Packers/49ers

By Packrphan

It’s less than two hours to kickoff at a nippy (that’s Wisconsin-ese for cold) Lambeau Field. It’s the first game the Green Bay Packers have played back home since whupping the Cowboys back on Nov. 7. The weather has changed a bit since then. Today the forecast is for temps in the mid-20s and windy. 

December, as we all know — or are at least told — is when the running game is supposed to carry the day in these bad weather games. Now, for folks outside of the Midwest, let’s just say upfront that temperatures in the mid-20s is not exactly bad weather. At least for these parts. But cold and wind can affect the passing game. Given the fact that the weak spot of the Packers’ offense is its running game, or more appropriately, lack thereof, this could be a concern. It shouldn’t be today, however,

The 49ers have a decent run defense. But that’s a bit moot when you’re playing a team like the Packers who don’t count on much from their running game anyway, right? Of course right. So, given that Aaron Rodgers doesn’t seem to be bothered by the cold, expect the Pack to continue to do what they do, which is to spread out the defense and attack through the air. There should be plenty of opportunities to do just that today. Yes, it will be to the Packers’ advantage for the rest of the season if they at least can muster a token rushing attack. But, the Packers are who they are and, perhaps more specifically, head coach Mike McCarthy is who he is, and the Pack’s offense is centered around the passing game. It will either work or not like it is for the rest of the season. You just have to hope, however, they figure out how to rush for a yard or two at the goal line or to convert first downs on 3rd-and-one.

As for the Packers defense, they should have a good day going against the 49ers QB, Troy Smith. He’s led the Niners to three wins in the last four games since replacing Alex Smith. He’s more of a scrambler than a passer, which can cause some problems for a team like the Pack. But he’s no Michael Vick. TE Vernon Davis is the 49ers version of Jermichael Finley. He can cause problems. And it’s possible that LB A. J. Hawk might be matched up on coverage of Davis. Hawk has done a better job in coverage this year than last, but this is one of the times that the absence of Brandon Chillar might be very evident. The Packers should be able to handle the 49ers running game, although last week Brian Westbrook looked like the player of old, replacing Frank Gore and rushing for more than 100 yards. Westbrook always seemed to cause the Pack headaches when he was with Philadelphia. Let’s hope those days are long gone.

There are many other aspects of this game which we could break down, including special teams which is always an adventure with the Packers. We don’t, for example, know how Sam Shields will field kickoffs for the first time in cold weather. Nor do we know how punter Tim Masthay will punt in these conditions. Keep your fingers crossed that special teams do not cost the Packers a win again. Honestly, though, if it comes down to the special teams deciding the outcome of this game in yet another 3-point situation, there were bigger problems in the game than just special teams. That’s not going to happen today.

The Packers are favored by 9-1/2 points. For our part, we’re calling this game Packers 31 – 49ers 17.

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Packers 2011 Needs

Free Agency Priorities

Guard

Caleb Schlauderaff could easily become a future starter given their history of late round success and draft success in general, but I wouldn’t want to count on him next year. They almost never sign outside free agents, so they’ll probably resign Daryn Colledge instead of an outside free agent at guard.

Rush Linebacker

This has about a snow ball’s chance in hell of happening, but if they could sign an established outside free agent rush linebacker, that would be sick. Instead, they’ll hope they can find a consistent producer from Frank Zombo, Brad Jones, Erik Walden, and Ricky Elmore.

3-4 Defensive End

They seem ready to part with Cullen Jenkins as a free agent. They won’t sign anyone from the outside, but that might be a good idea. CJ Wilson, Mike Neal, and Lawrence Guy all have talent, but not a lot of experience.

 

Draft Needs 

Rush Linebacker

Clay Matthews is a beast. Even more impressive is that he’s doing all this without someone across from him to draw attention. They need someone like what LaMarr Woodley is to James Harrison in Pittsburgh.

Drafted Ricky Elmore (#197) 

Guard

Daryn Colledge is a free agent and he needed to be upgraded anyway. Danny Watkins is a 2nd rounder who can come in and help right away.

Drafted Caleb Schlauderaff (#179) 

Offensive Tackle

After another season ending injury, Mark Tauscher is likely done. Chad Clifton had a Pro Bowl year, but turns 35 in June. He has 2 years left on his deal and I think he’ll call it quits afterwards. The plan likely is to move Bulaga to left tackle when that time comes. Bulaga was drafted with the 23rd pick in 2010. That would leave them needing a new right tackle. I’m not sold on TJ Lang.

