Running Back 

West Virginia

5-7 179

Draft board overall prospect rank: #128

Draft board running back rank: #13

Overall rating: 62 (mid 4th) 

40 time: 4.26

4/16/11: So much for his bullshit weight gain from 160 at The Senior Bowl to 179 at The Combine, where he didn’t work out. Devine ran a 4.26 at his Pro Day. That’s pretty fucking fast. He’s back into day 2 consideration, even with his lack of size. Dexter McCluster went in the 2^nd round last year despite his small size.  

2/27/11: Put on 19 pounds mysteriously in one month and then didn’t run. Interesting. I’m calling bullshit on this extra weight.

2/25/11: Devine is up 19 pounds from the 160 he was listed at when he weighed in at The Senior Bowl about a month ago. He needed bulk, but how did he gain 19 pounds in a month? That’s a lot of cheetos. We’ll see how he runs in a few days. For now, I’m raising his stock.

2/19/11: We all knew Noel Devine was small, but before he weighed in at The Senior Bowl, we didn’t know how small. He weighed in at 160, 15 pounds lighter than the already minuscule 175 he was listed at. Very rarely does a running back succeed in the NFL under 200 pounds. Chris Johnson is the notable exception, as is Jamaal Charles, but both of them have their weights in the 190s, so it’s not that big of a stretch. 160 is.

Watching Devine run around at The Senior Bowl, I was reminded of when someone puts a jersey that’s two sizes too big on a little kid and has him run around the yard in pads. He looked that small. He didn’t break any tackles. He was blazing fast untouched and tough to catch, and he should run one of the faster 40 times this year, but he’s just straight line fast. He’s not shifty. He doesn’t change direction well and he can’t absorb any hits.

Devine was a highly touted prospect going into West Virginia, most notable being a candidate for ESPN’s NEXT some years back. He rushed for 4317 yards and 29 touchdowns on 729 carries in 4 years, three as a starter after Steve Slaton graduated and was drafted in the 3rd round by Houston. He also caught 91 passes in his last 3 years, so he can do that, but I don’t think he’s anything more than a really fast kick returner and a maybe 3rd down back at the next level.

NFL Comparison: Brandon Banks

 

When I first heard this I thought, “whoa, Nnamdi Asomugha, Asante Samuel, and Dominique Rodgers Cromartie all on the same team, that could be interesting.” However, it now appears the Eagles will try to trade or cut Samuel and the 3 years 25-29 million (with incentives) left on his contract so they can resign DeSean Jackson. I think they can get a mid rounder for him (Cowboys?). Would you rather pay Nnamdi Asomugha 60 million over 5 years with 25 million guaranteed and get a mid rounder or pay Asante Samuel 25 million over 3 years? Yeah, I thought so. Great pickup of a player I thought was going to get more in free agency (he probably took less money to win in Philadelphia).

Grade: A

 

 

Scott Hardwick is one of the better centers in the league, ranking 12^th by ProFootballFocus. He was worth more to the Chargers than anyone for continuity reasons and with other questions on the offensive line, they needed to lock up their center. Credit them for doing it for a reasonable amount, 13.5 million over 3 years with 6.5 million guaranteed.

Grade: A 

 

 

Quarterback

Arizona

6-5 243

Draft board overall prospect rank: #181

Draft board overall quarterback rank: #7

Overall rating: 56 (5^th round)

40 time: 5.13

Games watched: Stanford/Arizona, UCLA/Arizona

Positives

·         Great arm strength

·         Prototypical size (6-5 243)

·         Strong, breaks tackles

·         3 year starter

·         Productive player in a major conference (2009: 63.6%, 6.1 YPA, 19/9 TD/INT, 2010: 67.1%, 7.5 YPA, 20/10 TD/INT, 2011: 69.1%, 7.7 YPA, 28/14 TD/INT)

·         Highly recruited

·         All the tools

·         Played with very little supporting cast, particularly offensive line and defense

·         Played through injury

·         Tough, durable

·         Good short to intermediate accuracy

·         Gotten off to hot starts in each of last 2 seasons

·         Flashes on tape

·         Pro style experience

Negatives

·         Footwork is a mess

·         Poor decision making

·         Gun shy – takes too long to make decisions, opts to check down way too often

·         Not a winner (4-13 in last 17 games)

·         Leadership? Intangibles?

