By Anthony Brown 

The Redskins are 3.5 underdogs to the Colts Sunday night. That’s expected.  But beating the Eagles in Philadelphia and Washington’s eye-opening win over the Packers last Sunday has the smart guys reassessing.

Stat-master Paul Bessire at Predictionmachine.com upped his assessment of the Skins. After accounting for Mike Shanahan’s tendencies and the performance of Redskins players, Bessire has the “Skins winning 44 percent of the 50,000 simulated games of the Colts. That would be unremarkable except that Bessire’s simulation had Washington winning 30 percent of those simulations.

Football Outsiders once projected the ‘Skins for nine wins and a playoff make. Their game simulations now projects 8.1 regular season wins for the Redskins. Confusing, huh?

An 8-8 record is the benchmark performance for a coach in his first year with a team. Marty Schottenheimer did that five times in his career, once with Washington (2001). Mike Shanahan is on that pace. If the Redskins upset the Colts, Football Outsider’s nine-win scenario gains currency. An upset is entirely possible. 

While the Colts have out-performed the Redskins in passing yards (1586 to 1243), Donovan McNabb’s passing yards-per-attempt is slightly higher than Peyton Manning’s (7.7 to 7.4). For all of Washington’s troubles in the passing game, they, like the Colts, rank in the NFL top 10 in net passing yards (Redskins 7th, Colts 4th).

The Redskins out-performed the Colts in rushing yards (443 to 399). Both, however, are in the bottom half of the league in rushing.

The Redskins are seriously scoring-deficient in comparison to the Colts (136 to 89). Washington overcame that in other games by playing close and running enough big plays to pull out a win. That’s the point here. We don’t want to see any big leads by the Colts.

Houston and Jacksonville needed 34 and 31 points to beat Indianapolis. Washington is not yet the scoring juggernaut we hope they become next season. Washington’s defense has to win this game.

Two weeks ago, Washington handled Michael Vick (mostly) by controlling his run to force him to pass. We don’t want Manning to pass. We want him to run. Manning is too wily to do that, but he might be pressured enough to make dumping the ball the smart thing to do. Doing that contains WRs Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie.

Do that and Washington can win this game the old fashion way: run the ball; stop the run; knock the snot out of Peyton Manning.   

http://redskinshogheaven.com/

By Anthony Brown 

The Washington Redskins finished the first quarter of the NFL season the way they will likely end the year, hovering around .500. What do we know from that?

Wins over Dallas and Philadelphia tell us the ‘Skins will play competitive ball. The loss to St. Louis (apparently better than we thought they were) tells us the ‘Skins are inconsistent. This team is likely to upset either the Packers or the Colts and lose to the Lions (apparently better than we think they are).

We are still figuring out what Mike Shanahan is making of this team. He is still building the roster.

Running back Ryan Torain signed as a free agent in April; was dropped by the team at the end of training camp; signed to the practice squad September 5; re-signed to the team roster September 25; carries seven times in the St. Louis Rams game September 26; carries 18 times against Philadelphia; will start against the Green Bay Packers Sunday.

Running back Keiland Williams made the team roster and appeared in the first two games.  He was waived October 2; signed to the practice squad October 6; re-signed to the team roster October 9, replacing wide receiver Devin Thomas who was dumped after a disappointing two years in Washington.

Undrafted free agent Brandon Banks was released by the team at the end of training camp; signed to the practice squad September 28; signed to the team roster October 2; returns the opening punt 53 yards to give the Redskins excellent field position to score.

Shanahan can speak of winning now, but he’s retooling the team. Meanwhile the rest of the league can’t quite make him out. The 3-1 Packers, who hung six sacks and about 100 quarterback hits on the Eagles, are a mere 2.5 point favorites over the Redskins. 

