By Ryan Glab
A look at four keys for the Bears to beat this week’s opponent.
1. Contain the combination of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams
The Bears have had struggles defending both of the Dolphins’ running backs, Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, in years past. In 2006, Brown rushed for 157 yards on 29 carries for a 5.4 average as the Dolphins thrashed the Bears, 31-13, handing them their first loss of the season. Four years prior to that, Williams rushed for 216 yards and two touchdowns on 31 carries, an average of 6.9 yards per carry. The Bears have a noticeably better run defense than they have had in recent memory and should put up a much more respectable effort than in either of those two games. With Tyler Thigpen, the Dolphins’ third-string quarterback, likely to get the start due to injuries to Chad Pennington and Chad Henne, the Dolphins may be forced to run the ball more and even may include the Wildcat into their repertoire.
2. Max protect Jay Cutler
Dolphins linebacker Cameron Wake, who is battling a hip injury, is expected to play Thursday against the Bears and he leads the team with 8.5 sacks, ranking him third in the league. As a side note, the Bears have already faced the two players ahead of him, Green Bay’s Clay Matthews and the Giants’ Osi Umenyiora. Matthews was held without a sack but Umenyiora had three. The Dolphins’ defense ranks 11th in the league with 23 sacks and has forced seven fumbles while recovering five of them. Even though the Bears’ offensive line has protected Cutler better since the bye week, the Dolphins will know what they’re up against and will send the pressure. Keeping Cutler healthy and providing him with enough time to make plays will be a necessity.
3. Continue to run a balanced offense
Since the bye week, Matt Forte has rushed 35 times for 118 yards and Chester Taylor has carried the ball 21 times for 46 yards. Neither player has run the ball particularly well, but it was the commitment to the run game that helped pave the way for success in their victories over Buffalo and Minnesota. I’m guessing that Lovie Smith got into the head of Mike Martz during the bye week and explained the need for Martz to call a more balanced game, and unless the Bears struggle mightily at running the football against Miami, I wouldn’t expect him to deviate from the game plan that has cut down on the amount of times Cutler has gotten hit and has helped lead to wins.
4. Replicate last week’s special teams effort
The Bears made a surprise move last week when they elected to put Devin Hester back to return kickoffs for the first time in a long time. The move paid off as Hester had returns of 32 and 68 yards. Hester also had a 42-yard punt return that set the Bears up with great field position. Even when Hester wasn’t returning the ball, his presence alone affected field position, as Vikings kicker Ryan Longwell kicked short and Rashied Davis fielded it and took it back to midfield. The Bears’ kick coverage did a good job of containing the Vikings’ dynamic Percy Harvin. Brad Maynard pinned the Vikings at their one-yard line late in the game. Robbie Gould missed his third field goal in a row, but he also converted on a pair of attempts. Special teams, probably even more so on the road, will be a major factor in the outcome of this game.
Go back to Bears Fan Spot
Flozell Adams Steelers
Adams was horrible at left tackle for the Cowboys last year and horribly overpaid. In the middle of a 6 year 43 million dollar contract, Adams was unable to keep opposing right ends and right rush linebackers out of the backfield and off the quarterback, allowing 8 sacks, tied for 7th most in the league, 7 quarterback hits, tied for 25th most in the league, and 34 quarterback pressures, tied for 6th most in the league. His 12 penalties were also good for 6th most in the league. He was cut about 4 months because he wasn’t worth anywhere near what they were paying him, especially at age 35. However, for what the Steelers need him for, he’s perfect. The Steelers lost Willie Colon to a season ending injury last month. Colon was their right tackle and best run blocker and Adams was, by far, the best run blocker available. He may stink in pass protection, but at right tackle, he’s not going to face the opponent’s best pass rusher and he can focus on being a massive run blocker at 340 pounds. At a reduced rate, he’s absolutely worth it as a stopgap right tackle until Colon can play again, likely next season. He’s better at what they need him to do than anyone else on the roster right now. The terms of this deal have not come out yet, except that’s it’s a two year deal, but considering Adams was looking for a contract in the range of 3-4 million dollars per year a few weeks ago, I think they got a good deal. I’m guessing this contract was somewhere around 2 years 5-6 million.
Grade: A
Florida/Vanderbilt
Spotlight #1: Vanderbilt MLB Chris Marve
Spotlight #2: Vanderbilt TE Brandon Barden
1st quarter
13:34: Marve gets off a block in the middle, good speed to get a tackle on the sideline after a sizeable gain.
12:50: Marve in on a tackle after the outside linebacker blows his gap.
12:12: Marve doesn’t change directions quickly.
11:11: Marve bites on a play fake.
0:11: Barden with a nice pass block.
0:01: Barden with a nice run block.
2nd quarter
14:39: Marve gives up a completion for a first down. Barely gets the tackle.
14:00: Marve gives up another completion for a first, tackle after the catch.
6:01: Marve blocked off the ball on a good run.
3:41: Barden misses a downfield block.
2:44: Barden catches a 9 yard pass underneath.
0:26: Sean Richardson, Vanderbilt’s strong safety, with already his 9th tackle of the night. He also has a sack.
3rd quarter
13:55: Jaye Howard with a sack. The 6-3 310 pound defensive tackle has disappointed thus far this season at nose tackle in Florida’s 3-4 defense. He has really struggled at the point of attack, but he was better as a 4-3 nose last year. In 2010, he had 2.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss. He looks like a late rounder.
11:56: Marve bites on play fake, allows a big gain of 20 yards near the zone he was supposed to be in.
8:57: Barden catches one in stride, good speed after for 16 yards.
6:44: Barden starts off as a blocker, disengages, gets open short and catches one nicely with a solid run after. He’s got good hands. I don’t know why he doesn’t have more catches on the season.
3:52: Marve has trouble getting off a downfield block.
4th quarter
14:55: Barden with his 4th catch of the game, open over the middle for 14 yards.
10:45: Barden with a good block to seal a hole on a touchdown run by the quarterback.
10:25: Marve whiffs on a tackle.
9:41: Marve almost allows another completion, but Jordan Reed, the Florida tight end who Marve has struggled with all game, drops the ball.
7:31: Barden with another fantastic block, this time on a pass block.
6:08: Nothing to do with anything, but the refs miss an obvious PI here. The Vanderbilt receiver was blatantly shoved from behind by the defender on a catchable ball, but no call.
5:05: Marve in on a tackle for no gain.
4:34: Marve with a nice stuff for a little gain, 3rd down stop.
3:55: Marve with a nice spin to shed a block.
3:01: Marve in on a short tackle.
2:13: Jeff Demps hasn’t had a big run yet to this point in this game, but still has 100 yards on 21 carries. Here he gets his big one, 57 yards, touchdown.
0:00: Marve had a very good game against Alabama, leading the charge as a 6-0 240 pound middle linebacker as Vanderbilt held Trent Richardson to one of his worst games of the season, 107 yards on 19 carrries (3rd lowest rushing total of the year). Vanderbilt has one of the best and most underrated defenses in the country and Marve is a big part of the reason why. However, Marve was not nearly as good in this one. He had just 4 tackles and several poor plays against the run as Vanderbilt allowed 197 yards rushing.
Marve also struggled in coverage. He let Florida receiver Jordan Reed catch 3 passes for 29 yards and allowed another big gain when he vacated his zone on a play action fake. On the season, Marve has 65 tackles, 6 for loss, 1 sack, 1 pick, and 2 pass deflections. He looks like an early day 3 prospect in the 4th round range unless he can bounce back with a strong finish to his senior season.
Speaking of Florida having a huge game on the ground, Jeff Demps led the way with Chris Rainey out with injury. Demps rushed for 158 yards and 2 scores on 23 carries, including a 57 yard touchdown run late. Demps is small at 5-7 191, but he’s one of the fastest people in the world. A former track star, Demps runs a 10.1 100 meter and can reportedly run a 40 as fast as 4.18.
He’s a bit undersized at 5-7 191, but he did a much better job of running in between the tackles and getting short chunks of yardage in this one. That 57 yarder was his only big gain and take that away, he still had 22 carries for 101 yards and a score against a good Vanderbilt defense. He’s short and tough to find behind the line, but he needs to run with better pad level. He’s not skinny and 191 pounds at 5-7 allows him to be like a Darren Sproles type, short, but stocky and powerful. However, he’s been too boom or bust this season. He wasn’t in this one, but 2 for 10, 3 for 4, 2 for 0, and 8 for 12 yard performances are going to limit this speedster to the late rounds.
Marve isn’t the only draftable prospect on Vanderbilt’s defense. Defensive end Tim Fugger, safety Sean Richardson, and cornerback Casey Hayward are all likely to get drafted at different points in the 2012 NFL Draft. Hayward is the highest rated and could go in the first round. A complete player, Hayward has 36 tackles, 6.5 for loss, 5 interceptions, and 9 pass breakups. Hayward was matched up with Florida’s Andre DuBose at several points in this one. DuBose has beat higher rated cornerbacks like Dre Kirkpatrick and Morris Claiborne for long touchdowns this year, but Hayward didn’t have much trouble with the speedy DuBose. DuBose caught 2 passes for 29 yards and didn’t score. Hayward also had 3 tackles for loss in this one. He’s a first rounder in my book.
The defensive end Tim Fugger is filling up the stat sheet as well, but he’s not the best athlete or the biggest player so he looks like a late rounder. Fugger has 5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss on the season, as well as 3 pass breakups. He got consistent pressure tonight against Florida’s Xavier Nixon, a talented player. He also got a pass deflection. The 6-4 250 pounder looks to be moving up boards and could go in the middle of day 3 as a 3-4 outside linebacker.
