Offensive Guard/Offensive Tackle 

Alabama

6-6 312

40 time: 5.37

Draft board overall prospect rank: #51

Draft board overall offensive guard rank: #2

Overall rating: 78*

1/19/10: He probably wouldn’t be a top 10 tackle without his ability to play guard, but he’s an amazing run blocker. He blocked for Glen Coffee in 2008 and Mark Ingram in 2009. He’s not a big mauling run blocker, but his technique is amazing and he should be drafted in the 2^nd or maybe 3^rd round as a right tackle or right guard.

            10/2/09: Mike Johnson is a mauling offensive lineman who has experience playing guard and both tackle positions for Alabama’s strong offensive front. He projects best as a guard in the NFL, which limits his stock some, but I wouldn’t count out Johnson as a future right tackle in the NFL. Even as a guard, he’s the best pure guard in the draft class and that could get him drafted in the 2^nd round. He was a huge part of the reason why Alabama ran so well last year in 2008, the other part being Andre Smith, who was drafted 6^th overall by the Bengals. Even this year, without top running back Glen Coffee and top offensive lineman Andre Smith, Alabama runs extremely well against tough SEC opponents and Johnson is a huge part of that. He is the leader of the offensive line and plays very smart, reacting well to blitzes. He has the size to handle some of the big defensive tackles in the NFL. He plays a lot bigger than the 310 pounds he’s listed at and is in great shape. His hand placement and his footwork are both excellent and he’s extremely explosive in his initial push. He’s an excellent run blocker, but his pass protection needs some work. His doesn’t move his feet well to pick rushers coming from the outside and can get blown past by speed rushers. He’s not athletic and quick enough to play in a zone blocking scheme that requires a lot of moving around, even by guards. He certainly can’t play tackle in a zone blocking scheme and would not be best utilized as a guard in a zone blocking scheme because he doesn’t move well, though he could play guard in a zone scheme if he had it. He’s best fit in a man blocking scheme where he can use his amazing upper body strength and giant hands to push back defensive linemen. He’s very smart and takes good angles on secondary blocks down field. He’ll probably be the first guard taken in the 2010 NFL draft, both because he’s the best guard and also because he can play some tackle and that puts him somewhere around the 2^nd or 3^rd round based on history.

NFL Comparison: Justin Smiley 

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

Guard

Idaho

6-5 331

40 time: 5.26

Draft board overall prospect rank: #30

Draft board guard rank: #1

Overall rating: 83*

            4/6/10: Mike Iupati is one of the most talked about guard prospects in a long time, drawing premature comparisons to Larry Allen, who is by far the best guard to play the game of football in the last 20 years. He is as much of a first round lock as any guard can be and I’ve seen him mocked as high as #13 to the Niners. I think the hype around him is overly ridiculous. He’s a very high upside raw prospect, but this not a high ready to contribute from week 1 like most think. He is a mauling blocker and uses his weight extremely well and he moves his feet amazingly for his size, but his technique is very raw and he was very inconsistent against less than stellar competition. He struggled in pass protection against the extremely quick Geno Atkins in the Senior Bowl. However, he has had moments of sheer dominance, entire quarters where he has just taken guys out of the game completely. He locks onto a guy and he’s just completely dominant. He can take on nose tackles and still shut them down one on one. He finishes his blocks well and seals off well. However, he is still raw and needs to work on consistency. His motor runs hot and cold. He lacks elite footwork and handwork. He is still a borderline first round prospect and a first round lock, with his elite athleticism, his ability to shut a defensive lineman down one on one and also to move in space well and play a zone scheme even at his size, but he needs to work on consistency. Teams like the Niners, the Steelers at 18, the Texans at 20, the Patriots at 22, the Packers at 23, the Eagles at 24, the Cowboys at 27, and the Vikings at 30 will all have strong interest in him in the bottom half of the 1^st and I would be very surprised if he slipped out.