Drafted Derek Sherrod (#32) 

3-4 Defensive End

Cullen Jenkins is a free agent and Johnny Jolly is coming off a season long suspension that might not be lifted before 2011 starts.

Drafted Lawrence Guy (#233) 

Running Back

James Starks and Ryan Grant will likely split carries in 2011, assuming both are healthy, but Grant will be in a contract year in 2011 and he’s 29 in December coming off a season ending injury. He’s likely gone after 2011. They’ll need a compliment to James Starks for the future because Starks is injury prone and Brandon Jackson sucks. 

Drafted Alex Green (#96) 

 

Packers

Owen Daniels Texans

 

4 years 22 million dollars for an injury prone tight end might look like a bad idea at first, but really only 6 million of that is guaranteed so this is a contract with a lot of incentives that can’t hurt the Texans much if Daniels tears his ACL again. When healthy, Daniels is well worth this contract.

Grade: A

 

Outside Linebackers 2012

Updated 4/4/12

QB RB FB WR TE OT G C DE RLB DT NT 3-4 DE OLB MLB CB S K P 

Scoring System

100 Once in a decade prospect 
95-99 Elite talent 
90-95 Solid top 10 pick 
85-90 Solid first round pick 
80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 
75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 
70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 
65-70 3rd-4th round pick 
60-65 4th-5th round pick 
55-60 5th round pick 
50-55 6th round pick 
45-50 7th round pick 
40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp 
<40 No NFL Future

  

1. Zach Brown (North Carolina) 88

2. Lavonte David (Nebraska) 79

3. Sean Spence (Miami) 73

4. Terrell Manning (NC State) 72

5. Bobby Wagner (Utah State) 71

6. Nigel Bradham (Florida State) 70

7. Travis Lewis (Oklahoma) 67

8. Demario Davis (Arkansas State) 61

9. Emmanuel Acho (Texas) 60

10. Josh Kaddu (Oregon) 59

11. Keenan Robinson (Texas) 58

12. Ryan Baker (LSU) 55

13. Najae Goode (West Virginia) 51

14. Danny Trevathan (Kentucky) 49 

 

Outside Linebackers 2011

 

Updated 4/20/11

QB RB FB WR TE OT G C DE RLB DT 3-4 DE NT MLB OLB CB S K P

Scoring System 

100 Once in a decade prospect 
95-99 Elite talent 
90-95 Solid top 10 pick 
85-90 Solid first round pick 
80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 
75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 
70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 
65-70 3rd-4th round pick 
60-65 4th-5th round pick 
55-60 5th round pick 
50-55 6th round pick 
45-50 7th round pick 
40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp 
30-40 Career practice squader 
20-30 No NFL future 
0-20 No football future 

 

1. Von Miller 93 (Texas A&M)

2. Akeem Ayers 87 (UCLA)

3. Greg Jones 83 (Michigan State)

4. Dontay Moch 76 (Nevada)

5. Mason Foster 76 (Washington)

6. Bruce Carter 73 (North Carolina)

7. Chris Carter 70 (Fresno State) 

8. Quan Sturdivant 68 (North Carolina)

9. Lawrence Wilson 65 (Connecticut)

10. Colin McCarthy 63 (Miami)

11. Mark Herzlich 62 (Boston College)

12. KJ Wright 58 (Mississippi State)

13. Ross Homan 57 (Ohio State)

14. JT Thomas 53 (West Virginia)

15. Brian Rolle 52 (Ohio State) 

16. Doug Hogue 50 (Syracuse)

17. Eric Gordon 49 (Michigan State)

18. Jason Mouton 48 (Michigan) 

19. Adrian Moten 47 (Maryland)

20. Jabara Williams 43 (Stephen F. Austin) 

21. Cheta Ozougwu 42 (Rice)

 

  

Outside Linebacker

 

QB RB WR TE OT G C NT DT 3-4 DE DE RLB OLB MLB CB S K P

Updated 4/17/10 

100 Once in a decade prospect 

95-99 Elite talent 

90-95 Solid top 10 pick 

85-90 Solid first round pick 

80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 

75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 

70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 

65-70 3rd-4th round pick 

60-65 4th-5th round pick 

55-60 5th round pick 

50-55 6th round pick 

45-50 7th round pick 

40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp 

30-40 Career practice squader 

20-30 No NFL future 

0-20 No football future 

 

1. Sean Weatherspoon (Missouri) 88                      

3/1/10: A very good day for him, shaving about .1 second off of his projected 40 time with a 4.57, and also recording a 40 inch vertical leap and 34 reps on the bench press.