Sean Richardson is the final of the 4 good defensive players on Vanderbilt’s underrated squad. The big 6-2 220 pound safety had 10 tackles, 9 in the first half. He has 44 tackles, 5.5 for loss, 2 sacks, and a pass breakup on the season. He’s not great in coverage, but he’s a good run stopper and looks like a mid to late rounder as a strong safety.
On to the offensive side of the ball, I was very impressed by Brandon Barden. Barden had just 6 catches on the season coming into this game, but it’s tough to tell why from this tape. In this one, he had 4 catches for 51 yards. He showed everything you like out of a tight end. He showed smooth hands, good speed, good route running ability and instincts, and the ability to catch the ball in stride and make use of space after the catch. He also is a very good run and pass blocker, even at 6-5 245. He looked like the real deal in this one, lining up at both tight end and fullback.
Barden did have 34 catches for 425 yards and 3 touchdowns last season and he has been dealing with a few injuries, as well as inconsistencies at the quarterback position, so those could be to blame for his low catch total. However, he has everything the scouts like out of a tight end and with some track record of success, he could see his stock go up significantly once teams get him in individual drills as we get closer to draft day. The 6-5 245 pound tight end looks like a mid rounder in my book, probably around round 4, maybe 5.
Florida State/Clemson
Spotlight #1: Florida State OT Andrew Datko
Spotlight #2: Florida State DE Brandon Jenkins
1st quarter
13:50: Datko out of a 2 point stance, good burst off the ball on a 2nd level block.
11:07: Datko misses a 2nd level block, tackle for a loss.
10:28: Datko blown past with quick interior penetration to Datko’s right.
9:16: Jenkins frozen on a double team. Also on the play, talented Florida State redshirt sophomore cornerback Xavier Rhodes with a PI on a deep pass.
8:15: Jenkins getting dominated in his matchup early.
6:55: Datko stays with Andre Branch’s spin move well.
4:16: Jenkins not getting any pressure tonight. Clemson senior first year starting left tackle Phillip Price is dominating this matchup tonight.
0:58: Datko clears a huge hole on an 8 yard run for a first down.
2nd quarter
12:56: Jenkins taken down on a cut block.
12:32: Lazy effort by Jenkins. Looked like he gave up on this play.
11:31: Jenkins able to get into the backfield, but a roll out away from him.
10:55: Jenkins beats his man to the inside with a swim move, gets pressure and a hit.
10:16: Jenkins’ spin move goes nowhere and then he’s knocked down. I’ve been impressed with Phillip Price, the 1st year senior starter at left tackle for Clemson.
2:15: Datko misses a block on a failed 3rd and short conversion.
1:32: Jenkins able to draw a hold on Phillip Price.
1:13: Jenkins run at and he gets a tackle for no gain on a quarterback draw.
0:53: Brandon Jenkins with a sack. 3 great plays in a row by him to finish off a disappointing first half.
3rd quarter
14:15: Jenkins gets into the backfield, but misses a tackle for a loss.
13:36: Jenkins can’t change directions quickly on a potential tackle for loss.
13:08: Jenkins able to get a little pressure. This was a coverage pressure, great coverage by Florida State’s secondary.
11:07: Jenkins is able to get more pressure.
10:34: Just a note, Jenkins has had several plays where he lines up as a linebacker.
7:06: Jenkins is among others getting pressure, but then he gets knocked down.
6:06: Jenkins beats his man, but the back does a nice job of blocking him to prevent a sack or a pressure.
1:09: Datko whiffs on a cut block, allows pressure on a screen.
4th quarter
14:45: Jenkins blocked by Clemson tight end Dwayne Allen. Blocking is a popular knock on him.
12:27: Datko with a nice cut block.
3:39: Jenkins gets pressure, flushes the quarterback from the pocket.
2:46: Datko stays with Andre Branch’s spin move.
1:59: Datko allows a quarterback hit by Andre Branch, forces an errant throw and almost a pick.
1:37: Datko pancakes Branch.
0:00: Jenkins showed flashes of brilliance in this game, but was overall inconsistent and struggled with a left tackle in Phillip Price who is hardly an elite prospect. Through 7 games, Jenkins has just 26 tackles, 6.5 for loss, and 3.5 sacks, good, but hardly the 63 tackles, 21.5 for loss, and 13.5 sacks he had in 14 games last season. He’s really losing momentum as a first round prospect and could end up outside of the first round if he keeps this up.
As for Phillip Price, I was very impressed with him. He doesn’t get a lot of attention and he doesn’t have a lot of starting experience, but the 6-5 315 pound left tackle looked very good in his matchup with Jenkins, a talented pass rusher and a sure fire top two rounds pick. He’s worth a 2nd look in my opinion.
As for Andrew Datko, he didn’t have the best night, but he was matched up with a potential first round pick in Andre Branch and he held his own. He kept the athletic Branch, who now has 47 tackles, 11.5 for loss, and 7 sacks in 8 games, in check and proved himself to be a worth tackle at either left tackle or right tackle at the next tackle. He would be a fringe first round pick if he wasn’t missing the rest of the season with shoulder surgery. He’ll have to prove his health before the draft, otherwise, he could really slip. For now, I’d say the first round looks unlikely for him.
Fletcher Cox Scout
Defensive Tackle/3-4 Defensive End
Mississippi State
6-4 298
Draft board overall prospect rank: #13
Draft board defensive tackle rank: #1
Overall rating: 88 (Solid 1st round pick)
40 time: 4.79
Games watched: LSU/Mississippi State, Mississippi State/Wake Forest
Positives
· Great athlete
· Mature pass rusher
· Good size (6-4 298)
· Excellent 40 time (4.79, 1.64 10 yard split)
· Agile and quick
· Good change of direction
· Did very well in The Combine’s agility drills
· Can line up inside and outside
· Would be a natural fit as a 5-technique in a 3-4
· Long arms (34 ½ inches)
· Good hand use
· Deep repertoire of pass rushing moves
· Stout at the point of attack
· Good strength (30 reps of 225)
· Powerful
· Holds up against the run
· Could probably add 15 pounds comfortably
· Explosive
· Great motor
· Great in space
· Good technique
· Good chase and pursuit
· Versatile
· Moves like a linebacker (almost run back a fumble for a touchdown this season)
· Productive 2011 season (56 tackles, 14.5 for loss, 5 sacks)
· Played elite competition in SEC
· Makes impact plays
· Impossible to ignore on tape
· Special teams ability (4 blocked kicks)
Negatives
· Only one year of strong production
· No years of elite production (Marcell Dareus, Nick Fairley, Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy all had more productive seasons than him)
· Only average against the run
· Can get overpowered by bigger interior linemen
· Doesn’t take on a lot of double teams
· Only 2 career forced fumbles
· Still a bit raw
· Suspended for Memphis game for violation of team rules
NFL Comparison: Darnell Dockett
After Dontari Poe’s amazing Combine, a lot of people called him the best defensive tackle in this draft class and mocked him 9th to Carolina, who really needs a defensive tackle. I didn’t mock him to Carolina, instead putting Fletcher Cox there after his underrated Combine. The 6-4 300 pound Cox ran in the high 4.7s and had a better 10 yard split than Poe and was much better in the agility and change of direction drills than Poe. Cox was the more productive player in a much tougher conference and he had much better change of direction and quickness, whereas Poe is more straight line fast.
The consensus has caught up to this. Cox is now seen as the top defensive tackle in this draft class and 9 to Carolina is now his floor. Tampa Bay at 5 and St. Louis at 6 could be interested and if he slips past them, Philadelphia will be working the phones to move up to 7 to grab him ahead of Carolina. He’s not quite on the level of guys like Marcell Dareus, Nick Fairley, Ndamukong Suh, and Gerald McCoy, but he’s a good 2nd tier tackle who would be a good value from 9-15.
The first time I saw Fletcher Cox, I didn’t know a whole lot about him, but I couldn’t help but notice him on tape and he looked like a potential first round pick. I didn’t think he’d declare early, but when he did, I did some more work on him and gave him a top 20 grade, moving him up to now 13th on my board after a strong Combine. He’s still a bit raw and he only has 1 year of good production, but he’s got all the tools, a great motor, and he’s already a very mature pass rusher with a good combination of speed and power moves, as well as good technique.
I compare him to Arizona’s Darnell Dockett. Dockett went in the 3rd round in 2004 and, while Cox will definitely go much higher Dockett has well exceeded his draft range as he’s become one of the better 5-techniques in the NFL. He also has experience in a 4-3 as a defensive tackle. The 3 time Pro Bowler has 34.5 sacks in 8 seasons (9 in 2007) despite being a bit undersized (6-4 290). Cox can play either of these positions and should be an above average starter like Dockett. I expect him to have an immediate impact as a rookie.
Five Things
By Cormac Eklof
The Detroit Lions are going to win a few games in 2011.
The Lions have been breaking their fans hearts for a good stretch now. They have suffered through some long, painful streaks of failure. However, hope is on the horizon. How does a 1-5 record thus far this season offer hope? Last night’s 20-28 loss to the Giants should tell you everything you need to know about this young, fresh and talented Lions squads’ moxy. With Mathew Stafford out and Shaun Hill sadly breaking his arm, the Lions were reduced to their third string quarterback (Drew Stanton). On the road. Against the Giants fearsome pass rush. Did they crawl into the fetal position and fold? No, they outscored the Giants 10-7 in the fourth and were a few plays away from causing one of the shocks of the season. Detroit has now kept it close against the Packers, the Eagles and the Giants, and has absolutely annihilated a St Louis team that then went out and beat San Diego . Watch for the Lions to play spoiler against teams in the second half of the season, and watch next year as Stafford/Johnson/Best and Suh form the nucleus of a team that can legitimately challenge for postseason play from next season on. No, seriously!
