Year: 2012

Detroit Lions: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Lions

Last week: 19 (-6)

Record: 4-6

I’ve said it a bunch of times this year, but every year, one team goes from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. It’s looked like a shaky prediction as times this year, especially since every single playoff team from last year is 5-5 or better right now, except one (Saints and Bengals are both 5-5, so they’re still technically candidates). The Lions are that one team and if you look at their remaining schedule, it’s not hard to imagine some way they go 1-5 over their final 6 games. They host Houston and Indianapolis, go to Green Bay and Arizona, then host Atlanta and Chicago.

Studs

RT Gosder Cherilus: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 49 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 4 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts

WR Calvin Johnson: Caught 5 passes for 143 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts on 49 pass snaps, 4.4 YAC per catch, 1 drop

DT Nick Fairley: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

Duds

QB Matt Stafford: 17 of 39 for 266 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, 2 drops, pressured on 17 of 46 drop backs (5 sacks, 1 scramble, 6 of 11, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception)

RG Stephen Peterman: Allowed 7 quarterback hurries on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 14 yards on 4 attempts

LT Riley Reiff: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 5 yards on 1 attempt

TE Tony Scheffler: Caught 2 passes for 22 yards on 10 attempts on 34 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to

WR Titus Young: Caught 1 pass for 24 yards on 7 attempts on 45 pass snaps, 7.0 YAC per catch, 2 penalties, 1 interception when thrown to

TE Brandon Pettigrew: Caught 4 passes for 22 yards on 6 attempts on 37 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, allowed 1 quarterback hit on 5 pass block snaps

MLB Stephen Tulloch: 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 3 missed tackles, allowed 3 catches for 33 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

RB Stefan Logan: 1 punt return for 0 yards, 1 fumble, 2 kickoff returns for 45 yards

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New York Jets: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Jets

Last week: 27 (+1)

Record: 4-6

The Jets were bound to bounce back last week. Teams that lose back-to-back games by 21 or more go 36-16 ATS in their next game. However, it still isn’t a promising sign going forward. For every one good Mark Sanchez performance, he has 3 bad ones. Don’t believe me? This year he’s had 3 games in which he’s had a QB rating over 90 in which he attempted 20 or more passes (including last week). In the game immediately after the first 2, he was a combined 38 of 81 for 421 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, he led his team to 19 combined points in a 9 point loss and a 21 point loss.

In fact, excluding those 3 games and one in which he passed for just 82 yards, but still had a QB rating over 100 somehow, his season high QB rating was 66.6. This week, on short rest, he gets a red hot and pissed off Patriots team that has added a new #1 cornerback since the last time they played. They’re stuck with Sanchez into 2013 because he’s owed 8.25 million fully guaranteed, but let’s hope that once Rex Ryan and Mike Tannenbaum are fired, the new regime will send Tebow somewhere he can start, because he is one of the top-32 quarterbacks in the NFL.

Studs

QB Mark Sanchez: 15 of 20 for 178 yards and a touchdown, 2 drops, 107.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 4 of 24 drop backs (3 sacks, 0 of 1)

LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson: Did not allow a pressure on 24 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

C Nick Mangold: Did not allow a pressure on 24 pass block snaps, run blocked for 52 yards on 13 attempts

RG Brandon Moore: Did not allow a pressure on 24 pass block snaps, run blocked for 28 yards on 6 attempts

SS Eric Smith: Allowed 2 catches for 17 yards on 7 attempts, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

Duds

WR Stephen Hill: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 11 pass snaps, 1 drop, 1 penalty

LE Mike DeVito: Did not record a pressure on 10 pass rush snaps, 1 missed tackle

MLB Bart Scott: 1 assist, 1 missed tackle, was not thrown on

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Philadelphia Eagles: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles

Last week: 21 (-6)

Record: 3-7

The Phillies have won more recently than the Eagles. The Eagles’ 3 wins this season have come by a combined 4 points. They’ve now lost 6 games in a row and appear to have completely quit on Andy Reid. Last week I said that Andy Reid be brought back if Foles impressed, but Foles did the exact opposite of impressing last week, going 21 of 46 for 204 yards and 2 touchdowns against Washington’s crappy secondary in a 31-6 loss. In fact, he was so bad that Michael Vick has made a miraculous recovery from a concussion that looked season ending last week. I think Reid knows he’s a dead man walking and doesn’t care anymore and his players certainly don’t either. Expect them to bring in a new regime who brings in their own quarterback because neither Vick or Foles is a long term solution.

