Defensive End/Rush Linebacker
Michigan
6-1 268
40 time: 4.69
Draft board overall prospect rank: #14
Draft board defensive end rank: #2
Overall rating: 87*
1/30/10: Graham had a huge Senior Bowl week. It started out bad when he measured up at just over 6 feet and with the shortest arms of any defensive lineman, but he really impressed in practice and even more so in the game. He won Senior Bowl MVP with 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble, a tackle for a loss, and 5 tackles. He was disruptive on almost every play and had more signature plays than any other player. He really hustled and earned a lot of praise from the commentators. He chased down Jarrett Brown, the fastest quarterback on either roster, from behind, something that will only show up on the stat sheet as a tackle. He’s a former linebacker, with an excellent motor and an excellent pass rushing repertoire, but he’s also extremely stout and disruptive against the run. He can play both 4-3 left end and 4-3 right end, in addition to rush linebacker. The commentators compared him to LaMarr Woodley of the Pittsburgh Steelers and I think that comparison is dead on. I think he cemented himself as a 1st round pick.
1/27/10: Measuring in at just over 6 feet at his weigh in isn’t good, but he’s making scouts forget about his lack of height, with his play at practice this week. He has a very solid base and looks like a legitimate defensive line player in the NFL. His form against the run needs to be improved, but he has shown great speed rushing moves in addition to being one of the best young bull rushers at the Senior Bowl. If he can impress in coverage, he could be a 1st round pick as either a defensive end or rush linebacker.
1/21/10: With 29 sacks in the last 3 years against Big 10 competition, Graham is a pass rushing machine, but despite his size, he isn’t great against the run. He’s best fit as a rush linebacker at the next level and I can’t see him fitting all schemes. His 40 time isn’t great either so he’ll be viewed as a bit of a tweener by the scouts and that could drop him down in the 3rd round. He has first round upside as a rush linebacker though despite his lack of height and timed speed, assuming he can transition to a new position well and hold up in pass coverage.
9/7/09: Brandon Graham is that rare type of complete every down left end. He has strength, an excellent pass rushing repertoire, and good speed for his size. He had 20 tackles for losses last season to go with 10 sacks, a bright spot in a down year for Michigan football. His lack of ideal height will hurt his draft stock more than it will hurt his ability to get to the quarterback. He is very strong. 270 pounds may not seems like much but at 6-2 that’s the equivalent of about 280 pounds from someone who is 6-4 or 6-5. The fact that he could run a 40 in the 4.6s, to go with that kind of strength, is amazing, especially when you consider his track record as a pass rusher. He has 18.5 sacks in his last 2 seasons despite not starting the whole season in 2008. His strength has not really translated to success at stopping the run just yet, but he has size, quickness, and long arms so he’s a decent run stopper with the ability to get better with practice. I’m not sure he can make the transition to 3-4 rush linebacker because of his size, but I don’t think he’s big enough or a good enough fit to play 3-4 defensive end so he should be limited by the number of teams that can draft him. However, Robert Ayers had the same problem last year and was drafted 18thoverall by the Broncos, who are hoping to make the switch to the 3-4 this season. As a pass rusher, he is too quick and too fast for most right tackles and too strong for most left tackles so he creates matchup problems wherever you line him up, though he is likely to line up at left end because of his size. His height can be a bit of a disadvantage because bigger tackles can make it so he can’t see the quarterback, making it harder for Graham to sack him, especially if he is a more mobile quarterback that moves a lot. He has long arms though to push off of bigger tackles to relocate the quarterback and he has great closing speed to compliment his size and agility. With another big season, he’ll be a first round lock and I project big things out of him in the future.
NFL Comparison: LaMarr Woodley
*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here
Brandon Ghee Scout
Cornerback
Wake Forest
6-0 193
40 time: 4.37
Draft board overall prospect rank: #32
Draft board cornerback rank: #3
Overall rating: 83*
3/21/10: With all of the extremely athletic players in this draft class, it can be easy to overlook Brandon Ghee, but he should not be overlooked. He’s raw, but he has huge upside and has shown flashes of brilliance in the past. He also looked great in the Senior Bowl. In addition to his 4.37 speed at 6-0 193, Ghee is very competent in both man and zone schemes as a shutdown corner who quarterbacks don’t like to throw on. He’s very tall and frustrating for wide receivers and has the athleticism to match up with most receivers. He needs polishing, but I have no question about the fact that he could be a future starting cornerback or more in the NFL, even if he starts out as a nickel or a depth guy. As good as he is against the pass, he may be better against the run. He’s one of the strongest cornerbacks against the run in this draft class and that certainly will help him get early playing time. If he falls at cornerback, he could play at safety, as despite his relatively small size, he’s a very sound tackler and takes great routes to the ball. He’s very strong and athletic and is not easily blocked by wide receivers. In addition to his natural athleticism, you have to love his fundamentals, his instincts, and his timing. He seems like he was made to be a defensive back. He needs more polishing, but he should be getting a lot more recognition than he is.