Suh had 1.5 sacks and hit Manning 3 other times last night
Aint nothin’ wrong with CJ
The last couple of weeks the questions started, asking basically, ‘What is wrong with Chris Johnson?’ – a question generally posed by fantasy football players who were going on numbers, as opposed to the actual games. Johnson had barely broken the line of scrimmage all season long. You could see exactly why last night, Jacksonville basically stacked nine in ‘the box’ (up tight to the line) and dared the Titans and CJ to run. The latter took the challenge and hammered out a hard earned 100 plus yard day. There is nothing wrong with CJ, teams are just keying on to him, stuffing as many as nine guys in the box and challenging him. If anything, he might be actually running better than last season. Just bear in mind that 35 yard touchdown last night came against a team that was selling out to stop the run. One thing is clear, Fisher and the Titans are going to keep feeding him the rock. The Jaguars were simply daring the Titans to throw, yet they kept handing off to their stud running back. Watch as CJ builds on this confidence boosting showing and breaks off a few 100 yard games in a row.
The NFL front office needs to get its priorities straight
How can you expend so much energy penalising teams on touchdown celebrations, and so little on player safety? A feature of this weekend pasts games was penalties called for fancy dance routines, and for the Cowboys, leapfrogging after scoring. Meanwhile, all around the league, defensive players were dishing out career and indeed life threatening blows at head height. When is the NFL going to get serious and focus on serious issues, instead of fining players for, basically, being entertaining? Rugby has a simple rule, no tackling or contact above the shoulders. The NFL should immediately eject any player that hits another player at head height. This would show they were serious about protecting their most valuable asset, their players.
Might be a bit early to count the Superbowl champions out, just yet.
Sunday, on the road against a feisty Buccaneers team, the Saints (now 4-2) churned out a season-high 475 yards total offense and weren’t forced to punt until early in the fourth quarter. This was an impressive 60 minute showing, from a team that will soon get the explosive Reggie Bush back. They are also playing without Pierre Thomas. The Saints have struggled, no doubt, but they are still alive, and would you bet against them coming on strong in the second half of the season? I know I wouldn’t.
Tom Brady didn’t need Randy Moss as much as Randy Moss needed him
There were many, many football fans in the New England region, a place where second guessing a coach or a front office is almost a constitutional requirement, who thought the trade of Moss to the Vikings would mean Brady would never complete a pass in the NFL again, Well, those folk were pretty incorrect in their assessment. Brady to Branch had a nice old time ring to it, and was a crucial factor in the Patriots stunning come back win over the Ravens. Meanwhile Moss toiled the last couple of weeks with a fourty plus year old Quarterback with tendinits issues, who could go on the injured list at any moment. Think Moss will enjoy having Tavaris Jackson throwing to him? Imagine the chidlish hissy fits in that scenario! Still, at least Moss is getting paid, you know, since he must have been playing for free in New England, he was that ‘poorly’ treated.
http://irishbaseballseason.blogspot.com/
Fire John Bonamego
By Paul Smythe
Oh wait, things have already gotten out of hand.
I was originally planning on this post being an analysis of the game, but you know what? Screw that. This game does not need an in-depth analysis. The only two things that should result in this for the Miami Dolphins is +1 in the loss column and the firing of Special Teams Coordinator John Bonamego.
Last night was the most embarrassing performance I have ever watched by a special teams unit. It was also arguably the most embarrassing showing in the history of the NFL.
I don’t know if there has ever been a team that outgained their opponent by 135 yards and still lost by 27 points until now. You have to be pretty bad on special teams to do that, so I guess the Dolphins qualify
So, thank you John Bonamego.
Thank you for costing us a game that we could have very easily won and putting us in another early hole. We all thought we had avoided the early hole after our 2-0 start. Well, we were wrong. Here we are again with a bad record in the beginning of the season.
Now, instead of winning we end up looking like one of the worst teams in the NFL. Instead of pulling even with the Jets atop the division we are now what seems like an eternity behind both New York and New England.
It may only be a one game deficit in the win-loss column, but it is really so much more because of the two game deficit in the divisional win-loss column.
This game was an early must-win, and we definitely didn’t win. Instead we became the first team to allow a kickoff to be returned for a touchdown, a blocked field goal to be returned for a touchdown, and a interception returned for a touchdown all in the same game. And, it was pretty much all John Bonamego’s fault.
Admittedly, Bonamego was not out there on the field. He was not one of the tacklers that was beaten on the kickoff TD allowed. He was not one of the blockers who allowed the Patriots to block a punt or the field goal returned for a TD.
But, he sure as hell should not get off without blame for this one.
The Miami Dolphins special teams has been horrible since he has been here, and tonight’s performance just brings that fact out for everyone to see. Consider this:
Our special teams is the 25th worst in kick return yards with 21.6, and that was with Pro Bowl kick returner Clifton Smith returning the ball for the first two games. You can try and blame Smith all you want, but no kick returner has been successful in the Dolphins kick return system of late.
In just four games so far this season the Miami Dolphins special teams has allowed three blocked kicks, a kickoff returned for a touchdown, and more yards returned on a kickoff than any other team in the NFL.
But, here’s the kicker. They haven’t just allowed more yards per kickoff return by a couple tenths of a yard.
THEIR AVERAGE YARDS ALLOWED IS 5 YARDS MORE THAN ANY OTHER TEAM IN THE NFL
They have averaged 35.8 yards per kickoff return. In second place is the Tennessee Titans with 30.8 yards per return. That is the most sickening statistic I have seen in a very, very long while.
Pair all of those stats with the two kickoffs that went out of bounds, and you have one of the worst special teams in the history of the NFL.
Let me put it is perspective for you. I looked through the NFL record book to find the record for the highest average yards allowed in a season for one team.
“Why?” you ask.
Because I’m pissed off and I want to prove my point.
Anyways, would you like to know the record? Trust me you really don’t, but I will tell you anyways.
It is 29.5 kickoff yards allowed by the 1972 New York Jets.
The Miami Dolphins are averaging 6.3 more yards allowed per return than the worst average in NFL history.
Granted, the Jets average was after 14 games. But still, if the Dolphins keep John Bonamego then they may very well shatter that record.
So, please Miami Dolphins, put somebody else in there. You can pay them $50 million dollars a year for all I care as long as they don’t get in the rest of the team’s way.
Just give me an average special teams unit, and let the offense and defense take care of the rest.
Fantasy WRs 2011
1. Calvin Johnson (Detroit)
Discounting 2009 when he battled some injuries, Calvin Johnson has a combined 155 catches for 2451 yards and 24 touchdowns in 31 games from 2008-2010. In that span, his quarterbacks have been Dan Orlovsky, Daunte Culpepper, Jon Kitna, Shaun Hill, Drew Stanton, and a combined 3 games (1 complete game) of Matt Stafford.
Stafford has by far the best arm of the bunch and the best arm to utilize Calvin Johnson’s talents as a freakishly athletic deep threat. I mean if you’re creating a receiver on Madden and you max out his height and weight and set everything to 99, you’ve pretty much just created Calvin Johnson. If Stafford stays healthy, I think this is the year he takes his rightful place atop the fantasy wide receiver totem pole.
Projection: 88 catches, 1350 receiving yards, 14 touchdowns (219 pts, 307 PPR)
2. Andre Johnson (Houston)
If you take his stats from 13 games last year and stretch them across 16 games, you get 106 catches for 1497 yards and 10 touchdowns. Those stats are right in line with what he did in 2008 and 2009. In 2008, he had 115 catches for 1575 yards and 8 touchdowns and in 2009 he had 101 yards for 1569 yards and 9 touchdowns. He could see a slight dip in those numbers this year because the Texans actually have a defense and a running game so they don’t need to air it out as much. However, he’s still the clear #2 wide receiver this year and the top receiver in PPR.
Projection: 103 catches, 1470 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns (201 pts, 304 PPR)
3. Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh)
In 12 games with Ben Roethlisberger in 2010, he had 51 catches for 1046 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Across 16 games, that’s 68 catches for 1395 yards and 11 touchdowns. In his final 8 games, as Hines Ward started to decline, he had 38 catches for 750 yards and 5 touchdowns. Across 16 games, that’s 76 catches for 1500 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Of course, Ben Roethlisberger has only played 16 games once in his career, so I think it’ll be close to that first set of number than the 2nd, but a YPC of 20 is not unrealistic for someone with his type of speed. He’s also in his 3rd year, a big year for receivers.
Projection: 70 catches, 1400 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns (200 pts, 270 PPR)
4. Hakeem Nicks (NY Giants)
8/17/11: Steve Smith and Kevin Boss are gone. That means more targets will go to Manningham and Nicks.
In his 2nd season in the league, Nicks had 79 catches for 1052 yards and 11 touchdowns. He’s now going into his magical 3rd season, that 3rd season where young receivers always seem to break out. Steve Smith is hurt so Nicks will get more targets. He has a great rapport with Eli Manning, who never gets hurt. He’s a pretty safe WR1.
Projection: 88 catches, 1200 receiving yards, 13 touchdowns (198 pts, 286 PPR)
5. Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona)
In 3 years with Kurt Warner, Fitzgerald had 100, 96, and 97 catches. His total yards were a little lower in his final year with Warner, 2009, with 1092 yards, but he had 1409 yards in 2007 and 1431 yards in 2008. He also combined for 35 touchdowns in 3 years with Warner. Kevin Kolb is not Kurt Warner, but two things, Fitz has been working out with Kolb all offseason so they have good chemistry. Fitz also no longer has to contend with Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston for yards and receptions like he did when Warner was in town. Besides, Fitz somehow managed 90 catches for 1137 yards and 6 touchdowns last year with a pile of steaming crap at quarterback.
