2012 Offensive Tackles

Stephen Hill’s upside is off the charts, but no one wanted to take the risk in the 1^st round. He won’t last long in the 2^nd round. The Rams are building for the future with 2 first round picks in 2013 and 2014. They desperately need wide receiver help for Sam Bradford and they can afford to wait on Hill. If the Rams don’t take Hill here, I think someone will. The Rams have reportedly gotten several offers for the pick from teams interested in Hill (including Cleveland) so the Rams could trade down again.

34. Indianapolis Colts- TE Coby Fleener (Stanford)

This pick makes too much sense. Andrew Luck will be thrilled if they give him his former college teammate to throw to. Brody Eldridge is tops on their tight end depth chart. He has 26 catches in college and the NFL combined. Besides, of the last 19 teams to take a quarterback in the first round, 15 of them took an offensive player with their next pick.

35. Baltimore Ravens- G Cordy Glenn (Georgia)

A lot of people mocked Peter Konz to the Ravens at 29, but Peter King doesn’t see him as a fit. Maybe they don’t see him as a good fit at guard. Cordy Glenn is a more natural fit.

36. Denver Broncos- DT Jerel Worthy (Michigan State)

I had Jerel Worthy to the Broncos in the first round in my final mock so I’ll keep him to them here now that they’ve traded down twice.

37. Cleveland Browns- OT Jonathan Martin (Stanford)

I mentioned Jonathan Martin as an option at 22 in the first to the Browns. They’ll certainly consider him here at 37. They’ve brought him in for a personal workout and they need a new right tackle after cutting Tony Pashos this offseason. Besides, of the last 19 teams to take a quarterback in the first round, 15 of them took an offensive player with their next pick.

38. Jacksonville Jaguars- DE Courtney Upshaw (Alabama)

A lot of people had Melvin Ingram mocked to the Jaguars in the first round and, if they had stayed at 7, he might have been the pick. Courtney Upshaw is a similar player, albeit generally viewed as an inferior prospect.

39. St. Louis Rams- RB Lamar Miller (Miami)

The Rams had interest in Trent Richardson early and still could move Steven Jackson this weekend. The soon to be 29 year old is on his last legs and wants a new contract. Building for the future, they can’t afford to give that to him. Miller is much younger and cheaper and someone they brought in for a private workout.

40. Carolina Panthers- WR Rueben Randle (LSU)

Steve Smith may have just gotten a new deal, but he’s not getting any younger at 33 years of his age this offseason. They don’t have a lot of depth at the position behind him and could bring in Randle to develop as a starter long term.

41. Buffalo Bills- OT Mike Adams (Ohio State)

The Bills passed on a first round tackle because they didn’t see any tackle other than Matt Kalil worth the 10^th overall pick. The rest of the league agreed as only 2 tackles went in the first round. That means the Bills should be able to get one of the other 3 highly rated tackles they’ve worked out, Jonathan Martin, Cordy Glenn, and Mike Adams, in the 2^nd round. Adams is the only one left.

42. Miami Dolphins- OT Bobby Massie (Mississippi)

As I keep repeating, of the last 19 teams to take a quarterback in the first round, 15 of them took an offensive player with their next pick. Bobby Massie would certainly count for the Dolphins. Right tackle Marc Colombo has retired after a season in which he allowed 9 sacks. Massie has worked out privately with the Dolphins.

43. Seattle Seahawks- MLB Zach Brown (North Carolina)

I have no idea. After the Seahawks picked Bruce Irvin in the 1^st round, I tweeted “First James Carpenter, now Bruce Irvin. note to self: when mocking players to the Seahawks, draw names out of a hat.” Brown isn’t quite that, but they need a middle linebacker and Pete Carroll seems to enjoy coaching up players. Brown has 1^st round talent, but 7^th round attitude.

44. Kansas City Chiefs- C Peter Konz (Wisconsin)

I had David DeCastro at 11 for the Chiefs. They didn’t take him, but I think they still want to fix the interior of their offensive line. Konz is too good to pass on here. They drafted Rodney Hudson in the 2^nd round last year to play center, but either Hudson or Konz could play guard.

45. St. Louis Rams- G Amini Silatolu (Midwestern State)

The Rams seem to be satisfied with Rodger Saffold and Jason Smith at tackle. Both played really badly last season, but they’re young and they both played through injury. Silatolu fills a huge need at guard, however, as Jacob Bell is gone as a free agent after a horrible year last season.