NFL Comparison: Jonathan Joseph
*=For a breakdown of what this means, click here
Brandon Carr Cowboys
Brandon Carr is one of, if not the best #2 cornerbacks in the league in Kansas City next to Brandon Flowers. Last season, he allowed a 49.4% completion percentage, 6.5 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, good for a QB rating allowed that ranked 5th best amongst cornerbacks who played more than 75% of their team’s snaps.
However, the Cowboys are paying him to be a #1 cornerback, giving him 5 years, 50.1 million. He’ll replace Terence Newman and while he’s definitely an upgrade over him, he’s still a projection to the #1 cornerback spot so the Cowboys are taking a risk signing him to a huge deal. Johnathan Joseph made the transition well last offseason, but that doesn’t mean Carr will necessarily do the same. I think the Cowboys slightly overpaid giving him more money than Johnathan Joseph and Cortland Finnegan. It’s not like they didn’t have the need though.
Grade: B
Brady Quinn Broncos
Josh McDaniels won a trade?! Well, he was negotiating with the Browns and Eric Mangini. I know this trade was probably Mike Holmgren’s doing too, but Eric Mangini wanted Quinn out of there and Holmgren, no longer needing Quinn after signing Delhomme yesterday, did what Mangina wanted and sold Quinn for pennies on the dollar. Let’s see what they got for him. Two late picks and a fullback. I know Peyton Hillis can also play some running back, but he’s nothing more than a solid power backup to Jerome Harrison and a decent lead blocker, but they already have Lawrence Vickers at fullback and he does a decent job. Brady Quinn wasn’t developing the way they wanted him to, but 353 career attempts is not enough to write off a former 1st rounder as a bust and sell him for a fullback and two late round picks. As for the Broncos, they got a steal here as Quinn has some upside and fits their system well. Too bad they already have Kyle Orton. I don’t know what they pan to do with both. Neither are great, but neither are awful.
Grade for Broncos: B+
Grade for Browns: C-
Brad Smith Bills
Brad Smith is a nice player. He can do all sorts of things and can score from anywhere on the field with his speed. He can run the ball. He can catch some passes. He can even throw out of the wildcat and he returned two kickoffs to the house last year. However, the Bills already have someone who can do what I just said. They spent the 9th overall pick on him a year ago, CJ Spiller. I don’t hate the move, but Smith just seems redundant and the Bills are not in a position as a franchise to be doubling up on accessories like Spiller and Smith. Maybe they’re going to have Spiller focus more on offense and make Smith their primary kick returner, to keep Spiller healthy, but if that’s the case then they just gave a 4 year deal to a kick returner and kick returners have notoriously short shelf lives.
Grade: C
Bradford Beats Baltimore
By Vince Vitale
The St. Louis Rams ran their preseason record to 3-1 with a 27-21 victory over the Baltimore Ravens Thursday night before a crowd of 42,327 hopeful Rams fans. In reality there were not more than 20-25K fans at this game but the ones that attended got to see Sam Bradford continue his strides with a perfect evening. Bradford was only in for one series but he made the most of his opportunity going 6 of 6 for 68 yards and a touchdown pass to Billy Bajema to put the Rams up 7-0. Bradford finished the preseason 33 of 55 for 338 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions for a QB rating of 95.9.
In a game which the Baltimore Ravens only dressed 41 players it was more entertaining than you would have thought. The Rams once again dominated the first half at one time holding a 236 to 25 total yards advantage. If not for a holding call on Eric Young, Kevin Dockery’s inability to fall on a muffed punt, Chris Chamberlain’s ability to be caught from behind by Jalen Parmele, and a bobbled reception by Brandon Gibson that turned into a Dannell Ellerbee 57 yard interception return for a TD the Rams could have easily been up 35-0 at half-time. Good teams learn how to take advantage of every mistake and the Rams are still learning but they appear to be much improved.
For the most part both teams used this game to take a look at the players that will make up the bottom half of their rosters. The Rams must cut 22 players by 5PM Saturday night to get down to 53. During this game many of the Rams bubble players stepped up and made some plays so many hard decisions will still need to be made by Coach Steve Spagnuolo and his staff. The backup running back position is still the most up in the air as far as I am concerned. I believe Keith Toston to be the best of what we have but the Rams still may acquire a running back waived this upcoming weekend so we will have to wait and see.
As for Sam Bradford he has made his case to be the starting quarterback of the St. Louis Rams. I believe Sam should play from day one, and there should be no looking back. A.J. Feeley still has an injured thumb and is much better suited for the backup role anyway. For new owner Stan Kronke what better way to get the Rams fan base excited again than to have Sam Bradford lead the St. Louis Rams onto the field Sunday September 12th against the Arizona Cardinals to open the 2010 NFL season.
Boston College/Maryland
Spotlight #1: Boston College CB Donnie Fletcher
Spotlight #2: Maryland CB Cameron Chism
1st quarter
13:58: Chism can’t quite get around a block on a sizeable run. Needs to put in more effort.
