WR Mike Thomas- Jacksonville

Percent owned (ESPN): 7.1%

Take away the 50 yard Hail Mary and Thomas still had 7 catches for 79 yards last week against Houston. He has 41 catches for 536 yards and 2 scores and is at least a depth player in all leagues and possibly a flex in PPR.

TE Brandon Pettigrew- Detroit

Percent owned (ESPN): 32.6%

With Shaun Hill back in the lineup, Pettigrew’s stats went back up. He caught 4 passes for 50 yards giving him 36 catches for 380 yards in 6 Shaun Hill starts. Hill looks like the guy at QB the rest of the way as they want to preserve Stafford for next year.

QB Troy Smith- San Francisco

Percent owned (ESPN): 3.1%

Don’t start him yet, but Smith has 552 yards and 2 scores in two starts for San Francisco and looked good against St. Louis’ solid secondary last week with 356 yards on 17 for 28 and a score.

 

RB Mike Goodson- Carolina

Percent owned (ESPN): 5.5%

Apparently Carolina’s 4^th string back is better than their top 3 backs. Goodson had 100 yards on 23 carries in his first career start, something no Carolina RB has done to this point this season and could be valuable down the stretch for Carolina if their injuries at running back don’t clear up or if they decide to go with him as starter/get him more involved in the offense.

WR Anthony Armstrong- Washington

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.2%

The undrafted 27 year old rookie continues to impress with 16 catches for 357 yards and a score in his last 5.

TE Benjamin Watson- Cleveland

Percent owned (ESPN): 29.7%

He continues to impress. After busting in New England, the former 1^st round pick has 36 catches for 434 yards and 2 scores this season in Cleveland.

RB Javarris James- Indianapolis

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.2%

He’s getting the goal line touches in Mike Hart and Joseph Addai’s absence and has 3 scores in his last 2. He only has value in deep leagues and touchdown leagues though and only until Hart and Addai return. James only has 42 yards on 17 carries this season.

 

 

Last week overall: 8-6

Last week ATS: 6-8 (+360/+9%)

Overall picks: 91-53 (.632)

ATS Picks: 72-67-5 (+$1630)

Lock picks: 6-4

Upset picks: 15-18

Sports Betting FAQ 

 

Week 10 recap: I didn’t have a winning record against the spread, but I still made money nonetheless. People who bet the same on each game, didn’t pay attention to my unit suggestions, or were betting in win-loss spread pools aren’t happy with me, but those betting straight bet who followed my suggestion, earned a 9% profit on their original bets. I did this by hitting on all my big picks and losing on all my low picks. Though I was 6-8 on the week, I was 5-1 in bets of 3 or more units, 3-0 in bets of 4 or more units, and 1-7 in bets or two or fewer. I hit with New England (5), Atlanta (4), Detroit (4), Philadelphia (3), and Denver (3) and missed with Minnesota (3). My only other victory was NY Jets (1). In straight picks, not against the spread, I was a decent, but unspectacular 8-6, going 2-2 in upsets and missing my lock pick for the 3^rd straight week. First Denver lost to San Francisco week 8, Indy to Philly week 9, and now the Giants to the Cowboys week 10.

Miami Dolphins 26 Chicago Bears 17

Spread: Miami -1 

Pick against spread: Miami 3 units -330

Tyler Thigpen is expected to start this one for Miami, with Chad Pennington out for the season and likely his career with yet another shoulder injury, and Chad Henne out for at least this week, if not longer with a knee injury.

Thigpen was 230 for 420 for 2608 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 12 picks in 2008 for Kansas City. He also rushed for 386 yards on 62 carries so he is mobile, which will help with left tackle Jake Long likely out.

He did only lead Kansas City to one victory in 12 starts in 2008, a 20-13 victory over Oakland. He struggles to lead consistent drives to the end zone. However, so did Chad Henne. In fact, in 9 games this season, the Dolphins have only 14 offensive touchdowns.

They win games on the strength of their kicking game, defense, and overall dominating field position. Meanwhile, Jay Cutler is on a nice little 2 game winning streak for the Bears, but that’s because Buffalo only has 13 sacks and Minnesota only has 12. The Dolphins have 23, which will force Cutler into bad throws and a few turnovers, which will help the Dolphins play their field position game.

I also expect the Dolphins supporting cast to play at 110% with their backup in the game and the Bears to not play at 100%, overlooking the Dolphins 3^rd string quarterback.

Also, Miami is a +.500 team at home on a Thursday night. +.500 teams at home on a Thursday have lost twice since 2006, and one of those teams were the Lions who were in the middle of a 3 game losing streak and finished that season under .500.

Buffalo Bills 27 Cincinnati Bengals 24 upset pick

Spread: -5 Cincinnati

Pick against spread: Buffalo 3 units +300

A matchup here of two bad teams, 2-7 Bengals and the 1-8 Bills. They Bills, however, are coming off their first victory of the season, albeit a 2 point win over the 2-7 Lions who were playing without their starting quarterback.

However, since 2002, teams who win their first game after starting 0-8 are 3-0 against the spread in their next game. That record could certainly be 4-0 in a week with the Bills facing the 2-7 Bengals as a 5 point underdogs.

I’m not sure the Bills aren’t the better team straight up here. Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing decent, better than Carson Palmer, whose stats are elevated because he’s amazing in garbage time against good teams. He can only play well when his team is so far down that it doesn’t matter anymore. Plus, defensive backs have dropped countless should-be picks of his.

Palmer only put up 20 on Carolina and 20 on Cleveland. Buffalo’s defense isn’t worse than those and their offense is good enough to actually pull out a victory (unlike Carolina). I’m picking the Bills to win straight up, in a close one, and I have 5 points to work with if they lose.

Dallas Cowboys 31 Detroit Lions 27

Spread: -6.5 Dallas

Pick against spread: Detroit 2 units (-220)

Call me crazy, but I don’t think the Cowboys should be almost touchdown favorites after winning one game. I don’t think all their problems are solved, especially defensively where they still struggled to stop anyone and almost let New York back within a touchdown.

Since, teams that finish 6-10 or worse are 19-49 against the spread when favored by 6 or more. I think it’s safe to say the Cowboys won’t win more than 6 games (they’d have to go 5-2 to do that).

The Lions have also only lost by more than a touchdown twice this season, an 8 point loss and a 14 point loss. They play it close and I think Shaun Hill can move the ball and put up points on Dallas’ defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Oakland Raiders 13

Spread: -7.5 Pittsburgh

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh 1 unit (+100)

I have been waiting for Oakland to lose for weeks. After they destroyed Denver week 7, which I predicted, I have been betting against them waiting for them to fall back down to earth. That’s gotten me a loss and a push, but I’m going to bet against them again.

Pittsburgh is still a talented bunch. They looked bad against New England last week, but the Patriots are a very good team. I don’t think the Raiders can come into Heinz Field, across 3 time zones and beat Pittsburgh, who will be trying to avenge a loss to Oakland at home last year.

However, I’m only going with 1 unit because Oakland’s burned me before and might actually be a good team. This week will tell us whether or not they are. Pittsburgh’s also banged up on the offensive and defensive line.

New York Jets 27 Houston Texans 23

Spread: -7 NY Jets

Pick against spread: Houston 2 units (+200)

The Texans are playing badly lately, but their last 2 losses were by a touchdown or less, giving them 7 losses by a touchdown or less in their last 12 losses.

The Jets, meanwhile, aren’t playing well right now, beating Denver by 4 on a late PI call, getting shutout by Green Bay, and needing overtime to beat Detroit and Cleveland in their last 4 games.