46. Philadelphia Eagles- CB Janoris Jenkins (North Alabama)

Jenkins would be a 3^rd cornerback to replace Asante Samuel. He’d be a better fit on the slot than Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and, if he pans out, he could form a formidable cornerback duo with Nnamdi Asomugha on the outside if they decide to let Rodgers-Cromartie walk in a contract year next season.

47. New York Jets- WR Alshon Jeffery (South Carolina)

The Jets needed wide receiver help before they lost Plaxico Burress this offseason. Alshon Jeffery can be a younger version of Burress for them as a possession receiver compliment to Santonio Holmes. They worked him out privately.

48. New England Patriots- DT Kendall Reyes (Connecticut)

The Patriots probably won’t stay put with both of their 2 2^nd round picks as they have no picks after the 2^nd round and only 5 picks next year. If they stay here, they’d be thrilled if Kendall Reyes fell to them. They need defensive tackle help and some mocked him to them in the first round.

49. San Diego Chargers- G Kelechi Osemele (Iowa State)

The Chargers seem satisfied with their starting 5 on the offensive line, but that unit is not without questions. Jared Gaither can’t stay healthy and Jerome Clary and Tyronne Green really struggled last season. Osemele is a versatile 6^th offensive lineman for them who will probably have to step into the starting lineup at some point next season.

50. Chicago Bears- OLB Lavonte David (Nebraska)

The Bears continue to add youth to their front 7. They have all kinds of injuries and age in their linebacking corps. David is an ideal fit for their cover 2 scheme.

51. Philadelphia Eagles- QB Kirk Cousins (Michigan State)

The Eagles are looking at a bunch of young quarterbacks. They don’t have a good backup for Michael Vick, who always gets hurt at least once per year. Vick is also 32 this offseason and might not age well considering his history of injuries and reliance on his legs, normally the first thing to go on an athlete. Cousins can be a young backup and maybe eventual replacement.

52. Tennessee Titans- DT Devon Still (Penn State)

Of the 32 players they’ve worked out privately, they’re almost all wide receivers, cornerbacks, defensive ends, defensive tackles, and linebackers and almost all highly rated players. They’ve only worked out 2 offensive linemen. It’s possible Mike Munchak, a former offensive lineman and offensive line coach, will think he can coach up mid to late rounders at the positions. Devon Still is someone they’ve worked out and he’d definitely count as best available here.

53. Cincinnati Bengals- S Trumaine Johnson (Montana)

After taking a cornerback and a guard in the first round, safety is now the Bengals’ biggest need. Unfortunately, this is a very thin safety class. They will have to address the position very soon, probably in the 2^nd round, and they may have to do it by converting a big cornerback like Trumaine Johnson.

54. Atlanta Falcons- DE Andre Branch (Clemson)

John Abraham is 34 in May and he had 9.5 of their 33 sacks. Ray Edwards didn’t do anything in the first year of his deal. Defensive end is a still a big need of theirs and Andre Branch is someone they’ve brought in for a workout. He’s also a good value at this point.

55. Detroit Lions- DE Vinny Curry (Marshall)

Defensive end might not be their biggest need, but defensive tackle wasn’t their biggest need in 2011 when they took Nick Fairley. Same thing with running back and wide receiver in the 2^nd round in 2011 when they took Mikel Leshoure and Titus Young. They draft for best available and Curry definitely counts. Besides, this could become a need if they cut Kyle Vanden Bosch, who turns 34 in November, or if they can’t come to a long term deal with Cliff Avril. At the very least, Curry can be a successor for Vanden Bosch.

56. Pittsburgh Steelers- MLB Mychal Kendricks (California)

The Steelers didn’t take Dont’a Hightower in the first round because David DeCastro was an unbelievable value. However, there’s a reason he was so frequently mocked there. After cutting James Farrior, they have a real need at middle linebacker. Kendricks won’t have to play right away behind Larry Foote, but Foote will be a 33 year old free agent next offseason.

57. Denver Broncos- CB Josh Robinson (UCF)

The Broncos have a need at cornerback both in the short term and long term. They need another cornerback to go with Champ Bailey and Tracy Porter next year, after cutting Andre Goodman this offseason. Long term, Porter is only on a one year deal and Bailey will be 35 next offseason.

58. Houston Texans- WR Brian Quick (Appalachian State)

The Texans didn’t take a wide receiver in the first round even though they were commonly expected to. They’ll likely address the position on day 2 as Andre Johnson is getting up there in age and Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones just aren’t that good.