10:59: Game broadcast went out for 3 minutes of game time. BC scored.
10:08: Broadcaster notes that BC only completed one pass on that scoring drive and I saw it, it was on the other corner short. Doubt there was anything much to learn about Chism on that drive.
9:22: Maryland quarterback rolls out to Fletcher’s side on 3rd down, Fletcher has his man blanketed, so the quarterback has to check down to this side rather than throwing deeper than the sticks, ball knocked incomplete by a big hit by an underneath cover man. Maryland settles for a field goal.
7:44: Chism makes a nice open field tackle on the back taking a check down out of the backfield. Just like the teach it.
2nd quarter
14:41: Chism gets blocked off the play on a long run by a 2nd level block.
8:43: Chism thrown on over the middle, good late move to get a deflection.
8:28: Kuechly with an interception, quarterback doesn’t see him, ball too low, easy pick.
5:57: Kuechly blows up a play in the backfield, tackle for loss.
5:07: Chism in good position and shows good instincts to recover a fumble.
1:30: Fletcher thrown on for the first time tonight, thrown on short, good hit, receiver can’t catch ball, weather may have been a factor.
0:20: Chism with good deep, tight coverage, ball pretty inaccurate anyway.
3rd quarter
14:54: Kuechly with a special teams tackle. Kid does everything.
14:07: Davin Meggett with his 3rd drop of the game.
11:44: Fletcher takes a bad angle to the ball on an outside run to his side.
6:36: Fletcher in on a tackle after a long gain on a quarterback scramble.
1:49: Chism whiffs on a tackle in the backfield on a check down, allows back to get a first down on 4th and 5.
4th quarter
6:50: Meggett drops like his 4th or 5th pass of the game.
5:51: Chism does a good job of getting in position to make an open field tackle, but guilty of a horse collar personal foul. Can’t have that. Sets BC up with 1st and goal.
3:33: Fletcher allows a reception for a first down.
3:21: BC has a 28-10 lead and has been subbing starters in and out some. Not Kuechly. He’s stayed in the whole game.
2:05: Kuechly is in on the hands team too. Just saying.
1:42: Chism is able to catch a back from behind on a long run.
0:00: In hindsight, this might have been a bad game to scout two cornerback prospects. This game took place between two already bad passing offenses in the snow and sleet in Maryland. Boston College was just 5 of 12 passing and Maryland 16 of 41, only passing 41 times because they had to down multiple scores late.
Boston College was the victor in this one because they were able to dominant the line of scrimmage in this one. Boston College’s sophomore running back Rolandan Finch rushed for 243 yards and 2 scores on 39 carries despite facing stacked boxes all night because of a combination of his talent and amazing blocking by Boston College’s offensive line.
On the flip side, Maryland’s Davin Meggett was only able to rush for 99 yards on 17 carries. He didn’t particularly stand out as a very good running back. The fringe draftable prospect had 896 yards and 4 touchdowns on 171 carries this season, all 3 of which were career highs, but he really didn’t stand out here in a game that was built for running backs to stand out. He also dropped about 5 passes, contributing to Maryland’s awful passing numbers. Weather might have had a lot to do with Meggett’s drops, but he only had 17 catches on the season anyway, so his hands are a big question.
Now to the two cornerbacks I spotlighted. I really felt Fletcher stood out more as a better cornerback. He only allowed 1 catch in the game and that was late in prevent coverage. Maryland might not have passed well, but they did complete 16 passes because of how much they had to throw. Fletcher only allowed 1. Chism actually didn’t allow any, but Boston College only completed 5 and he was thrown on more than Fletcher, much more if you consider how much less Boston College threw in general. Boston College wasn’t afraid to test Chism. Maryland looked afraid of Fletcher, even deciding to check down on 3rd down short of the sticks on one instance after a roll out to Fletcher side because Fletcher had the route blanketed.
Fletcher also did better in run support. Boston College had a lot more runs into the secondary and Chism had his fair share of whiffs and a personal foul penalty, though he did have some nice tackles. Fletcher had fewer runs come into the secondary against Boston College, but in general help up in run support much better. This makes sense as Fletcher is 6-1 200, while Chism is 5-10 190. Fletcher finished with 4 tackles, Chism with 3. Fletcher looks to have shown himself as a 3rd round pick as so, while Chism is probably a 5th or maybe 4th rounder.
Luke Kuechly had another impressive game for Boston College. The slippery conditions didn’t seem to give Maryland much of an advantage in the run game offensively and Kuechly was a huge part of it, putting it 12 tackles once again. He also had a tackle for loss and a pick. He might have a lack of huge impact plays, but Kuechly has totals of 142, 183, and 191 tackles in his 3 seasons at Boston College. He’s a tremendous fundamental tackler with a nose for the football and great instincts and hustle. He’s also a high character kid who loves football. I was really impressed how he played the entire game despite a huge lead. He also plays special teams and was on the hands team. He’s might not be the fastest or the biggest, but he still looks like a top 10 pick in my book.
