Year: 2012

Mailbag

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

Q: After Baldwin (PITT) got a short list of top WR’s n Big East??

A: Yeah, it’s a really short list. The list almost ends with Baldwin. Armon Binns from Cincinnati is a name to look out for, but other than that, it’s a pretty thin conference WR wise. There could always be someone who does the Marshawn Gilyard thing and steps up in a big way out of nowhere.

Q: Why isn’t Robert Quinn a good fit as a 3-4 OLB?

A: 270 pounds is widely regarded as too big to play 3-4 outside linebacker, plus the position as a whole is pretty much a crapshoot because it doesn’t exist in college for the most part. If anything, Quinn is too talented to draft and try to move to a position he’s never played before. Vernon Gholston was regarded as a player who couldn’t bust, but he did because he had to move to 3-4 outside linebacker.

Q: Ryan Williams is my pre season Heisman pick. What say you?

A: Williams certainly could, but you can’t underestimate the effect of Darren Evans (who looked like a future Heisman in his own right as a Freshman in 2008) coming back from injury and what that could do to his carrries. I still say Mark Ingram has to be the favorite, but you can’t count out any of the quarterbacks, Terrelle Pryor, Ryan Mallett, Jake Locker, Andrew Luck, and Jacory Harris. Jacquizz Rodgers is a sleeper too. He’s going to put up a ton of all purpose yards, but will he get the recognition playing for Oregon State that he deserves is the question.

Q: The bears never seem to get any talent..they straight suck at drafting..how long since theyve had a number 1 reciever

A: Never. They’ve never had a #1 receiver, at least not that I can remember.

Q: Why do you think it was a bad thing for the Cardinals to pass on Clausen…me, I’m glad we did.

A: Matt Leinart and Derek Anderson have a combined one good season between them and taking a guy widely projected to be a top 10 pick at either 26 or 47 could have made them the favorites to win that weak division again next year. I have a lot more faith in Clausen than Leinart or Anderson, though we’ll see what those guys have this year.

Q: Packers-Jets in the Jerrydome??

A: Certainly possible. The Packers are my sleeper team and if Sanchy continues to develop at quarterback (meaning doesn’t throw 20 picks again) then you’d have a hard time finding a more stacked team than the Jets. Obviously the Saints and Colts are going to be right there again. They didn’t have great drafts, but then again they didn’t need to. The Cowboys may have more offensive weapons than any team in the league. You can’t count out the Patriots or the Chargers either, and same with the Vikings if Brett Favre returns and don’t sleep on Baltimore either. I can’t remember a year where there have been so many teams that I could see hoisting the trophy at the end of the year.

 

 

 

 

Questions/Comments I get on Twitter/Facebook/Email 

Q: I’m still hoping that if Berry isn’t there at 7 the Browns trade down a few spots

A: He’ll be there. The top 6 is full of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 win teams. None of them are going to spend top 6 money on a safety, even if he is one of the best safety prospects in a long time. I would be very surprised if Berry went top 6. If he isn’t, they’ll try to trade down, but they may have to take a lesser value to do so like last year.

Q: Raiders might actually do something right BY getting Mcnabb..if it happens

A: The only reason McNabb for a 2nd rounder would be a good move for the Raiders is because you know that Al Davis is going to make a bad pick with that 2nd rounder. That’s the sad state that franchise is in. In fact, they might as well trade every pick for a veteran. They almost never make a smart pick, especially early. If the Raiders get McNabb, they get him for one year, unless they franchise him (and piss him off) or way overpay him. McNabb wants a championship and Oakland is not the place that’s going to win it for him. They have way too many other needs and way too screwed up of a front office. McNabb isn’t magic. If he couldn’t win with the good supporting casts he had in Philly, he won’t win in Oakland. The most the Raiders can get from him is one .500+ season. For most teams, that’s not worth a 2nd rounder, but for this team, it is because 2nd rounder are virtually valueless to them.

Q: Would u consider tebow a lock for the second round due to change in his mechanics or will he fall further

A: At the end of the day, some one will grab him in the 2nd round, whether it’s Jacksonville trading back up into the 2nd to take him, or New England taking him as an ATH, or Green Bay taking him as an ATH, or Minnesota looking at him as a replacement for Favre.

Q: How much better do you honestly see Detroit and Chicago getting

A: For all Chicago has done, I don’t think they are much better. They will get better next year just because Brian Urlacher will be back from injury and because Jay Cutler will have more time getting familiar with his receivers and that offense. That being said, their offensive line and receivers are atrocious. Jay Cutler barely has any one to throw to and he will barely get any time in the pocket behind that line, which, in Mike Martz’ vertical attack, is not a good thing. They have two decent running backs, but their offensive line isn’t going to help them out a lot and they still have major holes in their secondary. Julius Peppers helps, but he’s not going to turn this team around by himself.

Detroit could be a sleeper next year, if they draft Russell Okung. This front 7 is actually pretty decent. Kyle Vanden Bosch should have a good year in Jim Schwartz’ system. Cliff Avril is a good pass rusher. Sammie Lee Hill is promising. Corey Williams was a steal of a trade. He’s great in a 4-3. Ernie Sims, Julian Peterson, and DeAndre Levy at linebacker were the strength of the defense last year. Their secondary is still a bit of a mess, but if they can get more young playmakers in the secondary, along with a better pass rush, this pass defense won’t be as atrocious next year. Offensively, you have your franchise quarterback with some good receivers. If you can protect him and he develops as he should, this is a 7-8 win team next year with good promise for the future. They’re still a 2-3 year project before they get to the playoffs and start winning 9,10, 11 games, but they’re heading in the right direction finally. 

