Last week overall: 11-5

Last week ATS: 8-8 (+465/+7 units)

Overall picks: 165-91 (.645)

Upset Picks: 2-3 (-10/-1 unit)

ATS Picks: 108-140-8 (-12045/-89 units)

Survivor picks: 12-5 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN, TB, TEN, HOU, ARI)

Upset picks: 29-32 (+3170/+7 units)

Prop Bets: +188 

2010 Total: +6408

2010/2011 Total: -2279

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Houston Texans 20 Upset Pick (+130)

Pick against spread: Cincinnati +3 (-115) 2 units (-230)

Neither of these sides seems particularly good to bet on. On one hand, the Bengals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8, 3-5 SU, with wins over Arizona by 7, St. Louis by 7, and Cleveland by 3. They’re also 1-6 ATS against playoff teams this season, with that one cover coming against the Kyle Orton Broncos and they didn’t even win that one. In fact, they’re 0-7 SU against playoff teams this season (Pittsburgh twice, Baltimore twice, Houston, Denver, and San Francisco). That’s opposed to 9-0 SU against non-playoff teams. But at the same time, Houston has lost 3 straight to non-playoff teams (Carolina, Indianapolis, Tennessee).

Given that, I’m not sure if we can even count the Texans as a playoff team. They’re so banged up, especially offensively with TJ Yates starting in this one as their 3^rd string quarterback and even he is going to be playing through a separated non-throwing shoulder. If anything happens to him, it’s Jake Delhomme for the Texans. As bad as the Texans have been playing, I’m not even sure how much relevance the Bengals’ record against playoff teams is.

What is relevant is that the Texans beat the Bengals in Cincinnati earlier this season, but that was 3 weeks ago and only by 1 point, taking a big, late comeback to do it. There’s also a related trend to that loss. Teams are 57-41 ATS trying to avenge a loss in the playoffs since 2002, 15-9 ATS on the road trying to avenge a home loss.

One similarity between these two teams is that they are starting rookie quarterbacks. Cincinnati is starting Andy Dalton and Houston is starting TJ Yates. Rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle in the playoffs, but I’d trust Dalton more than Yates. Besides, Yates has more pressure on him as home favorites. Quarterbacks starting their first playoff game are 6-19 SU since 2003, but 2-10 ATS as home favorites, as opposed to 5-5 ATS as road dogs. I don’t love Cincinnati, but I think they’re the right side and the better team so I like getting points with the better team.

New Orleans Saints 31 Detroit Lions 27 Lock/Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Detroit +11 (-110) 3 units (-330)

This is another rematch. The Saints beat the Lions a few weeks ago by a score of 31-17 in New Orleans. However, Detroit was missing one of their best defensive players, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, due to suspension. His return will help the Lions as they try to contain Drew Brees, but they’re still not going to have a lot of success doing so. They also didn’t have Kevin Smith in that one after an early injury and I expect his return to have the bigger impact. The Saints aren’t a great run defense, but the Lions simply didn’t have anyone to take advantage of that last time as Maurice Morris struggled for 28 yards on 12 carries after Smith went down. Now they do. Smith rushed for 34 yards and a score on 6 carries before getting hurt.

There is one trend related to that loss, as teams trying to avenge a 14+ point loss are 20-11 ATS in the playoffs since 2002. Besides, it’s not like the Saints have been good as large favorites under Sean Payton with a 4-10 ATS record in those games, 4-9 ATS since the start of the 2009 season, when they really started playing at an elite level. I still like New Orleans to win, but Detroit is talented enough for a backdoor cover or even a legitimately close game here, especially with the trends on their side.

Atlanta Falcons 27 New York Giants 24 Upset Pick (+135)

Pick against spread: Atlanta +3 (-115) 2 units (-230)

The Giants made the playoffs, but they’re hardly playing good football right now. Eli Manning is good, as is Victor Cruz, but that’s about all they have going from them. They can rush the passer, but the rest of their defense is pretty bad and their offensive line and running game are a far cry from what they’ve been in the past.

They finished this season 3-5 after a 6-2 start with those 3 wins coming against an 8-8 Jets team that finished on a 3 game losing streak themselves and the Cowboys, who finished the season 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games. They’ve always been better in the first half than the 2^nd half under Tom Coughlin, going 47-17 SU in the first half since Coughlin took over in 2004 and 27-37 SU in the second half of the season. They’ve also only won a playoff game in one season under Coughlin, missing the playoffs or being one and done in the other 7 seasons.

The Falcons, meanwhile, do tend to struggle on the road, but I really like their team. Outside of the top 6 (GB, NE, NO, SF, PIT, BAL), I give them the best chance to make a deep run in the playoffs and one team always seems to come out of Wild Card weekend and make a deeper run than most expect. I don’t know if Atlanta necessarily does that (a win here sends them to Lambeau next week), but I do like them to win here over an overrated Giants team that seems ripe for another playoff flop.

Denver Broncos 16 Pittsburgh Steelers 13 Upset Pick (+320)

Pick against spread: Denver +9 (-115) 6 units (+600)

Time travel with me for a bit. The year is 2011. The Seattle Seahawks had just made the playoffs as a 7-9 team from the NFC West, the NFL’s worst division. Everyone thought they were a joke who had no business being in the playoffs and they were 10 point home dogs for the New Orleans Saints, who was in the middle of another strong season in their quest to repeat as Super Bowl Champions. Everyone and their dog bet on New Orleans, but I recognized it as an obvious trap line.

New Orleans had struggled in the elements before and Seattle had a huge home field advantage. The Seahawks also had the “no one believes in us factor.” Besides, that was only the 2^nd time all season that a team had been double digit home dogs, with the first being Carolina with Brian St. Pierre at quarterback against the eventual 12-4 Baltimore Ravens. Carolina deserved to be double digit home dogs there, but the Seahawks certainly didn’t. I picked the Seahawks to cover (one of my favorite plays of the year) and they shocked even me as they not only covered the 10.5, but won outright.

Back to 2012. Denver makes the playoffs as an 8-8 team out of an awful division, the AFC West. They’re on a 3 game losing streak, losing by a combined 88-40, including the last two against sub .500 teams, the Chiefs and the Bills. They’re playing awful. There’s no question about that. Tebow has regressed as a passer as teams have caught onto him some and John Fox’s retarded game plan which only lets Tebow throw on clear passing downs, on which throws tend to be low percentage, gets stupider by the week. The defense hasn’t been the same since Von Miller’s thumb injury. They aren’t running the ball well anymore and the offensive line has been awful, as have the receivers. But are the Steelers playing any better?

Ben Roethlisberger is clearly not healthy. They barely beat the Browns 13-9 and in Ben Roethlisberger’s last two games since the injury, they’ve beaten Cleveland 14-3 and lost to San Francisco 20-3. The only game they’ve looked good in throughout their last 4 was the St. Louis game, in which a healthy Charlie Batch led Pittsburgh to a 27-0 against an awful St. Louis team that can make almost anyone look good. Now Rashard Mendenhall is out with a knee injury as well.

Even when Ben Roethlisberger and Rashard Mendenhall were healthy, they had trouble putting away bad teams. Indianapolis only lost by 3, Jacksonville only by 4, Tyler Palko’s Kansas City Chiefs only by 4, and then of course, the two Cleveland games I mentioned. Even the biggest Tebow hater would have to agree that the Broncos are at least a little bit better than that group of jokers. Besides, the Steelers have always struggled as large favorites. Ben Roethlisberger is 3-10 ATS as road favorites of 7+, 1-8 ATS as road favorites of 9+, 5-12 ATS as non-divisional favorites of 9+ (home or away).

Like I felt last year, I feel this line could be a trap line. There have only been 8 games where the road team was favored by 9+ this season, Green Bay/Carolina, Pittsburgh/Indianapolis, Green Bay/Minnesota, Baltimore/Jacksonville, New Orleans/St. Louis, Pittsburgh/Kansas City, Green Bay/Kansas City, San Francisco/St. Louis. On paper, this game might not look that even, but it certainly looks more even than those 8 games, but Vegas is feeding off the public’s perception that the Broncos are absolute crap with this line, just like they fed (and profited) off of the public’s perception that the Seahawks were absolute crap last year. And the kicker, of those 8 teams favored by 9+ on the road, none of them covered. In fact, 3 of them lost (Baltimore in Jacksonville, New Orleans in St. Louis, Green Bay in Kansas City).

Another prominent trap line was in Super Bowl 42. The Patriots were double digit favorites on a neutral field. That line prayed on the public’s belief that the New York Giants were the worst team to ever make the Super Bowl and that the Patriots were awesome and invincible. A lot of people lost a lot of money that day, just like a lot of people lost a lot of money last year picking the Saints and a lot of people would lose a lot of money this year picking the Steelers (if this is a trap, the public is eating it up and betting heavily on the Steelers, which is a good sign.)

The most obvious sign that this line is a trap, Pittsburgh was 7 point favorites in Cleveland last week and didn’t cover. Now they’re 9 point favorites in Denver? Denver is worse than Cleveland?! Vegas isn’t stupid. This line was designed for a reason, to trap bettors into betting Pittsburgh and feed off the public jumping ship from the Tebow bandwagon.

The Broncos also have the “nobody believes in us” advantage here. Everyone is counting them out and that is an extremely powerful motivator. The Steelers could also not take them seriously, which works to their advantage as well. As bad as the Broncos have been over the past 3 weeks, they’re still 5-2 ATS as dogs under Tebow this season. They also have a big home field advantage. It’s not quite Qwest Field, but the Broncos have very loyal fans who will be very excited for their team’s first trip to the postseason since 2005.