When the Vegas sharps can’t figure out the Redskins, what chance do the rest of us have? I’ll tell you what chance the Redskins have–a chance to beat the Packers. That’s what. There is no chance I can tell you which running backs will be on the active roster for that game.

http://redskinshogheaven.com/

Quarterback

I feel like this doesn’t even need to be said, but the Redskins cannot start Rex Grossman or John Beck at quarterback next year, unless they want to go 5-11 again. The Redskins are always aggressive in the offseason, so expect them to either sign Peyton Manning or trade up for Robert Griffin.

Wide Receiver

Santana Moss managed just 46 catches for 584 yards and 4 touchdowns last season. Sure, they had quarterback problems and he missed 4 games, but he’s also a declining player. Turning 33 this offseason, I don’t think he’s capable of being a #1 guy any more. Jabar Gaffney had a solid year last year, but is probably best off as a #2 receiver. They drafted Leonard Hankerson in the 3^rd round last year, but he tore his labrum in his hip after one good game. He’s no sure thing going forward so if a receiver makes sense, I expect them to take one fairly early, especially if they take a quarterback in the first round. Teams that draft quarterbacks in the first round often draft a pass catcher with their next pick. Meanwhile, if they sign Peyton Manning, they would also be the top contender to sign Reggie Wayne.

Middle Linebacker

London Fletcher continues to defy age, playing at a Pro Bowl caliber level even though he turns 37 this offseason. However, he won’t be around forever. In fact, he’s a free agent this offseason. Even if he’s resigned, they need a successor for him inside next to the promising young Perry Riley.

Guard

Right guard Chris Chester really disappointed in his first season with the team after getting a sizable contract in the offseason. Meanwhile, left guard Kory Lichtensteiger was playing well before he tore both his ACL and MCL. He’s expected to be ready for week 1, but obviously he’s no sure thing after a major injury. Maurice Hurt was decent at best in his absence. Mike Shanahan has always had good offensive lines so this could be a priority of his this offseason.

Cornerback

DeAngelo Hall continues to be one of the best overrated and overpaid cornerbacks in the league. Meanwhile, nickelback Kevin Barnes struggled last year. Given how frequently 3 wide receiver sets are being used in the NFL, they probably want more cornerback depth.

Safety

The safety position is a major question mark for them next season. Reed Doughty struggled last season, especially in coverage. LaRon Landry is better, but he’s a free agent with questionable long term health. They need someone else in the mix.

Offensive Tackle

Trent Williams is a promising young player when he’s not being suspended for marijuana use. However, right tackle Jammal Brown really struggled last year. He hasn’t been the same since a major injury in 2009. They signed him to a large contract and are expected to keep him at right tackle next year, but they probably want someone to push him at the very least.

Center

Will Montgomery is a mediocre player at center. This is another place where they could look for an upgrade on their offensive line. They should find at least competition in the mid to late rounds or in free agency.

3-4 Defensive End

The Redskins’ two big money signings on their defensive line, Stephen Bowen and Barry Cofield, played pretty well this season on their 3 man defensive line. Adam Carriker was the weak line on the line. He wasn’t awful or anything, but he could be upgraded. He’s also a free agent. Jarvis Jenkins was their 2^nd round pick last year so if he’s healthy, he could be the guy here.

Free Agency Priorities

Quarterback

Rex Grossman or John Beck? John Beck or Rex Grossman? That is the question in Washington and, trust me, there’s no right answer, unless the question is, which quarterback gives us the best chance to get the #1 overall pick and Andrew Luck in 2012. Unfortunately, Mike Shanahan seems to be stubborn that these are his guys. Either that or he really wants Andrew Luck (not necessarily a bad idea).

Offensive Tackle 

Jammal Brown was their best offensive lineman down the stretch, after he was healthy. Unfortunately, he’s also a free agent. If they don’t resign him, they’ll need to find another right tackle. 

Guard 

Guard was another huge problem for them. With so many needs, they weren’t able to address this need in full through the draft. Maybe they’ll look at guard through free agency. 