NFL Comparison: Davin Joseph

*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here

Trade for Raiders: The Raiders drafted Bruce Campbell in the 4^th round in 2010 in what looked like a steal at the time as the athletic offensive lineman was widely projected to be drafted in the first 2 rounds. However, Campbell proved why he fell so far and why he probably should have fallen farther as he played just 19 snaps in 2 seasons. There was some talk that the Raiders would have him compete for the starting left guard job with the soon to be 35 year old Cooper Carlisle, but I guess not. Guard will be a major need of theirs in the draft.

However, Goodson was a nice pickup for them. Darren McFadden can’t stay healthy and Taiwan Jones is unproven. Goodson was buried in the depth chart in Carolina behind Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams and with the addition of Mike Tolbert, there was no room for him. However, he’s proven himself to be a decent #2  back when given the opportunity and the Raiders are just giving up a developmental prospect they’ve given up on for him.

Trade: B

Trade for Panthers: This trade makes less sense for the Panthers. Goodson had to go, obviously, but they probably would have been better off getting a late draft pick for him rather than a lost cause prospect, unless they really think they can turn Campbell into a functional offensive line prospect.

Grade: C

Brisiel has been an average to above average guard for Houston over the last few seasons, ranking 9^th in 2010 and 35^th in 2011. The Raiders are getting him at a reasonable rate (5 years, 20 million) and needed to make a cheap move like this with limited cap space and draft picks. There are some questions about his ability to play in a scheme other than Houston’s, but Oakland will be running a zone style scheme as well.

Grade: A

Offensive Tackle

Ohio State

6-7 323

Draft board overall prospect rank: #64

Draft board overall offensive tackle rank: #5

Overall rating: 73 (3rd round)

40 time: 5.40

Games watched: Michigan State/Ohio State, Ohio State/Miami, Wisconsin/Ohio State, Ohio State/Penn State, Ohio State/Michigan

Positives

·         Excellent height (6-7)

·         Huge (6-7 323)

·         Long arms

·         Massive hands (11 inches)

·         Good hand use

·         Physical freak

·         Excellent feet for his size

·         Mobile and athletic – played some tight end on unbalanced lines at Ohio State

·         Size/athleticism combo

·         Good 2^nd level blocker

·         Experienced out of a 3 point stance

·         Good knee bend

·         Wide base in stance

·         Heavily recruited (#10 recruit in 2008, #2 offensive tackle behind Tyron Smith)

·         Incredibly dominant at the Senior Bowl

·         Flashes excellence

Negatives

·         Incredibly inconsistent

·         Allows way more sacks and pressures than he should

·         Disappointing Combine (only 19 reps of 225, 5.40 40)

·         Suspended on 2 occasions

·         Has a prior arrest

·         Failed The Combine’s drug test

·         Past injury history

·         Questions about motor and passion for the game

·         Work ethic concerns

·         Maturity concerns

·         Not a ton of experience (due to suspensions and injuries)

·         Has had some issues with speed rushers

NFL Comparison: Jared Gaither

Mike Adams has the talent to go in the top 5. He’s an absolute athletic freak who has mobile feet on the level of Matt Kalil, only he’s 20 pounds bigger. He’s 6-7 323 with 34 inch arms and massive 11 inch hands. He was the #2 ranked offensive tackle coming out of high school, in between Tyron Smith and Matt Kalil, both of whom went in the top 10.

However, he never lived up to this at Ohio State. He was in and out of the lineup with suspensions and injury and gave up way more sacks and pressures than you’d like. His senior year was especially disappointing. He only played in 7 games because of a suspension from the Ohio State tattoo scandal, and only faced two draftable pass rushers in those 7 games, Whitney Mercilus and Jack Crawford. He allowed 1.5 sacks to Mercilus and 2 sacks to Crawford, two speed rushers who were able to blow right past him and get the best of him.