1/30/10: If there were a co-MVP, it would be Weatherspoon. He played middle linebacker for most of the game and that was where he indicated in an interview that he has best fit, but he really can play any 4-3 linebacker position, in addition to 3-4 middle linebacker, because hustle and vocal leadership don’t necessarily have a position and those are his signature traits. His coaching staff was raving ability his leadership ability all week and his hustle showed through on the field. On one play, Weatherspoon, a 241 pound linebacker, ran step for step with Mississippi’s Dexter McCluster, a 5-8 165 running back/wide receiver who is projected to run a 40 in the 4.3s, and trapped him in the corner of the end zone and broke up and almost intercepted the pass. He also had a late interception. His efforts were a huge part of the North’s front 7 domination and I think he has solidified himself as a 1st round prospect.

3 very solid years during his time at Missouri with 376 tackles, 12 sacks, and 4 picks in his last 3 years. His a very smart player on defense and a good leader on what was not supposed to be a good Missouri defense this year. He doesn’t play the most important position which will keep him out of the top 20, where he deserves to go, but he’s a solid athlete with good fundamentals and instincts, and can play both 4-3 outside linebacker spots, plus some 3-4 middle linebacker, so the versatility is there as well. He could be one of the best linebackers in the league in the near future.

2. Eric Norwood (South Carolina) 82

He has experience playing standing up at South Carolina, despite being a defensive end, and he has looked good dropping back into coverage on occasion as well so those are major pluses for rush linebacker prospects that can be so unpredictable. He also has 30 sacks in his 4 year career at South Carolina and had 7.5 this year, so he’s a good pass rusher as well, though not a great one. He’s versatile and can play 4-3 strong outside linebacker and maybe even some 3-4 middle linebacker. His 40 time for his weight could keep him out of the first round.

3. Roddrick Muckelroy (Texas) 78

Doesn’t get huge hype, but he was the leader of Texas’s defense this year and he’s a tremendous athlete. He has 182 tackles, 2 sacks, and a pick in the last 2 years, but he showed me a lot more than his statistics when I saw him on the field. He moves well and has great instincts. He can play middle linebacker in all schemes in addition to outside linebacker.

4. Daryl Washington (TCU) 76

An excellent refined linebacker for one of the most surprising schools in the country over the past two years, he will fit into any 4-3 scheme, but he’d be best in a cover 2 or zone. However, his lack of elite size 6-3 235, won’t allow him to play in a 3-4. He can play both weak outside linebacker and middle linebacker in a 4-3 and had by far his best year of his career this year with 109 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 picks, and a pick six.

5. Sergio Kindle (Texas) 74

He’s former top 10 pick prospect, but he only managed 6 sacks this year without Brian Orakpo drawing double teams across from him, after having 10 sacks last year. He’s still a highly rated defensive prospect and would make a great rush linebacker with his athleticism and the fact that he already played some outside linebacker in college so he has experience with his hands off the ground and dropping back into coverage. He’s a solid tackler and big hitter as well so he can play some strong outside linebacker in a 4-3.

6. Perry Riley (LSU) 74

Could run a low 4.5 40 at 6-1 245 which could make Al Davis draft him in the 2nd round if he decides he needs linebacker help. Riley comes from a physical system at LSU and though he hasn’t tapped into all of his potential yet, he has very good upside. His size should allow him to move to 3-4 middle linebacker if needed, though his coverage skills are really raw. Riley finished his senior year with 97 tackles, a forced fumble, and an interception.

7. Navarro Bowman (Penn State) 71                      

3/1/10: Put on some weight which led me to move them up my chart. However, didn’t carry the weight well. Ran a 4.72 so I’m moving him back down.

2/27/10: Expected to weigh in at 228 pounds, Bowman weighed 242 and appears to have bulked up in a good way since the end of last season. If this doesn’t effect his 40 time, this will help him because it increases his scheme versatility.

