Year: 2012

Vikings 2010 Recap

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In hindsight, maybe we shouldn’t have been expecting great things out of a team that had to drag their 40 year old starting quarterback out of Mississippi in mid-August. Favre followed his career best season in 2009 with one of, if not the worst season of his career. Favre completed a mere 61% (down 7% from 2009) for 7.0 YPA (down .9 from 2009) and had 11 touchdowns (as opposed to 33 in 2009) and 19 picks (as opposed to 7 in 2009). His turnovers alone cost this team at least one win this season, if not more.

Favre also dealt with injuries. He came in from Mississippi with a surgically repaired ankle from the 2009 playoffs. He also dealt with elbow tendonitis, shoulder soreness, reinjured his ankle, needed stitches on his chin, and eventually had to miss a game because of an AC joint sprain in his shoulder. About the absence, which broke his 297 straight starts straight, Favre said “it’s tough to throw a football when you can’t feel your hand. His offensive line simply couldn’t keep him upright this year, proving that they were more overrated than anything else (big names, big guys, mediocre production.)

In addition to the injuries, Favre dealt with an off the field saga with Jenn Sterger. Sterger accused Favre of sending unwanted pictures of his penis to her when she was a sideline reporter (with large breasts) for the New York Jets in 2008. Pictures of Favre’s 4 inch penis surfaced on the internet and then all of sudden, you could add an injured ego to Favre’s list of injuries.

You can’t blame this whole season on Favre. After an 0-2 start, this team simply stopped trying hard for Brad Childress. In fact, Favre was one of the few still playing his heart out for the team. Chilly was fired after a week 11 loss that sunk the team’s record to 3-7 and the team immediately won 2 straight for interim coach Leslie Frazier.

However, that didn’t last. Before a week 14 game with the Giants, the roof of the Metrodome collapsed from so much snow and the game had to be moved to Detroit. This game also coincided with Favre sitting for the first time in over 18 years. A homeless Vikings team lost to the Giants 21-3 in Detroit that week and then went on the lose 40-14 the next week to the Bears at “home” on the University of Minnesota’s TCF Bank Stadium. Favre started the game again, but went down with a concussion after his head hit the frozen turf, which had been described by Vikings punter Chris Kluwe as unplayable.

The Vikings finished 6-10. They will start completely anew next season. Favre won’t be back, even if he does decide to play again. Interim Coach Leslie Frazier is now coach Leslie Frazier. The Vikings will likely use their 12th overall pick on a quarterback. They will hope to get back into the Metrodome next season, though another year in TCF might be in their future. 

 

Vick Ballard Scout

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Running Back

Mississippi State

5-10 219

Draft board overall prospect rank: #109

Draft board overall running back rank: #8

Overall rating: 65 (3rd/4th round)

40 time: 4.63

Games watched: LSU/Mississippi State, Mississippi State/Wake Forest

Positives

·         Powerful runner

·         Good size (5-10 219)

·         Great north/south runner

·         Runs well between the tackles

·         Explosive to the hole

·         Powerful lower body

·         Tough to tackle

·         Good pad level

·         2 year starter

·         Productive in tough conference (2010: 186 carries for 968 yards and 19 touchdowns, 2011: 193 carries for 1189 yards and 10 touchdowns)

·         Succeeded with little supporting cast

·         Improved pass catcher (20 catches as a senior)

·         Great work ethic (not highly recruited, went to JuCo, turned into Mississippi State’s leading rusher)

·         Good pass protector

Negatives

·         Poor 40 time (4.63)

·         Not a good outside runner

·         Doesn’t have breakaway speed

·         Not quick

·         Doesn’t break a lot of tackles in space

·         Never carried a big load

·         Not a good natural athlete

·         Pass catching still could improve (wouldn’t trust on 3rd down right away)

·         Durability?

·         Ball security?

·         Struggled against Alabama and LSU (who didn’t?)

NFL Comparison: Daniel Thomas

Vick Ballard reminds me of Daniel Thomas. Thomas was a 2nd round pick last year after 2 years as a starter at Kansas State. Like Ballard, he’s a former JuCo player. Both are powerful backs without a ton of speed or mobility. Thomas ran a 4.60 at 6-1 228. Ballard ran a 4.63 at 5-11 218. Both are also solid pass catchers with some fumble problems. They have very similar running styles.

I thought Thomas was a bit overdrafted in the 2nd round last year. Ballard will probably be a 5th round pick or so and I think he’ll be a little underdrafted. He can be a solid tandem back at the next level, which is what Thomas became as a rookie in Miami with Reggie Bush. That appears to be his best role going forward, rather than a 3 down back, which is what you’re typically looking for in the 2nd round. I have a borderline 3rd/4th grade on him and I think he’ll make some team very happy in the mid to late rounds. He’s an underrated back who put up good numbers on a poor team against tough competition in the SEC.

 

Vernon Gholston Bears

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No financials for this deal have been released, but I’m guessing the Bears got him very cheap. Gholston is definitely a bust. In fact, with no sacks in 3 seasons after being drafted 6th overall, he might be one of the biggest busts of the last decade. However, he’s still only 25 and now he’s going back to a 4-3 scheme, the one that he dominated in at Ohio State, and he gets to work with Rod Marinelli, an excellent defensive line coach. They could get something out of him. If not, they didn’t spend much. This is a low risk, high reward signing for them.

Grade: A

 

USC/Stanford

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Spotlight #1: Stanford OT Jonathan Martin

Spotlight #2: Stanford OLB Chase Thomas 

1st

11:18: Jonathan Martin blown right past by USC’s Nick Perry, allows the pressure, forces Andrew Luck to scramble (not like it mattered to Luck). I’m interested in this matchup. Martin hasn’t been tested much this year. Perry has 4 sacks and 6 tackles for loss this season. He had a down year as a sophomore, but remember, he had 9 sacks as a freshman in 2009.

10:14: Martin stays with Perry’s spin move. Nice job. Much better this time.

8:38: Tyler up the middle for 3, has to leave with an injury. I’ll be watching Stanford linebacker #44 Chase Thomas in the mean time.

5:11: Thomas with a tackle for loss on Robert Woods, who took the pitch out of the backfield.

4:02: Thomas misses a tackle, too much acceleration.

3:30: Thomas with his hand in the dirt against Matt Kalil. He didn’t stand a chance.

2:03: Thomas gets pressure on Barkley.

1:02: Thomas covers a tight end short very well.