Projection: 94 catches, 1300 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns (196 pts, 290 PPR)
6. Greg Jennings (Green Bay)
Greg Jennings had 76 catches for 1265 yards and 12 touchdowns last year. That’s pretty aligned with what he had been doing in previous years. I see no reason why he can’t put up similar if not better stats this year. Aaron Rodgers is still throwing to him and Donald Driver is fading opposite him. Jennings was much better in the 2nd half last year than he was in the first.
Projection: 80 catches, 1300 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns (196 pts, 276 PPR)
7. Miles Austin (Dallas)
9/3/11: Austin has been dealing with a hamstring problem all preseason. These types of things tend to linger so I’d knocking his production down just a little, even though I don’t think he’ll miss any games.
In his last 17 games with Tony Romo, Austin has 109 catches for 1725 yards and 12 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 103 catches for 1624 yards and 11 touchdowns. Romo is back and should be able to play a full 16 game set this year. He’s always been healthy except that one freak hit last year.
Now, obviously, I’m not going to predict those stats for Austin for several reasons. One, it’s just unrealistic. No one does that. Two, in those 17 games, he either didn’t have Dez Bryant opposite him or the Dez Bryant he had opposite him was still learning the playbook. Three, Jason Garrett is now the head coach and he seems to like Dez Bryant a lot.
Still, I think there’s room for both Austin and Bryant to have great fantasy seasons, with Austin having the greater season. I loved him last year in fantasy leagues and he was having a great season (33 catches for 486 yards and 2 touchdowns in 5 games) until Romo got hurt. Now, I think he’s very undervalued.
Projection: 83 catches, 1330 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (181 pts, 264 PPR)
8. Brandon Lloyd (Denver)
Brandon Lloyd burst onto the scene with 77 catches for 1448 yards and 11 yards last year. A lot of people credit that to Josh McDaniels and think Lloyd will bust now that McDaniels is gone. However, in 4 games without McDaniels last year he had 17 catches for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns, good for 68 catches for 1180 yards and 8 touchdowns over 16 games. And that was with Tim Tebow throwing him the ball and he said it himself that prefers Kyle Orton throwing to him.
He’ll have Orton this year, at least to start. I know John Fox is a more conservative head coach than anyone they had last year, but Steve Smith never had a problem putting up big fantasy numbers (when healthy) with Fox in Carolina.
Projection: 70 catches, 1200 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns (180 pts, 250 PPR)
9. Roddy White (Atlanta)
Roddy White has been the picture of consistency for the past 4 seasons catching at least 80 passes for at least 1150 yards and at least 6 touchdowns, with double digit touchdowns in each of the past 2 seasons. Last year was his best year as he caught 115 passes for 1389 yards and 10 touchdowns. However, with the addition of Julio Jones this offseason, we should see that production drop, especially in terms of touchdowns, this season.
Projection: 105 catches, 1280 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (176 pts, 281 PPR)
10. Mario Manningham (NY Giants)
Mario Manningham had his best season of his career last year with 60 catches for 944 yards and 9 touchdowns (and what do you know, it was his 3rd season). I think that’s the floor for this year for him as Steve Smith will likely start the season on the bench with an injury, allowing Manningham to take Smith’s spot in the lineup. He should be able to surpass the 1000 yard mark alongside Hakeem Nicks, with the never injured Eli Manning throwing to them.
Projection: 72 catches, 1120 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns (172 pts, 244 PPR)
11. Steve Johnson (Buffalo)
In 13 games with Ryan “I’m 100 times better than Trent Edwards, but I’m still not very good” Fitzpatrick, Steve Johnson had 71 catches for 930 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 87 catches for 1140 yards and 12 touchdowns. Fitz really likes throwing to him and they didn’t add anyone else opposite him this offseason
I think he could reproduce or exceed those stats in 2011, especially given that the Bills are one of the few teams that return the same starting quarterback, head coach, and coordinators as 2010. That will be a big advantage, especially for a team that frequently has changes at all 4 of those positions. The only statistic that will be lower in 2011 will be his touchdowns. The Bills had a weird 24 passing touchdowns to 6 rushing touchdowns in 2010. That won’t be the case in 2011. Those numbers should look more normal this year.
Projection: 89 catches, 1170 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns (171 pts, 260 PPR)
12. Kenny Britt (Tennessee)
9/3/11: Like Austin, Britt is dealing with a bit of a hammy problem, something that cost him 4 games last season. I don’t think it’ll cost him any games this season, but it could hurt his production a little.
8/28/11: Kenny Britt will not be suspended, meaning, barring injury, he’ll play 16 games this season. He had 42 catches for 775 yards and 9 touchdowns last season in 12 games. Over 16 games, that’s 56 catches for 1033 yards and 12 touchdowns. That’s good for 175 fantasy points, which would have made him the 7th ranked fantasy receiver last season. Now keep in mind, he has a better quarterback situation this season with Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker rather than Kerry Collins and Vince Young and he’s in his 3rd season, a breakout year for young wide receivers. We have a legitimate top 10 wide receiver with Britt this season.
Britt had 42 catches for 775 yards and 9 touchdowns in 12 games last year, but before you extrapolate that over 16 games, realize he’ll probably only play 12 this year anyway as it’s widely assumed that some sort of suspension is coming for him after he got arrested seemingly weekly this offseason. That suspension could be as long as 4 games. He’s also got some hamstring problems still. He’s in his 3rd year and he’s got a better quarterback in Matt Hasselbeck now, but he’s definitely a risky WR2. I’d feel safer with him as a WR3 or a flex.
Projection: 56 catches, 1020 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns (168 pts, 224 PPR)
13. Vincent Jackson (San Diego)
2010 was basically a lost year for Vincent Jackson as a suspension, a holdout, injuries, and “injuries” limited his time on the field. After being franchised tagged this past offseason, Jackson now seems committed to reproving himself and getting a big deal in free agency this offseason. Look for him to find his 2009 form (68 catches for 1167 yards and 9 touchdowns) once more.
Projection: 62 catches, 1130 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (161 pts, 223 PPR)
14. Santonio Holmes (NY Jets)
In 11 games last season with Mark Sanchez, Holmes had 51 catches for 729 yards and 5 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 74 catches for 1060 yards and 7 touchdowns. Those numbers should only get higher this year with Braylon Edwards gone (replaced by the inferior Plaxico Burress) and in his 2nd season with a new team. Besides, there’s precedent for Holmes having a huge season before. In his last year in Pittsburgh, he caught 79 passes for 1248 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Projection: 78 catches, 1120 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (160 pts, 238 PPR)
15. Percy Harvin (Minnesota)
With Sidney Rice either out of the lineup or hampered by injury for most of the season, Percy Harvin had 71 catches for 868 yards and 5 touchdowns last year. Rice is in Seattle now and Michael Jenkins will lineup across from him instead. He’s hardly a threat. Harvin is the guy in Minnesota and he has an upgrade at quarterback with Donovan McNabb and/or Christian Ponder. He also is a relatively lock to give you another 100 yards and maybe even a score on the ground. On top of that, if you needed any more reason to love him as a WR2, he’s in his 3rd year in the league.
Projection: 76 catches, 980 receiving yards, 110 rushing yards, 8 total touchdowns (157 pts, 233 PPR)
16. Austin Collie (Indianapolis)
8/25/11: If Peyton Manning misses a game and struggles (by his standards) for 7 games, that’s obviously bad news for Austin Collie’s fantasy value.
8/20/11: Any stock down for Manning is a stock down for his receivers.
Austin Collie suffered several nasty concussions last year. I’m surprised his head is still attached. However, when he was in the lineup last year, he played very well and the concussions didn’t scare him away from playing 100%. He still caught 8 passes for 87 yards and 2 touchdowns against Jacksonville. In fact, in 8 full games last year, he had 57 catches for 650 yards and 8 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 114 catches for 1300 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns.
Obviously those numbers are a little bit crazy, but not too crazy. Peyton Manning is his quarterback and he always makes receivers look good. He posted the best catch rate in the league last year, catching 82.9% of his targets. Pierre Garcon was clearly a less targeted receiver when both Garcon and Collie were available and Wayne turns 33 this season and could be heading for a decline. That leaves Collie in perfect position to step up and break out (don’t forget he’s in his magical 3rd year as well).
Projection: 90 catches, 1000 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns (154 pts, 244 PPR)
17. Chad Ochocinco (New England)
9/3/11: Reports about Ochocinco haven’t sounded good. He hasn’t been there very long so it’s possible he’s just taking a while to pick up the offense. I like his fantasy value a lot more in the 2nd half of the season than the first because I feel he could struggle a little to start the season.
8/20/11: Brady targeted Ochocinco 5 times in 19 throws in his 2nd preseason game, his first start. Ochocinco only caught 2, though he did score. However, it’s very nice to see that the Patriots see Ochocinco as a big part of their offense. They could have the best offense in the league again which means a lot of yards and touchdowns for Ochocinco.
I honestly don’t know what to expect from Ochocinco in New England this year. He could go Randy Moss on us (single season record for touchdown). He could go Torry Holt on us (cut in training camp). My best guess is that he at least improves on the 67 catches for 831 yards and 4 touchdowns he had last year in Cincinnati with Carson Palmer. We’ll see how he’s used in the preseason.