This home field advantage will also have one more tangible, noticeable effect. In 2007, Ryan Clark made his first trip to Denver to play the Broncos and became near deathly ill. Clark has a sickle cell trait, along with another condition, which did not react well when Clark attempted to play in Denver’s high altitude. Clark lost 30 pounds, the rest of his season, and had to have his spleen removed. He did not play when the Steelers returned to Denver in 2009 and though they’re saying it’s possible he could play this week if he’s cleared by a doctor, I doubt he gets cleared and plays. After what happened last time, it’s too big of a risk. In the big picture, it’s just a football game. Assuming he doesn’t play, his absence certainly doesn’t help things for the Steelers. He’s their leading tackler.

One final parallel to last year’s Seahawks/Saints game is that the Steelers made the Super Bowl last year. Teams who make the playoffs (whether they win it or lose it) tend to struggle the following season. No defending Super Bowl Champion has won a playoff game since the Patriots in 2004 and no Super Bowl Runner Up has won the Super Bowl the next year since the 1973 Dolphins and only 2 Super Bowl Runner Ups have won playoff games since 1998 (2006 Seahawks, 2009 Cardinals).

And the final reason I like the Broncos this week is that bad teams tend to do pretty well in the playoffs. I’ve beaten the Seahawks/Saints story to death, but two other teams had average records and poor points differentials and made the playoffs (the Broncos finished -81 on the season). The 9-7 Arizona Cardinals in 1998 made the playoffs with a differential of -53. They ended up winning their road playoff game by 13 in Dallas, the franchise’s first since 1947. The 8-8 Rams made in it 2004 with a differential of -73. They ended up winning in Seattle by 7. In both cases, it could easily be argued that the bad playoff team was simply overlooked. The last 4 8-8 or 7-9 playoff teams won in the first round (St. Louis, Minnesota in 2004, San Diego in 2008, Seattle in 2010).

I’m hesitant to pick the Broncos to win straight up (although I was hesitant to pick Seattle to win straight up last year and look what happened there), but I love them to cover. The Steelers are not healthy and not playing good football and they always seem to have trouble as big favorites, especially on the road. They’ll also miss Ryan Clark’s services in the secondary, as well as Rashard Mendenhall’s at running back. This line looks like a trap line when you compare these two teams to the teams in the other 8 games which featured 9+ point road favorites this season, in which those road favorites were 0-8 ATS and just 5-3 SU. It also looks like a trap line when you see that Pittsburgh was just -7 in Cleveland last weekend and didn’t even cover.

Meanwhile, the Broncos will have a very excited crowd on their side, a huge home field advantage (high altitude is no fun for any visiting player to play in, even if it doesn’t make them near deathly ill), and the “nobody believes in us factor.” I’m expecting this to be a very close, low scoring game with the Steelers eventually prevailing, but failing to cover. The Broncos have had 12 of their 16 games decided by 7 or less (8-4 SU), while the Steelers have had 8 of 16 games decided by 8 or less (6-2 SU). Although, as long as it’s close, you never know, we might get some Tebow Time, though he’s come up empty in his last 3 tries. Couldn’t you just see him breaking off a Marshawn Lynch style Beast Mode run to win it late? I am picking the Steelers to advance though.

Sunday Morning Update: Putting 1 unit on Denver +320 to win straight up. 3 to 1 odds is too good of value. Also putting 6 on Denver +9. This is one of my favorite picks of the year.

32(31). St. Louis Rams 2-13

31(32). Indianapolis Colts 2-13

30(30). Minnesota Vikings 3-12

29(29). Cleveland Browns 4-11

28(28). Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-11

27(27). Jacksonville Jaguars 4-11

26(24). Washington Redskins 5-10

25(25). Miami Dolphins 5-10

24(26). Buffalo Bills 6-9

23(23). Carolina Panthers 6-9

22(22). Kansas City Chiefs 6-9

21(21). Chicago Bears 7-8

20(17). Seattle Seahawks 7-8

19(16). Arizona Cardinals 7-8

18(14). San Diego Chargers 7-8

17(20). Philadelphia Eagles 7-8

16(18). New York Giants 8-7

15(15). Oakland Raiders 8-7

14(12). Dallas Cowboys 8-7

13(19). Tennessee Titans 8-7

12(9). Denver Broncos 8-7

11(10). New York Jets 8-7

10(13). Cincinnati Bengals 9-6

9(8). Atlanta Falcons 9-6

8(7). Houston Texans 10-5

7(11). Detroit Lions 10-5

6(6). Baltimore Ravens 11-4

5(5). Pittsburgh Steelers 11-4

4(3). New Orleans Saints 12-3

3(4). San Francisco 49ers 12-3

2(2). New England Patriots 12-3

1(1). Green Bay Packers 14-1

Last week overall: 9-7

Last week ATS: 4-12 (-2135/-19 units)

Overall picks: 154-86 (.642)

Upset Picks: 3-4 (+85/-1 unit)

ATS Picks: 100-132-8 (-12510/-96 units)

Survivor picks: 11-5 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN, TB, TEN, HOU)

Upset picks: 27-30 (+3180/+8 units) 

2010 Total: +6408

2010/2011 Total: -2922

Green Bay Packers 24 Detroit Lions 23 Upset Pick (+160)

Pick against spread: Green Bay +3 (+105) 2 units (+210)

Aaron Rodgers and company are only expected to play about a quarter is this one. The Packers have locked up home field throughout the NFC with their win last week. Meanwhile, the Lions are going to play hard all game in an attempt to secure the NFC’s 5^th seed. If they lose, then they need Atlanta to lose at home to crappy Tampa Bay to get the #5 seed and if they get stuck with the 6 seed, they have to go to New Orleans in the first round rather than Dallas/New York.

However, we’re getting 3 points with the Packers at home. I have to take that. Even if the starters only play 1 quarter, the Packers could already be up 7-0 or 10-3. Besides, Matt Flynn is not a bad backup quarterback at all. He went 24 of 37 for 251 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a pick last year against New England. He’s a free agent after the season so this is his showcase to show he can start in this league. The Packers won’t be completely doomed without Rodgers and the rest of the starters, especially if they give Flynn a 7 point lead to start. Even if they lose, I can see them keeping it within 3.

Tennessee Titans 23 Houston Texans 17

Pick against spread: Tennessee Titans -3 (+105) 1 unit (-100)

The Texans don’t need to try in this one. They’re stuck in the #3 seed no matter what, but it doesn’t appear they’ll rest their starters. They don’t want to go into the playoffs with a 3 game losing streak to teams with worse records than them and TJ Yates needs all the reps he can get. In fact, the Texans are even likely bringing back Andre Johnson from injury to play in this one.

However, I still really feel they’ll treat this as a scrimmage, basically a preseason game. The Titans could easily be their first round opponent and they don’t want to give away too much of their game plan and playbook so expect the Texans to come out with a very vanilla game plan. In 2009, the Cardinals and Packers met week 17 knowing there was a good chance they would meet again in the first round of the playoffs. The Cardinals showed none of their hand week 17 and got their ass kicked 33-7, but eventually got the last word in the playoffs where they had an advantage.

For the Titans, this is a must win, so obviously they’ll try very hard. They’ll also play very hard to avenge their embarrassing 41-7 loss to Houston earlier this season. Favorites trying to avenge a 21+ point loss as favorites are 23-8 ATS since 2002, 11-4 ATS trying to avenge a divisional 21+ point loss. I don’t know if I agree with the Titans being 3 point road favorites here, but I think they’re the right side. They aren’t the best team, but the Texans aren’t very good either. They haven’t scored more than 20 since Matt Schaub got hurt.

Fun fact, the Titans’ last 3 wins have had the score 23-17. They also lost to Atlanta week 11 23-17, which means that 4 of their last 6 games and all 3 of their last 3 wins had the score 23-17. On top of that, their loss to New Orleans was 22-17.

Indianapolis Colts 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 13 Upset Pick (+170)

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +3.5 (-115) 3 units (-345)

All the Colts need to do is lose here and they can draft Andrew Luck if they so choose. They’ll obviously lay down and die right? Not necessarily. They’ve won 2 in a row and didn’t look like they wanted to lay down and die when they led a game winning drive against Houston last week. They’ve been playing much better football of late. Dan Orlovsky is 4-0 ATS since taking over as the starting quarterback.

Besides, while it is possible Jim Irsay will tell his team to lay down and die, it’s also possible he secretly wants his team NOT to get the #1 pick so he doesn’t have the deal with the Luck/Manning dilemma and can just take Matt Kalil at #2. It’s also possible that the Jaguars lay down and die so the Colts DON’T get Andrew Luck. It might not be a coincidence that the Colts’ last 2 wins were both divisional wins. Their divisional rivals can’t want this kid in the division.

The Jaguars beat the Colts 17-3 in Indianapolis earlier this season, but the way the Colts have been better of late. They are better than the Jaguars, who can only score 17+ points against Tampa Bay’s terrible defense when their own defense forces 7 turnovers. This line says the Jags are a little better than the Colts which I don’t agree with. I wouldn’t take Jacksonville as more than 3 more favorites over anyone right now. In fact, as 3+ home favorites, they’re an embarrassing 2-9 ATS since 2008. They’re also 3-11 ATS after a divisional loss since 2007 and they lost to Tennessee last weekend, who, by the way, the Colts beat the week before.

