Week 15, this team sat at 8-5 needing just a win in Indianapolis to eliminate the Colts from the divisional race and clinch the team’s first playoff berth since 2007. However, they lost that game and then went on to drop their next two, Washington and Houston, to finish 8-8 and once again out of the playoffs.

It’s worth noting that two of their wins were won on last second fluky plays, a Hail Mary vs. Houston week 10, and a 59 yard field goal week 4 vs. Indianapolis. They could have easily been 7-9 or 6-10 with losses in overtime in either of those games. Other than those two wins, it’s worth noting that their best win in terms of opponent winning percentage was a week 14 38-31 home win over the Oakland Raiders who finished 8-8 and even that win took some last second magic.

Their defense is a mess, especially their pass defense. They rank 32^nd in the league against the pass in terms of YPA, dead last, even worse than division rival Houston. That’s no way to consistently beat elite teams. They also can’t get any pressure either, ranking tied for 2^nd worst in the league with a mere 26 sacks (tied with Tampa Bay and only behind Denver).

Offensively, their prized possession is Maurice Jones Drew. MJD, who battled injured all year, still rushed for 1324 yards and received another 317. He only fell short to Arian Foster in the rushing title race because he missed the last two games of the season with injury. Still, he finished 5^th in the league in rushing despite not breaking the 300 carry mark.

However, at quarterback, David Garrard has his good days and his bad days. There have been the occasional cries by fans for him to be benched, but he does turn in some nice performances. Backup Trent Edwards only has bad days so they may be looking for a new backup/quarterback in waiting this offseason. Mike Thomas is their #1 receiver, but he lacks elite size and his compliment Mike Sims Walker is very inconsistent with his play.

9/6/11: The Jacksonville Jaguars have cut David Garrard 5 games before the season starter, further proving they have no plan. If they had decided to get rid of him a month ago, they could have at least gotten a mid rounder for him (Seattle, Miami, etc.) and they would have had a month to get acclimated to Luke McCown as a starting quarterback. Now they have 5 days and got nothing in return for him. This after spending most of their draft to move up to grab a quarterback for the future and then spending 100 million dollars in the offseason for the present.

At the very least, the front office is sending out mixing signals which is always demotivating for the players. On top of that they have a lame duck had head coach who has just been hung out to dry by the front office. Del Rio needs to make the playoffs this season to save his job and all of a sudden, his starting quarterback is gone. They also don’t have a lot of talent. They ranked 32^nd against the pass last season and 30^th against the run (in terms of YPC and YPA). They have a journeyman quarterback, a poor offensive line, go one deep at wide receiver, and their best player, MJD, isn’t 100%. This could easily be the worst team in the league. They remind me of the 2010 Carolina Panthers. 

All the Jaguars had to do was beat the Colts week 15 and they had the division and the playoffs wrapped up with 2 weeks to spare. However, they didn’t beat the Colts week 15. Then they lost week 16. Then they lost week 17. They ended up missing the postseason entirely, finishing 8-8 as the Colts once again won the division.

In the offseason, they took a weird strategy. Through the draft, they built for the distant future trading away their first 2 picks to move up 6 slots to take Blaine Gabbert as their quarterback of the future. As a result of this, they didn’t have very many picks, especially early picks, and they weren’t able to fill any of their needs (cornerback, safety, wide receiver, defensive end).

However, in free agency, they seemed to be building for now, signing Paul Posluszny, Clint Session, and Dawan Landry all to long term deals worth a lot of money. As a result, you have a team built to win now, but with identity issues. Their starting quarterback, David Garrard, no longer has the support of the coaching staff, never a good thing. Even the great Brett Favre went 4-12 the year after the Packers drafted his successor, Aaron Rodgers. Same with Donovan McNabb, who went 8-8 and finished in last place the season after they drafted Kevin Kolb.

