3-4 Defensive End/Defensive End
Northwestern
6-6 272
40 time: 4.92
Draft board overall prospect rank: #99
Draft board 3-4 defensive end rank: #10
Overall rating: 70*
4/7/10: Corey Wootton is starting to look like a bit of a one year wonder. His 10 sacks in 2008 were impressive in the Big 10. He would have been a 2nd round if he had come out last year, but he really struggled this year after a “minor” knee surgery. He never looked right this year. He lacked explosiveness, he lacked drive, and he only had 4 sacks. His athleticism is very strong he offers good scheme versatility playing everything from a 3-4 end to a 4-3 end to, possibly, a 4-3 under tackle. He has long arms and he’s above average against the run, though that could be expected at his size. I think he’s best off as a 3-4 end where he can hold down the line against the run and also provide a bit of a pass rush, rather than a 4-3 end where he would provide below average pass rush, but also provide something against the run. However, for a 3-4 end, he’s a bit undersized and would need to bulk up. The 3 man line in the NFL requires brute strength rather than just strong run stopper. He’ll need to frustrate blockers and tie up multiple blockers, which is not something he’ll do well. He has a bunch of durability concerns and has below average speed. He’s not very fluid and doesn’t use his long arms quite to their full potential, especially when it comes to breaking up passes. He’ll come off in the first 3 rounds, but he won’t be a star as some people are calling him.
NFL Comparison: Tyler Brayton
*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here
Corey Williams Lions
Deal for Browns:
With 4 sacks last year at 320 pounds, Williams was actually one of the Browns best defensive players (not saying much). They could have gotten a lot more value for him than they did.
Grade: C
Deal for Lions:
Brilliant. Corey Williams only had 4.5 sacks over the last 2 years in Cleveland’s 3-4, but he had 7 sacks (at 320 pounds) in each of his last two years in a 4-3. He’s a perfect fit for Detroit’s scheme next to Sammie Lee Hill and he allows the Lions to trade down from the 2nd pick because they no longer need Ndamukong Suh. They could get a lot more value out of that pick if they traded it and Suh is the type of player that teams will trade up into the top 3 to get. You know any team picking from 4-9 (with the exception of Kansas City because their loaded at the position and Oakland because their GM is “dead”) would love to move up into that 2nd spot to get Suh and Detroit could get themselves at least a 2010 and a 2011 2nd for moving down just a few spots.
Grade: A
Corey Liuget Scout
Defensive Tackle/3-4 Defensive End
Illinois
6-2 298
Draft board overall prospect rank: #60
Draft board overall defensive tackle rank: #11
Overall rating: 76 (late 2nd)
40 time: 4.95
3/16/11: Corey Liuget is a fairly high ranked defensive tackle and could go as high as #14 to St. Louis even in a strong defensive tackle class. However, I say he’s overrated. He’s purely a one gap penetrator and, while some teams may consider him as a 3-4 end, I don’t think he can play there. He’s got solid measurable, but doesn’t stand out with his measurables or on tape. He didn’t produce much at Illinois. He was inconsistent and has an inconsistent motor and is rarely dominant.
He plays with poor leverage and his handwork needs work. He’s good against the run and he’s got a good bull rush, but he doesn’t have a good pass rushing repertoire. I don’t think he’s athletic enough or good enough of a pass rusher to play in a 3-4 as an end. He’s a sturdy strong player, but he has work ethic issues and motor issues.
NFL Comparison: Brodrick Bunkley
Conte Cuttino
Today at The Football Fan Spot we have Stony Brook running back and NFL Draft prospect Conte Cuttino. Conte has been working hard in this draft preseason trying to get his name out there and get himself drafted. He is Stony Brook’s all time leading rusher with 3067 career yards and also added 245 yards through the air as well as 20 rushing touchdowns. He was part of two Pro Days, Fordham’s and U Albany’s, showing very good measurables with 40 times of 4.45 and 4.53 at 5-10 200, as well as a 40.5 inch vertical leap and a 10 foot 7 inch broad jump. He is currently regarded as a late round prospect. Today, he is here to tell us about his game and his Pre-Draft experience.
The Football Fan Spot: First, a little bit of background stuff, when did you start playing football? Who did were some of your favorite players to watch as a kid? Favorite team to watch? When did you first realize that you had a really good shot at the NFL?
Conte Cuttino: I started playing when I was 7 years old. My favorite players to watch were Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders and O.J. Simpson. I don’t really have a favorite team, I just like to watch a good game. I have always believed I was capable of making it to the NFL, even as a kid. But it really set in when I was a junior and senior in high school – football came easy for me.
TFFS: You played last year in Division I-AA. How do you think playing in Division I-AA compares to playing in Division I? Would you say it’s a bit of a disadvantage coming from a smaller school background as you try to transition to the NFL?
CC: The major disadvantage comes now, during the draft process, because of the lack of exposure during my college career and because I was not invited to the NFL Combine. My college games were not nationally televised, and ESPN is not tracking my draft process. I have to push hard to get my name into the draft atmosphere, and there is always a comment made about the competition I played against coming from a small school. There is not enough credit given to the talent of D I-AA football players. If you compare my pro day numbers to that of the running backs at the NFL Combine, I rank amongst the top 5%. That should speak for itself in regards to the stereotype of D-IAA competition.
TFFS: Its been roughly 3 months since the end of your season. Do you think are an improved player since the end of the season and if so, in what way?
CC: I have been training at Parisi Speed School since the beginning of January. My trainers have definitely helped to improve my speed and change of direction, as well as my catching abilities, all of which is important for me to showcase at my pro day and team workouts.
TFFS: Which, if any, NFL teams have contacted you up to this point? Which teams sent scouts to your Pro Days?
CC: So far the Jets and Giants have been in contact with me. Many teams’ scouts were at the Fordham Pro day, including the Bengals, Bills, Browns, Chargers, Colts, Eagles, Giants, Jets, Packers, Raiders, Saints, Vikings and Dolphins.
TFFS: I have always found it very interesting to ask prospects what round they believe they will be drafted in, so, honestly, putting aside where you think you should be drafted, what draft range do you think you will be drafted in?
CC: I believe I am a hybrid type of back that is useful in many positions, so that increases my value. I would say I am a late 5th to 7th round pick.
