Year: 2012

Tennessee Titans: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Titans

Last week: 25 (-2)

Record: 3-6

The Titans have won 3 games by a combined 7 points and lost 6 by a combined 133 points, giving them a league worst points differential of -126. After allowing 317 points all of last year, 8th best in the league, they’ve allowed 308 through 9 games this year, by far the worst. However, last week it wasn’t really their defense’s problem. The Bears jumped out to a 28-2 lead thanks to a punt block touchdown, a pick six, and two short touchdown drives off of a fumble recovery and a long punt return. In fact, the Titans’ defense actually scored before the offense did, forcing a safety. The Bears scored 28 points on 54 yards and while the Titans allowed another 22 after that, the game was out of reach at that point and they likely weren’t giving it 100%, which is understandable.

Studs

C Fernando Velasco: Didn’t allow a pressure on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 43 yards on 7 attempts

RT David Stewart: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 3 attempts

LOLB Zach Brown: 9 solo tackles, 7 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 2 catches for 8 yards on 2 attempts

ROLB Akeem Ayers: Allowed 1 catch for 5 yards on 1 attempt, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops, 1 penalty, 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes

LE Derrick Morgan: 2 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback hurries on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

DT Sen’Derrick Marks: 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 29 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 5 solo tackles, 5 stops

Duds

WR Kendall Wright: Caught 2 passes for 30 yards on 6 attempts on 20 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

TE Jared Cook: Caught 2 passes for 6 yards on 5 attempts on 30 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Jason McCourty: Allowed 5 catches for 90 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 1 penalty, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

MLB Colin McCarthy: Allowed 3 catches for 68 yards on 3 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops

FS Michael Griffin: Allowed 2 catches for 18 yards and 2 touchdowns on 2 attempts, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle

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Cleveland Browns: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 28 (+0)

Record: 2-7

Once again the Browns played a team close and came up short this week. Against Baltimore, they actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, scoring 5 field goals, which Baltimore just scored 4 times, though they got 3 touchdowns and a field goal. The Browns imploded once they got into field goal range thanks to some bad play calling. They also had a touchdown wiped off the board by a penalty.

They’ve been competitive in every game. They led the Giants 14-0 early before losing 41-27. All of the rest of their games have been decided by 10 points or less and in several games they were one play away from winning. Josh Gordon dropped an easy touchdown in a 4 point loss to the Colts and Greg Little did the same in a 7 point loss to the Ravens in their first meeting.

They have some nice pieces, but you have to wonder if Head Coach Pat Shurmur will make it to next season with a new ownership and front office coming in. I still think they’re not a team to be taken lightly going forward, much like the Dolphins last season, who started 0-7, but finished 6-3. Their schedule gives them two easy home games against Washington and Kansas City and a winnable road game in Oakland in the 2nd part of their schedule after their bye.

Studs

LT Joe Thomas: Didn’t allow a pressure on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

LG John Greco: Didn’t allow a pressure on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yards on 2 attempts, 1 penalty

C Alex Mack: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 51 yards on 11 attempts

RT Mitchell Schwartz: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

CB Sheldon Brown: Allowed 1 catch for 5 yards on 4 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

LOLB Kaluka Maiava: Didn’t allow a catch on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 penalty

SS TJ Ward: Didn’t allow a catch on 1 attempt, 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 1 penalty

LE Jabaal Sheard: 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 23 pass rush snaps, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops

Duds

QB Brandon Weeden: 20 of 37 for 176 yards and 2 interceptions, 4 throw aways, 2 drops, 61.4 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 40 drop backs (1 sack, 1 scramble, 3 of 10, 2 interceptions, 3 throw aways, 1 drop)

RB Trent Richardson: Rushed for 105 yards (55 after contact) on 25 carries, 6 broken tackles, 1 fumble, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 4 pass block snaps, caught 6 passes for 31 yards on 8 attempts, 1 drop

FB Alex Smith: Caught 3 passes for 8 yards on 4 attempts, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 9 pass block snaps

WR Josh Gordon: Caught 2 passes for 38 yards on 3 attempts, 1.5 YAC per catch, 2 penalties

TE Jordan Cameron: Didn’t catch a pass on 2 attempts on 12 pass snaps, 1 interception when thrown to, 1 penalty