Projection: 66 catches, 970 receiving yards, 9 touchdowns (151 pts, 217 PPR)
18. DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia)
8/26/11: The Eagles offense looks out of sync right now. I don’t know if it’s Maclin being out or defensive coordinators having a whole offseason to figure out how to stop Vick, but this is not good for Jackson’s fantasy value. Maclin should be back week 1, but he won’t be 100%.
8/17/11: Jackson also would benefit from Maclin being out of the lineup. He still wouldn’t be a goal line threat or anything, but Cooper opposite him is significantly inferior so Vick would be looking his way much more often.
I’m not too worried about his holdout. The new CBA has made holdouts completely impractical because they moved the date in which you no longer accrue a year towards free agency up a lot. However, I am worried about the fact that he only caught 47 balls last year. Jeremy Maclin is going to have a good year opposite him and I think it’s unreasonable to expect even him to average 22.5 yards per catch again so if he wants to get 1000+ yards again, he’ll need to catch 62 balls like he did in 2009.
With Maclin presumably improving even more in his 3rd year, that may be very tough for him. He’s also not a big touchdown guy. The extra 100 or so yards he adds on the ground is always a welcome addition, however.
Projection: 50 catches, 980 receiving yards, 100 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns (150 pts, 200 PPR)
19. Mike Williams (Tampa Bay)
Mike Williams burst onto the scene with 65 catches for 964 yards and 10 touchdowns last year. Many think he will take the next step forward in 2011. I am not one of those people. Tampa Bay’s schedule is much harder this year and receivers don’t traditionally take big leaps forward until their 3rd year (unless they had particularly bad rookie years). Statistically, I’m projecting a step back for Mike Tampa this year.
Projection: 61 catches, 890 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns (149 pts, 210 PPR)
20. Marques Colston (New Orleans)
8/17/11: Colston’s surgically repaired knee is not 100%. It’s still not a huge concern, but it’s a little bit more concerning that it was a couple weeks ago.
Colston has had 70 catches for 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns in every season in which he’s been healthy. I don’t see why anything should change, though he did have yet another knee procedure done this offseason. He hasn’t missed any major time since 2008 with injury, but there’s always a worry with him. However, if you draft smart, you should find a sleeper that becomes a WR2 to replace Colston in your lineup should anything happen to him so I’d still feel fine taking him in the 5th round. He’s a mid to low end WR2.
Projection: 70 catches, 1000 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (148 pts, 218 PPR)
21. Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis)
8/25/11: If Peyton Manning misses a game and struggles (by his standards) for 7 games, that’s obviously bad news for Reggie Wayne’s fantasy value.
8/20/11: Any stock down for Manning is a stock down for his receivers.
Wayne has been the picture of consistency for a long time, putting up 80+ catches in every year since 2005 and 1000+ yards in every year since 2004. However, he turns 33 this season so a decline could be coming. With Austin Collie looking set to breakout and Pierre Garcon still in the mix, I find it very hard to believe that Wayne matches last year’s stats (111 catches for 1355 yards and 6 touchdowns). He might match the touchdown total (remember he did have 10 in 2009) because Indy’s offense is so explosive and he’ll still be a great fantasy receiver, but it’s time to move him down from WR1 status.
Projection: 80 catches, 1000 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns (142 pts, 222 PPR)
22. Dez Bryant (Dallas)
9/3/11: Miles Austin’s loss is Dez Bryant’s gain. The 2nd year receiver has looked very good in the preseason without Miles Austin. He’s a low end WR2 or high end WR3 with upside.
In 5 games with Tony Romo last year, Bryant had just 18 catches for 211 yards and a touchdown, good for 58 catches for 675 yards and 3 touchdowns over a 16 game season. However, some things work in his favor. He’s in his 2nd year, definitely a plus, as rookie receivers tend to struggle. Also, head coach new Jason Garrett really seems to like him and Roy Williams is gone. I think he’s still the clear #2 in Dallas’ explosive offense, but he’s definitely a WR3 with major, major upside.
Projection: 75 catches, 930 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (141 pts, 216 PPR)
23. Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia)
8/17/11: Maclin should be getting back to practice soon and he’s not dying, which is obviously a good thing. However, he could still miss the first week of the season. He’s been really sick this offseason and predictably is not in great shape. It could take him a few weeks to be his old self.
Yes, Jeremy Maclin over DeSean Jackson. I like Maclin more because he catches more balls, which means he’s less reliant on big plays to put up fantasy points, which means he’s more consistent. He’s also a better scoring threat with 10 touchdowns to Jackson’s 6 in 2010. He’s also in his 3rd year and not a malcontent contract wise. Maclin has 70 catches for 962 yards and 10 touchdowns last year. Look for those to improve in 2011.
Projection: 64 catches, 890 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (137 pts, 201 PPR)
24. Mike Sims Walker (St. Louis)
Mike Sims Walker had 43 catches for 562 yards and 7 touchdowns last year, but 63 catches for 869 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2009. He moves from Jacksonville to St. Louis, a more pass heavy team with a better quarterback. We saw what Josh McDaniels did with Brandon Lloyd in Denver with an inferior quarterback in Kyle Orton. I’m not saying MSW quite has that upside, but he could certainly go over a thousand yards and I don’t think his downside is all that low. I mean if Josh McDaniels can get 65 catches for 875 yards out of Kyle Orton to Jabar Gaffney last year, unless MSW gets hurt, he still has fantasy value as the #2 receiver in St. Louis’ offense.
Projection: 65 catches, 920 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns (134 pts, 199 PPR)
25. Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City)
I’m going to be upfront with it. I hate Dwayne Bowe in fantasy this year. He’s got so much working against him. The Chiefs schedule is much harder. They played 4 games against teams with better than .500 records last year (including the playoffs). Bowe had 4 catches for 49 yards and no touchdowns in those 4 games. This year they play 8 such teams.
Bowe had 15 touchdowns last year. He had 16 in his first 3 years. Can you say outlier? Also, he now has to contend with Jonathan Baldwin and Steve Breaston for targets. Last year, Kansas City had no other wide receivers. At all. Chris Chambers was their 2nd best wideout and he’s terrible. I think this projection might even be a bit high for him.
Projection: 59 catches, 900 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns (132 pts, 191 PPR)
26. Santana Moss (Washington)
Poor Santana Moss. He’s literally had nothing but crap at quarterback in his career and now he has John Beck after a year of at least mediocre from Donovan McNabb. He caught 93 passes for 1115 yards and 6 touchdowns last year and even produced with Rex Grossman at quarterback with 22 catches for 231 yards and 2 touchdowns in two Grossman starts. His history with bad quarterbacks is bad news for him, but good news for fantasy football players. If he’s produced before with bad quarterbacks, he can presumably do it again, though his age, 32, is a bit of a red flag.
Prediction: 75 catches, 1000 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns (130 pts, 205 PPR)
27. Lance Moore (New Orleans)
8/17/11: All 3 of New Orleans’ top receivers have injury problems. Colston’s knee is still not 100%. Robert Meachem battled leg injuries all last season and recently hurt his back in a preseason game. Moore missed most of 2009 with injuries, but is as close to 100% as you can be right now. In 2008, when healthy, he caught 79 passes for 928 yards and 10 touchdowns. In 2010, when he also was healthy, he caught 66 passes for 763 yards and 8 touchdowns. Expect production similar to those numbers this year, especially with injury questions surrounding Colston and Meachem.
Projection: 70 catches, 800 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns (128 pts, 198 PPR)
28. Wes Welker (New England)
Wes Welker had 86 catches for 848 yards and 7 touchdowns last year despite the fact that on week 1 he was just 8 months removed from tearing two knee ligaments. What torn ligaments? Many expect him to bounce back to 2007 form (112 catches for 1175 yards and 8 touchdowns) or 2008 form (111 catches for 1165 yards and 4 touchdowns with Matt Cassel) or even 2009 form (123 catches for 1348 yards and 4 touchdowns in just 13 games). I don’t expect him to go that far back. He didn’t have to contend with Danny Woodhead or Rob Gronkowski or Aaron Hernandez in any of those 3 seasons. Now he does.
Projection: 95 catches, 970 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns (127 pts, 222 PPR)
29. Nate Burleson (Detroit)
8/28/11: Matt Stafford is going to be going deep a lot more than Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton did last season. Burleson caught 12 catches for 179 yards and 1 touchdown in 3 games with Stafford last season, good for 64 catches for 955 yards and 5 touchdowns. Burleson has looked good this preseason with and without Johnson in the lineup. With the way Stafford is playing, there’s fantasy value with both Burleson and Johnson.
Projection: 65 catches, 850 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns (127 pts, 192 PPR)
30. Braylon Edwards (San Francisco)
The 49ers signing of Braylon Edwards was genius. Edwards will be as motivated as ever because the deal has financial incentives of 2.5 million dollars for making the Pro-Bowl, because it’s a one year deal which means he’s still in a contract year, and because he didn’t get the deal he wanted, which motivates him to prove doubters wrong. The upside with him is what he did in 2007, 80 catches for 1289 yards and 6 touchdowns plus turning Derek Anderson into a Pro-Bowler (which, for the record, I believe deserves at least 50, if not 100 fantasy points).
He’s the #1 guy in San Francisco. Michael Crabtree is missing his 3rd straight preseason with an injury and didn’t work out with the team during the offseason. However, I don’t know Edwards does what he did in 2007. He hasn’t shown anything like that since so I think the most we can expect from him in fantasy are WR3 numbers much like last year (53 catches for 904 yards and 7 touchdowns) with a lot of upside that he probably won’t reach.