TFFS: A lot of guys, especially from small school backgrounds go undrafted, sign with a team, make the practice squad, and then bounce around from practice squad to practice squad, maybe get a job as a 4th running back on a roster somewhere and then back down to the practice squad. I’m not saying that will be your fate and I certainly hope for the best for you, but if that were the case, how long of that could you take? At what point would you say, I know I’m a good running back, but this just isn’t working out for me, and then go down another career path?
CC: I’m a player that loves the game so, God forbid that happens, I’ll make the best of my opportunity and keep fighting, because the dream is never over until you stop trying.
TFFS: Who do you compare yourself most to in the NFL? Is there anyone you model your game after?
CC: I can compare myself to a Westbrook type of player, who can run on the inside and outside and is also a threat in the pass game with screens and in the slot position. I really have no one specific person that I model my game after. I try to take a little piece from all the great running backs and formulate their moves into a style of my own.
TFFS: You’re New York born and raised, what would it mean to you to be drafted by a hometown team like the Giants or Jets?
CC: It would be the greatest feeling in the world to live out my dream and be able to play in front of my family and friends.
TFFS: One of the biggest differences I see between college running backs who don’t make it as every down backs and those who do is pass catching and pass blocking. How comfortable are you running routes out of the backfield and picking up blitzes?
CC: I did a lot of that during my college career, so I am completely comfortable with running routes and blocking. Even though there is a big difference in size and speed from college to the pro’s, I’m sure I will be able to make that adjustment and be the productive back a team needs me to be.
TFFS: Give me a little bit of a self scouting report, what do you say you could contribute most to an NFL team? What is your biggest weakness or thing you need to work on most?
CC: I am a very elusive, change of pace, type of back. I can make the first guy miss and am able to see the hole and hit it fast. I can catch the ball out the back field very well, and can be a weapon in the screen game. I also have experience in kick return and punt return. My weakness would be my size for the blocking game but I can still be effective in it.
TFFS: Shifting from you to your team, what is one thing about Stony Brook football you think the common fan should know?
CC: Stony Brook Football has very talented athletes that have the talent to play on Sundays. In the near future, Stony Brook will be a place where NFL players get drafted from often.
TFFS: Any plans for draft day?
CC: No plans, just relaxing and not letting the day get the best of me. Definitely a lot of praying with the family, and eyes and ears tuned into the TV.
TFFS: One final question, if an NFL GM were standing right in front of you and asked you, why should we draft you, what would you say to him?
CC: I am a great character player. Growing up in a household with correction officers for parents, I was raised with great discipline and respect. I am a versatile back and can be used in multiple ways within your offense. I can also return kickoffs and punts while still being a threat in the pass game. You can always count on me to represent your team and the league in a respectful manor.
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Conference Semis Picks
Last week overall: 2-2
Last week ATS: 3-1 (+980/+64%)
Overall picks: 170-90 (.654)
ATS Picks: 136-113-7 (+$3660)
Lock picks: 12-5
Upset picks: 34-35 (+1648)
Wild Card Round Recap: I nailed my 3 highest picks and dropped my lowest (Colts for 2 units), earning me $980 (or 64%) over the course of just 4 games. I went 2-2 straight up (also had the Colts winning + didn’t think the Seahawks could actually win), but nailed my upset pick for another $110 (Packers over Eagles), earning me $1090 in the course of 4 games. I’d say that’s a pretty successful weekend. Hope I can keep it up.
Random college football notes: I enjoy bashing on-air commentators so I definitely got a kick out of Brent Musburger’s commentary of the “National Championship” of college football last night. Here were some of the moments.
Referred to the Arizona Cardinals as the Phoenix Cardinals, which they haven’t been since 1993. This was likely an honest mistake, but I find it hilarious considering Brent Musburger is old as shit. There’s a very good chance he still thinks it’s 1993.
Prematurely called a touchdown. This wouldn’t be so bad it the guy was even close to the end zone. Musburger started his call at about the 8 yard line and the caller carrier was stopped at the 3. Also, this wasn’t the first time Musburger prematurely ejaculated on a call. He does this all the time. Here’s the video, so you know what I’m talking about.
Before the game deciding field goal, he said this was for all the Tostitos (Tostitos Bowl). Many bash him for this. I will applaud him for this. He accurately pointed out what this meaningless “championship” game was for. Tositos. The point is college football needs a playoff system. How can Auburn call themselves National Champions when there was another undefeated team (TCU)? Maybe Auburn would have crushed TCU. Key word is maybe. We don’t know. Anyway, here’s the Tostitos video.
Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Baltimore Ravens 16
Spread: Pittsburgh -3.5
Pick against spread: Baltimore 3 units (-330)
Like every game this week, this game is a rematch. Joe Flacco has never beaten Ben Roethlisberger. In Flacco’s career, he has played 7 games against the Steelers (1 in the playoffs). He is 0-5 against Big Ben and 2-0 against all other Steelers starting quarterbacks (Dennis Dixon, Charlie Batch). However, it’s not like he’s getting blown out. In those 5 losses, 3 were by 3 points, 1 was by 4, and one was by 9.
Two situations work for the Ravens in this game. One, they are coming off of a road playoff win. Teams coming off a road playoff win in round 1 are 7-2 ATS since 2005. The Steelers are coming off of a bye, a situation teams are 7-13 ATS in since 2005.
I think Joe Flacco can cover this line here, as it is more than a field goal. The Steelers never blow out the Ravens in the Joe Flacco era and they have two key situations working against them. However, I pick Big Ben to win straight up and continue his dominance, though it’s a close matchup. I think this is Joe Flacco’s best chance to beat Big Ben yet after how close he game late in the regular season. I’m taking the points.
Green Bay Packers 31 Atlanta Falcons 21 Upset Pick (+120)
Spread: Atlanta -2.5
Pick against spread: Green Bay 4 units (+400)
The Packers may have lost by 3 in Atlanta earlier this season, and teams are 8-17 straight up in a same site non-divisional rematch against a team they lost to earlier in the season since 2002, but things have changed since. One, the Packers can now run the ball. James Starks rushed for 123 yards on 23 carries against an average Eagles run defense last week. That’s a huge difference from the 22 yards on 10 carries lead back Brandon Jackson rushed for week 12.