2nd

11:34: Martin struggling again a bit with Nick Perry, who gets a pressure, but he was asked to block for a long time. This could be considered a coverage pressure, but Luck had to step up and run to evade it.

10:40: Thomas with a pressure on a blitz.

9:41: Barkley throws a bad pick, doesn’t see the linebacker.

9:25: Martin doing what he does best, run blocking. 5 yard run through his side with a great block by Martin. He’ll have to prove he’s more than a right tackle at the next level. Perry is beating him too frequently tonight.

7:54: Luck with his 2nd delay of game penalty of the night.

7:21: Perry beats Martin again and forces Andrew Luck to flee the pocket.

7:15: Martin allows another pressure. He’s having a poor game. This time he wasn’t even on Perry. Luck has struggled a bit on his last few drives with the pressure that Martin is allowing.

6:28: Thomas pancaked by Matt Kalil. There’s no way he’s winning that matchup.

5:05: Thomas on Kalil again. No chance. That’s his problem. He’s an awesome 3-4 outside linebacker at this level, but at 239 pounds, I don’t know he’s big enough to play the position in the pros. This is his first game against an NFL caliber left tackle. He might be a 4-3 outside linebacker purely.

1:33: Thomas in on a big tackle for loss on the ball carrier after a recovered botched handoff.

0:55: Chase Thomas against Matt Kalil again, trying to beat him with his quickness, tries a spin move, goes nowhere.

 

3rd

13:54: Thomas completely pushed off the play by Matt Kalil on a huge touchdown run by USC.

12:09: Jonathan Martin leaves with an injury. In the mean time, I’ll be watching Stanford tight end #82 Coby Fleener in the meantime.

10:31: Matt Kalil plows open a long touchdown for the 2nd time tonight.

9:39: Martin is back. He didn’t miss a play.

8:33: Martin allows another pressure from Perry, who forces Andrew Luck to move and throw. Since starting 5-5, Luck is 6-11 thanks to a ton of pressure. If he’s as good as everyone says he is, he’s going to find a way to win this game down 20-10.

6:34: Luck must have heard me. Touchdown.

5:47: Chase Thomas gets pressure.

2:11: Nick Perry tackles Luck just short on 3rd down after a scramble up the middle.

1:22: Luck with another touchdown, this time a run, 24-20 Stanford.

4th

12:18: Martin struggles again with Nick Perry. He hasn’t been all bad tonight, but he hasn’t looked like a top 10 pick.

11:11: Martin allows Perry to hit Luck as he threw.

9:25: Luck sacked for the 2nd time tonight, 4th time all year. Perry in on the tackle with another defender. This was more of a coverage sack.

7:55: Thomas in on a tackle for little to no gain.

5:03: Thomas matched up with Kalil again, Kalil just pushes him off easily. I think Thomas has been matched up with Kalil on 10-15 snaps tonight. I don’t think he’s won one.

3:08: Holy crap Andrew Luck might have just thrown the game winning touchdown to the wrong team, pick six.

2:16: TJ McDonald, known for his personal fouls, with one here after USC stopped Stanford on 3rd and 6.

2:10: Martin on Perry again, Perry forces Luck out of the pocket again.

0:51: Martin struggling a bit with Perry again. Martin just doesn’t look very athletic out there.

0:38: Luck leads another touchdown drive to tie it. He hasn’t been perfect tonight, but he’s done a very good job of not letting his mistakes affect him.

Overtime

OT- Martin with a nice run block. He’s had a good day run blocking, but he’s had trouble with Perry’s quick in pass protection.

3OT- Martin allows another pressure.

0:00: This game was a favorite of NFL scouts because it had 4 potential top 5 picks, the two quarterbacks Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley, and the two left tackles, Matt Kalil and Jonathan Martin. Of those 4, Martin was easily the least impressive and someone I was spotlighting in this game. Martin has played very well to this point in the season as part of Stanford’s awesome run blocking line and also helping Andrew Luck take only 2 sacks all season.

Luck took 2 sacks in this game alone. Martin was only responsible for .5 at most, but he still had a lot of trouble with USC defensive end Nick Perry, a quick, athletic defensive end. Andrew Luck has amazing pocket presence and was able to scramble away from a lot of Perry’s pressures. Martin hadn’t really played anyone of note to this point in the season so it definitely hurts his stock to see him struggle with someone like Perry, who isn’t an elite defensive end prospect, though this game definitely helps his stock. Martin has an uphill battle now to prove he’s athletic enough to stay on the left side in the pros and that he’s not just a run blocking right tackle. If he can’t do that, he’ll slip out of the top 10 picks.

As for Perry, he’s no slouch of a defensive end prospect. He was viewed as a potential future first rounder after 9 sacks as a freshman in 2009, but he managed just 4 sacks in a disappointing season as a sophomore in 2010 as came into this season as a mid rounder at best. He’s had 4 sacks already this season and though he didn’t have a sack in this game, he showed great speed and quickness and a wide repertoire of pass rushing moves against a left tackle that no one had had any success against to this point in the season. At 6-3 250, he’s a little undersized, but he runs a 40 in the 4.5-4.6s and could end up a day 2 pick if he continues to impress.

Now onto Andrew Luck, I mentioned his awesome pocket presence, but this was really the first game Andrew Luck really faced any adversity this season. Stanford had won a record 10 straight by 25 points or more and Luck had been sacked just 7 times in a year in a half coming into the game. He went down twice tonight, but easily could have gone down 4 or 5 times with the way USC was getting after the quarterback. Luck did an awesome job of scrambles for some gains and throwing on the run with pressure breathing down his back.

All in all, Luck was 29 for 40 for 330 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a pick, very impressive considering his offensive line wasn’t helping him out a lot and his running game only average 3.9 yards per carry, a rarity for this Stanford running game. The one pick was ugly, a pick six late in a tied game, but Luck showed great mental toughness to come back, lead a game winning drive and eventually win it in triple overtime after that pick. We all know the abilities that Luck has, but we haven’t really seen him face any adversity. Tonight he did, proving he can win ugly too. He’s not perfect, but he’s very, very good and he’s proven that he can handle not being perfect and still win when things go wrong.

While Jonathan Martin struggled, his counterpart USC left tackle Matt Kalil was awesome once again, proving why many see him as the best pro prospect other than Andrew Luck. Kalil didn’t make anything even close to a mistake, penalty, sack, tackle for loss allowed, big quarterback pressure, all night. He paved the way for 2 long USC runs and kept Matt Barkley’s blindside protected all night. He was matched up with Stanford rush linebacker Chase Thomas on roughly 15 plays in this game and he didn’t lose a single one and Thomas is no slouch. He’s considered a potential day 2 pick as a 3-4 or a 4-3 outside linebacker.