Boise State/Toledo
Spotlight #1: Boise State QB Kellen Moore
Spotlight #2: Boise State DE Shea McClellin
14:29: Inaccurate short throw by Moore.
13:43: Moore gets the pass off in time against the rush, but it’s dropped by the receiver. As with the first throw, it’s not a great spiral, but this one should have been caught.
13:27: McClellin lines up at linebacker on the audible. He drops into coverage, but isn’t tested. Coverage skills will be important for him at 255ish pounds.
11:22: Moore pressured, throws screen play complete off his bad foot.
10:04: Moore throws off his back foot again, short pass sails high, running back Doug Martin has to make a nice leaping catch on the run for the completion and the first.
9:04: Kellen Moore with a nice running pass on a play action rollout for a 7 yard completion.
8:00: Moore takes a snap from under center. He’s taken a few of those, always a positive for a college quarterback.
6:56: Moore with a passing touchdown for 26 yards. His passing motion doesn’t look fluid though, though that may be because he’s a 6 foot tall lefty.
4:35: Not McClellin, but an excellent pass rush for the sack by Tyrone Crawford. The 6-4 276 Crawford had 7.5 sacks last year and now has 2.5 on this season with an excellent play there.
4:10: Moore’s pass batted down by a pass rusher at the line of scrimmage. That’s the problem with being just 6 feet tall.
4:03: Accurate short throw over the middle by Moore.
2:49: Smart move by Moore to indentify the blitz and find the open man on a screen and Doug Martin is able to score it for 71 yards on a phenomenal run. He’ll be spotlighted on a later date, but I’m very impressed with this kid so far tonight. Nice poise by Moore as well.
0:33: McClellin pass rushes from a 2 point stance and gets completely man handled.
2nd quarter
13:46: Moore finds a wide open man for a first down.
13:18: Limp pass completed for a first down by Moore.
7:48: McClellin hasn’t had much of an impact as a pass rusher at all, but he’s starting in a two point stance and dropping into coverage frequently. He looks fluid.
6:45: Quick pass, one read, and a first down throw by Kellen Moore.
5:33: Moore with another smooth play action and a completion. He’s extremely cool and calm in the pocket and has great decision making.
3:20: Another batted ball at the line of scrimmage against Moore. This is going to happen to him all the time at the NFL level because of his height and his delivery point. This might be a deal breaker with him.
0:17: Moore throws the jump ball to a big receiver for a goal line touchdown.
3rd quarter
13:16: Very wobbly throw by Kellen Moore.
8:46: Toledo tries the same type of screen play they scored a touchdown earlier on. McClellin was not fooled. He batted the ball up in the air for an interception. A very athletic, fluid, instinctive play.
6:30: Another touchdown for Kellen Moore, another unnecessary back foot throw. This stuff isn’t going to work at the next level.
3:09: Another quick throw for Moore, another completion and another first down on a short throw. He’ll need to be able to do something other than check down at the next level.
1:52: Moore makes a bad decision and it’s returned almost for a pick six. With how wobbly some of his throws are, he leaves no room for error. He can’t consistently throw into coverage like that without getting consistently picked off. That only works when someone’s wide open.
0:00: Moore has been checking down a lot and Doug Martin has made him look very good.
4th quarter
13:27: Moore’s first really impressive throw of the night. It had good velocity and he threw a guy open deep. This is the type of thing he needs to do more of, high velocity throws and throwing guys open.
10:25: Shea McClellin with a tackle for loss.
5:58: Another nice throw. This one goes for a touchdown, his 5th of the night.
0:00: I think I’ve seen all I need to see of Kellen Moore. This was, by all indications, one of his best games in college. He was playing a weak defense and threw for 455 yards and 5 scores. And I still wasn’t impressed. He threw a lot of screens and didn’t throw downfield often. Running back Doug Martin caught 5 passes for 122 yards, all on screens, making Moore look a lot better than his stats would say. More on Martin later.
Moore has the terrible combination of a small frame and a low release point. Drew Brees and Michael Vick have made it in the NFL at 6 foot tall, but they’re exceptions not the rule and neither of them have the low release point Moore has. Making it in the NFL is going to be borderline impossible for someone like that because defensive linemen can way too easily bat the passes down at the line. It’s a shame because Moore is one of the smartest and most accurate college quarterbacks of the decade.
He also lacks a big NFL arm. He’ll have to throw downfield at the NFL level. It’s going to be necessary. However, his deep balls come out very wobbly. That fine if someone is wide open, but very rarely will someone be wide open deep in the NFL. Throwing that type of deep ball into any kind of coverage is going to lead to picks. He also throws off his back foot unnecessarily and doesn’t have the most fluid delivery. He doesn’t throw the ball with a lot of velocity and height and he doesn’t throw a lot of guys open.