 

 

Various questions I get asked

 

“im not sold on these other qbs..bradford is overrated and clausen is a punk wouldnt surprise me if clausen went to pro day in a white limo” (From Twitter)

And if he does, does that make him a bad quarterback? As long as he follows the law, doesn’t get suspended, and doesn’t get into fights with teammates/team official, I don’t care what a player does with his free time as long as he’s 100% football when necessary, games/practice/film study. He’s had an amazing year, in a pro style offense, at age 20, with about half the talent that Tebow/McCoy/Bradford (in 2008) had around them, despite playing through a foot injury. The only major concerns with Clausen are that he could be a one year wonder. He had a horrible sophomore year before his amazing junior year, but I really did see a changed quarterback from 2008 to 2009 in terms of his on the field maturity and decision making so I think he could be changed for good. The other concern is that he didn’t win a lot of close games. All of Notre Dame’s losses were by 7 or fewer points so while Clausen played amazing, if he had played just a little bit better when it mattered, his 4th quarter stats were a bit lower, his team could have been 8-4 or 9-3. However, I’m not going to make mountains out of molehills with those. Clausen is still a very capable NFL quarterback.

“Where’s LT going?” (From anonymous)

Depends on how much he wants to play. He says he wants to win a Super Bowl, but if playing time is an issue for him as well his options could be limited, and by limited I mean very limited. New England is the only place that makes sense given those two necessary qualifications. If he doesn’t mind being a #2 guy, his options widen up. Philadelphia, who just released Brian Westbrook, could make sense. LT can still pass block and pass catch well, which seems to be all Andy Reid cares about in a back, and he could also be that goal short yardage guy they need. However, I’m not sure the Eagles would swap out one old vet for another, Westbrook for LT. I don’t know how much of an upgrade LT would be over Westbrook and you don’t just release Westbrook, a face of the franchise, unless you want to get younger at the position or upgrade the position and I’m not sure LT does either. Other interesting possibilities, Pittsburgh (Willie Parker is a free agent and sucked all last year), Houston (not necessarily a contender per se, but they’re on the rise and need running back help, also LT is from Texas), and Minnesota (imagine Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, and LT on the same field, a marketer’s dream).

“What do you think the chances are of the Bucs getting Berry? I hope they do.” (From emailer)

Berry makes some sense there with Head Coach Raheem Morris being a former defensive backs coach, but I’d only do that if both McCoy and Suh were off the board. Those two guys fill so much of a bigger need, play positions that rank higher in terms of positional value, and are overall better prospects (slightly). Even if both are off the board, Berry is a risk because of his position. There’s a reason no one has taken a safety in the top 3 since 1991. If you take a safety in the top 3 and he doesn’t become a perennial Pro Bowler, you wasted a pick. I love Berry’s talent and upside, but if he’s even just an above average player (great not excellent), he’s not worth that pick, and you look foolish. There are plenty of great safeties in the league, but the excellent ones, the elite ones, guys like Troy Polamalu and Ed Reed, are the rare ones and those are the ones that really change a defense and take them to the next level. If the Bucs take Berry at 3, they better hope he becomes that type of player and not an Adrian Wilson or Kerry Rhodes (great, but not excellent).

“Who are your draft sleepers?” (From Twitter)

Depends what you mean by that. If you mean sleepers by players I have rated higher than other people, Damian Williams of USC is the first one on my mind. Solid consistent hands, excellent route running, NFL ready, knows how to get open and makes all of the catches, quietly had a 1000 yard year this year with a freshman quarterback in a pro style offense, good height, lacks elite strength and speed, but he also has a very humble nature (part of the reason for the lack of hype). He’s everything you could want out of a future #1 option. He’s the most NFL ready wide receiver in this draft class. The Seahawks and Pete Carroll, who has experience with Williams at USC, should consider him at 14. He’s my top wide receiver and, by comparison, I couldn’t even vote for him as top receiver on ESPN because he wasn’t one of the ten choices. Other guys, Rafael Priest of TCU, Bill Stull of Pittsburgh, Jermaine Cunningham of Florida, and Mike Neal of Purdue, are all guys I have rated significantly higher than most places.

If you mean guys who could shoot up draft boards and go higher than you think, you have to look at small school guys who are getting their first national attention this week at the combine. Jared Veldheer is the name that sticks out. Tiny school playing for Division II Hillsdale, but hasn’t missed all start in his entire career, 4 year starter, and I think, though the numbers might not be accurate, that he gave up a grand total of like one or two sacks in his career at Hillsdale. He’s got elite NFL size, 6-8 or 6-9 and 325 pounds. I’ve never seen him play because of his small school, and I don’t think most NFL scouts have either, and I have him currently penciled in late in the 3rd to Dallas, but once he shows himself on a national stage on the combine, he could be an early 2nd rounder. If what I’ve heard of him is true, he could be very dominant in drills and he’s reportedly a physical freak who could run a 5.02-5.08 40 at the combine at 6-9 325. Al Davis will literally shit his diaper if that happens.

Send me an email 

 

Mackenzy Bernadeau DAL

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

People who read this website often know I know a ton about football, so it’s not often I say this. But who the hell is this? Why did the Cowboys give him 11 million over 4 years. Did someone else offer him 10 million over 4 years? Who were they bidding against?

He hasn’t made a start since 2010 and ProFootballFocus said he played a mere 125 snaps for Carolina last season. With Livings and Bernadeau in the fold, the Cowboys have given starting caliber money to 2 non-starting caliber guards. They will reportedly make a decision on Kyle Kosier after the draft, either moving him to center or releasing him. That suggests they could still be holding out for David DeCastro at 14 with Bernadeau and Livings as backup plans, but still.