CB Joe Haden: Allowed 5 catches for 88 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 penalty

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Carolina Panthers: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Panthers

Last week: 30 (-1)

Record: 2-6

Last week I mentioned that Cam Newton is 1-10 in his career in games decided by a touchdown or less. Well, the good news is that he’s 6-7 in his other 13 games. Typically, records in touchdown games even out over time. Teams that win a game by a touchdown or less win their following game 52% of the time if that game is also decided by a touchdown or less. If that were the case in his 11 close games, he’d have around a .500 career record, instead of being 7-17, which wouldn’t be bad considering that they don’t have a great supporting cast. Meanwhile, as disappointing as his 2012 has been, they have the exact same record through 8 games as they did last year, when Newton was the next big thing.

This year, he has just one loss by more than a touchdown and that was on Thursday Night, when it’s understandable for a young quarterback to have a bad game. They have just a -31 points differential this year and while they rank 29th in rate of sustaining drives differential, they are 3rd in yards per play differential. They’re an underrated team who could continue to surprise people like they did to Washington last week. For the record, last year I thought Newton was overrated and this offseason he was given too high of expectations, but now that he hasn’t met them, people have soured on him and he’s become underrated.

Studs

RT Byron Bell: Didn’t allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 37 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

LE Charles Johnson: 3 sacks and 7 quarterback hurries on 41 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 2 assists, 4 stops, 2 missed tackles

RE Greg Hardy: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 41 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 6 stops, 3 missed tackles

CB Josh Thomas: Allowed 1 catch for -9 yards on 1 attempt, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

CB Captain Munnerlyn: 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 6 catches for 31 yards on 9 attempts

Duds

RG Jeff Byers: Allowed 2 pressures on 29 pass block snaps

WR Louis Murphy: Caught 1 pass for 4 yards on 2 attempts on 26 pass snaps

RE Frank Alexander: Didn’t record a pressure on 32 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

DT Dwan Edwards: 2 quarterback hurries on 38 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 3 assists, 1 stop, 3 missed tackles

MLB Luke Kuechly: Allowed 6 catches for 67 yards on 8 attempts, 9 solo tackles, 5 assists, 6 stops, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Thomas Davis: 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops, 3 missed tackles, allowed 3 catches for 46 yards on 5 attempts

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Oakland Raiders: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Raiders

Last week: 30 (-1)

Record: 3-5

Oakland/Tampa Bay was a crazy game for statistics. Everyone knows about Doug Martin’s 272 total yards and 4 total touchdowns, which was the 4th highest single game fantasy football total in history. However, we also had Carson Palmer throw for 414 yards and 4 touchdowns in a losing effort for just the 7th time in NFL history. Meanwhile, because of injuries to running backs Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson, the Raiders ran just 11 times to 62 passes, just the 2nd time in NFL history a team ran 50+ fewer times than they passes. Fullback Marcel Reece took over as the running back after McFadden and Goodson got hurt, but did not get a single carry. He did, however, lead the team with 8 catches for 96 yards and a touchdown.

Studs

LG Cooper Carlisle: Didn’t allow a pressure on 68 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 2 attempts

C Stefen Wisniewski: Didn’t allow a pressure on 68 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 1 attempt

FB Marcel Reece: Caught 8 passes for 95 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts

LE Lamarr Houston: 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

RE Andre Carter: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 12 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

RT Willie Smith: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 68 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

CB Michael Huff: Allowed 5 catches for 147 yards and 2 touchdowns on 7 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist

LOLB Miles Burris: Allowed 5 catches for 45 yards on 5 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 4 missed tackles, 2 quarterback hurries on 9 blitzes

DT Tommy Kelly: Did not record a pressure on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 missed tackle

DT Richard Seymour: 1 quarterback hurry on 29 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 1-7

I still like the Chiefs more than the Jaguars as long as Matt Cassel is their quarterback. As long as his turnover rate regresses somewhat to the mean going forward, he’s their best option at quarterback. If not for two defensive touchdowns, the Chiefs could have easily hung with and beaten the Chargers. I suspect with better turnover luck going forward, they will have a couple chances to eke out some victories.

Right now they’re at -20 in turnovers on the year. Even if they were to tie the NFL record of -30, that would still mean a twofold improvement in their turnover margin in the 2nd half of the season. For the record, the record since the merger is -28. Turnovers aside, they rank 31st in yards per play differential and 24th in rate of sustaining drives differential. I would pick them to beat the Jaguars, who are dead last in both, if they played.