The Gabbert pick is going to look genius if he ends up being their franchise quarterback for 10 years, but it’s going to hurt them this year. If Garrard is benched for Gabbert, Gabbert should struggle as a rookie after a lockout. It doesn’t help that I wasn’t high on Gabbert coming out, so naturally I think he’ll struggle.

The quarterback situation isn’t the only problem they have on offense. Maurice Jones Drew has been their best offensive player for years, since Fred Taylor moved on. However, he’s not 100%. He’ll try to play through a knee injury, but it’s safe to say he won’t be quite as good as he normally is. The Jaguars will be hoping backup running back Rashad Jennings can continue his 5.4 career yards per carry average as he gets more work this season.

At wide receiver things don’t get much better. Mike Thomas is their #1 receiver. He’d be a nice #2 receiver, but he’s not a #1. He doesn’t have game breaking speed and he’s not a great red zone target. He’s a nice possession receiver, but that’s it. Opposite him, Jason Hill is penciled in as a starter. Hill has spent 4 bland seasons as a depth receiver for the 49ers and the Jaguars. He’s only a starter because they don’t have anyone better.

Hill will have some competition for his job, but it’s not like the other candidates are too much better. Cecil Shorts is a 4^th round rookie and the favorite to start in the slot. Jarett Dillard was a 5^th rounder in 2009 who caught 6 passes as a rookie and missed all of his 2^nd season with an injury. Tiquan Underwood could also be in the mix. After being solely a special teamer as a 7^th round rookie in 2009, he caught 8 passes last year. So basically, they don’t have a lot of talent at this position.

Their best receiver last year was Marcedes Lewis. Lewis, a former 1^st round pick at tight end, finally broke out as a receiver last season after 4 years of being known simply as a strong blocker. He was 2^nd on the team in receptions and yards and first in touchdowns, in addition to remaining a strong blocker. However, it’s possible he was just playing for a new contract. It remains to be seen if he can put together another good year now that he’s gotten paid.

On the offensive line, things don’t get a ton better. Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton are the two tackles. They were drafted in the 1^st and 2^nd rounds in 2009 respectively, but neither have really lived up to that. Now in their 3^rd year, they’ll need to start playing better. At right guard, they return Uche Nwaneri, a mediocre guard who allowed 5 sacks last season.

At left guard, they signed another mediocre guard, Jason Spitz, formerly a reserve for the Green Bay Packers. It’s possible that 3^rd round pick Will Rackley could take over for either one of these two at some point this season. Their best offensive lineman is Brad Meester, their center. Meester has been an above average offensive lineman for the Jaguars for 11 seasons, but he’s 34 years old and he’s had injury problems in the past so he’s no guarantee.

Defensively, they should be pretty bad once again, especially against the pass. They ranked 32^nd, dead last, in the league in terms of yards per attempt allowed. They spent a lot of money on free agents on the defensive side of the ball, but I think they overpaid all 3 of their big free agent signings. Clint Session is a marginal outside linebacker. Paul Posluszny will start in the middle. He’s a good player, but I think they also overpaid for him, just a bit. Dawan Landry is an upgrade at safety, but he’s not great in coverage so I don’t think he was worth what they paid him.

I don’t know that their pass defense will be much better. They didn’t upgrade their pass rush, their cornerbacks, or the free safety position. All of their money was spent on two linebackers and a strong safety. Don Carey will once again start at free safety next to Landry. He was the 5^th worst safety in the league in terms of quarterback rating allowed. He allowed an 80% completion percentage and 2 touchdowns to one interception, a huge part of the reason why this pass defense was so bad once again.

At cornerback, Rashean Mathis was the 6^th worst cornerback in the league in terms of quarterback rating allowed. He allowed a completion percentage of 59.1% and 5 touchdowns to 1 interception. Derek Cox, the 3^rd year cornerback, might be their best in pass coverage. However, he’s not a #1 cornerback in this league. He’s best off as a #2 or a nickel back. He’s got good ball skills with 8 picks in 2 seasons, but he gives up too many big plays and commits too many penalties.