Grade: F

 

Luke Kuechly Scout

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

Middle Linebacker

Boston College

6-3 242

Draft board overall prospect rank: #7

Draft board middle linebacker rank: #1

Overall rating: 91 (Top 10 pick)

40 time: 4.50

Games watched: Clemson/Boston College, Boston College/Maryland

Positives

·         Incredibly productive (534 tackles, 35.5 for loss, 2.5 sacks, 10 pass deflections, 7 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles in just 3 years)

·         3 year starter

·         Incredibly consistent (double digit tackles in every game but 4, 9+ tackles in every game but 2, both of which were the first 2 games of his collegiate career)

·         Leader on and off the field

·         Excellent motor

·         Excellent work ethic

·         Intelligence

·         Passion

·         All the intangibles

·         Takes excellent routes to the ball

·         Excellent tackle technique

·         Rarely misses a tackle

·         A nose for the football

·         Very good in coverage – particularly in zone

·         Makes plays on the ball in the air

·         Reads the quarterbacks’ eyes

·         Instinctive

·         Excellent, fluid hips

·         Gets deep in his drops in coverage

·         A willing and capable special teamer

·         Literally did everything for Boston College (4 down linebacker, who played every type of special teams imaginable)

·         Great athleticism (4.50 40, 38 inch vertical, 10-2 broad jump)

·         Good bench press numbers (27 reps of 225)

Negatives

·         Not as good at shedding blocks as you’d expect

·         Not a pass rusher

·         Not a big hitter (only 2 forced fumbles)

·         Only average on field strength

·         Plays a position of low value

·         Might be too small for some 3-4 defenses

NFL Comparison: Jerod Mayo

Luke Kuechly might be the cleanest player in this draft class. He has everything you love in a linebacker. He’s a phenomenal tackler who has 534 tackles in just 3 years, with 10+ tackles in 34 of 38 games and 9+ tackles in each of his last 9. He’s got all the intangibles. He never comes off the field. He has a great motor, great intelligent, great leadership, great work ethic, great passion and love of the game, and he’s squeaky clean off the field. He’s a phenomenal athlete with 4.5 speed and above average leaping ability, as well as above average bench press strength. He’s also excellent in coverage so he can play all 3 downs (4 if you count special teams).

His weaknesses are minor. He’s a tad bit undersized for some 3-4 defenses and he’s not great at shedding blockers, though in today’s NFL neither of those things are big deals. He isn’t a big hitter, with only 2 forced fumbles, but he more than makes up for that with all of his other production. He’s not a pass rusher, but he covers so well that it doesn’t matter. He’s the first non-rush linebacker I’ve ever given a top 10 grade and I think he has a solid chance to go there on draft day.

He’ll probably come off the board sometime between 9 and 12 as Carolina at 9, Buffalo at 10, Kansas City at 11, and Seattle at 12 will all have interest. I have him to Seattle, but I acknowledge that all of the other 3 are options. He reminds me a lot of another linebacker who went very high in the draft, Jerod Mayo, who the Patriots surprisingly took 10th overall in 2008.

Mayo has more than lived up to that draft pick with 501 tackles in 4 years (59 career games). He’s also been very good in coverage and when he’s rarely missed a game, his absence is noticeable. He’d played in both a 3-4 and a 4-3 for New England. Kuechly is best fit in a 4-3, but can play in some 3-4s, which is why Kansas City (a 3-4 team run by Scott Pioli, who was on New England’s staff when they took Mayo) is a frequently mocked destination for him.

Kuechly is one of 6 elite talents in this draft class in my eyes (Luck, Griffin, Kalil, Richardson, DeCastro, and Kuechly), but will be devalued because of his position. Position aside, he’s the 5th best player in this draft class. Position factored in, I have him 7th in that 2nd tier with guys like Richardson (also hurt by his position) Coples, Mercilus, Claiborne, Floyd, and Blackmon, all 2nd tier talents.

 

LSU/Western Kentucky

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

Spotlight #1: Western Kentucky RB Bobby Rainey

Spotlight #2: LSU G Will Blackwell

1st quarter

13:11: Blackwell with a pancake block to help seal a big hole for the back.

12:30: Blackwell powers a guy forward to open up some space on 2nd and 32.

11:09: Rainey doesn’t have a lot of space, powers forward for 4.

8:01: Rainey helps chip block.

7:18: Rainey on a pitch to the outside, not a lot of room, good open field tackle by Mathieu. 3 yards.

6:18: Jordan Jefferson hits Reuben Randle with a bullet in stride, 53 yard touchdown, Jefferson threw the ball accurately at least 50 yards, good play by Randle as well.

6:07: Rainey up the middle, one cut, not much happening, 3 yards.

4:17: Rainey split out wide, matched up with Morris Claiborne, runs a good curl route, Claiborne slips, easy pitch and catch for the first. Claiborne seems to slip a lot.

3:38: Rainey bounces to the outside, good vision, good run, 6 yards.

2:36: Rainey sees space to the outside, tries to bounce out, but a good play by the defensive tackle to stop him for a gain of a couple yards.

1:11: Rainey with another helpful chip, also on the play, Claiborne almost has a pick off a teammate’s deflection.

1:06: Rainey bounces for a few.

2nd quarter

13:43: Jefferson with another pretty deep ball, this one just dropped by the receiver, tough catch, but needed to be made. Nice throw by Jefferson.

13:27: Rainey with some room up the middle, lacks good explosion here, 3 yards. Little fight.

12:48: Rainey with 3 again, makes one guy miss, runs into a pile.

9:57: Rainey split out wide again, catches it short of the sticks with a man draped on him, stretches out for the 1st, just short, good effort. Might have been a bad spot too.

9:02: Rainey with a good block before going into his route.

8:03: Rainey with a good shove to throw the pass rusher off his trajectory and give his quarterback some more time.

5:13: Jefferson with back to back pretty deep throws. Right on the money. He’s throwing well tonight.

3:22: Rainey not a lot of space, does the best he can, 4 yards.

2:37: Rainey up the middle into traffic, 1 yard.

1:18: Rainey with a cut block. Brandon Taylor also with a pick on the play, wiped out by off sides.

1:01: Rainey struggles with blitz pickup this time, quarterback hit as he throws.

0:56: Rainey powers up the middle on a draw to convert 3rd and 5. Good last effort.

0:43: Western Kentucky quarterback sacked on the same blitz play. Rainey still struggling with blitz pickup.