This team isn’t playing like a 7-2 team. Houston is more talented than Denver, Detroit, or Cleveland and is simply getting shafted by a tough schedule. I like the Jets to win, but in a close one so I’m going with the Texans and the 7 points.

Baltimore Ravens 31 Carolina Panthers 3 lock pick

Spread: -10.5 Baltimore

Pick against spread: Baltimore 3 units (+300)

Carolina is terrible. They’re going to be on their 3^rd string quarterback this week, with Jimmy Clausen likely out with a concussion. Tony Pike will be making his first career start and against Baltimore. Yikes!

Their running backs are banged up and they’ll be missed 2 starters on their offensive line. They’re also missing Dan Connor on their defense, in addition to Thomas Davis, and they can’t stop the run at all. Tampa Bay ran all over them last week. Imagine what Baltimore can do.

I don’t think this line can be high enough. However, Baltimore does always seem to shoot themselves in the foot and I don’t like double digit spreads, so I’m not putting a ton on Baltimore.

Update: Brian St. Pierre will start for the Panthers. St. Pierre has 5 career attempts, didn’t go through a training camp, and has been a stay at home dad since January. I’ll have more on why John Fox is a douche for making this move in next week’s power rankings, but this line can’t be high enough, especially for a team in the Ravens working on 10 days rest. 3 unit pick.

Cleveland Browns 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 16 upset pick

Spread: Jacksonville -1

Pick against spread: Cleveland 3 units (-330)

Cleveland is playing well right now, but simply getting screwed with their schedule. They have beaten the only sub .500 team they have played and in their last 3 games, they beat New Orleans, New England, and hung with the Jets until a minute left in overtime.

They’re much better than their 3-6 record would indicate and thus should not be underdogs here, even by 1 point. The Jags are 5-4, but they’re not as good as that record would show.

Their 5 wins this season, were against a bad Denver team, a bad Buffalo team, a bad Dallas team, and 2 good divisional foes, both of which were won in the final seconds on a 59 yard field goal and a Hail Mary respectively.

They can beat bad teams and get up for divisional foes, but good teams like San Diego and Philadelphia can crush them. Cleveland is a good team. They’re not as good as San Diego and Philly who beat them by a combined 50, but they can still beat Jacksonville by a good amount. Colt McCoy can take advantage of the Jags’ terrible pass defense and Peyton Hillis can run on them with ease.

 

Tennessee Titans 24 Washington Redskins 20

Spread: -7 Tennessee

Pick against spread: Washington 1 unit (+100)

The Redskins aren’t as bad as they looked on Monday Night Football. This is still at least an average team with an above average quarterback, so I feel like we’re getting good line value with Washington. Michael Vick just absolutely destroyed them.

I like how they fought back and still scored 28 points. In fact, if you take away that first quarter, they would have only lost by 3. Defense is obviously an issue for them. There’s no way around it, but they’re hardly a bad team with a bad offense.

That being said, I like this matchup for Tennessee. With Randy Moss taking men out of the box, Chris Johnson had 117 yards on 17 carries last week. He’ll get more carries this week if the game is closer, something that just wasn’t true last week.

Miami’s offense was clicking on all cylinders, eliminating Tennessee’s strong pass rush with their stronger offense line and picking on Tennessee’s mediocre secondary. Washington’s offensive line isn’t nearly as good and Donovan McNabb isn’t as mobile as he used to be.

This will keep the game closer and allow the Titans to run their way to victory. However, the 7 point spread is ridiculous. The Redskins aren’t 7 points worse than the 5-4 Titans. I’m taking Tennessee to win, but not cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 19 Arizona Cardinals 17

Spread: -9 Arizona 

Pick against spread: Arizona 4 units (-440)

Both of these teams are terrible. The Chiefs do have 5 wins, but they’ve played terrible in the past few weeks, as bad as most people thought they’d be to start the season.

However, they’re still favored by 9 points, which makes no sense to me. Yes, Arizona is worse, but 9 points? I’m not going to pick this Chiefs team to beat anyone by 9 points.

They’ve only beaten two teams by more than 9 this year. The 49ers and the Jaguars with their 3^rd string quarterback and that was before this last 3 week stretch where they needed overtime to beat Buffalo, lost to Oakland, and got destroyed by Denver.

Green Bay Packers 38 Minnesota Vikings 27

Spread: -3 Green Bay

Pick against spread: 2 units Green Bay (+200)

Minnesota hasn’t beaten anyone with more than 2 wins and Green Bay is at its strongest health wise since week 1, coming off a bye. The Packers would like nothing more than to deliver to finally blow to Brett Favre and the Vikings.

They’ve already beaten the Vikings once this season, but they’re a different team now, destroying Dallas and shutting out the Jets since then. This game is in Minnesota, where the Vikings play well, but I can’t see them losing this one.

Atlanta Falcons 34 St. Louis Rams 24

Spread: -3 Atlanta

Pick against spread: Atlanta 3 units (+300)

The Falcons aren’t anywhere near as good on the road as they are at home and the Rams haven’t lost at home since the opener, but I’m still going with the Falcons.

The Falcons are a very good team, deserving of their 7-2 record. They’ve gone into New Orleans and beaten the Saints so they can win on the road in tough conditions.

Both of the Falcons road losses this year were in non-dome settings. The Falcons are used to domes because that’s where they play their home games and, counting road games, are 6-0 in domes this season. The Rams have a dome.

Matt Ryan is the superior quarterback so I’m going with the team with the better quarterback and the better record on 10 days rest against a field goal spread, but I’m not putting a ton on it.

The Rams are very good at home and the Falcons have an exploitable secondary. The Falcons also could be caught looking forward to Green Bay next week. There’s a lot working against Atlanta, but we aren’t getting a lot of line value at all with St. Louis. They’re more than 3 points worse than Atlanta.

New Orleans Saints 28 Seattle Seahawks 24

Spread: -12 New Orleans

Pick against spread: Seattle 4 units (-440)

The Seahawks are a bad road team, but they do have a win in Chicago this year. I’m not going to pick them to go into the Superdome and win. However, they can still put up points on the board. 

Hasselbeck is playing better of late and should get Russell Okung back this week, not like the Saints have the pass rush to take advantage of the Seahawks offensive line problems.

The Saints also should be at full strength with Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas back, but the Saints are notoriously bad against double digit spreads, 2-9 ATS in the Sean Payton era as double digit favorites. Plus, I don’t even think any team should be 12 point favorites against a good team like Seattle.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 San Francisco 49ers 16 Upset pick

Spread: -3 San Francisco 

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay 3 units (+300)

This is weird. The Buccaneers are 6-3. Why are they 3 point underdogs against 3-6 San Francisco? San Fran is playing better under Troy Smith and opposing quarterbacks tend to struggle in San Francisco, where the Niners play well. They’re 2-2 in San Fran, and hung with both the 49ers and the Eagles. They were also 6-2 at home last week.

However, Tampa Bay is a good bad team that can beat bad teams. They haven’t lost to anyone who had a worse record than them so San Francisco qualifies.The teams they’ve lost to are a combined 19-8. Also, that +3 line for Tampa is ridiculous.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 New York Giants 24 

Spread: -3 Philadelphia

Pick against spread: Philadelphia 2 units 

The Giants lost last week because they gave up a ton of big plays. That was how they lost last season, big plays. Now they have to face the kings of big plays, the Philadelphia Eagles. Between Mike Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and LeSean McCoy, this team has no shortage of speed at the skills positions. The Giants defensive line is better equipped to contain Vick, but I can still see their secondary giving up big plays and their offense committing turnovers, which they struggle with, in a Philly victory at home.