If he has any chance in the NFL, it’s in a West Coast offense where he can make quick decisions, get the ball out early, before the pass rush can get to him and try to knock the ball down, and not have to make a lot of deep throws. Still, it’s a long shot. I’m probably not going to have anything higher than a 5th round grade on him when it’s all said and done and that’s just on the slight chance he falls into the right scheme or is able to develop the ability to put more velocity and height on his passes.
As for his running back Doug Martin, I was very impressed with him, specifically as a pass catcher. He caught 5 passes for 122 yards. He didn’t have a great day on the ground with 60 yards on 19 carries, but he breaks a lot of tackles and is a ferocious bowling ball of a runner. He rushed for 1260 yards and 12 touchdowns on 201 carries in 2010 and also caught 28 passes. Unless he continues to struggle on the ground, he looks like a 3rd round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.
As for the other spotlight, Shea McClellin. McClellin had a few nice plays, a tackle for a loss and a batted ball that got intercepted, but he didn’t come close to having the type of 2.5 sack performance he had in the opener. He’s got a nice motor, however, and I’m not knocking him too far down as a pass rusher after one game because he has a track record. It was nice for me to see his ability to drop into coverage and rush the passer from a two point stance. He’s only about 255, 257 pounds so he’s probably a 3-4 rush linebacker at the next level. He’s looks nimble and athletic and able to do the type of things he’ll have to do as a rush linebacker. He’s probably an early day 3 pick at this point, but it’s a long season. He’s definitely a candidate to be a senior year riser.
Boise State/Fresno State
Spotlight #1: Boise State RB Doug Martin
Spotlight #2: Boise State DT Billy Winn
1st quarter
13:06: Martin takes an inside handoff for a few, pushing the pile after contact.
12:19: Martin with a gain of 4, has a lot of guys around him because he doesn’t have great foot speed, but he can break tackles and pushes forward well.
11:17: Martin has no room and is stuffed at the line by a pile.
10:35: Logan Harrell, Fresno State’s best defensive player, with an ugly and stupid offsides penalty on 3rd and a long goal.
8:42: Doug Martin runs right into an unblocked man near the line of scrimmage. He needs to display better vision.
7:38: Winn disengages from a block and is able to bring down the ball carrier for a short gain on first down.
7:02: Winn run at again and again it’s a very small gain.
4:57: Martin blown up in the backfield by Logan Harrell. Harrell got penetration extremely quickly and Martin had nowhere to go. Harrell is 3rd in the nation in tackles for loss, but at 6-2 275, he’ll have to move to end at the next level. He’s a mid to late rounder.
3:27: Martin blown up in the backfield by Logan Harrell. I’m making sure to spotlight him at some point this season. Martin is not doing a good job of breaking tackles. He has a mere 8 yards on 6 carries.
2nd quarter
14:01: Chase Baker, another potential draft pick on Boise State’s defensive line, gets a great quarterback pressure on 3rd and 2 here. Billy Winn got free too, but Baker was the lead chase man here and forced the Fresno State quarterback to throw it away.
13:50: Martin gets great blocking to the outside, but with his lack of speed, he was only able to get 7. He’s not great in space.
11:52: Martin gets bounced back on a chip block in the backfield.
11:01: Martin finds a decent hole for a few yards. He hasn’t been terrible impressive tonight.
9:54: Martin falls down on another very poor chip block.
9:40: Martin is run at again and the back is stuffed at the line by multiple guys. This Boise State line has once again done a good job against the run.
8:23: Excellent push by Winn, leading to a double team, and he’s still able to hold his own against a double.
1:56: Winn beats his man easily and gets a strip sack and Fresno State turns it over.
1:35: Martin with a short gain. He’s really struggling this year averaging less than 4 yards per carry and now he’s struggling with Fresno State. His stock is dropping.
1:11: Martin on a screen, again gets nowhere thanks to a great tackle by Logan Harrell. Harrell is able to stay with him and not get faked out by Martin’s dancing around.
1:05: Martin on 3rd and 4 in space on a pass catch in the flat, spins for the first.
0:41: Martin with another reception in the flat. He breaks one tackle in the backfield with a nice stiff arm and he’s able to get a medium sized gain on 2nd and 10.
3rd quarter
14:55: Martin takes a huge special teams hit on a kickoff return.
14:40: Martin with his best run of the night, an 8 yarder up the middle. Nice run.
14:08: Martin stuffed at the line again. He had to shake a few tackles just to get there.
12:26: Winn gets good position, but is unable to disengage from a block. He’s run right past.
9:45: Martin with a decent run.
9:27: Martin finally with a big run. He bounces off a tackle up the middle, cuts to the outside and runs with nothing but open field between him and the end zone for a while. 55 yards. He did everything on that run, speed, strength, elusiveness, vision.
8:59: Martin punches it in on the goal line. He’s too big and powerful there.
1:24: Martin is pulled with a 50-0 lead. If Billy Winn is pulled too, I’m calling this scouting report early. No point in me watching a bunch of backups.
4th quarter
10:46: Winn is out too. That’s all for tonight.