Their pass coverage might not be so bad if their pass rush wasn’t terrible. After a mere 14 sacks in 2009, the Jaguars signed Aaron Kampman in the offseason. He tore his ACL, his 2^nd such injury in as many years, and the Jaguars only had 26 sacks, once again among the worst in the league. Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves were supposed to be the future at defensive end after being drafted in the 1^st and 2^nd rounds respectively in 2008. Both disappointed and neither are with the team anymore.

The Jaguars signed Matt Roth in free agency, but he hasn’t played in a 4-3 as a pro and he’s not even that great of a pass rusher anyway. Roth should start opposite Kampman, provided Kampman can even stay healthy. If not, they have Jeremy Mincey waiting in the wings. Mincey led the team with 5 sacks last year despite barely playing until Kampman went down.

2^nd and 4^th respectively on their team in sacks last season were Terrance Knighton and Tyson Alualu (Kampman was 3^rd, by the way). Those two will start at defensive tackle. Alualu is a nice pass rusher, but he’s undersized and struggles against the run, a big part of the reason why the Jaguars were 30^th against the run last year. He’s done better than most thought he would after the Jaguars surprisingly drafted him 10^th overall in 2010, but he’s still not a great player.

Knighton, meanwhile, is struggling with weight problems following the lockout. He has yet to even practice. If he’s not ready for the start of the season, the Jaguars don’t have another proven defensive tackle on their roster. D’Anthony Smith was their 3^rd round pick in 2010. He missed his whole rookie season with an Achilles tear, but he still has some upside.

At linebacker, next to Posluszky and Session, the Jaguars will start Daryl Smith. Smith is an above average strong side linebacker. However, I don’t know that Posluszky and Session are necessarily even that much of an upgrade over Justin Durant and Kirk Morrison, their starters at linebacker next to Daryl Smith last season.

Overall, this is going to be one of the worst teams in the league this year. They may have won 8 games last year, but I don’t think they deserved to. One was on a Hail Mary, another on a 59 yard field goal. They had a minus 66 differential, which means they won a lot of close games and lost a lot of games by a big margin. There was a lot of luck involved there. They probably won’t be as lucky this season.

On top of that, they have a starting quarterback who has lost his coach’s and front office’s confidence and a backup quarterback who isn’t ready. Their top offensive player isn’t 100%, their receiving corps go 1 deep and that’s it, their tight end might not give 100% after getting a ton of money, and their offensive line isn’t too good either.

On defense, they still will struggle to defend the pass, a very bad thing in this pass heavy league. They also struggled to stop the run last year and their best run stuffer is out of shape. They allowed the 6^th most points and the 5^th most yards last year and only won games on a combination of their luck and decent offensive play. I don’t think they’ll have either of those things this season. On top of this, they have a lame duck head coach in Jack Del Rio.

Quarterbacks: D

Running backs: B+

Receiving corps: D

Offensive line: C

Run defense: C-

Pass rush: D

Pass coverage: F

Coaching: D

Projection: 2-14 4th in AFC South

Wide Receiver

Blaine Gabbert is pretty bad, but he probably has the least amount of receiving talent to work with of any quarterback in the NFL. Mike Thomas is a #2 receiver at best. Jason Hill was a career journeyman who saw a good amount of starts for this team. Jarett Dillard isn’t great either. Meanwhile, guys like Chastin West, Mike Sims Walker, and Taylor Price were signed off waivers and immediately got playing time even though they were completely unwanted the week before. Cecil Shorts III was their 4^th rounder in 2011. He supposedly has good upside, but it’s pretty bad that he couldn’t even see the field ahead of that bunch of crap receivers. They could reach for a receiver like Kendall Wright with their 7^th overall pick.