If scouts can look past his lack of size, 6-1 228, and his history of legal issues, this former 1st round talent could be drafted in the 2nd round and could be a steal. More likely, he’ll be drafted in the 3rd round on upside and most likely be a team that uses a zone defense. His lack of size won’t be as much of a problem in a zone scheme and his speed and ability to drop back into coverage will be utilized more fully. Bowman has 199 tackles, 7 sacks, and 3 picks in his last 2 years, but I’m puzzled by his decision to declare this year because another good trouble free year could have meant 1st round, especially if he bulked up.

 

8. Dekoda Watson (Florida State) 70

3/1/10: Another guy with impressive measurables. He’s seen as a bit of a small linebacker out of Florida State, which doesn’t hurt considering Ernie Sims and Derrick Brooks were as well. He appears to have bulked up going up to 240 pounds, but carried the weight well with a 4.53 40, 24 reps of 225 pounds, and a very impressive 40 inch vertical. He’s a linebacker with good field range and the athleticism of a running back. He should be a solid 3rd rounder.

1/30/10: He’s undersized, but he was a tough matchup for blockers because of his agility and quickness as a linebacker. He made a few nice stops on outside runs.

Obviously he’s going to get compared to Ernie Sims and Derrick Brooks because, like Sims and Brooks, Watson is a small outside linebacker from Florida State. He doesn’t fit a lot of schemes, but would fit a cover 2 scheme best. He didn’t impress me this year when I saw him and he did only have 63 tackles this year, though his 7 sacks were interesting, but likely useless stats going forward and he’s way to small to be an NFL pass rusher. Despite his potential, I’ll have to grade him conservatively, because I never saw anything with him that wowed me. 

9. AJ Edds (Iowa) 70

A big thumping linebacker at 6-4 240, but he can also do some nice finesse things as he had 5 picks this year and looked very comfortable dropping back into coverage when needed, especially for a man of his size. His production, though, was subpar with only 210 tackles in his last 3 years so he’ll be a 3rd or 4th round pick as a strong side linebacker.

10. Joe Pawelek (Baylor) 68

Check out these stats, in his 4 years at Baylor, Pawelek has 423 tackles, 6 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, and 9 picks. He will fit in both a 3-4 and a 4-3 scheme at the next level, but his timed speed will hurt his draft stock.

11. Jamar Chaney (Mississippi State) 64                                      

3/1/10: He’s got 3-4 middle linebacker size at 242 pounds, but after running a 4.51, he’s also got 4-3 outside linebacker speed. He can really play anywhere as a linebacker in either scheme, 3-4 middle, 4-3 middle, and 4-3 outside. He also had a 39 inch vertical and a 26 reps on the bench, putting together one of the most impressive athletic displays of the day.

12. Kavell Conner (Clemson) 60

A very athletic linebacker who can play multiple positions and, at the very least, can be a solid depth linebacker. I could see him starting as a strong side guy as well.

13. Stevenson Sylvester (Utah) 54

Your run of the mill 5th round depth linebacker, a bit undersized, but good production at the good school with a good system that could provide some value depth on special teams and as a linebacker. He hasn’t shown me anything special that really wowed me.

14. Rico McCoy (Tennessee) 53

Very undersized at barely 220 pounds, but he has a ton of tackles over the past 2 years, 307, as well as 2 sacks, 7 forced fumbles, and a pick. He’s a good fundamental player, but he needs to bulk up and he doesn’t have great speed for his size either.

15. Rennie Curran (Georgia) 53

 

16. Daryl Sharpton (Miami) 52

17. Keaton Kristick (Oregon State) 50

18. Kyle Bosworth (UCLA) 47

19. O’Brien Schofield (Wisconsin) 45

20. Simoni Lawrence (Minnesota) 43

 

 

Orson Charles Scout

 

Tight End

Georgia

6-2 251

Draft board overall prospect rank: #64

Draft board overall tight end rank: #3

Overall rating: 73 (3rd round)

40 time: 4.75

Games watched: Georgia/LSUTennessee/Georgia

Positives

·         3 year starter

·         Productive receiver (2009: 23 catches for 374 yards and 3 touchdowns, 2010: 26 catches for 422 yards and 2 touchdowns, 2011: 45 catches for 574 yards and 5 touchdowns)

·         A matchup problem in the seam – too fast for linebackers, too big for safeties

·         Great hands

·         Good route runner

·         Good body control

·         Big play threat in the big

·         Athletic

·         Plays faster than his 40 time (4.75)

·         Versatile player who lined up in various different roles (in-line, h-back, split out wide, fullback)

