Year: 2012

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bengals, Chiefs

Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-8)

Almost every year, we have one team go from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. Right now, every playoff team from last year has at least 4 wins. That means one of two things. We’re not going to have a team like that this year (only happened 1 other time in the last decade) or either Detroit, New Orleans, or Cincinnati is about to go 1-6 in their next 7 games.

I’m sticking with the latter for now and I think the Bengals are going to be that team. The Bengals still do not impress me, ranking just 20th in rate of sustaining drives differential, with an even yards per play differential. They’ll probably only be favored in 2 of their remaining 7 games, so it’s possible. That would mean that the Bengals will have to get upset by either the Chiefs or the Raiders in the next 2 weeks.

Can they lose here to the Chiefs? As weird as it may sound, they can. Neither of these teams is really in a good spot. The Bengals beat the Giants as home dogs last week, which opens up 3 trends. One, road teams are 7-15 ATS off a win over the defending champs since 2002. Two, away favorites are 74-97 ATS after being home dogs since 1989. Three, teams are 55-71 ATS off of a win as home dogs since 2008. Meanwhile, road favorites off of 3+ straight home games are 23-41 ATS since 1989.

For the Chiefs, home dogs before being home dogs are 29-42 ATS since 2008. They host the Broncos next week. Home dogs are 6-16 ATS off a close loss (1-3 points) as double digit road dogs. Meanwhile, excluding road dogs, teams are 18-45 ATS off a road overtime loss (6-13 ATS as home dogs) since 2002. However, teams are just 5-5 ATS off a Monday Night game in this spot since 1989. That trend is much more relevant with a team coming off a Sunday game.

Neither team is in a good spot, but we are getting line value with the Chiefs. The rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Kansas City -2.5 and the yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Cincinnati -3, both of which are less than this line of Cincinnati -3.5. The Chiefs, as bad as they’ve been this year, can be competitive if they can avoid losing the turnover battle like they did last week. If they can do that again this week, they can definitely win and turnovers are inconsistent enough for that to happen. On top of all that, the public is pounding Cincinnati and the public always loses in the long run.

The Bengals aren’t good enough to be road dogs really anywhere as the calculations of real line show. Besides, since 2007, the Bengals are just 10-22 ATS as favorites. Since Marvin Lewis took over in 2003, the Bengals are just 11-24 ATS as favorites of more than 3. The Chiefs are in one good spot as a 1-win team off a loss as dogs by a touchdown or less. Teams are 65-43 ATS in that spot since 2002. I think the Chiefs have a chance to win here (and keep open the possibility that the Bengals go 5-11) and I like the money line of +165. I also don’t trust the Bengals in this spot and as favorites, especially as road favorites, so it’s a small play on the spread.

Public lean: Cincinnati (80% range)

Sharps lean: CIN 12 KC 3

Final update: No change.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Cincinnati Bengals 16 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: Kansas City +3.5 (-110) 2 units

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New Orleans Saints at Oakland Raiders: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Raiders, Saints

New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Oakland Raiders (3-6)

The Saints are overrated. Yes, they knocked off Atlanta, but Dallas, Carolina, Washington, and Oakland almost did so. Their defense is still a joke. Because of their defense, they rank 28th in yards per play differential and 25th in rate of sustaining drives differential. Their defense ranks dead last in both of those metrics. The Raiders, meanwhile, aren’t much better, but they rank 24th in yards per play differential and 23rd in rate of sustaining drives differential. They rank better in both of those statistics than the Saints and somehow they’re still home dogs.

Using those statistics to compute real line, we get that Oakland should be 3.5 point favorites using the yards per play differential method and 4.5 points favorites using the rate of sustaining drives differential method. Instead, Oakland is +5.5. That’s 9 or 10 points of line value, which is an absolutely ridiculous amount to get at this point in the season.

Besides, New Orleans has never been good on the road as favorites outside of their division, even when they were good. Since the start of the 2010 season, they are 3-7 ATS as non-divisional road favorites. In his last 13 games as road favorites of 4 or more, Brees is just 4-9 ATS. Their struggles outside of their dome are well documented. Since the start of the 2008 season, Brees completes 68.5% of his passes for an average of 8.1 YPA and 119 touchdowns to 43 interceptions indoors, as opposed to 66.5% completion, 7.5 YPA, and 53 touchdowns to 30 interceptions outside.