New England Patriots 34 Indianapolis Colts 27

Spread: -3 New England 

Pick against spread: New England 2 units (-20)

Normally taking Peyton Manning as an underdog is a good idea, but not against the Patriots. The Pats and Tom Brady have given Manning 2 of his 3 losses in his career as underdogs and the Pats haven’t lost at home with Brady in the regular season in 23 straight.

These are fairly evenly matched teams, but I think New England is better coached and I like them at win at home again. This is definitely going to be a high scoring one. Neither team really has a good defense and the Colts’ injuries at linebackers are really going to hurt them as they try to contain the Pats’ short throw offense and their screen game.

San Diego Chargers 37 Denver Broncos 24

Spread: -10 San Diego 

Pick against spread: San Diego 1 unit 

The Broncos terrible defense is prime to be destroyed by Phillip Rivers and company. The Chargers offense is amazing and the Chargers are on an amazing roll right now, winning 2 straight against good opponents with injuries at receiver.

All their receivers will be back this week and I like the Chargers to beat a double digit spread, albeit as a 1 unit pick. Don’t pay attention to the Broncos 49 last week. They aren’t good offensive team. They struggled in the red zone up to that game and will continue to do so this week against a much stronger San Diego defense. 

 

 

This is the injury report for Thursday’s game only. The rest of the league’s injury report will be posted at its normal time, on Saturday. 

WR Devin Hester- Chicago

Expected to play.

WR Brandon Marshall- Miami

Expected to play. Could see an increase in production with the weaker armed Tyler Thipgen at QB rather than Henne, but it’s not like you can sit him.

QB Chad Henne- Miami

Out for at least this week’s game.

QB Chad Pennington- Miami

Placed on IR.

 

Sunday/Monday Games

 

RB Chris Wells- Arizona

Limited on Friday and officially listed as a game time decision. I wouldn’t start him because he hasn’t done anything this year, but if you absolutely need him, check on his status before his game Sunday at 1.

TE Todd Heap- Baltimore

Heap and his injured chest went through a full practice Friday after taking it easy earlier in the week. He’s probable and expected to play. You want him in your lineup vs. a terrible Carolina squad.

RB CJ Spiller- Buffalo

Out. Not like he ever plays much anyway.

RB DeAngelo Williams- Carolina

On IR and done for the season. Drop him in all non-keepers.

RB Jonathan Stewart- Carolina

Out. Mike Goodson will get his 2^nd straight start, but want find Baltimore as easy of an opponent as he did Tampa Bay, against whom he rushed for 100 yards last week.

QB Carson Palmer- Cincinnati

Put in full practices Thursday and Friday, battling various injuries, including one to his throwing shoulder. However, he’s a decent start in a sure to be shoot out vs. Buffalo.

WR Chad Ochocinco- Cincinnati

Practiced Friday after missing some practice earlier in the week. He’s determined to start through a shoulder problem and is a decent start in a shootout against Buffalo.

RB Cedric Benson- Cincinnati

Despite two full days of practice this week, Thursday and Friday, Benson is still listed as questionable. Sources agree that he is likely to start and if he can’t run on Buffalo’s terrible run defense, he can’t run on anyone.

WR Eddie Royal- Denver

He’s been limited in practice all week and is probably a game time decision for a Monday Night game. He’s a huge risk and as Denver’s #3 receiver, he’s not worth it.

QB Matt Stafford- Detroit

Out.

RB Kevin Smith- Detroit

Placed on IR with a thumb injury. Drop in all leagues, including keepers. Jahvid Best’s value goes up as there is now absolutely no one capable of stealing carries from him.

RB Jahvid Best- Detroit

With Smith out, Best could get 20+ carries for the first time this season against a bad Dallas run defense. He has a toe issue which has been sapped his explosiveness all year, but he is probable this week after taking it easy in practice earlier. He’s someone you can’t sit, especially in PPR. 

WR Calvin Johnson- Detroit

Missed practice Wednesday, but has been fine in practice since and is listed as probable. He’s a definite start.

WR Nate Burleson- Detroit

Added to the injury report with a thigh problem Friday, but will likely still play. He doesn’t have the value with Shaun Hill under center that he did with Matt Stafford and isn’t even worth a start vs. a bad Dallas pass defense.

WR Donald Driver- Green Bay

A game time decision after being severely limited in practice all week and missing his last game. He didn’t have a catch in his last 2 before missing a game. I don’t expect him to play and even if he does, I don’t expect him to do well at all.

TE Owen Daniels- Houston

Out.

WR Andre Johnson- Houston

Expected to play despite taking it easy in practice all week with a knee problem. The knee problem hasn’t kept him from 528 yards and 3 scores in his last 5. He’ll be on Revis Island this week, but it’s not like you can sit him.

QB Matt Schaub- Houston

Expected to start despite the questionable label. Use him as you would normally.

RB Mike Hart- Indianapolis

RB Joseph Addai- Indianapolis

Neither are expected to start again which means Donald Brown and Javarris James will split carries again this week. Brown only has 100 yards in his last 2 starts, but is still a decent flex option. James is the goal line back so he could have some value in touchdown leagues.

WR Reggie Wayne- Indianapolis

Ignore the questionable label. He hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year and he put in two full days of practice this week. He’ll start.

WR Austin Collie- Indianapolis

Still has yet to be cleared, but is being called a game time decision for Sunday’s game. Check back tomorrow morning.

WR Blair White- Indianapolis

Expected to play with a shoulder injury, but only has any fantasy value if Collie is hurt and even then his value is limited to deep leagues. 

WR Mike Sims Walker- Jacksonville

Listed as doubtful. Even if he starts, he’s really inconsistent and is the team’s #2 to Mike Thomas. Look elsewhere this week.

TE Tony Moeaki- Kansas City

Out.

QB Brett Favre- Minnesota

What do you think?

WR Sidney Rice- Minnesota

He’s expected to play, but not start this week. I can’t tell you how many snaps he’ll get, but it’s looking like some for the first time this season. Don’t start him in fantasy quite yet though.

WR Bernard Berrian- Minnesota

He’s a game time decision and he’s not someone you should be relying on with only one game with more than 2 catches this season.

WR Percy Harvin- Minnesota

He’s becoming one of the toughest players in the league and is listed as probable this week after a full practice Friday. All systems go.

QB Tom Brady- New England

He’s probably not even hurt. BB likes to make stuff up.

RB Fred Taylor- New England

Looks likely to play for the first time since week 3, but wait until his role is determined before starting him. Also, that questionable label is a bit troubling. 

RB Pierre Thomas- New Orleans

Out.

RB Reggie Bush- New Orleans

A game time decision for New Orleans, but I wouldn’t start him until I see him do something.

TE Jeremy Shockey- New Orleans

Out.

WR Steve Smith- NY Giants

Out at least two more weeks. Mario Manningham becomes a WR3 option once again.

TE Kevin Boss- NY Giants

Practiced all week and is good to go.

WR Jerricho Cotchery- NY Jets

Out.

TE Zach Miller- Oakland

After being limited all week, he was listed as probable and said he will be in uniform this week. If he was your starter before he missed a game and went on bye, start him. If you found someone who is a suitable replacement in his absence, start him one more week, just until your sure Miller is 100% and back to normal.