He really just seems like one of those prospects that doesn’t get it. He has the off the field issues, a 2 game suspension in 2009 for breaking a team rule, a 5 game suspension in 2011 for the tattoo scandal, and a run in with the law in 2009 for drug possession (the charges were dropped). He also failed a drug test for marijuana at The Combine. The issue there isn’t that he smokes marijuana. It’s that he didn’t care enough about football to stop smoking marijuana in order to pass a drug test he knew was coming.

Going off the concerns about his passion for the game, his Combine workouts were really poor. For someone with his natural athletic gifts, 19 reps on the bench and a 5.40 40 with an awful 1.84 10 yard split, is incredibly disappointing. There are concerns about his ability to keep himself in elite football shape. Add in all this to his disappointing play on the field and you’ve got a prospect with serious passion and love of the game concerns, which is a huge red flag. He was a disappointing player for Ohio State in college and I have to think that he’ll continue to disappoint in the NFL as long as he’s drafted in the first 2 rounds.

My comparison for him is Jared Gaither. Like Gaither, Adams has elite physical abilities. Gaither was a high school tight end who came into the league at about 6-9 330. They both have excellent size/athleticism combinations, but Gaither fell into the 5^th round of the supplementary draft because of his lack of consistency and his off the field issues, the off the field issues that made him have to join the supplementary draft in the first place. Gaither has exceeded his draft range as he’s been a good left tackle when healthy, but he’s been consistent and off injured.

Adams won’t go in the 5^th round so I don’t like his chances of exceeding his draft range as much. He probably won’t go in the 1^st round, which once looked like an option after a dominant Senior Bowl. In the Senior Bowl, he shut down both Melvin Ingram and Courtney Upshaw, as well as Quinton Coples on occasion. I argued he should have been the MVP as the North won. However, after failing a drug test at The Combine, that no longer looks like an option. He now has competition for the #4 tackle spot from Bobby Massie, Mitchell Schwartz, and Jeff Allen.

He’ll probably still go in the 2^nd round because of his upside, but there’s a small chance he’ll last until the 3^rd round. Both Justin Houston and Christian Ballard fell 2 rounds below their previously projected draft range last year after failing drug tests at The Combine, but the Vikings still took Percy Harvin in the first round in 2009 after a failed drug test, so there’s no clear rule with this type of thing. It only takes one team to take a chance on him and I think one will in the 2^nd round, but there’s always a chance one doesn’t.

I have broken my sleepers into 4 categories this year. Mid Round Upside Picks, Mid Round Value Picks, Late Round Upside Picks, Late Round Value Picks. A Mid Round Value Pick, as I will list here, is anyone available in the mid rounds (8^th-12^th) of a 12 team draft, that doesn’t have the upside of a high upside sleeper, but is just flat out being overlooked. They are a relatively safe pick that you can count on to be worth slightly more than the round you draft them in.

All average draft position (ADP) stats are as of 9/1/10 and were found at ESPN.com. ADP stats serve to provide you an estimate of when you should take these players and when you can expect them to be off of the board and thus ADP stats are crucial when dealing with upside and value picks.

TE Zach Miller- OAK

ADP: 117^th

Jason Campbell loves to throw to his tight ends. In his first 2 years with Jason Campbell at quarterback, Chris Cooley had yards totals of 786 and 849, both of which were career highs at the time. He only managed 1 touchdown in 2008, but with 8 the year before it’s safe to say 2008 was a fluke in terms of touchdowns. In 2009, despite leaving midway through his 7^th game with an injury and going down for the season, Cooley still had 29 catches for 332 yards and 2 scores. In 2009, despite not playing extensively until Cooley got hurt midway through his 7^thgame, Fred Davis had 48 catches for 509 yards and 6 scores. Combine those stats with Cooley’s and Washington tight ends had 77 catches for 841 yards and 8 scores last year. Not bad. With Jason Campbell now in Oakland, Zach Miller figures to have a great year. Miller is as talented, if not more talented than Davis and Cooley. In his last 2 years, despite playing with an ugly mix of JaMarcus Russell, Charlie Frye, and Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback, Zach Miller has averaged 61 catches and 792 yards per season. With Jason Campbell at quarterback now, he has a chance to approach 900 yards. Zach Miller has never been much of a touchdown threat, but that’s not really his fault. He may only have 4 touchdowns over the last 2 years, but that’s because the Raiders have only had 23 receiving touchdowns over the last 2 years. In fact, Miller was actually 2^nd on the team in touchdowns last year with 3. Now that they have a quarterback who can actually lead and complete drives to the end zone, Miller should be more in that 5-7 range. At 6-5, you’d figure he’d be their best goal line threat.

