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Updated 4/17/10 

100 Once in a decade prospect 

95-99 Elite talent 

90-95 Solid top 10 pick 

85-90 Solid first round pick 

80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd 

75-80 Solid 2nd round pick 

70-75 Solid 3rd round pick 

65-70 3rd-4th round pick 

60-65 4th-5th round pick 

55-60 5th round pick 

50-55 6th round pick 

45-50 7th round pick 

40-45 Undrafted, invite to training camp 

30-40 Career practice squader 

20-30 No NFL future 

0-20 No football future 

 

1. Derrick Morgan (Georgia Tech) 91

Great combination of size and speed, and more important an excellent motor and initial explosiveness. He had 12 sacks this year and was also strong against the run at 275 pounds. The only thing stopping him from being a top ten pick lock is the fact that he won’t transition well to a 3-4 scheme, though I wouldn’t be surprised if a team tried to convert him to a 3-4 rush linebacker, though that’d be a mistake. He still has a good shot of going in the top ten and I think he has top ten talent at a position of huge value in the NFL.

2. Brandon Graham (Michigan) 87                     

3/1/10: Graham wasn’t expected to run well but a 4.69 40 at 6-1 268 showing some surprisingly athleticism. He also put up 31 reps of 225 pounds.

1/30/10: Graham had a huge Senior Bowl week. It started out bad when he measured up at just over 6 feet and with the shortest arms of any defensive lineman, but he really impressed in practice and even more so in the game. He won Senior Bowl MVP with 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble, a tackle for a loss, and 5 tackles. He was disruptive on almost every play and had more signature plays than any other player. He really hustled and earned a lot of praise from the commentators. He chased down Jarrett Brown, the fastest quarterback on either roster, from behind, something that will only show up on the stat sheet as a tackle. He’s a former linebacker, with an excellent motor and an excellent pass rushing repertoire, but he’s also extremely stout and disruptive against the run. He can play both 4-3 left end and 4-3 right end, in addition to rush linebacker. The commentators compared him to LaMarr Woodley of the Pittsburgh Steelers and I think that compar

ison is dead on. I think he cemented himself as a 1st round pick. 

1/27/10: Measuring in at just over 6 feet at his weigh in isn’t good, but he’s making scouts forget about his lack of height, with his play at practice this week. He has a very solid base and looks like a legitimate defensive line player in the NFL. His form against the run needs to be improved, but he has shown great speed rushing moves in addition to being one of the best young bull rushers at the Senior Bowl. If he can impress in coverage, he could be a 1^st round pick as either a defensive end or rush linebacker.

With 29 sacks in the last 3 years against Big 10 competition, Graham is a pass rushing machine, but despite his size, he isn’t great against the run. He’s best fit as a rush linebacker at the next level and I can’t see him fitting all schemes. His 40 time isn’t great either so he’ll be viewed as a bit of a tweener by the scouts and that could drop him down in the 3^rd round. He has first round upside as a rush linebacker though despite his lack of height and timed speed, assuming he can transition to a new position well and hold up in pass coverage.

3. Everson Griffen (USC) 85

3/1/10: Griffen put on about 10 pounds this season bulking up to 273 and there were some concerns about how he would carry the weight. After he ran a 4.64 40 today, those concerns should be gone. He also put up 32 reps of 225 pounds.

It’ll be interesting to see what he runs at the combine. He’s rumored to be able to run a 4.5 40, but he also put on 10 pounds of muscle this season so I’m not sure he can still run that fast. If he can, his stock could soar even though he never really did anything of note at USC in 3 seasons. 7 sacks this year after 9 combined in his first two years show good improvement and his run blocking form got a lot better this season with the added weight, but if his 40 time suffers, he may only be looked at as a left end, rather than a right end or rush linebacker. He’s still a major project either way.