Finally, the Colts are on extra rest here. Excluding teams coming off the week 1 Thursday night game, after which teams tend to be flat, teams are 41-27 ATS after a Thursday game since 2008. I believe the Colts can go into Jacksonville and win and even if they don’t, they can definitely keep this within a field goal of the offensively challenged Jaguars. Their great pass rushers will wreak havoc and force a skittish Blaine Gabbert into some bad throws. I like getting more than 3 with the Colts here for a medium sized bet.

New York Jets 24 Miami Dolphins 17 Upset Pick (+150)

Pick against spread: NY Jets +3 (-105) 3 units (+300)

This line suggests that the Jets and Dolphins are essentially equals. I disagree with that. They are playing better football under Matt Moore, but remember, Matt Moore still has yet to beat anyone who is any good. In fact, he struggled mightily against these same Jets earlier this season going 16 of 34 for 204 yards and 2 picks. The Jets have one of the better defenses in the league and a confusing scheme so it’s very possible he struggles once again. To make matters worse, Matt Moore won’t have talented blindside protector Jake Long in this one either as he’s done for the season with injury. Reggie Bush is also going to miss this game, right when he was breaking out as a legitimate feature back.

The Dolphins did almost beat the Patriots last week in New England, but I could see how that could actually hurt them this week. They could be very flat after leading by 17 over the Patriots and failing to put them away, losing 27-24. Since 2002, they’re 3-8 ATS after losing to the Patriots and last week’s loss was especially heartbreaking for them.

Besides, last week was on the road and for some reason they are better on the road than at home. Since 2008, they are 22-10 ATS on the road and 10-22 ATS at home. Their home struggles are more in depth than that. As favorites, they are 6-14 ATS since 2008, as opposed to 23-17 ATS as dogs. Dolphins are 5-11 ATS as home favorites since 2008. One trend for the Dolphins is that divisional favorites trying to avenge a loss as divisional dogs are 34-23 ATS since 2008. But, I like the Jets here for a solid sized bet.

Minnesota Vikings 17 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against spread: Minnesota -1 (-115) 1 unit (-115)

There are conflicting trends here. On one hand, the Vikings will want revenge for the Bears 39-10 destruction of them earlier this season. Divisional favorites trying to avenge a loss as divisional dogs are 34-23 ATS since 2008. Divisional favorites trying to avenge a 21+ point loss are 29-14 ATS since 2002. They’ll definitely be motivated.

On the other hand, the Bears are in a good situation in their 2^nd of 2 on the road, a situation teams are 168-125 ATS in since 2008. Teams in that situation off a loss are 88-65 ATS since 2008 and teams in that situation off a loss in their 2^nd of 2 as road dogs are 55-37 ATS since 2008 as the trends say this game is a relative toss up.

I’m going with the Vikings here for just a unit because I think this line is a little off. I’d say these teams are about equal now. The Bears have no offensive playmakers and are down to their 3^rd string quarterback and running back and also missing one of their best receivers, Johnny Knox. The Vikings may be missing Adrian Peterson, but I think they still have enough to win a low scoring game against a Chicago team on a 5 game losing streak who could be flat after a loss to divisional rival Green Bay.

New England Patriots 38 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against spread: New England -10 (-110) 3 units (+300)

Over/Under: Over 51 1 unit (Patriots 10-5, Bills 9-6) (+100)

The Patriots barely beat the Dolphins last week and now they are 10 point favorites to the Bills. They have no defense and the public seems to have caught on as the Bills are actually public underdogs this week. As I’ve mentioned before, I love betting against public underdogs, but that’s not the only reason I love the Patriots in this situation.

The Patriots barely escaped last week with a win and I expect them to play their hearts out this week to compensate. A few weeks ago, Washington almost beat them and the Patriots came out the next week and thrashed the Broncos. Besides, this is a revenge game for Bill Belichick. Bill Belichick is 42-24 ATS against teams he previously lost to, 25-11 ATS against teams he previously lost to as a favorite since 2000.

Not only is this a revenge game, but this is a divisional revenge game. Bill Belichick is 19-6 ATS against divisional teams he previously lost to, 12-2 ATS against divisional teams he previously lost to as a favorite since 2000. The fact that this is a huge line shouldn’t scare you off too much. BB is 6-3 ATS as 7+ favorites against teams he previously lost to as a favorite since 2000, 5-0 ATS as 7+ favorites against divisional teams he previously lost to as a favorite since 2000. Finally, teams are 41-27 ATS trying to avenge a divisional loss of 3 or fewer.

One more trend for the Patriots, teams coming off a win in which they allowed 21+ points are 152-103 ATS since 2008, 98-62 ATS as favorites. Teams may be 29-43 ATS off a close divisional win (3 or fewer points) are since 2008, 11-27 ATS as favorites, but the Patriots are actually 4-1 ATS in this situation under Bill Belichick. However, this will not be a huge bet because I don’t trust New England’s defense enough to heavily bet on them as double digit favorites.

New Orleans Saints 34 Carolina Panthers 31

Pick against spread: Carolina +9 (-125) 3 units (-375)

The Saints are coming off a huge win on MNF. Normally, I would bet on them in this situation because of the powerful trend associated with teams coming off MNF wins of 21+. Teams in that situation are 26-11 ATS since 2002. However, there’s a very good chance the Saints’ starters don’t play the whole game.

Drew Brees has already broken his record and if the 49ers beat the Rams, the Saints are stuck in the #3 seed no matter what. The Saints/Panthers and the 49ers/Rams games happen concurrently, but we saw this last year. The Saints pulled their starters at halftime of their week 17 game against Tampa Bay (an eventual loss) because Atlanta was killing Carolina, making New Orleans’ game meaningless. The Rams are so bad that the 49ers could be up big at halftime and if they are, expect the Saints to rest starters week 17 for the 3^rd straight year. Given that, I can’t bet on the Saints as large favorites here.

Besides, the Saints struggle as large favorites normally. They are 5-11 ATS since 2006 as favorites of 9+ (4-10 ATS as favorites of 10+). You might think that has changed since they’ve gotten better, but since their Super Bowl winning season in 2009, they’re still only 5-9 ATS as favorites of 9+ (4-9 ATS as 10+ favorites. Besides, Cam Newton is the type of quarterback who can get a late backdoor cover with ease. And the Panthers have already almost beaten the Saints this year, losing by 3 to them earlier. They proved they can hang with them and teams trying to avenge a divisional loss of 3 or less are 41-27 ATS since 2008, 23-11 ATS as dogs.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Washington Redskins 21

Pick against spread: Washington +9 (-125) 1 unit (-125)

The Eagles looked done at 4-8 after a loss to Seattle and it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Andy Reid would get fired. Well, 3 weeks later, they are officially done, but they sit at 7-8 and are finally playing like the team we thought they could be at the beginning of the season and can get to .500 with a win here. Also, Andy Reid’s job is looking much, much safer.

However, it’s tough to tell how they’ll come out in this one. They got eliminated last weekend so they could be flat, but at the same time they’ve played some of their best football in games when the pressure has been off and it’s certainly off now. There are no major trends here, but the tiebreaker here for me is how much the Eagles have struggled as large favorites this season. They haven’t covered a line higher than 5 all season, going 0-4 ATS in such games. Washington has the type of offense that can get a backdoor cover as well.

San Francisco 49ers 20 St. Louis Rams 3

Pick against spread: San Francisco -10.5 (-110) 2 units (-220)

Over/Under: Under 35.5 1 unit (49ers 6-9, Rams 4-9-2) (-110)

Normally I hate betting on double digit road favorites. Teams are just 0-6 ATS in this situation this year. There’s also a tough trend working against San Francisco, coming off a close 2 point win over Seattle last weekend. Teams coming off a divisional win by 3 or fewer are 29-43 ATS since 2008, 11-27 ATS as favorites.

However, that being said, I can’t bet on St. Louis. They’ve been shut out twice in the last 4 weeks and have scored 26 points total in the last 4 weeks, 13 in their last 3 without Sam Bradford. Their offense was terrible with him, but they’re even worse without him. One of their two recent shutouts was in San Francisco just 4 weeks ago and even though this game is in St. Louis, it’s conceivable they could be shut out or close to shut out again. The 49ers have the league’s best scoring defense so I would find it unlikely that St. Louis gets out of single digits.

There also is a powerful trend working in San Francisco’s favor. Teams are 168-125 ATS in their 2^nd straight road game since 2008, 31-17 ATS is their 2^nd straight as favorites, 22-11 ATS in their 2^nd straight as favorites after a win. This is won’t be a very big bet, but I do like San Francisco in this situation almost solely on St. Louis’ ineptitude.

Atlanta Falcons 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against spread: Atlanta -11 (-110) 2 units (+200)

Atlanta is in a bad situation coming off a MNF loss of 21+. Teams in this situation are 13-23 ATS since 2002, 6-13 ATS off a divisional loss of 21+. However, Tampa Bay has absolutely quit and things won’t get much better this week with news that their coach is almost definitely getting fired after the season. They’ve surrendered 30+ to 6 of their last 7 opponents so Atlanta can sleepwalk and still probably score 30, even if they are flat off a bad loss and a short week.

Two trends do work in Atlanta’s favor. Teams are 44-31 ATS as favorites trying to avenge a divisional loss as dogs since 2008. Also, teams are 41-27 ATS trying to avenge a divisional loss of 3 or fewer. This won’t be a very big bet, but I love betting against Tampa Bay right now so I’m going with Atlanta for a couple of units.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Cincinnati Bengals 13

Pick against spread: Baltimore -1.5 (-115) 4 units (+400)

The Ravens may seem like a huge enigma and from the outside they may be, but they are in 3 situations this week that they’ve been very good in this season. As underdogs of favorites of less than 5.5 this season, they are 5-1 ATS. They’ve struggled ATS against much inferior opponents, but they’ve played well against good teams. Going off of that, they’re 6-1 ATS against teams with winning records.