Speaking of those two terrible teams, we have to watch them in back to back weeks on Thursday Night Football. I hate this new “everyone gets a primetime game” thing. We shouldn’t have to watch crappy games in primetime just to be fair to everyone. Besides, if you’re not a good team, why would you even want to be on TV for millions to see?

Studs

ROLB Tamba Hali: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 16 pass rush snaps, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops

Duds

WR Dexter McCluster: Caught 2 passes for 17 yards on 6 attempts on 34 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 1 interception when thrown to

LG Ross Hochstein: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 27 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 3 attempts

CB Travis Daniels: Allowed 4 catches for 70 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

MLB Jovan Belcher: 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 1 attempt

RE Ropati Pitoitua: Did not record a pressure on 6 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 1-7

The Jaguars lost at home by 17 to the Lions last week and some people are crediting the Jaguars’ trade of Mike Thomas to the Lions right before the game as part of the reason. The move was actually a good one for the Jaguars because they were able to get rid of his contract and get something in return for a guy who was no better than their 4th receiver at this point, but the timing was at best peculiar and at worst dumb. Thomas could have given the Lions some of the Jaguars offensive secrets like Blaine Gabbert sucks and the offense is nothing without Maurice Jones-Drew and Blaine Gabbert sucks. That information is clearly why they were able to win.

Studs

LT Eugene Monroe: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 43 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 attempt

P Bryan Anger: 4 punts for 202 yards, 3 inside 20, no returns, 50.5 net yards per punt

Duds

LG Mike Brewster: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback hurries on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

CB Derek Cox: Allowed 8 catches for 121 yards on 9 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

SS Dawan Landry: Allowed 2 catches for 37 yards on 2 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops

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Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Colts, Jaguars

Indianapolis Colts (5-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7)

Every once in a while I kick myself for not taking a line the week before. I’ve never put money on an early line, but here’s one instance I wish I had. Jacksonville was -1 last week. Even if Indianapolis had lost to Miami, I would have put a big play against Blaine Gabbert as a favorite. Aside from the obvious Blaine Gabbert sucks stuff, divisional home dogs are 10-28 ATS before being divisional double digit road dogs since 1989. The Jaguars go to Houston next weekend.

At the same time, teams are 57-82 ATS as favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs, the classic sandwich game. Jacksonville lost to Detroit as dogs last week. Meanwhile, road dogs trying to avenge a same season home upset loss are 50-25 ATS since 2002. The Colts lost at home as favorites to the Jaguars earlier this season.

Not only is that a good spot, things are completely different for these two teams than it was last time they played. The Colts have won 4 of 5 since, with that one loss coming in a game in which they were flat off a huge emotional win, the first ChuckStrong victory. Meanwhile, Maurice Jones-Drew is out for the Jaguars. He was 40% of their offense this year, in terms of yards from scrimmage, before his injury, which was actually down from the 47% he was last year, which was the highest by a non-quarterback since OJ Simpson in 1974.

The Jaguars would have had no chance of winning last time without Maurice Jones-Drew, who rushed for 177 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries against a banged up Colts defense, allowing them to win despite Blaine Gabbert going 10 of 21 for 155 yards and a touchdown. It’s worth noting that 80 of those yards and the touchdown game on one play to Cecil Shorts, in which the receiver did most of the work.

And it wasn’t just in that game. Maurice Jones-Drew was instrumental in the Jaguars’ two wins over the Colts last year, rushing for 283 yards and a score on 50 carries in those 2 games. Gabbert, meanwhile, combined to complete 25 of 40 for just 210 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick in those two performances. As bad as the Colts’ were last year, Gabbert could have easily lost both of those games last year without MJD. In MJD’s absence, Rashad Jennings has rushed for a pathetic 148 yards and a touchdown on 50 carries in 3 games.

Speaking of the Colts’ previously banged up defense, they’re much healthier this time around than they were last time around, at least in the front 7, which is most instrumental to stopping the run. Both Dwight Freeney and Pat Angerer missed that game. They are now healthy, as are all of their front 7 starters. The Jaguars won’t be able to run it nearly as well as they did last time thanks to MJD’s injury and the Colts’ improved injury situation in the front 7. The Colts will be missing both starting cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Jerraud Powers, but I have no faith in Gabbert to do much against them.