4. Jerry Hughes (TCU) 83

26 sacks in the last 2 years for TCU for a guy just learning the defensive end position, after playing running back for most of his football career, is amazing, but he may be maxed out bulk wise at 257 pounds and he doesn’t have ideal height at 6-2. He’s a better fit as a rush linebacker, but he can play on the line some, though he’d be a liability against the run. He has a great motor and has shown plasticity and ability to learn new positions in the past. He also has good hands because he’s played on the offensive side of the ball before, but I’m not sure about his ability in pass coverage.

5. Carlos Dunlap (Florida) 80

A freakish athlete at 6-6 290 with 4.7 timed speed, we’ll see if he lives up to that at the combine, but he doesn’t seem to try on the field on every play. He makes a lot of big plays, but not nearly enough of the little things. Its like he only wants to fill his stat sheet and not win. He was also suspended late in the season after a DUI. He came back for the Sugar Bowl and had a nice game with 2 sacks, to give him 9 on the season, but 5 of those game in 2 games. He has huge upside, but major character red flags. If he’s this lazy now, imagine how lazy he’ll get if he signs a major NFL contract. Slipping to the 2^nd round could be good for him as he’d have to work to get a major NFL contract, but unfortunately, his upside is so huge that I doubt he actually does slip to the 2^nd round. He could even go as high as 8 to the Raiders.

6. Jason Pierre Paul (South Florida) 79                         

2/27/10: Weighing in at 6-5 270, JPP looked like an absolute physical freak. I can’t wait until his 40 yard dash. He hasn’t performed on a high level yet, but the upside is certainly there.

He’s a junior college legend, but didn’t impress in his first season in Division I with only 6.5 sacks. He’s a really fluid athlete who is comfortable dropping into coverage and he did get into the backfield a lot, though his sacks total was low, so I think he has a good future as a rush linebacker and he does have huge upside, but if he can’t dominate Division I, how can we expect him to the dominate the NFL. He can also play as a 4-3 defensive end, but I think he’s a better fit at rush linebacker.

7. Jermaine Cunningham (Florida) 77                        

2/27/10: As if he wasn’t already my favorite mid round sleeper, Cunningham measured in at 266 pounds today showing that he has the ability to play in the trenches in any 4-3 scheme. This defensive end class gets thin in the mid rounds so Cunningham could be looking at early 3^rd late 2^nd now.

He doesn’t have amazing athleticism, but he has an amazing motor and that’s really half of the battle. He would fit very well as a rush linebacker or a cover 2 defensive end. I think a lot higher of him than most places do and he’ll probably be drafted in the 4^th round at the highest, but he has borderline 2^nd round skills. His fundamentals are very sound.

 

8. Greg Hardy (Mississippi) 73           

3/23/10: I think he saved his stock and may have put himself back into day two consideration at his Pro Day. He lost about 8 pounds (now at 277) and ran 4.79, .8 seconds faster. He’s still talented and some teams may take this improvement and the lost weight as a sign of improvement. I still have my doubts, but this helps.          

3/1/10: First Hardy came to the combine at about 20 pounds heavier than expected and he did not carry that weight well running a 4.87 40. He also put up 21 reps of 225 pounds. He already has the injury prone label and if enough teams give him the lazy label, he won’t go before the 3^rd round.

2/27/10: He looked out of shape weighing in at 281 pounds, 20 more than expected. The injuries issues were already there in large part. The last thing he needed was concerns about his work ethic and character.

If he can put injuries behind him, he could be a very good player at the next level. He has 24 sacks over the last 3 years despite injuries and had 5.5 this year in 8 games and he has the skills to be a top ten pick, but he always seems to hurt something. He’ll probably be a 2^nd round pick which could actually be good for him, teach him not to be complacent as so many defensive lineman who sign big deals become.

9. Alex Carrington (Arkansas State) 70

1/27/10: He has carried his late season momentum into his Senior Bowl week and has stepped up as one of the most dominant defensive line prospects at the Senior Bowl, which is a bit of a surprise because he’s not used to top notch competition. He also has excellent size and athleticism.