Speaking of Thomas, I spotlighted him as Marc Tyler went down with an injury on the first play of the game. Tyler, who has had injuries problems throughout his career, is going to have a tough time shaking the “injury prone” label as a draft prospect. He hasn’t put up great stats either and he might have lost his starting job, even if healthy, as backup Curtis McNeal looked awesome in his absence. Tyler might end up going undrafted.

Now onto Thomas, the 239 pound rush linebacker looked very small. He’s undersized for a rush linebacker and though he has 5.5 sacks on the season, he hadn’t really faced an NFL caliber left tackle to this point in the season. He definitely did tonight in Kalil and he looks like he’ll struggle getting off blocks against left tackles at the next level.

He might just be a 4-3 outside linebacker with strong blitzing ability, rather than someone who can match up with left tackles, either with his hand in the ground or as a rush linebacker. He’s undersized and doesn’t have the quickness to make up for it. He’s still a solid player, but if he can’t play 3-4 rush linebacker, he’ll have a hard time staying in day 2.

Finally, we go to Matt Barkley, the other quarterback in this game. Barkley was 28 for 45 for 284 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 pick. He had way more help in terms of his offensive line (he wasn’t sacked) and his running back (two long touchdown runs by Curtis McNeal) and he still lost and put up inferior stats than Luck, who was facing a better defense. Barkley isn’t bad or anything, but he’s not Andrew Luck. This game is probably going to be neutral for his stock as he remains a top 10 pick as potentially the #2 quarterback off the board, though Landry Jones and Robert Griffin might have something to say about that.

 

USC/Oregon

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Spotlight #1: USC DE Nick Perry

Spotlight #2: USC RB Marc Tyler 

1st quarter

10:01: Josh Kaddu with a tackle for a loss on a pass in the flat.

9:04: Tyler catches a screen for 7. It’s worth noting he wasn’t on the field until this point. Curtis McNeal got the start for the 2nd week in a row and it looks like he’ll be the lead back from here on out. That does hurt Tyler’s draft stock as he tries to get drafted.

7:18: Perry blows past his man, slaps the ball out of the quarterback’s hands, recovered by Oregon for a loss. This is as good as a sack, but won’t count as a sack, which would have given him 8.5 on the year.

6:37: Matt Barkley makes a definite NFL caliber throw deep to hit Marquis Lee basically on the fly for a 59 yard touchdown. The throw had to be at least 50+ yards on the fly, tight spiral, accurate, highlight reel throw.

1:56: Tyler with his first carry of the night, right up the middle to convert for a 1st down on short.

1:10: Barkley with another one of those NFL caliber throws, a frozen rope to Robert Woods for 24. He put it in the perfect spot and threw it over a defender, hitting the receiver on the money.

2nd quarter

13:04: Perry run at, not much happening, 2-3 yards.

8:56: Tyler with a run for a few through a hole.

6:55: Just a note, Oregon is running a lot of their plays away from Perry, especially on the ground. Also, the run/pass ratio right now is 17 runs to 7 passes. That’s why Perry isn’t having a huge impact.

6:34: Perry gets in on a tackle in space after a run up the middle, but not before Oregon converts 3rd and 2.

4:37: Tyler gets a 3rd down conversion on 3rd and 3, right up the middle against a stacked box for 5 or 6 yards.

3:01: Tyler on 2nd and goal, multiple guys get penetration into the backfield and bring him down for a loss.

1:42: Perry breaks through a double team, gets pressure.

1:18: Perry in on a tackle for a short gain. After two guys immobilize the ball carrier, Perry finishes him off.

0:23: LaMichael James looks to have reinjured his elbow. An injury red flag is the last thing his draft stock needs.

 

3rd quarter

14:26: Perry in on a tackle for loss.

12:56: Barkley fumbles the snap, recovers it, but then makes a really ill-advised throw that almost got picked in the red zone. This was his first mistake of the night however. He’s at 15 of 20 for 181 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no picks tonight as USC leads #4 Oregon 21-7 and is threatening for more.

9:55: Barkley with another amazing throw, hitting Marqise Lee, who is having an awesome day, for 41 yards on the fly against double coverage. Lee has 4 catches for 146 yards on the night as a true freshman.

9:27: Marc Tyler on the goal line for a 3 yard touchdown run. He’s been impressive at getting tough yards, but he’s still only being used sparingly, with 5 carries for 13 yards and that touchdown. He’s also caught a 7 yard pass.

6:41: Tyler with a nice run for a few on 1st down, 6 yards.

5:26: Tyler showing great explosion through the hole, good pad level, good power, and good explosion for 9 yards in between the tackles on 1st down.

4:16: McNeal looks like he’s hurt. This could be Tyler’s shot.

1:50: Tyler between the tackles again for 7. McNeal is back in the game though.

0:28: Tyler converts 3rd and 1 with a gain of 3 or 4 in between the tackles, but has it called back by an irrelevant illegal shift penalty on the outside.

4th quarter

14:28: Perry can’t change directions quickly to keep up with the speedy back.

11:44: Tyler converts 2nd and 1 with a few yards.

8:32: Barkley throws one high, receiver can’t bring it in, off his hands and picked. The receiver could have caught it and there was defensive holding on the play, but it will go down as an interception.

7:11: David Paulson with an awesome catch against double coverage, almost a touchdown.

3:36: Tyler with a nice run to convert 3rd and 4 through the middle between the tackles, looks like 6-7 yards.

2:31: Tyler with a key fumble in the red zone in a 38-35 USC game. Tyler didn’t take the handoff properly and the handoff is fumbled. Oregon ball. Bad mistake.

1:50: Perry has been quiet for a bit, but not anymore. A huge, clutch sack for his 2nd of the night.

1:28: Perry gets pressure, but the quarterback gets it out in time for a good gain on a screen.

0:00: Nick Perry was a rising prospect coming into this game and he showed way. Perry had 4 tackles, a sack, 2 tackles for loss, and a forced fumble that was essentially a 2nd sack. Even more impressive, he was doing this against Oregon, who had only allowed 7 sacks to Darron Thomas coming in. They don’t have a particularly talented offensive line, but they move so quickly and get rid of the ball so quickly that pass rushers have had a tough time of getting to the quarterback.

