Updated 9/4/10 (Preseason)
All records projected
Awful
32. St. Louis Rams 2-14
The Rams definitely took a step in the right direction by taking a franchise quarterback in Sam Bradford first overall. However, Rams fans aren’t going to see that move pan out right away. Rookie quarterbacks struggle unless they have three things, experience in a Pro Style offense, a good supporting cast, and 30 or more starts in college. Bradford has none of those three things. Plus, he hasn’t been in a game on any level since last October thanks to an injury. He’ll likely be rusty. That doesn’t mean he won’t pan out ever. Plenty of quarterbacks have had awful rookie years and gone on to become Pro Bowlers, even future Hall of Famers in Peyton Manning’s case. He just won’t be good this year. And if they start AJ Feeley over Bradford, that’s great, history shows quarterbacks who sit in their rookie year pan out more, but don’t expect Feeley to win them a ton of games either.
Now, this team is more than a quarterback. Let’s talk about their supporting cast, a thing I called bad when I mentioned that Bradford didn’t have a strong supporting cast, essential to a rookie quarterback’s success. Steven Jackson is great. He’s also hurt and couldn’t carry them to more than 1 win last year when he was healthy. Their offensive line is banking on rookie Rodger Saffold having a good first year and Jason Smith panning out in his 2nd year in the league. Injuries have decimated their offensive front so far in their offseason, which is not a good sign.
Their defense isn’t good. Their best chance at any life defensively is their pass rush. Head coach Steve Spagnoulo has done great things in the best with pass rushes and they still have a lot of untapped potential in former 2nd overall pick Chris Long. They also drafted a few interesting pass rushing options in the mid rounds this year, but overall, their pass rush isn’t making me jump out of my seat.
Their linebackers aren’t good, their defensive tackles aren’t good, their secondary isn’t good, there simply aren’t enough good players on this defense for them to be anything for other teams to fear. Don’t underestimate losing OJ Atogwe either. Their defense went from bad to worse after he got hurt last year and now it looks like the free agent won’t be back next season.
31. Buffalo Bills 3-13
There’s an old saying that says, if you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse. That is true in the NFL, especially in the AFC East, where everyone figures to be a little bit better this year, whether it be the Patriots with a fully healthy Tom Brady and a fully motivated Randy Moss, or the Jets with their additions at many spots on the football field, or the Dolphins and the addition of Brandon Marshall and the maturation of Chad Henne.
The Bills pretty much stayed pat this offseason, at least where it matters. New regimes normally like to come in and bring in their own quarterback. This regime seems to think all this team needed was a simple scheme change. Trent Edwards behind this offensive line is a tried and failed approach. Ryan Fitzpatrick behind this offensive line is a tried and failed approach. Brian Brohm may have something, but if they thought he did, I don’t understand why you don’t upgrade the line. This line was hands down the worst in the league last year.
I don’t think Chan Gailey’s “genius” scheme is going to be enough to turn their offense around. Notice I put genius in quotation marks. Gailey’s only NFL experience since 2001 was as the offensive coordinator of the Kansas City Chiefs in 2008, a team that went 2-14 and ranked 26th in the league in points per game scored and 28th in the league in yards per passing attempt.
I don’t understand why they waited until the 5th to draft an offensive lineman and the 7th to draft a quarterback. CJ Spiller is a fine player and all, but if their quarterback and their line aren’t playing well, their running game isn’t going the best it could be. Besides, it’s not like they struggled running the football last year. They were one of the best in the league and they still only won 6 games. Their defense could be alright, but if their offense isn’t playing well and the defense stay off the field, their defense isn’t going to be able to play as well as they should be able to play. The team is far from competing in this tough division.
30. Kansas City Chiefs 3-13
This team added some decent players through the draft, but this team is still going to struggle to pressure the opposing quarterback, protect their quarterback, and, thanks to a mediocre supporting cast on offensive, their quarterback play should once again be mediocre, as it was last year. That’s not how you win football games. They will once again be one of the worst teams in the NFL until they can do those things well, even if Eric Berry makes the Pro Bowl this year.
A full season of Jamaal Charles also helps, but they were only 3-6 in games he started last year. That just goes to show you that a good running game doesn’t mean much if you can’t get big gains and first downs through the air and they really struggled with that last year, as they should this year.
Better luck in 2011
29. Denver Broncos 4-12
I don’t like Denver this year and I’ll tell you why. I know what you’re thinking, didn’t you predict they’d be bad last year and then they proved you wrong and even when they were playing well to begin the year, you still didn’t think it was a good team? Most of that is true, except they didn’t prove me wrong and they didn’t play well to begin the year.
They started out 6-0, one of those wins was on a freak catch that bounced off a defender, a catch that I’m willing to bet Brandon Stokley couldn’t make again in a game 95 times out of 100. Another was in overtime, a win that, if the coin had flipped the other way to start the overtime, they could have easily lost. The Broncos won on a long field goal after winning the coin flip, while Tom Brady had to sit on the sideline and watch. They also beat Dallas by a field goal, which is kind of an impressive win, but considering the Cowboys weren’t playing well at the time, and it was only a field goal, I don’t think it’s as impressive as it sounds when people say they beat the division winning Cowboys. They beat Cleveland and Oakland, two teams that ended 5-11. Their most impressive win was against San Diego and when I say San Diego, I mean a 2-2 Chargers team that struggled out of the gate, not the 13-3 one that ended the season very strongly and destroyed Denver in a rematch.
Now, of course, if they had continued to play well after that, then I would have seen them as legitimate. But the fact that they went 2-8 after their 6-0 start really shows that they weren’t as good as their record showed to start the year and adds a lot of life to the word “fluke” I used to describe some of their early wins. They could have easily been 4-2 or 3-3 to start the year last year, if a coin had flipped the other way or Stokley hadn’t made that catch or they had caught Dallas or San Diego at their best.
This year, I actually think they’ll be worse. Brandon Marshall was their top deep threat last year. Without him, this is a short throw offense only. We saw them try to be a short throw offense only, without Marshall week 17 last year, and they got destroyed by the lowly Chiefs. They picked off Orton three times on short throws, because the Broncos were becoming extremely predictable. Two of those picks were returned for scores, fueling a 44-24 Chiefs win.
Another thing with the short throw offense, it limits your running game because the defense can come out in an eight man box and still effectively guard the pass. Kyle Orton is simply not as good of a quarterback as Marshall made him look last year and his receiving corps is not going to help him out this year much. His top 4 receivers are two rookies, a player in Eddie Royal who struggled mightily last year, and a journeyman in Jabar Gaffney. His tight end is an undrafted 2nd year player out of Central Arkansas. They won’t help him as much as he needs. Also, remember Ryan Clady’s injury. That hurts Kyle Orton a lot as well. Unless Brady Quinn or Tim Tebow win the job and become a top 15 quarterback, this is not a good offensive bunch, and I can’t see Tebow doing that this year or Quinn doing that ever.