The Packers are also more disciplined. The reason they lost week 12 despite outgaining the Falcons by 124 yards was 8 penalties. Penalties were a huge issue for this team earlier this year, but they’ve calmed down in recent weeks with 11 in their past 3 games.
Finally, the Falcons have lost at home. The Saints came in week 16 and beat this team for the 2nd time in Matt Ryan’s career at home. Teams aren’t going to be afraid to go into Atlanta and play the Falcons anymore. In fact, in Matt Ryan’s career, he’s only beaten 3 playoff teams at home, the Panthers, the Ravens (short travel week), and these Packers. I think the Packers can right things this week.
Going back to the trend I mentioned earlier, teams coming off a road playoff win are 7-2 ATS since 2005, while teams coming off byes are 7-13 ATS. Aaron Rodgers is also 8-4 ATS as an underdog.
Even if the Falcons do win, it will be a close game. The Packers haven’t lost by more than 4 all season (and no more by three in games that Rodgers has started and finished), while the Falcons’ 3 wins against playoff teams this season (excluding Seattle) were all decided on the final possession. I know I’m only getting 2.5 points here, but playoff games are normally close so if the Falcons win, this game could definitely be that close.
Speaking of their only 3 wins against playoff teams being decided on the final possession, that shows something. They haven’t exactly dominated playoff teams this year. They are 4-3 straight up, but 3 of those wins were on the final possession and the other was against Seattle.
Seattle Seahawks 21 Chicago Bears 19 Upset Pick (+375)
Spread: Chicago -10
Pick against spread: Seattle 5 units (-550)
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. I don’t trust this Bears team to win 3 straight games and win a Super Bowl. They’ve had too many games where they’ve just played terribly this season. I certainly don’t trust them to cover a huge spread, especially against a team that beat them in the same location earlier this season. Teams that win a non-divisional game are 17-8 straight up in a same location rematch since 2002 (See: Packers over Eagles last week). The Seahawks certainly qualify for that.
The Bears have had trouble winning games by double digits this year. Of their 11 wins, only 4 were by double digits, Carolina, Minnesota, Tyler Thigpen’s Miami Dolphins, and Joe Webb’s homeless Minnesota Vikings. The Seahawks may be the worst team ever in the playoffs, but they’re better than those 4 teams.
Now let’s look at Jay Cutler. Jay Cutler in his career as a favorite of 6+ is 1-8 ATS and 0-3 ATS as a favorite of 9+. Cutler is in his first playoff start. Quarterbacks favored in their first playoff start are 2-12 ATS since 2003. Quarterbacks at home in their first playoff start are 1-13 ATS since 2003. Quarterbacks favored at home in their first playoff start are 1-10 ATS since 2003. It hurts Cutler even more that the guy playing QB for the other side is extremely experienced and has made a Super Bowl. Oh, and I didn’t trust Cutler to cover a double digit spread BEFORE I knew that.
The Bears might also be rusty off of a bye week. As I’ve said before, teams with a first round bye are 7-13 ATS the next week since 2005. This could be especially disastrous for this team because so much of their offense relies on good timing. Last time they were coming off a bye, they almost lost to the then winless Bills.
Teams coming who are coming off of a bye and who lost week 17 are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 instances. This makes sense. That means it’s been at least three weeks since this team won a game. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are coming off a straight up win as an underdog and are still big underdogs (7+). This is a lucrative betting angle in the regular season, but in the playoffs it’s even better. Teams in that situation are 6-1 ATS since 2002.
Overall, these are the reasons why I like the Seahawks to cover. I don’t trust Jay Cutler as a rule. Jay Cutler struggles as a large favorite. Jay Cutler is in his playoff debut and will be a home favorite. That’s a lot of pressure, especially for Cutler. The Bears are coming off of a bye and haven’t won a game in 3 calendar weeks. This especially hurts because of how much their offense relies on timing. The Packers disrupted their timing week 17 and the bye week probably didn’t help. The Bears haven’t beaten any average or better teams by 10+ all year. The Bears lost to Seattle earlier this year in Chicago. Enough reasons for you? 5 units on the underdogs. In fact screw it, give me the money line (+375) as well. Seattle 21 Chicago 19.
An interesting side note. Seattle could win this game. If they do and the Packers win as well, the Seahawks will face in Packers IN QWEST next week. Seattle making the Super Bowl doesn’t sound farfetched. All of a sudden those 20/1 odds that Seahawks wins the NFC look pretty good. Putting down $100 to win $2000 would be a smart move. Quote me on that. That’s adding to my winnings if it happens and subtracting if it doesn’t. Hell, even betting $10 to win $200. There’s a lot stupider things you could do with $10 (like buying a ticket to the movie Tron).
New England Patriots 37 New York Jets 21
Spread: New England -9
Pick against spread: New England 2 units (-220)
The Patriots won this one by 42 in Foxboro in the regular season and Tom Brady is even better in the playoffs, so the Pats should cover with ease right? Well, while Brady is a better winner in the playoffs (still 14-4 career even after an ugly loss to the Ravens last year), he covers at less than a 50% rate (8-10). The Jets also cover well on the road (12-7) and as underdogs (9-5) in the Rex Ryan era.
That being said, I don’t know how much of a chance I give the Jets defense to stop the Pats’ offense. No one has held them under 30 since November 7th, over 2 calendar months and 8 games ago. The Jets defense doesn’t match up with the Pats’ offense well at all. Pay no attention to the Jets holding the Pats to 14 week 2. That was a completely different offense (heave risky deep balls to an aging, lethargic, well covered Randy Moss all game).
The Pats have become a short throw, screen and YAC offense since then. Tom Brady’s favorite target has become the open one rather than Moss, which nullifies the effectiveness of Darrelle Revis and (if he decides to show up this week) Antonio Cromartie. The Jets also like to blitz, which doesn’t do you any good against the Pats amazing offensive line and Brady’s uncanny ability to get the ball out fast to the open receiver short in space against the blitz. The Pats will score 30+ again.
In order to cover if the Pats score exactly 30, the Jets will need 21. However, if the Pats score 34+ as they’ve done in 6 of their last 8, the Jets will need 25+. I don’t know if I trust Mark Sanchez to get those points.