WR Hines Ward- Pittsburgh

His concussion symptoms are gone and he’s clear to start against Oakland.

TE Antonio Gates- San Diego

A game time decision. He’s a tough one to decide because he’s so tough and so talented, but his game isn’t until Monday Night. If you can, add Randy McMichael (2 catches for 23 yards and 2 scores in Gates’ absence week 9) just in case. If you can’t spare a roster spot or found a lucrative option on waivers, go to a backup.

WR Malcom Floyd- San Diego

After tweaking his hammy again on Friday, he’s good to go for Monday’s game after practicing Saturday. He does have to face Champ Bailey however, but he’s still worth a start.

WR Legedu Naanee- San Diego

Expected to play, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he missed his 5^th straight. He’s not a lucrative enough player to risk it with so go elsewhere this week.

RB Ryan Mathews- San Diego

Matthews is listed as doubtful for Monday Night’s game. I would be surprised if he plays, so Mike Tolbert becomes a decent flex option.

RB Frank Gore- San Francisco

Probable with a foot injury. No worries here.

QB Matt Hasselbeck- Seattle

He’ll play through an injury to his non-throwing wrist. He won’t do what he did last week against Arizona again, but he’s still a decent QB option.

TE Kellen Winslow- Tampa Bay

Nothing new here. He’ll play through a knee injury as always.

WR Mike Williams- Tampa Bay

He’ll start despite being arrested early Friday morning on suspicion of DUI. Start him.

WR Kenny Britt- Tennessee

Out.

QB Donovan McNabb- Washington

Expected to start again. If he’s your best QB, start him.

RB Ryan Torain- Washington

Out.

RB Clinton Portis- Washington

Expected to play despite the questionable label. Mike Shanahan for years has never used the probable label. 

 

 

 

WR Earl Bennett- Chicago

Percent owned (ESPN): 9.0%

In two games back from injury, Bennett, a preseason stand out and a college teammate of Jay Cutler’s, has had performances of 5/95/1 and 6/81/0. Its clear Jay Cutler is way more comfortable throwing to him than any of Chicago’s other receivers.

WR Laurent Robinson- Dallas

Percent owned (ESPN): 11.7%

Robinson was good in place of Miles Austin earlier this season and he was again this week with a 3/73/2 performance. Austin is not expected back for a few weeks.

WR Vincent Brown- San Diego

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.2%

Brown has stepped in admirably for an injured Malcom Floyd with performances of 4/79/0 and 5/97/1 in two starts. Floyd is not expected to go next week and if Brown keeps this up, it might be the rookie’s starting job permanently in an offense that is always good for fantasy points.

RB Lance Ball- Denver

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.3%

Knowshon Moreno is done for the year. Willis McGahee is questionable on a short week and the Broncos figure to run a ton because they’re running a triple option offense (not even kidding). This week he had 30 carries for 96 yards. He’s not very good (30 carries and his long was 9!), but he’ll get you volume yards this week.

WR Harry Douglas- Atlanta

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.3%

Julio Jones has a hamstring injury. We’ll know more soon. In his absence, Douglas caught 8 passes for 133 yards and a score.

 

WR Greg Little- Cleveland

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.9%

Is this talented rookie finally hitting his stride? Colt McCoy’s favorite target had 6 catches for 84 yards against St. Louis. He has 36 catches for 379 yards this season.

WR Damian Williams- Tennessee

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.6%

Williams is a talented 2^nd year player. Tennessee doesn’t have an established #1 receiver with Kenny Britt out and Williams just had 5 catches for 106 yards and a score against Carolina. He’s worth a flier in deeper leagues.

RB Donald Brown- Indianapolis

Percent owned (ESPN): 7.2%

As long as Joseph Addai is out, Brown looks like the lead back in Indianapolis, for what that’s worth. In his last 3, he has 40 carries for 156 yards and a score, including 14 for 53 this week. He’s not very good and he’s not on a very good offense, but he’s still a starting running back.

RB Chris Ogbonnaya- Cleveland

Percent owned (ESPN): 13.7%

He won’t get to play St. Louis’ miserable run defense every week, but Peyton Hillis and Montario Hardesty can’t stay healthy and Ogbonnaya had 90 yards on 19 carries this week, as well as 2 catches for 19 yards.

 

Week 11 Pickups 

Week 11 Injury Report 

 

11/3/11 8 PM ET

Florida State at Boston College

OLB Nigel Bradham (Florida State) #13

Out of the speedy linebacker factory that is Florida State, the 6-1 240 pound Nigel Bradham has 45 tackles, 4.5 for loss, 2 sacks, 2 pass deflections, and a pick in 8 games this season. He’s a 3 year starter and a very fundamental sound player who looks like a mid rounder.

CB Donnie Fletcher (Boston College) #4

Fletcher’s stock is slipping this season as he hasn’t played well as a senior. However, he was a potential day 2 prospect coming into the season and if he starts playing better, he could be an interesting mid rounder.

10/29/11 12 PM ET (ESPN 3 Replay)

Michigan State at Nebraska

CB Alfonzo Dennard (Nebraska) #15

Dennard came into the year as a first round pick at cornerback, but injuries have hurt him and he’s been exposed without Prince Amukamara opposite him. He’s slipping right now and could end up in the 2nd round or later unless he can have a good game against a pair of potential day 2 picks, wide receiver BJ Cunningham and Quarterback Kirk Cousins throwing to him.

S Trenton Robinson (Michigan State) #39

Robinson had 76 tackles and 4 picks in 2010 and now has 31 tackles, 2 picks, a tackle for loss, a sack and a pass deflection in 7 games this season. In a weak safety class, he could end up in day 2.

 

11/5/11 12 PM ET

Michigan at Iowa

WR Marvin McNutt (Iowa) #7

No Ricky Stanzi, no problem. The 6-4 215 pound McNutt is putting it all together in his senior season with 48 catches for 878 yards and 9 touchdowns in just 8 games. He looks like a day 2 prospect at the moment, but if he keeps this up, he could go higher.

CB Shaun Prater (Iowa) #28

One of two potential day 2 prospects at cornerback for Iowa, Prater has a pick six this season and has done a good job in coverage overall. He had 4 picks with a pick six last season.

10/29/11 3:30 PM ET (ESPN 3 Replay)

West Virginia at Rutgers

WR Mohamed Sanu (Rutgers) #6

The 6-3 215 pound Sanu took over where Kenny Britt left off after Britt went in the first round to the Titans in 2009. Sanu caught 51 passes for 639 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2009 as a freshman. Poor quarterback play in 2010 limited him to 44 catches for 418 yards and 2 scores, but he’s taken his game to a whole different level this year with 65 catches for 683 yards and 6 touchdowns in just 7 games even though his quarterback play still hasn’t been good. He could end up a first round pick like Britt before him. He’ll be matched up with Keith Tandy, a potential mid round pick, in this one.

DE Manny Abreu (Rutgers) #51

Abreu plays end and outside linebacker for Rutgers and at 6-3 260, he looks like a prototypical 4-3 defensive end or 3-4 outside linebacker. In 7 games this season, he has 17 tackles, 4.5 for loss, and 2.5 sacks.

