The Houston Texans have never made the playoffs. They have been trendy sleeper picks for the past few years and have never come through. Some people have sworn off of making them sleepers. I am not one of those people. In fact, this is the first year I can really call Houston one of my sleepers. Peyton Manning had offseason surgery and will miss most of if not all of the preseason. The last time that happened, he struggled early in the season. The Texans play the Colts week 1, a game they won last year. If they win again, they might not look back. They could take this division.

Offense has never been the problem for this team. With Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson, they might have the best QB/RB/WR trio in the league. They also have quite possibly the league’s most underrated offensive line. They’ll be fine offensively and I’ll get back to that later. First, I want to focus on their defense.

Their defense was bad last year. It was really bad last year. Like really, really, really bad. They allowed the most passing yards in the league and were 2^nd in passing yards per attempt. They allowed the 3^rd most total yards and the 4^th most points. The only thing that wasn’t terrible was their run defense, ranked 11^th. However, this is a passing league and if you can’t stop the pass, you won’t make the playoffs.

The Texans have fixed that pass defense this offseason. They brought in two starting caliber defensive backs, in the offseason, Danieal Manning and Johnathan Joseph. Joseph was the market’s #2 cornerback behind Nnamdi Asomugha. He is extremely talented and will definitely add to this pass defense. As for the other 2 starting spots in the secondary, 2010 2^nd round pick Kareem Jackson will be the #2 cornerback. He was very, very, very terrible last year, but rookie cornerbacks tend to struggle. He’s talented and I expect him to bounce back, especially now that he’s not the #1 guy anymore.

At free safety, Glover Quin will start. He makes the move from cornerback to free safety and he can’t possibly be as bad at free safety as he was at corner, though that’s not saying much. If he does badly, the mediocre Troy Nolan would take over at free safety, so this position is definitely still a weakness. 2^nd round rookie Brandon Harris will be the nickel corner. I had a first round grade on him, so naturally I thought it was a steal when they got him in the late 2^nd. Another rookie, Rashard Carmichael, as well as Brice McCain, a 3^rd year player, provide depth at the position.

Now let’s look some more at the front 7. DeMeco Ryans is back at middle linebacker. That’s a huge plus. This team was 4-2 when he got hurt last year and finished 6-10. I’m not saying his injury had everything to do with that, but he’s definitely a valuable member of this defense. He’ll line up inside next to stud linebacker Brian Cushing. At rush linebacker, the Texans added Brooks Reed in the 2^nd round of the draft, another good pick. He’ll compete with 2009 2^nd round pick Connor Barwin for the starting job. Barwin is largely an unknown commodity. He didn’t play much as a rookie and went down for the season with an injury week 1 last season. Still, having Barwin back is a plus. He and Reed should see plenty of the field, no matter who wins the starting job.

At the other rush linebacker position, they have Mario Williams. Because he’s about 285 pounds, many doubt Williams ability to play rush linebacker, a position where you need speed and pass coverage ability in addition to being a good pass rusher. However, Williams has plenty of speed. Remember he ran a 4.6 at The Combine coming out.

Plus, he’s not playing any old rush linebacker position. He’s playing rush linebacker in Wade Phillips’ defense. This works to his advantage for several reasons. One, Wade Phillips asks his rush linebackers to drop into coverage less than almost any other coordinator out there. Just ask DeMarcus Ware. Ware is terrible in pass coverage, but he’s still frequently mentioned among the best defensive players in the league. He has Wade Phillips to thank for that.

Two, while Wade Phillips does use a base 3-4, he uses sub packages more than just about any other coordinator in the league. Most of these sub packages use 4 man lines, in which Phillips will line up at his old spot from 2010. Tamba Hali made the successful move to a 3-4 as a rush linebacker at 275 pounds. Williams can do the same at 285 pounds in a Wade Phillips scheme that will highlight his strengths and mask his weaknesses.

The defensive line might be the most troubling part of this defense. They added JJ Watt with the 11^th pick, yet another talented rookie coming in, but he is still just a rookie, coming off of a lockout shortened offseason. At nose tackle, Earl Mitchell is penciled in as the starter. He only weighs about 290-295 pounds. Wade Phillips has had success with smaller nose tackles before, particularly Jay Ratliff in Dallas. However, Ratliff was still about 10-15 pounds heavier than Mitchell. If Mitchell can’t hold down the job, the mediocre Shaun Cody would start.

