Todd McShay: The NFL Draft is one big crapshoot? Not if you listen to me.

Yeah, because if you listen to him, you’re sure to fail. This guy is wrong every year. He doesn’t get to have a cocky sounding title like that. Some more of his brilliant predictions this year, Jimmy Clausen falling to the 2^nd round (because he’s the next JP Losman, apparently), Gerald McCoy going #1 over Ndamukong Suh, and Jason Pierre Paul going #3 to the Bucs. Let’s see what brilliance he gives us in this addition of ESPN the Magazine (February 22^nd 2010, Page 13)

He starts off saying all the right things, focus on the top four positions, though he puts cornerback 3rd before pass rusher which seems a little backwards, but not too bad. Then he talks about how the top 5 in QB rating in the NFL last year were all drafted in the top 33, a very good point, and then he gives us this…

“So while All-America safety Eric Berry is tempting, the St. Louis Rams shouldn’t think twice about snatching a defensive tackle, Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy, at No. 1. A combo of Suh and, say, LSU safety Chad Jones, will win more games than Berry, and, say Dan Williams will.”

Gotta love it. Right in the middle of telling us the importance of taking quarterbacks, left tackles, cornerbacks, and pass rushers (which normally means defensive ends, not defensive tackles as McShay seems to think), he tells us that the Rams should take a defensive tackle. Yes, that first option of Suh and Jones will win you more games than Berry and Williams, but most likely it’ll be a difference of like 5 wins to 4. At the end of the day, you still suck because Marc Bulger is your quarterback. 

But wait, there’s more

“Savvy GMs know the least-seen part of a player’s combine performance, the personal interview, is the most important gauge.”

Really? Now, I’m no Al Davis, but 40 times and measurables do matter. But apparently according to McShay, it doesn’t matter if you can run, if you can make up some nice scripted answers to interview questions. 

“Maualuga had a solid rookie season (63 tackles), but it is now clear why he was the third USC linebacker drafted in 2009.”

Huh? I’m normally would give McShay the benefit of the doubt and just assume he was referring to the fact that the other two USC linebackers had better rookie seasons, or maybe that Maualuga was charged with DUI late in the season, but McShay doesn’t mention Clay Matthews or Brian Cushing anywhere or a DUI anywhere so I’m just going to assume McShay thinks that a good rookie season proves a player is bad. How does America have a 10% unemployment rate, yet this guy has a job?

“But what that team will know is that [Derrick] Morgan is far more versatile and game aware than his counterpart (referring to Jason Pierre Paul), who hasn’t show much more than pure pass rushing ability.”

First of all, if you think Morgan is the better player, why do you have JPP going 3^rd over Morgan? You’re not smart enough to be questioning the Buccaneers intelligence and saying that they will make the wrong pick, which you didn’t say in your mock. Second of all, where was this pure pass rushing ability? JPP had 5.5 sacks last year, his only year in Division I. I don’t care what he did in JuCo, that’s JuCo. What did he do against good competition. How is he going to dominant the NFL if he didn’t dominate Division I. Morgan and his 12.5 sacks is clearly the better overall player and the better pass rusher.

“Buffalo fans had best hope their team has learned its lesson as it debates whether to reach for QB Jimmy Clausen at 9.”

First of all, Clausen won’t be available at 9 because, unlike McShay, most NFL drafters know what they are doing. The top 8 consists of 3 teams that already have franchise quarterbacks, 1 team whose owner is too busy being dead to draft the right player, and 4 teams that are going to be looking for quarterbacks and when teams need quarterbacks and there is one available, most of the time they take him. There aren’t 4 elite quarterbacks in this draft class so there is no way Clausen falls to the Bills. Second, if he does, they would be idiotic to pass on him, like Todd McShay idiotic.

He follows that quote up with this

“I see him as the No. 28 prospect in the draft.”

Behind who?!?! You mean to tell me there’s 27 players in this draft class better than a guy who put up amazing stats in a pro style offense despite playing through injury and playing with not a lot of talent around him. If so, this is the best draft class in the history of the world. Todd McShay does this every year. In 2008 he said he wouldn’t use a top 15 pick on Matt Ryan. One year later, Ryan had led the once 4-12 Falcons to the playoffs. He hates like every single quarterback prospect. If it were up to him, the forward pass would not exist. He just seems way too afraid to take any quarterback in the first round, but if you don’t there’s a good chance you just aren’t going to win at all.

