The Patriots missed out on Red Bryant so they settled for Jonathan Fanene. Fanene was a slightly above average run stuffer and a well below average pass rusher as a situation 4-3 defensive end in Cincinnati. He may be a better fit in a 3-4, which it appears the Patriots will be going back to, but 12 million dollars over 3 years seems like a lot to a largely unproven commodity. Although Belichick does basically get the benefit of the doubt on this one.
Grade: B
Running Back
Georgia Tech
5-11 229
40 time: 4.59
Draft board overall prospect rank: #60
Draft board running back rank: #6
Overall rating: 76*
2/28/10: Dwyer’s workout today proved what his weigh in showed and what people all around the NFL have been saying all week. He’s out of shape. At 5-11 229, Dwyer ran a 4.59, which isn’t awful, but when you consider his second time was 4.69, it looks a lot worse. He also only benched 15 reps, 3rd fewest of all RBs.
2/26/10: He just looked like a fat guy at his weigh in. He was 5-11 229 which sounds good, but he did not look in shape at all.
1/17/10: Excellent size, but he put on a lot of weight from last season to this season and looked a lot more sluggish this year as a result, though his stats don’t suggest he struggled. He also played in a weird offense that just isn’t used in the NFL so you have to wonder how he would have fared statistically being overweight and in a normal offense. However, he’s got all the physical tools and is still projected to run a mid 4.4 40 at 235 pounds which is amazing so someone is going to snatch him early on upside alone.
Update (11/2/09): Putting up great stats to go with his great measurables, 230 pounds, projected to run a low 4.4 40, but he plays in a weird style offense which is a red flag.
6/28/09: Jonathan Dwyer is the closest thing to a feature back in this running back class. If this were 5 years ago when feature backs were still used, instead of running back by committees, Dwyer would be a top ten pick lock. Now, he is far from a top ten lock, though I’d be shocked if he dropped out of the first round. He has that great combination of strength and speed that feature backs need. He is 230 pounds of pure muscle and has amazingly strong legs to blow through the defense. He gets great leverage when he runs and is almost impossible to stop for a loss. Once he gets through the initial set of defenders, he has 4.4 speed. I wouldn’t call him a breakaway back, and he doesn’t have the quickness to make guys miss, but 4.4 speed at 230 is very dangerous in the open field. He can run over defenders. He isn’t great at changing directions in the open field and he doesn’t always see the running lines quite as well as you’d like him to. He’s not much of a threat in the passing game. Still, his combination of speed and size, along with his numbers from last season, speak for themselves. He rushed for 1395 yards and 12 touchdowns on a 7 yards per carry clip.
NFL Comparison: Ron Dayne
*For a breakdown of what this means, click here
Wide Receiver
Pittsburgh
6-4 228
Draft Board Overall Prospect Rank: #18
Draft Board Overall Wide Receiver Rank: #3
Rating: 86 (mid 1st)
40 time: 4.45
2/28/11: I think he’s shed his “possession receiver only tag.” Baldwin looked like an athletic deep threat today with a 4.45 40 at 6-4 228 and a 42 inch vertical.
2/19/11: Jonathan Baldwin was a heavily ranked prospect by ESPN, coming out of high school as an athletic 6-5/6-6 receiver. I think he lived up to that in his 3 years at Pittsburgh. He struggled statistically as a junior, but you can really blame a lot of that on the quarterback. Pittsburgh receiver only caught 230 passes for 2616 yards and 16 touchdowns on the year. Baldwin had 53 catches for 822 yards and 5 touchdowns. So yes, it was a down year from 2009, when, with a legitimate quarterback in Bill Stull, he caught 57 passes for 1111 yards and 8 touchdowns, despite having Dorin Dickerson, the tight end competing with him for catches.
He’s a physically imposing receiver and his kind of soft hands and agility at his height combine to make him the type of player who doesn’t come around very often. He can be a legitimate #1 receiver in the NFL, and I think worst case scenario he ends up as a nice #2 possession receiver and end zone threat. I have him as my 3rd rated wide receiver, after Green and Jones. Some people obviously disagree with me, rating Torrey Smith, Titus Young, and even Leonard Hankerson higher. I’ve seen Baldwin drop into the 2nd round, which could happen, but he’s worth a first round pick.