Opposite JJ Watt, things are a little better than at the nose, but not much. Antonio Smith is a better fit for the 3-4 than the 4-3, but he’s still a borderline talent. He could be easily upgraded. However, this defense is going to be, at the very least, average. Add in DeMeco Ryans and Connor Barwin back from injury, Brooks Reed, JJ Watt, and Brandon Harris through the draft, and Johnathan Joseph and Danieal Manning through free agency, that’s a lot of talent coming in.

Kareem Jackson will be better. Glover Quin probably will be better. They add a legitimate defensive coordinator in Wade Phillips and he’s instituting a 3-4 defense, important because Peyton Manning’s struggles against 3-4s in his career are well documented. If this defense is average and the offense keeps doing what it’s doing, they can easily win this division, provided they beat the Colts week 1. I think this is the year they make the playoffs.

Now, onto that offense. You all know about Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson, as well as other talented receivers like Kevin Walter, James Jones, and Owen Daniels. However, what about that offensive line? Duane Brown (left tackle), Wade Smith (left guard), Chris Myers (center), Matt Brisiel (right guard), Eric Winston (right tackle). They might not be the biggest names, but they work well as a unit, they don’t miss games, and they fit the zone blocking scheme like a glove. They allowed a mere 27 sacks last year and they were one of the best run blocking lines in the league, helping Arian Foster lead the league in rushing.

A lot of people are doubting Arian Foster. He is a one year wonder, they say, or he will really miss talented fullback Vonta Leach, they say. However, the offensive line was just as big a part of his success and he’s very talented in his own right. He’ll be fine, even with Lawrence Vickers replacing Vonta Leach. Plus, he’s a solid pass catcher.

As I said before, if this defense can be even average, I think this team can win the division. In order to win the division, they’ll have to beat the Colts week 1, but I think they have a very good chance to do that, and even if they don’t, I think they can sneak in as a wild card. I have a little bit higher of a projection for them. Every year, one team that didn’t make the playoffs the year before gets a first round bye. I think this is that team this year. There was a point when the Saints were a team that couldn’t win anything. They won the Super Bowl the next year.

Quarterback: B+

Running backs: A

Receiving corps: B+

Offensive line: A-

Run defense: C+

Pass rush: B-

Pass coverage: B-

Coaching: C-

Projection: 12-4 1^st in AFC South

Nose Tackle

Wade Phillips has always had success with smaller nose tackle, especially Jay Ratliff in Dallas, but guys like Shaun Cody and Earl Mitchell, barely 300 pounds, are small even for Phillips’ scheme. Neither of them are particularly talented either. Phillips could be looking for his Jay Ratliff this offseason.

Wide Receiver

Andre Johnson is a great wide receiver, but he turns 31 this offseason and has had a history of injury problems. With him out of the lineup this year, their lack of depth was exposed as neither Kevin Walter nor Jacoby Jones are very good. They’ll look for a receiver to start opposite Johnson and eventually take over as his long term replacement in 3-4+ years.

Safety

The Texans did an excellent job of fixing their defense this offseason, but they could still upgrade Glover Quin at safety. He wasn’t awful this season, but the former cornerback struggled against the run.

Guard

The Texans have a great offensive line, but Wade Smith is the weak point at left guard. Meanwhile, right guard Mike Brisiel is a free agent.

Center

Center Chris Myers is also a free agent. If he’s resigned, he could move to guard depending on what happens with Wade Smith and Mike Brisiel.

By Trey Huguley 

After a very frustrating loss last week against the New York Giants, the Houston Texans face a “must win” situation hosting the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6.  At 3-2 and first in the AFC South, the Texans are having a decent year, but the negative aspects of their games make that winning record look like it doesn’t mean that much.  

If the Texans can beat the Chiefs this weekend and go into the bye Week 4-2, things would definitely be looking up. Not only would it help the Texans maintain their top positioning in the Division, but it would also help them go into the break with some real momentum. Then the bye week will give them time to fix the problems that have been plaguing the Texans defense all year long….pass coverage and pass rush. 