And to finish things off

“A QB like Colt McCoy or Tony Pike will be waiting for them later.”

Yeah, there’s a reason for that. They will be waiting there for them because they aren’t franchise quarterbacks. History shows that in the past decade, 2 quarterbacks that have been drafted in the 2^nd or 3^rd round have made the Pro Bowl. That’s out of 24 quarterbacks. If history continues, that would mean a quarterback available in the 2^nd or 3^rd round has a 2 in 24 chance of making the Pro Bowl and a 1 in 24 chance of winning you a Super Bowl. Those odds might not stay true every year, but I don’t like those odds if I need a quarterback. The odds are much better to take a quarterback in the first round. In fact, of the 16 quarterbacks drafted in the 2^nd or 3^rd from 2000-2006, 16 quarterbacks in total, 4 of them have thrown more touchdowns than picks in their careers. I don’t like those odds. I don’t like anything near those odds. I don’t like waiting until the 2^nd round to take a quarterback. For more on taking a quarterback in the 1^st versus not, click here.

One final thing, stats don’t say it all, but this is Clausen vs. McCoy and Pike this season.

Clausen: 289 for 425 (68.0) for 3722 yards (8.8) 28 TDs 4 INTs

Pike: 211 for 338 (62.4) for 2520 yards (7.5) 29 TDs 6 INTs

McCoy: 332 for 470 (70.6) for 3521 yards (7.5) 27 TDs 12 INTs

Keep in mind, Clausen was doing that in a Pro Style offense with half the talent around him that Pike and McCoy had. Yet he still had a higher completion percentage, by far, than Pike, and he averaged more than a yard more per attempt and had a QB/INT ratio that is double McCoy’s and higher than Pike’s. All this with a toe injury.

I will remain puzzled as to why Todd McShay has a job with ESPN until the day he no longer does. Mel Kiper is clearly the better ESPN NFL Draft analyst. McShay is just wrong, all the time. Professional stupidity of McShay’s caliber should be illegal.

McClure isn’t that great of a center any more, but he still gets the job done at age 35 and the Falcons learned firsthand the value of continuity on the offensive line. This was a very smart move bringing him back for the veteran’s minimum, but they’ll need to find a successor soon, either internally with Joe Hawley, who might be a guard long term, or externally through the draft.

Grade: A

This is an extension onto Herremans’ existing 2 year deal, so over 2014-2016 Herrmans will be signed for 3 years, 21 million, with 11 million guaranteed. This is a bit of a head scratcher. A new deal with Herrmans didn’t seem urgent and while Herremans was solid at right tackle for them last year (4 sacks, 37 pressures, 9 penalties), that was his first year at the position after moving over from guard. Why not make him prove it for another year or even let him hit the open market in 2014?

Even with two more years of solid play at the position, Herremans probably wouldn’t command 7 million per year on the open market in 2014 as a soon to be 32 year old. Hell, Eric Winston, a superior player who is only 28, was just cut rather than being paid 6.5 million by the Texans. Winston was ranked 11^th overall at the offensive tackle position last year by ProFootballFocus. Herremans was 26^th.

Grade: C

Heap is not an amazing tight end or anything anymore and at 31 with his history of injury problems, he’s also no guarantee, but when he’s healthy, he’s an adequate starting tight end. They got him relatively cheap, about 3 million per year over 2 years, and if he’s healthy, they won’t have to force 3^rd round pick Rob Housler into action too early and they can do some more two-tight end sets.

Grade: B

By Adam McFadden 

So Todd is getting the start at quarterback this week against the Panthers and I bet he wished he was out fishing right now and stayed retired. I wish him the best luck, not only for the obvious reason that I want the Bears to win, but because of the swiss cheese offensive line. Chris Williams is not going to play again this week meaning we’ll basically have what amounts to two seventh round rookies starting on the right side of the line in Lance Louis and Webb. Todd is a statue in the pocket, meaning he’ll probably take some pretty serious shots behind this line that gave up a record nine sacks to the Giants in the first half alone.