0:40: Rainey tackled for a loss as soon as he gets the handoff. Nothing he could have done there. Same cornerback blitz again. No one picking that guy up.

0:32: Rainey takes a pitch for a short gain, almost fumbled, LSU recovers, overturned on an official challenge, but Rainey still needs to be more careful.

 

3rd quarter

14:56: Rainey gets the carry, bounce once, nothing happening, 1 yard.

13:10: Claiborne thrown on, incomplete.

13:06: Rainey up the middle for 3.

11:02: Jefferson deep to Randle again, just deflected at the last second, another nice ball by Jefferson, but a better play by the defensive back. Would like to see Randle get just a little bit more separation from a small school cornerback too.

10:58: Blackwell seals a hole for the back.

9:11: Randle just short of a touchdown. Extends, but just short.

8:47: Claiborne with a touchdown saving tackle on the kick return.

8:18: Rainey with his best run of the night. 1st and goal on the 9, cuts to the outside, powerful 7 yard run, almost scores.

6:53: Rainey taken out in the goal line package again.

5:22: Jordan Jefferson takes a safety, first brain fart of the game.

5:11: Rainey up the middle for 4. They just haven’t been able to get him in any space.

4:31: Rainey for another 2. Same story.

3:42: Rainey targeted under pressure, double covered, deflected and picked. Not Rainey’s fault.

2:42: Rainey finally finds space, good vision and cut to run for 14 yards.

2:13: Rainey with poor vision this time to not bounce outside and run into a wall for little to no gain.

1:28: Rainey good in space for solid gain, could have been more than the 7 he picked up, but a great play by LSU to bring him down from behind. Still above average speed.

0:00: Jefferson does a great job of scrambling, extending the play, hitting receiver on the mark for a big gain on the run.

4th quarter

14:59: Randle targeted in the end zone again, another good play by the defensive back to deflect it. Derrius Brooks is doing a solid job on him.

13:52: Blackwell on a good 2nd level block on a rushing touchdown.

13:43: Rainey falls forward for a gain of 1 or so.

13:01: Rainey to the outside in little space for 2 yards.

11:48: Blackwell opens a big hole for the back.

10:16: Blackwell with a good cut block.

5:28: Rainey dances up the middle for a few.

4:50: Rainey finds a small hole, dives forward, almost converts 2nd and 6. Just short.

4:12: Not a big hole for Rainey at all, finds enough room to dive forward for the 1st on 3rd and 1 up the middle.

3:37: Rainey good explosion on the outside for a gain of 7 or so, wiped out by an illegal motion penalty.

3:02: Rainey up the middle, one cut, finds a seam, good run, gets extra yards with a stiff arm for 12 or so on 1st and 15. 15 extra yards on a late hit out of bounds.

1:55: Rainey tackled for a loss of 17 on a designed running back pass, still good effort breaking several tackles to try to extend the play before taking the “sack.”

0:00: Bobby Rainey is one of college football’s leading rushers with 1695 yards and 13 touchdowns on 369 carries in 2011 and 1649 yards and 15 touchdowns on 340 carries in 2010. In this one, he was facing one of the toughest run defenses in the league, LSU. Rainey’s final total was 85 yards on 28 carries, but he had one 7 yard carry brought back by penalty and lost another 17 yards on a play that was really a sack as it was a designed pass. Take those into account and he rushed for 109 yards on 28 carries (3.89 YPA).

Compare that to some of the totals of some of the other NFL prospects at future NFL prospects at running back that LSU has faced and Rainey stacks up pretty well. LaMichael James had 54 yards and a score on 18 carries (3.00 YPA). Vick Ballard had 38 yards on 10 carries (3.80 YPA). Tauren Poole had 70 yards and a score on 19 carries (3.68 YPA). Michael Dyer had 60 yards on 12 carries (5.00 YPA). Trent Richardson had 89 yards on 23 carries (3.87 YPA). Compare to their season total, 2.61 YPA (3rd in Division 1) and 85.46 yards total (3rd in division 1) and Rainey had a good game that will weaken the “he never played anyone” criticism that will be surrounding him come draft season.

Rainey did a good job of getting positive yardage on almost every carry. He did have two carries for more than a loss of a yard or so, but on one he was had by an unpicked up blitz as soon as he got the ball and on the other he actually broke several tackles trying to extend the play on a halfback pass. However, he lacked big play ability in this one and he rarely went over 5 yards or so. Some of this had to do with LSU’s stingy run defense. On several occasions, it looked as if he would break loose, but great individual efforts by LSU’s defensive players prevented that. However, he seemed to lack explosiveness and he didn’t show a ton of fight. He’s got good vision, but he goes down on first contact too much for my taste, at least in this game. He was also taken out on the goal line on several occasions.

Rainey also struggled with blitz pickup. He showed himself to be a willing and a capable blocker, but on blitzes, he really had trouble reading where the pressure was coming from and picking it up, leading to a sack and a quarterback hit, though not entirely his fault. Rainey comes from the Sun Belt where he doesn’t see a lot of exotic defensive schemes and plays so it makes sense he’d be inexperienced in blitz pickup. Nonetheless, it’s something he’ll need to work on.

Western Kentucky’s offense was run heavy throughout the game. That’s their style of play. They run the same run heavy West Coast offense that Stanford and the San Francisco 49ers run, but without the luxury of having someone like Andrew Luck, so obviously they run a lot. Their best offensive player also happens to be their back. They didn’t pass much in this game, even when they were down big. Their quarterback went 11 of 24 for 97 yards and a pick. He had another pick by Brandon Taylor wiped out by penalty. The pick that counted was on a forced ball to Rainey.

Morris Claiborne had yet another near flawless game in coverage. He was thrown away from all game and only allowed 1 completion when he slipped on a curl route covering Rainey split out wide. Slipping seems to be a trend for Claiborne, but other than that, he remains a near perfect cornerback prospect and should be a top 10 pick in April.