Ironically, in order to beat the Chiefs though, they’ll need to correct those issues a week sooner than the bye; or at the very least, put a metaphorical “band-aid” over them. Luckily, Matt Cassell doesn’t lead a very powerful passing game, but the Chiefs offensive line has been top notch – only allowing 3 sacks so far this season.  The Texans defensive line will have to do all they can to put pressure on Cassell and disrupt his passes. 

The even more difficult challenge for the Texans defense, however, is the fact that they will have to be on the look out for the Chiefs decent running game as well. The line should be able to handle this, but the Texans secondary better be on their toes so they aren’t caught out of position. Often in the games where quarterbacks have thrown for over 300 yards against the Texans secondary, it was because Safeties Eugene Wilson or Bernard Pollard were caught out of position in zone coverage. They better be paying attention this week’s “must win.”

If the Texans were to lose this game, half of their fan base would jump ship. This could be really bad considering that the Texans are finally getting national media attention and expanding their fan base. The last thing they want to do is turn that around and start losing fans again. 

Perhaps the biggest issue that makes this game a “must win” is the remaining schedule. Throughout the rest of the season the Texans will face the Colts, Titans (twice), Ravens, Jets, Eagles and Chargers – all of which they could lose. They’ll pick up a few wins against the Jaguars and Broncos. Most likely they’ll pick up one against the Titans and the Chargers game too. The Eagles and other Colts game are a toss up. All in all, the Texans could realistically be looking at losing five more games -even if they get better over the bye.  If they beat the Chiefs and go into the rest of the season at 4-2, they have a better chance of taking 5 losses and maybe making the wildcard at 9-7. On the flip-side, if they take a loss against the Chiefs and drop to 3-3, they’d need a miracle to have a winning season. And that hurts to even think about. 

The Texans SHOULD win this game without too many difficulties, but usually when I feel that way they end up losing. Let’s hope that isn’t the case this week. 

http://www.houstonsportblog.com/

() FA Rank 

QB Matt Leinart

RB Arian Foster (exclusive rights)- tendered

RB Derrick Ward- resigned

FB Vonta Leach (#33) 

The best fullback in the league and a huge part of Arian Foster’s success. The Texans can’t let him go. He also had 76 career catches.

FB Justin Griffith 

WR Jacoby Jones

WR Andre Davis

TE Owen Daniels (#32)- 4 years 22 million 6 million guaranteed

When healthy he’s one of the best tight ends in the league, but he keeps tearing his ACL. One more could end his career.

OT Rashad Butler

G Mike Brisiel

G Kasey Studdard

DT Shaun Cody- resigned

DT Jarvis Green

DT DeMario Pressley- signed with Colts

DE Mark Anderson

DE Tim Bulman

OLB Zac Diles

OLB Darnell Bing 

MLB Kevin Bentley

CB Jason Allen

S Bernard Pollard

S Eugene Wilson 

P Matt Turk 

Offseason moves:

Resigned Owen Daniels

Resigned Shaun Cody

Resigned Derrick Ward

Tendered Arian Foster

Cut Eugene Wilson

Cut Andre Davis

Cut DeMario Pressley

Cut Darnell Bing

Draft

G Brandon Brooks (Miami-OH)

CB Ron Brooks (LSU)

K Randy Bullock (Texas A&M)

3-4 DE Ronnie Cameron (Old Dominion)

MLB Lavonte David (Nebraska)

S Brandon Hardin (Oregon State)

S George Iloka (Boise State)

MLB Mychal Kendricks (California)

CB Jeremy Lane (Northwestern State)

WR Mario Louis (Grambling

S Kelcie McCray (Arkansas State)

CB Lionel Smith (Texas A&M)

S Tavon Wilson (Illinois)

11. 3-4 DE JJ Watt B

Again, I would have gone Amukamara and if I were to go with a 3-4 end, I had Cameron Jordan rated higher on my board. However, I don’t mind this pick. Watt fills a need opposite Mario Williams and is one of the best available.