The question becomes why go with Collins and not Hanie? Hanie obviously has more upside because he’s not 100 years old like Collins, but more importantly he is mobile. Hanie’s style of play resembles Cutler’s more and that style got us to 3-0 and gave this offense a chance to make plays down field. Martz’s system doesn’t work too well with a dink and dunk noodle armed passer like Collins and everyone knows we can’t run the ball. Expect a very poor offensive performance from the Bears this week especially on third down. At least Brad Maynard is healthy…

Also guys, I just wanted to share with you a great deal I got on some nightstands through CSN Stores. Check them out if you’re planning on doing any furniture shopping. They also have a lot of cool Bears stuff.

http://www.dabearsandbulls.com/ 

Running Back/Full back

Stanford

6-0 231

40 time: 4.53

Draft board overall prospect rank: #52

Draft board running back rank: #4

Overall rating: 77*

 2/28/10: Gerhart proved that just because he’s white, doesn’t mean he’s not athletic. Gerhart ran a very impressive 4.53 at 6-0 231 and also had a 38 inch vertical and 22 reps of 225 pounds. He likely shot himself ahead of a plummeting Jonathan Dwyer.

1/17/10: He’s a Heisman runner up, but, contrary to popular belief, that does not make him a future star at the next level. He is very slow and doesn’t change direction and he runs really upright and isn’t going to break nearly as many tackles next year against linebackers with refined tackling abilities. He does have good size though and runs with a lot of force and explosion so he should be a solid change of pace back, goal line back, or even fullback if his lead blocking improves, so he has a spot for him at the next level. It just won’t as a feature back or a star. 

12/12/09: Not a feature back at the next level, but a good change of pace back, goal line back, and possibly fullback. Jacob Hester was the same way out of LSU a few years back and went early 3^rd round, so Gerhart looks to be a pretty safe 2^nd round pick right now. A 40 time lower than 4.55 (projected 4.61) could change the whole game for him in the eyes of the scouts. 

            9/26/09: There are very few big guys who move like Toby Gerhart. At 235 pounds, he’s bigger than a lot of linebackers which allows him to break a lot of tackles and run a lot of guys over, but he also displays great agility for his size. He very rarely gets tackled in the backfield and always is able to do something with the football. Stanford hasn’t been great at quarterback in Gerhart’s time there so defense have been keying on in him, but that hasn’t stopped him from quietly being one of the more productive running backs in the country. He had 1136 yards and 15 touchdowns last year on a 5.4 average and has 516 yards on 91 carries and 5 touchdowns already in this young season. He doesn’t run a good 40 and has no 2^nd gear. After his initial burst he doesn’t get you a lot more. His 40 time could be as high as 4.6, which, even at his size, is very poor. He’s obviously a lot more mobile than his 40 time indicates and he sees holes very well, but I don’t think he has enough of a repertoire to be a feature back in the NFL. He should be a solid depth guy too and can be used on some short yardage plays. He has decent hands for his size. He also is on the Stanford baseball team, though he appears committed to football. He blocks very well, mostly because of his size, but that extra blocker in the backfield can be the difference between a completion and a pressure forced incompletion for a quarterback. He may have a future at fullback. I wouldn’t use more than a 3^rd round pick on him as I don’t envision him as more than a depth guy at running back or a future fullback.

NFL Comparison: Peyton Hillis

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

Wide Receiver

Boise State

5-11 174

Draft Board Overall Prospect Rank: #32

Draft Board Overall Wide Receiver Rank: #5

Rating: 81 (early 2nd)

40 time: 4.43

2/20/11: Titus Young was my favorite sleeper heading into the Senior Bowl and now, not only is the cat out of the bag, he might actually be overrated. People are calling him the next DeSean Jackson or the next Mike Wallace. He’s not that fast. He’s got good speed and certainly quicker than fast and dangerous in space, the type of player who can make nothing into something in the open field, but he’s not a blazing deep threat.

He’s probably best off as a high YAC slot receiver at the next level, though his lack of size will make it tough to him to go down the middle often. He might need to bulk up 5-10 pounds without losing quickness. He says he can run a 4.2 and obviously if he can, I might reconsider the type of fast he is, but considering most estimates before his claim of a 4.2 were in the low 4.4s, high 4.3s, I’m skeptical. We’ll see at The Combine.