·         Poor pocket presence

·         Takes too many sacks

·         Dinks and dunks too much, rather than trying to lead scoring drives

·         Doesn’t trust his arm

·         Poor deep accuracy

·         Bailed out often by Juron Criner

·         Awful Pro Day – scouts said he couldn’t even throw a spiral

·         Statue in the pocket (5.13 40)

·         Struggles late in the season

NFL Comparison: Jevan Snead

As a prospect, Foles reminds me of Jevan Snead, who came out in 2010. Snead was at one point a potential first round prospect because he had all the tools and even was considered a possible 3^rd round pick after his final season ended. However, he had a poor draft pre-season and did not even get drafted, much to the surprise of many. He had all the tools, but no one wanted to bother with a draft pick on him because his game was too much of a mess. Tampa Bay signed him as an undrafted free agent and he has yet to take a snap in the NFL.

Foles might not go undrafted. Someone might take a chance on him, but it’s important to note that it is a pretty big chance. He also could go undrafted like Snead somewhat surprisingly did in 2010. Like Snead, Foles has poor footwork, questionable decision making, and poor deep accuracy. Snead threw 20 interceptions in his last season at Mississippi. Foles threw 14, but could have thrown more. He was often bailed out by receiver Juron Criner, especially in the red zone.

I watched Nick Foles go toe-to-toe with Andrew Luck and Stanford earlier this season. Their stats were very, very similar, in fact, you could argue Foles had the better stats. Luck went 20 of 31 for 325 yards and 2 touchdowns. Foles went 24 of 33 for 249 yards and a touchdown. Foles, in fact, completed his first 16 passes. However, Stanford won 37-10.

The difference was evident. Luck showed tremendous pocket presence, leadership, and made all the clutch throws. He led touchdown drives. Foles seemed more content dinking and dunking his way to nice stats, but there was no substance. He’d throw short of the sticks on 3^rd down and stall around the 40 and takes untimely sacks because he had the ball too long. He’s got a great arm, he just doesn’t seem to trust it. He also seems to lack the intangibles. He doesn’t have “it”. He’s not a winner.

On top of that, he starts seasons well, but doesn’t finish them well. This season, he started with 10-0 TD-INT, but finished 18-14 TD-INT in his last 8 games. On the season, he completed 69.1% of his passes, 7.7 YPA, and 28 touchdowns to 14 interceptions. Last season he had a very high completion percentage (mid 70s) to start the season, but finished at 67.1%. I thought that was related to a leg injury that he came back too quickly from, but it’s starting to look like a trend. 

He’s got the base arm strength to be a legitimate starting quarterback in the NFL, but so did Snead and he went undrafted. So did Kyle Boller and JaMarcus Russell and they were complete busts. As a 5^th or 6^th round pick, you can definitely work with him as a developmental 3^rd quarterback, so I think he’s worth a selection there. I just wouldn’t get my hopes up about him, like Trent Dilfer (called him a top-15 pick a couple months ago) or Todd McShay (has him ranked 4^th on his quarterback board).

 

Defensive Tackle/3-4 Defensive End

Auburn

6-4 297

Draft Board Overall Prospect Rank: #3

Draft Board Overall Defensive Tackle Rank: #1

Rating: 96 (Elite)

40 time: 4.82

2/27/11: Fairley came in here trying to separate himself from all the other #1 pick candidates. Being 6-3 291 instead of 6-5 300 didn’t help. For comparison, Marcell Dareus was 6-3 318.

2/20/11: Nick Fairley’s 2010 season was the definition of a breakout season, as the little known defensive tackle from Auburn exploded for 12.5 sacks, .5 more than Ndamukong Suh had in 2009, despite missing one game. However, he widely regarded as a lesser prospect than Ndamukong Suh, for several reasons. One, and most important to me, he only did this one year. He had 1 sack in 2009 and didn’t play in 2008. That’s the definition of a one year wonder. Suh was a 3 year starter that had totaled a fairly impressive 7 sacks in 2008, before his 2009 season.

