The fans want Tim Tebow. Tim Tebow might not be the best quarterback on their roster. He might be, but he might not be. However, we know what Kyle Orton is. Kyle Orton is boring. Kyle Orton can get you to the playoffs if you have a good supporting cast, but he won’t win any games and if he doesn’t have a good supporting cast, he’ll go 5-11. That is probably the case this year for the Broncos, who don’t have a great supporting cast at all.
Why not try Tebow? Worst case scenario, he sucks and you have to start over at quarterback. That’s not a huge deal. With the new rookie wage scale, getting a new quarterback through the draft won’t cost them that much and since Tebow was a late first rounder, he’s not getting paid a ton either. Besides, next year’s quarterback class could be the best since 2004, when Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger all went in the first 11 picks.
However, the Broncos are going to start Orton. He’ll be boring. He won’t get the fans excited. He won’t get them to the playoffs and they still won’t know what Tebow has unless they can make this his team and make him the starter from the get go. Brandon Lloyd is really happy that Orton is the starter. Lloyd, their surprise #1 receiver from a year ago, prefers pass catching from Orton over Tebow, but he might be the only one who is happy about this.
Lloyd is a talented receiver who went from 8 catches for 117 yards in 2009 to 77 catches for 1448 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2010, arguably the most inexplicable thing to happen in football in a long, long time, and that’s saying something. Opposite him, however, they lack a consistent #2. They traded Jabar Gaffney to Washington for basically nothing (Jeremy Jarmon?), a peculiar move considering he was their #2 receiver last season.
Eddie Royal is penciled in as the #2, but I really like 2nd year player Eric Decker, a 3rd round pick in 2010, while I feel Royal is best off in the slot. Meanwhile, Demaryius Thomas, their first round pick in 2010, was supposed to be their #2 receiver, but he can’t stay healthy. He’s out until at least November with an Achilles tear, an injury he suffered in March. It’s possible we don’t see him at all this year.
At tight end, things don’t look much better. Josh McDaniels thought tight ends were the devil’s work so he never utilized them in his time in Denver. He forced talented tight end Tony Scheffler out of town. New Head Coach John Fox, not exactly a fan of tight ends either, at least not pass catching tight ends, signed Daniel Fells in the offseason. Fells is a mediocre pass catcher who had a career high 41 catches in St. Louis with Sam Bradford last year. He is, however, a solid blocker.
On the offensive line, Ryan Clady is an above average left tackle, but that’s about where the good news stops. Zane Beadles and JD Walton, 2nd and 3rd round picks respectively in 2010, sucked as rookies, but figure to be better in their 2nd season. They man the left guard and center spots respectively. Chris Kuper is a pretty marginal player at right guard and right tackle Orlando Franklin is a rookie 2nd round pick who will be hurt by the lockout.
That offensive line is hardly the punishing run blocking offensive line John Fox is used to having. Then again, these running backs are hardly the running backs he’s used to having. He used a two back system in Carolina with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. He’ll try the same in Denver, although Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee aren’t quite the same.
Moreno has disappointed after being taken 12th overall in 2009. He also has trouble staying healthy. John Fox tried to bring DeAngelo Williams from Carolina to make Moreno the 2nd stringer, but he came up empty there. He instead signed Willis McGahee, who is 30 in October. He’s not exactly a great consolation prize to DeAngelo Williams and if Moreno gets hurt, or the 30 year old McGahee gets hurt, they’re screwed. 3rd stringer Lance Ball was absolutely terrible last season and 4th stringer LenDale White (LENDALE WHITE?!?!) probably weighs about 300 pounds by now.
Defensively, things don’t get a lot better. John Fox and John Elway seemed to forget that they had absolutely nothing at defensive tackle going into the draft. I can kind of understand passing on Marcell Dareus for Von Miller, but ignoring the position all together was just stupid. Instead, the Johns opted to settle for Ty Warren, through free agency, and Brodrick Bunkley, through a trade. Warren was let go by the Patriots because of medical concerns, while Bunkley was originally traded to Cleveland, but was sent back to Philadelphia, and eventually to Denver because Cleveland had medical concerns with him. Warren has already hurt his triceps and could be heading to IR. The mediocre Kevin Vickerson will take his place in the lineup and they have absolutely no talented depth at the position.