He’s a good route runner, especially on shorter routes. He finds seams in defenses well and will turn a 5-7 yard completion into a 12+ yard gain. He’s a very smart kid with solid hands, though he did have a bad case of the dropsies at Senior Bowl practices. That’s not the type of player he was during the season. He’s a very accomplished college receiver, with 150 catches for 2256 yards and 19 touchdowns in his last 2 seasons.

He’s not an endzone threat or a vertical threat at only 5-11 with average hops, but he’s a very good underneath receiver who can stretch the field and do damage after the catch. He’s also a good special teams player who 2 years of experience as a kick returner, returning 2 to the house in 2009. He’s not the most physical dominant guy, but he’s smart and scrappy and a much better overall receiver that his teammate, the 6-3 Austin Pettis.

NFL Comparison: Lee Evans

After winning 8 of their last 10 in 2009, once they replaced Kerry Collins with Vince Young, hopes were high going into 2010. They started off by winning 5 of their first 7 and adding Randy Moss, in a very uncharacteristic move. Normally this team doesn’t like to add big name, big ego players in the decline of their career, especially not at skill positions, but most agreed it was the right move.

However, things fell apart in a week 11 overtime loss to the Redskins. Vince Young hurt his thumb, but wanted to go back in. Jeff Fisher didn’t let him and Young threw the ultimate hissy fit, throwing his pads into the stands and walking out of a post-game locker room team meeting. Fisher then placed Young on IR to get him to go away and banned him from team facilities.

Stuck with a combination of Kerry Collins and Rusty Smith at quarterback, as well as a supporting cast that largely sided with Vince Young and thus didn’t play hard for Fisher after Young was put on IR, the Titans finished 6-10. Jeff Fisher’s job is safe for 2011, but it has been announced that Vince Young is done in Tennessee. They will either try to trade him or release him this offseason.

The relationship between Young and Fisher was doomed from the start. Young gets more of the blame from the media, but I think Young, Fisher and owner Bud Adams are all equally at fault. Fisher never made an attempt to embrace Young as his starter after Bud Adams forced him to spend the #3 pick in 2006 on him. Young was repeatedly benched, even mid game like he was week 2. And that was when he was playing well. This is another lesson in the importance of good Coach/Quarterback relationships.

The Titans will start over with a new quarterback this offseason, but it most likely won’t be a rookie. Jeff Fisher is in the final year of his deal and needs a good year to keep his job. That pretty much eliminates the possibility of them drafting a rookie. Their veteran options are fairly limited as well. Donovan McNabb and Kyle Orton are the only experienced starters on the market this offseason, unless Detroit makes Shaun Hill available or Dallas makes Jon Kitna available or Philly somehow doesn’t resign Michael Vick. I can’t see the Titans rolling the dice with someone like Kevin Kolb.

As for Randy Moss, he kept his mouth shut. He didn’t insult his quarterback’s hair like he did in New England or insult a chef’s cooking like he did in Minnesota. The only problem, he didn’t play well either. Moss caught 6 passes for 80 yards in 8 games, was benched before week 14, and didn’t play more than a couple snaps weeks 16 and 17.

Moss kept his mouth shut, but after that terrible performance, it’s safe to say that Moss won’t be in high demand this offseason. His negatives have officially outweighed his positives and at 34 years old in February, I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t have a job come September. It also is worth noting that after Moss left New England, the Pats went 11-1 and Moss’ teams went 2-10. Teams should just stop trading with Bill Belicheck. No one ever wins.

The Titans are cleaning house. Former Head Coach Jeff Fisher is gone after 17 seasons, replaced with Mike Munchak. Vince Young is gone, as is Kerry Collins, who retired. They drafted Jake Locker with the 8^th overall pick and signed Matt Hasselbeck to be a stopgap for them until Locker is ready to start. Hasselbeck was solid last year when healthy, but he turns 36 in September and he can’t seem to stay healthy. He hasn’t played a full 16 game set since 2007, missing 13 games in the 3 seasons since then, so there’s a very good chance we see Jake Locker start a few games this season.

Chris Johnson is their best offensive player. After rushing for over 2000 yards in 2009, the 6^th player in NFL history to do so, Johnson saw his YPC fall from 5.6 to 4.3 in 2010. A major reason behind that is that he wasn’t sharing a backfield with Vince Young as much. When Young was in the lineup, Johnson averaged 4.8 yards per carry in 2010. When he wasn’t, Johnson averaged 3.8 yards per carry. This makes sense because opposing defenses had to respect Young’s rushing ability and couldn’t just focus on Johnson.

