Year: 2012

Cincinnati Bengals: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Bengals

Last week: 26 (+0)

Record: 4-5

Did Andy Dalton beat his first playoff team last week? He might have, but I don’t think the Giants are going to be a playoff team when it’s all said and done (more on that later). If that doesn’t piss Bengals fans off enough, they’re still down here and my pick to be this year’s team that goes from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. Right now, every playoff team from last year has at least 4 wins. That means one of two things. We’re not going to have a team like that this year (only happened 1 other time in the last decade) or either Detroit, New Orleans, or Cincinnati is about to go 1-6 in their next 7 games.

I’m sticking with the latter for now. The Bengals still do not impress me, ranking just 20th in rate of sustaining drives differential, with an even yards per play differential. They’ll probably only be favored in 2 of their remaining 7 games, so it’s possible. That would mean that the Bengals will have to get upset by either the Chiefs or the Raiders in the next 2 weeks. Stay tuned for my week 11 NFL Picks later this week.

Studs

QB Andy Dalton: 21 of 30 for 199 yards and 4 touchdowns, 1 drop, 2 batted passes, 103.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 6 of 30 drop backs (2 of 6, 1 drop)

LT Andrew Whitworth: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 1 attempt

RG Kevin Zeitler: Did not allow a pressure on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 19 yards on 5 attempts

RT Andre Smith: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 2 attempts

WR AJ Green: Allowed 7 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 4.4 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Adam Jones: Allowed 6 catches for 53 yards on 10 attempts, 3 pass deflections, 5 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 punt returns for 77 yards

SS Nate Clements: Allowed 1 catch for 1 yard on 3 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle

DT Geno Atkins: 4 quarterback hits and 5 quarterback hurries on 40 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle

LE Carlos Dunlap: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 38 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 5 stops

P Kevin Huber: 4 punts for 193 yards, 2 inside 20, 2 returns for 28 yards, 41.3 net yards per punt

Duds

RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis: Rushed for 50 yards (29 after contact) on 15 attempts, 1 broken tackle, caught 2 passes for 8 yards on 2 attempts

TE Jermaine Gresham: Caught 3 passes for 15 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts on 23 pass snaps, 1.7 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

WR Brandon Tate: Did not catch a pass on 1 attempt on 15 pass snaps, 2 kickoff returns for 24 yards, 1 punt return for 7 yards, 2 fumbles

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New York Jets: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Jets

Last week: 27 (-2)

Record: 3-6

I’ve been wondering for a few weeks, at least, why Rex Ryan hadn’t benched Mark Sanchez for Tim Tebow. It didn’t make any sense to me why (assuming he had brought Tebow in to be an alternative to Mark Sanchez) he hadn’t swapped out Sanchez, who is completing 52% of his passes for a 3-6 team, for his alternative. Well, he answered that question this week by saying, “we never brought him on here to be the starting quarterback.”

I used to just think he was stubborn, but now it appears he is a full on moron. You spent a 4th round pick and you’re paying 2.5 million dollars to someone to protect the punter and get 3-5 random touches per game? What? Even the biggest Tebow hater would have to agree that investing all of those resources in him just for this purpose is pretty moronic. It appears Rex Ryan is sticking with Mark Sanchez as first mate on this sinking ship the rest of the way and the captain should go down with the ship as well. Rex Ryan deserves what’s probably coming to him at the end of the season. Hopefully they replace him with someone who will give Tebow a shot (or trade him someone like Jacksonville). Jon Gruden is rumored to be interested in returning to coaching and he might have the biggest Tebowner of all time.

Studs

LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson: Did not allow a pressure on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 attempts

LG Matt Slauson: Did not allow a pressure on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 16 yards on 4 attempts

RG Brandon Moore: Did not allow a pressure on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 2 attempts

RE Muhammad Wilkerson: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 22 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 3 assists, 4 stops

LE Mike DeVito: 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 19 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops

ROLB Bryan Thomas: 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 16 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

Duds

QB Mark Sanchez: 9 of 22 for 124 yards and an interception, 2 drops, 2 batted passes, 1 hit as thrown, 53.5 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 5 of 25 drop backs (3 sacks, 1 of 2, 1 hit as thrown)

RB Shonn Greene: Rushed for 58 yards (28 after contact) on 15 attempts, caught 1 pass for 5 yards on 1 attempt

FB Lex Hilliard: Caught 1 pass for 9 yards on 2 attempts, 1 drop, run blocked for 26 yards on 5 attempts, allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 2 pass block snaps, rushed for 0 yards (1 after contact) on 1 attempt

TE Dustin Keller: Caught 3 passes for 47 yards on 5 attempts on 23 pass snaps, 5.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to, 2 penalties

WR Stephen Hill: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 25 pass snaps

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Carolina Panthers: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers

Last week: 29 (+0)

Record: 2-7

Last week’s loss was only their 2nd loss by more than a touchdown all year. They aren’t to be overlooked the rest of the way. Cam Newton is obviously having a major sophomore slump, but for all of their offensive struggles, they’ve been noticeably improved defensively this year. They’re allowing 3 points per game fewer than they were last year and even more impressive is that they’re doing this with Jon Beason and Chris Gamble out.