Studs

LG Evan Mathis: Did not allow a pressure on 53 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

MLB DeMeco Ryans: 9 solo tackles, 6 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 2 catches for 7 yards on 2 attempts

LE Jason Babin: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 5 quarterback hurries on 15 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 2 stops

DT Mike Patterson: 3 quarterback hurries on 12 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

DT Fletcher Cox: 4 quarterback hurries on 13 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops

Duds

QB Nick Foles: 21 of 46 for 204 yards and 2 interceptions, 2 batted passes, 4 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 5 drops, 56.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 17 of 50 drop backs (4 sacks, 5 of 13, 1 interception, 3 throw aways, 1 hit as thrown, 1 drop)

RB LeSean McCoy: Rushed for 45 yards (34 after contact) on 15 attempts, 1 broken tackle, 1 fumble, 1 penalty, allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 17 pass block snaps, caught 6 passes for 67 yards on 6 attempts

RG Jake Scott: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 53 pass block snaps, 3 penalties

WR DeSean Jackson: Caught 2 passes for 5 yards on 7 attempts on 50 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

TE Clay Harbor: Caught 1 pass for -1 yard on 5 attempts on 19 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 1 pass block snap

WR Jeremy Maclin: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 51 pass snaps, 1 penalty

CB Nnamdi Asomugha: Allowed 4 catches for 75 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

RE Trent Cole: 1 quarterback hurry on 16 pass rush snaps, 1 missed tackle

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Cleveland Browns: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 28 (+0)

Record: 2-8

The Browns haven’t been run out of the building by anyone this year. They’ve only lost one game by more than 10 this year and at was a game that was closer than the final score and one in which they led by 14 early. So that’s encouraging. However, it’s really an issue that this team can’t seem to win close games and it’s not just this year. Since the start of the 2010 season, they’ve lost 18 games by 7 points or fewer, by far most in the NFL. Even last week when they jumped out to a 13-0 lead on the road in Dallas, I wasn’t too worried that I picked Dallas in survivor because I felt the Cowboys had a very good chance to come back and sure enough they did.

Studs

FS Usama Young: 1 sack on 1 blitz, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops, was not thrown on

Duds

LG John Greco: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 34 yards on 7 attempts

CB Sheldon Brown: Allowed 10 catches for 129 yards and a touchdown on 14 attempts, 1 pass deflection

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Carolina Panthers: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers

Last week: 29 (+0)

Record: 2-8

This team’s struggles in close games in the 4th quarter get more ridiculous every game. How did they blow that 21-10 late lead? After losing in overtime to the Buccaneers last week, Cam Newton is now 1-11 in games decided by a touchdown or less. The good news is he’s 7-7 in all other games and if he were even average in close games, this would have been a .500 team over the past few seasons. However, look at his career stats in the 4th quarter when the game is within 7 points: 65 of 123 (52.8%) for 887 yards (7.2 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.  That’s an issue.

Studs

QB Cam Newton: 16 of 29 for 252 yards and a touchdown, 1 throw away, 1 spike, 2 hit as thrown, 2 drops, 96.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 20 of 34 drop backs (2 sacks, 3 scrambles, 7 of 15, 1 touchdown, 1 throw away, 2 hit as thrown), rushed for 40 yards (11 after contact) on 11 attempts, 2 broken tackles

LOLB Thomas Davis: Allowed 6 catches for 39 yards on 6 attempts, 12 solo tackles, 3 assists, 6 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty

SS Charles Godfrey: Did not allow a completion on 2 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 1 batted pass

FS Haruki Nakamura: Did not allow a completion on 1 attempt, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles

DT Dwan Edwards: 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 47 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 stops

RE Greg Hardy: 1 sack, 3 quarterback hits, and 7 quarterback hurries on 46 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty

Duds

C Geoff Hangartner: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 6 yards on 4 attempts