They’re also 4-1 ATS in the division. It makes sense that they’d take divisional games more seriously. They need this win to secure a first round bye and the #2 seed so they’ll definitely be motivated, especially with Pittsburgh playing Cleveland and ready to take their #2 seed if they slip. I’m very confident that the Ravens can win here and against a very small line, I really like them this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Cleveland +7.5 (-125) 3 units (+300)

Ben Roethlisberger is expected to play through an ankle injury, but he could be limited. He played very poorly against San Francisco on MNF a couple weeks ago through an ankle injury as Pittsburgh lost 20-3. Now the Steelers go to Cleveland as 7.5 point favorites after having trouble putting away lesser teams all season.

They only beat Indy (in Indy) by 3, Jacksonville (at home) by 4, Kansas City (in Kansas City) by 4. Even a few weeks ago, they only beat Cleveland by 11 and that was after a late touchdown took it from 7-3 to 14-3. And for the most part, all of that happened when Ben Roethlisberger was healthy. Now he’s not and they’ve actually scored only 17 points in their last 2 games with him hurt combined, including only 14 at home for Cleveland. Now they go to Cleveland.

And if Ben Roethlisberger plays really well, he could be pulled in order to rest him. Charlie Batch is not a bad backup, but he’s not exactly Ben Roethlisberger. He had a solid game last week against St. Louis’ miserable secondary, but Cleveland actually has one of the better pass defenses in the league so if he comes in with a sizeable lead, there’s still a solid chance of a backdoor cover against this 7.5 point line. On top of that, Ben Roethlisberger is just 3-9 ATS in his career of 7+ point road favorites. I really love getting more than a touchdown with Cleveland here.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Seattle Seahawks 17 Survivor Pick 11-5 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN, TB, TEN, HOU)

Pick against spread: Arizona -2.5 (-105) 2 units (+200)

Both of these teams were eliminated from the playoffs last weekend, several weeks after most projected they would be eliminated. Now they play each other. Both teams could be flat after missing the playoffs last weekend, so really anything could happen, but with NFC West matchups, picking the home team ATS is normally the smart thing to do. NFC West home teams are 22-11 ATS since 2009 in divisional matchups. Adding to that, Seattle is a significantly worse road team (14-26 ATS) than home team (27-14 ATS) since 2007. One additional trend is that Arizona is trying to avenge a divisional loss of 3 or fewer, a situation teams are 41-27 ATS in since 2008, I’m taking Arizona for a couple.

Denver Broncos 16 Kansas City Chiefs 10

Pick against spread: Denver -3 (-125) 2 units (-250)

Tebow was awful last week, but it wasn’t just him. They couldn’t do anything on the ground. His receivers couldn’t catch. His line couldn’t block and his defense couldn’t stop anyone. The game plan was also overly conservative to a fault. This week, they get the Chiefs. Based on what he’s done this season, Tebow shouldn’t have much trouble winning (well, he could have trouble, but he’ll still win). The Chiefs suck and the Broncos have shown the ability to beat bad to average teams in conservative fashion. However, that’s what I said last week.

On top of that, the Broncos defense is banged up. Von Miller was playing like the defensive player of the year before a thumb injury, but he hasn’t been the same since. They’re also missing both of their starting safeties. Also, Kyle Orton plays for the Chiefs, so the Chiefs could have a strategic advantage in that Orton played for Denver just a few weeks ago.

Finally, a trend does work for the Chiefs because teams are 29-16 ATS as dogs trying to avenge a divisional loss as favorites since 2008. The Broncos are also the young team with all the pressure trying to make the playoffs, while the Chiefs have no pressure and have been playing better football under Romeo Crennel. All that said, I’m still taking the Broncos, especially since they did beat Kansas City in Kansas City earlier this season, but it’s not a very big bet.

San Diego Chargers 27 Oakland Raiders 21 Upset Pick (+130)

Pick against spread: San Diego +2.5 (-105) 4 units (+400)

Philip Rivers is 21-2 SU after week 14 (not including playoffs), 16-7 ATS and 4-1 ATS as dogs. The Chargers lost in this situation last week, but I actually still love them in this situation this week. Last week was a tougher game for them because they had to go all the way to Detroit, just like they lost when they went to Cincinnati last year. This week, they just have to go to Oakland and it’s their 2^nd straight road game.

Being in the 2^nd straight road game is a situation teams are 168-125 ATS in since 2008. Teams in that situation off a loss are 88-65 ATS since 2008 and teams in that situation off a loss in their 2^nd of 2 as road dogs are 55-37 ATS since 2008. The Chargers are also in a good situation because teams are 29-16 ATS as dogs trying to avenge a divisional loss as favorites since 2008. Finally, the Chargers have absolutely no pressure, which they love, while the Oakland need to win to make the playoffs.

Dallas Cowboys 31 New York Giants 28 Upset Pick (+150)

Pick against spread: Dallas +3 (-105) 3 units (-315)

These two teams met just a couple weeks ago. Dallas led by 12 late, but two late New York touchdowns, 1 two point conversion, a ball Miles Austin lost in the sun on a wide open touchdown, an iced kicker and a missed field goal later, New York won 37-34. That game was in Dallas and this one is in New York, but I still think Dallas has the advantage this week for several reasons.

For one, the pressure is off Dallas. New York is the home team, the favorite, the one who is supposed to win, while Dallas is the underdog with a quarterback with an injured hand (more on that later). Both of these teams are awful down the stretch. New York is 47-17 SU under Tom Coughlin in the first half of the season and 26-37 SU under Coughlin in the 2^nd half of the season. Meanwhile, Dallas is 10-18 ATS from week 13 on, but 3-3 ATS as dogs, as opposed to 7-15 ATS as favorites.

Back to their previous matchup, it really did seem like Dallas outplayed New York. It took a bizarre sequence for New York to come back. Besides, Dallas’ loss to New York could actually help them here. Dogs trying to avenge a divisional loss as favorites are 29-16 ATS since 2008. Teams trying to avenge a divisional loss of 3 or fewer are 41-27 ATS since 2008, 23-11 ATS as dogs.

Finally, onto Romo’s hand. Romo’s hand might be banged up, but it’s not like Eli Manning is playing well either. Since his last matchup with Dallas, Manning is 32 for 67 for 482 yards, 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions and that includes a 99 yard touchdown by Victor Cruz that Manning barely had a part in. I think his recent struggles cancel out the impact of Romo’s hand injury, which is reportedly not going to be a huge factor. There was never any question whether or not he could play and only sat last week after the hit because the game last week was meaningless if they lost to New York here, which I don’t think they will.

LV Hilton Super Contest: Baltimore -2.5, San Diego +3, New England -11, NY Jets +2, Indianapolis +3.5

32(32). Indianapolis Colts 2-13

31(31). St. Louis Rams 2-12

30(30). Minnesota Vikings 2-12

29(29). Cleveland Browns 4-10

28(27). Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-10

27(23). Jacksonville Jaguars 4-10

26(22). Buffalo Bills 5-9

25(28). Miami Dolphins 5-9

24(25). Washington Redskins 5-9

23(26). Carolina Panthers 5-9

22(24). Kansas City Chiefs 6-8

21(18). Chicago Bears 7-7

20(21). Philadelphia Eagles 6-8

19(12). Tennessee Titans 7-7

18(16). New York Giants 7-7

17(20). Seattle Seahawks 7-7

16(19). Arizona Cardinals 7-7

15(14). Oakland Raiders 7-7

14(17). San Diego Chargers 7-7

13(15). Cincinnati Bengals 8-6

12(13). Dallas Cowboys 8-6

11(11). Detroit Lions 9-5

10(10). New York Jets 8-6

9(8). Denver Broncos 8-6

8(9). Atlanta Falcons 9-5

7(4). Houston Texans 10-5

6(6). Baltimore Ravens 10-4

5(5). Pittsburgh Steelers 10-4

4(7). San Francisco 49ers 11-3

3(3). New Orleans Saints 11-3

2(2). New England Patriots 11-3

1(1). Green Bay Packers 13-1

Last week overall: 10-6

Last week ATS: 8-7-1 (-590/-4 units)

Overall picks: 145-79 (.647)

Upset Picks: 3-2 (+475/+3 units)

ATS Picks: 96-120-8 (-10375/-77 units)

Survivor picks: 11-4 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN, TB, TEN)

Upset picks: 24-26 (+3095/+9 units) 

2010 Total: +6408

2010/2011 Total: -872

Overrated

The Bengals are 2-4 SU in their last 5, with one win coming by 3 in comeback fashion against the lowly Browns in Cincinnati and the other coming by 7 to lowly St. Louis. They’re 1-5 ATS, since losing Leon Hall, their best defensive player, with one ATS win coming by .5 points.

The Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last 7, and have struggled to beat both Miami and Washington, and lost to Arizona. Their two ATS wins were against Tampa Bay and Buffalo, who are on a combined 15 game losing streak. They also do this every December.

The Lions are 2-6-1 ATS, 4-5 SU, in their last 9 and needed big comebacks to beat the Cowboys and Vikings even when they were playing well.

The Buccaneers have lost 8 straight and are 1-7 ATS in that stretch, including ugly losses to Jacksonville, Carolina, and Dallas in the past three weeks. They’re very banged up and lead the league in turnovers.