However, the situations work against the Pats. The Jets are coming off a road win, while the Pats are coming off of a bye. Also remember Brady’s ATS record in the playoffs isn’t great. I’m picking the Pats here for 2 reasons, even though the situations say otherwise.
Teams normally don’t do well after a bye. The Pats do. In the Brady/BB era, they’ve had a first round bye 4 times. In 2001, they won by 3 following the bye. In 2003, they won by 3. In 2004, they won by 18. In 2007, they won by 11. This team is just so good when they have an extra week to prepare.
Here’s a stat for you. In the Brady/BB era, they are 22-4 straight up in games in which they got an extra week or more to prepare (off of a first round bye, off of a regular season bye, season opener, Super Bowl). This is excluding 2008, when Brady was hurt, though it’s worth noting they went 2-0 in this situation in 2008 even without Brady. It’s also worth noting they’ve won 15 of their last 16 in this situation, with that one loss coming in Super Bowl 42.
My second reason is that Rex Ryan and Antonio Cromatie both called out Tom Brady this week and called him overrated and an “asshole”. Brady’s going to be pissed and when he’s pissed, he normally destroys teams.
Conference Finals Picks
Last week overall: 2-2
Last week ATS: 1-3 (-700/+45%)
Overall picks: 172-92 (.652)
ATS Picks: 136-113-7 (+$2960)
Lock picks: 12-5
Upset picks: 35-36 (+1668)
Other: -100 (Seahawks 20:1 to win NFC)
Conference Semifinals Recap: Remember last week how I made 1090 in 4 games, nailing a 5 unit, a 4 unit, a 3 unit, dropping a 2 unit and nailing my +110 upset? Well this week I gave a lot of it back. In total I lost $780. I lost $700 or 45% on my ATS picks, won $20 going 1-1 on 2 upsets pick, and lost my longshot 20:1 Seahawks to win NFC bet.
I nailed a 4 unit (GB +2 over ATL), but dropped a 2 unit (NE -9 over NYJ), a 3 unit (BAL +3.5 over PIT) and barely dropped my 5 unit (SEA +10 over CHI), but Pete Carroll decided not to give his team the best chance to win by going for two down 12 late. I got GB +120 over ATL but not SEA +375 over CHI. Overall, I’m still in the positive for the playoffs and I’m still up close to 3K on the year, but this week did hurt.
Random Eric Mangini Notes: How awkward is Eric Mangini on ESPN? Who thought this was a good idea? Mangini was one of the most awkward coaches in the league on the sideline. Who thought he’d make a good ESPN commentator. They made the same mistake with Jon Gruden even though he looks like the type of creep you’d see staring in your window late at night. I can’t help wondering if this is ESPN’s way of making it up to the Mangina after this incident.
Also, I’m mad Eric Mangini was telling everyone how to beat the Patriots on national television last week. I know what you’re thinking, it’s the Mangina, he’s harmless. Well, for one thing, he was our defensive coordinator for a season and defensive backs coach for 4 under BB. He knows the organization well.
Second of all, he was the man responsible for “revealing” Spygate. I put revealing in quotation marks because I believe he knew the whole time while he was with the Pats that they were doing that type of thing, but choose not to say anything until right around the time he became Head Coach of the Pats’ divisional rival. But he’s the good guy in this whole thing. Yeah. Right.
Third of all, he gave Brady and the boys a 34-14 bitchslapping in Cleveland earlier this season. Now he’s on TV telling everyone how to beat the Patriots and a week later they lose at home in the playoffs to the Jets, who lost 45-3 last time the two met. Those 4 things can’t be coincidences. Mangini knows our secrets. He has it out for us. He’s effectively beaten us before. And worst part, ESPN was in on this conspiracy the whole time. It’s a conspiracy I tell you!!!
Projected Super Bowl Lines:
Green Bay -4.5 vs. NY Jets
NY Jets -1 vs. Chicago
Pittsburgh -3.5 vs. Chicago
Green Bay -3 vs. Pittsburgh
Green Bay Packers 28 Chicago Bears 13
Spread: Packers -3.5
Pick against spread: Green Bay 3 units (+300)
I had the Packers winning the Super Bowl before the season started. I’ve thought highly of them all year. I know have them winning the whole thing again with my Patriots out of it. Meanwhile, I have said on numerous occasions that I don’t trust the Bears. I don’t trust the Cutler/Martz combination with this line. They’ve had too many ugly performances this year for me to bet constantly heavy on them because you really never know when they’re going to shit the bed.
However, I’m not a fan of this line. The Packers are -3.5 favorites in Chicago. I really feel like Vegas is overrating them after their 27 point win over the Falcons. As good as that was, that was just one game. This line would be about -9 or -9.5 if it were in Green Bay which is ridiculous.
That being said, I’m going with the Packers. I’d feel more confident if this line went back down to 3, because I can this one being decided by a field goal, but I’m not betting against the Packers right now and I haven’t liked betting on the Bears all year.
The Packers matchup well with the Bears. Their pass rush destroyed Cutler last time and if they could have gotten anything going offensively in that week 17 matchup, that would have been a blowout. Now they have Rodgers on top of his game and a new found running game led by James Starks. In their week 3 battle in Chicago, Green Bay only lost by 3 despite committing 18 penalties. That’s pathetic on the Packers part, but even more pathetic that the Bears didn’t destroy them.
Aaron Rodgers is on an otherworldly tear right now. Since week 9, he has completed 73% of his passes for an average of 9.1 per attempt and 22 touchdowns to 2 picks. In the first three playoff games of his career, his stats are eerily similar, 73% completion, 9.2 YPA, 10 touchdowns to 1 pick. He’s finally got a good running game supporting him and this team had the NFC’s highest point differential even without a good running game all season. If you can get this line at -3, I’d say 4 units. Worst that happens in that case is a push.