In fact, since week 6, their first game without those two, they’re allowing just 21.4 points per game, thanks to guys like Luke Kuechly and Greg Hardy breaking out. The rookie Kuechly has really improved over the last few weeks, probably because he moved back to his collegiate position of middle linebacker from the outside, and is now a defensive player of the year candidate. It’ll be interesting to see if his emergence in the middle leads to Jon Beason (owed 6.5 million in 2013) getting cut. The man who gave him that ill advised massive contract, ex-GM Marty Hurney, has already been fired and all of his guaranteed money has been paid.

Studs

C Geoff Hangartner: Did not allow a pressure on 51 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 2 attempts

RG Jeff Byers: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 51 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

TE Greg Olsen: Caught 9 passes for 102 yards and 2 touchdowns on 10 attempts on 40 pass snaps, 5.6 YAC per catch, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 4 pass block snaps

LE Charles Johnson: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 pass deflection

MLB Luke Kuechly: 8 solo tackles, 3 assists, 5 stops, caught 2 passes for 38 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection

FS Sherrod Martin: Allowed 2 catches for 3 yards on 2 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

Duds

QB Cam Newton: 21 of 36 for 241 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, 1 throw away, 4 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 1 drop, pressured on 18 of 45 drop backs (7 sacks, 1 scramble, 2 of 10, 1 interception, 4 hit as thrown, 1 throw away)

LG Amini Silatolu: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 46 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 4 yards on 4 attempts

RT Byron Bell: Allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 4 attempts

RB Jonathan Stewart: Rushed for 31 yards (20 after contact) on 8 attempts, 1 broken tackle, 1 fumble, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 6 pass block snaps, caught 2 passes for 23 yards on 2 attempts

WR Brandon LaFell: Caught 4 passes for 29 yards on 5 attempts on 50 pass snaps, 6.5 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to, 1 penalty

WR Steve Smith: Caught 1 pass for 19 yards on 4 attempts on 39 pass snaps, 5.0 YAC per catch

WR Louis Murphy: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 26 pass snaps, 1 penalty

CB Captain Munnerlyn: Allowed 6 catches for 51 yards on 7 attempts, 1 penalty, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, 3 punt returns for 10 yards

CB Josh Thomas: Allowed 5 catches for 97 yards on 6 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

LOLB Thomas Davis: Allowed 4 catches for 25 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 2 missed tackle

DT Dwan Edwards: Did not record a pressure on 28 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

RE Frank Alexander: 1 quarterback hurry on 25 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Oakland Raiders: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 30 (+0)

Record: 3-6

The Raiders surrendered the biggest points total of the year last week in Baltimore and it was just as bad as it sounded. They allowed two special teams touchdowns (one off a fake field goal, one off a kick return) and blew two separate 4th downs thanks to botched quarterback/center exchanges. By the way, I don’t disagree with the Ravens decision to run up the score and go for the fake field goal. One, the Raiders had it coming to them after taunting the Ravens down by close to 30 points on the previous play. Two, I’ve always said, if you don’t want to get the score run up on you, don’t suck. It’s not unsportsmanlike. In fact, it’s more unsportsmanlike to cry because you can’t stop the other team. Three, the Ravens haven’t had a commanding win like that since week 1 so they needed it for morale.