NFL Comparison: Plaxico Burress
Quarterback
Fordham
6-5 241
40 time: 4.85
Draft board overall prospect rank: #131
Draft board overall quarterback rank: #9
Overall rating: 63*
4/3/10: John Skelton is shooting up draft boards after his Combine and Pro Day as he finally got a chance to show the world, coming out of tiny program Fordham, that he can throw the ball like an NFL quarterback. He’s got a massive cannon for an arm and a huge frame to 6-5 241 that draws him comparisons to Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco. He isn’t as athletic as Big Ben or as mature of a leader as Flacco, but the arm strength is definitely there. His production at Fordham was pretty good, but he played mostly out of the shotgun and he didn’t face a tough level of competition. He doesn’t have good pocket mobility or read blitzes very well, but I like how set his feet are when he throws. He has great deep ball accuracy, but need to improve his short and mid accuracy as he does tend to overthrow guys. His reads and his leadership maturity need to improve as well. Despite being the best quarterback, by far, in his league, he didn’t win a lot being a fairly .500 winner in his career. The fact that he didn’t dominate despite his obvious physical gifts is a bit concerning. He looked amazing throwing at his Pro Day and he has shown many flashes of brilliance at Fordham in his career, but he hasn’t put it all together yet. Teams are reportedly giving him a 3rd or 4th round grade based on his upside alone and I will do something similar because I can see him being a starting quarterback in the NFL someday.
NFL Comparison: Kerry Collins
*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here
Guard
Mississippi
6-5 335
40 time: 5.15
Draft board overall prospect rank: #73
Draft board guard rank: #3
Overall rating: 74*
4/5/10: As you can tell from his measurable size, Jerry is a large dude and a punishing run blocker. He excels in run blocking in man schemes, locking onto a defensive linemen and pounding him into the ground with his brute strength. He’s very durable for his size and is actually in pretty good physical shape. He didn’t appear to wear down late into games as most guys his size would. He was a four year starter in the SEC and never had any issues with injuries. He is dominant from the word “go” and he has been dominant ever since he stepped onto campus. Football is in his blood. His older brother Peria Jerry went 24th overall to the Falcons last year. He really struggles when he has to move a lot and when an agile defender forces him to move his feet to compete with him. He is great one on one in the so called “phonebooth” in the middle of the trenches and is great at directional blocking, forcing his man to go the way he wants him to. However, he has very heavy feet and would not fit a zone blocking scheme that required an athletic guard. He is not a natural knee bender and need some work on his form. Overall, he should be a very good right guard in the right scheme, but that description is one of a 3rd round prospect and nothing more. The rumors that he could go in the 2nd round, I think, are false because he is very limited in terms of the type of player he is. He excels at one thing, but his versatility is very questionable. At the very least though, with his long arms, massive bulk, and good height, he’ll be an asset to a team on short downs, but I think, in the right scheme, this is a starting guard. He has a very good track record blocking for guys like Ben Jarvus Green Ellis and Dexter McCluster, as well as other rushers who got very good holes to run in over the last 4 years at Mississippi.
NFL Comparison: Max Jean Gilles
*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here
This move won’t get a lot of hype, but any time you can pick up a starting caliber player in mid June for cheap (and I’m assuming cheap, because of the time of year, but I could be wrong, the specifics of the deal have not been announced yet) it’s a great move. The Raiders seem to be stockpiling players for a 3-4 defense.
Kamerion Wimbley, who they traded for in the offseason is a natural 3-4 outside linebacker. Trevor Scott, their leader in sacks last year with 7, seems like a better fit as a 3-4 outside linebacker than a 4-3 end. Richard Seymour, who they acquired at the beginning of last season, spent almost all of his career in New England as a 3-4 end. Tommy Kelly fits the 3-4 as an end as well. Their first round pick, Rolando McClain, played in the 3-4 at Alabama and seems like a player who would fit a 3-4 way better than a 4-3. Their second round pick, LaMarr Houston, can play the 3-4 end. And now John Henderson.
Henderson played his career in Jacksonville in primarily a base 4-3, but at 6-7 335, he is a prototypical 3-4 nose tackle. He was released by the Jaguars because of his salary and because, after they drafted Tyson Alualu in the first round, they no longer had need for him, but he can still play. He had 3 sacks last year (which actually led the team believe it or not, just to show you how bad Jacksonville’s pass rush was last year) while remaining very stout against the run. He’s only 31 so he’s not over the hill completely yet, and it was only a one year deal.
With all of those players I mentioned before fitting into a 3-4 system nicely, and the fact that I believe the Raiders likely are going to utilize those players in the best way possible and switch to a base 3-4, the Raiders’ defense looks like a top 12 or top 15 defense in the league next year. There are still a few questions about Jason Campbell’s leadership ability and maturity at the quarterback position, but he’s certainly a huge upgrade over what they had at the position last year. Their receiving corps show some decent young promise, their line might not be completely atrocious this year. I’m not going to go out and say this team will win 8+ games next year, but they could and I certainly would be very surprised if they had their 8th straight 11 loss season this year.
This team is definitely in the right direction and could (gasp) make the playoffs in the near future, given how many free agents the Chargers have next off season. I realize this is more of a rant about how the Raiders have had an overall good offseason than about just the Henderson signing, but I do like the signing, assuming it means they move to a 3-4, because they got a solid starter in mid June on the cheap. Even if they stay with a 4-3, it’s still a solid move value wise.