59. Green Bay Packers- 3-4 DE Derek Wolfe (Cincinnati)

Even after adding one pass rusher in the first round, the Packers still could use another pass rusher. Jarius Wynn and Ryan Pickett are pretty mediocre players and Ryan Pickett and Mike Neal can’t stay healthy. Neal was also suspended 4 games and could be cut. There’s a reason they only had 29 sacks last year. They’ll love Derek Wolfe’s motor.

60. Baltimore Ravens- MLB Bobby Wagner (Utah State)

Ray Lewis turns 37 in May. He’ll be back next season and even if his play never actually declines, someday he’ll decide the next stop for him is Canton. Bobby Wagner is someone they’ve brought in for a personal visit.

61. San Francisco 49ers- G Brandon Brooks (Miami-OH)

Many expected the 49ers to take a guard in the first round, but that didn’t happen. They’ll likely be targeting guards in the 2^nd round.

62. New England Patriots- CB Brandon Boykin (Georgia)

Again, they’ll try to trade down at least once in the 2^nd round as they don’t have any picks after this. However, I’m not mocking trades and I doubt the Patriots will come away from this draft without taking some kind of defensive back at some point.

63. New York Giants- TE Dwayne Allen (Clemson)

The Giants passed on Coby Fleener in the 1^st round because they like tight ends who are good blockers. Dwayne Allen is a better blocker, which explains why they’ve met privately with him. He wasn’t asked to block a lot at Clemson, but when he did, he showed the ability to do so. He’s got the frame and strength to develop into a better blocker. Of the top tight ends, Allen is the best blocker so he makes a lot of sense for them.

Go on to 3rd round

2012 NFL Mock Draft

May 12, 2012 stevenlourie Uncategorized

1-16 17-32

Updated 4/26/12

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1. Indianapolis Colts- QB Andrew Luck (Stanford)

Not much to say here. The Colts have already announced Andrew Luck as the pick.

Other options:

None: There is no other option. Andrew Luck will be the pick.

2. Washington Redskins- QB Robert Griffin (Baylor)

He hasn’t been formally announced as the selection, but I would be very, very, very surprised if they took anyone other than Griffin. They didn’t trade up not to get a quarterback.

Other options:

None: There is no other option. Robert Griffin will be the pick.

3. Minnesota Vikings- OT Matt Kalil (USC)

Everyone and their dog has had Matt Kalil here since the Redskins traded up for Griffin…everyone except Adam Schefter. Schefter has maintained all along that the Vikings are looking at all their options here and really like 3 players, Kalil, Justin Blackmon, and Morris Claiborne equally, even going as far as to say that Kalil only has a 28.3% chance of being the pick (don’t know where he got that number). Schefter is almost also right, but I’ve maintained for weeks that he’s wrong simply because there wasn’t anyone else who agreed with him.

Now people are starting to agree with him. ESPN Minnesota’s Tom Pelissero reported a few days ago that there is something to the Claiborne to the Vikings rumors and Bob Sansevere of the St. Paul Pioneer press has said that he would be “surprised” if the Vikings took Kalil. Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier said earlier this week that he didn’t see left tackles as offensive “game changers” because they don’t score points (what?!) and both Todd McShay and Mel Kiper have Claiborne here in their mocks. GM Rick Spielman has maintained all along that they like all 3 players at that spot.

I’m just going to come out and say it: the Vikings would be morons to take Claiborne. The main reason for that is that they just spent the 12^th overall pick on a quarterback, one that was considered a reach. Why reach for a quarterback if you don’t plan on giving him every chance to succeed and giving yourself every chance to evaluate him?

The Vikings aren’t going to win very many games this season no matter what they do here. But Kalil at least gives them a chance to be able to know in 12 months time whether or not Ponder is the right guy going forward. You simply can’t accurately evaluate a quarterback who has no offensive supporting cast. You can’t. Blackmon makes some sense in this regard and I wouldn’t hate that pick, but Kalil is a better player at a position of higher value.

Besides, both this wide receiver class and this cornerback class are extremely deep this year, whereas the left tackle class is not. It’ll be a lot easier to find a wide receiver or cornerback in the 2^nd or 3^rd round than a left tackle and they do need all 3. If they were to take Claiborne, he’d be the first cornerback to go in the top 3 since 1997 and he’s nowhere near good enough to get that honor.