Projection: 60 catches, 900 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns (126 pts, 186 PPR)
Fantasy Wide Receivers
Updated 9/3/10
This top 30 list also happens to be the same list as my “list of guys who if you have anyone else as your WR1 or WR2 you’re screwed list” (name pending). No offense to wide receivers 30+, but if you’re in a 10 or 12 team league, you don’t want the 31st or 32nd best wide receivers as your WR2. The players have been broken up into tiers to show which players will have similar production to the player above them and which will not.
Tier 1
1. Andre Johnson
Andre Johnson is the best wide receiver for fantasy purposes this year. Larry Fitzgerald is close to his level in terms of talent, but doesn’t have the talent at quarterback that Johnson has. Johnson had 101 catches for 1569 yards and 9 scores last year and 115 catches for 1575 yards and 8 scores the year before so we shouldn’t expect anything different from him this year.
2. Miles Austin
Austin had 81 catches for 1320 yards and 11 touchdowns last year, despite not becoming a starter until week 5. Take his stats weeks 5-17 and stretch them over a 16 game season and you get 101 catches for 1652 yards and 13 scores. That’s pretty good. Also consider the fact that he was drawing a bunch of double teams last year and probably won’t have to deal with that as much this year with Dez Bryant coming in. Johnson is the safer option this year, but I would not be surprised if Austin led receivers in fantasy points this year and I would not be afraid of taking Austin in the late 1st/early 2nd round this year.
3. Randy Moss
Randy Moss didn’t try at 100% last year. Even as a Patriots fan, I’ll admit that. Tom Brady also wasn’t a 100% all year, whether it be a finger injury, a rib bruise, or his knee problem. Moss will be playing 100% this year. He’s in his contract year. The last time he was in a contract year and Brady was healthy, Moss exploded for 23 scores. He won’t do that this year, but I think he surpasses his stats overall from last year. Last year he had 83 catches for 1264 yards and 13 scores, even at the age of 33.
4. Calvin Johnson
Johnson didn’t play well last year, but he was hurt so I’m not really going to hold that against him. This is the guy who caught 78 balls for 1331 yards and 12 scores in 2008, as a 23 year old on a 0-16 team with a load of crap at quarterback. If he’s healthy, he could surpass those stats with Matt Stafford at quarterback.
Tier 2
5. DeSean Jackson
DeSean Jackson also will have to deal with a presumed downgrade at quarterback going from Donovan McNabb to Kevin Kolb, although, unlike Leinart who has proven himself to not be very good, 70.8 QB rating in 595 career throws, Kolb is relatively unproven. In Kolb’s two starts last year, Jackson had 250 yards and 2 scores. That’s encouraging, but also a small sample. I think Jackson will be fine this year, but he’s not going to be quite what he was last year, 62 catches for 1159 yards and 9 scores, because I don’t think Kolb’s arm is quite as strong as McNabb’s and Jackson is the definition of a deep threat.
6. Roddy White
White is a reliable guy. He’s had at least 83 catches, 1153 yards, and 6 scores in each of the last 3 seasons. As long as Matt Ryan is still his quarterback, White should be good for 80-90 catches 1100-1200 yards and 8-10 scores.
7. Brandon Marshall
7/30/10: Marshall has been cleared to go full strength for training camp. This is huge for him as he is joining a new team, a new scheme, and pairs with a new quarterback. There’s also a much slimmer chance of any early season struggles for Marshall, who is coming off of a hip injury (you know, the one Josh McDaniels thought he was making up).
Marshall has had 100 catches and 1100+ yards in each of the past 3 years. However, last year his YPC fell from 13.0 and 12.2 to 11.1 because Denver’s new quarterback, Kyle Orton, didn’t have the arm strength to get the ball down to him downfield like his previous quarterback, Jay Cutler. Chad Henne, his quarterback in Miami, has arm strength that is closer to Cutler’s than Orton’s so I expect to see that YPC go back up. However, the 100 catches actually could be in some jeopardy. Marshall had hip surgery and will miss some of training camp. This is not good for his chemistry with new quarterback Chad Henne and for his adjustment to a new scheme. That being said, he missed some of training camp last year with new quarterback Kyle Orton and Josh McDaniels’ new scheme and still caught 100 balls. He should be a solid fantasy option and borderline WR1.
8. Greg Jennings
7/30/10: In his last 9 games, including the playoffs, he had 42 catches for 745 yards and 3 scores. Over 16 games, that’s 75 catches for 1324 yards and 6 scores. Whether it be him breaking out, or Driver getting older, or the improvement of the Packers line, allowing Rodgers to hit him deep, he was much better in the 2nd half last year. It will only continue this season. Their line improved in the offseason, Jennings is moving into the prime of his career as he turns age 27 in September, and Driver is not only old, but badly hurt. Those 75 catches for 1324 yards and 6 scores seem pretty realistic right now, possibly with even more touchdowns because of how explosive the Packers’ offense is. Expect 70-80 catches 1300-1400 yards and 6-8 scores.
Jennings struggled a bit last year with 68 catches for 1113 yards and 4 scores. However, he was a lot better after Clifton and Tauscher returned (as was their entire team it seems). Rodgers had more time in the pocket and more time to get the ball down the Jennings, his deep threat. In his last 9 games, including the playoffs, he had 42 catches for 745 yards and 3 scores. Over 16 games, that’s 75 catches for 1324 yards and 6 scores. With Clifton and Tauscher healthy for the start of this year, and Bryan Bulaga drafted in case one of them gets hurt, he could get close to those stats this year. Also, Donald Driver is getting up there in age so Jennings could see an increase in targets for that reason as well.
9. Steve Smith (CAR)
8/19/10: Any speculation that Smith and his broken arm would not be ready for the season or not in game shape for the season were destroyed when Smith was surprisingly activated from the PUP list a couple weeks before anyone expected him too. Smith was amazing in the 4 games that he and Matt Moore both started, with 398 yards and 3 scores, despite leaving midway through the 4th game with his first broken arm of the last 9 months. Smith is surprisingly underrated this year.
6/29/10: Smith broke his left arm recently. He is expected to return for the regular season, but he’ll miss valuable training time with two quarterbacks, Matt Moore and Jimmy Clausen, who he doesn’t have an extensive history with. He also may not be 100% come regular season. He may be out of shape. His recovery may also run long and he could miss a game or two. I’m knocking him down just a bit.
In the four games Steve Smith played with Matt Moore last year, he had 378 yards and 3 scores, despite leaving midway through the 4th game with a broken arm. This year, he is either going to have Matt Moore or Jimmy Clausen as his quarterback and I think both of them are better than Jake Delhomme was last year. He has a history of being inconsistent so it’s tough to extrapolate those 4 game stats across 16 games, but if you do, you get 1512 yards and 12 scores. Not bad considering he has had multiple 1400+ yard seasons in his career before. He should be a very solid WR2 and borderline WR1.
10. Reggie Wayne
Wayne is the model of consistency for fantasy football owners. He hasn’t missed a game for any reason since his rookie year, 2001. He has had 1000+ yards and 75+ catches in every season since 2004. His quarterback, Peyton Manning, also never misses games. Like ever. However, he may be wearing down a bit. In his last 10 games last year, including playoffs, he had 3 touchdowns, and only surpassed 100+ yards once. Granted, he was hurt, and he did have to face Darrelle Revis twice, but that’s not encouraging, especially at his age (he’ll be 32 in November) and with Pierre Garcon coming on as their #2 receiver. He should still be a solid WR1, but I don’t think he matches last year’s stats and I don’t think he’s quite a fantasy stud this year.
Tier 3
11. Larry Fitzgerald
8/24/10: Whether it be Leinart or Anderson, the Cardinals couldn’t do anything offensively against the Titans in their 2nd preseason game. For what it’s worth, Leinart was worse, but they both sucked. With Leinart it was all checkdowns and underthrows and with Anderson it was a bunch of inaccurate overthrows. Fitzgerald is good, but he can’t throw the ball to himself. He also has a lingering knee injury and lingering injuries sapped a lot of his production last year. He may have issues reaching both 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns this year.
I think Fitzgerald is due for a down year. The last time Matt Leinart was the Cardinals’ starting quarterback, Fitz had 69 catches for 946 yards and 6 scores. Leinart may have gotten a little better since then, but I wouldn’t count on it. Leinart really struggled last season in limited action and even the Cardinals’ themselves aren’t sold on him. That’s why they signed Derek Anderson and have considered signing Marc Bulger. In Leinart’s one start last year, Fitz had 4 catches for 34 yards.
12. Marques Colston
7/30/10: Colston has been placed on the PUP/Active list after failing his conditioning test, following offseason knee surgery. This is his 3rd straight offseason with knee issues so there are concerns here.
Colston is a boom or bust fantasy player on a weekly basis. He had 6 games of 50 or fewer yards last year, but also 6 games of 75 or more yards. He still ended up with 1000+ yards, but because of how many receivers New Orleans has, the title of Saints #1 receiver given to Colston doesn’t quite mean as much. He is inconsistent, but in every season he’s ever played more than 14 games, he’s had 1000 yards and at his size, 6-4, he should be his team’s primary goal line target.
13. Steve Smith (NYG)
8/10/10: Having Nicks opposite him does hurt him near the goal line, since Nicks is such an athletic goal line presence. Smith is still a lock for 100 receptions and 1000+ yards in my mind as their possession receiver and I love his consistency, but don’t expect him to get into the end zone very much this year.