Studs

LT Jared Veldheer: Did not allow a pressure on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 attempt

LG Cooper Carlisle: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 3 attempts

C Stefen Wisniewski: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for 28 yards on 10 attempts, 1 penalty

CB Michael Huff: Allowed 3 catches for 65 yards on 7 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 interception, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist

P Shane Lechler: 5 punts for 274 yards, 1 inside 20, 4 returns for 36 yards, 47.6 net yards per punt

Duds

RT Willie Smith: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps

ROLB Phillip Wheeler: Allowed 6 catches for 88 yards on 6 attempts, 2 penalties, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

LOLB Miles Burris: 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit on 12 blitzes, allowed 5 catches for 63 yards on 5 attempts

FS Matt Giordano: Allowed 3 catches for 51 yards and 2 touchdown on 5 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

DT Tommy Kelly: 1 quarterback hurry on 29 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 1-8

I’ve said all along that the Chiefs could be competitive and even win some games if they could avoid losing the turnover battle. They did exactly that last week and took Pittsburgh to overtime, ironically losing on a turnover, their only of the game. They played a very similar game to the Steelers and would have won if not for some costly special teams blunders and penalties, including one for excessive celebration on a touchdown that eventually got overturned and thus never really happened. Still, if they can avoid losing the turnover battle in a few of their games going forward, they can win at least one, which is why they aren’t dead last.

Studs

RB Jamaal Charles: Rushed for 100 yards (43 after contact) and a touchdown on 23 attempts, 1 broken tackle

RG Jon Asamoah: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 31 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts

CB Brandon Flowers: Allowed 3 catches for 14 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

LOLB Justin Houston: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

MLB Derrick Johnson: 11 solo tackles, 1 assist, 9 stops, allowed 4 catches for 28 yards on 4 attempts

ROLB Tamba Hali: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hits on 28 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

Duds

TE Steve Maneri: Was not thrown to on 5 pass snaps, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 5 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

WR Dexter McCluster: Caught 2 passes for 18 yards on 5 attempts on 22 pass snaps, 5.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops

LE Tyson Jackson: Did not record a pressure on 20 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

K Ryan Succop: 3 kickoffs, 1 touchback, 63.7 yards per kickoff, 27.3 opponent’s average starting distance, 2/3 FG (22, 46, missed from 33)

RB Shaun Draughn: 2 kickoff returns for 29 yards, 1 fumble

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 1-8

Still the worst team in the NFL. I think the Chiefs are more likely than they are to win another game the rest of the way. They rank dead last in both yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential. In yards per play differential, they are at -1.1. No one else is worse than -0.9. In rate of sustaining drives they are -14.8%, no one else is worse than -9.5%.

The Chiefs have much bigger turnover issues than they do. For all of his faults, Blaine Gabbert’s overly conservative style of play is not one that causes him to turn the ball over a ton. However, turnovers are much more inconsistent. If the Chiefs can avoid losing the turnover battle, they can be competitive, whereas the Jaguars have avoided losing the turnover battle (just -3 on the season) and have not been close to being competitive, as they have a league worst -119 points differential. The Chiefs almost knocked off the Steelers last week because they were able to avoid losing the turnover battle. If they happens a couple more times this year, they’ll win a game.

Studs

C Brad Meester: Did not allow a pressure on 59 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 4 attempts

SS Dawan Landry: Allowed 2 catches for 7 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception, 1 penalty, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

LE Austen Lane: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 15 pass rush snaps, 1 stop

DT Tyson Alualu: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 21 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

RE Jeremy Mincey: 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 23 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops

P Bryan Anger: 5 punts for 236 yards, 1 inside 20, 1 return for 12 yards, 44.8 net yards per punt

Duds

RB Rashad Jennings: Rushed for 27 yards (18 yards after contact) on 11 attempts, 1 broken tackle, did not catch a pass on 1 attempt

LG Mike Brewster: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 59 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 1 yard on 1 attempt

RT Cameron Bradfield: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 59 pass block snaps, 2 penalties

WR Justin Blackmon: Caught 3 passes for 25 yards on 5 attempts on 58 pass snaps, 2.3 YAC per catch, 1 penalty, allowed 1 sack on 1 pass block snap

CB Aaron Ross: Allowed 5 catches for 108 yards on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles

DT Terrence Knighton: 1 quarterback hurry on 14 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, no tackles

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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Ravens, Steelers

Baltimore Ravens (7-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)

Ben Roethlisberger is out for this one. How can the Steelers possibly beat the 7-2 Ravens? That’s the question that everyone seems to be asking this week and apparently no one can come up with an answer as the public is pounding Baltimore as road favorites here. However, as is often the case with the public on heavy leans, I think they’re going to be wrong. There is a simple answer to that question: they’ll beat them the same way they normally beat teams without Ben Roethlisberger.

Since he took over as starter full time during week 3 of 2004, Ben Roethlisberger has missed 13 games. The Steelers are 8-5 in those 13 games, a winning percentage of 62%. When he does play, they have a winning percentage of 70%. It’s a difference, but not a huge difference and that’s just at first glance. If we exclude overtime losses, the Steelers are 8-2 in games without Ben Roethlisberger as they’ve lost 3 of those 5 games in overtime. Going off that, none of those 5 losses has come by more than 6 points, including 3 losses that would have still covered this 3.5 point spread.