A very strong prospect of a small school kid with 10 sacks in 2008 at 6-5 285, but he struggled some in 2009. He did end up with 9 sacks, but 6 of then were in his last 3 games, including an amazing 4 sack showing in the season finale. He is still a nice mid round prospect with similar measurables to Tyson Jackson who went #3 overall last year. He can play 4-3 left end and 3-4 defensive end and maybe some 4-3 defensive tackle in nickel packages, but his best fit is as a 3-4 defensive end where I think he’s a future starter. The level of competition is an issue for him though.

10. Corey Wootton (Northwestern) 70

A very fluid athlete with good size at 6-7 280 and can play both 4-3 left end and 3-4 defensive end. After 10 sacks last season, he could have been a 2^nd round pick, but he had knee surgery this offseason and only bounced back with 3.5 sacks this season, so I don’t think he’s much but upside here, but there’s definitely upside for him if he can put his injuries behind him. He could have gone in the 1^st round with a strong season this season, but I think he’s a 3^rd round pick at best right now, but someone could snatch him up in the 2^nd round if they love his upside and are convinced his knee is fine.

11. Austin Lane (Murray State) 66

1/27/10: First he showed up looking great at his weigh in, weighing in at 265 pounds at 6-6, adding a necessary 8-10 pounds to his frame, and to back that up, he’s looked great ob the field in practice showing that this small school kid can hang with the big boys. He has the athleticism to play rush linebacker in addition to defensive end.

The level of competition is an issue for him, but he certainly looks the part of an NFL pass rusher. He has a good refined repertoire of passing moves, but he lacks elite size and doesn’t have very fluid hips. It’ll be interesting to see whether or not he projects as a rush linebacker at the next level because he’s a little small for the trenches in the NFL.  

12. Willie Young (NC State) 66

He had eight sacks this season and has good long arms and athleticism, but at his size, 250 pounds, he’s probably only a nickel rusher in 4-3 systems, so he’ll have to try to convert to rush linebacker and I’m not yet convinced he can. He’s poor against the run, even for his size and his 40 time (4.68-4.72) isn’t going to blow anyone out of the water. 

13. CJ Wilson (East Carolina) 63                            

3/1/10: A very underrated left end prospect, but a 4.75 40 at 290 will get him noticed, as will 32 reps on the bench press. He could be looking at the 4^th round after some slow defensive end times today.

A very athletic left end, with 15 sacks over the last two years and the size to play on the line in both a 4-3 and a 3-4 scheme. He’s a bit of a project, but I love his upside with his athleticism and I think he can be a starting left end in the NFL in a few years.

14. Koa Misi (Utah) 63

1/27/10: Believe it or not, Misi played defensive end at Utah. You wouldn’t know it from looking at him play linebacker this week in Mobile. He has shown great fluidity in pass coverage and looked like a natural linebacker. He’s also making a lot of nice hits. That definitely helps his stock as he doesn’t have the size to play in the trenches in the NFL.

He’s an undersized defensive end with a strong motor to make up for it, but he looked like a natural outside linebacker playing that position in the Senior Bowl. He’s a risk because he has to play rush linebacker, a position he didn’t play in college, but I love his motor and I think he could be a solid rush linebacker in the future.

15. Daniel Te’o-Nesheim (Washington) 58

An unknown pass rusher with an unpronounceable name, who has quietly put up 18 sacks over the last 2 years against some good Pac 10 competition. He was a little small before the combine, but bulked up and still managed to shave some time off of his projected time. The elite natural athleticism is not there, but he has the work ethic and the on the field motor to make up for it. He should have a future in the NFL as either a defensive end or a rush linebacker.

16. Lindsey Witten (Connecticut) 56

Started off 2009, with a bang, but ended quietly. He lacks the size to be an every down trench rusher at the next level and the tape is really inconsistent on him. There is some upside here, but not a ton.