Underrated

The Cardinals are 6-2 SU in their last 7, 7-1 ATS.

The Falcons are 7-3 SU in their last 10, with losses to New Orleans (10-3), Green Bay (13-0), and Houston (10-3).

Before losing to a very good New England team, the Broncos had won 6 straight, 5 of which were as underdogs, and were 6-2 ATS since Tebow took over, 6-1 ATS as dogs or favorites of less than 3.

The Vikings have only lost by more than 10 twice this season, despite their 2-12 record, and one of those instances was against Green Bay. They’ve also only lost by 6+ 5 times (Green Bay, Atlanta, Chicago, New Orleans, San Diego).

The Eagles have won 2 straight in impressive fashion and finally look like the team they were supposed to be week 1.

The Chargers have won 3 in a row and are now a whopping 21-1 SU during weeks 14-17 with Philip Rivers.

The Seahawks are 6-1 SU in their last 6 and would be 7-0 if not for a late loss against Washington. They’re also 9-2-1 ATS in their last 11.

Houston Texans 23 Indianapolis Colts 10 Survivor Pick 11-4 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN, TB, TEN)

Pick against spread: Houston -5.5 (-110) 2 units (-220)

The Colts won a game. The Texans actually lose last week after winning and covering in their last 7 straight. Now the Colts are actually 3-0 ATS under Dan Orlovsky, though two of those were against gigantic spreads. They won last week as dogs at home of under 7, but I think that win, along with the Texans’ loss, has skewed this line. Tennessee was -6.5 in Indianapolis last week. Now Houston is -5.5 even though they are superior to Tennessee.

Thursday home teams are 12-6 ATS since 2010, but I don’t think the Colts have much chance here. Gary Kubiak is 4-2 ATS as a favorite after losing as a favorite. They should be back on the right page this week after what could have easily been a letdown game after making the playoffs for the first time in franchise history the week prior.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Cleveland Browns 10

Pick against spread: Baltimore -13.5 (+100) 2 units (-200)

The Ravens lost last week in San Diego to push their ATS record this season to 2-5 ATS against sub .500 teams. They’ve also lost to Tennessee, Jacksonville, Seattle, and barely beat Arizona at home. However, they beat the Browns pretty easily a few weeks ago, winning 24-10 in Cleveland, one of their two ATS wins against sub .500 teams this year (St. Louis, more on that game later). If they can win by that score in Cleveland, I think they can have a similar result here in Baltimore. Unlike non-divisional games against crappy teams, the Ravens actually seem to get up for these. They’re 4-0 ATS in the division overall this season.

Also, as inconsistent as the Ravens have been, they haven’t been bad in back to back weeks this season, with the exception of the Arizona game after the Jacksonville loss. Joe Flacco hasn’t had many back to back good games, but he hasn’t had many back to back bad games either and John Harbaugh is normally good at motivating his team after a loss as favorites, 5-2 ATS, including that previously mentioned St. Louis loss. I doubt they’ll be flat in back to back weeks against crappy teams, especially since this is a divisional matchup and there are playoff implications here. Also, Cleveland could be flat off of a loss in Arizona last week in overtime. Teams off a road OT loss are 8-20 ATS since 2008.

Denver Broncos 16 Buffalo Bills 10

Pick against spread: Denver -2.5 (-110) 4 units (-440)

All Tim Tebow does is win? Well, maybe we should amend that phrase. All Tim Tebow does is win…unless he plays Tom Brady because all Tom Brady does is win. In all seriousness, the Broncos aren’t a top tier team yet. They’re likely not going to beat teams like the Patriots, Saints, Packers, etc, and there isn’t a ton of shame in that. Not a lot of teams can.

However, the Broncos have no problems winning against lesser teams. With the exception of last week, Tebow is 6-1 ATS as a dog or favorites of 3 or less, with 3 or less being meaningful because they play so many close games. I expect a bounce back game here for Tebow and company. The last time Tebow lost, the Broncos scored their highest points total of the season (38) and their biggest win of the season (14) as 9 point dogs in Oakland. He’s a huge competitor and like the great ones, a loss will only motivate him more. I have no problem taking him here against a terrible Buffalo team that hasn’t won in forever (7 straight losses) as favorites of 3 or less, even on the road.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Carolina Panthers 24 Upset Pick (+315)

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +7.5 (-110) 5 units (-550)

Just a few weeks ago, the Panthers won in Tampa Bay as 3 point dogs and that was without Josh Freeman. These two teams were even in the eyes on Vegas a couple weeks ago and that was not including Freeman’s injury. Now Vegas says Carolina is 4.5 points better. I guess that’s what happens when you lose by 19 to Carolina, 27 to Jacksonville, and 16 to Dallas.

However, there are angles that favor Tampa Bay in this one, really strong ones too. Carolina isn’t good enough to be laying 7.5 points over anyone. Their defense is awful and no lead is too big for them to lead as we’ve seen against Atlanta and Detroit. They had trouble beating teams like Indianapolis and Jacksonville and are only 5-9. Even if they win this one, they’ll finish at best 6-10 unless they somehow win in New Orleans next week, highly unlikely. Teams that win 6 or less are 22-61 ATS as favorites of 6+ since 2002.

Tampa Bay hasn’t shown a lot of effort of late, but this game is a divisional game and a revenge game for them. Divisional dogs are 28-16 ATS since 2008 trying to avenge a loss as divisional favorites. Besides, this is a bad spot for Carolina as they could be caught looking forward to New Orleans next week. Divisional favorites before being divisional dogs are 6-24 ATS since 2008, 3-11 ATS after being a dog, 12-32 ATS after being a dog since 2002, 7-12 ATS after winning as a dog.

Arizona Cardinals 23 Cincinnati Bengals 17 Upset Pick (+175)

Pick against spread: Arizona +4 (-110) 4 units (-440)

The Bengals haven’t been the same since losing Leon Hall 6 games ago. They’re 1-5 ATS in their last 6 with their one ATS win coming last week by .5 (20-13 as 6.5 favorites in St. Louis). They barely beat St. Louis. That should tell you a lot about this team. They also needed a comeback to beat Cleveland, their other SU win in their last 6. Now they’re in a bad spot with a huge game against Baltimore next week and they might look past Arizona. Favorites before being divisional dogs are 53-75 ATS since 2008.

Meanwhile, Arizona is trending in the other direction. They’re 6-1 ATS in their last 7 instances as underdogs, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 overall and that includes a game last week in which they failed to cover, but still won. They’re playing good defense and good football in general, no matter who their quarterback is, though, for what it’s worth, they’ve been better on John Skelton, who will get the start this week as well. I suspect the Cardinals could shut down Kevin Kolb for the season with “injury problems” in an effort to better assess Skelton as a potential franchise quarterback.

If Cincinnati wins this one, I think it’ll be a close one, like by a field goal or maybe 4 points. As long as we’re getting 4 with Arizona, I love this pick. The Bengals haven’t done well as home favorites since 2007, 5-13 ATS, 2-8 ATS as favorites of 2-8 ATS. Even this season, when they’ve played better football, they’re still just 1-3 ATS as home favorites.

Oakland Raiders 21 Kansas City Chiefs 10 Upset Pick (+100) 4 units (+400)

Pick against spread: Oakland +1 (-110) 0 units

This is a divisional rematch of a weird 28-0 Kansas City win in Oakland earlier this season. However, that game was started by Kyle Boller, who threw 3 picks and then finished by Carson Palmer, who didn’t know the playbook yet and threw another 3 picks. So obviously the Chiefs won that one. However, the Chiefs aren’t a good team. I know they somehow beat Kansas City, but they aren’t a good team. Kyle Orton wasn’t the reason they won last week. It was this defense and their defense has been extremely inconsistent. Hell, 2 weeks ago they surrendered 37 points to the Jets. I don’t buy the Chiefs being any kind of favorites against Oakland, even in Kansas City.

Oakland is going to want revenge for that loss earlier this season to Kansas City. Divisional dogs are 28-16 ATS since 2008 trying to avenge a loss as divisional favorites. This is also a bad spot for Kansas City as they head to Denver next week. Divisional favorites before being divisional dogs are 6-24 ATS since 2008, 3-11 ATS after being a dog, 12-32 ATS after being a dog since 2002, 7-12 ATS after winning as a dog.

Finally, a fun fact, the road team has won 9 of the last 10 meetings in this matchup. The Chiefs don’t deserve to be favorites here and Oakland should win actually pretty easily. I was going to put 3 units on the spread and one on the money line like I do with all upsets, but one point games are so rare that I’m taking my chances with the better juice and the money line. Of course I did that last week with the Raiders as 1 point dogs and Detroit won by 1, losing me 300 that could have pushed. Fuck.

New England Patriots 34 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against spread: New England -9.5 (-110) 1 unit (-110)

The Dolphins are a weird team. Since 2008, they’re 21-10 ATS on the road and 10-22 ATS at home. It’s like reverse home field advantage. However, I feel like this line already takes that into account with this game being in New England. Either that or Vegas really thinks New England is just 6.5 points better than Miami.

Given that I think this line is a bit ridiculous, I’m taking New England. Tom Brady is a machine and this offense will score 30+ and probably a good amount more again. Even with a big line, I don’t trust the Dolphins to keep pace and cover, as good as they have been on the road. Both of these teams won last week despite allowing 21+ points, a situation teams are 150-104 ATS after a win in since 2008, but New England has the edge because favorites after that are 97-61 ATS, as opposed to 53-43 ATS for dogs. I don’t have any big trends for New England other than that one and I am afraid this could be a bit of a trap line given how bad New England’s defense is, which is why this is just a 1 unit bet, but I like New England.