He’s a good cornerback, but there’s a Morris Claiborne in every draft. There may be a Matt Kalil most drafts too, but Matt Kalils go in the top 3 way more often than cornerbacks. There have been 6 offensive tackles to go in the top 3 since the last time a cornerback went there (5 wide receivers). Furthermore, elite cornerbacks are frequently available in free agency. Elite left tackles never are.

Teams want to lock these guys down because, outside of quarterback, there isn’t a more important position. Every position always has some elite guys hit the free agency market…except quarterback and left tackle. And the two positions with the highest average salary and franchise tag…you guessed it, quarterback and left tackle. Finally, the Vikings are a cover 2 team so cornerbacks shouldn’t have as much value to them. That’s kind of the whole point of a cover 2 system.

So what am I getting at? While the Vikings may be considering all of their options here and while they may be perfectly fine and moving down to somewhere they can get one of the 3, I think if they stay put, Kalil is the guy. I think all of the Claiborne love by them has been smokescreening and that Kalil is the leader in their clubhouse (maybe not by a lot, but the leader). I wouldn’t rule out someone moving up here to grab Richardson, but gun to my head, I say the Vikings stay put and take Kalil. The Vikings can’t possibly be that stupid. Right? Right?

Other options:

CB Morris Claiborne (LSU): I go into detail above, but Claiborne is definitely an option here.

WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State): The other option for the Vikings here.

RB Trent Richardson (Alabama): Only if they trade out. Richardson might be the best non-quarterback in this draft class, but with Adrian Peterson, the Vikings have absolutely no use for him.

4. Cleveland Browns- RB Trent Richardson (Alabama)

There’s 4 options here for the Browns, Richardson, Ryan Tannehill, Justin Blackmon, and Morris Claiborne. I’m going to eliminate two of those guys right away. I can’t see them going Claiborne because he’s a defensive player. Their defense wasn’t that bad last year, but their offense was absolutely miserable. It’s completely devoid of play makers. I’m also going to rule out Tannehill. I list Tannehill because if you’re in love with the quarterback Tannehill, you take him here at 4. But everything I’m hearing says they aren’t. They sound more interested in adding Brandon Weeden later in the draft.

So that leaves Richardson and Blackmon. There’s some evidence for Blackmon. Cleveland Plain Dealer’s Mary Kay Cabot, who knows the Browns well, is saying this will be Blackmon and just today Mike Mayock, who is always tuned in on these things, mocked Blackmon here, though he acknowledged Richardson would be the best decision. However, Mike Holmgren is calling a lot of the shots here in Cleveland and in his 7 drafts in Seattle, he didn’t take a receiver before the 5^th round. Most people agree that Richardson will be the pick here and I’m sticking with chalk and putting Richardson here.

Other options:

QB Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M): If they’re in love with Tannehill, they’ll take him. That just doesn’t sound that likely anymore.

WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State): Only because Mary Kay Cabot has had him here for forever and she is pretty knowledgeable on the Browns. Mike Holmgren has never put value on the wide receiver position, but he’s not the only one with a say.

CB Morris Claiborne (LSU): Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer came out of nowhere today to say Claiborne would be the pick here. But no one else seems to agree and I’d be shocked if they didn’t do something to fix their offense here.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- CB Morris Claiborne (LSU)

Staying chalk here. The Buccaneers have their eyes on two players, Trent Richardson and Morris Claiborne. Unless Minnesota does something to screw everything up, they’ll get a chance to take one of those two here. If Minnesota goes Claiborne and Cleveland goes Richardson, the Buccaneers then have a dilemma. Do they take BPA in Matt Kalil even though it’s not their biggest need? Or do they reach for a defensive player like Luke Kuechly or Fletcher Cox?

The most logical choice in that scenario is to move down to 10 with Buffalo, picking up an extra 2^nd round pick in the process. Buffalo would then take Kalil. Reports said earlier today that the Bills would be fine parting with their 2^nd rounder if it meant getting Kalil. That might not to get them to #3, but it’d probably be enough to get them up to #5.

Anyway, the Vikings make the right choice in this scenario so the choice is easy for the Buccaneers. They’ll just take whoever Cleveland doesn’t. They’re probably preferring Richardson and may even jump Cleveland to 3 to take him, but they’ll be fine with Claiborne even how bad their defense was last year. They had the 2^nd worst pass defense in the league in terms of YPA. Eric Wright alone doesn’t fix that.