Speaking of New Orleans being road favorites, teams are 75-97 ATS as road favorites after being home dogs since 1989. The Saints were home dogs against the Falcons last week. Meanwhile, teams are 68-104 ATS as road favorites before being home dogs since 1989. The Saints go home and will be dogs against San Francisco next week. Furthermore, teams are 12-28 ATS as non-conference favorites off a divisional upset win before being dogs. Teams are 16-5 ATS after ending a perfect season during week 9 or later, but I still think overall the Saints are in a bad spot this week, in addition to being overrated and a poor team on the road, outside of the division, and outside of their dome.

Meanwhile, the Raiders are in a great spot. It may not seem like it after their 35 point loss in Baltimore last week, but that’s exactly why they’re in a good spot. Teams are 62-31 ATS since 2002 coming off a loss of 31+ or more. Teams coming off a blowout like that tend to be overlooked, undervalued, embarrassed and playing for respect.

I think they’ll definitely be the latter of those 2 things. That speaks for itself. I think the Saints will also overlook this lowly non-conference opponent sandwiched in between games against Atlanta and San Francisco, two of the premier teams in their conference (after that they go to Atlanta and the Giants and then host Tampa Bay). Road favorites are 20-39 ATS before being dogs in 3 straight. I also think the Raiders are undervalued as this line has moved from -3 to -5.5 in the last week, giving us even more line value.

The only thing I’m worried about other than that 16-5 trend that I mentioned earlier is that the NFC is 25-16 against the AFC this year, but the Raiders don’t have to win to cover here. Plus, on top of all the things I’ve already mentioned, the public is pounding the Saints. The public always loses money in the long run. I like them to cover the 5.5 for a big play.

Public lean: New Orleans (90% range)

Sharps lean: NO 14 OAK 10

Final update: No change.

Oakland Raiders 31 New Orleans Saints 27 Upset Pick +190

Pick against spread: Oakland Raiders +5.5 (-110) 4 units

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Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Colts, Patriots

Indianapolis Colts (6-3) at New England Patriots (6-3)

The Colts have been underrated all year. From being home dogs against Minnesota and Miami to being just -3 at home for Jacksonville (though they did lose) and -1 at home for Cleveland to being +3.5 against the Jets in New York (another loss) and +3 against the Titans in Tennessee to being -3 in Jacksonville and +7 at home for Green Bay. They are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games, including 5-1 since Chuck Pagano left the team for treatment. They’ve won 4 straight and their only loss since Pagano’s announcement was in New York against the Jets, when they were understandably flat right after their first emotional ChuckStrong victory.

They are once again underrated this week as 9 point dogs in New England. For reference, the Bills were -12 in New England last week and covered. That says Colts are just 3 points better than the Bills at most because the Patriots didn’t even cover last week. Huh? Using the yards per play differential method, the Patriots should just be 3 point favorites and even using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, the Patriots should just be 8 point favorites, even though the Patriots rank 2nd in that statistic.

The Colts shouldn’t be getting this many points against anyone, even though the Patriots do have Aqib Talib making his debut this week. The Colts also return Robert Mathis from injury this week. Mathis, their top pass rusher, has been pretty much out since week 4 (he played very sparingly week 9). They’ve been playing really well ever since they returned several starters defensively (Cory Redding, Dwight Freeney, Pat Angerer). Vontae Davis and Jerraud Powers are out, but their defense is still healthier than it’s been in recent weeks and Darius Butler’s strong performance at cornerback is helping cancel out the loss of Davis and Powers.

Besides, the Patriots tend to struggle when laying this many points at home. Since the start of the 2010 season, they are 5-11 ATS at home as favorites of more than a touchdown, which is pretty incredible considering they’ve been a covering machine in general in the past 2 ½ years. In all other situations, they are a whopping 21-8 ATS. They’ve already failed to cover in all 3 of these instances this season, barely beating the Jets and Bills and losing to the Cardinals, 3 teams that are all significantly worse than the Colts. This game reminds me a lot of when the Giants came to New England as 9 point dogs week 9 last year and won.

The Colts are also in a trio of good spots. First, they’re well rested coming off a Thursday Night Game. On Sunday, teams are 115-95 ATS off a Thursday Night game. Second, they’re dogs before being favorites. Teams are 95-50 ATS in this spot since 2011, including 20-11 ATS as dogs of a touchdown or more. Next week, they host the lowly Bills. Third, the Patriots play the Jets on Thanksgiving next Thursday. Favorites are just 23-36 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night game since 1989, 14-23 ATS before being divisional favorites (which the Patriots will be).