·         Hard worker who put on 10 pounds of muscle after the season

·         35 reps on the bench press

·         Solid bulk

·         Has the ability to develop into a good blocker

Negatives

·         Disappointing 40 time (4.75 at his Pro Day)

·         Mysteriously didn’t run at The Combine after putting on 10 pounds

·         Wasn’t asked to block much

·         Short (6-2)

·         Arrested for DUI after this season

·         Can be jammed at the line

·         Short arms

NFL Comparison: Dustin Keller

Orson Charles played last season at 6-2 240, which is undersized for a tight end. However, he was a real matchup threat in the seam. He lined up at various different positions on the field was tough to cover for both linebackers (too slow) and safeties (too big). He had good hands and had a productive junior season. However, he was still undersized and rarely asked to be an in-line blocker.

After the season, he did a good job of getting up to 6-2 251 for The Combine and proved it was all muscle with 35 reps on the bench press. However, he mysteriously decided not to run the 40 and was just so-so in the drills. He then was arrested for a DUI. That’s a problem in of itself, but it’s also a sign that he’s not committed to the game. Anyone committed to the game would not have put himself in that position so close to the draft. After that, he ran a disappointing 4.75 40 at his Pro Day.

As a prospect, he reminds me of Dustin Keller. Keller was a first round pick in 2008 after putting up great numbers at The Combine. Charles didn’t do that, but he’s just as good of an athlete and a pass catcher, even if his athleticism didn’t show at The Combine. Keller is not much of a blocker even to this day. Charles has the ability to develop good blocking skills, but he’ll probably remain a subpar blocker throughout his career. In 2011, Keller led the Jets with 65 catches for 815 yards and 5 touchdowns. Keller also has Charles’ lack of height at 6-2, but he’s persevered. 

In a weak tight end class, Charles will probably be the 3rd tight end off the board after Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, though it’s possible that Ladarius Green will leap him because of Charles’ recent DUI. Still, he’s probably a 3rd round pick. He has the ability to contribute immediately in an Aaron Hernandez type role, though I didn’t make that comparison because I think Hernandez is a better player.

 

Orlando Scandrick Dallas

 

Well I guess we know why the Cowboys didn’t address the cornerback position early in the 2011 NFL Draft, despite Terence Newman’s age (33 in September), Terrence Newman’s struggles in 2010, and poor play from the nickel back slot in 2010. The Cowboys obviously didn’t see their play from the nickel back slot as poor. In fact, they saw nickel cornerback, Orlando Scandrick, as a future starter and replacement for Terence Newman, who is owed 21 million over the next 3 years after the 2011 season and could be cut next offseason.

Scandrick, a 2008 5th round pick out of Boise State, who is going into his 4th season and would have been an unrestricted free agent after the 2011 season, was given a 5 year 27 million dollar extension worth 10 million in guarantees today. To me, that makes no sense. Scandrick had the 9th highest quarterback rating against of any cornerback who played more than 25% of his teams snap last season.

He allowed 53 catches on 77 targets for 530 yards and 7 touchdowns to just 1 interception, good for a quarterback rating allowed of 113.0. Keep in mind, he was doing this as a nickel cornerback, lining up against the opponent’s slot receiver, in every game except for 1 last season. I have no idea why they view him as a future starter and why they gave him 27 million over 5 years. No one out there would have given him anywhere near that had he tested the market next offseason. Even if he does become a solid starter for them, they at least jumped the gun on this extension.

Grade: F

Olin Kreutz Saints

 

So let me see if I got this straight. The Bears offered Kreutz 4 million. He refused, demanding 500K more. The Bears didn’t give him that. Their players, Kreutz’ former teammates, were not happy about this and it looked like it upset the team’s all important chemistry. The Bears then went out and signed Chris Spencer for 2 years 6 million. Today, with options running out, Kreutz accepts a deal for the Saints for 2 million dollars with incentives that max out at 4 million, what the Bears offered him. Sounds like a lose/lose, except for the Saints who are getting a solid veteran center at a cheap rate. He’ll give them an upgrade over projected starter Matt Tennant, an inexperienced 2nd year player.

The Saints are quietly having a nice offseason, shoring up their defensive line (drafting Cameron Jordan and signing Aubrayo Franklin), shoring up their offensive line (resigning Jermon Bushrod and signing Olin Kreutz), fixing their running game (drafting Mark Ingram, resigning Pierre Thomas, signing Darren Sproles), getting rid of Reggie Bush’s contract, and all without breaking the bank.

Grade: A