Other options:

MLB Luke Kuechly (Boston College): Only if Claiborne and Richardson are gone and they can’t move down.

DT Fletcher Cox (Mississippi State): In the aforementioned scenario, Cox would make sense too, though Kuechly fills a bigger need.

6. St. Louis Rams- WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State)

And more chalk. St. Louis is probably going to end up with Blackmon one way or another. It’s highly unlikely he goes before 6. They may be a candidate to move up to 3 to grab Richardson, who they reportedly love, which would make Steven Jackson, who just demanded a new contract, available through trade. Even if that happens, Blackmon is a likely choice here for Minnesota assuming Kalil is off the board. No matter what happens in the top 5, I like Blackmon at 6 to someone.

The consensus is that there are 6 blue chip prospects in this draft class and Blackmon is the last of the 6. That’s the reason the Rams were so willing to move down to 6, but had some concerns about moving down to 8 in a trade with the Miami Dolphins, who were also interested in moving up to 2 for Robert Griffin. Blackmon is an ideal fit for the Rams, whose leading returning receivers from last season are Brandon Gibson and Danario Alexander.

Other options:

DT Fletcher Cox (Mississippi State): I’ve seen some mocks with him here, but Sam Bradford might just retire if they don’t use this pick on an offensive player. Stupider things have been done before and with so many needs, they’ll be going solely by their board, which could have him first.

QB Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M): Obviously not to St. Louis, but they’ve traded down with a quarterback needy team before and they have so many needs that they wouldn’t mind doing it again. The trick is getting a taker.

7. Philadelphia Eagles (TRADE)- DT Fletcher Cox (Mississippi State)

Here’s where the draft gets interesting. The top 6 prospects in this draft, in some order, are Luck, Griffin, Kalil, Richardson, Claiborne, and Blackmon. Those 6 are almost definitely going to go, in some order, in picks 1-6. The Jaguars are the ones with the bad luck as they’re picking 7^th. There’s a chance someone like Blackmon falls to them and I think they’d pounce in that scenario, but that’s not the case here. It’s no surprise the Jaguars are desperately trying to trade down.

Another reason why the Jaguars are trying to move down is that their needs don’t match what’s available here. This is going to be an offensive heavy draft in the top 6 (5 of the top 6 could easily be offensive players). The Jaguars desperately need an offensive player. Their defense is fine. It’s not without needs, but it’s fine. There just isn’t an offensive player worth taking at this point because of an early run on offense.

Their offense is a mess around Blaine Gabbert. Like Minnesota, they need an offensive player so that they can properly evaluate Blaine Gabbert. All of the offensive players would probably be reaches at this point, except maybe Michael Floyd, but the Jaguars like clean character guys and Floyd was almost kicked off the Notre Dame football team for alcohol issues.

So who moves up? How about Philadelphia? They are never shy about moving up on draft day and with 2 2^nd round picks, they have the ammunition to do so once more. They also reportedly love Mississippi State’s Fletcher Cox, but he won’t here there for them at 15. So they trade up and grab a fast rising prospect who would be a perfect fit at defensive tackle next to Cullen Jenkins in their wide 9 defensive scheme.

Other options:

DE Melvin Ingram (South Carolina): If the Jaguars stay put, I think Ingram is the pick over Gilmore. They reportedly love Gilmore, but if so why are they so desperate to trade down with a team like Kansas City? Gilmore could easily be gone by then. Sounds like a bit of a smokescreen.

CB Stephon Gilmore (South Carolina): Gilmore is obviously the other option for Jacksonville here.

QB Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M): Not to Jacksonville, obviously, but Philadelphia has interest in him. Maybe they trade up and take Tannehill over Cox, but I doubt it. Some other quarterback needy team like Kansas City or Seattle (or Miami just to make sure no one else moves up), could move to 7 to take Tannehill. Again, I doubt it.

8. Miami Dolphins- QB Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M)

There’s some chatter than the Dolphins are not as interested in Tannehill as once believed. I don’t think that’s quite true and I would be very shocked if they passed on Tannehill. Owner Stephen Ross not so secretly loves him and it makes sense. After whiffing on every available quarterback this offseason, he needs something to get the fan base excited. GM Jeff Ireland may defy him and take someone else, but he’s doing that at his own risk. Ireland is in a contract year and may find himself out of a job if he defies the owner and it doesn’t have immediate results.