Defensively, they’re improved this year, but the loss of Mike Nolan as defensive coordinator hurts. Their age in the secondary hurts as well as they are projected to start 4 defensive backs over the age of 30 again. We saw last year how those guys tired out late in the season. That could happen this year, only worse. Justin Bannan and Jarvis Green are solid players and decent signings but shouldn’t be anything more than strong backups on a playoff team (which is were they were just that last year). Jamal Williams is also a solid player, but he’s getting up there in age. Their front 3 will be better this year, but still not as good as they need it to be. The loss of Andra Davis at middle linebacker also hurts their front 7 and I don’t think Elvis Dumervil can quite repeat what he did last year.
Overall, their offense is not going to be good and their defense is not going to be anywhere near good enough to make up for their offense’s shortcomings. Broncos fans can hate me all they want (and they do, trust me), but I am not a believer in this team this year.
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-12
If I had to pick one of the three rookie quarterbacks who started last year, Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, and Josh Freeman, as the most improved this offseason, I’d have to go with Freeman. Reports out of Tampa rave about Freeman’s work ethic this offseason and how he’s spent a good majority of his offseason in the film room, studying last year’s film, and on the field, getting into better shape and improving his throwing mechanics. Unless he spent all that time at the Buccaneers’ facilities inefficiently, doing things other than becoming a better football player, I think he’ll be a much better football player this year. Remember, even Peyton Manning struggled as a rookie, but if you can improve in your sophomore year, no one will remember your rookie year.
That being said, that improvement might not translate to the stat sheet and the win loss record quite in the way one would expect. I expect his picks to decrease this year (18 picks in 290 throws last year), but his supporting cast isn’t as good as Mark Sanchez’s, or even Matt Stafford’s. He doesn’t have Sanchez’s amazing supporting cast. He doesn’t have Calvin Johnson. I’d even go as far as to say that Detroit’s running game and defense are better than Tampa’s. This defense should be better this year, especially against the run with the additions of Gerald McCoy and Brian Price in the first two rounds of this year’s draft, but they still lack a strong pass rush, and overall they lack talent on the defensive side of the ball.
They’ll be better this year, especially through the air offensively, but the talent isn’t there in Freeman’s supporting cast. Freeman won’t look as good as he should this year, even though close examination may show Freeman as the best quarterback in the 2009 draft class this year. Some teams have to be the worst and the Buccaneers, because of their overall lack of talent, look like a team destined to be among the lowly of the league.
Looking forward to a top 10 pick
27. Arizona Cardinals 4-12
9/4/10: Matt Leinart can’t lead a successful drive, 7 points in 9 drives, and then bitches about losing his job because he has a great completion percentage on short throws that get you nowhere and because he’s being blitzed and he feels that’s not fair and because he feels his receivers can’t run routes. Derek Anderson has been better, but only by default as this team doesn’t look like one that’s going anywhere offensively this year.
Hopefully Cardinals fans enjoyed their 2 years of playoffs, because it looks like they’ll be back to mediocrity this year. Kurt Warner was far and away the biggest reason why they had success in the past few years and now he’s retired and Matt Leinart, who was their quarterback when they weren’t very good, is back as the starter. Leinart was 274 for 489 for 3294 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 16 picks in his first two years as Arizona’s starter. That’s with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin at his disposal. Now Boldin is gone. Derek Anderson will compete with him for the starting job, but he absolutely stunk in Cleveland last year. Poor quarterback play was the reason why they stunk earlier this decade and, in what should be a very unsettling fact for Cardinals fans, they once again should have poor quarterback play.
Matt Leinart could have a bounce back year this year thanks to some time on the bench. We’ve seen it before, namely with Vince Young and Alex Smith last year. However, Leinart has been 66 for 106 for 699 yards, 1 touchdown, and 4 picks in limited action since getting benched. That’s not promising. Neither is the fact that the Cardinals, who have had a first hand look at Leinart this offseason, signed Derek Anderson, drafted John Skelton, and considered signing Marc Bulger. That’s not something a team sold on their quarterback as the guy who can take them to the playoffs does.
Now, Warner isn’t the only loss they had this offseason, just their most important. They also lost Boldin, as I mentioned. Cutting Antrel Rolle and replacing him with Kerry Rhodes also will hurt a bit. Same with the loss of Karlos Dansby, who was replaced with 2nd round pick Daryl Washington. Washington is a 228 pound linebacker who will have trouble fitting their base 3-4 scheme, should they continue transitioning to that scheme. None of those losses will hurt as much as the loss of Warner, but none of them help them at all either.
26. Cleveland Browns 5-11
9/4/10: I’ll admit I thought Delhomme was done as a solid signal caller, but he has proven me wrong this preseason. They have a lot of holes, but if Delhomme can be decent, they won’t be horrible this year as I once thought they would.
The Browns figure to be one of the worst teams in the league this year once again. They appear to be heading in somewhat the right direction, drafting a new quarterback to try to fix this mess. However, as has been said, Colt McCoy isn’t going to see the field much this year, if at all, because Mike Holmgren doesn’t feel he’s ready. This is a very smart idea considering how much better quarterbacks have been in their career if they’ve had a rookie redshirt year. With mid round picks, sitting them a year seems to be the whole way they pan out, at least when you look at the last few years with guys like Drew Brees, Matt Schaub, Chad Henne, and Kevin Kolb. I wasn’t huge on Colt McCoy coming out of school, but I like him a lot more if they sit him this year and let him learn a pro style offense and develop.
However, that leaves this year and that leaves Jake Delhomme as their starting quarterback. This is the guy who threw 18 picks to 8 touchdowns last year with Carolina. He’s been alright in the past and some might be expecting a bounce back year for him, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. His receivers aren’t going to help him out much. At least in Carolina he had Steve Smith. Here, he has Mohammed Massaqoui, Brian Robiskie, and Benjamin Watson. Good luck.
Their running game could be solid, but as we’ve seen before, that doesn’t matter much if you’re team can’t create yards through the air. Look at Tennessee. Chris Johnson rushed for 2000+ yards, but they didn’t even make the playoffs. In order to make the playoffs, you need at least a top 15 quarterback and even with a top 15 quarterback, you’d probably need a top 10, top 12 defense, which brings me to the other side of the ball.
They made some solid additions on that side of the ball this offseason, but overall I think it’s just as mediocre of a group as it was last year. Sheldon Brown helps their secondary a bit, but I don’t think any of their draft picks will have an immediate impact. They drafted 3 defensive backs, 2 of which I really didn’t like, and defensive backs take a while to develop and see the field anyway. Joe Haden will probably be their nickel back this year, but he’s not going to help them out in any huge way this year.
25. Detroit Lions 5-11
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Detroit Lions went 2-14 or 3-13 again. I wouldn’t be surprised if they won 5-7 games, I wouldn’t be too surprised if they won 8 or 9. It almost entirely will depend on Matt Stafford. Stafford wasn’t great as a rookie and the team went 2-14. That’s excusable though. He was a rookie. Even Peyton Manning struggled as a rookie. If Stafford rebounds this year and starts playing like a top 15 quarterback and the #1 pick he was, this team could be pretty good.