The Colts should be able to keep this one close and even if they don’t, there’s some backdoor potential with the Colts because of how bad the Patriots’ pass defense is, even with Talib. If the Colts are down 10-14 driving for a backdoor cover late this week, I’d rather have them than the Patriots, especially as bad as the Patriots’ pass defense is in the 4th quarter. I also don’t want to bet against this ChuckStrong momentum.

Sharps lean: NE 9 IND 5

Final update: No change.

Public lean: Indianapolis (50% range)

New England Patriots 31 Indianapolis Colts 27

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +9 (-110) 4 units

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Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Commanders, Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at Washington (3-6)

This line has shifted 2 points since last week because of Michael Vick’s injury (-1.5 last week to -3.5 this week), which makes no sense because Michael Vick sucks. Nick Foles went 22 of 32 for 219 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception in relief of Vick last week. He didn’t look as good as those numbers, but he was facing a solid defense and didn’t get any first team reps all season.

This week, he gets a full week of reps with the first team and to face the Redskins’ 27th ranked pass defense. He should be able to have a strong game against them, something I don’t know if Vick could have done. Vick only led the Eagles to 13 points against the Saints’ last ranked pass defense so I don’t understand this line shifting 2 points because of Vick getting hurt.

We’re getting a little bit of line value with the Eagles now that the line has shifted. The Eagles rank 18th in yards per play differential and 16th in rate of sustaining drives differential, while the Redskins rank 20th in yards per play differential and 15th in rate of sustaining drives differential. These two teams are about even. The yards per play differential method of computing line value says that Washington should be -2.5 at home (3 points for home field), while the rate of sustaining drives differential method says this line should be -3.

This is also the exact type of game Andy Reid thrives in. He’s best when being doubted (the public is all over Washington), when he’s a road dog, when he’s coming off a losing streak, and in the latter part of the season. Since the Eagles hired him way back in 1999, he’s 8-5 ATS on a 3+ game losing streak and 4-1 ATS on a 4+ game losing streak (last week was the first time he failed to cover in this situation). I didn’t like them last week because of Vick, but now with Foles, they might actually be better off and they’re certainly going to be more undervalued and more likely to be overlooked.

Also last week, the Eagles were home dogs and Andy Reid is about .500 as home dogs in his career. However, as road dogs, he’s 37-20 ATS, including 16-8 ATS in the division. He’s also 65-42 ATS after week 10, including 22-10 ATS as road dogs after week 10. Another spot that the Eagles weren’t in last week, they’re now dogs before being favorites. Teams are 95-50 ATS in this spot since 2011, including 23-11 ATS as divisional dogs before being non-divisional favorites (they host Carolina next week). Besides, Andy Reid needs this game to keep his job. If Foles impresses down the stretch, the Eagles will keep him around to develop the quarterback he drafted, his specialty.

Meanwhile, the Redskins are divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs as they head to Dallas next week. Teams are 14-47 ATS in this spot since 2002, an incredibly powerful trend. That game is also just 4 days after this one, on Thanksgiving. Favorites are just 23-36 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night game since 1989, 14-23 ATS before being divisional favorites. I also like that the Redskins are pretty heavily bet by the public. Not only does it mean no one believes in the Eagles (when they play best), the public always loses money in the long run. It’s a big play on Nick Foles and the Eagles.

Public lean: Washington (70% range)

Sharps lean: PHI 8 WAS 2

Final update: No change.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Washington Redskins 20 Upset Pick +170

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +3.5 (-110) 4 units

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New York Jets at St. Louis Rams: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Jets, Rams

New York Jets (3-6) at St. Louis Rams (3-5)

Someone check me for a concussion because I really like the Jets this week. The Jets are one of two teams I have not picked to cover once this year, along with the Bengals. Yes, their fans hate me. It may seem weird that this is the week I’m going with the Jets because they seem to be at their lowest point, given all that’s happened in the last week.

However, the Jets always seem to be at their best when they’re at their lowest point. Remember when neither their 1st nor 2nd team offense scored a touchdown all preseason and they were the laughing stock of the football world and then week 1 they crushed the Bills? Remember when they got shut out by the 49ers and then covered in 3 straight weeks? With the team now at 3-6, with all their locker room dirty laundry being aired to the media over the past week, coming off a two straight losses of 21 or more, the Jets are now at their lowest point.

Speaking off 2 straight losses of 21 or more, teams are 35-16 ATS since 2002 coming off back-to-back losses of 21 or more. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, embarrassing, and playing for pride in that spot. The Jets are definitely embarrassed and playing for pride. They’re also undervalued and likely to be overlooked. This line has shifted from St. Louis -2 to -3.5 and the 3-5 Rams are now favorites of more than a field goal.

