Year: 2012

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Falcons, Saints

Atlanta Falcons (8-0) at New Orleans Saints (3-5)

The Falcons are an undefeated 8-0, but they have not played a tough schedule (it doesn’t really get harder) and they’ve won 5 of their 8 games by a touchdown or less, including 4 at home. Their +77 points differential is just 6th in the NFL. Typically, records in touchdown games even out over time. Teams that win a game by a touchdown or less win their following game 52% of the time if that game is also decided by a touchdown or less.

They’ve beaten everyone on their schedule and they’ve been able to eke out victories, but at the end of the day, if I’m an AFC team, I’m way more scared of the Bears than the Falcons. I don’t like the Falcons to go 16-0 either even against a week schedule. At least one of these inferior teams that they keep barely beaten will trip them up one of these weeks. It could easily be the Saints in New Orleans this Sunday.

When are we ever going to see Drew Brees as a home dog again? Well, it’s actually happened 5 times before this week since he joined the Saints in 2006. The Saints covered 4 of those 5 instances. Meanwhile, dogs before being favorites are 89-50 ATS since 2011. The Saints go to Oakland next weekend. Home dogs before being road favorites, like the Saints will be next week, are 52-31 ATS since 2002.

That makes sense. If you’re good enough to be road favorites in the following week, why are you home dogs? Those teams are extra focused too with an easy game next on their schedule. That trend becomes stronger when the team is divisional home dogs before being non-divisional road favorites. Going back to 1989 to get a bigger sample size, teams are 29-14 ATS in that spot. They’ll be extra focused this week. This will be their Super Bowl, not just because it’s Atlanta, but because their season is over with a loss, while they don’t care about non-conference Oakland next week.

This game will mean a lot for the Falcons too. However, small road favorites (less than 3) are 3-11 ATS after 5 or more straight wins. Typically if a team has been playing this well lately and they’re still not big road favorites, there’s a good reason for that. If we look at the metrics for calculating real line, we see that the yards per play differential method gives us a real line of -1 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of -6.

Average those two out and you get -3.5 and, all of a sudden, this small line makes more sense, especially since you consider the Falcons will once again be without top linebacker Sean Weatherspoon. Without him last week, they allowed 377 yards to the Cowboys 24 yards over their season average going into last week and their 4th worst total allowed of the season. The Cowboys imploded in the red zone, which is why they got just 13 points, but the Saints are much better in the red zone. They score on 72% of their red zone trips, best in the NFL.

The Falcons have also been had a bunch of “too good to be true” lines in their games this year that actually made sense when you looked at the metrics, -7.5 for Carolina, -9 for Oakland, +2.5 in Philadelphia, -3 in Washington, -4 for Dallas, etc. That’s not done on purpose. The odds makers know they’re overrated. The public seems to be falling for the trap as most of the action is on the Saints. This week especially, that’s a bad thing.

As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back. I’ve bet against the Falcons in the last 2 weeks and lost, but I’m doing it again this week. They can’t keep this up every week. One of these inferior teams will knock them off and there’s a lot of stuff going against them this week.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if New Orleans covers)

Sharps lean: NO 12 ATL 9

Final update: No change.

New Orleans Saints 31 Atlanta Falcons 27 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: New Orleans +2.5 (-110) 3 units

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Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Bills, Patriots

Buffalo Bills (3-5) at New England Patriots (5-3)

Poor Bills. Last week they had to face the Texans and now they have to face the Patriots. Well, maybe it’s not so bad. While teams struggle as double digit dogs before being double digit dogs, 22-42 ATS since 2002, a situation the Bills lost in last week, it’s the exact opposite for double digit dogs after being double digit dogs, as long as they lost the week before. Teams in that spot are 36-22 ATS since 2002. Even better, the Bills are in their 2nd straight road game off a loss. Teams are 78-47 ATS since 2008 in that spot.

Meanwhile, as frequently as the Patriots have blown teams out in the last few years, they’ve struggled as favorites of more than a touchdown. They always seem to play down to the level of the competition as big favorites, going 5-10 ATS. That’s pretty remarkable considering how much of a covering machine they’ve been since 2010. In all other situations, they’re a ridiculous 21-8 ATS. We’ve already seen that twice this year as they lost at home to the Cardinals and needed overtime to beat the Jets. We could see a 3rd instance of that here, though double digit home favorites are 15-7 ATS off a bye since 2002.