New York Jets 24 New York Giants 17

Pick against spread: NY Jets -3 (+100) 2 units (-200)

I say this every week. The Giants do this every year. Under Tom Coughlin, they are Giants are 25-37 SU in the 2^nd half as opposed to 47-17 SU in the 1^st half. No one should be that surprised that they lost to the Redskins last week. This season, they are 1-5 SU since starting 6-2, with that one win coming by just 3 points against Dallas, who is also overrated, having gone 2-6 ATS in their last 8 with two covers coming against Buffalo and Tampa Bay. Given that, I predict the slide to continue for the Giants against the Jets here. The Jets looked worse than they were last week against an underrated Philadelphia team who is finally playing good football.

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 St. Louis Rams 9

Pick against spread: St. Louis +12.5 (-110) 3 units (-330)

Charlie Batch is going to be starting for Ben Roethlisberger in this one. The Steelers’ offense wasn’t even that great to begin with. They may have trouble scoring 13 points total (17 total in their last 2 weeks), even against a defense as bad as the Rams’. I don’t love the Rams, especially with Kellen Clemens at quarterback, but I’m not taking the Steelers as 12.5 point favorites.

In his career, Big Ben is 4-10 ATS as non-divisional favorites of 10+ and you can imagine they’d only be worse with Charlie Batch. This season, the Steelers beat the Colts 23-20, the Jaguars 17-13, the Chiefs 13-9, and the Browns 14-3, hardly dominating performances and with the exception of the 2^nd half of the Cleveland game, Ben was relatively healthy in those games.

Now he’s not even playing and the Steelers are also coming off a 17+ point loss on MNF, a situation teams are 20-37 ATS in since 2002. The only reason this isn’t a bigger bet is because St. Louis is awful and the Steelers actually have a good ATS record since 2004 without Big Ben, 8-5 ATS, 4-1 ATS in their last 5, but they’ve never been double digit favorites in that time.

Tennessee Titans 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +7.5 (-120) 3 units (+300)

The Titans have been overrated all season. The Colts just helped expose it last week. That was awful. With the exception of Baltimore and Denver, they haven’t beaten any .500 teams this season. Seattle and Jacksonville also beat Baltimore, so that doesn’t count. Meanwhile, when they played the Broncos, Tebow was still on the bench in favor of Kyle Orton. They have 5 losses to .500+ teams, Houston, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Atlanta, and New Orleans, by a combined score of 148-75. They’ve also lost to Jacksonville and Indianapolis.

On top of this, they struggled to beat Tampa Bay and Buffalo, beating both by 23-17 and those teams suck. Now they’ve supposed to beat the Jaguars by more than 7? Jacksonville isn’t great, but Tennessee doesn’t deserve to be favored by this much over anyone after last week, especially not Jacksonville, who always plays divisional opponents hard and beat them week 1.

Jacksonville also has trends on their side. Divisional favorites before being divisional dogs are 6-24 ATS since 2008, 1-12 ATS after a loss. Tennessee goes to Houston next week. On the flip side, divisional dogs before being divisional favorites are 24-12 ATS since 2008. Jacksonville is home for Indianapolis next week. Finally, Jacksonville is better rested. Excluding teams coming off the opening week Thursday Night game (an emotional game, after which teams tend to be flat), teams coming off a Thursday Night game are 40-26 ATS since 2008.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Washington Redskins 21 Upset Pick (+245)

Pick against spread: Minnesota +6.5 (-110) 5 units (+500)

Like I mentioned under Carolina, Washington just doesn’t deserve to be favored by more than 6 points. Washington is 5-9 and needs to win out against Minnesota and Philadelphia to get more than 6 wins, which is unlikely. Teams that win 6 or less are 22-61 ATS as favorites of 6+. Washington just isn’t good enough to deserve to be favored by this much.

On top of that, Minnesota may have 12 losses, but only 4 by a touchdown or more (Atlanta, Chicago before the Cutler/Forte injuries, Green Bay, New Orleans). That’s a great group of team, much better than Washington. As for losses by 6 or more, all you need to do is add San Diego week 1 into the mix. Minnesota plays a lot of close games hanging within 6 of much better teams than Washington (Detroit twice, Green Bay once, Denver, Oakland, etc.).

This is also a bad situation for Washington, who could be more focused on Philadelphia next week. Favorites before being divisional dogs are 53-75 ATS since 2008. They were also dogs last week against New York. Favorites before and after being dogs are 72-103 ATS since 2008. Besides, the Redskins are an inconsistent team. They rarely are good two weeks in a row as in that sense, their win last week against New York could hurt them.

San Diego Chargers 35 Detroit Lions 27 Upset Pick (+120) 5 units (-500)

Pick against spread: San Diego +1.5 (+105) 0 units

Maybe Norv Turner should try to convince Philip Rivers it’s always December. This is insane. Dead in the water at 4-7 3 weeks ago, Rivers and company turned it on in December again, winning 3 straight by a combined score of 109-38, including a 34-14 win over Baltimore on last Sunday night. Philip Rivers is now 21-1 SU after week 14 (not including playoffs), 16-6 ATS and 4-0 ATS as dogs. The Chargers are dogs here again, so obviously I love San Diego this week.

Meanwhile, the Lions are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9, since starting 5-0. Even with they started 5-0, they needed comebacks to beat Dallas and Minnesota. Recently, they’ve needed comebacks to beat Oakland and Carolina. They could also be caught looking forward to Green Bay next week. Favorites before being divisional dogs are 53-75 ATS since 2008. On top of that, teams are 3-11 ATS before playing the Packers this season.

One trend works for Detroit. Teams are 150-104 ATS after a win in which they allowed 21+ points, 97-61 ATS as favorites, a situation Detroit is in, but I still love getting Philip Rivers as dogs in December against a team that has done been covering well of late. I’m putting 5 on the money line, rather than 4 on the spread and one on the money line because of how rare 1 point games are.

Philadelphia Eagles 34 Dallas Cowboys 20 Upset Pick (+110) 4 units (+440)

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +1.5 (-110) 0 units

Dallas may have won 31-15 last week, but that has more to do with how crappy Tampa Bay is than anything to do with Dallas. Dallas is still 2-6 ATS in their last 8, including last week, with those two covers coming against Buffalo and Tampa Bay, who have lost a combined 15 games in a row. They barely beat Miami and Washington and lost to Arizona and an overrated New York team. On top of this, they always seem to get worse in December. Tony Romo is 10-17 ATS from week 13 on, 7-14 ATS as favorites.

Meanwhile, the Eagles have improbably put themselves back into the playoff race. They’re playing their best football in December again, winning their last 2 by a combined score of 71-29 against Miami and New York after bottoming out on Thursday Night Football against Seattle a few weeks ago. Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin are back and the defense is playing better. Andy Reid seems to really want to remain head coach. If the Jets beat the Giants and the Giants beat the Cowboys next week, the Eagles are in the playoffs if they win here against Dallas and next week against Washington. They’re playing much better football than Dallas is now.

The situations also say Dallas. Divisional favorites before being divisional dogs are 6-24 ATS since 2008. Dallas has to go to New York next week and could be caught looking forward to a “better” divisional rival. Meanwhile, divisional dogs before being divisional favorites are 24-12 ATS since 2008. Philadelphia hosts Washington next weekend. Again, I’m putting all 4 units on the money line instead of splitting them up because of the rarity of 1 point games.

Seattle Seahawks 17 San Francisco 49ers 13 Upset Pick (+115) 3 units (-300)

Pick against spread: Seattle +1.5 (-105) 0 units

The 49ers finally got their win over an elite team, winning 20-3 on MNF last week. Granted, Ben Roethlisberger was playing with one leg, but don’t try to tell them that. That game was huge for them. They could predictably be a little flat this week for Seattle, especially with a playoff spot secured. A trend that really works against them, teams are 17-37 ATS after beating the Steelers since 2002, so the 49ers could be extra flat.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks are the best ATS team over their last 12 games in the league, with a 9-2-1 ATS record. Now they’re at home, where they are even better. Since 2007, they’re 27-14 ATS at home, as opposed to 14-26 ATS on the road. On top of that, in NFC West divisional games, the home team covers 2/3 of the time, 22-11 ATS since 2009. I excluded the 2011 49ers previously because they were good, but I added them in there for this week because they did lose in Arizona. If they can lose in Arizona, they can lose in Seattle. Again, I’m putting all 3 units on the money line instead of splitting them up because of the rarity of 1 point games.

Green Bay Packers 23 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against spread: Chicago +13 (-115) 1 unit

There was some speculation that Jay Cutler could return for this game, but he will not. Instead, it’ll be Josh McCown making his first start since 2007, rather than Caleb Hanie, who had thrown a whopping 9 interceptions to 3 picks in 4 starts since taking over for an injured Cutler. To put McCown in perspective, the last time he made a start, he was benched afterwards for JaMarcus Russell, who was a rookie at the time. McCown can’t really be worse, but he’s probably not going to be much better and his first test is the defending Super Bowl Champion Packers at home.

Still, that being said, I’m taking the Packers here for a unit. The Packers simply don’t have anything to play for. In fact, if the 49ers lose, the Packers will have home field wrapped up with a win here. Their perfect season hopes are gone, so there’s no question they would rest their starters some if they had everything wrapped up and even if they don’t, they could still be really flat here. Teams are 0-4 ATS after losing their first game after starting 12-0 or better. This makes sense. With perfection gone, there’s not a whole lot left to play for, especially with a #1 seed all but wrapped up. That’s the situation the Packers are in here.