0:00: So I didn’t get to see a full game of either because Boise State had a blowout win here and pulled their starters. However, I did learn some things. I wasn’t terribly impressed with Doug Martin. Martin is being mentioned as a day 2 pick, but I’d have him a little lower than there. He rushed for 94 yards on 16 carries, an average of 5.9 per, but more than half of that came of one 55 yard run. Aside from that run, he had 15 carries for 39 yards.
He looked really slow and while he broke a lot of tackles, a lot of tacklers were able to get to him because he doesn’t have the speed and initial burst necessary to escape them. He had 3 catches and he is a great pass catcher, but he also really struggled as a pass blocker. He can be a decent back at the next level and he doesn’t go down on first contact, but he’s not fast enough to be a consistent back at the next level. He’s averaging roughly 4 yards per carry this season and that’s against a pretty weak schedule. How is he going to maintain a high level at the next level?
As for Billy Winn, he had a good game, as did most of Boise State’s defensive line. Winn held up well when run at decent his smaller size at 6-4 285, but at the same time, he was playing a smaller Fresno State team. He also had a strip sack. I think he belongs in a 3-4 as a defensive end at the next level and he should be a mid round pick. He wasn’t particularly excellent against a weak foe this week and he isn’t having that great of a season, but he’s still good. One final note, Logan Harrell for Fresno State had a huge game against a tough foe in Boise State. I’m spotlighting him next week.
Boise/Arizona State
Spotlight #1: Boise State OT Nate Potter
Spotlight #2: Boise State S George Iloka
1st quarter
14:46: Doug Martin takes opening kickoff to the house for a touchdown, 100 yards.
12:10: Iloka blows up a tough catch in the backfield with a huge hit and a tackle for loss.
10:48: Potter with a well executed cut block to help propel a huge gain on a screen play.
9:07: Potter knocks a guy down on a swim move, blocks another guy, impressive sequence.
8:18: Shea McClellin gets in on a tackle for loss.
5:41: Potter pushed a little back, might have forced the quarterback to throw a little bit earlier than he wanted to.
3:17: Moore throws a pick, but off a deflection. A bit behind the receiver, but the receiver needed to make a better adjustment and make the catch.
0:46: Garth Gerhart, a potentially draftable center, botches the snap.
2nd quarter
14:57: Potter helps seal a hole for a solid off tackle run.
14:10: Potter struggles some against the bull rush again.
13:12: Potter with a decent outside run block, Doug Martin with a powerful outside run, breaks several tackles, so tough to tackle in the open field.
10:09: Potter needs double team help in pass protection.
9:43: Martin not on the same page with his quarterback on a potential 3rd down catch.
8:11: Iloka covering Gerell Robinson, ball a little high, incomplete, hits guy hard as he goes up, clean.
8:01: 6-4 Robinson hit on last play over the middle, goes over the middle again for touch catch. No fear. That’s what I like to see.
7:45: Iloka whiffs on a diving tackle.
7:14: Iloka sticks his nose in on a tackle a good distance from the line of scrimmage, first down.
5:50: Iloka on Robinson in end zone, great defense and a deflection. Excellent play one on one with a big receiver who has been gutting them so far, forces field goal.
5:29: Potter with a decent push as a run blocker, does need to bulk up though.
3:54: Potter with first real pass blocking mistakes of the night, beat off the snap and struggles to recover as Moore has the release quickly, though Moore completes it for a first down on what was probably a designed 3 step drop.
2:52: Potter with a smooth 2nd level block for another good Martin run, though this time he didn’t have a break a bunch of tackles. Untouched for a bunch of yards.
1:28: Potter blown past by pure speed rush, allows pressure, Moore avoids sack, steps up, still accurate.
3rd quarter
13:25: Moore hit as he throws, wobbly throw, picked, shouldn’t have been thrown.
13:17: Boise State gets pressure, Osweiler steps up from Iloka’s pressure on a blitz, sacked by Billy Winn.
12:32: Robinson with another great catch over the middle.
12:08: Iloka lines up at cornerback, 4th and 4, thrown on one on one, incomplete, off balance throw against blitz, still good coverage by Iloka.
10:29: Moore fumbles on an under center snap. Problem for him. Doesn’t take a lot of under center snaps. NFL scouts don’t want to see this. Arizona State recovers.
9:22: Robinson with a great run block downfield on a long Arizona State outside run.
7:20: Crawford and Baker continue on a huge tackle for loss on the goal line.
5:42: Robinson with back to back over the middle catches.
5:09: Shea McClellin with a sack.
3:45: Potter pass protects for a long time well against a bull rush, eventually beaten but after a long time and nothing bad happens because Moore released well before pressure got to him.
3:21: Potter does a good job of recovering after being beaten off snap, throws guy off play in pass protection.
3:00: Potter takes a guy down on a cut block.
2:26: Potter does a good job of zone blocking the defensive linemen, helps push defensive line away from direction Moore rolled out on pass attack bootleg.