LG Amini Silatolu: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 31 yards on 11 attempts

RG Garry Williams: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 4 attempts

WR Louis Murphy: Caught 1 pass for 12 yards on 3 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

DT Ron Edwards: Did not record a pressure on 14 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Oakland Raiders: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 30 (+0)

Record: 3-7

The Raiders have lost two straight in embarrassing fashion, losing 55-20 to the Ravens and 38-17 to the Saints last week at home and they’ve now allowed 135 points in their last 3 games. The good news is that teams generally do well after two straight losses by 21 or more (36-16 ATS since 2002), as they’re embarrassed and overlooked. If the Raiders can’t have a rebound game this week against an overrated Bengals team, it might be time to wonder if they’ve simply quit. Their new front office inherited a mess and it will take at least another year or two to get them back to even being respectable. Before his death, Al Davis really mortgaged their future for two 8-8 seasons (makes sense since he was dying).

Studs

RB Marcel Reece: Rushed for 103 yards (84 after contact) on 19 attempts, 3 broken tackles, caught 4 passes for 90 yards on 5 attempts, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 8 pass block snaps

Duds

RG Mike Brisiel: Allowed 5 quarterback hurries on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 16 yards on 3 attempts

TE Brandon Myers: Caught 6 passes for 55 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts on 35 pass snaps, 5.8 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 2 interceptions from thrown to, allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 7 pass block snaps

WR Denarius Moore: Caught 1 pass for 9 yards on 7 attempts on 34 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch

LOLB Miles Burris: 9 solo tackles, 4 stops, 2 missed tackles, allowed 8 catches for 63 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts

CB Michael Huff: Allowed 3 catches for 55 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

DT Tommy Kelly: Did not record a pressure on 23 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

RE Matt Shaughnessy: Did not record a pressure on 20 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 1-9

I used to think the Chiefs were better than the Jaguars, but I don’t really think there’s any difference between the two now that Brady Quinn is going to be the Chiefs’ starting quarterback; in fact, the Jaguars might even be better if Chad Henne can establish himself as clearly better than Gabbert (he had a great game last week, but he’s known for being inconsistent). I don’t know what the Chiefs are thinking by starting Quinn. He only thing he’s going to be good for is making sure they can get a top-2 pick, which maybe answers my question. They’ll almost definitely be looking at a quarterback early, but unfortunately for them, this isn’t really a strong quarterback class.

Studs

RB Jamaal Charles: Rushed for 87 yards (26 after contact) on 17 attempts, caught 4 passes for 31 yards on 5 attempts, 1 drop

TE Tony Moeaki: Caught 4 passes for 73 yards on 5 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch

SS Eric Berry: Allowed 2 catches for 28 yards on 4 attempts, 13 solo tackles, 1 assist, 9 stops

FS Abram Elam: Allowed 1 catch for 5 yards on 1 attempt, 1 penalty, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

P Dustin Colquitt: 7 punts for 352 yards, 3 inside 20, 4 returns for 24 yards, 44.0 net yards per punt

Duds

LT Branden Albert: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 20 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 2 attempts

WR Steve Breaston: Caught 1 pass for 13 yards on 2 attempts on 26 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Brandon Flowers: Allowed 5 catches for 89 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 1-9

It’s still neck and neck for them and the Chiefs. I don’t know if it really matters. They both suck. I think it will take one team winning to show any separation between them and I don’t see that happening. Gabbert has been put on IR with elbow and forearm problems, but it really just seems like a convenient way for Mike Mularkey to get Chad Henne 6 games to show if he has anything in this offense.

He looked good against Houston’s tough defense, going 16 of 33 for 354 yards and 4 touchdowns, but he’s always been inconsistent. He’s still the same quarterback that got benched for Matt Moore in Miami and who completed 9 of 20 for 71 yards against Oakland’s terrible secondary, blowing a big lead, a few weeks ago. I guess it’s wise for the Jaguars to see what they have with him, but they’ll probably be disappointed.

As for Gabbert, you can’t help but wonder if he’s played his last snap with the Jaguars. His tenure with the Jaguars was a miserable failure from the start and a terrible decision by Gene Smith to trade up and grab a media hyped kid who never did anything of note in the conference where defenses go to die, the Big 12. This teams looks destined for 1-15 or 2-14 and Gene Smith, the architect of this disaster, could be fired, leaving Gabbert without his greatest backer and putting a new front office in charge of a top-2 draft pick.