Draft Needs 

Quarterback

Mike Shanahan benched Donovan McNabb for Rex Grossman. This angered McNabb who does not want to be back next year, so they will likely trade or release him. This leaves them with Rex Grossman at quarterback. Grossman went 70 for 126 (55.6%) for 840 yards (6.7 YPA), 7 touchdowns, and 4 picks and overall didn’t show himself to be anything more than the bust everyone thought he was before the season, despite facing 2 of the 4 worst pass defenses in the league in his 3 starts (Dallas, Jacksonville). They’ll target a new quarterback in the offseason, likely someone through the draft.

Wide Receiver

Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly were both drafted in the 2^nd in 2008 with hopes that one would step up as a receiving threat opposite Santana Moss. Neither has. In fact, they started Joey Galloway for a bit last year before benching the 38 year old receiver for undrafted rookie Anthony Armstrong. Armstrong was always good for one or two big plays per game, but is not consistent enough to be a starter.

Drafted Leonard Hankerson (#79),  Drafted Niles Paul (#155), Drafted Aldrick Robinson (#178) 

3-4 Defensive End

Albert Haynesworth probably won’t be back next year, barring a miracle recovery of the relationship between him and Coach Mike Shanahan. This team ranked 26^th against the run. Also, no defensive lineman had more than 2.5 sacks and the team as a whole only had 29.

Drafted Jarvis Jenkins (#41) 

Running Back

Ryan Torain might be their lead back of the future, but he’s often injured. Clinton Portis is done and Keiland Williams didn’t stand out in limited action as a starter. Shanahan loves drafting running backs in the mid to late rounds.

Drafted Roy Helu (#105), Evan Royster (#177) 

Nose Tackle

Albert Haynesworth was supposed to be their nose tackle. That didn’t happen.

Drafted Chris Neild (#253) 

Cornerback

They ranked 28^th against the pass. They need a cornerback of the future opposite DeAngelo Hall and maybe some depth. Rumors say they could throw 100+ million at Hall’s former teammate, the recently released (for financial reasons), Nnamdi Asomugha.

Drafted Dejon Gomes (#146), Drafted Brandyn Thompson (#213)

Rush Linebacker

They had only 29 sacks. 2^nd year former first round pick Brian Orakpo is a keeper with 8.5 sacks this year and 11 in 2009 as a rookie. However, soon to be 32 year old Andre Carter seems out of gas opposite him. Carter only had 2.5 sacks, which was tied for 2^nd on the team (just shows how bad their pass rush is).

Drafted Ryan Kerrigan (#16) 

Safety

At the very least, they need a safety for depth purposes. They could use an upgrade across from LaRon Landry.

Signed OJ Atogwe 

Middle Linebacker

Right now it doesn’t look like the soon to be 36-year-old London Fletcher will ever slow down, but eventually he will and they’ll need a replacement for him. 2010 4^th round pick Perry Riley could be a candidate.

Guard

The problems of Washington’s terrible offense line, 43 sacks allowed, start on the inside. Outside, Jammal Brown is good when healthy and Trent Williams is developing, but inside they lack talent.

Drafted Maurice Hurt (#217) 

Center

Casey Rabach could easily be replaced. He was one of the worst starting centers in the league last year. 

() FA Rank 

QB Rex Grossman

RB Clinton Portis

WR Santana Moss 

OT Jammal Brown (#28)

Brown missed all of 2009 with an injury and struggled early in 2010 before settling down late in the season. He was one of the best left tackles in the league in 2008 before he got hurt.

OT Stephon Heyer

G Derrick Dockery

G Will Montgomery

RLB Andre Carter

RLB Chris Wilson 

MLB Rocky McIntosh 

MLB HB Blades

CB Carlos Rogers

CB Philip Buchanan 

S Reed Doughty 

Offseason moves:

Signed OJ Atogwe

Cut Clinton Portis

Cut Derrick Dockery

Draft 

By Anthony Brown 

The 4-3 Washington Redskins visit the hapless 1-5 Detroit Lions. You figure the Redskins will win this game. After all, they now have Mike Shanahan, a Super Bowl coach; while the Lions have… one win is six tries. 