If 4th round pick Jason Fox can step up and become the elite blindside protector this team has lacked for years, that will only help Stafford’s cause. As will a full season of Calvin Johnson, the addition of Rob Sims to their improving, but currently still mediocre, offensive front. Having a running back like Jahvid Best also helps, as does an improved defense. There’s a good chance he becomes one of the top 15 quarterbacks in the league this year and that could get them 6-8 wins.
Of course other players need to step up on this team for them to reach their full potential for this year (8 or 9 wins). Their defensive line is banking heavily on a strong rookie season from Ndamukong Suh, a bounce back year from Kyle Vanden Bosch and Corey Williams, and a breakout year from Cliff Avril. If everything goes right there, that’ll certainly help. This team ranked 21st in the league in stopping the run last year (YPA), they could certainly be middle of the pack this year.
They’ll also be counting on a big year from 2nd year players DeAndre Levy and Zach Follett at linebacker. Their secondary remains their biggest hole, but if Amari Spievey can step up as a rookie, unlikely because rookie defensive backs tend to struggle, that’ll help their cause. A lot of things have to go right for this team to win 8 or 9 games, and for that reason I don’t feel comfortable projecting this team to do so, but a lot of things have to go wrong (er, the same) for them to be as bad as they were last year. Even if Matt Stafford struggles as much as he did last year, I’ll have to say these off season additions add an extra win to their total. I’ll put my projection somewhere in the middle of their downside (2 or 3 wins) and their upside (8 or 9 wins).
24. Seattle Seahawks 5-11
This could be a decent team if Matt Hasselbeck regains pre-2008 form. He has his best chance to do that this year, as the Seahawks, this year, have put together their best offensive front since Walter Jones last played a full season. Russell Okung is very talented, but he’s also a rookie. Rookie left tackles have been a bit of a mixed bag in recent years. Ryan Clady, Jake Long, and Joe Thomas all had great rookie years, but Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe did not. Okung is probably better than what they’ve had in the last two years, and there’s a good chance he’s a lot better than what they’ve had in recent years, but if I were a Seahawks fan, I’d still be a bit nervous about their offensive front until I saw them in action. For what it’s worth, I called Okung the most NFL ready left tackle in this draft class. Having an offensive line coach like Alex Gibbs helps, but their offensive line absolutely needs to play well for Hasselbeck to have a good year and for this offense as a whole to have a good year.
Hasselbeck is old and injury prone and threw a lot of picks down the stretch last year because of bad protection. He looked completely shell shocked behind that line. If Okung can lead this line to be at least average, Hasselbeck could put together a solid year and that could be enough to win them this weak division. His receiving corps aren’t great, but he’s done it without good receivers before. I won’t predict Hasselbeck to lead this team to an 8 or 9 win division title, but it could happen.
Hasselbeck’s supporting cast certainly won’t do him many favors. I’ve already outlined the offensive line and the receiving corps, but those two branches may actually be his most talented. Their running game is banking on 193 pound running back Justin Forsett to pick up where he left off last year, Julius Jones to have a bounce back year, and Leon Washington to come back strong from a bad leg injury. They could trade for Marshawn Lynch, but Lynch struggled some in Buffalo last year. I believe if he was running as well as he was in his first two years in the league, he wouldn’t be on the trade block, even with his off the field issues.
Their defensive line is absolutely horrible. They had 28 sacks last year, which is bad enough, but then they lost Patrick Kerney to retirement. He was their team leader with 5 last year. Unless 2008 1st round pick Lawrence Jackson can step up in his 3rd year, they’re going to have a tough time generating more sacks than they had last year.
That doesn’t bode well for a secondary that really struggled last year, mostly thanks to their bad pass rush. They gave up the 3rd most passing yards through the air last year. Their defensive tackles also don’t give them much hope either. In addition to not generating any interior pass rush, they also ranked pretty middle of the pack in terms of stopping the run, and, with their linebackers being this team’s strong point, I don’t even think we can give all the credit to the defensive tackles for doing that.
They could win this bad division, if Matt Hasselbeck turns back the clock, but his supporting cast, even with a revamped offensive front, is still mediocre and that’s not going to do him any favors. I won’t predict them to do that, but at the same time, this division is so bad that it wouldn’t surprise me. I certainly would be less surprised if they won the division than if St. Louis or Arizona won it.
23. Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11
I don’t know how a team makes themselves worse in the draft, but, at least in the short term, they did. Tyson Alualu could be a solid starting caliber player in the future, but for now, he’s a downgrade over veteran John Henderson, who was cut when they drafted Alualu. Their pass defense was atrocious last year on all levels. Their corners couldn’t cover, their safeties couldn’t cover, they had fewer sacks as a team than some individual players had. Aaron Kampman helps, but this is still going to be a very poor defensive squad unable to contain the pass.
Offensively, they should once again be just so so. Maurice Jones Drew is still a monster of a running back, but he was last year and that didn’t help them make 8+ games. It won’t this year either with all of the other teams in the NFL, for the most part, getting better this offseason, unless David Garrard has a great year at quarterback.
Probably not a playoff team
22. Oakland Raiders 7-9
The Raiders might not completely stink this year. Given the players they’ve added this offseason and the lack of talent in this division outside of San Diego, they appear likely to finish 2nd in this division this year. Jason Campbell isn’t a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback, but he’s certainly going to help this team. He was, statistically, a solid quarterback last year and he is now moving to a scheme that fits his arm strength better and, with the maturation of Louis Murphy, Chaz Schilens, and yes, even Darrius Heyward Bey, as well as the additions of Bruce Campbell and Jared Veldheer to the offensive line through the draft, he may actually have a better supporting cast on offense in Oakland than he had last year in Washington.
The only main issue with Jason Campbell is his leadership skills and maturity. For all of his solid production last year, he only won 4 games despite having a good defense on his side. Those 4 games were against 4 teams that won a combined 17 games last year. He was 2-8 in games decided by 8 or fewer points last year. That’s not a good sign of maturity. Lack of maturity and leadership does not mix well with the Raiders and that could keep them from being the 8-8 team they could be this year. Still, I think they’ll win more than 5 games for the first time since 2003.
21. Philadelphia Eagles 7-9
In a very strong division, the Eagles are the odd team out. The decision to trade Donovan McNabb may long great in the long term for the Eagles, but in the short term, it really hurts because not only do they make themselves a little worse at the quarterback position, they make a talented division foe, which was a quarterback away from being a playoff contender, a lot better at the quarterback position. I’m not saying Kevin Kolb will be bad at all, but he won’t be McNabb, at least not this year. Kolb is essentially going to be a rookie quarterback this year. He has the experience on the bench, but there are simply some things a quarterback can’t fully learn until he’s been in an NFL game or twelve.
Not to mention, this offensive line isn’t great. They were middle of the pack in terms of sacks allowed last year, but they allowed a ton of pressures. McNabb and his ability to get the ball out in the nick of time made them look a lot better than they were. Kolb probably won’t be able to do that as well, at least not right away. They were abused by the Cowboys late last season. They have to face that time twice again this year. They also have to face the Giants twice, whose pass rush I already said should be revitalized this year, and the Redskins twice, who have a good pass rush that will be able to blitz more this year, thanks to the addition of McNabb. All this spells a rough year for Kolb behind that line and that’s not going to help the young signal caller out in his first year.