42. RLB Brooks Reed A

Rush linebacker was, believe it or not, a bigger need for them than cornerback. Their only real rush linebacker was Connor Barwin, a 2009 2^nd round pick who missed all of the 2010 season with an injury. Brooks Reed fits the range well and fills a giant need.

60. CB Brandon Harris A

This could be the steal of the first two rounds. Harris may be short and lack ball skills, but everyone said the same thing about Devin McCourty and a year later McCourty is a Pro Bowler as a rookie. Harris is going to be a great cornerback at the next level. He was a shutdown cornerback all last year until one bad game against Michael Floyd and Notre Dame in their bowl game. He is going to have some trouble with bigger receivers like Floyd was at the next level, but at the same time he held first round pick Jonathan Baldwin to 3 catches for 21 yards and he’s 6-4. Harris lacks athleticism and ball skills, but he makes up for that with hustle and instincts.

127. CB Rashard Carmichael A

Two cornerbacks were needed and Carmichael is a great value in the late 4^th. They may have needed something like a safety or a nose tackle before a 2^nd cornerback, but there’s no denying Carmichael’s value in the late 4^th. I had a 2^nd round grade on him.

144. S Shiloh Keo A-

Keo fits the range decently and fills a huge need at safety. He may lack athleticism and that may limit him from being a starter at safety, but there’s no denying his hustle and heart. He’ll be a great special teamer, worst case scenario.

152. QB TJ Yates B-

Backup quarterback wasn’t a huge need, but they don’t really have a solid backup and Matt Schaub has had injury problems in the past so this makes some sense. It was a little bit of a reach though, but I do like Yates as a backup long term.

214. OT Derek Newton B

They don’t really have a swing tackle behind their starters and Newton is a good value in the 7^th round. A nose tackle and maybe another safety or wide receiver were needed above a backup swing tackle, but no major argument from me here given his value.

254. RLB Cheta Ozougwu A-

They need to get two rush linebackers in this draft given how thin they were at the position. There were better rush linebackers available, but it’s not a huge reach.

Overall:

This was one of my favorite drafts. Their first 4 picks all filled needs and only Watt, in my mind, was even a minor reach. I also like the selection of Keo in the 5^th round and overall I didn’t hate any of their picks. All of them made sense. I think next year is the year that Houston finally breaks out and makes the playoffs. There’s no questions about their offense, with Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, and Andre Johnson. Their defense has always been the problem. In this draft, they spent their first 5 picks on defense and all 5 of them fit the range and made sense. They’ve also added defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, a member of the THCEC club (Terrible Head Coach Excellent Coordinator, including Mike Nolan and Josh McDaniels, among others). I think their defense will be a lot better next year and I think they’re a potential Super Bowl team next year.

Grade: A

By Jim Keller 

Should they run more?  Should they throw the ball down the field more?  How about blitzing? Yes? No?  How about a new coach, offensive coordinator or both?

Those are the questions being asked in Cowboys Nation this week after the Dallas Cowboys started the season 0-2.  And the Dallas braintrust – owner Jerry Jones & Co. – better find the answers soon because only three teams since who lost their first three games of the season since 1990 have advanced to the playoffs.

It won’t be easy this week against the rejuvenated Houston Texans, who have won six straight games dating to last season and have the No.1 scoring and yardage offense in the NFL.  

But let’s get back to the Cowboys’ offense for now because that seems to be the overwhelming topic these first few weeks. … Let me throw out some numbers.

Forty two runs (22 in Week 1 and 20 in Week 2) and 98 passes in two games! No run longer than 12 yards, no pass completion longer than 30 yards. Twelve of the 42 runs have been for two yards or less.  Since 2007, teams that ran the ball more than 22 times have won 92 percent of the games.

Therefore, the percentages seem to favor more running, and even though the offensive line is banged up, Dallas did average 4.8 yards per carry last season, second highest in the NFL, and was seventh in yards rushing.

Five of the 22 runs last week in the 27-20 loss to Chicago went for negative yards, eight for two yards or less.  And that was after Marion Barber rushed for 22 yards on the first three plays for Dallas.  Interesting note from ESPNDallas.com: On first downs, Dallas is running 31 percent of the time, 31^st in the NFL.