Another major reason behind his struggles was his interior blocking. Eugene Amano at center and, LeRoy Harris, and Jake Scott at guard all ranked among the worst run blockers in the league last year, as did fullback Ahmard Hall. They didn’t replace any of those 4 players so it’s definitely possible that Johnson could continue to “struggle” by his standard, especially since Vince Young is gone for good.

On top of all that, Chris Johnson is currently holding out. The Titans will offer him a contract that would make him the highest paid running back in NFL history if he reports, but that isn’t enough for him. He wants a deal worth 39 million over the first 3 years. I don’t think he misses any games, but he definitely could.

Even if he doesn’t miss any games, a holdout could hurt him this season. Darrelle Revis was never quite right last season after his preseason holdout. Given that we’re coming off a lockout shortened offseason, the training camp and preseason games that Johnson is missing are even more valuable than they normally would be.

Rounding out their offensive front are tackles Michael Ross (left) and David Stewart (right). Both struggled last season. Roos, normally a great pass protector, allowed 9 sacks last season. Stewart, meanwhile, allowed 25 quarterback pressures on the right side. Roos allowed 5 sacks in his previous 2 seasons, while Stewart allowed 4 in that same time span, so it’s very possible one or both bounce back this season.

Kenny Britt is their #1 receiver. With a better quarterback and now that he’s in his 3^rd year, he should be primed to breakout. He caught 42 passes for 775 yards and 9 touchdowns last season in just 12 games. One problem, he got arrested almost weekly this offseason so he should be expecting a suspension, possibly a 4 game long one.

Opposite Kenny Britt, Nate Washington is the #2 receiver. Washington belongs in the slot, where he thrived in Pittsburgh. However, unless 2010 3^rd round pick Damian Williams can step up and push him from the starting lineup, Washington will once again be a starter. Williams would start if Britt gets suspended so he should get a chance to show what he has. I liked Williams a lot coming out of USC so I really hope he can prove me right.

At tight end, Craig Stevens is currently penciled in as the starter. I think Jared Cook can beat him out in camp. Cook, a 3^rd rounder in 2009, caught 15 passes for 196 yards and a touchdown in his final 3 games. Stevens, meanwhile, will come in on 2 tight end sets and serve as a strong blocker, the role he was in last season.

Defense used to be the strength of this team. Now it is far from that. In fact, it could be one of the worst stop units in the league. Jason Babin is gone. He had 12.5 sacks for them last season. The rest of the team combined for 27.5. They’ll miss him. Jason Jones will be moving from tackle to end. He’s very good against the run, especially for an end, but he only managed 3.5 sacks last season. He’s not a great pass rusher.

Opposite him, Derrick Morgan will start at right end. He was the 16^th pick in 2010, but missed most of his rookie season with an injury. They’ll hope he can step up in a big way for them this season, otherwise they might not have a consistent #1 pass rusher. Nickel rusher Dave Ball had 7 sacks last year, but he isn’t good enough against the run to be an every down end.

With Jason Jones moving from tackle to end, the Titans signed Shaun Smith from the Chiefs to start at defensive tackle. 2009 2^nd round pick Sen’Derrick Marks, who has disappointed to this point in his career, will compete with rookie 3^rd rounder Jurrell Casey to start at under tackle next to Smith. However, with former defensive line coach Jim Washburn gone, it’s reasonable to expect Tennessee’s defensive line as a whole to struggle. Washburn always got the most out of everyone, even Albert Haynesworth for the most part. I think he made this defensive line look better than it was last year. I don’t think there’s a ton of talent on the line.

Also gone this offseason is Stephen Tulloch. Tulloch is a free agent loss on the same level of Albert Haynesworth after 2008 and Jason Babin this offseason. Tulloch was 2^nd in the league in tackles. How Detroit only got him for 3.35 million over one year, I don’t know, but if the Titans didn’t at least try to outbid them, they’re stupid. He’s a huge loss. He’ll be replaced by free agent acquisition Barrett Ruud. Ruud, once one of the best linebackers in the league, has seen a decline in the past two years thanks to injuries.