The fit in Miami is natural for Tannehill. They need a franchise savior, but they have two stopgap quarterbacks who can play immediately so Tannehill won’t be rushed out there. They also have a decent supporting cast and their offensive coordinator is Mike Sherman, who was Tannehill’s head coach at Texas A&M. This will greatly shorten his learning curve as he won’t have to learn a new system.

Other options:

DE Melvin Ingram (South Carolina): Miami interestingly has never worked out Tannehill privately. Maybe it’s because of Mike Sherman’s familiarity with him and it’s worth noting that the Dolphins didn’t work out any of their top picks from 2011. However, what if they pass? In that case, Ingram, who they have worked out, makes a lot of sense as they try to get a 2^nd pass rusher for their hybrid scheme.

DE Quinton Coples (North Carolina): Miami Herald’s Jeff Darlington mentioned Coples as the likely selection if they pass on Tannehill. I see him as a bit of a reach at this point.

WR Michael Floyd (Notre Dame): Whoever the quarterback is will need someone to throw to. They’ve also worked out Floyd.

S Mark Barron (Alabama): Barron is a rising prospect and Mike Mayock floated his name as a possibility in this spot if they pass on Tannehill.

9. New York Jets (TRADE)- RLB Melvin Ingram (South Carolina)

I’ve had Fletcher Cox here since February when everyone said this was too high. Now it appears this is too low. This is probably his floor on draft day. His name has been floated around as a possibility at 5 and 6, though that’s a little rich. 7 to a team trading up (or Jacksonville themselves) makes a lot more sense, but Carolina will take him if he’s still here, still a possibility.

If not, well they have a few options of defensive players. Quinton Coples and Melvin Ingram would give them a bookend defensive end opposite Charles Johnson, Luke Kuechly would give them the draft’s best linebacker and fill a position of need, and Stephon Gilmore, a rising prospect, would fill a need at cornerback. However, they don’t have a 3^rd round pick so they’ll probably want to trade down and grab a defensive player later in the first round.

So who would want to move up to this spot? How about the Jets? Like the Eagles, they’re never shy about moving up. There’s some speculation about them moving up for Trent Richardson, but that’s a little out there. Melvin Ingram, who they love, is another option they could move up for. They give up their 2^nd rounder to do so, but they add a much needed edge rusher and a player they love.

Other options:

CB Stephon Gilmore (South Carolina): If the Panthers stay put, Gilmore is an obvious option for them given their 32^nd ranked pass defense in 2011.

MLB Luke Kuechly (Boston College): The Panthers could use another starting linebacker and Kuechly might be best available.

DE Quentin Coples (North Carolina): Coples is another option as they seek to boost their pass rush opposite Charles Johnson. He could also play inside on passing downs.

10. Buffalo Bills- CB Stephon Gilmore (South Carolina)

The Bills really need a left tackle, which is why they have interest in moving up for Matt Kalil. However, if that doesn’t happen, they probably won’t take a first round tackle, unless they trade down (with a team interested in Barron perhaps). Reports say that don’t think any tackle other than Kalil is worth the 10^th overall pick and the only one who possibly could be, Riley Reiff, hasn’t even been to One Bills Drive for a visit. They always work out players they take, even CJ Spiller. Reiff hasn’t worked out with them, while Kalil, Jonathan Martin, Cordy Glenn, and Mike Adams have all had private workouts. They don’t seem interested in him.

So who do they take if not a left tackle? Stephon Gilmore, Mark Barron, and Luke Kuechly are the highest rated players that they’ve worked out and they’ve all been mentioned by credible sources as options at this point. Gilmore is probably the best of those 3, which is why I had him here in my last update. People in the know are swearing he won’t get out of the top 15, even the top 10. There was also a report today that Barron and Kuechly speculation here is “BS,” though you never know with these things. However, gun to my head, I’m picking Gilmore here.

Other options:

S Mark Barron (Alabama): Another guy they’ve worked out who fits the range, but I don’t see the need at all. Of course, these are the Bills. They didn’t need CJ Spiller either.

MLB Luke Kuechly (Boston College): Kuechly is someone else they’ve worked out and there’s been some talk of him going in the top 10. The Bills do need linebacker help.

WR Michael Floyd (Notre Dame): They haven’t worked him out, but they went after seemingly every free agent wide receiver this offseason.