Suh was also much more well rounded. Suh could deflect passes at the line of scrimmage and chase running backs out of the backfield. In addition to 12 sacks, he also LED his team in tackles and was second in pass deflections. His 26 quarterback pressures were 5 more than Fairley’s 21. Suh also played with better leverage than Fairley

Finally, and the least important reason to me, is Fairley’s “dirty” label. People are calling him an immature personal foul machine that will be suspended several times in his career and commit one 15 yard personal foul penalty every game. While it is true, a lot of Fairley’s hits this year would have drawn penalties in the NFL, but they didn’t in college football. Isn’t it possible he could change his style of play to be less erratic in the NFL? It’s much easier for a coach to calm a player’s play down than to coach him up.

You can’t coach Fairley’s type of motor. He doesn’t take plays off. Just because he committed some dirty hits in college, doesn’t mean he’s going to become Albert Haynesworth, step on Andre Gurode’s face with cleats, only try in contact years, make 100 million dollars and then bitch about a 3-4 scheme he hasn’t even tried yet.

Fairley seems like a good kid. He doesn’t take plays off and while that could certainly change once he’s given a ton of money in the NFL, I’m not going to let that stop me from ranking him high. Any defensive linemen ever drafted high could bust when given a ton of money. Suh could have (he obviously didn’t, but he could have). Besides, Suh wasn’t the cleanest player in college or in the NFL. He was fined several times for hits on quarterbacks this year and had some dirty hits at Nebraska. Fairley’s personal fouls are not as big of a concern as his potential to be a one year wonder and his lack of a complete game like Suh.

However, Fairley could still be drafted higher than Suh. He seems like the consensus top pick right now, and while I still have AJ Green going #1 because I think it’s too soon to tell and Green makes more sense to me. This, however, doesn’t mean that he’s a consensus better prospect than Suh. This is just a weaker class. There’s no Sam Bradford in this class and if there wasn’t one last year, Suh would have been the #1 pick in a heartbeat. If Suh were in this class, Fairley would be the consensus #2 prospect and the Panthers probably would have already announced they were taking Suh. Suh’s just better.

Fairley probably is the only top 3 pick lock in this class right now. He has the ability to play inside in a 4-3 and outside in a 3-4 as a 3-4 defensive end. He won’t fall past the Bills at #3. I just can’t see it happening, barring some sort of freak incident between now and draft day. He’s the best overall defensive lineman in what could be the strongest defensive line class in NFL history.

I wouldn’t take Fairley #1 just because of his one year wonder potential, even if defensive tackle was my #1 need (which I don’t feel it is for Carolina). However, I still have him as my 3^rd overall prospect. He’s a very, very strong prospect. He was simply impossible to keep away from the quarterback this year. He was Suh-like in that regarded and while he isn’t the overall player Suh is, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up as the Defensive Player of the Year in 2011 (assuming we have football) and approached Suh’s unbelievable 10 sacks. Fairley appears to be next in the line of 300 pound defensive tackles who pass rush like defensive ends, a fact that should have NFL quarterbacks shitting their pants in fear.

NFL Comparison: Darnell Dockett

 

 

 

Barnett used to be a great linebacker in this league. However, he’s 30 and coming off a season ending injury. This wasn’t exactly a cheap signing either, giving Barnett 4 million per year over 3 years with half of that guaranteed. Considering Tulloch and Ruud both went for 4 million per year, the Bills overpaid. They also gave him too much guaranteed money over too long of a contract.

Grade: C

 

All of my scouting reports organized by position. Click on the player’s name to read my opinion on him. 

Ryan Mallett (Alabama)

Colin Kaepernick (Nevada)

Jake Locker (Washington)

Christian Ponder (Florida State)

Ricky Stanzi (Iowa)

Blaine Gabbert (Missouri) 

Cam Newton (Auburn) 

Pat Devlin (Delaware) 

Andy Dalton (TCU) 

2012 NFL Power Rankings- June

2012 NFL Power Rankings- May

2011 NFL Power Rankings

2010 NFL Power Rankings

2009 NFL Power Rankings