Defensive End

The Jaguars perennially rank among the worst in the league in sacks and this year was no exception as they managed just 31. Luckily for them, Jeremy Mincey broke out in a big way this year, with 8 sacks, 38 quarterback pressures, all while playing well against the run. However, opposite him, Matt Roth didn’t offer much of a pass rush at all, though he was solid against the run. He’s a free agent anyway. Meanwhile, Aaron Kampman suffered a season ending injury for the third straight year. He could retire or be an offseason cap casualty. Even if he isn’t, he’s no sure thing going into the future. Defensive ends like Quinton Coples, Whitney Mercilus, Courtney Upshaw, and Melvin Ingram are all players the Jaguars will at least consider with their 7^th overall pick.

Offensive Tackle

If they don’t take a defensive end or a wide receiver at 7, I expect that pick to be Riley Reiff or Jonathan Martin as a right tackle. Guy Whimper was awful last year, allowing 14 sacks at right tackle, despite missing a game and a half with injury. He can’t be allowed to start again. Internal options include Eben Britton (though before his season ending injury, the plan seemed to be to keep him at left guard) and Cameron Bradfield, an undrafted free agent who made one solid late start in Whimper’s absence. If they don’t go with an internal option, they could draft one fairly early.

Cornerback

Derek Cox finally broke out as a very good #1 cornerback this season, allowing just 9 completions to 28 times thrown against. However, he hurt his knee played just 6 games before going on IR. Rashean Mathis also went on IR with a knee injury after tearing his ACL. He’s also a free agent this offseason. Even if he’s resigned, he’ll be a 32 year old declining player coming off a major injury by the start of next season. Likewise, William Middleton is also a free agent. He played well in Cox’s and Mathis’ absence and will need to be resigned. However, even if he is, they still need at least depth at the position.

Quarterback

Blaine Gabbert was absolutely awful last season. However, they have a 1^st and a 2^nd round pick invested him (what it took to trade up for him) so they have to give him another shot. They need a better backup option however.  They hired Greg Olson from Tampa Bay to be their quarterbacks coach so he could bring Josh Johnson with him to backup Gabbert.

Guard

Obviously this becomes a bigger need if they move Eben Britton back from left guard to right tackle. However, rookie 3^rd round pick Will Rackley was awful at right guard last season. They have other needs and he was just a rookie so I think he gets another shot, but they at least need a veteran backup behind him. Rackley could also move to center long term, which would increase their need for a guard.

Safety

They fixed one hole at safety last offseason by signing Dawan Landry, but they still have some questions at free safety. Courtney Greene was awful in 2010 and barely played this season with injuries. In his absence, converted cornerback Dwight Lowery was decent, but he’s a free agent. They have other needs so resigning him is probably their best option. If he signs elsewhere, they probably need one more player either in free agency or in the draft to compete with 2011 4^th round rookie Chris Prosinski and perhaps Greene, who is also a free agent this offseason.

Center

Brad Meester turns 35 before the 2012 NFL Draft. Will Rackley could be the long term solution there. If he isn’t, they may want to look at long term solutions through the draft.

Free Agency Priorities

Cornerback

They ranked 32nd against the pass in terms of YPA last year, but they still refuse to spend premium picks on cornerbacks. Hopefully they can find a starting cornerback in free agency. 

Defensive End

It’s tough to blame their pass defense problems all on the secondary. They managed just 26 sacks last year. They spent big money on Aaron Kampman last year, but they can’t count on him to stay healthy anymore. They should try to sign another end through free agency. 

Safety

Can’t just blame the cornerbacks in the secondary, they need two new starters at safety and I don’t think Chris Prosinski is anything other than a special teamer and a depth safety. 

Outside Linebacker

Justin Durant is injury prone and a free agent. They may resign him or they may look to sign a different veteran at the position. 

Middle Linebacker

They could resign Kirk Morrison who has expressed interest in returning, but if they don’t, they’ll have to find a different middle linebacker through free agency. 