Pittsburgh Steelers 19 New York Jets 17
Spread: Pittsburgh -3.5
Pick against spread: NY Jets 2 units (-220)
I went back and forth between Pittsburgh and the Jets trying to pick a winner. Here’s the case for the Jets. They beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh earlier this season. As I said last week, teams who win a non-divisional game against a certain team are 17-10 straight up in a same site same season rematch since 2002. That number is 4-2 when the win was on the road (Atlanta/Green Bay did buck this trend last week). They could carry over the momentum from beating the Patriots last week. They looked better than the Steelers did last week. The Steelers only beat the Ravens because the Ravens beat themselves with turnovers and drops. The Steelers are also only 3-4 against playoff teams this season (2-3 when Ben’s the lineup), whereas the Jets are 6-3.
The case for Pittsburgh. They didn’t have Troy Polamalu last time these two met. They almost led a last second drive to win that one anyway. The Jets can’t make it personal like they did with the Colts and Patriots. There’s no revenge factor with Rex Ryan and company seem to thrive on. If anything, that win in Pittsburgh earlier this season could hurt them in this one. Big Ben is the more experienced quarterback with 2 Super Bowl rings already.
I decided to go with Pittsburgh to win. Their case was a little stronger. I do think that win in Pittsburgh hurts the Jets a little and the addition of Troy Polamalu will really help the Steelers confuse Sanchez. However, you saw how close the arguments were. These are two evenly matched teams. They’re also two low scoring, defensive teams so this one will be close.
I think we’re getting a gift getting 3.5 points with the Jets. I’m not going to bet heavily on them as small underdogs because I do like the Steelers to win, but I’m taking the Jets. One trend to take note of, the Jets are coming off a straight up win as 7+ point underdogs and are still underdogs. That’s a lucrative trend in the regular season, but even more so in the playoffs, 6-2 ATS since 2002.
Combine Tuesday 2012
S Justin Bethel UP
Bethel is a bigger defensive back at 6-0 200 and is probably a safety long term, but he showed some good athleticism today. His 40 time of 4.53 wasn’t amazing, but his 10 yard split of 1.56 was very good, as was his 39.5 inch vertical and 10 foot 11 broad jump.
CB Ron Brooks UP
Brooks was kind of buried on the depth chart at LSU (not his fault with Morrris Claiborne and Tyrann Mathieu ahead of him), but he played well in a depth cornerback role and had a great day at The Combine today with one of the faster times, 4.35, as well as a 10 foot broad jump and a 38 inch vertical. He also looked good in the drills. He could be an interesting late round flier.
CB Leonard Johnson DOWN
Small and slow is a bad combination. Johnson isn’t tiny at 5-10 196, but a 4.65 40 does hurt. His draft stock was trending up into the 2nd round after a strong Senior Bowl, but now he could be back into the 3rd round.
CB D’Anton Lynn DOWN
Lynn had the worst 40 time of the bunch with a 4.72 and a poor 1.63 10 yard split. He also had a mere 9 foot 3 broad jump and 31.5 inch vertical. He’s a bigger cornerback at 6-0 204 and Mike Mayock says he’s faster in pads on the field, but for a prospect already in the late rounds, this doesn’t help.
S Sean Richardson UP
Richardson is one of the bigger safeties in the bunch at 6-2 216, but he showed surprising athleticism with a 4.47 40, a 10 foot 8 broad jump, and a 38.5 inch vertical. He looks like a mid to late rounder.
CB Josh Robinson UP
Josh Robinson was the only player this year to run in the 4.2s, running a 4.29, which surprised Mike Mayock. Robinson was a surprise early declare that isn’t on a lot of people’s radars right now, but as more tape of him is watched over time, he’ll prove to be a 2nd or 3rd rounder. This 40 time definitely gives people even more reason to go back and watch the tape. He also led defensive backs with a 11 foot 1 broad jump and added a 38.5 inch vertical as well.
CB Coty Sensabaugh UP
Sensabaugh was another one with surprising speed, running a 4.37. He was also above average in the broad jump with 10 foot 2 and above average in the vertical with 37 inches. I thought he was underrated coming in and he’s moving even further up my board now.
S Harrison Smith UP
In a weak safety class, Harrison Smith seems to be locked into the #2 spot. Mike Mayock loves him and Deion Sanders said that he looked like a cornerback in the drills, despite being one of the bigger defensive backs at 6-2 213. His 40 wasn’t amazing or anything at 4.56, but he dominated the drills. He’s got a lot of good tape and gets an unfair and untrue knock for being unathletic. He’s worth a 2nd rounder and Mayock suggests someone could pull the trigger on him in the late 1st even.
CB Ryan Steed DOWN
Ryan Steed had some positive momentum coming into The Combine after a strong Senior Bowl, but slow and small is not a good combination. At 5-10 195, he ran a 4.69. This won’t kill his stock or anything, but I think it halts the day 2 talk for now.
S Phillip Thomas DOWN
Phillip Thomas was a surprise early declare. He’s got great ball skills, but no true position. The 5-11 198 pounder played safety in college, but is undersized for that position in the pros. He didn’t help himself at The Combine. First he ran in the 4.7s. He fixed that with a 4.59, which is still not great, but the first 4.7 time will raise some eyebrows. His vertical was also only 33 inches.
S Christian Thompson UP
Thompson is a small schooler from South Carolina State, but he ran a nice time with a 4.47 at 6-0 212. He also looked good in the drills. He put himself on the radar today.
Combine Thursday 2012
TE Orson Charles UP
Charles weighed in at 251 instead of the 241 he was listed as at Georgia. 6-2 hurts him, but if he can carry the weight well this week, it could be a sign that he’s added enough bulk to be better as a blocker. Charles is already a rising prospect who Mike Mayock has as his top tight end. He’s going to be one of the first 3 tight ends off the board with Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen (who also had good weigh ins) in the first 2 rounds or so.
TE Ladarius Green UP
After those top 3, Green is an interesting sleeper. Up to 238 from 230, Green might need to add a few pounds to be taken seriously as an “elite” tight end prospect, but this guy looks like a wide receiver out there and at 6-6, he’s also a hell of an end zone threat. He’s going to be a weapon in the seam for some team out there.
TE Nick Provo DOWN
There weren’t a lot of guys who weighed in much smaller than expected, but being 6-3 237 rather than 6-5 250 as he was listed at Syracuse hurts Provo. Provo is a great receiver, but that may be all he is.