All that being said, this line has shifted from Jacksonville -1 to Indianapolis -3.5 in the last week. That might not seem like a lot, but it’s one of the biggest single week line shifts I’ve ever seen that was unrelated to a quarterback getting hurt or something like that. The good news is that all it really did was shift to where it should have been all along. The Colts are not overrated because of the line shift; they were just underrated last week, as they had been all season (-1 at home for Cleveland, +2 at home for Miami, -3 at home for Jacksonville, +7 at home for Green Bay, +1 at home for Minnesota, etc.)

We are actually still getting a little bit of line value with the Colts. The yards per play differential method of computing line value gives us a real line of Indianapolis -3 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method of computing line value gives us a real line of Indianapolis -8. That’s not taking into account fully these two team’s momentum and injury situations. This isn’t because the Colts are particularly good in either statistic. In fact, they’re outside of the top-10 in each, ranking 13th in rate of sustaining drives and 24th in yards per play differential (despite their 5-3 record, they still have a significant negative points differential, -32).

It’s because the Jaguars are so terrible. No one is within 2.4% of their dead last rate of sustaining drives differential and they have the league’s worst yards per play differential as well. The Jaguars are also still in a bad spot. Teams are 34-60 ATS before being divisional double digit dogs since 2002. That makes sense. Teams tend to be distracted before having to play what’s probably the division leader.

The bad news, however, with the line shift, is that there’s still a ton of public action on the Colts. If you don’t know, the odds makers caught killed last week, losing 12 of 14 games, including all of the heavy leans. That’s not going to continue, at the very least. At the most, we might see some sketchy things happen in games with heavy leans. I hate the combination of the giant line shift, the heavy public action, and the odds makers needing to make money back.

It’s reckless to put any money on the Colts this week. The Jaguars suck as well and the Colts, in normal circumstances, should be the right side, in spite of the line movement, because we’re still getting line value with them. However, in this situation, if I had to, gun to my head, Jacksonville would be the pick. This would be a zero-unit pick if I did them.

Indianapolis will probably win because they’re a much better team, but we could easily see some sort of sketchy backdoor cover with the Colts winning by 3. It’s not smart to bet on the Colts this week. They’re also in a few bad spots as well. First, they’re coming off a home win of 3 or fewer. Teams are 30-51 ATS off a close win as home dogs since 2002, including 8-15 ATS as favorites. Since 1989, teams are 7-16 ATS as divisional road favorites off a close home win as dogs. Meanwhile, road favorites are 8-19 ATS since 1989 after 2 or more straight wins as a dog. Finally, teams with 1 win or fewer are 77-42 ATS as divisional dogs after week 8 since 1989. I do like the under a lot more than either side. The under is 70-53 on Thursday Nights. These tend to be ugly games.

Public lean: Indianapolis (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)

Indianapolis Colts 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +3.5 (-110) 1 unit

Total: Under 42.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Week 10 Fantasy Football Waiver Claims

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football, 2012 Waiver Claims

RB Marcel Reece (Oakland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.2%

Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson both have high ankle sprains and will likely miss at least one game, if not several. In their absence, Marcel Reece, the fullback, carried the load at running back. Taiwan Jones is the 3rd string running back, but the Raiders trust Reece more in passing situations, so he’s the back to own this week, especially in PPR leagues. He led the Raiders with 8 catches for 95 yards and a score through the air last week.

RB Taiwan Jones (Oakland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 2.6%

Of course, Jones is not a bad pickup either. He didn’t see much action last week, but that’s because the Raiders abandoned the run completely down several scores after McFadden and Goodson got hurt. Reece and Goodson combined for just 1 carry, though Reece obviously did damage through the air. Next week, I would imagine they’d split touches, with Reece staying in on passing downs. As long as the Raiders don’t give up on the run completely like that, there’s some value with both backs, but I like Reece more because the Raiders figure to be trailing in Baltimore next week for most of the game.

RB James Starks (Green Bay)

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.9%

Apparently Alex Green wasn’t impressing anyone. Starks led the way with 17 carries like Green’s 11 last week and is definitely worth picking up this week. The Packers don’t run enough for Starks to be startable unless he shows he’s the feature guy, but he’s worth a bench stash for now.