Studs

QB Chad Henne: 16 of 33 for 354 yards and 4 touchdowns, 3 batted passes, 5 drops, 99.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 13 of 36 drop backs, (1 sack, 2 scrambles, 4 of 10, 1 drop)

WR Justin Blackmon: Caught 7 passes for 236 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 14.9 YAC per catch, 1 drop

DT CJ Mosley: 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hit on 30 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops

Duds

RB Jalen Parmele: Rushed for 80 yards (40 after contact) on 24 attempts, 1 broken tackle, caught 3 passes for 3 yards on 3 attempts, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 12 pass block snaps

LT Eugene Monroe: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 39 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 33 yards on 12 attempts

LG Mike Brewster: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 39 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

SS Dawan Landry: Allowed 5 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Russell Allen: Allowed 9 catches for 83 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts, 14 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop

CB Aaron Ross: Allowed 5 catches for 88 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5 attempts, 2 penalties, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

RE Jeremy Mincey: Did not record a pressure on 51 pass rush snaps, no tackles, 1 penalty

DT Tyson Alualu: 1 quarterback hurry on 44 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

LE George Selvie: Did not record a pressure on 22 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist

DT Terrance Knighton: Did not record a pressure on 24 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

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Houston Texans at Detroit Lions: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Lions, Texans

Houston Texans (9-1) at Detroit Lions (5-5)

Every year the Lions have a Thanksgiving home game and every year they struggle. They’ve covered just once in their last 9 Thanksgiving home games. Even last year when they were good and made the playoffs for the first time in a decade, they didn’t play well on Thanksgiving, losing 27-15 against the Green Bay Packers. Most of these losses haven’t even been close: 20-12 in 2002, 41-9 in 2004 (2003 was the year they won), 27-7 in 2005, 27-10 in 2006, 37-26 in 2007, 47-10 in 2008, 34-12 in 2009, 45-24 in 2010, and then of course the game last year.

However, this year they are in a good spot on Thanksgiving. Teams are 96-53 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011, including 15-4 ATS as home dogs before being home favorites (the Lions host the Colts next week), though when you go back to 2008 to get a larger sample size, teams are just 21-15 ATS as home dogs before being home favorites. Still, it’s a good spot for the Lions.

We’re also getting some line value with the Lions. The rate of sustaining drives differential method of calculating line value (which Houston leads the league in), says this line should be Houston -4.5, but the yards per play differential method says that Detroit should actually be favored by 2.5 points. Average those out and you get that this line should be around Houston -1. This line was closer to that earlier this week, but heavy action on the Texans has driven it all the way up to Houston -3.5. Given that the odds makers have lost a lot of money over the past 3 weeks and they’re bound to make it up, it’s not a smart idea to take heavy public leans this week, though I guess it’s good to see the line moving in the correct direction. There’s no opposite line movement here.

The Texans are in a good spot too though. Teams are 10-3 ATS off an overtime win as double digit favorites since 1989. It seems that almost suffering a major upset has the same impact as actually suffering a major upset (teams do really well after suffering a major upset as well). It’s a big wakeup call and I expect the Texans to be 100% this week. Remember the Patriots after their overtime win against the Jets (45-7) and even the 49ers last week after their tie with the Rams? The Texans are that caliber of a team. The Lions, meanwhile, are just 7-12 ATS since 2001 after playing the Packers, which is something that could have an impact on this game.

There’s a lot of conflicting stuff going on in this one and it would be a zero unit pick if I did them, but gun to my head, I’d take Houston in this one, though it’d be low in any confidence pools. The reason is that, almost every year one team goes from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. Detroit is at 4-6 right now, while the rest of last year’s playoff teams are all 5-5 or better.