OT Matt Kalil UP
Kalil is the consensus #1 offensive tackle prospect despite being listed at 295 at USC, however, that was the case with Tyron Smith last year. Smith was 280 at USC, but put on 30 pounds before draft day and went 9th overall. The man that kept Smith at right tackle, Kalil, has a good chance to go even higher and is as close to a top 3 lock as you can get, especially after weighing in at 6-7 306.
OT Riley Reiff UP
Reiff is another top tier offensive tackle prospect who has added some bulk. Up from 300 at Iowa, Reiff is at 313 now. He should be the 2nd offensive tackle off the board after Kalil and could go anywhere from 6 to 12 in April.
Combine Sunday 2012
QB Kirk Cousins UP
With Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, and Brock Osweiler all declining to throw, Cousins was probably the highest rated quarterback throwing at Indy, along with Nick Foles. Cousins threw very well, better than Foles. Cousins has a good arm, but inconsistency was a big problem of his at Michigan State. However, a good day throwing at The Combine puts him in day 2 consideration.
QB Nick Foles DOWN
With Cousins moving up, Foles moves down. Foles wasn’t bad throwing the football, but Cousins was better. Foles also had the worst 40 time of any quarterback at Indy, running a 5.15. This is evident on the field as he takes a lot of unnecessary sacks.
QB Robert Griffin UP
Griffin didn’t throw, but he didn’t need to. A 4.41 40 definitely helps his draft stock and he also interviewed well. Add in that he measured over 6-2 rather than closer to 6 flat like some predicted and he’s having a great week. He’ll go #2, it’s just a question of which team will trade up for him. The Rams have to be pretty happy as they can now ask for even more for the 2nd overall pick.
RB Dan Herron DOWN
Herron is a pretty boom or bust runner, despite his size (5-10 213), so running a poor 40 time, 4.65 isn’t going to help his stock. He doesn’t run with a ton of power and relies primarily on speed, though he does have better football speed than track speed.
RB Doug Martin UP
Doug Martin has helped himself more than any running back in Indianapolis. Martin showed up bigger at 5-9 223 and proved it was all muscle with 28 reps on the bench press and now he showed some athleticism as well running a 4.47 with a 36 inch vertical and 10 foot broad jump. He also did well in the drills. He could be a high day 2 pick now.
RB Bernard Pierce UP
Pierce is a bigger running back (6-0 198), but showed some great athleticism, running a 4.50 with a 36.5 inch vertical and a 10 foot 3 broad jump. He’s putting himself in consideration for day 2 and looks to be on the day 2/3 borderline right now.
RB Robert Turbin UP
Another athletic bigger back, Turbin is 5-10 222 and matched Martin’s 28 reps, but also ran a 4.44 with a 36 inch vertical and a 10 foot 2 broad jump. Turbin did a good job differentiating himself from the pack of mid round backs and could also be in that day 2/3 borderline right now.
RB Darrell Scott DOWN
Darrell Scott was a surprise early declare and the bigger back (6-0 231) didn’t help himself with a 4.68 40 with a mere 31.5 inch vertical (he didn’t do the broad jump). He also only has 8 ¼ inch hands. He looks like a late rounder who should have stayed in school.
RB Marc Tyler DOWN
Tyler had the worst 40 time of any non-fullback in the running back group with a 4.72. Tyler is a power back, but at 5-11 219, he’s not big enough to be excused from that awful 40 time. A 30.5 inch vertical and 9 foot 2 broad jump don’t help either. Tyler, who was benched last season for USC after suffering yet another injury, might go undrafted.
RB David Wilson UP
David Wilson impressed both on and off the field. He ran a 4.40 at 5-10 206 and jumped out of the building with a 41 inch vertical and an 11 foot broad jump. He also was one of the stars of the drills. Off the field, he interviewed very well and scouts were impressed that he wore a suit to the interviews. I’m not sure how much that counts for, but at least you know he wants this badly.
WR Jarrett Boykin DOWN
Jarrett Boykin had one of the worst 40 times of any receiver with a 4.74, though in his defense, he’s a possession receiver. His 10 yard split of 1.58, 36 inch vertical, and 10 foot 3 broad jump help, but I think it’s a small stock down for him.
WR Greg Childs DOWN
Childs seems to be healthy from a knee injury that sunk his stock and ruined his senior season. He ran a 4.55 with a 36.5 inch vertical and a 10 foot 5 broad jump. The problem was with his hands. He constantly was dropping balls in the drills and looked off balanced the whole day. He remains a late round pick with upside.
WR Michael Floyd UP
Floyd had some questions to answer about his speed and he did so with a 4.47 40. This hardly makes him a burner (football speed is still more important), but it answers some questions and solidifies his stock as the #2 wide receiver in this class.
WR Junior Hemingway UP
Junior Hemingway’s 4.53 doesn’t turn any heads, but his 1.53 10 yard split is nice. He also had the top 3 cone drill time (6.59), the top 20 yard shuttle (3.98), and the #2 60 yard shuttle (11.16) time. At 6-1 225, that’s pretty impressive.
WR Stephen Hill UP
We knew Stephen Hill had special athleticism, but this is insane. The 6-4 215 pounder ran a 4.36 40 with a 1.20 10 yard split, 39.5 vertical leap, and an 11 foot 1 broad jump. Hill was underutilized in Georgia Tech’s weird offense and he may take some time to develop his route running abilities, but if Demaryius Thomas can turn into a promising young receiver, so can the more athletic Stephen Hill. He looks like a high day 2 pick with upside into the late 1st round right now.
WR Alshon Jeffery DOWN
Alshon Jeffery appeared to be in shape when he showed up at 6-3 216, rather than the 240s or 250s like he was rumored to be. However, he declined to run or participate in drills with no explanation. That doesn’t look good at all.
WR AJ Jenkins UP
Jenkins displayed surprising athleticism with a 4.39 40 and a 10 foot 4 broad jump. Jenkins looks like a mid rounder.
WR Marvin Jones UP
Marvin Jones’ stock continues to increase. After a strong Senior Bowl week, Jones ran a good 4.46 40 with a good 1.57 split at 6-2 199. He also has 10 ¼ inch hands and did very well in the catching drills. He’s put himself into day 2 consideration.