The Broncos move to a 4-3 after 2 years in a 3-4 and no one is happier about that than Robert Ayers. McDaniels drafted Ayers into a 3-4 scheme that he didn’t fit at all and, predictably, he struggled. He managed just 1.5 sacks in 2 seasons. He still has a chance to turn his career around now that they go to a 4-3 in his 3rd season. He’ll be the left end. If he continues to struggle, the Broncos will probably try Derrick Harvey, a reclamation project who is even more of a long shot than Ayers. Harvey, the 8th overall pick in 2008, has managed just 8 sacks in 3 seasons as a starter in Jacksonville before being benched midway through last year and then cut in the offseason.
Meanwhile, no one is sadder about a switch to a 4-3 than Elvis Dumervil. In 2009, Dumervil led the league in sacks with 17 in his first season in the 3-4. He missed all of last year with an injury and now the Broncos are back to a 4-3, which he doesn’t fit as well. In 3 seasons in the 4-3 in his career, he has 26 sacks. That’s not bad, but it’s not elite like he was in the 3-4. Combine that with the injury he’s coming off of and he’s all of a sudden a question mark when just 12 or so months ago, he was their best defensive player.
Speaking of not fitting a 4-3, Von Miller will start at strong side linebacker. Well, it’s not that he doesn’t fit a 4-3, but he isn’t as valuable in one. Miller is a beast and can be an above average strong side linebacker, even as a rookie, even after a lockout, but he’s most valuable rushing the passer and he can’t do that in a 4-3 unless it’s a 3rd down or a 2nd and long, which, considering they can’t stop the run, will happen about a combined 5 times this season for them.
On the weak side is DJ Williams. Williams is a stud in both a 3-4 and a 4-3 so I’m not too worried about him at all. The middle is more of a weakness. Joe Mays is an unproven player who has been underwhelming in his first 2 years in the league. This is his first year as a starter. Nate Irving was their 3rd round pick this past April, but he’s currently 3rd on the depth chart so his chances of moving up and winning the job at any point this season seem pretty slim, for whatever reason.
Their pass defense was one of the worst in the league last year. Only Jacksonville and Houston allowed more yards per attempt than Denver did last year. An improved pass rush will help. Elvis Dumervil is back and Robert Ayers is in an easier scheme and Von Miller is a stud when he gets a chance to rush the passer. However, some better talent in the secondary other than Champ Bailey would have been helpful.
Andre Goodman and Perrish Cox both struggled opposite Bailey last season, though Cox was a rookie so I guess he has an excuse. Rahim Moore will start at one safety spot, but he’s a rookie and rookie defensive backs tend to struggle. The 2nd round pick will also be hurt by the lockout. At the other safety spot, Brian Dawkins is the starter. He’s a future Hall of Famer, but I’m pretty sure the man is like 85 years old at this point (I’m kidding, he’s only 38, but still). He was clearly done last season, but it doesn’t look like the Broncos have any choice at this point. Oh, and by the way, Bailey himself is 33 so he should be on the decline as well.
Making a prediction for the Broncos is simple. Kyle Orton can’t make the playoffs without a good supporting cast. That’s why he went 3-10 last year before being benched for Tebow, who, by the way, went 1-2 and kept them in all 3 games. There isn’t a lot of talent on this team so they won’t make the playoffs. They might as well give Tebow a shot, but they don’t see it that way. They see themselves as a legitimate playoff contender (you kind of can’t blame them, key word kind of) so they are going to roll with Orton, who they feel is the better quarterback. I feel they’re making a mistake, but we’ll see in time.
Quarterback: C+
Running backs: C
Receiving corps: C
Offensive line: C+
Run defense: F
Pass rush: C-
Pass coverage: C
Coaching: B-
Projection: 5-11 3rd in AFC West
Football Fan Spot 