0:38: Potter athletic in 2nd level.
4th quarter
13:05: 21 yard touchdown by Robinson.
11:11: Iloka thrown on against sideline, complete.
10:46: Iloka misses a tackle on a long gain by Robinson.
8:45: Another botched snap for Arizona State, this time on 4th and long in field goal range.
7:24: Potter misses this cut block.
6:45: Doug Martin still running hard, 16 yards up the middle with great burst, could have been more if not for a shoestring tackle.
6:09: Boise not running behind Potter much.
5:21: Martin designed run behind Potter, nothing there at all, nice job by Martin to cutback for hardnosed 3 yard gain.
2:24: Martin with a rushing touchdown. Up 56-17 now, run heavy drive. Potter became pretty useless on this drive. Moore took most of the snaps from under center and didn’t fumble, but didn’t drop back and throw much at all either.
0:00: This was an absolute blowout of a game in favor of Boise State. Boise led 28-7 at halftime and won 56-24, only allowing the majority of their points in garbage time, proving that they deserved consideration for a BCS game over the likes of Michigan and Virginia Tech. The win was Kellen Moore’s 50th of his career, one of those records that we may see stand forever. Moore went 50-3 in his career, losing 3 games by a combined 5 points and could have been 52-1 easily if his team had a better kicker.
Still, there are some questions about Moore’s ability to be a capable NFL quarterback. The first concern is his height. He’s listed at 6-0 and may be even shorter in reality. Very few NFL quarterbacks are that short. The list includes Drew Brees and Michael Vick, but basically stops there and neither of them have the weird release angle that Moore has, which has led to a higher amount of deflections at the line of scrimmage than most college quarterbacks, a number that figures to rise at the next level. It also makes it tough for him to read the defense downfield. He’s been able to get by in college at 6-0 because so much of his game is on short screens and other short routes, where he’s been able to display his phenomenal accuracy and decision making, but at the next level, he will have to throw downfield.
Further hindering his ability to throw downfield is his arm strength. Both Brees and Vick have above average arms despite their height, but Moore does not. His deep balls are typically wobbly and will get picked at the next level as he’ll be asked to throw downfield more and as more defensive backs are real ball hawks. Moore also doesn’t take a lot of under center snaps and a fumble on an under center snap in this game won’t help his stock, though this is far from a major concern for me. He can obviously learn how to take an under center snap. It’s not that hard. The footwork associated with under center snaps should come with time too.
At the end of the day, despite his great college numbers and win-loss record, Moore is still a mid to late round prospect. He doesn’t pass the eye ball test and he doesn’t have the skills necessary to be a great NFL quarterback. It’s unfortunately because he has such great accuracy, decision making, and football savvy and he’s a winner so I hate to bet against him, but I’d say more likely than not he’s a career backup at the next level. He will probably go in the mid to late rounds, but a good Senior Bowl and pre-draft season could push his stock into the day 2 range as it did for Andy Dalton last year. It certainly helps Moore than Dalton is doing a good job in the NFL as a rookie. I was wrong about Dalton and I hope I’m wrong about Moore, but I don’t think I am.
Moore isn’t the only prospect on Boise State’s offense, which performed very well. Moore went 26 of 34 for 293 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 picks, but running back Doug Martin might have been their most impressive offensive player in this one. Now fully healthy after an injury that ailed him earlier in the season and lowered his numbers, Martin ran for 151 yards and a score on 31 carries. He did this with hardnosed running and excelled both with and without great blocking. He also did that without a gain of longer than 21 yards, which shows that he was a consistent performer who routinely picked up solid yardage. He also caught 3 passes and returned the opening kickoff to the house.
Martin struggled earlier in the season, but finished the year with 4 straight games of 110 yards or more, giving him 7 such games on the season. He rushed for 1299 yards and 16 scores on 263 carries after 1260 yards and 12 scores on 201 carries in 2010. He also caught 28 passes in each of the last two seasons. The 5-9 215 pound back doesn’t have great speed and is a power back more than a speed back and could post a poor 40 time, but he’s a tough hardnosed runner and a bowling ball who is tough to bring down in the open field because has a strong lower body and runs with great pad level. When healthy, he’s a very talented back and could be a steal for an NFL team in the 3rd to 4th round range if he can stay healthy at the next level.
Blocking for both Martin and Moore is Boise State left tackle Nate Potter, who could get drafted higher than either of them. The 6-5 300 pound Potter had a great game in pass protection once again as he has all season, which had allowed Moore to frequently have a clean pocket and take only 7 sacks on the season. He was near flawless in pass protection against an admittedly weak Arizona State defensive line in this one, but became relatively useless on their final, run heavy drive. They didn’t run a lot of plays behind him in this game and he struggled to get consistent push as a run blocker. He’s an athletic player with great feet, but he really lacks functional strength at the point of attack which is not just a worry going forward as a run blocker, but it leaves him very susceptible to be bull rushed by a stronger defensive lineman as a pass protector at the next level.