17. Brandon Lang (Troy) 55

He undersized pass rusher who ran in the 4.9s at the Combine so he may have trouble getting drafted in the first 4 rounds as a future starting type defensive end. He could be a decent nickel rusher in the future, because his 17.5 sacks in the last 2 years are fairly impressive, but the lack of speed and weaker competition makes that less likely. I think it’s safe to say that he won’t be as good as Troy’s last elite pass rusher, DeMarcus Ware.

18. Alex Daniels (Cincinnati) 54

He has the measurables you look for out of a future starting end, sub 4.7 speed, 4.55, and over 260 pounds, 265, but that 40 time was at his Pro Day and it just seemed like everyone was running faster than usual at Cincinnati’s Pro Day that day. He also has one year wonder written all over him. Before this year, in which he had 8 sacks, he only had 1 in his college career. He may even be a one game wonder. 4 of his 8 sacks this year came in one game. He’s not strong against the run, so if he’s not an elite pass rusher, I don’t think he’ll be very valuable in the NFL, though some teams are going to take a chance on him in the 6^th as they look for valuable defensive end depth.

19. Brandon Sharpe (Texas Tech) 53

20. Antonio Coleman (Auburn) 53

21. George Selvie (South Florida) 52

22. Cameron Sheffield (Troy) 52

23. Kevin Basped (Nevada) 47

24. John Fletcher (Wyoming) 46

25. Chris McCoy (Middle Tennessee State) 45

26. Jeffery Fitzgerald (Kansas State) 42

27. Greg Middleton (Indiana) 42                        

28. George Johnson (Rutgers) 41

 

Hello, my name is Dean Holden, and I have been writing Detroit Lions for about two years, and a fan for about 20. On January 8, 2000, when the Lions were last in the playoffs, I was 13, and I missed the game. I don’t remember why. I had no idea I would be waiting this long to get another chance, but I’m primed and ready for it to happen, and soon. I would like to make a career out of writing about the Lions, but even if I don’t, I can’t see myself ever stopping. I love this team, and it’s going to take more than a decade-long playoff drought or winless season to shake me. It’s going to make the turnaround that much sweeter.

When I’m not watching the Lions (or another Detroit sports team), I’m an avid video gamer. I tend to play a little of everything, but I’m a particularly big fan of RPGs and tactical strategy games. I like my video games to require as much brainpower as reaction time, just like a good QB.

Feel free to contact me on Twitter and my other blog sites!

Twitter: Dean_Holden

Blog: http://www.nfltouchdown.com/category/detroitlions/

OR

http://bleacherreport.com/users/64307-dean-holden

This deal is so stupid. DeAngelo Williams is 28 and has never had more than 273 carries in a season and only twice gone above 144 carries in his 5 year career. This is a 5 year deal that takes him until he’s 33. If he can’t stay healthy now, how is he going to stay healthy at age 33? Given that fact, him getting 43 million over 5 years with 21 million of that guaranteed is ridiculous. Besides, running backs are fairly interchangeable and the Panthers already have two solid backs in Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson. This is such a stupid move. In the past 2 days, the Panthers have committed 127 million (57 million guaranteed) to a defensive end with only one year of starting experience, a 28 year old running back who can’t stay healthy, and a kicker. And people wonder why they went 2-14 last year.

I realize the Panthers went 2-14 last year and have to overspend to sign guys, but overspending because it’s the only way to sign guys is not how you build a playoff team. That’s how you build the Oakland Raiders or the Washington Redskins. The good teams, the Patriots, the Colts, the Saints, the Packers, never spend big money unless the player is worth it. In the Panthers case with Williams, he wasn’t worth it.

Grade: F

 

 

Safety

Clemson

6-0 217

Draft Board Overall Prospect Rank: #72

Draft Board Overall Safety Rank: #3

Rating: 74 (Early 3rd)

40 time: 4.64

2/20/11: If he had come out in 2009, McDaniel probably would have been a first round pick. He had good triangle numbers and was coming off a season in which he had 8 picks, one of which was a pick six. The name Darren Sharper was being thrown around as a comparison. However, he returned for his senior year and now could very well fall into the 3^rd round. His interception total was cut in half, and, even worse, he really struggled in coverage.