TE Greg Olsen- CHI

ADP: 135th

I had Greg Olsen as a potential top 5 tight end last year. That didn’t happen, he was 10^th, but I’m not giving up on him this year. Jay Cutler loves to throw to his tight ends. In Cutler’s last two years in Denver, tight end Tony Scheffler had a total of 89 catches for 1194 yards and 8 scores. For comparison’s sake, he had 31 catches for 416 and 2 scores last year with Kyle Orton. Cutler is now in his 2^nd year in Chicago, with Chicago’s receivers, and that can only help Olsen this year. Also, Mike Martz is now Chicago’s offensive coordinator, so Chicago should be throwing a bit more this year, also a good thing for Olsen. Olsen is the type of vertical threat tight end that is built to succeed in Martz’ scheme. He’s also only 25 so the former 1^st rounder probably hasn’t reached his full potential yet. Expect him to increase the 60 catches for 612 yards and 8 scores he has last year.

WR Mohamed Massaquoi- CLE

ADP: 148th

8/31/10: Delhomme has actually looked decent this preseason and while I don’t recommend drafting Delhomme, it definitely a good sign for Massaquoi, Delhomme’s #1 receiver.

Someone has to lead the Browns in receiving yards…right? Massaquoi was that guy last year and with a full season as their #1 receiver, he should increase his stats. He wasn’t their number one until week 4 last year. Take his stats from the last 13 games and extrapolate them across 16 games and you get 39 catches for 735 yards and 4 scores. I think that’s his floor. He, essentially, had those stats as a rookie with crap at quarterback. This year, he’s not a rookie and there’s a slight chance the Browns won’t have crap at quarterback this year. I mean you never know. Maybe Jake Delhomme will find his old form. It’s highly unlikely, but Massaquoi looks like a guy with a floor of about 700 yards, 4-6 scores, and a ceiling that’s higher than that. That makes him a WR4 with upside and a guy who can be plugged into your lineup on occasion. He’s not being drafted as that.

WR Lee Evans- BUF

ADP: 108th

Lee Evans was awful last year with a career low 44 catches for a career low 612 yards. However, that’s because he was the #2 receiver to Terrell Owens on an awful offense. TO is now gone and Evans is the main man again. I know getting Buffalo’s “main man” shouldn’t should too exciting because, yes, Buffalo is going to suck this year. However, they’ve sucked all of Lee Evans career, particularly at the quarterback position. That didn’t stop him from getting 1292 yards in 2007, 849 yards in 2008, and 1017 yards in 2009. He could pass that 1000 yard mark again.

RB Tim Hightower

ADP: 121st

8/31/10: For the 3^rd straight week, Hightower was the Cardinals’ starter at running back. Even if he isn’t the starter during the season, in favor of Chris Wells, he should get his fair share of carries because Coach Ken Whisenhunt loves his pass catching and pass blocking skills. Love him as a high upside RB4. 

8/24/10: Hightower got the start again but only managed 3 yards on 5 carries. Still, the start is more important for fantasy purposes. 