WR Cecil Shorts (Jacksonville)

Percent owned (ESPN): 17.1%

If you want to own a Jacksonville receiver, Shorts is the guy you want. He’s managed to put up nice numbers over the past few weeks, despite his quarterback’s limitations, catching 15 passes for 251 yards and a touchdown and last week led the team in receiving even though supposed #1 receiver and free agency bust Laurent Robinson returned from injury.

TE Dwayne Allen (Indianapolis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.1%

With Coby Fleener out, Dwayne Allen caught 6 passes for 75 yards last week. Luck won’t throw for 433 like that every week, but Allen had a role in the passing offense in a more modest passing showing against Tennessee, catching 4 passes for 56 yards. As long as Fleener is out, and he should be out at least another week, Allen’s a decent bye week filler or injury replacement at tight end.

WR Emmanuel Sanders (Pittsburgh)

Percent owned (ESPN): 1.6%

Antonio Brown suffered a high ankle sprain and probably won’t play this week. Sanders didn’t do much last week after Brown got hurt in the middle of the game, catching 2 passes for 20 yards, but he faces Kansas City’s crappy secondary this week so he might be startable.

RB Joique Bell (Detroit)

Percent owned (ESPN): 3.8%

Bell had his biggest game of the season this week and his usage continues to go up as a pass catching back behind Mikel Leshoure. He’s received 27 touches in the last 2 weeks and is worth a look in deeper leagues and PPR leagues. Keep in mind though, Detroit won’t run 34 times every week like that, but Bell should still be in line for 8-12 touches weekly.

TE Logan Paulsen (Washington)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.8%

Paulsen continues to be a reliable receiver for Robert Griffin in the absence of Fred Davis. He’s now caught 13 passes for 178 yards in the league 3 weeks. If you need a bye week filler at tight end or play in a deep league, Paulsen isn’t a bad option.

TE Brandon Myers (Oakland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 7.0%

Believe it or not, Brandon Myers is actually on pace to catch 78 passes for 884 yards through 8 games. He also finally got into the end zone last week for the first time all season, scoring twice. He should score a few more times this year and provide consistent yardage on a week to week basis. He’s gone over 55 in 5 of his 8 games.

RB Chris Ivory (New Orleans)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.4%

He’s a completely different type back, but Ivory still appears to be the biggest beneficiary of Darren Sproles’ injury as he led the Saints in carries with 10 after being irrelevant for the first 7 weeks of the season. The 48 yards he rushed for was sadly the Saints’ 3rd highest single game rushing yards total on the year and he deserves more looks going forward. He looked better than Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas have most of the year, though it may have just been Philadelphia’s crappy defense.

RB Lance Dunbar (Dallas)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.1%

This week, it was Lance Dunbar, not Phillip Tanner to steal carries away from an ailing Felix Jones. DeMarco Murray is still out indefinitely and Dunbar, who rushed for 26 yards on 8 carries, might sadly be their best backfield option right now. It’s worth monitoring to see if his workload increases next week.

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Week 9 NFL Picks Results

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks

Week 9 Results

ATS: 9-5 +4 units/+$270

SU: 11-3

Upset Picks: 3-2 +600

Over/Under: 0-1 -110

Total: +$760

Public Results ATS*: 12-2 +32 units

2012 results to date

ATS: 66-61-5 +14 units/-$115

SU: 85-47

Upset Picks: 25-24 +$2140

Over/Under: 5-3-1 +170

Parlays: 1-0 +100

Total: +2295

Survivor: 7-2 (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD)

Public Results ATS*: 63-67-2 +1 unit

*I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public win, if not, it’s a public loss. If a team that has 50-59% of the action on it covers, the public gets “one unit,” if they don’t cover, they lose one unit, 60-69% is 2, 70-79% is 3, etc.

Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bears, Titans

Chicago Bears (6-1) at Tennessee Titans (3-5)

This was the toughest game of the week for me. At first glance, this looked like a trap line which is normally a good thing to bet against when sportsbetting online. There is heavy public action on Chicago and yet the line is falling (it opened at -5 and -4.5 and now it’s at -4 and -3.5). However, normally I like to find a trend or a few in the other team’s favor with potential trap lines and I had trouble finding one for Tennessee.