Rainey was Western Kentucky’s 2nd leading receiver with 2 catches for 15 yards. He had the aforementioned play against Claiborne where he ran a very nice curl route and got a reception against one of the best cornerbacks in the league. He was frequently lined up split out wide or in the slot, where he had his 2nd catch. His team has a lot of confidence in him as a pass catcher and a route runner doing that and he proved that to me in this one. On the season, Rainey is actually his team’s 2nd leading receiver with 36 catches for 361 yards and 4 scores.

Overall, Rainey had a good game, but he’s far from a perfect prospect. Lack of tough competition does still hurt him coming out of the Sun Belt, even with a good game here. There will also be questions about why he couldn’t get a scholarship at a major college program coming out of high school. Also, his lack of experience against exotic defenses and blitzes will hurt him at the next level. He’s a good in between the tackles runner and has solid speed, but lacks initial explosiveness and needs to show more fight. He’s a great receiver and a willing blocker and extremely proven against lesser competition, but one does have to wonder how he’ll respond in the NFL after 709 carries in the last 2 seasons. He’s also 24, which hurts him some. He looks like a late rounder at the moment.

Offensively for LSU, it was a run heavy attack once again, especially with a big lead for most of the game. They rushed for 294 yards and 4 scores on the ground on 40 carries, with 4 different players getting 5 or more carries, including quarterback Jordan Jefferson. The offensive line played well, including left guard Will Blackwell.

Blackwell was named an AP All-American 2nd teamer, but is not projected much higher than the mid to late rounds because of his lack of size at 6-4 290 and his lack of athleticism to make up for it, but he showed himself to be a good run blocker in this one. He’s got great technique and is a proven college football player and had a great game here, albeit against weak competition. However, he’s been opening up holes for this team all year, even against Alabama and could be a mid to late round steal for a zone blocking team that doesn’t mind smaller offensive linemen. Run blocking is his forte, while pass protection was actually a bit of a mixed back for LSU who didn’t pass much in this game. He also did not look that athletic.

LSU’s passing game was effective as well, just not used all that much out of lack of necessity. Jordan Jefferson had a great game going 8 of 14 for 169 yards and a score and that doesn’t tell the whole story. He had one deep ball dropped and another deflected by a great play by the defensive back. In general, LSU receivers dropped about 2 or 3 or so of his 6 incompletions. He had at least a handful of impressive NFL caliber throws and showed a strong arm with great accuracy on the deep ball, including one where he looked like Big Ben, extending the play and throwing accurately deep on the run. I know it wasn’t the toughest of defenses and Western Kentucky had to sell out on the run, but those throws looked like they would have been big completions against any defense. He threw very well.

Consistency is the problem for him. He looked absolutely awful when I spotlighted him against Georgia, going 5 of 13 for 30 yards and looking very confused by Georgia’s talented 3-4 defense. He doesn’t have the best grasp of the mental parts and the technique parts of the game and accuracy generally is a problem for him. In this game, he had one brain fart moment when he took a safety, but generally he has like 2 or 3 at least. He’s also got the off the field stuff after being arrested to start the season. He’s a winner, but he’s got a great supporting cast.

His numbers in 3 years are decent, but not great. In 2009, he completed 61.5% of his passes for an average of 7.3 YPA with 17 touchdowns to 7 picks. In 2010, he regressed completing just 56.5% for 6.8 YPA and 7 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. This year, he is competing 60.2% of for an average of 8.2 YPA and 6 touchdowns to 1 pick for undefeated LSU. There’s definitely upside here. He’s got an NFL frame and an NFL arm and definitely flashes on tape, but he’s nothing more than a late round developmental prospect.

Jefferson’s favorite target was Reuben Randle. He had 3 catches for 76 yards and a touchdown and was a frequent red zone target of Jefferson. He had 2 touchdowns deflected and almost scored on another play that he was just short of the goal line on. Conceivably, he could have had 4 touchdowns in this game. On the season, the 6-4 junior has 50 catches for 904 yards and 8 touchdowns on a conservative offense and definitely flashes on top, but I still contend he would be best off returning to school for his senior year. Consistency is a problem for him and he’s far from a finished product.

 

LSU/Mississippi State

stevenlourie Uncategorized

 

Spotlight #1: Mississippi State RB Vick Ballard

Spotlight #2: LSU G T-Bob Hebert 

1st quarter

14:53: First play of the game, Vick Ballard gets stuff in the backfield. Nowhere to go for him because LSU’s defensive line just overpowered Mississippi State’s.

13:58: Hebert gets good push on his first snap. He’s at left guard by the way.

12:41: Hebert gets beaten pretty badly. It would be have a tackle for a loss had the running back not broken the tackle.

11:50: Hebert with a nice cut block in the 2nd level.

7:17: Hebert beaten early, but able to use his agility to recover. This is a concern however. He’s getting beaten off the snap frequently and not using his hands well immediately.

6:51: Hebert with the pancake block on a short running play.

5:26: Ballard with the powerful 6 yard first down run.

4:07: Ballard solid on a pass block.

 

2nd quarter

10:22: Ballard with a big run on a counter against a cornerback blitz. He ran well, but he had a huge hole.

9:03: Ballard gets open and catches a pass on 3rd and 8 for a 13 yard catch and a first down.

8:45: Ballard almost breaks one, but tripped up at the last second.

8:14: Ballard runs an excellent route out of the backfield and catches it on the run for a first down. Ballard only caught 10 passes last year, but already has 7 in 2 plus games this year. If he keeps this up, he could be a 3 down back at the next level.

6:31: Anthony Johnson, LSU’s freakishly athletic freshman defensive tackle, with an excellent tackle for loss. He’s 315 pounds and runs in the 4.8 He may be only a freshman, but you can be assured he’ll make Al Davis shit his pants at The Combine in a few years. He is someone to watch into the future, but he’s not eligible until 2014.