Perry was winning his matchup consistently, matched up for almost the entirety of the game against Oregon’s left tackle. That type of thing won’t show up on the stat sheet because Oregon releases the ball so quickly, but it’s worth noting he was consistently winning his matchup with a quick first step, though Oregon doesn’t necessarily have the most talented offensive line. It’s also worth noting that Perry saw his fair share of double times

Oregon also ran a lot, running 47 times to 35 pass and they were consistently running plays away from Perry, though I’m not sure if that was intentional or not. Thomas also rolled out away from Perry quite a bit. Oregon did well on the ground, rushing for 209 total yards on 47 carries. Perry didn’t have a very big impact against the run. He wasn’t necessarily being blown off the line, but he had trouble with Oregon’s speed and explosiveness. This limited his tackle total and his overall impact against the run.

Perry now has 51 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and 2 pass deflections in 11 games for USC. After a disappointing sophomore year, following a freshman year in which he had 9 sacks, Perry has picked things up as a junior and has become one of college football’s best pass rushers. At 6-3 250, he might be solely a 3-4 outside linebacker at the next level, but he has 4.5/4.6 speed, a great first speed, and he has become very productive this season. He also did a great job against Stanford’s Jonathan Martin, a projected top 15 pick at left tackle. Should he declare this year, he could go in the late 1st round or maybe the early 2nd round. If he comes back for his senior season and has a good senior year, he could go top 15.

As I said earlier, Oregon ran for 209 yards on 47 carries. Surprisingly, LaMichael James was not the biggest part of that. James didn’t have a bad day, but 78 yards on 20 carries is not a typical performance from him, especially since his longest carry of the night for 9 yards. He really just didn’t get going as USC played with great discipline. James has struggled against disciplined defenses before and if he can’t get space, he typically doesn’t have a very good game at all.

Also hurting James’ stock is that Kenjon Barner had 123 yards on 15 carries tonight. Barner, a 5-11 180 pound junior has had 766 yards and 10 touchdowns on 112 carries this season, which might cause some to wonder if LaMichael James is just the product of Oregon’s system. For me, there are too many concerns about how he will transition to the NFL (size, inability to stay healthy, inability to have good games against disciplined defenses, the product of a weird offense that wouldn’t work in the NFL) for me to have him above the 3rd/4th round. He could be a nice change of pace guy, but nothing more.

James’ counterpart at running back was Marc Tyler. Well, I don’t know if he was necessarily James’ counterpart. He didn’t start for the 2nd straight game. After missing two games with injury, Tyler appears to have lost his starting job to Curtis McNeal, a speedier, smaller back at 5-7 180. After 7 carries last week, Tyler got 12 this week, as opposed to 19 for McNeal.

Tyler still ran well. 11 of his 12 carries were for positive yardage and his one tackle for loss was not really his fault. Oregon just got great penetration with multiple defenders on that play. He ran between the tackles very well, picking up gains of 3, 4, 5, 6, etc yards and converting 3rd downs as well. He also got a touchdown on a goal line carry. He runs with great explosiveness and power and seems to be able to be productive without getting a bunch of consecutive carries. He doesn’t go in and out of rhythms, which is key since he’s not going to be a lead back at the next level. LaMichael James, on the other hand, is much more inconsistent.He’s got good size (5-11 230) and he doesn’t seem that slow either.

The injury concerns are there with Tyler, but he’s been productive in the past. Last year, he rushed for 913 yards and 9 touchdowns on 171 carries and this year he has 116 carries for 537 yards and 4 touchdowns. He also has 28 catches in the last 2 seasons. His stock is going to be hurt by his injury concerns and his loss of starting job and he could easily go undrafted, but I think he can be one of those backs that goes undrafted and then has an impact as an undrafted free agent. He looks like a capable short yardage back at the next level at least. I’d say he’s worth about a 5th round pick.

Matt Barkley had a very impressive football game. He was 26 of 34 for 323 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 pick. It’s worth noting that that one pick went off his receiver’s hands and it should have been called pass interference on the defense. Barkley made at least a handful of jaw dropping deep throws and threw the ball well consistently overall. He’s really taken off in these last few guys and is putting some distance between himself as guys like Robert Griffin and Landry Jones as the #2 quarterback in this draft class.

He’s a 3 year starter in a pro style system and he’s gotten better every year. He’s completing 67.6% of his passes for an average of 7.7 per attempt and 31 touchdowns to 7 interceptions. He’s been consistent as well. In 11 starts, he has 8 multi touchdown games, 10 games with 0 or 1 interceptions, 9 games of 200+ yards, and 10 games of 60%+ completion percentage.

Now he has a good game in an upset win against Oregon to add to his resume, the same Oregon team that gave Andrew Luck some trouble last week. He doesn’t quite have Luck’s intangibles, pocket presence, speed, athleticism, and he has better weapons to work with an Luck, but if this were a normal year, Barkley would be the #1 pick. He goes #1 8-9 times out of 10, just not this year. 

 

USC/Colorado

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Spotlight #1: USC TE Rhett Ellison

Spotlight #2: Colorado G Ryan Miller 

1st quarter

13:28: Miller gets beat on a run block, but another USC player gets the tackle for loss first because Miller can allow it.

11:02: Ellison with a great block on an outside run on a 3rd and 2 conversion. Impressive, powerful hands. Kalil also had an awesome pull block.

10:30: Ellison on the other side now, helps seal a big hole for the running back.

10:03: Ellison makes a tough catch for no gain after Barkley just had to get it away. Ellison started as a blocked and allowed the pressure on the blitz, but redeemed himself with the nice catch.

9:26: Ellison redeems himself more with a nice pass block on a passing touchdown. Barkley with a nice NFL caliber throw deep to Marqise Lee.

9:18: Miller with another great pass block. He’s been better in pass protection than run blocking early.

8:40: Miller with a great cut block, takes the guy down. Good form.

8:09: Miller whiffs on a 2nd level block, not strong enough to maintain balance, easily disengaged.

5:20: Ellison with another nice pass block.

3:45: Miller with another nice but block.

3:05: Miller allows some pressure, did have to block for a while.

2nd quarter

13:42: Nick Perry hasn’t done much as a pass rusher tonight, aside from a few pressures, but here he explodes for a tackle for loss on a check down to the back, loss of 6.

12:02: Ellison at a fullback with a nice cut block to protect Barkley.

10:23: Miller with a powerful lead block but a poor block before him doesn’t allow Miller’s block to be utilized.

9:20: Ellison with a nice lead block to open a small hole from the fullback spot.