It’s true that they have lost 4 times to the Ravens without Ben Roethlisberger (why does he always miss these games?!), but by a combined 15 points, including 3 games decided by just a field goal. In the Joe Flacco era, both of the Ravens’ games against the Roethlisberger-less Steelers have been decided by 3 points, two final scores that would equal a Pittsburgh cover if they were to happen this week and these aren’t the same Ravens as they have been in the past (more on that later).

Overall without Roethlisberger, the Steelers are 9-4 ATS, including 4-0 ATS as dogs. This year’s defense might not be quite the same as their defenses have been in the past. After all, they’ve had a top-3 scoring defense in 6 of the last 8 seasons. They are missing Troy Polamalu. However, that being said, they rank 7th in opponent’s scoring and 1st in opponent’s yardage, so it’s not like their defense is playing badly. In fact, they’re playing very well. Besides, in the two seasons they did not have a top-3 defense, they still covered in both instances without Ben Roethlisberger.

It’s not just defense that’s winning them these games without Roethlisberger. The whole team seems to play better. They’re a prideful bunch and never roll over easy without Roethlisberger. Mike Tomlin (under whom they are 6-2 ATS without Roethlisberger) will have them playing for pride with everyone doubting them against a Ravens team that did beat them twice last year. They’ll definitely want revenge for those losses, in addition to wanting to shut up the critics.

Given all that, it’s ridiculous that the Steelers are +3.5 here at home. A week ago, this line was -5.5. Roethlisberger is good, but he’s certainly not worth 9 points. And even if Roethlisberger hadn’t gotten hurt and this line had stayed -5.5, I would have picked the Steelers. The rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Pittsburgh -7 and the yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Pittsburgh -4.5 and if you average those, you do get slightly higher than -5.5. Obviously, those two formulas don’t do a ton of good in a game where one team is missing a Pro-Bowl quarterback, but at the same time, this line should not have moved 9 full points.

The reason Pittsburgh deserved to be around -5.5 or -6 with Roethlisberger is that the Ravens are overrated. Before last week, this team had not won a single game by 10 or more since week 1 and only one was decided by more than a touchdown, 2 weeks ago at Cleveland, a game in which the lowly Browns actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, but frequently imploded in field goal range and had to settle for 5 field goals. During that stretch, they’ve had two less than stellar performances against the Browns, a 3 point road win against the lowly Chiefs, a near home loss to the Cowboys, and a blowout loss in Houston. Before last week, this team hadn’t done anything remotely impressive since a 31-30 home win against the Patriots week 3.

Their defense has been destroyed by injuries and ranks 27th in yards per game allowed, while the offense ranks just 17th, producing more than 40 yards per game less than their defense allows. Because of Joe Flacco’s inconsistencies, they remain a unit that cannot be relied on weekly to win the game for them if the defense isn’t playing well.

Even in last week’s blowout win over the Ravens, they got outgained. They rank just 8th in yards per play differential and 18th in rate of sustaining drives differential. They’re pretty overrated right now and would have deserved to be dogs of 6 or so in Pittsburgh with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger on the Steelers’ side. They certainly don’t deserve to be 3.5 point favorites in Pittsburgh with the Steelers missing Roethlisberger. For reference, they were -3.5 in Cleveland two weeks ago and had trouble covering the spread. You can’t tell me the Steelers are equal to the Browns now.

Aside from that, the Steelers are in a good spot, part of why I would have taken them even had Roethlisberger not gotten hurt and had the line stayed put. Teams are 10-3 ATS after a home overtime win as double digit favorites since 1989. Meanwhile, teams are 32-24 ATS off a home win of 3 or fewer as double digit dogs. Almost losing as big favorites tends to serve as just as good of a wakeup call as actually losing. Mike Tomlin is 17-10 ATS off a loss and 25-18 ATS off a game in which the Steelers failed to cover. He’s also 5-3 ATS in divisional revenge games and, as I mentioned, the Ravens beat the Steelers twice last year.

In addition to all of those trends, two kick in now that Pittsburgh is a dog. Dogs before being favorites are 92-52 ATS since 2011. The Steelers go to Cleveland next week. Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin is 3-1 ATS as dogs against the Ravens.  I really like the Steelers this week. At the very worst, they should be able to keep this within a field goal again so getting the 3.5 is key. I have a feeling the Steelers pull out the straight up win, however. Everyone is doubting them and they’re traditionally good even without Roethlisberger. Meanwhile, the Ravens are overrated.