This is an unfamiliar situation for the Rams. How unfamiliar? Well, this is the first time they’ve been favored all year. Teams are 46-67 ATS as favorites of more than 3 after being dogs in 4 straight. This is also just the 8th time they’ve been favored since the start of the 2009 season. Since 2002, they are just 24-38 ATS as favorites.

Meanwhile, since 1989, home favorites are 97-162 ATS before being dogs in 3+ straight. The Rams probably won’t be in this unfamiliar situation again until at least 4 weeks from now when they host Minnesota, if at all the rest of the season. 2 of their next 3 are on the road and their only home game is against San Francisco, when they almost definitely won’t be favored. Meanwhile, they’re simply not good enough to be road favorites anywhere, even in Buffalo week 14.

All of these trends are basically saying that bad teams don’t do well as favorites. Well, this one also says that. Since 2008, teams are 57-81 ATS as favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs. For good teams, a game like this would represent a breather game, a chance to get an “easy” win after a loss to a tough opponent before facing another tough opponent. For bad teams, it represents a game they probably shouldn’t be favored in. Over that time period, when the game they’re favored in is non-divisional and the other two are divisional (@ San Francisco, vs. NY Jets, @ Arizona), teams are 6-11 ATS. If we go back to 1989 to get a bigger sample size, that trend becomes 23-39 ATS.

I know the Rams didn’t actually lose in San Francisco last week, but it doesn’t seem to matter. Dogs before and after being favorites are 83-118 ATS regardless of the outcome of the first game (26-37 ATS off a win). That tie does make things a little tougher, but not that tough. Teams are 3-7 ATS off a tie and regardless of the outcome of last week’s game, the Rams would be in a bad spot this week.

I already mentioned the sandwich/breather game trend, but here are some more. Teams are 45-66 ATS off a win as double digit dogs, 23-36 ATS off a win as divisional double digit dogs. Favorites after a loss of 1-3 as 10+ dogs are 6-15 ATS since 1989. Home favorites are 10-24 ATS off a road loss in overtime, including 6-17 ATS when the previous overtime loss was as dogs.

If the Rams had won last week in overtime, they’d be in a bad spot. If the Rams had lost last week in overtime, they’d be in a bad spot. And having tied in overtime last week, well they’re still in a bad spot, albeit one with a really small sample size. After playing 75 minutes and taking the 49ers to the brink, the Rams are probably not going to focused for the lowly Jets this week, especially with another divisional road game next on the schedule.

The Jets are also in one more good spot as road dogs off of a road loss. Teams are 80-47 ATS in this spot since 2008. Finally, the Rams are a pretty strong public lean and the public always loses in the long run. There are a few reasons why this isn’t a 5-unit co-pick of the week along with Pittsburgh. For one, the NFC is 25-16 against the AFC this year. Two, we’re actually getting line value with the Rams as the yards per play differential method says they should be 6.5 point favorites and the rate of sustaining drives differential method says they should be 4 point favorites and that’s not taking into account that the Rams now have Danny Amendola and Rodger Saffold healthy, two things that really helped against San Francisco. They’re now 5-1 ATS with Amendola this year and 0-3 ATS without him.

Three, there’s always a chance the Jets are looking forward to a Thanksgiving game with the Patriots immediately after this one, but they simply can’t afford to lose another game if they want to maintain any hope of making the playoffs and I can’t imagine them looking past the Rams having been embarrassed in their last 2 games. They’re playing for pride and always do well at their lowest point, while the Rams are in an unfamiliar spot as favorites could easily overlook this lowly non-conference opponent off a grueling game against San Francisco with another divisional matchup on schedule next. It’s a 4-unit pick.

Public lean: NY Jets (70% range)

Sharps lean: STL 17 NYJ 3

Final update: Sharps do have this at -3, but that probably isn’t the reason why there’s a huge sharps lean on the Rams. I’m going to disagree with them though.

New York Jets 20 St. Louis Rams 16 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: NY Jets +3.5 (-110) 4 units

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Houston Texans: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Texans

Last week: 2 (+1)

Record: 8-1

I guess the Texans move into the #1 spot at Chicago’s expense with their win over them, but you have to wonder what the outcome would have been had Cutler not gotten hurt (he threw an interception on a promising drive immediately after suffering that concussion). It’s a shame that Cutler had to get hurt in what seemed like it would be the most revealing NFL game in terms of how teams stack up thus far this season. Also, that was only the 2nd time since 1991 that two 1-loss teams met this late in the season. It’s disappointing we couldn’t see the two teams as they’ve looked this season personnel wise.