5:54: Ballard was taken out for a few snaps late on that last drive before the punt so I focused more on Chris Relf. I was originally going to spotlight Relf tonight before Ballard’s strong night last week. He ended last season hot and I pegged him as a potential Cam Newton, someone who comes out of nowhere to win a Heisman. He didn’t prove himself to be that in his first few games and he’s had a shaky night tonight. He’s an excellent athlete (6-4, 245, 4.6), but he’ll probably have to play another position at the next level. He’s had some moments, but he doesn’t look like much of a quarterback tonight. He has poor pocket presence. He’s a run first quarterback. He hasn’t thrown far down field either. He’s a late round project and nothing more.

5:21: Hebert slips on a 2nd level block and allows his man to get to the ball carrier.

0:42: Ballard dances around in the backfield, finds a hole in the defense and explodes forward for 10 yards on first down. Nice patience and vision.

0:00: Cameron Lawrence, outside linebacker for Misssissippi State, is continuing a strong season. He had a strong first half. He had 14 tackles, 3.5 for a loss, and a sack against Auburn last week after missing the opener against Memphis. He’s just a junior and probably won’t come out this year and he’s undersized at 6-2 230, but he’s someone to keep your eye on in the future.

3rd quarter

11:31: Morris Claiborne with a phenomenal play for an interception. He looked like a wide receiver there. I’m not spotlight him, but he’s a consensus first round pick.

10:59: Pancake block by Hebert.

7:05: Ballard with an excellent blitz pickup. He’s shown great hands as a blocker and a receiver tonight, keys for a young running back.

4:34: Hebert whiffs on a cut block.

3:28: Hebert gets knocked over.

2:36: Hebert allows a tackle for a loss. He gets completely blown past by a pass rush, barely even able to get a hand on him and he does it way too late.

1:32: Relf only has 4 yards on 14 rushes. I don’t know why they keep running draw plays for him. Ballard is the much better runner and this isn’t allowing him to get into a rhythm. He only has 31 yards on 8 carries as a result, but he’s ran better than that, he just can’t get into a rhythm. He’s also facing a tough LSU run defense.

4th quarter

12:30: Hebert on a nice 2nd level block. If there’s one thing he does better than average, it’s blocking on the 2nd level. He’s also got solid agility.

10:00: Chris Relf appears to have been benched. Maybe Mississippi State realized that their “QB draw, QB draw, incomplete pass” offense doesn’t work against LSU. Relf sucks. Let’s see if Ballard gets any more action now. Relf’s final line (presumably) 11 for 17 for 96 yards, a pick, and 10 rushing yards on 14 carries. He showed poor pocket presence and poor passing ability all night. He’s not a quarterback.

5:04: Morris Claiborne with his 2nd pick of the night. Maybe Tyler Russell is worse than Chris Relf. Relf would just get stuffed for a loss over and over. Russell actually throws picks. He’s 0-3 with a pick.

0:00: Ballard rushed for 968 yards and 19 touchdowns on 186 carries in 2010 and 301 yards and 4 touchdowns on 31 carries in the first 2 games of 2011, but tonight his line wasn’t as impressive. He rushed for just 38 yards on 10 carries tonight.

However, he was better than that would suggest. Mississippi State’s offense was terrible tonight because of poor play by quarterback Chris Relf and a very confused gameplan that failed to adjust when it wasn’t working. Also, LSU’s defensive line completely dominated Mississippi State’s offensive line. Couple those two things together and Ballard didn’t get a lot of carries, couldn’t get into a rhythm, was running against 8 man fronts, and running against a front 7 that was dominating his offensive line.

Ballard showed himself to be a good blocker and also caught a team leading 3 passes (not kidding) for 32 yards. He now has 8 catches in 3 games this season after just 10 catches last year. He’s a good blocker and an improving pass catcher, two very good things. He’s not the fastest runner, but at 220 pounds, he’s a physical runner and he shows nice explosion. Provided he bounces back in his next game and has a strong rest of the season, he looks like be a solid mid round pick. Running back committees are getting more and more popular in the NFL every year. Ballard looks like he could be a productive part of a committee in the NFL.

As for Hebert, he proved himself to be a good 2nd level blocker and an agile player at 304 pounds. However, he was extremely inconsistent, failed to get a consistent push, and he made several mistakes. He only allowed one tackle for a loss and no sacks, but it could have been a lot worse. Whiffs on blocks were way too common. Also was too common was Hebert falling down. He’s got off the field issues as well. I don’t think this borderline prospect is draftable.

 

LSU/Florida

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Spotlight #1: LSU CB Morris Claiborne 

Spotlight #2: Florida DT Jaye Howard 

1st quarter

7:10: Jaye Howard is able to get into the backfield on the goal line, but he’s not able to bring down the ball carrier on his first effort. On his second effort, he gets a combined tackle with another defender.

4:37: Claiborne explosive on a combined tackle for loss. He hasn’t been thrown on today yet.

3:51: Claiborne has a run go to his side, and he’s pushed out of the way for a big gain by the speedy Chris Rainey.

2:15: Claiborne is finally thrown on, quarterback goes deep against him and its way overthrown. Claiborne had good position on the receiver anyway. Nice job.

1:08: Howard gets completely outmuscled. He’s supposed to be the nose tackle for Florida, but he’s having major trouble tonight with LSU’s physical offensive line.

2nd quarter

10:45: Howard outmuscled again. He’s occasionally getting double teamed, but he’s been getting dominated all night.

0:00: Claiborne has only been targeted once this half and it was an overthrow and a good coverage. Maybe they’ll throw on him more in the 2nd half.

 

3rd quarter

9:55: Claiborne thrown on, leaves a guy wide open, but the throw is bad.

6:04: Howard with an off sides penalty. He’s been pulled from the game for the time being. He’s having an awful game.

0:40: Claiborne shoves a guy out of bounds while running a route, Claiborne stumbles doing so and the receiver, Andre DuBose, runs straight downfield for a touchdown, no penalty on DuBose because he was forced out. This is just a stupid play by Claiborne.

0:36: Claiborne with a mere 14 yard return on the kickoff.