Don’t fall for that trap. Reputations won’t be on the field Sunday. Talent will be. The talent on the field for the Redskins and the Lions are a near match and that’s why the sports books have made Detroit three-point favorites to win on their home field. Detroit earned it.

Washington’s NFC East rivals Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants have already faced Detroit. Those teams needed 35 and 28 points respectively to beat the Lions and even then had to hold on for the win. Washington has yet to score more than 27 points in any game. The Redskins beat the Lions’ NFC North rivals Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears in low scoring affairs.

Defense and low scoring may be the key to the game. Hold the Lions to under 21 points. Stay close, then maybe the Redskins pull the game out in the end.

Did I mention that the Eagles and Giants beat the Lions when Detroit’s starting quarterback, Matthew Stafford, was out with an injury? Stafford expects to return for the ‘Skins game. He figures to be a tad rusty. The Lions’ performance did not fall off much with Shaun Hill at quarterback. With or without Stafford, this team can score.

Lions rookie Jahvid Best is well named. His 5 touchdowns and 534 yards from scrimmage is the best performance of all NFL rookies. Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson is a beast.

The media writers will focus on Johnson versus Redskins cornerback DeAngelo Hall. They will (over)hype Donovan McNabb versus Stafford. The real battle in this game will be the Redskins offensive line versus the Lions defensive front seven, especially Redskins rookie left tackle Trent Williams versus DE Kyle Vanden Bosch and DL Ndamukong Suh. Tell me who wins that contest and I’ll tell you who will win.

The game figures to be highly entertaining between two evenly matched teams. The outcome is not predictable.

Pick-’em.     

Go back to Redskins Fan Spot 

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By Anthony Brown 

When the Redskins lost to the lowly St. Louis Rams, for the second time in the last three contests, they became everybody’s favorite homecoming opponent.  You know that team. You circle the date you play on the calendar and mark it “win.” 

The Redskins are six point underdogs when they visit the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday. The homecoming angle everyone speaks of is the return of Donovan McNabb. McNabb will not face Michael Vick, of course. Washington’s defense will. Are they up to the task?

Redskins players hint that a safety, probably LaRon Landry, or a defensive back will spy Michael Vick to force him to throw in an unnatural motion or to throw his timing off, anything except flush him from the pocket. Elusive Vick has a habit of embarrassing defenses that try this.

But the Eagles offensive line is suspect. They have allowed 14 sacks and 27 quarterback hits; both are league highs.  The Eagles early opponents attacked by the blitz. The Redskins try to bring pressure by rushing four of anyone in the front seven in their new 3-4 alignment–the better to collapse the pocket while containing Mr. Vick.

The Eagles were comfortable trading McNabb, to the Redskins no less, for draft picks because Vick and Kevin Kolb provided strength at that position. The Redskins are delighted to have him. There were not enough draft picks or free agents to fix all of Washington’s deficiencies in one year. When there are deficiencies at wide receiver and questions about the offensive line, McNabb is the perfect one-man band-aid.

Questions about the receivers remain, but Washington’s line has held up better than Philadelphia’s. Depth is the issue. Talent falls off if the starters are out for long. Washington’s first round rookie tackle Trent Williams is a game-time decision.

McNabb distributes the ball distributes the ball to tight ends, mostly Chris Cooley, and backs, mostly Mike Sellers, to make up for poor wide receiver play. Joey Galloway has shown speed, but poor hands on deep patterns. The Skins got away from the ground game in the St. Louis game. They would be wise to stick with it against the Eagles, if only to keep Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Macklin, and LeSean McCoy on the bench.

The media focuses on McNabb vs. Vick. The more interesting comparative is Philadelphia’s approach to building a roster. You couldn’t find a more divergent approach to Washington’s. The Snyderskins are renowned–and laughed at–for acquiring big name players in a “win now” approach to winning, without winning titles. So the Redskins tend to have an older team.