Defensively, they should be a good team. One of the three defensive ends they drafted should be able to step up across from Trent Cole this year and give them another pass rusher, but the loss of Sheldon Brown, who wasn’t really replaced, in the secondary hurts. I think those two things almost cancel each other out, unless someone like Graham has a monster 10+ sack breakout year, which is unlikely. And remember, a downgrade at quarterback hurts the whole team, including the defense. They may not be able to blitz as much as they like this year if Kolb isn’t producing like McNabb was.
Could make some noise
20. Miami Dolphins 8-8
The Miami Dolphins made what was probably this division’s biggest single splash of the offseason when they went out and traded for Brandon Marshall. However, when you look up at the two teams ahead of them, the Pats and their amazing offense, and the Jets and their amazing defense, this team comes out short, based off the fact that they don’t have one thing they do extremely well, whether it be offense or defense.
Chad Henne should be better at quarterback this year, especially with Marshall, but he’ll still have to be the one leading this team and I don’t think Henne is an elite quarterback, even with Marshall, at this stage of his career. Their running game is led by the 33-year-old Ricky Williams and the injury prone Ronnie Brown so that’s not going to be something they’re going to be great at doing.
Adding Karlos Dansby to a defense that was solid last year might make you think that their is among the best in the league, but remember, they’ve lost both Joey Porter and Jason Taylor. They had 44 sacks last year, but with Porter and Taylor gone, they may have some trouble pressuring the quarterback. Cameron Wake is expected to step up as their #1 rush linebacker, but he’s inexperienced to this point in his career. Rookie Koa Misi will start opposite him and he wasn’t much of a pass rusher in college. He was mostly drafted for his athleticism and fluidity in coverage, and he’s a rookie anyway and rookie pass rushers are almost always unreliable.
This puts a lot of pressure on their secondary, which was already one of the worst in the league last year. With Gibril Wilson gone and either Chris Clemons or Reshad Jones starting at free safety, they’ll have 3 starters in the defensive backfield with one year or fewer of experience and defensive backs almost always take longer to develop than most other positions. If this team goes from a 44 sack team as they were in 2009, to a 30-35 sack team this year, that’s only going to put more pressure on their young defensive backs to perform and that’s not a recipe for stopping elite offensive attacks. Their run defense will be better this season, but not their pass defense, and this is a pass heavy league. I don’t see them competing with the top two teams in this division.
19. Houston Texans 8-8
The Texans lost 7 games last year, 5 by a touchdown or fewer, 6 by 10 points or less. You would think that a team as talented as this bunch would win a few more of those games and finally make the playoffs, but I’m going to say otherwise. First, they have one of the toughest schedules in the league with 11 games against teams that won 8 or more games last year and 13 games against teams that won 7 or more games last year.
Second, it’s not like their record in games decided by 1 touchdown or less was bad. They lost 5 by a touchdown or fewer, but they also won 5 by a touchdown or fewer. People saying this team is going to win 10 or 11 games and citing their amount of close losses are misinformed.
This wasn’t a team that got unlucky in the clutch last year. This is a team that played a lot of close games. Unless they step up and become a clutch team and start winning 60-70% of their close games, they aren’t going to be better than last year. With a tougher schedule this year, I think they’ll actually have a worse record this season than last, and once again miss the playoffs.
18. Atlanta Falcons 8-8
In many ways, the Falcons and Panthers are similar teams. I touched on some of the ways in the Panthers’ write up, but both have good young quarterbacks, good running games, good offensive lines, one very talented receiver and decent depth behind him, solid defenses that lack elite pass rushes. I have the Panthers ranked higher though because their running game is that much more potent with two talented running backs, instead of one, to keep each other fresh. The Panthers’ line is also a bit better, as is their secondary.
The Falcons do have the edge in pass rush, especially if John Abraham bounces back this year, and they have Tony Gonzalez at tight end, as well as more experience at quarterback, but overall I think the Panthers are a better team, only slightly. They also have an easier schedule. So overall, I’ll say similar makeups between the two teams, but the Panthers are more talented and have an easier schedule, and I’ll give them the edge, barely.
Close, but no cigar
17. Chicago Bears 9-7
The Chicago Bears’ offense is going to try a Mike Martz approach this year, after hiring him as their offensive coordinator. Martz has had some success in the past, but with a turnover prone quarterback like Cutler and a weak offensive line, I don’t think it’s the best scheme for them. One of the downfalls of the Martz scheme is that it causes quarterbacks to throw picks. Jay Cutler already does that well enough on his own. It’s also extremely pass heavy so defenses can blitz more often. This offensive line did alright last year, but overall lacks the talent to hold up in a Martz scheme the way you’d like it to.
All that being said, Martz should get the best out of his two pass catching backs, Matt Forte and Chester Taylor. A Martz scheme needs pass catching backs like that and they’ve got them. Martz also has had plenty of success in the past, despite the downfalls of his scheme. He turned Jon Kitna into a 4000 yard quarterback for crying out loud. He’ll help Cutler as much, if not more, than he hurts him.
Defensively, there’s no reason why they shouldn’t be better this year overall. Their secondary still has a few holes, but the addition of Julius Peppers to the defensive line will help take the pressure of off the secondary. Rookie Major Wright also figures to be an upgrade at free safety. A fully healthy Tommie Harris will help both their pass rush and their run defense and Brian Urlacher, who missed most of last year with a wrist injury, is back to solidify their defense. They’ll be better overall, but they’re still going to be looking up at the Packers and the Vikings. Those two teams are too complete right now for Chicago to overtake them.
16. Washington Redskins 9-7
The Redskins were a miserable 4-12 last year. Why? Well going 2-8 in games decided by 8 or fewer probably had a lot to do with it. A mere 4 games of 21 points or higher didn’t do them any favors either. You think having a true franchise quarterback in Donovan McNabb helps? His supporting cast on offense may not be as great as his was in Philadelphia, but McNabb has done it before with bad supporting casts. Until Terrell Owens, he didn’t have a true #1 receiver for most of his career. He’s the type of guy whose favorite target is the open one.
The offensive line may still be a question mark, because I don’t think Trent Williams is as NFL ready as some of the other tackles who went in the first round this year. Their running game is also nothing to get excited about, really, with a bunch of washed up vets passed their prime at the running back position. However, I think McNabb will be fine. If Jason Campbell can throw for 3618 yards and 15 touchdowns last year, then McNabb should be able to do at least that and actually close some games out.
Pair a better offense with a good defense and you’ll get something good. This defense has a few issues in the secondary and they are moving to a completely different scheme in the 3-4, but I think they fit it well with guys like Andre Carter and Brian Orakpo. They had 40 sacks last year despite having a stagnant offense. With more early leads, they’ll be able to blitz more. This is an extremely talented bunch, especially in the front 7. I think they’ll compete for a playoff spot this year, even in an extremely competitive NFC East.