McDaniel may have the 12 picks in 2 years, but his strength is the run, not the pass. He may pick off a good amount of passes, but he doesn’t match up one-on-one well or patrol a zone well. He’s often out of position. He’s really stiff in his backpedal. He’s got good hands and a good nose for the football and could be a ballhawk center fielder type strong safety at the next level, but he’s not a good cover safety or a free safety.

He is good against the run. He likes the big hits and occasionally forgets to wrap up, but overall he is stronger against the run than against the pass. He does need to become more consistent. His motor is really inconsistent and he’ll become invisible for stretches of time, but overall he’s better against the run than against the pass.

The upside is there, but he does need to be coached up. I think he’ll end up going in the 3^rd round, but he does have first round upside. He’s got good triangle numbers at 6-0, 6-1 in the 210s with a 4.4 40 and he does have that ballhawk capability.

NFL Comparison: William Moore

 

 

 

Dawan Landry is a hell of a run stopper with 200 tackles combined in the last 2 years as a strong safety for the Baltimore Ravens. He was better in coverage last year, but in 2009, he was one of the worst safeties in coverage in the league. Plus, he’s spent his entire career next to Ed Reed and with a great front 7 in front of him. He could easily be the product of a great supporting cast. The Jaguars needed safety help and Landry is definitely better than anything they had there last year, but giving him 5 years 27.5 million with 10.5 million of that guaranteed might not look like a smart move in a few years if Landry is just an average safety or worse in the league.

Grade: C

 

 

Look I understand this team has to spend a lot of money to get to the salary floor, but how about doing that on good players? This team hasn’t made a single outside move in free agency this year, yet they resign a marginal linebacker in Quincy Black for 29 million over 5 years and then give a one dimensional GUARD who is coming off a season ending injury a 7 year deal worth 53 million dollars with 19 million guaranteed. Joseph is a great run blocker, but he struggles in pass protection. There is no way this guy deserved to get just 4 million dollars less than Jahri Evans, the best guard in the league, did last offseason. Unbelievable. This might be the single worst signing this offseason.

Grade: F

 

 

Running Back

Virginia Tech

5-10 206

Draft board overall prospect rank: #57

Draft board overall running back rank: #4

Overall rating: 75 (2nd/3^rd round)

40 time: 4.40

Games watched: Miami/Virginia Tech, VT/North Carolina, Michigan/Virginia Tech

Positives

·         Amazing athleticism (4.40 40, 41 vertical, 11-0 broad jump)

·         Incredibly productive 2011 season (1709 yards and 9 touchdowns on 290 carries)

·         Consistent with 10/14 games going over 100+

·         Tough, powerful runner

·         Deadly in the open field

·         Fast and quick

·         Breaks a lot of tackles

·         Makes guys miss

·         Fights for every last yard

·         Explosive with excellent burst

·         Shifty with great vision

·         Excellent cutting ability

·         Good pad level

·         Solid pass catcher (22 catches)

·         Relatively little tread on his tires (462 carries)

·         Adds value as a kick returner, scored twice in 2010

Negatives

·         Undersized (5-10 206)

·         Playing style at his size can lead to a lot of injuries at the next level

·         Needs to get more North and South – dances too much sometimes

·         7 fumbles last season

·         Only a one year starter

·         A one year wonder who came out of nowhere this season

·         Needs to become a better pass blocker to stay on 3^rd downs in the NFL

·         Wore down as the season progressed (under 100 yards in 3 of last 4 games)

·         Virginia Tech didn’t face a tough schedule in 2011

·         Struggled some against better defenses (Clemson, Michigan)

·         Low positional value

NFL Comparison: Ahmad Bradshaw

David Wilson burst onto the scene this season. Following a strong line of Virginia Tech running backs, Wilson rushed for 1709 yards and 9 touchdowns on 290 carries this season as a junior, his only season as a starter. After being stuck behind Darren Evans and Ryan Williams for two years, Wilson broke out this season and went from being a potential late round pick to a likely 2^nd round pick in this month’s NFL Draft.