10/29/11 8 PM ET (ESPN 3 Replay)

Wisconsin at Ohio State

WR Nick Toon (Wisconsin) #1

Nick Toon (yes, that’s his real name) caught 54 passes for 805 yards and 4 touchdowns as a sophomore in 2009, but struggled last year with just 36 catches for 459 yards and 3 touchdowns. Now healthy again, Toon has become Russell Wilson’s favorite target this year with 27 catches for 505 yards and 6 touchdowns in 6 games. The son of former Jet Al Toon, Toon has impressed me this season on tape and I’m looking forward to spotlighting him. Before tweaking his foot and not playing against Indiana and then struggling against Michigan State, Toon’s stock had moved all the way into the 2^nd or 3^rd round range. If he can turn things back around, he’ll stay in that range.

RB Dan Herron (Ohio State) #1

After an awesome season in 2010 where the 5-10 205 pound Herron rushed for 1155 yards and 16 touchdowns on 216 carries, Herron was suspended for 6 games to start this season. He played well in his season debut against Illinois, rushing for 114 yards and a score on 23 carries.

11/5/11 8 PM ET

LSU at Alabama

OLB Courtney Upshaw (Alabama) #41

A jack of all traits for Alabama, the 6-2 260 pound Upshaw plays inside and outside at linebacker in Alabama’s 3-4 and could theoretically play both 4-3 linebacker and defensive end (a la Von Miller) at the next level. His best fit is as a 3-4 outside linebacker, where he’ll have an advantage coming from a 3-4 scheme. In 8 games, he has 27 tackles, 11.5 for loss, 4.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and a pick.

C William Vlachos (Alabama) #73

After Ohio State’s Michael Brewster and Wisconsin’s Peter Konz, this is the top center in this class. As the class’ #3 center, he’s probably a late day 2 pick. He’s not the most athletic player, but he’s fundamentally sound and an excellent run blocker, especially in the 2^nd level.

ESPN3 Replays

11/5/11 7 PM ET

Notre Dame at Wake Forest

WR Michael Floyd (Notre Dame) #3

He’ll have to answer for some off the field stuff, but there’s no denying his on the field abilities. In 8 games, he’s caught 63 passes for 788 yards and 5 touchdowns. Last year, he had 79 catches for 1028 yards and 12 touchdowns despite an inconsistent situation at quarterback. Someone is going to take a chance on this athletic 6-3 receiver in the first round.

S Harrison Smith (Notre Dame) #22

A big thumping strong safety, the 6-2 220 Smith has 58 tackles in 8 games this year after 91 tackles last year. He also picked off 7 passes last year, though he has yet to pick one off this year, and broke up 8 passes last year. In a weak safety class, Smith could be one of the first off the board. Mel Kiper loves him.

11/5/11 7:15 PM ET

South Carolina at Arkansas

DE Melvin Ingram (South Carolina) #6

He’s cooled off a bit after a hot start to the season that had many considering him a potential first rounder, but he still has 32 tackles, 9 for a loss, and 5.5 sacks in 8 games this season. He’s also scored 3 times, in weird ways, for what that’s worth. He had 9 sacks last year and he has an awesome motor and should still be a 2^nd or 3^rd rounder. His best position is left end at 6-2 278, but hypothetically he could play 3-4 end depending on his weigh ins pre-draft.

MLB Jerry Franklin (Arkansas) #34

A high character kid and a 4 year starter, Franklin has 337 tackles in his career. This year, he has 68 tackles, 9.5 for a loss, 3 pass deflections, and 0.5 sacks. He had 6.5 sacks last year and plays both inside and outside for Arkansas. He’s best as a middle linebacker at the next level in either a 3-4 or a 4-3 at 6-1 250.

 

32. Buffalo Bills 0-8

Sometimes it’s just meant to be (or not meant to be depending on how you look at it). This team looks like it could go the distance (and by distance I mean, 0-16). They’re just inventing ways to lose now. After losing back to back games in overtime against +.500 teams, they lost to the Bears when Rian Lindell missed his first career extra point in 322 career attempts.

Both the Bears and the Bills had 3 touchdowns and 3 touchdowns only. However, after Lindell, who missed a game winning kick in overtime the week before against Kansas City, missed that extra point, the Bills tried to compensate with a 2 point conversion on their next touchdown, failing. The Bears, on their next touchdown, choose to try to lead by 3 rather than lead by 2, attempting a 2 point conversion and converting it.

If Lindell makes that kick, the Bills don’t try that 2 and the Bears don’t have a chance to go for 2 of their own and this game goes to overtime. Don’t blame Lindell though. This team probably would have lost in overtime anyway. Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t have the arm strength to lead a consistent 2 minute drill type drive for points. Oh and I guess I should congratulate CJ Spiller on tying his career high in carries, 7. Way to use your first round pick.

Speaking of Spiller, check out this comment I got on Twitter.

spiller looking like another draft bust for the bills..they missed on maybin also

Spiller doesn’t look like a bust. He doesn’t look like anything. He’s not playing. He could be better than Best, but I have no idea because Chad Gailey is refusing to use him. Maybin is terrible though. He was recently called the worst player in the NFL and I think that may be true. And yes, I know Jake Delhomme still exists. The Bills should just stop drafting in the first round. It’d safe them some money.

31. Carolina Panthers 1-7

The Panthers used 3 different quarterbacks this week in a 31 point loss at home to the Saints. All 3 of them did terribly. Of course it doesn’t help that they have no offensive line (25 sacks allowed) and their receivers are incredibly inconsistent. David Gettis and Brandon LaFell combined for 216 yards 2 weeks ago against San Francisco. Since then, they have combined for 76 yards in 2 games. Even Steve Smith is showing his age and not looking nearly the receiver he’s been in years past. And that running game that averaged 4.8 YPC last season; it’s averaging 3.6 YPC this year. Everything is just going terrible for them this year.

However, there is good news. Matt Moore’s done for the season. Now, you’re probably wondering why this is good news. He’s their starting quarterback. Well, the only reason he’s their starting quarterback is because he gives them the best chance to win this year and John Fox wants to pad his resume for when he gets fired after the season.

Clausen, however, is the future, or maybe not. Either way, they need to know whether they have something or not with him so they can know whether or not they need to draft a quarterback with their top 3 pick. Clausen has been terrible this season, but he’s faced tough teams in each of his 3 starts. Chicago (1^st in YPA allowed), New Orleans (3^rd in YPA allowed), and Cincinnati (12^th in YPA allowed) all have good if not great pass defenses. A few more starts, more time with the playbook and his receivers, and Clausen could prove to be something. Or he could not, in which case, they’ll probably have a top 3 pick and might be able to land Andrew Luck if they get “luck”y.

30. Dallas Cowboys 1-7

Just one week after declaring that he wouldn’t fire Wade Phillips midseason, Jerry Jones fired Wade Phillips midseason on Monday. I guess a 38 point loss will do that to you. My initial reaction “Wait, he didn’t have blackmail on the owner? Why wasn’t this done years ago?” This firing has to at least approach Matt Millen’s firing as the best move that should have been done years ago.

When Tony Romo went down with an injury, the Cowboys were leading the Giants 20-7. Since then, they have been outscored 114-39. I know losing your quarterback hurts, but their defense has given up 114 points in 10 quarters. They have absolutely thrown in the towel. No respectable coach would let his team throw in the towel like that.

Of course it’s very possible that they all threw in the towel in order to make Jerry Jones fire Phillips, but either way, he had to go. In a post game interview after their embarrassing 45-7 loss to the Packers, Wade Phillips said he didn’t even know who his team was playing next week. I guess it doesn’t matter now though. Phillips isn’t playing anyone this week. I hope the Cowboys hire Jon Gruden to replace him. Mostly just so I don’t have to listen to him on Monday Night Football anymore, but still.

29. Denver Broncos 2-6

Bye.