15. New York Jets 9-7
9/7/10: Revis is back.
9/4/10: Revis is still not in camp, in fact the Jets have admitted that they don’t even know where he is, and also Calvin Pace could miss the first month of the season. Mark Sanchez is not progressing at quarterback the way he was supposed to in his 2nd year in the league, really struggling this preseason to lead drives.
In terms of non quarterback talent, I can’t think of a better team in the NFL. Their receivers, stacked, with Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes, Jerricho Cotchery, Dustin Keller. Their offensive line, one of the best in the league for what they want to do, which is run the football in your face. 2nd round rookie Vlad Duccaase should take over the overrated Alan Faneca’s spot with ease. Their running backs, three strong, with Shonn Greene, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Joe McKnight, as well as two talented fullbacks, John Conner, and Tony Richardson. Their defense, the best in the league last year, looking at the numbers.
Now they add Jason Taylor to give them some pass rush, as well as Antonio Cromartie, who, when right, gives them a 2nd shutdown cornerback, and Kyle Wilson, a rookie cornerback with a ton of promise. Hell, maybe even Vernon Gholston will step up and live up to his promise. What’s the problem, quarterback play.
Mark Sanchez didn’t play as well last year as people give him credit for, but that’s okay. He was a rookie. He threw 20 picks last year, but that’s okay, so did Peyton Manning as a rookie. The key for him will be to limit those turnovers and start leading drives with his arm. He’ll have to bounce back from a bad rookie year the way Manning did. If he can play the way he did down the stretch last year, this team is going to be tough to beat all the way to the Jerry Dome for Super Bowl 45. If he throws 20 picks, again, the Patriots are too talented offensively for the Jets to overtake them. You can’t win the 11, 12, 13, 14 games needed to win this division without at least above average quarterback play, no matter how good the rest of your team is.
Should be on the playoff bubble
14. Tennessee Titans 9-7
The Titans might be some people’s sleeper picks for this year, given their 8-2 record in games which Vince Young started last year. I’m not going that far, but I think they’ll be better than the 8-8 they finished last year. Their defense should be a little better. However, they’ll still struggle to defend the pass. Cortland Finnegan is a great cornerback, but his value is minimized because whoever they tried opposite him last year really struggled. Having a top #1 cornerback is great, but if the opposing quarterback can just pick on the opposing corner, then he doesn’t have to throw on that top corner. That’s what happened last year. Unless rookie Alterraun Verner steps up, unlikely since he’s a 4th round pick and cornerbacks take a while to develop, that’s going to happen again.
Adding Derrick Morgan to the mix at defensive end helps. I said back in April that he was the most NFL ready pass rusher in this draft class and I stand by that. I think he’ll lead all rookies, and probably his team, in sacks. Their pass rush will be solid, but not great. Having Tony Brown in the middle certainly helps. Overall, I don’t think this defensive unit will be anywhere near what we’ve come to expect from Titan defenses in the past, but better than last year’s.
The offense has its share of question marks too. Vince Young is not a top 15 NFL quarterback. His receiving corps is average at best. Their line is good, but Chris Johnson is probably not going to have as good of a year as he had last year. He led the league in carries last year. That’s a lot of work for a 200 pound running back, however young he is.
All that being said, this unit as a whole seems to find ways to win football games. You saw that 8-2 record in games Vince Young started last year. That’s no fluke. Statistically Vince Young hasn’t been a great quarterback in his career, but his win-loss record is remarkable for his career, 27-13. They’ll find a way to win more games than the paper suggests they’ll win and I think they’ll compete for a playoff spot.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7
9/4/10: Big Ben’s suspension was cut from 6 games to 4 by commissioner Roger Goddell, which should mean at least one more win for the Steelers this year. If they go 2-2 in the 4 games Ben misses, and the defense stays healthy, they could win 10+ games and go back to the playoffs.
The Steelers may have had one of the worst offseasons in the NFL, the thing, it wasn’t really their fault. Whenever you lose your franchise quarterback for 4 and probably 6 games, it’s going to hurt. There’s a chance real they could start the season 1-5 or 2-4. The good news, their defense should be better this year. I don’t think it’ll be as historically good as it was in 2008, but having a fully healthy Troy Polamalu helps. This defense gave up about 10 points more per game without Polamalu than with last year. If Polamalu is fully healthy, this defense, plus some decent play by Byron Leftwich at quarterback can keep them in some games and win them a few in Ben’s absence.
And, we’ve all seen it before, if Ben puts football first and puts everything else aside and doesn’t let it distract him or keep him out of shape and he comes back the quarterback he’s been in the past, that paired with this defense can win them 7 or 8 games in the 10 he plays (let’s assume he’ll be suspended for 6, because Roger Goddell doesn’t seem like the suspension shortening type).
However, if he lets his off the field issues distract him and get the best of him and get in his head and keep him away from the Monday to Saturday stuff he needs to do to win on Sunday, they could go 5-5 or 6-4 in those 10 games and then, forget about the playoffs, in this tough division. We all saw Ben play badly the last time he had major off the field issues.
12. San Francisco 49ers 10-6
9/4/10: Despite missing key players with minor injuries, the 49ers have looked great this preseason, especially because of the strong play of Alex Smith at quarterback. Once those players are back, as they should be for the season, they could definitely win double digit games in that weak division.
There are a lot of questions surrounding this team, all of which exist as a result of their decisions on draft day. I detailed these in my assessment of their draft, but I’ll bring them up again. I’m not saying they had a bad draft, as they got a lot of talent, but the type of talent they got is what poses these questions. What if Alex Smith is not the right choice at quarterback and cannot run a Pro Style offense? It’s a valid question. Smith’s production in a Pro Style offense in the past has fallen way short of expectations. He was decent last year, but out of a shotgun spread. After drafting two monster run blocking offensive linemen in the first round this year, it’s safe to say, they won’t be using a spread this year.
What if they brought in too many guys with questionable character? They’ve had good success in the past with Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree. However, both Taylor Mays and Anthony Davis had major work ethic concerns coming out of school, Davis going as far as to pull an Andre Smith, showing up out of shape to the Combine, and blowing off his Pro Day without telling anyone. Navarro Bowman and Anthony Dixon have been arrested. Nothing wrong with his character, but Mike Iupati is a major project. What if he becomes lazy after getting paid big money and doesn’t develop in pass protection?
What if they can’t stop anyone through the air? This is an increasingly pass heavy league and their secondary, in terms of pass coverage, leaves a lot to be desired. Nate Clements looks like he will stay at corner this year, rather than move to safety as previously rumored. He’s had good years in the past, just not the recent past, and I wouldn’t bet on him having a bounce back year this year. Shawntae Spencer is a solid #2 corner, but nothing better. Dre Bly and Walt Harris are old. Dashon Goldston, Michael Lewis, and Taylor Mays are all good safeties, but all three excel against the run and aren’t up to par in pass coverage.