Potter would be best in zone blocking scheme, but is not a complete enough player to get anything higher than a 2nd round grade from me. The 2nd round is where he figures to go in April, but we’ve seen teams willing to reach for offensive tackles before and Potter benefits from an offensive tackle class that doesn’t have another clear first round caliber prospect after Kalil, Martin, and Reiff. If he’s the 4th offensive tackle off the board, he could go in the late first round to the right team.
Boise State dominated this game defensively too and played even better than the 24 points they allowed would suggest. Arizona State returned a kickoff for a touchdown and also scored 10 points in garbage time. Discounting those 17 points, Boise allowed just 7 points in this game and it started upfront. Boise State has a very talented senior defensive line which could send 3 or 4 players to the NFL, including two as fairly high picks.
Those two high picks were defensive end Shea McClellin and defensive tackle Billy Winn. Both had great games as Boise State allowed -11 yards rushing on 21 carries (including sacks). McClellin finished the season with 50 tackles, 12.5 for loss, and 7.5 sacks. He lined up at both defensive end and linebacker for this team and at 6-3 257 figures to go day 2 as a 3-4 rush linebacker in April. Winn can play either the 3-4 or the 4-3. The 6-4 288 pound defensive tackle had 33 tackles, 8 for loss, and 3 sacks on the season and figures to also go day 2.
Two borderline prospects in this game, defensive end Tyrone Crawford and defensive tackle Chase Baker, both had great games as well. Crawford is the more likely of the two to get drafted. The 6-4 275 pound senior end had 44 tackles, 13.5 for loss, and 6.5 sacks opposite McClellin this season, but benefited from McClellin and Winn drawing pressure away from him. He also is not as expected as Winn or McClellin. Baker is going to have a tougher time getting drafted, but he too had a great game here. The 6-1 295 pound defensive tackle had 22 tackles, 2.5 for loss, and 0.5 sacks on the season.
Boise’s back 7 wasn’t nearly as good as Arizona State’s talented junior quarterback Brock Osweiler did complete 30 of 47 for 395 yards, 2 scores, and an interception. The 6-8 Osweiler is the tallest quarterback in Division I and had a fantastic first season as a starter completing 63.2% of his passes for an average of 7.8 YPA and 26 touchdowns to 13 interceptions. He could end up being a high pick in 2013. His height and great arm will remind some of Joe Flacco and make him a hot commodity on draft day, especially if he improves some on his numbers and leads Arizona State to a great season in 2012, which he is capable of doing.
The best draft prospect in Boise’s back 7 is George Iloka, a 6-3 215 pound defensive back who lined up at both safety and cornerback in this one, but figures to be just a safety at the next level. Iloka didn’t show up on the stat sheet much, in fact, he was credited with just one tackle, but he had a great tackle for loss on a short pass in the backfield and looked good in coverage throughout the game. Arizona State wide receiver Gerell Robinson was shredding them all game, the only one really having a great game for Arizona State, but Iloka did a good job in coverage on Robinson one on one on occasion, as well as helping as Robinson went over the middle, which he did often. Robinson caught 13 passes for 241 yards and a score, but most of that was away from Iloka.
On the season, Iloka had 58 tackles, 3 for loss, and a deflection, with no picks, though he does have 5 career interceptions. I would have liked to have seen him make more tackles in this game, but he did still have a solid game regardless and a solid season and career statistically. The 6-3 215 pounder is a good athlete and figures to be a mid round pick as either a free safety or strong safety at the next level.
Now onto Robinson, who had a phenomenal game. I saw Robinson against USC and against Missouri earlier this season, spotlighting him against Missouri, and was not impressed with him in either of those games. However, he’s a great athlete at 6-4 225 with 4.4-4.5 speed and the light really seems to have clicked for him down the stretch as he caught 58 passes for 1034 yards and 4 touchdowns in the last 8 games alone, finishing with 77 catches for 1397 yards and 7 scores on the season. He’s a physical receiver who run blocks extremely well and is not afraid to go over the middle. He can be a solid possession receiver at the next level with some deep ability and good open field ability, but he’s relatively unknown so he could end up being a steal for some team in the mid rounds. I’m interested to see how he looks in the Senior Bowl, should he choose to attend.
The player who could get drafted highest from either of these two teams is a player who had a very minimal impact in this game, Arizona State middle linebacker Vontaze Buflict. The 6-3 250 pound linebacker came into the season as a potential top 10 pick, but he’s fallen out of favor with the Arizona State coaching staff due to attitude problems both on and off the field. He didn’t get the start in this one and barely played, finishing with 1 tackle.
Rather than trying to rebuild his image with a new coaching staff coming in, Burfict has decided to declare early for the NFL Draft, despite a down year, and time will tell if that ends up being the right move. The junior finished his disappointing season with 69 tackles, 7 for loss, 5 sacks, and 3 deflections. He’s got amazing talent so someone could still take him late in the first, but at the same time he could slip into day 2.
Football Fan Spot 