28. Cincinnati Bengals 2-6

The Bengals have had their chances this season and they’ve put up good fights, but to no avail. They almost completed comebacks against Atlanta and Pittsburgh in garbage time, losing to those two by less than a touchdown after trailing by 3 scores early. After trailing by 4 scores to the Patriots, they cut that lead to 14. Their losses to Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and Miami were by 8 points or less.

However, they just aren’t getting the job done. They’re 2-6 and 4 back in the division. They’ve once again failed to live up to expectations after winning and sweeping the division last season. Failing to live up to expectations seems to be a staple of the Carson Palmer/Marvin Lewis era.

Speaking of the Palmer/Lewis era, I think it’s coming to a close. Palmer is due a ton of money next season and Marvin Lewis is in the last year of his contract. There’s a really good chance neither of them are back next season. They had 7 years and no playoff wins. It’s time for them to start over.

Chad Ochocinco also has a 6 million dollar option for next season. It once appared to be an afterthought that the Bengals would pick that up, but with Ocho catching 40 passes for 473 yards and 2 scores and complaining midgame about being 2nd fiddle to Terrell Owens, that doesn’t look like as much of a sure thing anymore. A new regime might decide it’s not worth the trouble or pick it up and try to trade him elsewhere. The soon to be 33 year old looks like a fraction of his former self with only three games of 45 yards or more this season.

27. San Francisco 49ers 2-6

Bye.

26. Detroit Lions 2-6

The Lions are 5-43 in their last 48 games and are 2-6 this season, despite having a +15 point differential this season. They lost because of a bullshit rule week 1, lost to Philly by 3, Green Bay by 2, and this week they lost to the AFC East leading Jets on a missed extra point. The catch, the extra point was missed by 1^st round pick DEFENSIVE TACKLE Ndamukong Suh, a 307 pound former soccer player. That’s the definition of inventing ways to lose.

Also in this week’s game against the Jets, Matt Stafford landed funny on his previously separated shoulder late in the 4^th quarter. Stafford missed nearly 6 whole games with that separated shoulder earlier this season, essentially killing their season. He had an amazing game in a win over Washington in his first game back, but now he appears out for at least this week’s game against Buffalo, probably more.

With Shaun Hill possibly still out with a broken arm, this means we could see Drew Stanton start against the Bills this week as the Lions try to ensure that the Bills are still in the running for 0-16, thus potentially making the 2008 Lions no longer the only team to never win a game. This is the same Drew Stanton who is 55 for 104 for 611 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 7 picks in his career (49.0 QB rating). Once again, the Football Gods hate the Lions.

25. Arizona Cardinals 3-5

Derek Anderson didn’t look terrible last week against Minnesota, throwing for 179 yards and 1 touchdown on 15 for 26 and more importantly no picks. The Cardinals still lost, but I think that was more the fault of the defense than Anderson, though Anderson did have some overthrows in overtime that could have won them the game.

Still, I’d say the Cardinals have the worst quarterback situation in the NFL. The Panthers’ quarterbacks are playing worse, but they don’t have any good receivers really. The Cardinals have Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston to help out their quarterbacks and their quarterbacks are still 31^st in the league in QB rating, 59.7, only 7 points behind the Panthers. The next closest team, Seattle, 9.2 points away at 68.9.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars 4-4

Bye.

23. Cleveland Browns 3-5

The Browns have won the only game they’ve played this season against a sub .500 team. They hung within a touchdown of Tampa Bay (5-3), Kansas City (5-3), and Baltimore (6-2) and they beat New Orleans and New England by a combined 33 points.

This team is much, much better than their record would suggest and with Colt McCoy looking like the best quarterback the Browns have had since…ever, the future is actually bright in Cleveland. Another strong draft, combined with an easier schedule, and the continued development of McCoy, and this could be a playoff team next year. (Yes, a playoff team).

On another note, Peyton Hillis has been amazing this season. He has 644 yards on 133 carries and 7 scores this season. Note to Josh McDaniels, who traded Hillis for Brady Quinn (remember him) during the offseason: If a football genius like Mike Holmgren calls you up and offers his starting quarterback for your 4^th string running back/2^nd string fullback, you might want to reevaluate that back before sending him away.

22. Seattle Seahawks 4-4

Uhh…why did the Seahawks give up a 3^rd rounder and a swap of 2^nd rounders (the equivalent of a 3^rd rounder) for Charlie Whitehurst again? I thought Pete Carroll was supposed to be smart. When he made that move and gave Whitehurst a ridiculous extension, despite the fact that the former 3^rd rounder had never thrown a pass in the NFL, everyone gave him the benefit of the doubt with talent because he built USC. Apparently not.

The Jesus Christ look alike threw 23 passes, completing 12 of them for 116 yards a touchdown and 2 picks. Those numbers don’t even say everything. Most of that was in garbage time in an embarrassing 34 point loss to the Giants. He led the offense to a mere 162 total yards. In the last 2 weeks, the Seahawks have lost by a combined 64 points, this one possibly even more embarrassing because it came at home, in front of their legendary 12^th man.

Of course I’m going to be fair. I can’t just bash their quarterback. Their defense (74 points allowed) has been terrible. Their run defense, once one of the best in the league, has allowed 395 rushing yards in the past 2 weeks after losing Colin Cole and Red Bryant for the season.

Marshawn Lynch has rushed for 55 yards on 20 carries. So much for him turning around their running game. It looks like it wasn’t just the Buffalo offensive line that was making him look so bad in recent years. He’s just bad.

21. St. Louis Rams 4-4

Bye.

20. Kansas City Chiefs 5-3

Has there ever been an uglier game between teams in first and second in their division week 9 or later than Kansas City/Oakland on Sunday. Jason Campbell was 4 for 10 for 18 yards in the first half…and the Chiefs still lost to the Raiders. The Chiefs had multiple drops in the second half. They had 2 fumbles and gave up a kickoff return touchdown.

Matt Cassel was 20 for 35 for 216 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick, but was really worse than that, unable to lead drives and forcing his team to punt 9 times, including once in overtime on a 3 and out. Jamaal Charles had 664 yards on 103 carries coming into this game and was fresh off gutting the Bills for 177 yards on 22 carries.

Against an Oakland run defense that is one of the worst in the league, all they had to do was run with him. Instead, he got 10 carries for 53 yards, as opposed to 32 yards on 19 carries by Thomas Jones. Todd Haley still is using his lesser players over his best player, Charles. I know the game went into overtime, but there was no reason for Matt Cassel to throw 35 times either.

19. Chicago Bears 5-3

All the Bears problems are solved!!! Jay Cutler was only sacked once!!! Well, maybe, but we won’t know until they face the Vikings next week if they solved their problems during the bye. After all, it was only the Bills. The Bills haven’t won a game this season and they have only 12 sacks in 8 games, 4^th fewest in the NFL. And they still only won by 3 and probably would have needed overtime if that early extra point by Rian Lindell had gone through the uprights.

18. Oakland Raiders 5-4

I waited 3 weeks for the Oakland stinker, the inevitable disappointing performance following a strong win. After outscoring opponents 92-17 in the past 2 weeks, I finally got the stinker last week. The catch, they still won, their first 3 game winning streak since 2002.

In fact, they’re now 5-4 record is their first +.500 record since 2002 and unless they lose out the rest of the way, they’re going to win 6 or more games for the first time since 2002. I would say the fact that the Raiders are finding ways to win even when they play badly is a sign that their catch Kansas City and win the division, but I don’t think it’ll matter. I think San Diego is going to go on one of their patented runs and take this.