Wide Receiver 

Is Cecil Shorts going to start opposite Mike Thomas? That just doesn’t sound like a good idea. They won’t resign Mike Sims Walker, but maybe they can find a different wide receiver in free agency. They at least need depth.

Draft Needs 

Cornerback

This team ranked dead last in the league against the pass in terms of YPA. In 2009, they ranked 27^th. they’ve held three quarterbacks under 50% completion since late 2007, JaMarcus Russell, Kerry Collins, and Rex Grossman. Derek Cox needs to move to nickel corner and Rashean Mathis will be a free agent after next season.

Drafted Rod Isaac (#147) 

Safety

You can’t just blame the corners when you’re that bad against the pass. The Jaguars need one, if not two upgrades at safety.

Drafted Chris Prosinski (#121) 

Defensive End

Sticking with the pass defense, the Jaguars only managed 26 sacks this season after only managing 14 sacks in 2009. That’s a big reason why they can’t stop the pass. They can’t create pressure. Aaron Kampman was brought in to be their #1 end, but suffered a season ending injury for the second straight year, another ACL tear. He can’t be counted on in the future.

Outside Linebacker

Justin Durant is inconsistent and a free agent. They might look at a replacement for him in the draft or through free agency.

Wide Receiver

Mike Sims Walker is inconsistent and a free agent. Even if he’s brought back, their depth is fairly lacking.

Drafted Cecil Shorts (#114) 

Offensive Tackle

The tackle combination of Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton has led to the Jaguars allowing 82 sacks in the last two years, despite being a run first team. They’re still young so they have time, but if one busts, they should have someone wanting in the wings. Their depth is abysmal.

Guard

Interior line depth is needed.

Drafted Will Rackley (#76) 

Center

A better backup for the oft injured soon to be 34 year old Brad Meester is needed.

() FA Rank 

QB Luke McCown- resigned 1 year

QB Todd Bouman

QB Trent Edwards

WR Mike Sims Walker

WR Jason Hill- resigned 2 years

TE Marcedes Lewis (#50)- franchised

The former 1^st round pick finally broke out in 2010, with 57 passes for 700 yards and 10 touchdowns. He’s a mauling run blocker and a big target, but has a history of complacency and might have just played well this season because he smelled the money. 

TE Zach Potter

OT Jordan Black

DT Leger Douzable

OLB Justin Durant

OLB Bryan Smith

MLB Kirk Morrison

CB William Middleton (exclusive rights)

CB David Jones- resigned

S Courtney Greene (exclusive rights)

S Sean Considine

S Tyron Brackenridge- resigned

P Adam Podlesh

Offseason moves:

Resigned Jason Hill

Resigned David Jones

Resigned Tyron Brackenridge

Resigned Luke McCown

Franchised Marcedes Lewis

Cut Jordan Black

Draft 

DT Michael Brockers (LSU)

DT Ronnie Cameron (Old Dominion)

WR Toney Clemons (Colorado)

DE Tyrone Crawford (Boise State)

OLB Ryan Davis (Bethune-Cookman)

S Chad Faulcon (Montclair State)

G Gino Gradkowski (Delaware)

CB Chris Greenwood (Albion)

WR TY Hilton (Florida International)

CB Jayron Hosley (Virginia Tech)

DE Chandler Jones (Syracuse)

CB Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama)

G Ronald Leary (Memphis)

DE Nick Perry (USC)

TE Adrien Robinson (Cincinnati)

CB Keith Tandy (West Virginia)

TE Matt Veldman (North Dakota State)

OLB Tahir Whitehead (Temple)

10. QB Blaine Gabbert C

David Garrard turned 33 this offseason and he’s always just been a marginal player so there is a need for a franchise quarterback in town. I just don’t think, in this weak quarterback class, this was the year to do it. They would have been much better off not trading up, taking Kerrigan at 16 to fix their pass rush, keeping their 2^nd round pick, and trying to get a successor for Garrard next year. Gabbert had a 2^nd round grade in my book so this is a reach. However, I do like that Gabbert has a chance to sit behind Garrard, which will help his development long term, but at the same time, this is a veteran team that needs to be building for now and this is just giving mixed signals. I have mixed feelings on this one.