Grade: A
The Vikings drafted Kyle Rudolph in the 2nd round in 2011 and paired him with soon to be free agent Visanthe Shiancoe at tight end. As a rookie, Rudolph caught 26 passes for 249 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Shiancoe had 36 catches for 409 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Vikings showed very little interest in retaining Shiancoe as a free agent so it appeared Rudolph would take over as the every down tight end in 2012 and rightfully so.
Oh, but what’s this, they signed John Carlson. Okay, that makes some sense. Carlson can come in on two-tight end sets as he tries to prove himself after getting benched and injured in Seattle last season. Plus I bet he was cheap and the Vikings didn’t do anything like…PAY HIM 25 MILLION DOLLARS OVER 5 YEARS WITH 11 MILLION GUARANTEED. For John Carlson?!?!?! The same John Carlson who missed all of last season with injury after getting benched for Zach Miller and putting up 31 catches for 318 yards and 1 touchdowns in 2010 as his team’s primary pass catcher. Sure he had 55 catches and 51 catches in 2008 and 2009, but that was 2008 and 2009. There’s no way in hell anyone else would give him this kind of money and if there was a team willing to do so, let them have him. It’s John Carlson.
Grade: F
In terms of value, I think Joseph was the best cornerback on the market. At 48.75 million dollars over 5 years and 23.5 million guaranteed, Joseph was a much better value than Asomugha at projected 80-85 million over the same amount of time. Joseph is one of the top cornerbacks in the league, but because he’s been stuck in Cincinnati next to Leon Hall, he’s very underrated. He’s also 3 years younger.
I think Houston is the most improved team this offseason and a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Offense wasn’t the problem for them last year with Arian Foster, Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and a great offensive line. Defense was. They’ve improved so much defensively this offseason. They added a legitimate starter through the draft in JJ Watt. They also got Brooks Reed, who will split time with Connor Barwin at rush linebacker, and Brandon Harris, who will be a valuable nickelback for them, through the draft.
They are also getting DeMeco Ryans make from injury. After a terrible rookie year, 2010 1st round pick Kareem Jackson will be better in his 2nd year. Glover Quin can’t possibly be a worse free safety than he was as a cornerback last year. They also added a great defensive coordinator in Wade Phillips. Now they add a legitimate #1 cornerback in free agency. Peyton Manning is hurting in Indy. Why can’t this team win the division and contend for a Super Bowl.
Grade: A
Earlier this offseason, it appeared Abraham would not be back in Atlanta because of his 12 million per year asking price. However, once Mario Williams signed in Buffalo and the market wasn’t quite what Abraham thought it would be, he returned home for a more reasonable rate, 21 million over 3 years. Abraham is 34 in May, but he still had 9.5 sacks last season for a team that managed just 33 sacks as a whole so they needed him back. He can still be a productive player for at least a season or two and as long as there isn’t a ton of guaranteed money on this deal (no word on how much is guaranteed), this is a solid move for a team that didn’t have another option, with no other end of Abraham’s caliber left on the open market and no first round draft pick.
Grade: B
The Cardinals needed rush linebacker help. They have been trying to transition to a 3-4 (smartly making a gradual transition rather than abruptly shifting schemes like the Bills did). As a 3-4 team, they would need to get a ton more pressure from their linebackers. They had 43 sacks last year, but their leaders in sacks from the rush linebacker position were Bert Berry with 6, Clark Haggans with 5, and Chike Okeafor with 4.5 and Berry recently retired. That being said, 17.5 million seems like a lot to pay a soon to be 33 year old rush linebacker. Yes, his 9 sacks would have led the Cardinals last year, but there wasn’t exactly a ton of offers out there for Porter because of his age and how he forced himself out of Miami. The only other team I heard out there interested in Porter was the Redskins, who I could see spending this much for him, but needing to outbid the traditionally cost careless Washington Redskins to get Porter is not an excuse for paying him this much money.
His age hurts the Cardinals in two ways. One, in the most obvious way, he could start to deteriorate very soon. His 9 sacks in 2009 were good, but down 8.5 from his 17.5 in 2008. He should continue slowing down like that and probably won’t finish this deal as a member of the Cardinals. Two, though the Cardinals needed a rush linebacker, they didn’t need another old rush linebacker. Both Haggans and Okeafor are 33 or older also. They needed a shot of youth at the rush linebacker position, to give them a future rush linebacker to pair with Brown, and Porter is certainly not that. I can only hope this doesn’t deter the Cardinals from pursuing guys like Jerry Hughes, who reminds me of a young Joey Porter, in the 2010 NFL Draft. This was not a good use of money.
Grade: C
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