We are getting a little bit of line value with the Patriots, but barely. The yards per play differential method gives us a real line of -7 and the rate of sustaining drives method gives us a real line of -17. If you average those out, you get a line of -12 and this line is -11. However, it’s just 1 point and given that both metrics are pretty far in each direction, it’s hard to say there’s noteworthy line value for either team.

Finally, we’re getting an opportunity to fade a heavy public lean. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back. It’s a significant play on the Bills.

Public lean: New England (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Buffalo covers)

Sharps lean: NE 8 BUF 2

Final update: No change.

New England Patriots 31 Buffalo Bills 24

Pick against spread: Buffalo +11 (-110) 3 units

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Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Raiders, Ravens

Oakland Raiders (3-5) at Baltimore Ravens (6-2)

The Ravens may be 6-2, but dating back to week 1, this team has not won a single game by 10 or more and only one was decided by more than a touchdown, last week at Cleveland, a game in which the lowly Browns actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, but frequently imploded in field goal range and had to settle for 5 field goals. During that stretch, they’ve had two less than stellar performances against the Browns, a 3 point road win against the lowly Chiefs, a near home loss to the Cowboys, and a blowout loss in Houston. This team hasn’t done anything remotely impressive since a 31-30 home win against the Patriots week 3.

Their defense has been destroyed by injuries and ranks 26th in yards per game allowed, while the offense ranks just 19th, producing more than 40 yards per game less than their defense allows and because of Joe Flacco’s inconsistencies, they remain a unit that cannot be relied on weekly to win the game for them if the defense isn’t playing well. They rank just 9th in yards per play differential and 19th in rate of sustaining drives differential. They’re pretty overrated right now.

The Raiders aren’t very good either, but we’re getting line value with them. The yards per play differential method gives us a real line of -7, but the rate of sustaining drives method, the one Baltimore really struggles in, says this line should be -3.5 as Oakland ranks 23th, as opposed to Baltimore ranking 19th. That says these two teams are pretty even. I’m not saying they are. We have to look at both metrics to give us the whole picture, but we’re definitely getting line value with the road team here and pretty significant line value. The Ravens don’t deserve to be -7.5 here.

We’re also getting an opportunity to fade a heavy public lean. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back.

Baltimore is also in a bad spot as they go to Pittsburgh next week, a huge game for them. They’re not going to be focused for the lowly non-divisional Raiders with that huge game on their schedule. They’re also coming off a divisional win against the Browns. Teams are 8-15 ATS as non-divisional touchdown favorites off a divisional win as favorites before being divisional dogs since 1989. It’s a very specific trend, but it makes sense. Why would the Ravens be focused for the Raiders after a divisional win before facing their biggest rival, the divisional Pittsburgh Steelers?

The Ravens have won 15 straight home games and they are 20-1 at home in the last 2 and a half seasons, but they’re also just 8-12 ATS at home in that stretch. They’re winning, but not by a lot, which has pretty much been the story of this Ravens’ season (2 wins by more than a touchdown). I love getting more than a touchdown with the Raiders. They’re also just 3-9 ATS as 7+ home dogs since 2010. If the Raiders didn’t have to play this game as a West Coast team at 1 PM ET on the East Coast, this would be a bigger play, but it’s still a significant play on the Raiders.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Oakland covers)

Sharps lean: BAL 6 OAK 4

Final update: No change.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spread: Oakland +7.5 (-110) 3 units

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New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Jets, Seahawks

New York Jets (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (5-4)

I’m so glad there isn’t a heavy public lean on Seattle this week. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back.

The reason I’m so glad there isn’t a heavy public lean on Seattle is because I love them this week. There’s a slight public lean, but not enough to deter me from making a big play on them. First off, Seattle is amazing at home. They’re undefeated at home this year. Dating back to 2007, they’re 31-14 ATS at home and this year’s team might be their most talented team in that stretch, part of the reason why they are 5-0 ATS at home this year. Since 2007, they are 15-6 ATS as home favorites and 10-1 ATS at home after a home game.

They balance everything out by going 16-30 ATS on the road in that stretch. For that reason, I’ve always said that the Seahawks should have to lay more than the traditional extra 3 points at home (and get more than 3 on the road). They outscore opponents by 4.4 points at home and get outscored by 8.3 on the road. Average those out and we should really be using something like 6 points in each direction for home field advantage when figuring out the real line for Seattle’s game. It’s such a big disparity.