Meanwhile, this could essentially be Chicago’s Super Bowl, as they’re all but eliminated from the playoffs thanks to injuries. They’d love to be able to beat the defending Super Bowl Champion Packers and love the opportunity to kick them when they’re down. However, this is still just a 1 unit bet, because I hate betting against Aaron Rodgers, especially in favor of Josh McCown, making his first start since 2007.

New Orleans Saints 31 Atlanta Falcons 28

Pick against spread: Atlanta +6.5 (-110) 3 units

Normally the book on New Orleans and Atlanta is to bet on them at home, but against them on the road. That doesn’t seem to happen when they play each other, probably because both have domes. The last 4 matchups have been won by the road team. I’m actually not picking Atlanta straight up because I really think New Orleans is a much better team, especially at home, but I am taking Atlanta ATS because those last 4 games have actually been decided by a field goal. That’s crazy. In fact, of the last 6, 5 have been decided by 4 or less and the other one was by 8.

Atlanta also has a trend on their side as they try to avenge a divisional overtime loss, which they suffered earlier this season. Teams in that situation are 13-5 ATS since 2008. I don’t like Atlanta’s chances to win that much, though they could, but I would be really surprised if this game were decided by more than a touchdown, based on the rivalry history and the one trend that does apply to this game. 

LV Hilton: Minnesota +6.5, Tampa Bay +7.5, San Diego +2.5,  Denver -2.5, St. Louis +14 (31-38-1)

32(32). Indianapolis Colts 0-13

31(31). St. Louis Rams 2-11

30(30). Minnesota Vikings 2-11

29(28). Cleveland Browns 4-9

28(21). Miami Dolphins 4-9

27(24). Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-9

26(26). Carolina Panthers 4-9

25(27). Washington Redskins 4-9

24(23). Kansas City Chiefs 5-8

23(29). Jacksonville Jaguars 4-9

22(25). Buffalo Bills 5-8

21(22). Philadelphia Eagles 5-8

20(19). Seattle Seahawks 6-7

19(18). Arizona Cardinals 6-7

18(16). Chicago Bears 7-6

17(20). San Diego Chargers 6-7

16(17). New York Giants 7-6

15(11). Cincinnati Bengals 7-6

14(15). Oakland Raiders 7-6

13(14). Dallas Cowboys 7-6

12(12). Tennessee Titans 7-6

11(13). Detroit Lions 8-5

10(10). New York Jets 8-5

9(8). Atlanta Falcons 8-5

8(9). Denver Broncos 8-5

7(6). San Francisco 49ers 10-3

6(5). Baltimore Ravens 10-3

5(4). Pittsburgh Steelers 10-3

4(7). Houston Texans 10-3

3(3). New Orleans Saints 10-3

2(2). New England Patriots 10-3

1(1). Green Bay Packers 10-3

Last week overall: 13-3

Last week ATS: 7-9 (-550/-4 units)

Overall picks: 135-73 (.649)

Upset Picks: 3-1 (+320/+2 units)

ATS Picks: 88-113-7 (-9785/-73 units)

Survivor picks: 11-3 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN, TB)

Upset picks: 21-24 (+2620/+6 units) 

2010 Total: +6408

2010/2011 Total: -757

Overrated

The Bengals are 1-4 SU in their last 5, with one win coming by 3 in comeback fashion against the lowly Browns in Cincinnati. They haven’t covered, 0-5 ATS, since losing Leon Hall, their best defensive player.

The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7, and have struggled to beat both Miami and Washington, and lost to Arizona. They also do this every December.

The Lions are 2-6 ATS, 3-5 SU, in their last 8 and needed big comebacks to beat the Cowboys and Vikings even when they were playing well.

The 49ers haven’t beaten anyone and they just lost to the Cardinals. They aren’t as good as their 10-3 SU record suggests.

The Buccaneers have lost 7 straight and are 1-6 ATS in that stretch, including ugly losses to Jacksonville and Carolina in the past two weeks. They’re very banged up and lead the league in turnovers.

Underrated

The Cardinals are 5-2 SU in their last 7, 6-1 ATS.

The Falcons are 6-3 SU in their last 9, with losses to New Orleans (10-3), Green Bay (13-0), and Houston (10-3).

The Broncos have won 6 straight, 5 of which were as underdogs, and are 6-2 ATS since Tebow took over, 6-1 ATS as dogs or favorites of less than 3. It’s time to start believing.

The Texans have won and covered in 7 straight and TJ Yates isn’t too bad.

The Vikings have only lost by more than 10 twice this season, despite their 2-11 record, and one of those instances was against Green Bay. They’ve also only lost by 7+ 3 times (Green Bay, Atlanta, Chicago).

The Eagles have no pressure anymore and played like it against Miami. I think they play great football the rest of the way as they have a bunch of players and coaches playing and coaching for their jobs.

The Chargers have won 2 in a row and are now a whopping 20-1 SU during weeks 14-17 with Philip Rivers.

The Seahawks are 5-1 SU in their last 6 and would be 6-0 if not for a late loss against Washington. They’re also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 9

Pick against spread: Atlanta Falcons -11 (-110) 2 units (+200)

The Jaguars scored 41 points last week. Previously, they had only scored more than 16 once all season and that was when they score 20 in a 30-20 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. However, that doesn’t mean their offense got better. It was the combination of two things. One, Tampa Bay’s awful pass defense made Blaine Gabbert look at least mediocre as he completed 19 of 33 for 217 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 picks. Two, Tampa Bay, who leads the league in turnovers, turned the ball over 7 times, including two fumble sixes, that led to 14 Jacksonville points.

Atlanta doesn’t have the best pass defense, but they’re better than Tampa Bay’s so Blaine Gabbert could once again struggle offensively. Atlanta also won’t turn the ball over 7 times so Jacksonville could really have a tough time scoring. On top of that, the Jaguars have to travel on a short work week and play their 3^rd game in 11 days (they were on MNF two weeks ago).

Thursday road teams are 6-11 ATS since 2010. Thursday home favorites are 26-12 ATS since 2002, 12-2 ATS as favorites of 7+, 6-1 ATS as favorites of 10+. The Browns covered as 14 point underdogs on the road last week, but that was only because Ben Roethlisberger got hurt and the Steelers fumbled twice in their own red zone. Still, the Browns scored only 3 points. Thursday Night games are typically very low scoring, especially for the road team so the Jaguars could have trouble cracking double figures this week.

Given that, I really like Atlanta’s chances to cover. Atlanta is a great home team under Mike Smith, 19-11 ATS at home, 15-8 ATS as home favorites. They’re also favorites coming off a win in which they allowed 21+ points, a situation teams are 95-59 ATS in since 2008. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is a mere (and ridiculous) 13-26 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2007. And all of this is on top of the fact that Jacksonville is a Thursday road team.

However, there are two reasons why this isn’t a very big bet. For one, Atlanta plays New Orleans next week and could be more focused on that game than this one. Favorites before being divisional dogs are 51-74 ATS since 2008, 3-10 ATS as favorites of 10+, 8-17 ATS as favorites of 10+ since 2002. The 2^nd reason is that Atlanta just doesn’t blow a lot of teams out, even at home. If you look at their wins in the Mike Smith era, there aren’t a ton by 10+, at least not a ton if you consider their overall record. As good as they are at home, they’re only 1-2 ATS as 10+ point favorites at home, so this is still a pretty conservative bet.

Dallas Cowboys 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +7 (-120) 2 units (-240)

The Cowboys have secretly not been playing good football of late. They may not have a horrible SU record in their past 7, but they’re still being overrated by Vegas as they’ve gone 1-6 ATS in their last 7. They struggled to beat Washington and Miami and lost to Arizona. Last week’s loss to the Giants was excusable, but it still wasn’t good. And if history is any indications, things will only get worse for the Cowboys as Tony Romo is 9-17 ATS from week 13 on, 6-14 ATS as favorites.

Now they have to travel to Tampa Bay on a shorter week (this is a Saturday Night Game) and play the Buccaneers, who could put forth a lot of effort to play the Cowboys on a national stage. The Cowboys could be really flat off that loss. Non-divisional favorites after a divisional loss are 42-57 ATS since 2008 and that doesn’t even take into account that it was a close loss in which Dallas led by multiple touchdowns late and had the game tying field goal go in, only to have to come back after Tom Coughlin successfully iced the kicker.

One trend that goes in Dallas’ favor is that teams are 17-3 ATS since 2008 after losing a game in which they scored 34+ points. New York was in that situation last week after losing to Green Bay and they covered. Dallas could do something similar, but considering their poor ATS record of late, how heartbreaking that loss was last week, the fact that it was a divisional loss (teams are 7-4 ATS since 2002 after a divisional loss in which they scored 34+, so not as powerful), and how poor Romo always plays in December, I’m leaning towards Tampa Bay here at home on a short week.

Tampa Bay is just 5-16 ATS at home under Raheem Morris though and I hate going against a 17-3 ATS trend, and I also hate picking an absolutely terrible team in Tampa Bay, who has lost by a combined 79-33 to Carolina and Jacksonville in the past two weeks, and leads the league in turnovers. Tampa Bay is also just 3-11 SU against +.500 teams in the last 2 seasons, so this isn’t a huge bet, but I’m taking Tampa for a couple.