Because of the No. 2 passing rank in the NFL after two weeks, the Cowboys rank fourth in total offense, yet Romo & Co. have engineered just two touchdowns despite 27 first downs and 16 minutes more time of possession

Of Romo’s 98 passes, only 13 have been thrown 15 yards down the field – just over 13 percent.. Houston QB Matt Schaub has thrown 25 percent of his passes at least 15 yards down the field, and despite 29 fewer throws than Romo, he has just 52 fewer yards.

Romo is second in passing yards (656) and has been sacked just once but his adjusted yards per attempt is 5.7 which ranks 10^th and his win probability of -.44 is 30^th.  Now I’m not sure how all that is calculated, but it doesn’t bode well for the Dallas offense. He ranked sixth and ninth, respectively, in these categories a season ago.

Romo is the eighth player since 1920 to throw 98 passes in the first two games and first since Tom Brady.  These QBs combined to go 5-11.  And Romo had the highest completion percentage and second-highest passer rating (83.5) but still lost twice.

All of these numbers indicate that Dallas needs to run a little more, pass a little less, and challenge vertically if for nothing else other than to open up a little room for the running game and underneath stuff.

Despite all the big-play targets, this Cowboys’ offense reminds me most of the early-80s when Danny White took over for Roger Staubach.

White had some weapons around him and put up some pretty good numbers, but Dallas always fell short because they couldn’t convert enough with its ball-control offense.  White or somebody else always seemed to make a negative play at the worst time. This is sort of reminiscent of Romo and this cast of characters.  They have committed 18 penalties, trail 4-0 in the turnover battle and make costly mistakes or bad throws on key downs.

Dallas should get something done on offense if it can neutralize NFL sack leader Mario Williams (4) on Sunday.  Houston has surrendered 422 yards per game – most in the NFL – and Donovan McNabb threw for over 400 yards last week for Washington, more than double what McNabb threw for against the Cowboys in Week 1.

While the Dallas defense held Washington to two field goals in a 13-7 loss on Week 1, Chicago’s Jay Cutler dissected the Dallas blitz for 277 yards and three TDs. After Cutler was sacked once and repeatedly dropped to the turf in the Bears’ first three possessions, Cutler started dumping passes into the vacated blitzing linebackers territories and Chicago engineered three scoring drives and 157 yards on its last three possessions of the half.  Dallas, which has relied on pressuring QBs with linebacker and safety blitzes, curiously dialed down the pressure but to no avail.

Cutler, who is known for going down the field, was 18 of 21 with three touchdowns for a 143 passer rating on throws of 10 yards or less.

While holding both Washington and Chicago under 100 yards rushing, Dallas will need to improve upon its totals of two sacks and zero turnovers forced to keep the Texans at bay.

Last week Schaub rallied Houston from a 27-10 deficit with 332 yards passing after intermission, and his 497 total was a franchise record.  He threw a TD pass to Kevin Walter on the last play of the third quarter and hooked up with Andre Johnson on a 34-yard TD on a fourth down Hail Mary with 2:03 remaining to force overtime.  Neil Rackers’ 35-yard field goal with 3:04 left in the extra session gave Houston its first win in seven OT contests.

Schaub completed 38 of 52 balls for three touchdowns.   He was intercepted once and sacked five times.   Johnson and Walter combined for 23 catches and 302 yards, creating a big challenge Sunday for Dallas corners Terence Newman and Mike Jenkins who was carted off the field in the fourth quarter last week with a bruised knee but is expected to play.

Houston is also dangerous on the ground with Arian Foster, who rushed for a franchise-record 231 yards in a Week 1 win over Indianapolis and added 69 rushing and passing last week.

The Houston offense will be without left tackle Duane Brown, a 2008 first-round draft pick suspended this week for four games for violating the league’s performing enhancing drug policy.

The clubs have split two previous games.  Houston won 19-10 here in 2002 for a franchise-first victory and Dallas picked up a 34-6 win four years later, but the Texans thoroughly handled the Cowboys 23-7 in a preseason contest when both teams played their regulars for most of the contest.

http://respectthestar.com/

Free Agency Priorities

Safety