11. Kansas City Chiefs- G David DeCastro (Stanford)

There are 4 options here. Luke Kuechly, David DeCastro, and Mark Barron are all great players at so called “luxury” positions. The Chiefs don’t have a lot of pressing needs so they could take any one of these 3 guys. Besides, they took a “luxury” position guy at 5 in 2010 when they took Eric Berry and they weren’t as well off in terms of scarcity of needs as they are now. Dontari Poe is an long shot option. He’d fill their biggest non-quarterback need, but he’d be a reach. I don’t think they necessarily take a nose tackle in the first round, but they’ll take one at some point in the first 3 rounds.

Mike Mayock has Mark Barron here, but I don’t see that making any sense because safety is really not a need. Kendrick Lewis does a fine job next to Eric Berry. You can say the same thing about middle linebacker and Luke Kuechly. Jovan Belcher does a fine job next to Derrick Johnson. Guard, however, is a bigger need.

It would also fit their offseason strategy of becoming a more physical team. They clearly want to lead the league in rushing again like they did in 2010 when they made the playoffs. They’ve signed a power running back (Peyton Hillis), a power blocking tight end (Kevin Boss), and a power blocking right tackle (Eric Winston). Now they get arguably the best run blocking guard prospect of the last decade. For my interview with David DeCastro, click here.

Other options:

MLB Luke Kuechly (Boston College): Kuechly is commonly mocked here. I just don’t get it. Kuechly and DeCastro are both luxury players and the Chiefs have the luxury to take either because they have so few needs, but guard is a bigger need than middle linebacker, where Derrick Johnson and Jovan Belcher do a fine job.

S Mark Barron (Alabama): The other “luxury” option for the Chiefs. Safety isn’t a need whatsoever, though.

NT Dontari Poe (Memphis): Maybe they fall in love with him. It’s certainly their biggest non-quarterback need.

12. Seattle Seahawks- MLB Luke Kuechly (Boston College)

David DeCastro might be one of the best guard prospects of the decade, but Luke Kuechly is one of the best middle linebacker prospects of the decade. Most in the know thing he’ll come off the board somewhere between 9 and 12. He’s an option to Carolina, Buffalo, and Kansas City, and I doubt Seattle will pass on him. They desperately need a new middle linebacker with David Hawthorne gone so unless the top pass rusher, Melvin Ingram, falls here, they’ll take Kuechly if he’s available.

Other options:

DE Quinton Coples (North Carolina): The Seahawks will take a front 7 player. Coples rushes the passer, which Kuechly doesn’t do, so that may put him ahead of Kuechly, but at the same time, I think Kuechly is the significantly better player.

DE Chandler Jones (Syracuse): The other pass rusher they’ll consider.

13. San Diego Chargers (TRADE): S Mark Barron (Alabama)

Mark Barron is a rising prospect. This is such a bad safety class and so many teams need safeties. Barron is by far the best one. There was a time when Mel Kiper called him a top-16 lock. Then it sounded unlikely he would get past Dallas at 14. Today Adam Schefter reported he wouldn’t even get there. He’s a rising prospect and a legitimate option at 8, 9, and 10. I’m following what the all mighty Schefter said and not letting him get to Dallas.

San Diego is a team that never does what you think they’ll do. Everyone thinks they’ll be taking a pass rusher, but you need to be on your toes when mocking players to this team. Last year they took Corey Liuget, even though he wasn’t seen as a great fit for their scheme. Two years ago they traded up many spots for Ryan Matthews. The year before that, they took Larry English even though they already had Shaun Phillips and Shawne Merriman at outside linebacker. The year before that, they took Antoine Cason even though they already had Antonio Cromartie and Quentin Jammer at cornerback. The year before that, they took Buster Davis, a 2^nd round prospect. And that’s just in the 1^st round.

There’s been some talk of them moving up for Mark Barron, and that would constitute as a surprise pick that would wreck mocks. If Barron falls out of the top 12, they’ll probably be working the phones hard to move ahead of Dallas for Barron. They’ve been searching for a new strong safety since Rodney Harrison left and this is a bad year for safeties. Arizona doesn’t have a 2^nd round pick, so they’d be more than willing to move down, especially since there isn’t a clear player to draft here.

Riley Reiff is the best available player at their biggest need, but Cordy Glenn is someone they reportedly like even better. Then there’s Michael Floyd, who could be tops on their board. He’s also someone Larry Fitzgerald has requested and they’ve followed his requests before (when they brought in Kolb). If they stay put, I think they’ll take Floyd for that reason, but I think they’ll try to move down.

Other options:

WR Michael Floyd (Notre Dame): As I just said, if they stay put, I think Floyd is the pick.