8:16: Barkley with his first bad decision of the night, forces it to a well covered tight end over the middle. Could have been picked.

4:09: Ellison contributing on special teams as well, blocked kick.

2:27: Ellison seals a good run on 2nd and 3, converted 1st down.

1:59: Ellison takes a check down for a bunch, tough to take down in the open field, draws a horse collar penalty as well, hurt. I’ll watch Kalil now.

0:37: Barkley picked off, bad decision. Good effort to make the tackle afterwards.

0:09: Nick Perry with a sack. Miller has to block for a long time and does a good job against a bull rush opposite from the sack.

 

3rd quarter

14:06: Kalil looks like a tight end moving outside on what looked like a route, but throws a 2nd level pull block on a screen for a good gain. So athletic and talented.

8:51: Chris Galippo good in coverage, quickly reads quarterback’s eyes, almost gets a tough pick, but dropped.

7:16: Kalil great job one on one, throws his guy to the ground.

5:34: Kalil seals a hole on 3rd and 7, conversion.

4:47: Kalil throws another guy.

4:08: Kalil stands up a spin move.

1:33: Miller misses a pull block, gives up pressure on a quick drop.

4th quarter

7:06: Barkley sets a new USC record with 6 touchdowns.

6:30: Miller powers a guy off the line, opens a good hole for the back.

5:47: Miller blocks really well for a long time.

5:40: Miller playing some right tackle now.

0:00: Ryan Miller stands out as the best offensive player on a team lacking offensive tackle. Colorado sent Nate Solder to the NFL last year and Miller looks to follow in his footsteps. The 6-8 300 Miller is built like a tackle more than a guard, but plays right guard for Colorado, though he occasionally plays right tackle in a pinch, as he did towards the end of this game.

Miller seems better in pass protection than run blocking. He’s not a very powerful player and could stand to add more strength, but he has quick feet and good technique and would fit a zone blocking scheme best. Miller helped propel Colorado to a 5.6 YPA average, rushing for 134 yards on 25 carries, but as I said, he was best in pass protection as his lack of functional strength didn’t serve him well in run blocking. He’d be best as a zone blocking guard at the next level or maybe even a right tackle because he does have the frame. He looks like a late day 2 pick or an early day 3 pick.

On the USC side, Matt Kalil had an awesome game once again. He wasn’t playing the toughest competition obviously, but he had yet another fantastic game. He’s so athletic on the outside and can just throw guys around. I can’t wait to see what this kid can do once he gets to the level and bulks up a little. USC’s whole offense had a dominant game against lowly Colorado in a 42-17 win.

Matt Barkley set a school record with 6 touchdowns, going 25 of 39 for 318 yards, those 6 touchdowns and just one pick, though he could have had a 2nd one. Those two bad throws were his only mistakes of the night really and he made several throws that will make NFL scouts drool. He’s the early favorite to go #1 overall in 2013 now that he’s returned for his senior season.

Rhett Ellison looked very good for the time he was in the game, leaving with an injury in the 2nd quarter. The hybrid tight end/full back lined up in the backfield, at tight end, and also in the h-back position, and he displayed great run blocking ability out of all 3 positions. He also held up in pass protection and showed good hands and good open field ability on his 2 catches for 10 yards. He’s a better blocker than a receiver, but he did catch 21 passes in 2010 and 22 this season. The 6-5 250 pound Ellison looks like a good mid round selection as either a fullback or a tight end and he can also play special teams. He also blocked a punt in this one.

Defensively, Nick Perry had another nice game, getting consistent pressure against not the toughest matchup. He had a sack and a huge tackle for loss, blowing up a play in the backfield on a pass in the flat. Chris Galippo had a good game, almost having a pick. The once heavily recruited linebacker didn’t have the best season with just 46 tackles, 3.5 for loss, 1.5 sacks, but he has really improved in pass coverage in USC’s cover 2 scheme, despite his size at 6-2 255. He has 5 deflections on the season and has consistent looked good in coverage when I’ve seen him. USC safety TJ McDonald didn’t play the first half after a suspension and didn’t make a noticeable difference when he returned. I still contend that McDonald is an overrated, dirty player who doesn’t have the production to match his measurables and doesn’t have a good fundamental grasp of the game, especially tackling.

 

USC/California

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

Spotlight #1: USC OT Matt Kalil

Spotlight #2: USC MLB Chris Galippo  

1st quarter

13:21: Gallipo is the blitzer, bites big time on the play fake and chases the running back instead of continuing unblocked to the quarterback.

12:35: Kalil on a pull block on an outside run, didn’t do a great job on a play that went for a loss of 5.

11:09: Gallipo with a big hit, but somehow it’s broken.

9:22: Kalil knocks down a guy. Makes it look easy.

9:00: Galippo with a tackle for a gain of just 3 on an outside run.

8:12: Galippo sticks his nose in as 4 or 5 guys stop the ball carrier for a loss.

7:34: Galippo in on a fumble recovery.

7:08: Kalil allows a guy to beat him for a tackle for loss.

6:40: Pancake block by Kalil, completely dominates his man.

5:54: Galippo blitzing, blocked quickly, can’t get off.

5:04: Galippo tries for a tackle, but the running back is able to spin away to break the tackle. Still, he was able to slow him down enough for another guy to come in and stop him for no gain.

3:31: Kalil with a very nice cut block on a screen.

2nd quarter

14:30: Kalil allows a quarterback pressure.

8:53: Kalil lets a guy get around him, but good recovery to shove him off his path to the quarterback with a 2nd effort.

8:07: Kalil absolutely swallows up a pass rusher.

7:37: Kalil’s block is disengages from, allowing some pressure on the quarterback again.

7:21: Galippo on a big tackle for loss after a botched handoff.

6:43: Galippo in coverage, reads the quarterback’s eyes, gets a pick.

6:40: Kalil with another nice cut block. He’s been really good with the finesse stuff tonight.

4:43: Galippo with an explosive play on the ball to bat it down, almost had his 2nd pick of the night.

4:21: Kalil plows open a huge hole.

3:49: Two consecutive run plays towards Kalil’s side has rejuvenated a USC rushing attack that has been very poor to this point tonight. Another big gain on the ground.

3rd quarter

9:54: Excellent push forward by Kalil on a run play.

6:52: Galippo gets in on a tackle for a loss after the back slips in the back field.

4th quarter

5:47: Kalil with another excellent block. He’s been really good tonight, even if I haven’t always made a note of him. I’ve really just written down when he’s made a mistake because his mistakes have been so rare. He’s been awesome once again tonight.

