a carry that went for more than 17 yards. That offensive line has looked fine on paper, only giving up 3 sacks. However, any other quarterback behind that line is sacked 6-7 times. Peyton Manning is just that robotic at getting the ball out of his hands right before the pressure gets there. Their pass defense is giving up 7.6 yards per attempts and just allowed Kyle Orton to throw for more yards than John Elway ever did. Their run defense is giving up 5 yards per carry. Their receiving corps are missing both Pierre Garcon and Anthony Gonzalez. However, Peyton Manning is still 2-1. He’s feeling the pressure well enough to avoid an extra 3 or 4 sacks. He’s finding receivers such as Austin Collie and undrafted rookie Blair White for big games. And he’s making the opponent’s pass defense look worse than his team’s and that’s really the key.

2(1). Green Bay Packers 2-1

I wouldn’t be surprised if Chad Clifton is still holding Julius Peppers. Coming into this season I remarked on the fact that this offensive line only gave up 14 sacks in their last 8 games last year and cited that as a big reason why they would win the Super Bowl this year. Rodgers has only been sacked 3 times this year, but this offensive line committed enough penalties to single handedly nullify Rodgers’ 34 for 45 for 316 yards 1 touchdown and 1 pick (on a Hail Mary from mid field to end the half) performance. They’ll need to fix that if they’re going all the way this season.

1(6). Pittsburgh Steelers 3-0

How good are the Steelers? Their first 3 opponents are 6-0 in games not played against the Steelers, and 0-3 against the Steelers. Their first 3 opponents’ quarterbacks are a combined 92 for 147 for 1085 yards 12 touchdowns and 1 pick in games not played against the Steelers and a combined 54 for 85 for 504 yards no touchdowns and 4 picks. Thev’ye held Michael Turner to 48 yards. They’ve held Chris Johnson to 34 yards. They just won a game in which they scored 28 points and had their once 4^th string quarterback start. They are really, really, really, really good, and Ben Roethlisberger isn’t even back yet. If they can mesh quickly when Ben comes back, this is a legit 13-3 team that can run the table once again.

 

Listed in order they should be picked up

WR Brandon Lloyd- Denver

Percent owned (ESPN):  12.8%

Not sure why no one’s picking him up, but for the 3^rd straight game Lloyd has had a strong game, catching 6 balls for 169 yards and a score, and he’s actually now 2^nd in the league in receiving behind (of all people) Austin Collie. He has 339 yards and a score this season and appears to be the Broncos #1 receiver, even with the emergence of rookie Demaryius Thomas.

TE Aaron Hernandez- New England

Percent owned (ESPN): 18.3%

For the 2^nd straight game, Hernandez led the Patriots in receiving yards. Brady loves to spread it around so his production won’t be consistent, but with Kevin Faulk out, the Patriots are going to be looking to their tight ends over the middle of the field more often. Hernandez has proven over the last 2 weeks that he’s a better pass catcher than Rob Gronkowski.

WR Josh Cribbs- Cleveland

Percent owned (ESPN): 12.2%

With Brian Robiskie out with an injury, kick returning extraordinaire Cribbs got the start at wide receiver and caught 5 balls for 58 yards, in addition to his two carries for 20 yards. The Browns are struggling for offense so they would be smart to keep putting the ball in this guy’s hands, whether it be as a receiver, or on an end around, or as a wildcat, in addition to his normally kick returning duties. This means that Cribbs could finally start putting up legitimate fantasy points in league others than ones that count kick returns.

RB Benjarvus Green-Ellis- New England

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.9%

In the wake of Maroney’s trade to Denver, the man with 4 names (Ben, Jarvus, Green, Ellis) is getting a large increase in carries. BJGE will, of course, give carries to all of New England’s other backs and the Patriots love to mix it up in their backfield so he won’t be consistent, but after running for 98 yards on 16 carries week 3, and getting 10 carries before that week 2, BJGE looks like a solid fantasy option, especially if Fred Taylor’s injury is serious.

 

RB Kenneth Darby- St. Louis

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.2%

With Steven Jackson going down early with a groin injury, Darby had 57 yards on 15 touches and a score against Washington. If Jackson’s injury is serious, as speculation suggests it is, Darby would be the lead back in St. Louis.

RB Ryan Torain- Washington

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.2%

With Larry Johnson and Willie Parker gone, Torain is the favorite to get carries behind Clinton Portis/steal Portis’ job when the Broncos realize Portis is ancient. Torain was drafted by Mike Shanahan in Denver and then brought to Washington with him so it’s obvious that Shanahan likes this kid. Torain actually led the team in rushing with 46 yards against the Rams week 3. He could be their lead back soon. He’s worth a pickup in deep leagues and he’s someone to keep your eye on in normal leagues.

RB LeGarrette Blount- Tampa Bay

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.2%

Blount led the Bucs in rushing yards with 27 and in rushing attempts with 6 against Pittsburgh. He also scored a touchdown and got the goal line looks at 6-0 247. Stash him in deep leagues as he could become the new lead man in Tampa soon.

RB John Kuhn- Green Bay

Percent owned (ESPN): 3.8%

Kuhn has led the Packers in rushing yards in each of the last two weeks, with Ryan Grant and James Starks out and Brandon Jackson stinking up the joint. The only problem, his rushing totals over the past two weeks, 36 and 31. The Packers simply don’t run the ball much. They didn’t with Ryan Grant and they certainly don’t when they don’t trust the running game. One of these weeks they may run the ball a lot and Kuhn would be the one to benefit from that most, and Kuhn also gets the goal line carries, which is huge in an offense like Green Bay’s.