Their pass rush is amazing and could be even better this year if either Manny Lawson or Ahmad Brooks steps up as a true #1 pass rusher, but can their below average coverage ability be masked by a fierce pass rush and an amazing run stopping front 7 in an increasingly pass heavy league? They did rank 4th in the league in fewest points allowed last year, but they ranked 15th in total yards last year and may not be as lucky this year. They also ranked 21st in total passing yards allowed last year, not a good sign.
They’ll run well this year. Frank Gore, assuming he stays healthy, should rank among the best in the league in total yards again this year, behind a revamped run blocking line. However, he’s not a consistent source of yards, even more so than most running backs. He had some brilliant games last year where he carried the team, but he also had 4 games of 33 or fewer yards in 13 games. That’s putting a lot of pressure on Alex Smith, who, as I alluded to before, is by no means an established top 15 quarterback in this league, especially in an under center style offense.
Because of the questions at quarterback for them and their deficiencies against the pass, I can’t call this an elite team. They’ll probably look pretty similar to what they were in 2009, in terms of wins and losses. Luckily for them, their division is so bad that the 8 wins they had in 2009 could win them this division.
11. Carolina Panthers 10-6
I’m projecting a bounce back year for the Panthers this year. Matt Moore had 5 starts last year and they went 4-1. The schedule wasn’t the hardest for them in those 5 games, Tampa Bay (win), New England (loss), Minnesota (win), New York Giants (win), New Orleans Saints without Drew Brees (win), but it’s still something that gives them hope going into this year.
Moore is not guaranteed to win the starting job, but I’m a fan of Jimmy Clausen (who reportedly already knows their playbook as well as Moore, because he ran a similar one at Notre Dame) and if Clausen wins the job, it’ll be because he is the better quarterback. Rookie quarterbacks struggle, unless they have three things, a good supporting cast (running game, offensive line, receivers, D), experience in a Pro Style offense, taking snaps from under center, and 30 or more collegiate starts. In the last 2 years, Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan, who had all three of those things, succeeded as rookies, while Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, and Matt Stafford, who lacked one or more of those things, struggled as rookies. Clausen has all three of those things so he would be fine as a rookie.
I compare Clausen’s supporting cast to Matt Ryan’s in his first year in Atlanta. Good running game, one talented receiver, strong defense, good offensive line. Carolina has the better running game and Atlanta had the better defense, but they’re similar supporting casts. If Clausen were given the ropes to this team, he should do fine.
Likewise, if Moore were the starter, he’d do fine as well. They added some more depth to their receiving corps across from Steve Smith, so his receivers are better this year than last. As long as they have that two headed attack at running back, Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, Moore, or Clausen, won’t have to do a ton at quarterback, except not throw picks.
Their defense could be a bit of an issue, especially in terms of pass rushers. Julius Peppers and his 10.5 sacks in 2009 are gone. As a team they only had 31 last year, even with Peppers. 2nd year player Everette Brown should step up this year, but I doubt he’ll be to their line what Peppers was so I’m expecting a low sacks total from them this year. Also, Brown isn’t even half the player Peppers was against the run. That hurts as well. They have good corners so this should still be a solid defensive unit, but if you want to pick out a flaw on this team, point to it and say, that’s why this is not an elite team, it’s their defensive line first, and their inexperience at quarterback second.
All in all, they have the talent to make the playoffs and win 10+ games. Look for either Moore or Clausen to do what this team did late last year and that’s keep the turnovers down, run out the clock, keep the defense fresh, and, most importantly, win football games.
Playoffs and maybe more
10. New York Giants 10-6
The bread and butter of this team since they won the Super Bowl in 2008 has been the pass rush. That’s why it was so surprising for football fans that this team had just 32 sacks last year. That was a big part of why they missed the playoffs last year. However, you look at the names on this defensive line, Justin Tuck, Mathias Kiwanuka, Osi Umenyiora, Jason Pierre Paul, they have to be able to bounce back this year. Tuck, Kiwanuka, and Osi were a great pass rushing trio just 2 years ago and the addition of a talented, albeit raw, rookie in JPP only helps. I think they’ll bounce back and have 40-50 sacks this year once again.
Another reason for them missing the playoffs last year was the inability of their secondary to tackle, having up huge plays. They added Antrel Rolle, Chad Jones, and Deon Grant into the mix, and they’ll also likely get Kenny Phillips back from injury. That will shore up their tackling, as well as their coverage, and lead to fewer big plays.
Their running game was also a big reason for them missing the playoffs last year and that’s the one area that I think is still a big question mark for them. If Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw rebound from injury plagued season, there running game should be fine. If not, that’s still an issue for them, unless someone else can step up and I don’t really see a step up type player behind Jacobs and Bradshaw on the depth chart. My guess is that the still young Bradshaw rebounds and Jacobs, getting up there in age, does not, and since Bradshaw is not a guy I see being able to carry the load because of his size, that’s not a good thing for this team.
The book on Eli Manning is pretty simple. He always will be slightly better than his supporting cast. If he has a good supporting cast, he can make them great, but he’s not the type of player who can lead a team all by himself. He needs help. He showed that last year. I think their defense will be better this year and their running game should be slightly better. Eli will also continue to build more chemistry with his young receivers, Mario Manningham, Steve Smith, and Hakeem Nicks, all three of whom were either first time starters or rookies last year. Another year with those three will only help him and this team.
9. Minnesota Vikings 10-6
9/4/10: First they lose Sidney Rice, now there are major questions about the health of Brett Favre’s ankle. This team is a clear 2nd to the Packers in that division
8/6/10: Hey, you know that whole Brett Favre retiring thing. Turns out it was pretty much a hoax. Even though no one in the media heard it straight from his mouth that he was retiring, the entire world went into a panic and assumed he was retiring because of some alleged text messages.
8/3/10: Favre has “retired.” Until he unretires, I’d say 8 wins for this team. They won 10 in 2008 with the same team essentially, but everyone in the division is now better.
I touched on the Vikings a bit in Green Bay’s write up, but I’ll elaborate here. These are Brett Favre’s 2009 stats. 4202 yards, 363 completions, 68.4 completion percentage, 7.9 YPA, 33 touchdowns, 7 picks, a 107.2 QB rating. Those yards were his 3rd highest total of his amazing career, those completions the 2nd highest (tied) total of his career, the completion percentage was a career high (by a whole 1.9%), the YPA also a career high, and those picks were a career low, by a lot. He threw 6 fewer picks last season than he had in any 16 game season of his career. That QB rating, 7.7 points higher than any season of his career.
Let’s not talk about whether or not Brett Favre is coming back. He is coming back. There is no arguing that. He hasn’t retired yet, as he does most off seasons, so I don’t even know why we’re talking about whether or not he’ll return. He had ankle surgery which was necessary for him to play in 2010. That’s not something someone does if he’s not planning on playing. He jokingly said he would return if Southern Miss’ baseball team made the College World Series. He wouldn’t have done that if he hadn’t made up his mind about returning. Brett Favre is coming back.
But, even though he is coming back, to expect a soon to be 41 year old quarterback to match a season in which, arguably, was the best season of his amazing career across the board, is crazy. That and the Packers being a better team, as well as the possible suspensions of Pat and Kevin Williams, make this team slightly worse overall than last year, and my projected record will show that.