0:00: Matt Kalil is the consensus top left tackle in this draft class and possibly the best player in this draft after Andrew Luck. Did he struggle a little tonight? Yes, he did, but for the most part, he was awesome, especially as a run blocker, but he didn’t even come close to allowing a sack either. Cal’s defense has plenty of talent and is one of the toughest challenges Kalil has had yet and he rose to it.

As for Galippo, he had a nice game. He was a potential top prospect from the day he took over as a starter, but he’s struggle to this point in his career, especially in pass coverage. He looked really good in pass coverage tonight. He’s obviously not an ideal fit for Monte Kiffin’s Tampa 2 defense, but he could have fooled you if you watched him against California. He had one pick and could have had a 2nd one and overall looked mobile in coverage. All these games and practices in this Tampa 2 defense have really helped him. Other than in pass coverage, he also made few other plays, but needs to show better instincts. Overall, he looked like a solid day 2 prospect.

 

USC/Arizona State

stevenlourie Uncategorized

Spotlight #1: USC QB Matt Barkley

Spotlight #2: USC S TJ McDonald 

1st quarter

13:28: McDonald shows poor instincts and is overly aggressive on a run play that goes 70 yards for a touchdown by Arizona State’s Cameron Marshall. Marshall, a junior, could be someone to watch in 2012.

12:27: Barkley complete to Robert Woods near the sideline. Woods is a stud who is will be draft eligible in 2013. As a true sophomore, he has 33 catches for 364 yards and 4 scores in 2 games.

11:12: Barkley overthrows Robert Woods barely. Barkley’s deep ball came out a little wobbly.

8:40: Barkley fakes the handoff to the running back, rolls out and throws an off balance throw across the field. His arm strength looked very good there, but he threw it into coverage. The defensive back almost picked it off, though there was a small interference there that got called.

6:43: Barkley throws a screen after two pump fakes, but I don’t know about that decision. There wasn’t a ton of running room there and the pass catcher fumbled it anyway. 3rd and 13 now after the recovery.

5:13: TJ McDonald gets the tackle, but it’s a very un-fundamental tackle. He doesn’t try to wrap him up. He goes shoulder to helmet. An absolutely dirty hit, with no intention of being anything but that. He’s flagged and it’ll be flagged every time. 15 yard penalty.

2:40: Another play action bootleg by Barkley. They’re obviously comfortable with him doing that. Extremely balanced throw on the run for a 7 yard completion on first down. He’s not the most athletic kid, but he’s got great feet and great technique on the run.

1:36: Barkley pump fakes a couple times, doesn’t see anything he likes, and holds onto the ball too long. He takes the sack.

2nd quarter

14:50: Another penalty on TJ McDonald for the same thing. He doesn’t even try to wrap up. Very poor fundamentals and a dirty play.

13:49: McDonald with a clean hit this time. He combined with another player to tackle a running back on a pretty big run.

12:32: Barkley just short on a deep pass over the middle. He had a guy open and under threw him, but the spiral wasn’t as wobbly as his first deep throw. It’s possible this crazy wind had something to do with that.

12:00: Play action throw on the run once again by Barkley and once again it’s a completion. He wasn’t set when he threw, but he didn’t need to be there. 13 yard completion.

10:49: Barkley checks down on 2nd and 8 and the check down man is hit immediately. I don’t know how Barkley thought the check down man would get anywhere.

10:02: Nice throw by Barkley, but he throws it short of the sticks, with no clear path to the first down.

9:35: Barkley on 4th and 2 makes the quick, accurate pass to Robert Woods inside.

8:28: Barkley doesn’t make the most accurate pass short, but the receiver is able to reel it in. The receiver was wide open and able to run for a first.

8:01: Barkley throws the fade to Woods against single coverage, just out of bounds in the end zone.

7:09: Barkley just under throws his receiver in the end zone and it’s broken up. USC will go for the field goal. Barkley hasn’t looked great tonight. 8-12 for just 45 yards.

5:56: Gerell Robinson with the catch over the middle. TJ McDonald comes in on the tackle immediately. He has nice closing speed. The play is brought back after a hold.

4:40: Barkley with the short throw, doesn’t see Vontaze Burflict in an underneath zone, and it’s picked in the red zone by Burflict. Burflict makes a nice return and is tackled by Barkley. A so called dirty player by Barkley, Burflict helps Barkley up after the play. I’ve been very impressed with Burflict. I can’t wait to spotlight him at a later date.

3:28: McDonald goes for the tackle on a running back, but because he’s not fundamentally sound on the tackle, he gets destroyed and the tackle is broken. McDonald is back, but he’s a very undisciplined tackler. That’s going to lead to penalties and broken tackles at the next level, like it has tonight.

2:54: McDonald misses the diving tackle on Cameron Marshall. Marshall has a great night so far with 94 yards on 10 carries. He also has a 3 yard reception.

1:59: Barkley complete short over the middle. He’ll need to hurry it up a bit if they want to get 6 before the break. Down 21-6, that might be necessary.

1:28: I guess they want 6 before the break. Robert Woods gets wide open downfield and Barkley throws a pretty spiral for a 57 yard completion. USC back in the red zone.

0:55: Barkley incomplete long into the end zone. He needs to be better in the red zone.

0:51: Another very inaccurate pass in the red zone. He had Robert Woods in good position against single coverage, but he didn’t even look his way. Barkley is 10-17 for 106 yards and a pick and more than half of those yards came on one play in which Robert Woods did most of the work getting wide open. He’s not impressed me tonight. I watched Andrew Luck last night. Barkley isn’t even close to his level.

 

3rd quarter

14:50: Another play action completion by Barkley. He wasn’t on a bootleg here, sets his feet and finds an open guy. One area where Barkley has looked good is in play action.

14:27: Barkley throws it up to a 6-4 receiver, who has to go high to get it, but it’s a completion.

13:51: Barkley with a quick check down Robert Woods open in space on 3rd and 2. It goes for the first.

12:43: Barkley finds Woods again, this time over the middle for about 20 yards.

12:16: The wind cooled down at half time and Barkley heated up. Barkley finished a 5-5 drive with a touchdown to Marqise Lee, who makes a nice catch it reel it in. Barkley put it where only his guy could get it, which is key in the end zone, and they get 6. It’s now 21-16 Arizona State.

11:35: TJ McDonald comes in to make the tackle after the receiver makes a big catch for a big gain.

10:26: Barkley off of play action again. He throws it on the money and allows the receiver a chance to try to do something with it. He’s really in rhythm now.