8/15/10: For his value, Hightower is a solid pickup as he’s going in the 110s on average. I wouldn’t mind having this guy as my RB4 in the 9^th or 10^th round. Wells is injury prone which means Hightower could get a start or two this season and the Cardinals made it clear in their first preseason game that they plan on using Hightower in some significant form this year. He’s a great pass catcher and Matt Leinart loves to checkdown. 

WR Jabar Gaffney

ADP: 139th

8/24/10: Gaffney has been used in the #1 receiver role in Denver this preseason and had 6 catches for 98 yards on 7 targets in his 2^nd preseason game. It appears it will be him, not Demaryius Thomas or Eddie Royal who is the impact receiver in Denver this year. Gaffney had 21 catches for 282 yards and 2 score in his final 2 regular season games last year.

WR Derrick Mason

ADP: 118th 

8/24/10: Despite all the new weapons the Ravens gave Joe Flacco this offseason, he’s still doing what he knows how to do best in the preseason, throwing it to Derrick Mason. Mason only has one season of 1000 yards or less in the past 10 years and could challenge for another 1000 yard season this year, even with all these new weapons around him. Even if he doesn’t get 1000 yards, he’ll be close and he’s extremely undervalued this year.

RB Leon Washington

ADP: 143rd

9/3/10: Washington has been Seattle’s best runner this preseason and sat for rest purposes in the Seahawks 4^th preseason game. They have big plans for him and I expect him to be their lead back, though they will use 3 different backs frequently this year. He’s also a great pass catcher.

I have broken my sleepers into 4 categories this year. Mid Round Upside Picks, Mid Round Value Picks, Late Round Upside Picks, Late Round Value Picks. A Mid Round Upside Pick, as I will list here, is anyone available in the mid rounds (8^th-12^th) of a 12 team draft, that has the potential to be a lot more productive than where they are getting drafted. They aren’t guaranteed to be great players, but they have the potential to be starting caliber fantasy players at their position and they are getting drafted too low.

All average draft position (ADP) stats are as of 9/1/10 and were found at ESPN.com. ADP stats serve to provide you an estimate of when you should take these players and when you can expect them to be off of the board and thus ADP stats are crucial when dealing with upside and value picks.

WR Malcom Floyd- SD

ADP: 121st

9/2/10: If Jackson has truly played his last game as a Charger, Floyd’s value goes up even more. He has certainly looked like a #1 receiver this preseason and could match Jackson’s 2009 numbers, 1167 yards and 9 scores. 

7/24/10: While Jackson is out, Floyd has even more time to build a bond with quarterback Phillip Rivers. If he doesn’t have 1000 yards this year, I would be shocked.

7/9/10: I had him as a sleeper based on the potential that Jackson would get suspended. Now Floyd will be the Chargers #1 receiver for at least 3 weeks next year. This guy already had 34 catches for 525 yards in his 8 starts last year as their #2 receiver, now he has at least 3 weeks of being the #1 guy in that offense and 3 weeks of no Vincent Jackson to take away red zone looks. This guy is a major sleeper and could be a top 15 fantasy wide receiver if Jackson gets traded. 

Malcom Floyd broke out last year at age 28. He had 41 catches for 776 yards and 1 score. That 1 score looks like a fluke because he’s 6-5. I expect more touchdowns for him. Facing his first full season as a starter, 40 catches for 750 yards and 5 scores looks like the floor for him. His ceiling is a lot higher. In his last 8 games, after Chris Chambers’ release officially made him a starter, Floyd had 34 catches for 525 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 68 catches for 1050 yards. Add in the fact that Vincent Jackson could be facing a 4 game suspension to start the season, making Floyd Phillip Rivers’ #1 receiver, and you’ve got yourself a fantasy sleeper.

RB Michael Bush- OAK

ADP: 97th 

8/31/10: Bush broke his thumb in his 3^rd preseason game and his status for the Raiders first 1-3 weeks is in doubt. 