Around Ruud in the middle, Akeem Ayers is expected to start on the strong side. He was drafted in the 2^nd round this past April. As with most rookies, he could struggle. On the weak side, Will Witherspoon is a 31 year old marginal player. Gerald McGrath, who was a starter last year but lost his job to Ayers, could end up starting over Witherspoon by the end of the season.

At cornerback, Cortland Finnegan will start next to Alterraun Verner. Finnegan is coming off a down year, but he’s one of the league’s better cornerbacks. Verner, meanwhjle, impressed as a 4^th round pick rookie in 2010 and should be even better in 2011. Jason McCourty, another solid young player, is expected to be the nickel corner. Michael Griffin at free safety is also a solid player. Chris Hope is the weak link in their secondary. Fortunately for them, he’s a strong safety, the least important position in a secondary.

The Titans went into 2010 as a potential sleeper and ended up finishing 6-10 and needing to find a new quarterback through the draft. They are clearly in a rebuilding phase and their record should reflect that this season. Their defense is a far cry from what it once was, while the offense should experience growing pains, especially coming off of a lockout shortened offseason. Even their best player, Chris Johnson, will be hurt by terrible blocking and his own decision to hold out through training camp and the preseason for more money.

Quarterback: C+

Running backs: A-

Receiving corps: C

Offensive line: C-

Run defense: B-

Pass rush: C

Pass coverage: B-

Coaching: C-

Projection: 7-9 2nd in AFC South

Defensive End

The Titans’ 28 sacks were one of the fewest totals in the NFL. Karl Klug led the way with 7 at defensive tackle, while Derrick Morgan hardly proved to be worth the 16^th overall pick in 2010 in his first full season in the NFL with 3.5 sacks. Rotational ends Jason Jones and Dave Ball were not much better and both are them are free agents. They’ll take a long look at someone like Nick Perry 20^th overall.

Center

Chris Johnson struggled last season for a number of reasons. For one, he wasn’t in shape out of the lockout and off his holdout. Meanwhile, their interior blocking was once again terrible. The worst was Eugene Amano, arguably the worst starting center in the league last year. Running to either side of the center, Titans running backs averaged just 2.4 yards per carry and 2.5 yards per carry last season.

Guard

Center isn’t the only problem position on the interior of their offensive line. Left guard LeRoy Harris was solid in pass protection, but the Titans averaged just 3.2 yards per carry running behind left guard last season. Right guard Jake Scott was actually pretty good, but he’s a free agent. Head Coach Mike Munchak criticized their offensive line play this season so it’s very possible their 20^th overall pick will be used on a guard like David DeCastro or Cordy Glenn or a center like Peter Konz.

Wide Receiver

The Titans were so desperate for a wide receiver opposite Kenny Britt that they signed Randy Moss in 2010. This year, their lack of depth at the position was proven when Kenny Britt went on IR after week 3. Nate Washington was solid, but Damian Williams and Lavelle Hawkins were far from it. They could really use a 3^rd receiver in the mix to go with Washington and a hopefully healthy Kenny Britt.

Safety

Michael Griffin is a free agent and could go to St. Louis to reunite with Jeff Fisher. Chris Hope is a 31 year old marginal player coming off an injury plagued season in which he lost his starting job to Jordan Babineaux, another marginal player who the Titans are in talks with about a long term extension.

Outside Linebacker

The Titans have two solid young linebackers in Akeem Ayers and Colin McCarthy, but they need one more. Barrett Ruud was a disaster in his one season in Tennessee. He won’t be back. Meanwhile, Will Witherspoon is a soon to be 32 year old declining player. He could be a one year stopgap at outside linebacker, but they’ll need to develop someone behind him.

Cornerback

The Titans had the luxury of having 3 great cornerbacks last season in Cortland Finnegan, Jason McCourty, and Alterraun Verner. Finnegan is a free agent and could also follow Fisher to St. Louis. McCourty and Verner are more than capable of being the starters, but they need one more cornerback for depth purposes.

Defensive Tackle

Jurrell Casey and Karl Klug were both great at defensive tackle as a rookies, but they love rotation on the defensive line. Sen’Derrick Marks was not very good in a rotational role last year so they could take another defensive tackle through the draft if the value fits.