8:39: Barkley throws a beautiful deep ball, just overthrown to Marqise Lee. That’s still a great throw for how under pressure he was, even if it was just overthrown.

8:30: Marc Tyler is USC’s starting running back and a projected day 3 pick. He finally has a big run, going for 26 yards. His previous high was 9 for the game. He doesn’t have a lot of speed, but he’s got good size and he’s shifty and powerful. He’ll be spotlighted at a later date.

8:01: Barkley just floats one out of the end zone. Not even close.

7:40: Tyler this time for 14 yards. He’s looking good.

6:41: Tyler on the misdirection run for the touchdown for 10 yards. He’s at 91 yards on 17 carries today.

1:05: Barkley on the play action bootleg again, not set on the move, but he’s strong enough to throw an accurate pass there to Robert Woods, who makes a nice catch against single coverage.

4th quarter

14:14: Barkley connects to Lee, who can’t get anywhere. Barkley was under pressure and needed to get it out and he gets it to Lee short in stride, but Lee isn’t able to break it.

13:33: Barkley to Woods again. Barkley leaves it a little high and Woods takes a big hit in the air, but still a nice throw for the first down. Woods has 7 catches for 122 yards tonight.

13:04: Barkley with a completion in the flat, but it doesn’t go for much.

12:19: Tyler with a big run powered by a Matt Kalil block. I haven’t said much about Kalil, but he’s very athletic. He’s done a great job keeping guys off of Matt Barkley, who has had a very clean pocket tonight. Kalil had an excellent block here on the outside. He moves well for his size and will obviously be spotlighted at a later date as a potential top 5 pick in the draft. He’s had a couple awesome blocks like this today, but this was his best and it opens a huge lane for Kalil.

10:29: Barkley pressured for one of the first times tonight and he’s hit as he throws. The ball comes out and Arizona State recovers the fumble. USC has not been good in the end zone tonight. This one was as much on Barkley as it was on USC’s right tackle, who allowed the quick pressure. Barkley needs to get that out quicker. He loves pump faking and double clutching, but at a certain point, he needs to be able to get the ball out quick.

9:32: TJ McDonald with a late hit out of bounds. This guy is having a terrible night. 3 personal foul penalties tonight to go with a few missed tackles. Other than that, he really hasn’t had much of an impact tonight in any way. He’s not been an asset to USC’s defense tonight.

8:00: McDonald on the quarterback pressure, but Osweiler gets the ball out quickly. Osweiler is having another nice night today. He’s not coming out this year so I won’t spotlight him this year, but it’s nice to see him bounce back after a poor showing last week. He was good when I watched him against Missouri as well.

6:41: Earlier today I said Barkley needs to get the ball out quickly under pressure. He does that here. The problem, he made a very poor decision. Pick six. 43-22 Arizona State. Safe to say, there’s a huge difference between Barkley and Andrew Luck.

6:30: Barkley under pressure again and throws an off balanced pass that’s not able to be reeled in by the check down man.

6:17: Barkley finds Woods again for a 9 yard completion.

5:51: USC can’t complete the 3rd and 1 with Marc Tyler. Too much dancing at the line and doesn’t find a hole that was there. 4th down.

4:58: Barkley on 4th and 6 after a false start penalty is incomplete. Just an inaccurate ball this time on the outside. Too far outside for the receiver to reel it in.

0:00: There’s a big difference between Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley. Matt Barkley has the talent and the upside to be very good, but it’s clear he’s got a lot to work on. He struggled whenever he was pressured and the difference in pocket presence ability between him and Luck is night and day. He’s got a nice deep ball, but needs to be more accurate with it.

Barkley finished 21 for 33 for 227 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 picks. One of those picks came when he was pressured and just trying to make something happen that wasn’t there. The other pick was when he lost Vontaze Burflict who had dropped into an under zone and made a great play on the ball. Both were by linebackers. Both were on short stuff and both were absolutely avoidable. Andrew Luck is my #1 quarterback. Matt Barkley and Landry Jones are tied for #2. I need to see Landry Jones this season before I can make a decision between the 2. I also want to see a 2nd of Barkley’s games in the future. I don’t feel this was all he had to offer.

Barkley also lost despite getting a lot of help by his running game, his offensive line, and his wide receivers. He wasn’t pressured until late when USC was down and it was obvious there were going to pass. Matt Kalil had an excellent game with a couple highlight reel blocks. Marc Tyler had for 147 yards and a score on 22 carries. The big, powerful back could be moving up draft boards if he keeps this up. True sophomore Robert Woods looks like a first round pick, but he’s not eligible until 2013. After leading the nation and setting a USC record with 33 catches in his first 3 games, he had 8 catches for 131 yards tonight despite the fact that Barkley wasn’t playing particularly well.

As for the other side of the ball, TJ McDonald sucked. He has very poor fundamentals. He doesn’t always wrap up on tackles and he prefers to go for the big hit rather than the safe tackle. This will lead to a lot of broken tackles and personal foul penalties at the next level as it did today. He also wasn’t great in coverage and frequently took plays off. He certainly didn’t look like a day 2 pick. He looked more like a late rounder tonight.

On the Arizona State side, Vontaze Burflict had a huge game. He wasn’t great in his first 3, because he was trying not to be a so called “dirty player” and it was throwing him off. However, tonight he had 5 tackles and a pick to give him 22 tackles, 4 sacks, and a pick in 4 games. I don’t think he’s a dirty player. He just tries hard and has an amazing motor. He even helped Matt Barkley up after Barkley tackled him on an interception return. I’ll definitely be spotlighting him at a later rate, but he looks like the best linebacker in this class. I’ve seen Manti Te’o and didn’t come away impressed, though I’m going to have a 2nd look at him at some point. I also need to spotlight Luke Kueckly for some comparison.

Arizona State quarterback Brock Osweiler did a great job of game managing. He bounced back after a tough game last week against Illinois. He was good against Missouri in a game I watched two weeks ago. He’ll come out next year and I’ll spotlight him then, but he has a lot of promise. He was helped up by Cameron Marshall, a stud junior running back, who should come out next year as well. He has a lot of promise as well with 141 yards and 3 scores on 25 carries. He also caught a couple of passes.