Steve Smith is very underrated. If you type “Steve Smith ESPN” into Google, Carolina receiver Steve Smith and retired Miami Heat guard Steve Smith come up before the Giants’ Steve Smith come up. Smith had 57 or more yards in every single game except for 2 last year. That’s consistency. However, there are reasons not to like him. He’s not a goal line threat at 5-11 with only 7 scores last year and with the emergence of 6-1 Hakeem Nicks as a receiver, that could actually go down this year. Smith only had 3 scores after week 5 last year. Coincidentally, week 5 is the week when Hakeem Nicks started getting more and more action. This year, he’s probably a starter and will take away, not only touchdowns, but receptions in general from Smith and Smith is not a YAC or YPC guy who can do a lot without a lot of targets.
14. Malcom Floyd
9/2/10: If Jackson has truly played his last game as a Charger, Floyd’s value goes up even more. He has certainly looked like a #1 receiver this preseason and could match Jackson’s 2009 numbers, 1167 yards and 9 scores.
7/24/10: While Jackson is out, Floyd has even more time to build a bond with quarterback Phillip Rivers. If he doesn’t have 1000 yards this year, I would be shocked.
7/9/10: I had him as a sleeper based on the potential that Jackson would get suspended. Now Floyd will be the Chargers #1 receiver for at least 3 weeks next year. This guy already had 34 catches for 525 yards in his 8 starts last year as their #2 receiver, now he has at least 3 weeks of being the #1 guy in that offense and 3 weeks of no Vincent Jackson to take away red zone looks. This guy is a major sleeper and could be a top 15 fantasy wide receiver if Jackson gets traded.
Malcom Floyd broke out last year at age 28. He had 41 catches for 776 yards and 1 score. That 1 score looks like a fluke because he’s 6-5. I expect more touchdowns for him. Facing his first full season as a starter, 40 catches for 750 yards and 5 scores looks like the floor for him. His ceiling is a lot higher. In his last 8 games, after Chris Chambers’ release officially made him a starter, Floyd had 34 catches for 525 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 68 catches for 1050 yards. Add in the fact that Vincent Jackson could be facing a 4 game suspension to start the season, making Floyd Phillip Rivers’ #1 receiver, and you’ve got yourself a fantasy sleeper.
15. Wes Welker
8/24/10: Good to see him in there and healthy. In fact, if I didn’t see it myself, I wouldn’t have believed that this guy was ever in a freak injury accident week 17 last year. Leading the league in receptions last year despite missing 3 games with injury makes this guy a PPR god, and he’s pretty good in normal leagues too.
7/24/10: Welker has been cleared for training camp, which pretty much guarantees that Welker, who tore two ligaments on his knee back in January, will be in the starting lineup week 1. For anyone who was smart and listened to me when I said he was my 19th ranked wide receiver and got Welker in the 8th, 9th or 10th round, congratulations. However, now that the cat’s out of the bag about Welker, he’s going to start going a lot earlier. You won’t be able to get him where you could before. Nonetheless, I do have to move him up even more. Assuming he’s close to 100% and doesn’t get hurt again, Welker, one of the toughest guys in the league, should be good for another 100 receptions and 1000 yards. He’s not a touchdown threat, but he’s a PPR god. This is the man who had 123 receptions for 1348 yards last year despite missing 2 games and most of a 3rd with injuries.
6/2/10: I wanted to make sure he was healthy (or healthy ish) before putting him on this list, but Welker did something that amazed me yesterday. He practiced. Less than 5 months after tearing his ACL and MCL and less than 4 months after major knee surgery, Welker was on the field at Patriot OTAs practicing at what reports call “75 percent.” ADP has Welker going as the 21th wide receiver off the board at somewhere around pick 56. I’m putting him at 19 because I think Welker is the type of guy who’s going to exceed expectations. He always does. He’s not an end zone threat, but this is a guy who missed 2 (really 3 because of that first quarterback knee injury week 17) games last year and still caught 123 balls for 1348 yards and 4 scores. I’ll take the chance on him before I take a chance on any of the other guys on this list below him.
Tier 4
16. Mike Sims-Walker
Sims-Walker was extremely inconsistent last year. He had 5 games of 30 yards or fewer, thought 6 games of 80 yards or greater. His inconsistencies appear excusable, thanks to injuries and Darrelle Revis and lack of playing time early on, but he may prove this year that he’s just overall an inconsistent guy. It doesn’t help that he’s playing in an inconsistent offense for an inconsistent team. All in all, I think he does better than the 63 catches for 869 yards and 7 scores he had last year, this year, assuming he stays healthy.
17. Anquan Boldin
8/24/10: Boldin only has 2 receptions in his first 2 preseason games and simply is not being targeted as much as Flacco’s longest tenured target, Derrick Mason. This could continue into the season, even though Boldin is more physically impressive.
Anquan is now the main man in Baltimore, rather than Fitz’ two number in Arizona, so I think he sees an increase in percentage of targets, especially near the goal line. He only had 4 touchdowns last year, which is ridiculous for a 6-1 217 receiver, because Fitzgerald, at 6-3 222, has always been Arizona’s main goal line guy. That won’t be the case this year. However, Baltimore threw 84 fewer times than Arizona last year. One would think that Baltimore will throw more this year, with Joe Flacco maturing more in his 3rd year, and with some actual deep threat receivers, but if they don’t, Boldin’s numbers could actually decrease across the board, with the exception of touchdowns. My best guess is that he’ll have similar catches, 84, and yards, 1024 than last year, with a few more touchdowns, but he could be a little better and a little worse than that, depending on how often the Ravens throw and how he adjusts to a new scheme and a new quarterback, which is not a given either.
Tier 5
18. Pierre Garcon
I am down on Wayne this year and up on Pierre Garcon. He had some injury issues late, but in the last 9 games he played, including the playoffs, he had 50 catches for 723 yards and 4 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 89 catches, 1285 yards, and 13 scores. He’s going into that magical 3rd season breakout year (which for some reason never fails) and Wayne is getting older and struggled late last year. I am not guaranteeing a thousand yard season, but I think he very well could have 1000+ yards.
19. Michael Crabtree
Crabtree had everything go wrong for him last year (though most of that was his fault). He missed the first 5 games. He missed training camp so he didn’t practice the offense anywhere near enough before he played and he had to establish chemistry with Alex Smith in a pinch. He also was a rookie and rookie receivers, for the most part, struggle. Yet, he still had 48 catches for 625 yards and 2 scores. Even by adding in those 5 other games at his pace, you’d get 70 catches for 909 yards and 3 scores. However, I think he’ll increase the pace in his 2nd year, with a greater understanding of the offense and his quarterback, as well as a greater comfortably having gone through his first training camp and not being thrown into action starting week 7. He’ll also increase in terms of touchdowns. He has good size at 6-1 214 and I don’t think Vernon Davis will vulture as many of his scores this year as he did last year. Expect 70-80 catches for 900-1000 yards and 5-7 scores. That makes him a borderline WR2.
20. Dwayne Bowe
Bowe has had a bad past few months. First he was suspended 4 games for performance enhancing drug use and never got back on terms with his team and his quarterback. Then, this month, he made some questionable comments that basically said his team would “import” woman to their hotel rooms on roadtrips. Now, we don’t have to jump to conclusions. Maybe they were being “imported” to make them sandwiches, but it certainly doesn’t look good for him or his team. All that being said, he’s his team’s most talented receiver and I expect him to be the #1 option next year. His quarterback is not very good, but this is the same guy who had 86 catches for 1022 yards and 7 scores in 2008 with Tyler Thigpen at quarterback. Hell, even Chris Chambers had 608 yards and 4 scores in 9 games as the #1 option last year. There’s always a chance that Chambers comes out as the #1 option or as a 1B option or that Dexter McCluster steals a good chunk of receptions. Weirder things have happened in Kansas City. However, I think Bowe has a good chance to get back to that 1000 yard mark, though he is a boom or bust type player.
21. Hakeem Nicks
8/10/10: Reports say Mario Manningham is likely to be the Giants new punt returner, which makes it less and less likely that Manningham is going to start over the 2nd year Hakeem Nicks this year. Nicks is also getting the first team reps in training camp. My biggest concern with Nicks was not talent, but getting on the field, but I think it’s safe to say he’ll be their #2 receiver when the season starts. Nicks was tied with Percy Harvin for the lead in rookie receiving yards and receiving touchdowns last year despite not being a starter for most of the year so Nicks could approach 1000 yards and 8-10 touchdowns as his team’s main goal line threat.
A lot to like and a lot not to like. Nicks actually was tied for the lead in rookie receiving yards with Harvin last year, despite not being a starter for most of the season. He’s probably going to be a starting receiver this year, with Mario Manningham in the slot. His frame at 6-1 makes him likely to be his team’s favorite goal line wideout and we’ve seen the success that receivers like big receivers like Plaxico Burress have had with Manning before. He’s a big YAC and YPC guy with 16.8 YPC last year and 18.0 YPC in his finale year in college, so he can do a lot without getting a ton of targets. In fact, he only had 71 targets all last year and still managed to get 790 yards. More than 50% of his yards (423) were in YAC. He also had 8 games of 4 of more catches in 14 games last year, very consistent for a rookie. However, YPC and YAC notoriously fluctuate somewhat from year to year. He’s also not even a lock to be a starter on his team.
22. Terrell Owens
8/19/10: Owens has definitely appeared the Batman to Ocho’s Robin, with 10 targets for 6 catches and 41 yards, as opposed to Ocho’s 3 targets for one 4 yard reception. I’m calling Owens the #1 guy in Cincinnati this year, though he’ll have plenty of other receivers to compete with.