This line is -6. The yards per play method of computing real line says this line should be -7 (taking into account just 3 points for home field) and the rate of sustaining drives method says this line should be -6. Even before you add what’s a necessary 6 points to Seattle’s total rather than 3 for home field, we are getting some line value with the Seahawks. Meanwhile, the original line of -6, using this new number for home field in Seattle’s game, suggests these two teams are even, which isn’t true at all.

Speaking of this line being -6, home favorites of 6 or more are 45-15 ATS before a bye and Seattle goes into a bye next week. When you take out 10+ home favorites from the equation, that trend becomes 33-8 ATS for home favorites of 6-9.5 before a bye. Home teams tend to be extra focused and take care of business going into a bye when they have a clear talent advantage over the opponent and don’t have to cover a double digit margin and that’s the case here. I know the Jets are coming off a bye, but that doesn’t seem to matter. Since 1989, home favorites of 6-9.5 are 6-3 ATS before a bye when their opponent is coming off a bye. It’s a small sample, but there’s certainly nothing to deter me. It’s a big play on Seattle.

Public lean: Seattle (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if NY Jets covers)

Sharps lean: NYJ 18 SEA 4

Final update: Once again going to disagree with the sharps. Seattle is great at home, great at home off a home game, and 6-9.5 points home favorites dominate going into a bye. Besides, the odds makers need favorites to cover (to continue to close the favorites/dogs disparity) and they also need to make their money back. Any favorite not publicly backed (this one has even action) is a good idea.

Seattle Seahawks 27 New York Jets 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -6 (-110) 4 units

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Chicago Bears: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

Last week: 3 (+2)

Record: 7-1

Back to this. I really broke my own rule by overreacting to the Bears’ near lose to the lowly Panthers and dropping them down even though I’ve never been sold on Atlanta. The Bears’ huge blowout win helped me see the light. Jay Cutler is now 12-1 in his last 13 games, which would be 12 in a row if you exclude their Thursday Night loss in Green Bay. Obviously, you can’t ignore that game, but it was a while ago, it was on short rest, and it was on the road against a tough opponent, so I don’t put much stock into it.

They run the ball well. They play incredible defense, even though you can’t expect them to continue to score defensively at this rate the rest of the way because no one ever has. With guys like Julius Peppers, Henry Melton, Lance Briggs, Brian Urlacher, Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings, and Major Wright, they have so many talented defensive players. Offensively, they can run the ball, Jay Cutler is playing well. The only issue is the offensive line, but Jay Cutler is so hard to sack. I think they’ll continue to be fine. However, with two games against Houston and San Francisco in the next 2 weeks, we’ll get an answer real soon.

Studs

RB Matt Forte: Rushed for 103 yards (61 yards after contact) and a touchdown on 12 carries, 2 broken tackles, caught 2 passes for 45 yards on 2 attempts

C Roberto Garza: Didn’t allow a pressure on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 27 yards on 6 attempts

RG Lance Louis: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 3 attempts

WR Brandon Marshall: Caught 9 passes for 122 yards on 9 attempts, 2.3 YAC per catch, 3 drops

QB Jay Cutler: 19 of 26 for 229 yards and 3 touchdowns, 2 throw aways, 1 batted pass, 114.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 13 of 30 drop backs (3 sacks, 1 scramble, 4 of 9, 2 touchdowns, 2 throw away)

CB Charles Tillman: Allowed 8 catches for 71 yards on 10 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 9 solo tackles, 3 stops

MLB Brian Urlacher: Allowed 2 catches for 26 yards on 5 attempts, 1 interception, 7 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes

K Robbie Gould: 10 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, 70.4 yards per kickoff, 18.7 opponent’s average starting position, 3/3 FG (22, 25, 40)

Duds

TE Kellen Davis: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 8 pass block snaps, didn’t catch a pass on 24 pass snaps

RT Gabe Carimi: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

LT J’Marcus Webb: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 32 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for -1 yards on 3 attempts

RE Julius Peppers: Did not record a pressure on 23 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Houston Texans: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Texans

Last week: 2 (+0)

The Texans didn’t put much effort into their game against the Bills, though they still won by 12, so I’m not going to put much effort into this write up. They’ll win the AFC’s top seed with ease regardless of what happens. They really only play 2 teams with close to their talent level the rest of the way, Chicago (this week) and New England, and even if they lose both, only the banged up Ravens, who they blew out and who they hold the tiebreaker with, have less than 3 losses in the AFC, while Houston only has 1. Those two games will just be bench marks games for them to prove themselves because they got blown out by the Packers at home, the only really tough opponent they had (keep in mind, Denver hadn’t hit their stride yet when they played and I don’t count Baltimore).