Public lean: Baltimore (90% range)

Sharps lean: PIT 17 BAL 6

Final update: Glad to see that the sharps agree with my pick of the week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Baltimore Ravens 20 Upset Pick +170

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh +3.5 (-110) 5 units

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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins

Miami Dolphins (4-5) at Buffalo Bills (3-6)

Things have really gone south for the Dolphins in the past few weeks. How south? 2 weeks ago they were in a playoff spot in the AFC and road favorites going to Indianapolis. Two weeks later, they are 4-5 and are dogs in Buffalo. Not only that, but the public is pounding the home favorite. Buffalo is not only infrequently favored, but they’re also incredibly infrequently publicly backed as favorites.

So what went wrong for the Dolphins? Well, first they lost in Indianapolis to the Colts by 3. That’s not embarrassing at all. The Colts stand at 6-3 and even hanging within a field goal of them in Indianapolis is pretty impressive. However, last week, the Dolphins lost at home to the Titans in embarrassing fashion, 37-3. That’s shifted this line from Miami being road favorites to Buffalo being favored.

However, that loss wasn’t as embarrassing as it looked. They got killed in the turnover battle 4-0, setting up Tennessee in great field position, giving them the ability to score 37 points despite just 9 completions and fewer than 300 yards of offense. That being said, this line does hold up to the test of the yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential metrics. The former says this line should be Buffalo -1.5 and the latter says this line should be Buffalo -1, which is right around where this line actually is.

What last week’s fluky loss does do is put Miami in a great spot to cover this week. Teams are 62-31 ATS since 2002 coming off a loss of 31+ or more. Teams tend to be embarrassed and undervalued in this spot and the Dolphins are at least one of those things. They may also be undervalued. Teams are 21-11 ATS since 1989 coming off a game in which they allowed 32 or more points and fewer than 10 completions. This makes sense as those tend to be fluky losses. They may also be dogs before being favorites as they host Seattle (a notoriously bad road team) next week. Teams are 92-52 ATS in this spot in the last 2 seasons.

Buffalo is also in a bunch of bad spots, starting with the classic sandwich game spot. Teams are 57-82 ATS since 2008 as favorites off a loss as dogs and before being dogs. This works for one of two reasons depending on the type of team favored. For good teams, the sandwich game gives them an opportunity for an “easy” win to get on the right page after a tough loss before playing another tough team. They tend to overlook their opponents. For bad teams, well they shouldn’t be favored. Buffalo is clearly one of the latter teams.

They’re also in a bad spot after coming so close to knocking off divisional rival New England as huge dogs last week. Favorites are 22-30 ATS off a loss as divisional double digit dogs since 1989 and divisional favorites after a loss as divisional dogs are 96-112 ATS since 1989. Neither of those trends is particularly strong, but if you combine them, you get that teams are 5-12 ATS as divisional favorites off a loss as double digit divisional dogs. Meanwhile, favorites on Thursday Nights are 0-4 ATS off a divisional loss as dogs.

I like Miami for a significant play. Instead of putting 3 units on the spread and 1 on the money line, I’m putting all 4 on the money line. Since 1989, there have been 413 teams who have been favorites of less than 2. Of those 413 teams, only 7 of those teams won by exactly 1 point, about 1.7%. It’s not worth the extra 15 cents for something that historically will only hurt me about 1.7% of the time. I also like the under, as usual, on Thursday Night. The under is 71-53 on Thursday Night since 1989.

Public lean: Buffalo (70% range)

Miami Dolphins 23 Buffalo Bills 10 Upset Pick +105 4 units

Pick against spread: Miami +1.5 (-110) 0 units

Total: Under 45 (-110) 1 unit

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Week 10 NFL Picks Results

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks

Week 10 Results

ATS: 7-7 +5 units/+$370

SU: 8-5-1

Upset Picks: 1-1 +20

Over/Under: 1-1 -10

Total: +$380

Public Results ATS*: 7-7 -3 units

2012 results to date

ATS: 73-68-5 +19 units/+$255

SU: 93-52-1

Upset Picks: 26-24 +$2160

Over/Under: 6-4-1 +160

Parlays: 1-0 +100

Total: +2675

Survivor: 8-2 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD)

Public Results ATS*: 70-74-2 -2 units

*I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public win, if not, it’s a public loss. If a team that has 50-59% of the action on it covers, the public gets “one unit,” if they don’t cover, they lose one unit, 60-69% is 2, 70-79% is 3, etc.

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