I’m probably going to bet against all 3 of last year’s playoff teams with 5 wins or fewer this week, especially Detroit because they look like the favorite to do so (their remaining schedule is brutal: vs. Houston, vs. Indianapolis, @ Green Bay, @ Arizona, vs. Atlanta, and vs. Chicago). With a 3.5 point spread, it’s conceivable the Lions could cover and not win (about 25% of the time when 3.5 point dogs lose, they still cover), which is why I would have preferred this line at -2, where it was earlier this week, but I don’t think Detroit wins this one, especially considering their history on Thanksgiving. It’s a very small play on Houston. I also like the under as the under is 72-53 on Thursday Night since 1989.

Houston Texans 24 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against spread: Houston -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

Total: Under 50.5 (-110) 1 unit

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New England Patriots at New York Jets: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Jets, Patriots

New England Patriots (7-3) at New York Jets (4-6)

The Patriots suffered a serious injury last week, losing Rob Gronkowski for at least 4 weeks with a broken arm. Gronkowski is an incredible football player and one of the top offensive players in the NFL and his absence obviously hurts. However, no one does the “next man up” thing offensively better than the Patriots. Remember when Aaron Hernandez went down and people thought it was a big deal?

Tom Brady’s favorite receiver has always been the open one. They’ll be fine without Gronkowski for a few weeks. They still have Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez (returning from injury this week), Brandon Lloyd, and Julian Edelman. That’s probably a better receiving corps than they had when they won their 3 Super Bowls. Tom Brady has never needed great receivers and no team makes week to week adjustments for injuries better than the Patriots.

They’re averaging 35.8 points per game this season, the 2nd most in NFL history (16 games seasons), right behind…yep, the 2007 Patriots. They’ve lost 3 games by a combined 4 points and won 7 games by a combined 137, leading the league with a +133 points differential. In a way, they’re playing as well as they did in 2007, without having the pressure of being undefeated thanks to some close losses. Defensively, Aqib Talib has stabilized things in the secondary, even if only a little. Coming off a 59 point performance against the Colts, I would not want to bet against them, especially since some people are doubting them in the wake of Gronkowski’s recent injury. They thrive off that kind of thing.

Despite their offensive outburst last week, this line hasn’t moved. It was at -7 last week and it’s at -7 again this week, probably because of the Gronkowski injury. I know the Jets won too, but before that they were regarded as one of the worst teams in the NFL. One win over a 3-6 Rams team doesn’t change that. Plus, teams typically fare well the week after scoring a ton of points as teams are 23-14 ATS as favorites since 1989 after scoring 49 or more points. It’s worth noting this line opened at -5.5, but a ton of action on the favorite drove it up to -7. I hate picking a heavily backed favorite given that the odds makers have been struggling of late and seem due for a big week, but at least the line movement is going in the right direction.

I mentioned I wouldn’t want to bet against the Patriots right now. Well, it’s generally not a good idea to bet on them in a regular season game in week 10 or later. In the last 3 years, they have not dropped a single regular season game in week 10 or later, going 18-0, winning by an average of 19.3 points per game and going 12-6 ATS. On average, they cover the spread by 12 points per game over that time period (including ATS losses). Those games have also gone over the total a ridiculous 16 out of 18 times, so I like the over here as well, even on Thursday Night.

Also, while the Patriots tend to struggle at home as favorites of more than a touchdown (6-11 ATS in the last 3 seasons), they are a covering machine in all other situations going 21-8 ATS. They were big home favorites in their last 2 games (1-1 ATS), but now they are on the road. It might seem weird to say that the Patriots are more likely to cover as big road favorites than big home favorites, but it’s true. Besides, look at their road wins this year. They beat Tennessee 34-13, Buffalo 52-28, and St. Louis 45-7 (on a neutral surface).

They’ll also have plenty of motivation in this one as the Jets almost beat them last time. Belichick hasn’t forgotten. The Patriots are 9-4 ATS trying to avenge an overtime game in the Belichick era, including 2-0 ATS in same season. They’re also 6-2 ATS avenging a same season win by less than a touchdown. They won’t let themselves be caught off guard by the Jets twice in the same season. All signs point to this being another blowout win for a Patriots team that already has a whopping 4 wins by 21 or more this season. I hate betting on huge public leans and betting against line value, but it’s a small play on the Patriots.

New England Patriots 34 New York Jets 17

Pick against spread: New England -7 (-110) 2 units

Total: Over 48 (-110) 1 unit

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