WR Dwight Jones DOWN
Jones is rumored to be out of shape at 6-3 230. He didn’t run poorly with a 4.55 and a 1.62 10 yard split, but a 9 foot 1 broad jump and 33 inch vertical aren’t very good. He also was a mess in the drills. He could fall out of the first 3 rounds.
WR Marquis Maze DOWN
Maze is an undersized player at 5-8 186 who wasn’t all that productive at Alabama last year. If he’s going to get drafted, it’s going to be a punt returner, so a 4.51 40 doesn’t look good. He could go undrafted.
WR Kashif Moore UP
Moore is a track star and he proved it with his measurables. Only 5-9 180, but Moore he ran a 4.42 40 with a 43.5 inch vertical and a 10 foot 6 broad jump. He wasn’t that productive at Connecticut, but he could be drafted late as a developmental receiver.
WR Chris Owusu UP
Owusu is a major injury concern after 3 concussions in about a calendar year. One more could end his career. But he could still be drafted late as a developmental guy because of his speed. Owusu ran a 4.36 with a 40.5 inch vertical with a 10 foot 9 broad jump.
WR Eric Page DOWN
Short and slow is never a good combination. A surprise early declare, the 5-9 186 pound Page ran a 4.60 and had a mere 30 inch vertical with a 9 foot 4 broad jump. Page either will get drafted late or not get drafted. In hindsight, he should have returned to Toledo to complete his education.
WR James Rodgers DOWN
Another small, slow player, Rodgers ran a 4.67 at 5-7 184. He’s also in danger of not getting drafted.
WR Mohamed Sanu DOWN
Sanu wasn’t supposed to have blazing speed, but a 4.67 isn’t very good. The 6-2 211 pounder still projects as a 2nd rounder in my book. He reminds me of Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin, two guys who did not have good 40 times, but went on to have great careers. A 36 inch vertical and a 10 foot 6 broad jump are also good, but he’s getting a small stock down here.
WR Tommy Streeter UP
Streeter is raw, but he’s got that combination of size and speed that NFL scouts love. He ran a 4.40 at 6-5 219. He looks like a 2nd rounder now.
WR Nick Toon UP
Toon was rumored to have an injury that would prevent him from working out at The Combine, which would be a concern because he’s got a history of injuries. But he did work out and he did pretty well. He ran a 4.54 at 6-2 215 and had a 37.5 inch vertical.
WR Kendall Wright DOWN
Wright is a speedy receiver, so a 4.62 is both surprising and disappointing. However, anyone who has watched him on tape knows his football fast so this shouldn’t hurt him too much.
DT Michael Brockers DOWN
Brockers is 6-5 322, so 19 reps on the bench press is disappointing. However, long arms do hurt him here and he’s more of a speed and quickness player than a power player, so he could still go in the top 15 or top 10.
DT Marcus Forston UP
Forston missed almost the whole season with injury, but he seemed to have stayed in shape and put in the effort in the weight room. He put up 35 reps of 225 pounds.
DE Melvin Ingram UP
Melvin Ingram lost 8 pounds to show he could fit in a 3-4 defense as a rush linebacker, but he didn’t lose any strength. The 6-1 264 pounder had 28 reps of 225 on the bench press.
DE Nick Perry UP
Nick Perry bulked up to 271 for the Combine and he showed it in the weight room with 35 reps of 225.
DT Dontari Poe UP
Poe is a large man at 6-4 346 and it showed on the bench press as he put up 44 reps, the most of anyone this year and one of the highest totals of the decade.
DT Kendall Reyes UP
Not exactly a known as a power guy so putting up 36 reps of 225 will help his stock.
DT Brett Roy UP
Brett Roy is undersized at 6-3 275 and without a true position, but 32 reps could convince someone he’s worth a look at defensive tackle long term, even if it’s just in a rotational role.
OLB Ryan Baker UP
Ryan Baker is undersized at 5-11 232, but 30 reps of 225, one of the highest linebacker totals, will help his stock. He should get drafted late as a special teams and a depth linebacker with developmental potential.
OLB Miles Burris UP
Miles Burris was one of 3 with over 30 reps of 225, putting up 31 at 6-2 246.
OLB Demario Davis UP
Demario Davis was that 3rd guy with over 30 reps, he had 32 reps at 6-2 235.
OLB Sean Spence DOWN
Spence is undersized at 5-11 231 and just 12 reps of 225 really hurts him. For comparison, every running back had more than that, including 180 pound Chris Rainey. This is a real red flag.
CB Morris Claiborne DOWN
Claiborne measured in at 5-11 rather than 6-1, which is disappointing. It shouldn’t drop him out of the top 10 or anything, but teams in the top 5 or 6 might have some concerns now.
CB Jayron Hosley DOWN
Hosley didn’t bulk up enough for me to be comfortable with him against the run. Listed at 172 at Virginia Tech, he was at 178 for The Combine. I wanted to see 180+ pounds so this hurts his ability to be a starting and complete cornerback in the NFL right away.
CB Chase Minnifield DOWN
Minnifield also measured in 2 inches shorter than listed, measuring in at 5-10 rather than 6-0. That’s actually a big difference in scouts’ eyes.
S Trent Robinson DOWN
I knew he was small, but this just confirms it. The safety is just 5-10 195. I don’t know where he’s supposed to play in the NFL.
Combine Saturday 2012
OT Tom Compton UP
Compton had the fastest 10 yard split of any offensive lineman over 300 pounds, running it at 1.69 at 6-5 314. Compton ran the 40 in 5.11 He’s a small school kid, an athletic left tackle out of South Dakota, but he had a good East/West Shrine Game performance and he might be an interesting mid to late round sleeper.
G Adam Gettis UP
Gettis was the fastest offensive lineman, running the 40 in 4.91 with a 1.65 40 yard split, but he’s also one of the smallest at 6-2 293. He’s not scheme diverse, but he could be a nice fit for some team as a late round depth guard.
G Cordy Glenn UP
Glenn is freakishly athletic. He benched 31 reps, despite 35 ¾ inch arms and now he runs a 5.15 40 with a 1.76 10 yard split at 6-5 345. Glenn did well at the Senior Bowl as a tackle and looks to be able to play right tackle in the right scheme in the NFL, in addition to guard. He’s a powerful run blocker, with the athleticism to become a better pass protector.