Studs

RB Arian Foster: Rushed for 102 yards (65 after contact) on 29 attempts, 4 broken tackles, caught 5 passes for 15 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts

MLB Bradie James: 5 solo tackles, 4 stops, allowed 4 catches for 14 yards on 5 attempts

CB Kareem Jackson: Allowed 2 catches for 9 yards on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection

SS Danieal Manning: Allowed 1 catch for 6 yards on 2 attempts, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist

Duds

QB Matt Schaub: 14 of 26 for 95 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 2 drops, 63.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 27 drop backs (1 sack, 5 of 7, 1 hit as thrown)

RT Derek Newton: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 27 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for -3 yards on 4 attempts

TE Garrett Graham: Caught 3 passes for 15 yards on 4 attempts, 1 drop, allowed 1 quarterback hit on 3 pass block snaps

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Chicago Bears: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

Last week: 1 (-1)

Record: 7-2

It’s a shame Cutler had to get hurt. I was looking at the Houston and San Francisco games as two games that would valid a Chicago team that had been playing incredible up until that point. With Cutler missing most of the Houston game and probably all of the San Francisco game, we still don’t have a great read on this team. I still say I wouldn’t want to face them in the playoffs more than any NFC team, but their chances at a 1st round bye took a hit when Cutler got hurt.

Still, every year one team goes from out of the playoffs to the first round bye, so you can’t rule Chicago out (only other candidate is Indianapolis really). The key game for them is going to be against Green Bay. As long as Cutler is healthy, that’s a major bench mark as they attempt to prove their week 2 loss to the Packers was a Thursday Night fluke. I still say we’ll see Houston/Chicago again this year (perhaps on a Sunday in February in New Orleans).

Studs

LT J’Marcus Webb: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 3 attempts

C Roberto Garza: Did not allow a pressure on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 3 attempts

CB Tim Jennings: Allowed 1 catch for 23 yards on 4 attempts, 2 interceptions, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes

CB Charles Tillman: Allowed 5 catches for 38 yards on 10 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 7 solo tackles, 2 stops

RE Julius Peppers: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 24 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 4 stops

LE Israel Idonije: 2 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

RB Matt Forte: Rushed for 39 yards (26 after contact) on 16 attempts, 1 broken tackle, caught 2 passes for -3 yards on 5 attempts, 1 drop

RT Gabe Carimi: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 40 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 25 yards on 4 attempts

TE Kellen Davis: Caught 1 pass for 6 yards on 5 attempts on 21 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 1 interception when thrown to

WR Devin Hester: Caught 2 passes for 4 yards on 4 attempts on 24 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch

WR Earl Bennett: Caught 1 pass for 9 yards on 1 attempt on 36 pass snaps, 8.0 YAC per catch

ROLB Nick Roach: 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 1 catch for 1 yard on 1 attempt

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 3 (+0)

Record: 8-1

I’ve said it several times before. There’s only so long you can play inferior teams close before one of them beats out and that’s what happened in New Orleans last week. Fortunately, their remaining schedule isn’t that hard (vs. Arizona, @ Tampa Bay, vs. New Orleans, @ Carolina, vs. NY Giants, @ Detroit, vs. Tampa Bay), so they should probably still be able to get the #1 seed, but I wouldn’t like their chances with someone like Chicago coming to town in the NFC Championship game.

Studs

TE Tony Gonzalez: Caught 11 passes for 122 yards and 2 touchdowns on 15 attempts on 52 pass snaps, 1.9 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

WR Roddy White: Caught 7 passes for 114 yards on 12 attempts on 53 pass snaps, 1.8 YAC per catch

CB Asante Samuel: Did not allow a catch on 3 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 interception, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

P Matt Bosher: 6 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, 70.7 yards per kickoff, 21.0 opponent’s average starting distance, 3 punts for 140 yards, 1 inside 20, 1 return for 2 yards, 46.0 net yards per punt

Duds

RB Michael Turner: Rushed for 15 yards (32 after contact) on 13 attempts, 1 broken tackle, did not catch a pass on 1 attempt

LG Justin Blalock: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 56 pass block snaps

C Todd McClure: 2 quarterback hurries on 56 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 14 yards on 5 attempts