0:31: Howard is back in.

4th quarter

12:23: Morris Claiborne could be the first cornerback off the board in the 2012 NFL Draft, but I’m not sure if he’s even the best cornerback on LSU’s defense. True sophomore Tyrann Mathieu with yet another impressive play, this time a pick. He’s undersized, 5-9 175, but there’s no question he’s one of the best defensive backs in the nation at the age of 19.

9:00: Another talented LSU defensive back, Brandon Taylor has a pass deflection here. He also has a pick and a few nice run plays. He’ll be spotlighted at a later date.

2:06: I haven’t said a lot about Jaye Howard because he’s sucked and gotten benched for a bit. However, Howard is in on a tackle here.

0:00: Jaye Howard is the nose tackle in Florida’s 3-4, but he just got completely overpowered by LSU’s physical offensive line. He sucked tonight and was even benched after a penalty for a few series. He made very few plays tonight and didn’t take on multiple blockers well like he was supposed to. His stock has to be falling after this game and as a guy who was already a day 3 prospect, he could fall into the 6th or 7th round or later if he keeps this up.

As for Morris Claiborne, he made one stupid play that allowed a touchdown, but he played well regardless. However, Florida has so many struggles at quarterback that I don’t know if this was a fair test for Claiborne. The top 3 cornerbacks in this class as Stephon Gilmore, Claiborne, and Dre Kirkpatrick, in no particular order and I’ve spotlighted all 3 but against weak tests. I’m going to make an effort to watch all 3 again, though not spotlighting them, against teams with good quarterbacks. LSU plays Tennessee next week and Tennessee’s quarterback Jim Bray is great. That will be a better test.

 

LSU/Alabama

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Spotlight #1: Alabama OLB Courtney Upshaw

Spotlight #2: Alabama C William Vlachos 

1st quarter

5:56: Vlachos misses a 2nd level block and lets a guy into the backfield on 3rd and 1, but he can’t bring down Richardson by himself.

4:37: Vlachos having a bit of trouble early with LSU’s physical interior line.

0:38: Robert Lester with a pick.

2nd quarter

2:32: Upshaw sheds a block and gets in on a tackle for loss or no gain. He’s been quiet tonight.

1:36: Dre Kirkpatrick puts a big hit on the ball carrier along the sideline.

0:42: Upshaw on a pressure.

0:15: Upshaw forces the quarterback to throw the ball away on the goal line under pressure.

0:01: Hightower with a huge tackle for no gain on the goal line, forcing LSU to go for a field goal.

 

3rd quarter

11:56: Upshaw should have been credited with a sack. He had the quarterback in his grasp for a long time, but the refs did not rule him down.

11:11: Upshaw in on a sack this time. He’s been getting consistent pressure when LSU has dropped back to pass tonight.

9:49: Mark Barron with a pick. Courtney Upshaw got some pressure on the play as well.

4:45: Upshaw in on a tackle for a short gain.

3:24: Upshaw gets into the backfield, but rolled away from. Still a good motor in chase, but not going to be able to make up that ground.

1:07: Morris Claiborne with a pick now.

4th quarter

11:24: Trent Richardson just had another highlight reel run.

1:37: Mark Barron and Courtney Upshaw in on a tackle for loss.

Overtime

0:00: Courtney Upshaw really stood out as a pass rusher in this game, beating both the left and right tackle, whoever he was matched up with, on a consistent basis. He had a sack as well as several key pressures. He didn’t stand out quite as much as a run stopper. He had 6 tackles on the night, but took a few bad routes to the ball. Overall, this game helps his stock I think. He stands out on a consistent basis and makes a ton of splash plays. He’s also versatile and that could make him the top linebacker off the board for either a 3-4 or a 4-3 team. He could go as high as top 15.

Another Alabama linebacker, Dont’a Hightower, also had a huge game. He’s fully healthy now and shows consistent first round talent at 6-4 260, but his injury history could keep him in the 2nd round at the end of the day. He had 7 tackles and several key pressures. He would fit best in a 3-4 as either an inside or any outside linebacker.

The two safeties for Alabama, Mark Barron and Robert Lester, each had a pick. Barron once again had a huge game and made several splash plays. He is cementing his status as the top safety in this class and a potential first round pick. Lester came into the year as a potential first round pick, but he has struggled leading some to believe that he would return for his senior year in an attempt to eventually go in the first round. Tonight, he had a good game. His pick was just his 2nd of the year after 8 last year, but he now has 2 in the last 3 games and he is playing better overall. He looked much better in coverage tonight than he did earlier in the season. He’s still probably a day 2 pick if he comes out.

On the offensive side for Alabama, Alabama left tackle Barrett Jones did a very good job, especially as a run blocking, which is very impressive considering the defense he was playing. He left for a bit with an injury, but played very well before it and displayed his toughness by returning and playing through the injury, though he was not quite as effective post-injury. Hopefully it’s nothing major as he is moving up boards right now and could sneak into the first round the way James Carpenter did last year.

Jones paved the way for Trent Richardson, who didn’t have his best statistical day, rushing for 89 yards on 22 carries, but LSU has one of the best run stopping defenses in the league. He also had 80 receiving yards, displaying his ability to be a 3 down back at the next level. He looks like a top 15 pick in April. Richardson also wasn’t helped out much by Alabama’s William Vlachos. Vlachos, the consensus #3 center in this draft class coming in, could be slipping now and could eventually end up a day 3 pick. He really had trouble with LSU’s interior line, allowing several pressures and struggling with his specialty, run blocking.

To the LSU, Morris Claiborne had a pick and overall outplayed his counterpart Dre Kirkpatrick. Dre Kirkpatrick had another good game and looks like a top 15 pick at either cornerback or safety, but Claiborne had a huge game, in addition to the pick. He had a couple pass breakups and didn’t allow a catch all night. He’s outplayed Kirkpatrick this season and looks like a top 10 pick.