Wilson is incredibly tough to tackle with his combination of speed, explosiveness, and toughness. He breaks a ton of tackles on tape and fights for every yard. On the flip side, however, he dances too much in the open field and this often leads to plays that go for a loss when he should have at least gotten the ball back to the line of scrimmage or a gain of a couple. His physical running style at his smaller size (5-10 206) could lead to an injury riddled career in the NFL.

He is very similar to Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw is a smaller back with a similar running style and he’s had a fairly injury riddled career in the NFL, though he is definitely one of the league’s better backs when healthy, including a 1235 yard season in 2010. He and Bradshaw also share another problem, fumbling. In his only season as a starter, Wilson fumbled 7 times, significantly more than any of the other top running back prospects.

Bradshaw fumbled 7 times in 2010, but corrected the problem in the offseason, not fumbling once in 2011. Likewise, Wilson can also learn to correct this problem with coaching. Bradshaw is also a solid pass catcher, who struggles with pass protection. To earn 3^rd down duties early in his career, Wilson will have to become a much better pass protector.

I think Wilson is slightly overrated as a prospect. He only really has one good season and I think he was a bit overrated this year. Yes, he rushed for 1709 yards and 9 scores on 290 carries, but he did it against a weaker schedule (the same one that kept Virginia Tech out of the national title discussion, even when they had 1 loss). He struggled down the stretch and against tougher competition like Clemson and Michigan, both of whom held him under 4 yards per carry and 100 yards total.

I’m also not sure his running style and size will let him be a feature back at the next level like I think Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, and Chris Polk (all of whom are rated higher than him on my board) can be. There’s also the issue of his position, one that is becoming devalued in the NFL. He’ll probably go in the 2^nd round, but I have a high 3^rd round grade on him. He’d be best as part of a one-two punch like Bradshaw with Brandon Jacobs in New York.

Interested teams in the 2^nd round will include St. Louis (to pair with Steven Jackson as he ages), Cleveland (to pair with Montario Hardesty, if healthy), New York Jets (to pair with Shonn Greene, his best fit in my opinion), San Diego (to pair with Ryan Matthews) Cincinnati (to pair with BenJarvus Green Ellis and Bernard Scott), Detroit (with Jahvid Best, Mikel Leshoure, and Kevin Smith all being question marks) and Denver (to pair with Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno if healthy). He won’t get past Denver and should go in the top half of the 2^nd round as the 3^rd back off the board behind Richardson and Martin and likely before Lamar Miller. 

The Saints already signed Curtis Lofton this offseason, but could have used another linebacker because Martez Wilson is an unproven 2011 3^rd round pick, Chris Chamberlain is a mediocre starter, and Jonathan Vilma is an aging, declining player who could be suspended for a large portion of next season and/or cut. Hawthorne was a great value at 19 million over 5 years with just 4.5 million guaranteed (3.8 signing bonus and 700K first year salary).

I’m just wondering how the Saints are managing to fit all these deals under the cap. They were backed up against the cap, but they’ve still managed to resign Marques Colston, sign Ben Grubbs to replace Carl Nicks, and add 3 starters (Brodrick Bunkley, Curtis Lofton, and David Hawthorne) to their front 7, where they really needed help. I know they won’t have Sean Payton, but as long as they have Drew Brees, they should once again be the favorites in the NFC South against after 13 wins last season.

Grade: A

 

The Jets needed to give Harris a long term worth less per year than the franchise tender to save them cap space, just like the Raiders did with Kamerion Wimbley, but unlike Wimbley, Harris was kind of worth this. Did they overpay a little bit giving him 36 million over 4 years with 29.5 million in guarantees, but Harris is one of the best linebackers in the league so it wasn’t a huge overpay.

Grade: B