G Senio Kelemete DOWN
Kelemete posted an ugly 40 time running the 40 in 5.52 with a 1.95 40 yard split. The 6-4 303 is not very athletic and definitely will have to move to guard at the next level. He was abused at the Senior Bowl and will be abused in the NFL one on one against more athletic defensive ends. Kelemete looks like a mid rounder.
OT Josh Oglesby DOWN
Oglesby had the worst 40 time with a 5.80 at 6-7 338. Oglesby had a solid senior season at right tackle for Wisconsin, but he was also surrounded by an extremely talented supporting cast. A poor 40 time won’t help his cause to get drafted.
OT Donald Stephenson UP
Stephenson was one of the few to crack 5 seconds, running the 40 in 4.94 seconds. The former Oklahoma left tackle is very underrated in my book. He did an excellent job keeping defensive linemen off of Landry Jones last year and, while he’s not the toughest or the best run blocker, he’s a great pass protector and he has the size (6-6 312 with 34 7/8 inch arms) to develop into a more powerful run blocker. He could be a mid round steal.
G Desmond Wynn UP
Wynn is having a solid all around combine, with 34 inch arms at 6-6 303, 28 reps on the bench press and now a 5.05 40 with a 1.76 10 yard split. He’s helped himself this week.
TE Dwayne Allen DOWN
Allen had been helping himself this week, but his 40 time and vertical leap won’t help. For primarily a pass catching tight end, a 4.89 with a 32 inch vertical is not very impressive. He could still go in the 1st round, but this hurts.
TE Orson Charles DOWN
Charles was also having a great week, but inexplicably chose not to run the 40. After putting on 10 pounds of needed weight for the week, one has to wonder if he wasn’t in shape enough to post a good time. He also looked off balanced in the gauntlet drills.
TE James Hanna UP
Hannah posted the fastest 40 time of any tight end with a 4.49 at 6-4 252. He’s very athletic, but not much of a blocker and with his athleticism, one has to wonder why he caught just 27 balls last year in Oklahoma’s explosive offense. Still, this 40 time will help him get drafted late as a developmental tight end.
TE Ladarius Green UP
Green put on 8 pounds to get up to 238, so it’s good to see him still be able to run a fast 40 with a 4.53. He still needs to put on about 5-10 more pounds, but he’s my #4 tight end after Allen, Charles, and Fleener.
TE Evan Rodriguez UP
Rodriguez is another tight end with a fast 40 time, running it in 4.58 seconds. He needed this as an undersized tight end at 6-1 239. Rodriguez is a great pass catcher and his team’s leading receiver last year as a tight end. He might not be a traditional tight end in the NFL, but there’s a role for someone like him.
DE Frank Alexander UP
Alexander was slipping over concerns about his athleticism and ability to play a 3-4, but at 6-4 270 now, that’ll be less of concern unless he posted an awful 40 time. Alexander was an excellent pass rusher for Oklahoma as a senior, with 19 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks. He also has long arms with 35 inch arms.
DE Jamie Blatnick DOWN
Blatnick is not the most athletic. We already knew that, but 31 ½ inch arms hurt. He’s a weight room freak with a great work ethic, who should dominate the bench press drill, but his frame might be maxed out at 6-3 263. He could also post a pretty bad 40 time. His 13.5 tackles for loss and 8 sacks as a senior could be overlooked because of his lack of athleticism and drop him into the late rounds.
DT Michael Brockers UP
Brockers is a physical freak. He never quite lived up to it in his 2 years at LSU and he was a surprise declare as a redshirt sophomore, but at 6-5 322, Brockers has a chance to solidify himself as a top 15 or top 10 draft pick if he runs the 40 in the 4.9s like he’s rumored to be able to. 35 inch arms also suggest room to grow.
DE Chandler Jones UP
Jones is another surprise early declare. Injuries his junior year hurt this athletic freak’s stats, but he could have been a first rounder in 2013 with a solid senior year. Now he looks like a day 2 pick, but his 35 ½ inch arms at 6-5 266 could be something someone takes a chance on early on day 2 if he runs a good 40 and performs well in drills.
DE Jonathan Massaquoi UP
Bulking up to 264 will help Massaquoi intrigue 4-3 teams, assuming he doesn’t run a poor 40 time. Massaquoi had a down junior year and was a surprise early declare, but he had 20.5 tackles for loss and 12.5 sacks in 2010. He looks like a day 2 prospect.
DE Nick Perry UP
Tentatively moving him up, Perry weighed in at 270, 20 pounds heavier than his listed weight. This will make him more attractive to 4-3 teams, but he can’t show that he maintained his athleticism and quickness in drills and in the 40 yard dash, he could hurt his stock with 3-4 teams.
OLB Zach Brown UP
Brown bulked up at 244 from 236 at the Senior Bowl. He’s an athletic freak who could supposedly run in the 4.4s so if he does that, he’ll really help himself get drafted in the first round.
OLB Lavonte David UP
225 is a little small for a linebacker, so it’s really good that David bulked up to 233, assuming he carries the weight well. 233 is still small for a linebacker, but it’s not as ridiculously small as 225 and with his high levels of production, he could still be drafted early in the 2nd round by the right team despite his smaller size.
OLB Sean Spence UP
Spence also bulked up, bulking up to 231 from 225. Spence was also extremely productive in college, but is not the athlete David is. He could be a nice steal in the 3rd round though, because I love his motor.
RB Doug Martin UP
Doug Martin is 5-9 222 pounds and all muscle. This shows on the football field and in the weight room, where he put up 28 reps of 225, tied for most among running backs. He’s my #2 running back.
RB Robert Turbin UP
Turbin was the other back tied with 28 reps of 225, a surprise early declare as a junior, Turbin is a relatively unknown, but I like his power and his blocking and pass catching ability so I think he could be a mid round sleeper.
FB Bradie Ewing DOWN
Bradie Ewing is a fantastic receiver who is great in the open field, but at 239, there were already some concerns about his ability to run block at an elite level. Benching a mere 14 reps won’t help the cause. That could be the difference between 7th round and undrafted for him.
Football Fan Spot 