The Eagles constantly renew themselves by trading productive players for draft picks, then using those picks on young players. Before McNabb, the Eagles moved or released Duce Staley, Brian Dawkins, Jeremiah Trotter, Troy Vincent and Brian Westbrook before they sopped up salary cap space.  The result is that the Eagles are always in the conversation for the playoffs. They may have the most dynamic offense in the NFC East.

The Redskins have a shot to beat the Eagles. This game will be closer than most expect. Football is played emotionally. The emotion of McNabb’s return may carry the day for Washington.   

http://redskinshogheaven.com/ 

CB Omar Bolden (Arizona State)

DT Michael Brockers (LSU)

QB Aaron Corp (Richmond)

QB Robert Griffin (Baylor)

QB Andrew Luck (Stanford)

S Kelcie McCray (Arkansas State)

OT Donald Stephenson (Oklahoma)

CB Keith Tandy (West Virginia)

S Phillip Thomas (Syracuse)

RB Robert Turbin (Utah State)

16. RLB Ryan Kerrigan A-

I had Blaine Gabbert 10^th to Washington and Ryan Kerrigan 16^th to Jacksonville. I got the right players, but not the right teams. I’ll still count that as a win. I had a high grade on Kerrigan and he’s going to work his ass off both on and off the field and I really doubt he busts, but I’m not totally comfortable with him in a 3-4. It’s not as if he didn’t fill a major need, however. Other than Brian Orakpo, no one had more than 2.5 sacks for them last year. That’s pretty bad.

41. NT Jarvis Jenkins C

Jarvis Jenkins fills a need, but it would be very hard for them not to fill a need with this position. They needed almost everything coming into this draft. I think Jenkins was a reach at this point.

79. WR Leonard Hankerson A

Excellent pick. Hankerson fills a major need for them, even compared to their other needs and I think he was a steal by at least a round. I had a borderline first round grade on him. This kid is going to be great and an impact player from the get go.

105. RB Roy Helu C-

Of all their needs, I don’t think running back was a major one. Ryan Torain and Keiland Williams are decent players and it’s not like the running back position is an extremely important position anymore. Helu was also a reach at this point.

146. CB Dejon Homes D

Of all their needs, cornerback was a pretty minor one and I didn’t have Homes in my top 300 so this is a pretty big reach by my book.

155. WR Niles Paul B

Another wide receiver? Well they do need some more depth at the position and with all of their trade downs they had the necessary picks to make a pick like this and Paul fit the range, but they could have done better things with this pick. They needed another defensive lineman, a quarterback, and some offensive line help before they needed a 2^nd wide receiver.

177. RB Evan Royster F

Another running back? I wasn’t thrilled with them taking one the first time and I don’t like this decision either. Royster is an even bigger reach than Helu was at 105.

178. WR Aldrick Robinson C-

A third receiver? What? At least Robinson fits the range somewhat and they did need some depth, but I’m not really a fan of this decision.

213. CB Brandyn Thompson C-

Another cornerback wasn’t really needed and Thompson was a reach at this point as I had him outside my top 300.

217. G Maurice Hurt A-

Finally some offensive line help. Hurt is a minor reach, but they really needed the depth and this is the late rounds.

224. RLB Markus White C

Another rush linebacker? I guess you can never have enough pass rushers, but they did have other needs and White was a bit of a reach at this point.

253. NT Chris Neild A

Neild filled a major need of theirs on the defensive line. Jenkins could play nose tackle as their 2^nd round pick, but he could also move to end if need be, another need of theirs.

Overall:

I like how they were able to trade down so many times and end up with 12 picks, especially trading down in the first round when they weren’t sold on Blaine Gabbert (I don’t blame them). However, how do you have 12 picks and not address the quarterback position at all. Quarterback was their biggest need heading in. I know this was a weak quarterback class, but they didn’t even bring in a developmental quarterback. Rex Grossman is not the long term solution and there’s no guarantee they can get an elite quarterback next year. The Redskins plan on using John Beck as their starter next year…so actually they might be guaranteed to can get an elite quarterback next year. They also had a good amount of picks that were either reaches and/or didn’t fill major needs.

Grade: C-