Another draft prospect in LSU’s secondary is safety Brandon Taylor. Taylor, I think, is somehow very underrated. The former cornerback is very fast and makes a bunch of plays. He’s undersized at 6-1 195, but he’s held up against the run when I’ve seen him and he’s a great technique tackle. He had at least one memorable tackle for loss tonight and figures to be a late day 2, early day 3 prospect.

LSU’s Reuben Randle was held to 2 catches, but that’s to be expected. Dre Kirkpatrick was on him all night and unlike against most other cornerbacks, Randle doesn’t have the size advantage against Kirkpatrick. The 6-4 Randle struggled all night, but the good news for him is that there aren’t a lot of 6-3 cornerbacks out there. Randle could still end up a day 2 pick. Despite LSU’s inconsistencies at quarterback, Randle has 35 catches for 657 yards and 7 touchdowns. He’s a big, physical receiver, a great run blocker and end zone threat with good, natural hands. 

 

Louisville/FIU

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Spotlight #1: FIU WR TY Hilton

Spotlight #2: Louisville TE Josh Chichester 

1st quarter

14:53: TY Hilton with the 36 yard return. So fast. Note that it’s “TEAWHY” not “TIE” Hilton.

9:58: Louisville runs to Chichester’s side between the left tackle and Chichester the tight end and he paves the way to a 6 yard run with a nice block.

7:29: Winston Fraser with the pick six for FIU. Always something to take note of. Read the quarterback’s eyes, jumped the route and showed athleticism on the return. He’s a linebacker, but looked like a safety on that play. Undersized and still a junior, but a great play there.

6:48: Another nice run block by Chichester. Uses his long arms to his advantage in a big way.

6:14: Chichester catches the ball on a crossing route and then makes a nice open field run for a 31 yard catch.

5:57: False start by Chichester.

4:47: Chichester fails to bring in a target. It wasn’t a great throw by the quarterback, but it was catchable if he turns around faster. Bad instincts.

0:14: Chichester makes a tough catch going over the middle in coverage. Takes a shot midair, but holds onto the ball.

2nd quarter

13:40: Chichester makes a nice catch in the back of the end zone, but isn’t able to drag his feet to stay in bounds. Tough catch to make.

12:06: TY Hilton catches the ball on a slant and then just blows past the safety and outruns the entire defense for a YAC heavy 74 yard touchdown. He’s so unbelievably fast with the football in his hands.

9:28: TY Hilton blows past everyone down the middle of the field, catches the ball in stride and scores easily for the 83 yards touchdown. Louisville is going to need to play their safeties extremely deep from now on. Hilton is just too fast.

5:49: Hilton catches the ball on the flat, able to get a positive gain, but doesn’t break it for a big gain.

1:54: Chichester wide open over the middle of the field for his 3rd catch. He hasn’t been perfect, but he’s having a nice game. He leads Louisville with 3 catches for 67 yards. He’s a big target at 6-8 240, but he needs to fill out a bit more. He’s had a few nice blocks and he’s got long arms, but he’s not exactly playing against an elite defense. Looks like a mid rounder. We’ll see how the rest of the season plays out for him, however (2 catches in the opener).

3rd quarter

11:14: Hilton with another catch, through the seam for 16 yards. He has 4 catches for 178 yards and 2 touchdowns now. FIU has 10 completions for 219 yards and 2 touchdowns total.

9:50: Hilton with a 5th catch, this time a short 8 yard catch with no major gain after the catch.

5:44: Hilton calls for the fair catch and then tries the return anyway for a 5 yard penalty. Complete mental lapse. He has to know better than that.

4:14: Another catch by Hilton, a 16 yard catch to give him 6 catches for 201 yards on the night. They’ve kept him from the big play in the 2nd half, but he’s still made his impact on shorter routes.

0:35: Chichester with the 20 yard catch. He looks like a big receiver out there.

4th quarter

12:01: Chichester with another catch to give him 5 on the night. The 15 yard catch pushes him over the 100 yard mark to 102 yards.

9:40: Hilton on the screen, goes nowhere.

0:00: Final totals for Hilton, 7 catches for 201 yards and 2 touchdowns. Louisville looked like they had no clue how to defend a deep route in the first half, but they made adjustments in the 2nd half. Hilton was still able to make an impact. He’s extremely fast and can hurt you in so many different ways and he has surprisingly good hands. I’m not ready to call him a #1 receiver or anything, but he looks like a nice slot receiver/kick returner/punt returner who can also hurt you out of the backfield. He also had 181 yards of offense in FIU’s season opener.

As for Chichester, he showed some nice things as a blocker, but he’s still not a great blocker. He’s still mostly a big wide receiver. Remember, that was his former position. He showed some nice hands and route running going over the middle for 5 catches for 102 yards and there’s a lot of upside here with his height and arm length. He doesn’t look like much more than a mid to late rounder, however.

 

London Fletcher Redskins

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A month ago, I would have seen the Redskins signing of London Fletcher to a 2 year, 10.75 million dollar deal with 5.25 million guaranteed as a great deal, but middle linebackers are not being highly valued on this free agency market. Curtis Lofton, David Hawthorne, and Stephen Tulloch all signed for less than I expected.

Fletcher is still a good player, but he’s 37 in May so when you compare what the younger Hawthorne got (5 years, 19 million) and the younger Lofton got (5 years, 27.5 million), Fletcher’s deals slightly overpays him this year, even if it is essentially only a one year deal (little to no guaranteed money after the first year). This is a good deal to resign a team captain and one of the league’s leading tacklers last season, but not a great deal. I feel like he could have been had cheaper over a month after the start of free agency.

Grade: B

 

Logan Mankins Patriots

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51 million with 30 million guaranteed over 6 years is a lot for a guard, but Mankins is worth every penny. He is one of the two or three best guards in the league, if not the best. He played amazingly last season for someone who had been holding out for over half a season. Without a holdout distraction, he should be even better this season and for several seasons in the future.

Grade: A