Dark Horses
8. Cincinnati Bengals 10-6
9/4/10: TO stretching the field is exactly what this team didn’t have last year and now that TO has looked significantly better than the player we saw in Buffalo last year, the Bengals don’t have many weaknesses on either side of the ball. The have a strong defense, led by one of the best cornerback tandems in the league, a strong running game with Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott, field stretching receivers, as well as solid possession ones like Jordan Shipley and Jermaine Gresham, a quarterback who can make all the throws needed, their only two potential downfalls are their offensive line and their ridiculously tough schedule.
The Bengals spent their entire offseason trying to figure out some way to bring Carson Palmer out of the funk he was in late last year. They had the right idea to try to find some more big play receivers to compliment Chad Ochocinco. They brought in Antonio Bryant, Jordan Shipley, and Dezmon Briscoe. I didn’t like the Bryant signing because of how much they paid him and because of how Bryant has a reputation for not trying hard in non-contract years. His two best seasons in his career have both been contract years, and it’s not even close between those two years and the rest of his career. He’s also coming off of an injury plagued season.
Shipley and Briscoe have some promise, but rookie receivers notoriously struggle early so I don’t think they can be counted on. Same with rookie Jermaine Gresham. Palmer may have a slightly better year this year than last year, but not a whole lot. Their schedule is tougher this year and they also won 6 of their 10 games last year by 7 or fewer points. What are the chances they do that again? I also think they showed late last year that they weren’t really as good as we thought they were to start the year. I think they’ll have a slightly worse year this year than last.
7. Baltimore Ravens 10-6
The Baltimore Ravens’ offense has a chance to be one of their best this decade. They haven’t really had a true elite franchise quarterback in a long time, but Joe Flacco has put together two very solid years in his first two seasons as a pro, and with the additions of Anquan Boldin, Donte Stallworth, Ed Dickson, and Dennis Pitta to the receiving corps, he looks poised to break out this year and become, at the least, a top 15, if not top 10 or 12, NFL quarterback. Their running game with Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, and LeRon McClain will once again be one of the best in the league.
Actually, the unit with the most questions this year may be their defense. How will Ed Reed do coming off of an injury plagued season? Is this the year Ray Lewis finally shows his age? How will Terrell Suggs do coming off of a bad year? Will he be able to give their pass rush the spark it needs? All in all, I think this should be one of the best teams in the NFL again this year and they will probably play better than the 9-7 they were last year, with their offseason additions, and the situation going on with Ben Roethlisberger’s suspension in Pittsburgh.
6. San Diego Chargers 11-5
9/4/10: Key holdouts Marcus McNeil and Vincent Jackson may hold out the entire season. Jackson is replaceable by Malcom Floyd, but the Chargers have yet to find a halfway decent replacement for McNeil, guarding Rivers’ blindside.
The Chargers have a cakewalk of a schedule this year. The Chargers play a total of 4 playoff teams from last year, one of whom, Arizona, lost their quarterback in the off season. The Chargers always start slow, but I can’t see that happening this year. Look at their first 6 games, Kansas City, Jacksonville, Seattle, Arizona, Oakland, and St. Louis. This is still a very talented team. They won 13 games last year without being able to run the football at all. With the addition of Ryan Matthews, they should be able to run a lot better this year. If anything they won’t be worse on the ground because, well, they can’t be worse on the ground. It’s not possible.
However, once again it doesn’t really matter what they do in the regular season. They win 11, 12, 13, 14 games every year seemingly. That won’t change this year. They have to show up in the playoffs this year and until they do that, I won’t predict them to do that. They just choke in the playoffs way too often.
5. Dallas Cowboys 11-5
In terms of pure offensive weapons, I don’t think anyone has more to work with than Tony Romo. He has two legitimate starting running backs in Felix Jones and Marion Barber, and Tashard Choice isn’t too bad either. He has one of the best receivers in the league, Miles Austin, a talented rookie in Dez Bryant, a motivated Roy Williams, though it remains to be seen whether or not that motivation will be enough for him, and Patrick Crayton, assuming he doesn’t get traded, isn’t a bad #4 reciever. He also has one of the best receiving tight ends in the game in Jason Witten and young Martellus Bennett isn’t too bad either.
However, that doesn’t necessary translate directly to a Super Bowl. It certainly makes them contenders, but there are still questions on this offense. Doug Free will be their left tackle. Any time you have a guy who is pretty much a complete unknown at the 2nd most important position on the field, you have to be worried a bit. The rest of their offensive front is older than 30 and really broke down late last year. They also don’t have a ton of depth on the line, which showed when a couple starters went down against the Vikings. They drafted rookie Sam Young, but I think they needed to do a little more in terms of adding depth this offseason. Then there’s the question of Tony Romo. He stepped up last December and led this team to the playoffs and eventually to their first playoff win in 14 years, but there are still a few maturity concerns with him. Another playoff run should alleviate those, but for now, there’s a fairly noticeable difference on that level between him and guys like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Brett Favre.
Defensively, they should be fine as a unit again. DeMarcus Ware is still the best 3-4 outside linebacker in the game, hands down, and should rack up a ton of sacks, pressures, and quarterback hits. He and Jay Ratliff will take a lot of pressure off of a secondary that has a few question marks. Like Doug Free, new starting free safety Alan Ball is a relative unknown, but unlike Free, Ball is not playing a position at which inexperience would be worrisome. Talented corners like Terrence Newman and Mike Jenkins would be able to decently mask any deficiencies in coverage that Ball would have. They also have a talented rookie safety in Akwasi Owusu-Ansah to step in at safety if they need it. He can also play some corner.
All in all I think this should be one of the better teams in the league this year, but I’m not ready to make them my Super Bowl pick or anything like that just yet. Their regular season win total actually might not completely reflect how talent a team this is, considering how talented their division and their schedule is. Still, expect double digit wins and a playoff appearance and possibly a few playoff wins for this team. At the same time, I wouldn’t be too surprised if they ended up with the Super Bowl trophy when it’s all said and done.
4. New England Patriots 11-5
New England’s offense last year wasn’t what he have come to expect from them. However, a lot of that can be blamed on Tom Brady’s health. Whether it was trying to get his feet under him early in the season, after coming back from a major injury, or bruised ribs, or a broken finger, or a phantom shoulder problem, he wasn’t quite right most of the season. When he was right, he was right. He destroyed Tennessee. He destroyed Jacksonville, even though injuries, so we know he can still put the points on the board in big ways.
His receiving corps this year are actually looking pretty underrated, if you can believe it. Randy Moss was a top 5 receiver last year, despite injuries and not trying 100%. This year, he’s fully motivated, in his contract year. Torry Holt will probably be lining up opposite him. Holt hasn’t been his same self the past few years, but having Marc Bulger and David Garrard as his quarterbacks probably had a lot to do with that. Julian Edelman will be a solid replacement for Wes Welker, for however long he’s out, and don’t sleep on Welker’s ability to get healthy. He reportedly practiced at 75% as recently as this week, less than 5 months after tearing his ACL and MCL. If that’s true, Welker being ready for the opener doesn’t seem like a stretch. Add in a pair or talented rookie tight ends, and Brady’s got some weapons to work with. By all indications, their offense should be as good this year, if not better, than most years over the past 8-10 years.