Studs

QB Matt Schaub: 19 of 27 for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns, 1 throw away, 105.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured 7 on 29 drop backs (2 sacks, 2 of 5, 1 throw away)

WR Andre Johnson: Caught 8 passes for 118 yards on 10 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 6.4 YAC per catch

TE Owen Daniels: Caught 4 passes for 62 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts on 25 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch

LE JJ Watt: 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries on 44 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 5 stops

CB Johnathan Joseph: Allowed 5 catches for 48 yards on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop

P Donnie Jones: 5 punts for 247 yards, 0 inside 20, 4 returns for 37 yards, 42.0 net yards per punt

Duds

C Chris Myers: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback pressure on 31 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 46 yards on 13 attempts

MLB Tim Dobbins: Allowed 8 catches for 97 yards on 9 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

RE Antonio Smith: 2 quarterback hurries on 39 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

K Shayne Graham: 4 kickoff, 0 touchbacks, 51.5 yards per kickoff, 26.5 opponent’s average starting position, 0/1 FG

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 1 (-2)

Record: 8-0

The Falcons are an undefeated 8-0, but they have not played a tough schedule (it doesn’t really get harder) and they’ve won 5 of their 8 games by a touchdown or less, including 4 at home. They’ve beaten everyone on their schedule and they’ve been able to eke out victories, but at the end of the day, if I’m an AFC team, I’m way more scared of the Bears than the Falcons. I don’t like the Falcons to go 16-0 either even against a week schedule. At least one of these inferior teams that they keep barely beaten will trip them up one of these weeks. It could easily be the Saints in New Orleans this Sunday.

Studs

QB Matt Ryan: 24 of 34 for 342 yards, 2 drops, 98.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 16 of 38 drop backs (3 sacks, 1 scramble, 9 of 12)

WR Roddy White: Caught 7 passes for 118 yards on 10 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch

WR Julio Jones: Caught 5 passes for 129 yards on 6 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 11.0 YAC per catch

DT Jonathan Babineaux: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 35 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

LE Kroy Biermann: 3 quarterback hurries on 18 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

Duds

LT Sam Baker: Allowed 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 attempts

FB Lousaka Polite: Didn’t catch a pass on 1 attempt on 4 pass snaps, 1 drop, allowed 1 sack on 2 pass block snaps

CB Dunta Robinson: Allowed 5 catches for 108 yards on 7 attempts, 2 penalties, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist

ROLB Stephen Nicholas: 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles, allowed 6 catches for 83 yards on 7 attempts, 1 quarterback hit on 7 blitzes

RE John Abraham: 1 quarterback hurry on 27 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

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Denver Broncos: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos

Last week: 5 (+0)

Record: 5-3

The Broncos sit at 5-3 and rank 2nd in yards per play differential and 9th in rate of sustaining drives differential with momentum on their side and they’ve done this despite one of the toughest schedules in the league thus far. From this point on, they have one of the league’s easiest schedules, with games against Tampa Bay, Carolina, San Diego, Oakland, Baltimore, Cleveland, and two against Kansas City. They could challenge the Patriots’ for the 2nd seed in the AFC, but the Patriots have the tiebreaker, so they have the advantage there. That would leave Peyton Manning the Broncos in the 3rd seed and possibly facing his replacement Andrew Luck and his greatest rival Tom Brady in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs.

Studs

QB Peyton Manning: 27 of 35 for 291 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, 4 drops, 108.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 3 of 35 drop backs (2 of 3, 1 interception)

C Dan Koppen: Didn’t allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 34 yards on 7 attempts

RT Orlando Franklin: Didn’t allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps

RG Chris Kuper: Didn’t allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 6 attempts

LOLB Wesley Woodyard: Allowed 6 catches for 29 yards on 8 attempts, 10 solo tackles, 3 assists, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

CB Chris Harris: Allowed 2 catches for 12 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles

CB Tony Carter: Allowed 1 catch for 17 yards on 4 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 solo tackle

ROLB Von Miller: 3 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, 2 quarterback hurries, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

RB Willis McGahee: Rushed for 66 yards (51 after contact) on 23 carries, 1 broken tackle, caught 1 pass for 4 yards on 1 attempt

SS Mike Adams: Allowed 5 catches for 49 yards on 5 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

LE Derek Wolfe: 1 quarterback hurry on 47 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

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