76. G Will Rackley C-

I never bought into the Rackley hype, so while some will see this as a steal in the 3^rd, I see it as a reach and Rackley doesn’t fill a major need either.

114. WR Cecil Shorts B-

Shorts fills a need at wide receiver as they have nothing behind Mike Thomas, but I think Shorts was a minor reach in the 4^th as I had a 5^th or 6^th round grade on him.

121. S Chris Prosinski C

I understand why they drafted Prosinski. Gene Smith likes strong motor, small school kids and he does fill a need giving them safety depth and special teams play, but they really needed to get a starter at safety through the draft and there were much better safeties available.

147. CB Rod Isaac D

Who? I was familiar with about 450 draft prospects to build my top 300, but I’ve never heard of this guy. He may turn out to be good and make me look stupid, but that’s a risk I’m willing to take. The only reason this doesn’t get an F is because it fills their biggest need, cornerback.

Overall:

The Jaguars main need coming into the draft should have been to fix their pass defense. They ranked 32^nd against the pass last year. They needed defensive end help, cornerback help, and safety help. They didn’t draft a single defensive end and in the secondary, they waited until late to reach for players to fill needs there. They also only had 5 picks because they traded up to get Blaine Gabbert. Quarterback wasn’t a huge need for them and this is a terrible quarterback class so it would have been best for them to wait until next year to get their guy. The only reason this isn’t a D or an F is because I could see Gabbert becoming a franchise guy 2 years down the road after sitting and maturing behind Garrard.

Grade: C-

2010 Record: 8-8

Draft Position: 16

2010 Season Recap: Click Here

Offseason Needs: Click Here

Free Agents/Team Transactions: Click Here

Draft Grades: Click Here

Key Offseason Moves: None

Running Back

Oregon State

5-7 193

40 time (projected): 4.35

Draft board overall prospect rank: #85

Draft board running back rank: #6

Overall rating: 71 (Mid 3rd)

7/20/10: Jacquizz Rodgers is a smaller running back, at 193 pounds, and because of the lack of elite running backs in the NFL that weigh less than 200 pounds, that may look like cause for concern for some people. I don’t really see it that way. Rodgers is also 5-7 so 193 is actually fairly bulky and as we’ve seen with running backs like Ray Rice, Danny Woodhead, and Maurice Jones Drew, lack of height doesn’t really hurt you as a running back in the NFL.

In fact, in the case of Rodgers, Woodhead, Rice, and MJD, their short stocky stature helps them both be elusive and break tackles. Ray Rice measured in at 5-8 199 at his combine, Woodhead is listed at 5-8 193, and Maurice Jones Drew at 5-7 208 so I’m not too concerned with Rodgers’ size.

He is a good in between the tackles runner, with his elusiveness and his decent bulk, in addition to an explosive outside the tackles runner. He has legitimate 4.3 speed and can break a big gain at any time. Take a look at his numbers for yourself and you’ll see that this is someone who can get the job done, at least at the college level.

As a sophomore 2 years ago, he actually probably should have been a Heisman candidate. With 1440 yards rushing, 21 rushing touchdowns, along with 522 yards receiving and a receiving touchdowns, this guy was simply an explosive playmaker. As a freshman he had 1500 total yards and 12 total touchdowns. He has the potential to be this type of explosive playmaker once he’s in the NFL as well.

His numbers took a hit junior year and he fell into the pack of 3rd round backs in this class, with 1471 total yards and 17 total touchdowns. However, I still have him as a 3rd round prospect. He’s a great pass catcher and as I’ve said before, any time you put the ball in his hands, something amazing could happen. 

NFL Comparison: Danny Woodhead