7/27/10: Owens has officially signed. It appears he will beat out the injury prone Antonio Bryant for a starting job and with a real quarterback this year, it wouldn’t be ridiculous to believe he could go for 900+ yards. Consider him a late WR2 or early WR3.
The Rams are reportedly very interested in Terrell Owens. He remains a sleeper and a good value for now so I’d say draft him in the late rounds. He will have a rookie quarterback in Sam Bradford, but last year he had 829 yards and 5 scores on a crappy offensive team with a quarterback who didn’t have the arm strength to hit him deep. At least Bradford has a stronger arm than Trent Edwards or even Ryan Fitzpatrick, with whom he had a good bond with late. He could be a borderline WR3 this year. In 9 games where Fitzpatrick threw more than 20 passes, Owens had 534 yards and 4 scores. Stretch that over 16 games and you’ve got 949 yards and 7 scores. If he signs with the Rams, 800-900 yards and 5-7 scores isn’t crazy to expect.
23. Chad Ochocinco
8/19/10: Ochocinco has looked downright horrible in the preseason so far, looking significantly older and slower than Owens. There’s no doubt that Owens is the better receiver, at least now. That may change in a few weeks.
7/27/10: I think Ocho and TO can coexist on the same team, but that doesn’t mean Ocho won’t have a decrease in production. Owens is better than Bryant, who would have been lining up across from him before. We saw what happened to Lee Evans after he teamed up with Owens last year. He had 405 fewer yards. Ochocinco is more talented than Evans and Carson Palmer is more talented than anyone Buffalo had at quarterback, but Ochocinco is far from a lock from 1000 yards anymore, especially with the addition of other guys like Jordan Shipley and Jermaine Gresham to his offense around him.
There are a few reasons not to like Chad Eight Five this year. The Bengals brought in a ton, and I mean a ton, of receivers this offseason, Antonio Bryant, Jermaine Gresham, Jordan Shipley, Dezmon Briscoe, Matt Jones. That will take double teams away from Ocho, but you can’t argue that having a capable #2 a capable slot guy and a capable tight end in there is not going to cut down on his targets and I think that hurts him more than it helps him. He’s also 32 and not getting any younger. He should still get 60-80 catches, 1000+ yards and 8-10 scores, but he’s no lock any more.
24. Hines Ward
9/3/10: Ward has long been Big Ben’s favorite receiver so he of course gets a stock boost with Ben’s suspension getting cut.
Hines Ward is due for a bad year. First, Big Ben is not going to start the first 6 games. In the 2 games Big Ben has missed over the last 4 years, Ward has a combined 8 catches for 100 yards and a score. Not exactly anything to get excited about. Ward is also 34 and will have a hard time keeping up the stats he had last year, which, in terms of catches and yards, were his 2nd highest stats in his career. Before last year, he had only had 1 1000+ yard seasons in the last 4 and hadn’t had an 1100+ yard season since 2003, when he was 27. Ward also has a bad hamstring injury and hamstring injuries tend to linger longer than most.
25. Derrick Mason
8/24/10: Despite all the new weapons the Ravens gave Joe Flacco this offseason, he’s still doing what he knows how to do best in the preseason, throwing it to Derrick Mason. Mason only has one season of 1000 yards or less in the past 10 years and could challenge for another 1000 yard season this year, even with all these new weapons around him. Even if he doesn’t get 1000 yards, he’ll be close and he’s extremely undervalued this year.
Tier 6
26. Mike Wallace
9/3/10: An amazing player this preseason, Wallace gets his starting quarterback back 2 weeks earlier and thus is a great sleeper. He’s a WR2 when Ben’s in the lineup.
Wallace is another boom or bust guy (as Nicks was before him and the next two after him will be). Wallace had 39 catches for 756 yards and 6 scores last year as a rookie and a slot receiver. He will be Pittsburgh’s #2 this year with Santonio Holmes. However, with any role change, there’s always some risk. He’ll have more targets, but also face more and better coverage and more and better attention from opposing defenses. Also, not having Big Ben and his big arm for 6 games to get him the ball downfield hurts. His 19.4 YPC is also pretty scary. YPC tend to fluctuate from year to year. I can’t imagine him keeping that up so he’ll probably have to catch significantly more balls to increase his yards.
27. Robert Meachem
Meachem was not the most consistent guy last year, with 6 games of 20 or fewer yards. A lot of that had to do with the fact that he was not a starter until midseason, but even when he was a starter, he was inconsistent, with 6 games of 2 or fewer catches after week 10, including playoffs. The Saints have way too many receivers to consider anyone other than Colston a safe WR2 bet. The only reason Meachem was a good fantasy option last year was he had 9 touchdowns, 7 in his last 9 games, but that’s no safe bet either. Touchdowns for receivers have a knack for being very inconsistent on a yearly basis and the fact that New Orleans has so many other good receivers doesn’t help with the inconsistencies.
28. Santana Moss
Moss has 790 or more yards in each of the last 7 years. Over this time, he has had Vinny Testaverde, Chad Pennington, Patrick Ramsey, Mark Brunell (age 35), Todd Collins, and Jason Campbell as his quarterbacks. Now he has Donovan McNabb. McNabb, overall is a better quarterback than any of those 6, and he has a significantly stronger arm than all 6 of those as well. This is going to allow Moss to get more deep bombs, increasing his pedestrian 14.9 YPC and allowing him to show off all of his natural 4.3 speed. He’s not a touchdown threat at 5-10, but he’s still a very talented player in a great position as McNabb’s #1 option and could very well have his 4th career 1000+ yard season. It’s not like he hasn’t had one in a while. He had one just two years ago in 2008.
29. Jeremy Maclin
8/15/10: Maclin was the most targeted Eagles receiver when Kolb was in the game, a very good sign because I wasn’t sure how the talented 2nd year receiver would mesh with his new quarterback, given his inexperience.
Maclin ended last year strong with 50+ yards in each of his last 7 games and 40+ in each of his last 10 and one would expect him to get better in his 2nd year. However, there’s no telling how he’ll adjust to a new quarterback. The downgrade from McNabb to Kolb could hurt him. Consider him a boom or bust guy.
30. Percy Harvin
8/29/10: When healthy, Harvin is the Vikings best receiver, now that Sidney Rice has gone down with a hip injury. It’s definitely a good sign that he has been practicing and now playing in games without issues and the news that doctors may have found a sort of cure for his migraines is great for his fantasy value. If healthy, he’s a strong WR2 with Rice out.
8/19/10: After passing out at training camp, it’s become painfully obvious that Harvin is nowhere near ready for live NFL action. He remains a major health risk for this season and I can think of plenty of better things to do with a mid round pick than use it on Harvin. It is sad though, because he’s got plenty of talent.
8/10/10: Harvin’s chronic migraines are looking like something that could be a major issue for him. He hasn’t practiced in over a week because of them and there appears to be no end in sight. If his migraines ever flared up like this in the season, like they did last year, he would miss games and that would hurt him. This looks like a very concerning situation for the 2nd year receiver.
8/6/10: Hey, you know that whole Brett Favre retiring thing. Turns out it was pretty much a hoax. Even though no one in the media heard it straight from his mouth that he was retiring, the entire world went into a panic and assumed he was retiring because of some alleged text messages.
8/3/10: Downgrade at quarterback = less stats.
Anyone who just watches ESPN and doesn’t know stats or Harvin would take a chance on Harvin way early than he should. ESPN loves Harvin because of his big play ability. However, the 2009 offensive rookie of the year only had 790 yards and 6 scores last year. He also had 135 yards rushing last year, but Minnesota has said they no longer play to use him in the wildcat, probably because they drafted wildcat quarterback Joe Webb in the 6th. He also had 6 games of 41 or fewer yards and he has a very dubious injury history.
Fantasy Tip: KISS
If you’re expecting this tip to be about Gene Simmons and his giant tongue, you’re out of luck. KISS=Keep it simple stupid and it is a great tip for fantasy owners at this time of year. The NFL Preseason starts this week and people with upcoming fantasy drafts will be looking very closely. Every 20+ yard catch, every 20+ yard completion, every touchdown, every 15+ yard run is reason to move someone up your fantasy board. Right? Wrong. Preseason stats rarely matter. Save yourself some time and look at these 5 types of players this preseason.
Guys coming back from injury: For these guys, the preseason does matter. These guys coming back from injury, however good they were before, have to prove themselves again before you can truly feel safe using an early pick on them, especially with running backs.
Guys who get injured: This one is obvious so I almost don’t have to put this down, but if a guy gets hurt in the preseason, so does his fantasy stock. Injury reports are our friends. Unless they are coming from Bill Belicheck, they are most likely accurate. There’s a big difference between a guy going out with a knee sprain and a guy going out with an ACL tear.
Rookies: While players coming back from injury have to prove themselves all over again, rookies have to prove themselves. Period.
Guys in position battles: Here you should not pay attention to the stats as much as who’s getting the reps on the field, especially during weeks 3 and 4. If a player gets a week 3 or week 4 start in the preseason, he’ll likely get the week 1 start. If you believe in the ability of a player who is trapped in a position battle, watch to see if he’s on the field a lot in the preseason.
Guys you’ve never heard of: The preseason is a great time to see the abilities of players you’ve never heard of, for three reasons. One, they could get playing time this season if there’s an injury, allowing you to pick them up off of waivers, two, they could get playing time in future season and if you plan on playing fantasy football in the future its good to know the abilities of players that other drafters haven’t heard of, and three because if they’re getting preseason reps, they could win a starting job and if they do that, you could get them for cheaper in fantasy drafts because other drafters haven’t heard of them either.
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