Miami Dolphins 27 Buffalo Bills 13 Upset Pick (+110)

Pick against spread: Miami +2 (-110) 3 units (+300)

Remember when Buffalo was 5-2 and a legitimate playoff contender? That was fun. However, they’ve lost 6 straight. Meanwhile, the Dolphins may have started 0-7, but are 4-2 in their last 6, losing by 1 to Dallas and losing last week to Philadelphia after Matt Moore got knocked out with a concussion. Moore is expected back this week, as is Jake Long. His absence was felt against the Eagles, who sacked Moore and JP Losman a combined 9 times last week.

Moore has shown the ability to beat up on bad teams this year, beating Kansas City 31-3, Washington 20-9, and even beating these Bills at home 35-8. The Bills are an absolute mess right now so I see no reason why the Dolphins can’t have a similar game this week, especially since they might even be better on the road, going 20-10 ATS on the road, as opposed to 10-22 ATS at home, since 2008. Meanwhile, the Bills are in a sandwich spot, as favorites before being dogs (Denver) and after losing as dogs, a situation teams are 47-74 ATS in since 2008. The only reason this isn’t a huge bet is that Miami fired Tony Sparano this week and teams are 5-12 ATS off of firing their coach midseason in the last 17 instances.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Chicago Bears 13 Upset Pick (+190)

Pick against spread: Seattle +4 (-115) 4 units (+400)

Seattle is normally a team I like to bet on at home and bet against on the road, and with good reason. They’re 27-14 ATS at home since 2007 and 13-26 ATS on the road in that same time period. Besides, NFC West teams in general (excluding the 2011 San Francisco 49ers because they’re actually good) are 19-33 ATS on the road since 2010. However, Seattle has improved on the road this season. They’re actually 3-2-1 ATS on the road this season, and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4. Remember, they beat New York in New York earlier this season.

I also think Seattle is a very underrated team. They’re 5-1 SU in their last 6 and would be 6-0 if not for a late loss against Washington. On top of that, in their last 11, they’re a whopping 8-2-1 ATS and they’ve even been good on the road, as I’ve mentioned. They’re also coming off a big win on MNF last week, winning by 17, 30-13 against the Rams. Teams off a MNF win of 17+ are 37-21 ATS since 2002 and though they’re only 11-10 ATS off a win between 17-21 points, I still think that should be able to carry some of that momentum into this week. They don’t have the best offense, but they’re disciplined under a great coach in Pete Carroll and they can run the ball with Marshawn “Beast Mode” Lynch.

I would argue that Seattle’s offense is probably better than Chicago’s. They don’t have Jay Cutler. They don’t have Marion Barber. I know Denver has a good defense and that’s an excuse for why they scored 10 in Denver last week, but what about scoring 3 at home against the Chiefs? I think Chicago is pretty overrated here. They’re not playing good football and don’t deserve to be 4 point home favorites to a Seattle team with a  great ATS record of late, who hasn’t even been playing badly on the road since week 2.

The Bears could also be really flat this week. This is a sandwich situation for sure at home as favorites after losing in Denver last week as underdogs. They also go to Green Bay next week. Teams are 3-11 ATS before playing the Packers this season and you have to think it could be even harder for the Bears to get up before playing the Packers than normal teams because the Bears view the Packers as their biggest rivals. The Bears got absolutely flattened by the Saints week 2 before they played the Packers week 3. If they couldn’t get up for the Saints before playing the Packers, why would they get up for the “lowly” Seahawks and Tarvaris Jackson. Favorites before being divisional dogs are 51-74 ATS since 2008 and that definitely applies this week.

The Bears could be especially flat after their loss to Tebow and company last week. For those of you who didn’t see it, I’m sure you read about what happened by now. Either that, or you’re living under a rock. Losing that way is absolutely terrible and the Bears might not be able to bounce back from that. Teams are 27-45 ATS off a road OT loss since 2002, 17-33 ATS at home the next week and that might not even capture how flat the Bears could be this week.

Combine the Bears upcoming game with the Packers and their crushing loss last week to Denver and you’ve got a sandwich game. The Seahawks are 5-1 SU in their last 6 and would be 6-0 if not for a late loss against Washington. They’re also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11. Favorites before being dogs and after losing as dogs are 47-75 ATS since 2008, 16-28 ATS before being divisional dogs, 42-66 ATS before being divisional dogs since 2002. Favorite before being dogs and after losing as dogs in overtime are 4-10 ATS since 2002.

Plus, as I said, that doesn’t even capture how bad their loss last week was and how bad their game next week against the Packers will be for the Bears. The Seahawks might not be the greatest team, but their playing much better of late, even on the road, and I think they have the kind of team that can take advantage of all the trends against Chicago and at least cover as more than field goal underdogs.

Houston Texans 31 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against spread: Houston -6.5 (-105) 3 units (-315)

The Houston Texans are the NFL’s hottest team. They’ve won 7 in a row AND covered in all 7 and have survived injuries to their top 2 quarterbacks, their top receiver, and their best pass rusher in the process. TJ Yates has shown himself to be a passable starter, beating both Cincinnati and Atlanta in the past two weeks and their awesome defense (1^st in yards, 4^th in scoring), running game (2^nd in yards), and offensive line (8^th best with just 24 sacks allowed) has made things very easy for Yates. On top of that, Yates could get his top receiver, Andre Johnson, back this week.

And yet Vegas says this Houston team is 3.5 points better than Carolina? What? Carolina is 4-9 and their only wins have come against Jacksonville, Washington, Tampa Bay, and Indianapolis. Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and New England would all be at least 10 point favorites at home for Carolina, but Houston is 6.5. Houston continues to be very underrated by Vegas, part of the reason why they’ve managed to cover 7 in a row. I expect them to make it 8 in a row this week. I have no trends on either side to back this up, which is why this is only 3 units, but I do really like Houston this week.

Tennessee Titans 24 Indianapolis Colts 10 Survivor Pick 11-3 (NE, PIT, BAL, GB, NYG, PHI, NO, SF, DAL, SD, ATL, NYJ, DEN, TB)

Pick against spread: Tennessee -6.5 (-105) 2 units (-210)

So much for Dan Orlovsky being an upgrade at quarterback. Dan Orlovsky looked good statistically against a terrible New England pass defense in garbage time, going 30 of 37 for 353 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, but struggled against a real defense, Baltimore’s, last week, going 17 of 37 for 136 yards, a touchdown, and a pick and this stats were even worse if he exclude a garbage time touchdown late.

Orlovsky covered in both of those games, but that was as 21 and 17 point underdogs respectively. Tennessee might not be the greatest team, but I can’t see Indianapolis keeping this within 6, even if Orlovsky has pulled off back to back backdoor covers. The last time Indianapolis lost by less than 7 was week 5, and that was against the lowly Colts. They are the probably the worst team ever and even though I don’t have any trends here, I have no problem taking Tennessee for a couple as sizeable road favorites.

Green Bay Packers 41 Kansas City Chiefs 9

Pick against spread: Green Bay -14 (-110) 3 units (-330)

The Chiefs had 4 yards of offense in the first half last week. 4!!! My high school alma mater could have at least gotten 5 (by the way, shout out to BCP for going to states for the 2^nd year in a row, let’s just hope the other team doesn’t have 7 guys who look like Troy Polamalu this time). Anyway, if you’re wondering why Todd Haley was fired, that’s why, 4 yards in the first half. Plus he’s a douche.

Romeo Crennel will take over as head coach on an interim basis. Forget that Crennel has absolutely no success as an NFL Head Coach (he’s an excellent defensive coordinator, however), his still has to make his return to Head Coaching against the Packers. That’s no fun. The Chiefs could be really flat this week after losing their Head Coach. Teams that fire their head coach midseason are 5-13 ATS in the last 18 instances and it’s not like the Chiefs needed anything to make them more flat. They’re terrible anyway and their playing the Packers. Another trend working against them, they’re in their first of 2+ as home dogs. Teams in this situation are 56-72 ATS since 2008, 13-22 ATS off a loss as road dogs.

As for the Packers, Aaron Rodgers is 32-16 ATS since 2009. He’s playing insane right now and this game could be over at halftime like the Packers’ game against a superior opponent last week in the Oakland Raiders. Greg Jennings is out for the Packers, but the Packers’ offense is so good that it’s basically next in line for them. They have so much depth at wide receiver. Guys like Donald Driver, James Jones, and Randall Cobb will all be able to step up in Jennings’ absence, as will the tight end Jermichael Finley as Rodgers’ #1 option Jordy Nelson.

The Packers may be just 4-3 ATS on the road this season and I hate betting on huge road favorites and I’m taking the Packers here as 14 point road favorites here in Kansas City for a pretty big amount. This is going to be an absolute blowout. The Chiefs stink and have just lost their head coach. There are also trends in the Packers’ favor and besides, it’s not like the Chiefs haven’t been blown out a lot in the past two years. Despite a modest 15-15 record (including playoffs), the Chiefs have actually lost 9 times by 20+ and to much worse teams than the Packers. Maybe that’s why Todd Haley was fired. That and he’s a douche.

New Orleans Saints 27 Minnesota Vikings 24

Pick against spread: Minnesota Vikings +7 (-110) 4 units (-440)

This is what I wrote about the Saints last week in my Saints/Titans game pick. “When the Saints were 15 point road favorites in St. Louis, I desperately wanted to bet on the Rams because of how bad the Saints have been on the road, but I didn’t because the Rams were so awful. The Rams won. Won! Ever since then, I’ve been sure to note how terrible the Saints are on the road. They’re 5-10 ATS on the road since 2010, but that doesn’t even go deep enough into it.