17. Minnesota Vikings 3-5

This team was in absolute chaos coming into this week’s game against Arizona. Brad Childress cut Randy Moss (apparently without front office approval) 3 weeks after they traded a 3^rd rounder for him. Chilly’s reason for doing so apparently is that Moss didn’t hustle on one route against New England, Moss threw the coaching staff under the bus and praised Bill Belicheck after his Vikings lost to BB’s Pats (he didn’t say anything that wasn’t true), Moss said he wouldn’t be answering anymore questions for the rest of the season and that he would be asking himself the questions (I’m actually curious to see this), and Moss insulted the team’s cooking.

Chilly was almost fired for cutting Moss and then later in the week, Percy Harvin and Brad Childress got into a heated verbal confrontation, a confrontation that Harvin’s teammates had his backs in, saying, among other things, that Harvin did what everyone there had wanted to do for years. Brad Childress was looking like he wouldn’t have a job after this week, but his job appears to be saved and it’s all because of (who else) Brett Favre.

At 41 years and 28 days old, Brett Favre set a new career high with 446 passing yards against the Arizona Cardinals. Considering every record he has in his career and considering his age, his elbow tendonitis, his double ankle fracture, his lacerated chin, his team’s poor record, that total is very amazing. He just keeps going and going. He’s like the energizer bunny, only with a smaller penis.

 

16. Washington Redskins 4-4

They were on bye this last week, but let me say this. Mike Shanahan benched Donovan McNabb for Rex Grossman (kids reading this at home, Rex Grossman is never, ever the answer) citing McNabb’s durability issues in a 2 minute drill. Then he brought JaMarcus Russell in for a workout, the same JaMarcus Russell who ballooned up to 300 pounds in Oakland last season. How did this guy win 2 Super Bowls again? Oh yeah, John Elway.

15. Miami Dolphins 4-4

I know he’s in his 2^nd year, but Chad Henne seems to be holding this team down. He’s still got time, but he’s got to turn it around fast. This is a talented team all around, but they are only 4-4. Henne has led this team on 11 touchdown drives in 8 games this season. They stink in the red zone (the conservative play calling isn’t helping him though).

Sure Dan Carpenter is a beast, 19-22 on field goals this season (9-12 40+ 10-10 within 39), but when he does miss a field goal, like he did last week, it hurts them and you can’t count on kickers to win you games in the playoffs. Of course, the Dolphins 7 turnovers against Baltimore didn’t help. 5 of those were by Henne (3 picks, 2 fumbles). I know Baltimore’s defense is good, but that’s inexcusable and this really doesn’t look like a playoff team right now.

On a more hilarious note, check out some of these quotes from Channing Crowder in a post game interview about Ravens fullback Le’Ron McClain allegedly spitting in his face. “A guy just spit in my face! I don’t give a damn about Karlos pulling somebody’s facemask. Like they didn’t see Chad Henne get hit twice when he slid. Yeah, a little Stevie Wonder and Anne Frank.”

When asked what he meant by Anne Frank, he responded by saying “Who was that? Is that the blind girl? Helen Keller … I don’t know who the fuck Anne Frank is. I’m mad right now. Fuck it. I’m not as swift as I usually am.”

I actually see the similarility. Helen Keller couldn’t see. Anne Frank couldn’t be seen. The refs didn’t see McClain spit in Crowder’s face. I get it.

14. Houston Texans 4-4

It looks as if the Texans will miss the playoffs once again. They were billed as a sleeper pick because of their 5 losses by less than a touchdown last season. However, everyone seems to have forgotten that they won 5 games by less than a touchdown last season as well.

Their schedule is ridiculously hard this season and after starting 2-0, they are now 4-4 and have their backs up against it. 7 of their next 8 opponents have .500 or better and the only team they face that isn’t is Denver. Going into Denver and winning is no easy task.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-3

The self proclaimed NFC’s best team hasn’t beaten anyone with a winning record. The teams they have beaten have a combined 13-27 record and I’m still convinced that they would lose to St. Louis (who they beat by 1 in Tampa) on a neutral surface. However, their loss to Atlanta by a mere 6 points was a lot better than their losses to the Steelers and the Saints, especially in Atlanta where the Falcons flat out don’t lose when Matt Ryan starts (one career regular season home loss for Ryan in 2 and a half seasons).

However, with the Saints winning easily and the Bucs not owning the tiebreaker with either the Falcons or the Saints, they have a uphill battle to the playoffs, even if they win 9 or so games like this Josh Freeman led squad is capable.

On another note, what was with Raheem Morris giving Cadillac Williams 8 carries? LeGarrette Blount had 120 yards on 22 carries the week before and Cadillac has been running like an Oldsmobile this season with a 2.4 YPC. Yet Oldsmobile Williams stole 8 carries from Blount, who only got 13 and only had 1 carry the entire first half.

Williams turned his 8 into 13 yards, while Blount turned his 13 into 46 yards. Oldsmobile is the better pass catcher, but should only be used on 3^rd down. Why do so many coaches insist on not using their best runner?

12. San Diego Chargers 4-5

After the bye, the Chargers get Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd back from injury. They’re on a 2 game roll right now, looking good in both victories. Philip Rivers is playing like an MVP this season, 215 for 329 for 2944 yards 19 touchdowns and 8 picks and on pace to shatter Dan Marino’s single season passing yards record by over 150 yards.

In their remaining 7 games, they play three teams with winning records, the Colts (who they have dominated in the Peyton Manning era) and the Chiefs and Raiders, who we all know are worse than their combined 10-7 record would suggest. Other than that, they play the 2-6 49ers, the 2-6 Broncos (twice), and the 2-6 Bengals. This team could very realistically finish the season with 10 wins, and I would be very surprised if they didn’t finish with at least 9.

11. Tennessee Titans 5-3

Bye.

10. Philadelphia Eagles 5-3

I went on the record earlier this season saying that Vick was comparable in talent to Kevin Kolb. After last week’s win over Indy, I’m taking that back. The Vick of old was comparable in talent to Kolb. However, for whatever reason, Vick looks like a better quarterback post-jail than pre-jail.

I don’t know what it is, but his arm is stronger, he’s faster (if you can believe it), he’s making better decisions with the football. I think the decision making is actually the most shocking thing. He looked great in his first two games, but those were against the Lions and the Jaguars.

This week, he ripped up the Colts defense and more importantly, kept the ball out of Peyton Manning’s hands. That’s the only way to beat Manning and he did it. There isn’t a ton of talent in the NFC right now, so this could be a sleeper Super Bowl team.

9. New York Jets 6-2

In the last 4 weeks, they’ve needed a PI call to beat Denver, had their bye, lost to Green Bay, getting shutout in the process, and needed a missed extra point to beat Detroit. Yeah, they’re 6-2 and technically in first in their division and tied for best record in the NFL. But they don’t look like an elite team at all. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cleveland beat them next week.

Also, I’d just like to point out that if Santonio Holmes had ran in a straight line to the goal line instead of zigzagging a bit (the quickest way between two points is a straight line Santonio), the Jets would have won by 6 and covered and I would have won that pick. Of course I can’t complain when my first ever 6 unit pick got a backdoor cover, beating the spread by 1 (more on that later).

8. Baltimore Ravens 6-2

The Ravens won last week, but I’m not sold on them yet. They still shoot themselves in the foot too much and their defense is not what it used to be, even since they got Ed Reed back from injury. Joe Flacco is a good quarterback, but he struggles in games when his running game can’t find room. I don’t think Flacco can win a Super Bowl just yet.