Tennessee is coming off a home overtime loss. Teams are 81-62 ATS in this spot since 1989. However, teams off a home overtime loss as favorites are just 44-38 ATS since 1989, which isn’t as strong. In fact, as dogs off a home overtime loss as favorites, teams are just 20-24 ATS. As home dogs, they are 3-0 ATS, which isn’t a very big sample size at all. There may be something there that says to take Tennessee, but it isn’t strong.

Often times what I like to do when I can’t find a trend for a team coming off an overtime game of any kind is I like to substitute overtime for just close games in general, meaning games decided by a touchdown or less. That didn’t help me much. Teams are 281-246 ATS off a home loss of 7 or fewer since 2002. Going down to 2008, that trend is 118-111 ATS. Off a close home loss as favorites, teams are 71-61 ATS and as dogs off a close home loss as favorites, teams are 41-30 ATS. Off a divisional close home loss as favorites, teams are 11-12 ATS as dogs the following week, including 28-34 ATS since 2002. As home dogs, that trend is 5-3 ATS and when we go back to 1989 to get a bigger sample size, the trend is just 12-14 ATS. Again, there may be something there, but it isn’t strong.

The only “strong” trend in found in Tennessee’s favor is that road favorites are just 5-13 ATS since 1989 off back to back home wins as favorites in which they failed to cover, which is the case for Chicago. Again, it’s a very small sample. To get a bigger sample size, I looked at teams in general coming off back to back home wins as favorites in which they failed to cover and teams are 15-22 ATS. When I expanded to teams coming off back to back wins in general in which they didn’t cover, that trend is 44-48 ATS. Once again, there may be something there, but it’s not strong.

Furthermore, we aren’t getting line value with the Titans. Using the traditional yards per play differential method, this line should be Chicago -1.5 because Chicago is actually a very average team in yards per play differential, so using just that method, it does appear we have line value with the Titans. A lot of sharps do use that method, which is why sharps may be on the Titans this week, but I don’t use just that method.

I created another statistic called rate of sustaining drives differential, which compares how often on a given set of downs you convert for a 1st down or a score, as opposed to how often your opponent does so. This statistic underrates teams that get a lot of big plays and/or don’t allow a lot of big plays, but those are the exact same teams yards per play differential underrates. Big plays are great, but you need to be able to stay on the field offensively or get off the field defensively. Meanwhile, sustaining drives is great and limiting your opponent’s ability to do so is great, but if your offense has no explosion and you’re allowing a lot of big plays, that’s not good. I think these statistics work really well in tandem.

Using that method, we see that Chicago should actually be -8.5. I’m not saying either one is right, but it’s smart to use both to find teams that one statistic under or overrates. In this case, there appears to be no line value either way and if there is, it’s actually in favor of Chicago, because when you average out these two numbers, you get -5.

On top of that, Tennessee has the league’s worst points differential at -95, excluding Kansas City, who surpassed them with their showing on Thursday Night Football. That’s because of their horrific defense. They rank 27th against the pass, 26th against the run, allow 32.1 points per game, 2nd worst in the league, and just made Ryan Fitzpatrick look like a franchise quarterback 2 weeks ago. Going back to rate of sustaining drives, they’re one of 2 teams with an opponent’s rate of sustaining drives higher than 80% as they sit at 84.4%, meaning on any given set of downs, they allow a first down or a score 84.4% of the time. That’s worst in the league. The Saints are next worst at 82.9%. They’re horrendous. Meanwhile, Chicago is one of the top teams in the league.

The Titans also come from an inferior conference (the NFC is 20-12 against the AFC) and they will once again be missing stud left tackle Michael Roos. Replacement Mike Otto was surprisingly good in his first start last week, but there’s no guarantee that will continue, especially since he’ll be matched up with Julius Peppers this week. I can’t take Chicago because of the trap line potential, but it’s a very small play on Tennessee. If I did 0-unit picks, this would be one of them.

Public lean: Chicago (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Sharps lean: CHI 10 TEN 8

Final update: One injury update: Michael Roos will play. I still don’t have a good feel for this game though and neither do the sharps apparently. I’d pick Tennessee if I had to, but it’d be ranked dead last in any confidence pools.

Chicago Bears 23 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against spread: Tennessee +4 (-110) 1 unit

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