OT Riley Reiff (Iowa): They really need offensive line help.

OT Cordy Glenn (Georgia): Glenn helps fix their offensive line and might be higher on their board.

14. Dallas Cowboys- DT Michael Brockers (LSU)

I’ve had Dontari Poe here in recent weeks, but his stock is falling some of late. They also haven’t worked him out and they always work out their first round picks privately. There were a couple of reports a while ago that they loved him and one that said they hadn’t worked him out privately so they wouldn’t call attention to him, but there’s little buzz about Poe to the Cowboys so that’s not the pick here.

Dre Kirkpatrick, Courtney Upshaw, and Michael Brockers are all players they’ve worked out. Actually, this pick is pretty straight forward in my mind. If Barron is here, he’ll be the pick in a heartbeat. They worked him out privately. However, if he’s not, which he isn’t here, it sounds like it’ll be Michael Brockers as they try to get another impact player on their defensive line next to Jay Ratliff.

Other options:

NT Dontari Poe (Memphis): Jerry Jones spoke glowingly of Dontari Poe, but that may have been a smokescreen. He hasn’t worked him out privately, which he always does with first round picks, and there is no buzz about him here.

CB Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama): Kirkpatrick is another player they’ve worked out that would fit the range.

RLB Courtney Upshaw (Alabama): Copy and paste what I said above.

15. Jacksonville Jaguars (TRADE)- OT Riley Reiff (Iowa)

This is a better situation to be in for the Jaguars than 7. They desperately need an offensive player and there have only been two picked since their original spot at 7. They have a choice between two wide receivers, Kendall Wright and Michael Floyd, and an offensive tackle, Riley Reiff. Floyd might be the consensus best available, but he probably won’t high on Jacksonville’s board because of his off the field concerns. Meanwhile, Kendall Wright might be a reach here, though the Jaguars have done stranger things. That leaves Riley Reiff, who is a major upgrade over Guy Whimper at right tackle. Whimper allowed 14 sacks last year. Eben Britton stays at guard.

Other options:

WR Kendall Wright (Baylor): I think Wright would be the pick over Michael Floyd because he has cleaner character.

WR Michael Floyd (Notre Dame): Floyd still has an outside shot to be the pick.

16. Carolina Panthers (TRADE)- DE Quinton Coples (North Carolina)

Trading down works out pretty well for the Panthers. Quinton Coples will be considered at 9 as a bookend for Charles Johnson, but he’s a much better value at 16. They also have a chance to take Chandler Jones here, another highly rated defensive player they’ve worked out that would be a reach at 9, but I think Coples would be the pick over Jones.

Other options:

DE Chandler Jones (Syracuse): As I just said, Jones is an option here.

CB Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama): Cornerback is another need of theirs so Kirkpatrick is an option here.

WR Michael Floyd (Notre Dame): Floyd is someone else they’ve worked out. They have a bigger need on the defensive side of the ball, but Floyd could easily be BPA so they may just so ahead and take him. Steve Smith isn’t getting any younger.

Go on to 17-32

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2012 NFL Draft Rankings

May 12, 2012 stevenlourie News

Quarterbacks Updated 4/4/12

Running Backs Updated 4/4/12

Fullbacks Updated 4/4/12

Wide Receivers Updated 4/4/12

Tight Ends Updated 4/4/12

Offensive Tackles Updated 4/4/12

Guards Updated 4/4/12

Centers Updated 4/4/12

Defensive Ends Updated 4/4/12

Rush Linebackers Updated 4/4/12

Defensive Tackles Updated 4/4/12

Nose Tackles Updated 4/4/12

3-4 Defensive Ends Updated 4/4/12

Outside Linebackers Updated 4/4/12

Middle Linebackers Updated 4/4/12

Cornerbacks Updated 4/4/12

Safeties Updated 4/4/12

Kickers Updated 4/4/12

Punters Updated 4/4/12

2012 NFL Draft Big Board

May 12, 2012 stevenlourie Uncategorized

100 Once in a decade prospect
95-99 Elite talent
90-95 Solid top 10 pick
85-90 Solid first round pick
80-85 Late 1st-early 2nd
75-80 Solid 2nd round pick
70-75 Solid 3rd round pick
65-70 3rd-4th round pick
60-65 4th-5th round pick
55-60 5th round pick
50-55 6th round pick
45-50 7th round pick
40-45 Priority free agent