RG Peter Konz: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 56 pass block snaps

SS William Moore: Allowed 3 catches for 90 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 1 penalty, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 quarterback hurry on 1 blitz

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New England Patriots: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots

Last week: 4 (+0)

Record: 6-3

Holy crap this secondary is terrible. They better hope that Aqib Talib making his debut this week and Patrick Chung returning from injury fixes their pass coverage issues. I just can’t see a team with this poor of pass coverage winning the Super Bowl. It’s worse than last year. Besides, no Super Bowl runner up has won the Super Bowl in 40 years. On the flip side, if Talib and Chung can shore up their only real flaw, all of a sudden, this team that already ranks 3rd in the NFL in points differential becomes awfully scary.

Studs

RB Danny Woodhead: Rushed 15 yards (0 after contact) and a touchdown on 1 attempt, caught 4 passes for 46 yards on 6 attempts

K Stephen Gostkowski: 8 kickoffs, 6 touchbacks, 72.9 yards per kickoff, 17.8 opponent’s average starting distance, 3/3 FG (27, 43, 48)

Duds

WR Deion Branch: Caught 4 passes for 30 yards on 8 attempts on 35 pass snaps, 3.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Alfonzo Dennard: Allowed 7 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts, 1 penalty, 6 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

LOLB Jerod Mayo: Allowed 3 catches for 63 yards on 5 attempts, 1 penalty, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

ROLB Dont’a Hightower: Allowed 3 catches for 40 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

RE Chandler Jones: 1 quarterback hurry on 42 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle

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Denver Broncos: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos

Last week: 5 (+0)

Record: 6-3

It’s weird to say, but Tracy Porter getting sick was the turning point for their season. Obviously, I wish the best for Porter in his recovery from him mysterious illness, but as well as Peyton Manning is playing, they wouldn’t be a complete team if it weren’t for Chris Harris and Tony Carter stepping up and playing phenomenal in their secondary and that wouldn’t have happened if Porter were playing.

They haven’t lost since Porter went out. Harris and Porter are both former undrafted cornerbacks who were afterthoughts on the depth chart that Jack Del Rio has playing out of their minds. Carter is allowing 11 of 32 for 115 yards, 2 interceptions, 4 deflections, and 1 penalty and is unfortunately not even on the Pro-Bowl ballot. Chris Harris, meanwhile, is allowing 23 of 40 for 255 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 1 pass and committing just 1 penalty. He also has 3 sacks and is playing the run very well.

They rank 6th in pass defense, 2nd in run defense and lead the league in yards per play differential. In rate of sustaining drives, they’re 9th. Peyton Manning is completing 69.7% of his passes for 8.2 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, all above his career averages. Their only issue is that they’re -4 in turnovers, but they’re improving in that area, though Willis McGahee’s fumbling problem is an issue. Only Tampa Bay and Baltimore are likely playoff teams remaining on their schedule, so they should be able to go around 12-4 and get either the 2nd or 3rd seed in the AFC depending on what happens with New England (remember, the Patriots won head-to-head, so they have the tiebreaker).

Studs

QB Peyton Manning: 27 of 38 for 301 yards and a touchdown, 4 drops, 104.4 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 6 of 40 drop backs (1 sack, 3 of 5)

RG Manuel Ramirez: Did not allow a pressure on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 3 attempts

WR Demaryius Thomas: Caught 9 passes for 135 yards on 11 attempts on 41 pass snaps, 4.1 YAC per catch, 1 drop

WR Trindon Holliday: Caught 2 passes for 17 yards on 2 attempts on 3 pass snaps, 8.5 YAC per catch, 8 punt returns for 125 yards and a touchdown

CB Tony Carter: Allowed 2 catches for 30 yards on 6 attempts, 1 interception, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

ROLB Von Miller: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 5 quarterback hurries on 36 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 penalty

RE Robert Ayers: 1 sack, 3 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops

CB Champ Bailey: Allowed 1 catch for 19 yards on 3 attempts, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

P Britton Colquitt: 6 punts for 288 yards, 3 inside 20, 3 returns for 10 yards, 46.3 net yards per punt

Duds

RB Willis McGahee: Rushed for 56 yards (24 after contact) on 14 attempts, 2 fumbles, 1 penalty, caught 4 passes for 33 yards on 6 attempts, 1 drop

WR Eric Decker: Caught 2 passes for 15 yards on 4 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops

LOLB Wesley Woodyard: 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, allowed 4 catches for 55 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]