 

Underrated Players

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

All values are as of 4/3/12. The following are players I think are underrated values in PlayTheDraft. You can sign up to play for free (normally 30 dollars) to compete against yours truly, Mel Kiper, and others for a chance to meet Mel Kiper himself. http://game.playthedraft.com/fbdraft/setup/affiliate_league_accept.asp?affiliateID=7

QB Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M)

Tannehill’s price is at 2242, which puts him between the 10th and 11th pick. As long as he goes in the top 10, you’re making money with him. I think his floor is 8 to Miami (2500) and his ceiling is 4 to Cleveland (3150) or even 3 if a team goes crazy and trades up (3250). There’s definitely huge upside here with minimal downside.

QB Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State)

Weeden’s price is 876, which puts him between the 42nd and 43rd picks. I think he’ll end up going in the 1st round one way or another. Either Cleveland passes on Ryan Tannehill and takes him at 22 (1625) or Cleveland takes Tannehill, Miami misses out and panic trades back up into the end of the first round for him. If he goes in the first, you’ll get at least 1375 from him, a gain of almost 500. Worst case scenario, Cleveland at 37 (965), Seattle at 43 (875), and Kansas City at 44 (860) will take him. Minimal downside with big upside here.

WR Stephen Hill (Georgia Tech)

As long as Hill goes in the first round, you’re making money with him. The 32nd pick has a value of 1375 and Hill is going for 1286. Possible destinations include 19 to Chicago (1700), 22 to Cleveland (1625), 25 to Denver (1550), 26 to Houston (1525), and I think that’s his floor, but Baltimore at 29 (1450) or San Francisco at 30 (1425) would snatch him up. You’ll make money with him.

WR Chris Givens (Wake Forest)

Givens is one of those guys who you’ll make money on as long as he gets drafted in the first 3 rounds. He’s going for 548 and the value of the 95th pick is 552. Givens is an underrated prospect who should go in the 2nd or 3rd round.

WR Marvin Jones (California)

You can basically copy and paste what I said for Givens and put it here. Although Jones is slightly cheaper at 547.

WR Ryan Broyles (Oklahoma)

If Broyles is healthy at his Pro Day on April 12th, he’ll shoot back into the first 3 rounds, his value will jump and you’ll make money one way or another. He’s only valued at 494 now and if he is still hurt at his Pro Day, you can dump him with ease.

TE Coby Fleener (Stanford)

Another one of those guys who you’ll make money on as long as he gets drafted in the first round. He’s valued at 1118 and 26 to Houston (1525) is a definitely possibility, as is San Francisco at 30 (1425) and New York at 32 (1375). Worst case, he goes to Indianapolis and reunites with Andrew Luck at 34 (1020) for a minor loss, but I have a good feeling he’ll go in the first round.

C Peter Konz (Wisconsin)

Konz will also make you money if he goes in the first round. He’s valued at 1314 and I doubt New York passes on him at 32 (1375) so this is a pretty safe one. His upside is 19 to Chicago (1700).

OT Bobby Massie (Mississippi)

This is a thin tackle class, but it’s such an important position that teams will reach for players at the position. Massie is probably going to be the 5th tackle off the board. He’s ranked 6th, which is already a good value, but his price is pretty cheap at 681, which puts him at the 59th pick. I can’t see Detroit at 54 (740) passing on him and he’s got the upside to go in the top of the 2nd round to someone like Cleveland at 37 (965), Jacksonville at 38 (950), or St. Louis at 39 (935).

OT Mitchell Schwartz (California)

Another undervalued tackle, Schwartz will make you money if he goes in the top 84 picks. He’ll probably be off the board in the top half of the 3rd round or higher.

OT Jeff Allen (Illinois)

Same thing as above only Allen comes cheaper, 510 as compared to 573, and he’s got more upside. In some circles, he’s viewed as a 2nd round pick.

G Amini Silatolu (Midwestern State)

An underrated small school kid, Tony Pauline thinks he has a shot in go in the top 45 picks (845), while Mike Mayock calls him a 2nd round pick (630). Meanwhile, Russ Lande has him as a potential first round pick (1375). As long as he’s drafted in the first 2 rounds, as he has a value of 642, Silatolu will make you money and there’s obviously big upside with him. I think he’s got an outside shot to go 30th to San Francisco (1452).

G Brandon Brooks (Miami-Ohio)

Another one of those guys who will make you money if they go in the first 3 rounds, Brooks (495) is a pretty safe pick.

 

DT Billy Winn (Boise State)

Winn is incredibly undervalued at 529. As long as he goes in the first 3 rounds, you’ll make money off him and he’s probably a 2nd rounder (650). I can’t see him slipping out of the middle of the 3rd round. The Jets at 77 (592) seems like his floor.

MLB Dont’a Hightower (Alabama)

Hightower (1366) will make you money as long as he goes in the first round. I can’t see him slipping out. He’s very commonly mocked to the Steelers at 24 (1575) and he’s such a good fit for him. I can’t remember the last time I didn’t mock him to them. If they pass, Baltimore at 29 (1450) won’t.

MLB Mychal Kendricks (California)

Kendricks is a rising prospect right now, but his price doesn’t suggest that. At 619, he’s projected between the 68th and 69th picks, but he’s actually get some first round buzz to Baltimore at 29 (1450) and New York at 32 (1375). I wouldn’t go that far, but I doubt he gets out of the top half of the 2nd round. I have him going to Seattle at 43 (875).

OLB Bobby Wagner (Utah State)

Kendricks is the rising prospect now, but Wagner could be the rising prospect next after he essentially matched all of Kendricks’ numbers at his recent Pro Day. Wagner has an outside shot at the first round (1375) and Tampa Bay at 36 (980), St. Louis at 39 (935), Carolina at 40 (920), Bufalo at 41 (905), Seattle at 43 (975), Philadelphia at 46 (830), and Chicago at 50 (780) are all possibilities for him. His price is only 658 and you’ll make money on him as long as he goes in the top 61 picks.

RLB Shea McClellin (Boise State)

McClellin is valued at 578, the equivalent of the 82th pick, but he’ll probably be a top half of the 2nd round pick, with an outside shot at the first round. He reminds me of Brooks Reed coming out last year.

CB Stephen Gilmore (South Carolina)

Gilmore is a rising prospect with an outside shot at the top 15 or top 10. Cincinnati at 17 (1750) is a more reasonable spot for him, but I wouldn’t rule out him going in the top 15 or top 10, even to Carolina at 9 (2350). His price is 1517, or the equivalent of 27 to New England, which I think is his absolute floor.

S Harrison Smith (Notre Dame)

This is a weak safety class so Smith will probably go in the top half of the 2nd round or late in the first round. You’ll make money off him as long as he goes above 56 to Pittsburgh. His price is 722.