7. New Orleans Saints 6-3

The Saints just won by 31 after beating the Steelers by 10 and now head into their bye. After their bye, they should get both Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush back, helping their terrible red zone offense. They should also get key defensive players back to 100%. This bye week is at the perfect time for this banged up team.

After their bye, they face Seattle on the road, the Cowboys, the Bengals, the Rams on the road, the Ravens in Baltimore, the Falcons in Atlanta, and the Bucs. This team could easily be 11-5 going into the playoffs and if they win a tough road game in Baltimore or Atlanta, they could be 12-4 and on a roll into the playoffs. That’s going to be a scary opponent for an NFC playoff team.

6. Green Bay Packers 6-3

At the beginning of the season, I had them as my Super Bowl team citing Aaron Rodgers’ development and the fact that I felt they had the most talented supporting cast in the NFL. They faced some early injury problems, but they are now 6-3 going into the bye riding a 45-7 win over Dallas. They have the bye to get healthy and if they put everything together, there’s still time for them to go on a run and make my Super Bowl prediction come true.

Also, I think Clay Matthews is officially the scariest player in the NFL. Ever since Troy Polamalu started doing those, however hilarious, shampoo commericials, he’s seemed slightly more human, more down to earth. Matthews is a 250 pound quarterback killing machine and he’s nimble enough to return a pick for a long touchdown like week against Dallas, with his crazy, seemingly never washed hair flowing in the air. In fact, I think his hair is scarier than several players in the NFL. In fact, if his hair were an NFL player, it would probably have at least 5 sacks right now.

5. New York Giants 6-2

They’d be higher if they didn’t have such a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot. That obviously wasn’t a problem last week in their destruction of Seattle, but it had been up to that point. They do everything well, except take care of the football.

They rank 4^th against the pass, 3^rd against the run, 6^th in run offense, and 4^th in pass offense (all rankings based on YPA/YPC). However, they have the 3^rd most turnovers in the NFL, 22. The only teams that have more are Carolina and Arizona.

4. Atlanta Falcons 6-2

I think the Falcons have more to gain from homefield advantage than any team in the NFC and maybe the league (though the Pats and their 23 straight at home with Brady could give them a run for their money in that debate). Matt Ryan has lost 1 career regular season game at home.

I know the playoffs are a different animal, but Ryan seems to love the energy of playing big games at home and I think they can ride that to the Super Bowl in a wide open NFC. Standing between them and homefield is a tough schedule.

They have to face Baltimore, go to St. Louis, Green Bay, go to Tampa Bay, go to Carolina, go to Seattle, and then New Orleans and Carolina at home to finish the season. Also standing between them and homefield, their 29^th ranked pass defense.

3. New England Patriots 6-2

I think last week’s loss to the Browns had some cause for concern, but was more of a bump in the road than anything. The Pats are a young team and were caught looking forward to the Steelers and Colts in the next two weeks and overlooked the Browns, who have had the 2^nd toughest schedule in the NFL so far and were fresh off beating the Saints in the Superdome.

The Patriots still have conference games against the Steelers, Colts, Jets, and a non-conference game against the Packers on their schedule. We’ll know a lot more about them after those games, but I’m not too worried about where they are as a team right now. They’re still tied for best record in the league.

Sticking with the theme of extra points, I’d like to comment on Wes Welker kicking the extra point and the subsequent kickoff last week. He looked good kicking that extra point. The kickoff, not so much, but the extra point looked good. I say they use him in that role for often. Imagine it, what’s he going to do, kick or run, or, dare I say it, pass.

It would be like the wildcat, but insane. I think the potential of that is the best extra point story of the week over Rian Lindell missing his first extra point in 232 tries and costing the Bills the game and Ndamukong Suh kicking his first career extra point and missing it, costing the Lions the game. Who would have though extra points would ever be such a riveting topic in the NFL. 

2. Indianapolis Colts 5-3

I made my first ever 6 unit pick last week, betting the underdog Colts +3 over the Eagles. I figured, Peyton Manning has destroyed the Eagles in the past, Peyton Manning can tear apart the Eagles weak secondary and his impeccable timing could nullify their pass rush, and that Mike Vick wasn’t a good enough throwing to keep up.

However, Vick did a great job of keeping the ball out of Peyton Manning’s hands and the Colts defense, which already was missing a starting linebacker, lost two more starting linebackers midgame, making it even tougher for them to stop Vick and get Peyton the ball back. Peyton played well, but almost lost the cover.

If it wasn’t for the fact that the back of Manning’s helmet was touched on a 4^th down fail late in the 4^th quarter, the Eagles would have won by 9, but that penalty gave the Colts new life in route to a 2 point Colts loss and cover. Phew! That cover wasn’t the only reason I loved watching the Colts/Eagles game. The other was this clip that was shown during the game of Andy “Ried” at age 13. Yes, 13.

Everything about that video was amazing. The fact that Andy Reid was about two times bigger than every other kid in the contest (I seriously thought that was him now competing against a few kids), the fact that they spelled him name Ried (whose name is Ried), everything.

The reason the Colts are #2 with 3 losses, moving up a spot after that loss, the Pats lost, meaning that there were no more 1 loss teams in the NFL. The Colts are a mere game back of the best record in the NFL and with Peyton Manning’s experience, that makes them a scary opponent going towards the end of the season.

 I’m sure they’ll still somehow pull 12-4 out of their asses once again, especially once their defense gets healthy again and because they won’t be able to rest their starters down the stretch, they’ll be at game speed going into the playoffs, as they were the one year they won the whole thing.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers 6-2

The Steelers move up to #1, but they’re hardly a perfect team. Their offensive line is really hurting right now, the defense hasn’t been the same since Big Ben came back, and they almost blew a 20 point lead against Cincinnati last week.

Blowing leads was their thing last year and they did that en route to a 5 game losing streak that forced them to sit home for the playoffs. They were sitting pretty and on top of the world last season when that streak hit. They need to avoid one this year.

However, they’re still #1 this week because they’re the most complete team in the NFL. Bad news for Steelers fans though, teams ranked #1 in my Power Rankings are 4-4 the following week. It’s just been that kind of season.

The Steelers have Tom Brady and the Pats coming to their place after they lost to the Browns. They already lost to one team coming that was coming off a loss to the Browns. In fact, both of their losses have come to teams that had just faced the Browns. Just saying. Also, Tom Brady has only lost back-to-back games once since 2003. That I’m not just saying.

Speaking of the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger, I have my second hillarious video of the week to show you, this embarrassing moment by ESPN’s Chris McKendry. Enjoy.

Shoulda had a V8. 

Like the Andy Ried clip, this Ben Roethliscockberger clip is pure perfection. Whether it be the lead up “get low, get penetration, inches, take ’em up high, get down low” or the actually slip (how do you make that mistake?), pure comedy gold.

On a final unrelated note, I want to comment on ESPN letting go to Sunday Night Baseball team of Joe Morgan and Jon Miller after 21 years. Those were the only 2 good announcers ESPN has left. I don’t understand this network. They employ Jon Gruden, who never has anything bad to say about anyone. They employ Steve Young, who says…I don’t even know. I have no idea what he’s talking about half the time. They employ Matt Millen who is…Matt Millen. They employ Keyshawn Johnson, who never has anything insightful to say and occasionally has issues forming sentences. But Jon Miller and Joe Morgan, two excellent baseball guys, no. They don’t employ them anymore.