8/24/10: Bush has taken advantage of McFadden’s injury and looks in line to win the starting running back job in Oakland. He’s a very talented back and will almost certainly be a 1000 yard guy if given 250+ carries. He also has decent hands and good size near the end zone, provided the Raiders make it to the end zone with more consistency this year than years past. 

Clearly Oakland’s most talented back, averaging 4.8 YPC last year, despite running behind a crappy line with a fat pile of crap at quarterback. With an upgraded line and a drastically upgraded quarterback, Bush should have no problem getting to 1000 yards with enough carries. The enough carries is the hard part. He only got 123 last year and I think he needs at least 90-100 more to get past the 1000 yard mark. The coaching staff is still invested in Darren McFadden because of his salary and is still invested in Justin Fargas for god knows why. Bush is taking all the 1^st team snaps in OTAs, which is a good sign, but there’s still a long way to go.

QB Chad Henne- MIA

ADP: 126th

Henne had 274 completions in 451 attempts for 2878 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 14 picks last year, in 13 and a half games. Do some crazy math and you get 331 for 535 for 3411 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 17 picks. How much better could Chad Henne be this year than last year? Take a look at Kyle Orton. Going from Chicago to Denver, Orton went from a mediocre receiving corps, to a mediocre receiving corps plus Brandon Marshall. Orton threw for 830 more yards, 3 more scores, without having any more picks. There are plenty more reasons why Henne should improve with Marshall than was the case with Orton. Henne has a stronger arm to hit Marshall downfield. Henne isn’t learning a new scheme. Henne is going into only his 2^nd year as a starter, 3^rd year in the league, and figures to get better simply from experience. Now, some of you may say, yeah, but Orton threw 76 more times between 2008 and 2009. This is true, but this is also a result of playing with Marshall. When you have a true deep threat, teams tend to pass more. Miami will pass more this year, which means more attempts for Henne. More attempts, more experience, better effectiveness, Henne should definitely be on your high upside list. I don’t have him listed as a top 15 quarterback, but he could end up there and if you have a low end QB1 (McNabb, Eli Manning, Cutler), Henne would make a nice backup.

QB Mark Sanchez- NYJ

ADP: 126th

Sanchez struggled in his rookie year, statistically, though he did lead his team to the AFC Championship game, but he had 20 picks in 364 attempts, which is not good by any stretch of the imagination. That being said, he was a rookie and we’ve seen rookies bounce back from bad rookie years to have good sophomore years before. Sanchez has the talent and he certainly has the supporting cast, so he has the potential to be a low end QB1. Pair him with another low end QB (McNabb, Eli Manning, Cutler).

QB Matt Stafford- DET

ADP: 128th

Basically the same story with Sanchez, but I think Stafford is more talented and has less of a supporting cast. A full season of the Megatron helps though. Calvin Johnson missed time and was relatively ineffective while on the field thanks to injuries last year. He could break out so he has some upside as a high upside QB2. His potential is as a low end QB1 so pair him with another low end QB1 like I said with Sanchez and Henne (McNabb, Manning, Cutler, you know the drill). 

RB Montario Hardesty- CLE

ADP: 128th

7/24/10: Every news source in Cleveland is reporting that 2^nd round pick Hardesty will be the lead back for the Browns this year and that he’s getting the bulk of the 1^stteam carries already. If he gets 200 carries, he could be good for 800 rushing yards, 1000 total yards, and a few scores.

WR Johnny Knox- CHI

ADP: 112th

8/31/10: After 3^rd preseason games, Knox is clearly the top wide receiver in Chicago’s offense. 

8/12/10: I’m hearing from many sources that the 2^nd year receiver is playing amazingly in camp and looks like the favorite to win the #1 receiver job over Devin Aromashodu and Devin Hester. He won’t be a true #1 because the Bears will throw the ball all over the field, but with his speed he’s perfect for Mike Martz’ scheme and he looks like the favorite to lead the Bears in receiving.

Updated 4/4/12

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