However, this defense won’t even be close. The Patriots won championships as much with smash mouth defense as they did with a big offense. Richard Seymour, Tedy Bruschi, Rodney Harrison, Ty Law, Junior Seau, Mike Vrabel, Willie McGinest, those guys are all long gone. This defense has some nice players, Leigh Bodden, Jerod Mayo, Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Brandon Merriweather, rookie rush linebacker Jermaine Cunningham, but, as you can see, it’s just not the same. They lack those proven players of their Super Bowl winning teams. Now, Miami and New York, they’re coming up fast. Both of those teams are very talented. The Patriots aren’t going to be able to win this division with ease, though I give them a slight edge because of how important the quarterback position is in the NFL.
Elite runner ups
3. New Orleans Saints 12-4
The Saints won the Super Bowl last year, and they stayed relatively pat this offseason. So why aren’t they the favorites going into this year in my mind? Well, the first reason is that they won the Super Bowl last year. Repeating in sports is getting harder and harder to do. Last time it happened in the NHL, 1997-1998, last time in the NBA 2001-2002, last time in the 1999-2000, last time it happened in the NFL 2004-2005. It’s just not something that happens very often in sports, even when teams stand pat after winning a Super Bowl. Whatever reason, the players don’t try as hard because the already have a ring, they didn’t put in the work in the offseason because they got cocky after winning a title, they won’t sneak up on anyone, the entire league spend the entire offseason building their team to matchup to defeat them, we just don’t see repeat titles as much as you’d expect.
Another reason, they did lose some players. Mike Bell was a solid #2 back that took the pressure off of Pierre Thomas and his dangerous running style. Thomas will have to take on more of a load this year and with the way he runs, that could mean injuries, which means a struggling running game. They also lost Scott Fujita, a starter on their defense.
My last reason, I’ve said it before, if you aren’t getting better, you’re getting worse. They didn’t sign any big free agents. Their biggest free agent addition may have been Alex Brown. They drafted a cornerback in the first round. Cornerback was not a position of immediate need so 1st round pick Patrick Robinson probably won’t see a lot of the field this year, unless there are injuries to the top 3 guys on the depth chart, in which case they have other issues. Charles Brown was drafted in the 2nd to be their franchise left tackle of the future, but not of the present. Jimmy Graham was drafted in the 3rd as a tight end of the future. They didn’t draft anyone that’s going to help them in a big way right away. The Colts added Jerry Hughes through the draft, to give themselves more defensive end depth, which, arguably, is why they lost the Super Bowl last year. They didn’t have the depth at defensive end. The Packers will be better this year. The Cowboys will be better this year. The Patriots, barring more injuries to Brady, will be better this year. The Saints, based on their offseason, won’t be.
Now, am I going to project this team to win a ton of games? Yes. Their offense is a machine and they should be good, barring a Madden Curse related injury to Drew Brees, for at least 11 wins this year, likely more.
2 Indianapolis Colts 13-3
The Colts have become synonymous with consistency in the NFL. They did exactly what they needed to do this offseason, resign their free agents, most notably Gary Brackett, and draft well. Some of their mid round draft picks were head scratchers for me a bit, but their first round pick of Jerry Hughes was brilliant. This team may actually be better this year. They really lacked defensive end depth last year behind the starters Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. When Freeney was hurt in the Super Bowl, they struggled and consequently lost. With Hughes, lack of depth is no longer an issue.
Their offense should be as good as we have come to expect it to be and this team should once again be among the best in the league. Barring a Peyton Manning injury, I would be very surprised if this team didn’t win 12 or more games once again. I can’t guarantee a Super Bowl or even another Super Bowl appearance for this team because there’s no shortage of talented teams who could beat them in a single playoff game this year, but fortunately for Colts fans, we can all expect more of the same from Peyton and co.
The Favorite
1. Green Bay Packers 14-2
9/4/10: A healthy Donald Driver only adds to Aaron Rodgers weapons. You would have a hard time finding a more explosive offense than this one and that defense isn’t too bad either.
Here is my sleeper team of the year. The Green Bay Packers. The Packers were a mere 11-5 last year, but a lot of that had to do with their offensive line struggles in the first 8 games of the season. Through those 8 games, Aaron Rodgers took 37 sacks and they went 4-4. Actually, for a quarterback under pressure as much as he was, it was amazing that he led them to a .500 record. On average, he was sacked once every 7.1 attempts over those 8 games. Over a complete season, that would have ranked dead last in the NFL, with the next closest team being the lowly Bills at 9.6 attempts per sack.
However, in the next 8 games, he only took 14 sacks and the team went 7-1, with that one loss coming by 1 point to the Pittsburgh Steelers. In those 8 games, they gave up a sack on average every 20.8 attempts, which would have ranked 8th in the league last year. Those last 8 games were no fluke. Those happened to be the only 8 games that offensive tackles Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher played in. Clifton and Tauscher are both back this year and they drafted Bryan Bulaga in the first round as insurance in case one of those two goes down again. Bulaga could also start at guard this year, giving them another offensive line upgrade, if they choose to make him a guard and get him some experience, before moving him to tackle long term, whenever need be.
I think it’s safe to say, this offensive line will be a lot closer to that 8th ranked offensive line they were in the 2nd half, rather than the dead last ranked offensive line they were in the 1st half, even if injuries do strike again. I go into more detail about how almost all good teams have good offensive lines here, but for a summary of that article, I’ll say this. The top 13 teams in terms of attempts per sack last year all had 8 or more wins. 6 of the bottom 8 teams in terms of attempts per sack last year all had 7 or fewer wins, the two exceptions, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Green Bay Packers, who, I already said, actually helps prove my argument by how much better they were in the 2nd half last year than the 1st. Also, our two Super Bowl teams in 2009, Colts and Saints, ranked 1stand 4th respectively in terms of attempts per sack. Good teams protect their quarterback, in some way.
Almost every Packer skill player on offensive got better statistically in the 2nd half. Aaron Rodgers got better. Ryan Grant got better. Greg Jennings got better. Jermichael Finley got better. The only one who didn’t was Donald Driver, a veteran receiver who wore down as the year went on. Also to blame for Driver’s decrease in production, Rodgers, with more time in the pocket, went for his deep threat Jennings more often than his possession guy, Donald Driver.
Now, spread that 7-1 over 16 games and you get 14-2. Am I going to predict the Packers to win 14 games? No, that’s a little bit crazy. Could they win 14 games? It’s possible, but I think 12 or 13 is more reasonable for this team. After all, they won 11 last year. Their closest division rival, Minnesota, figures to be worse this year based on Brett Favre’s age. I’m not sure he can repeat his amazing 2009 at age 41 (more on that later). I think they’ll split the season series with Minnesota and ride a 12 or 13 win season into the playoffs and if the Saints show some Super Bowl hangover, the Packers are the favorite in the NFC this year, in my mind.
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