Year: 2012

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Oakland Raiders: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Raiders

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) at Oakland Raiders (3-4)

After unimpressive wins over the Jaguars and Chiefs, the Raiders now sit at 3-4 and are somehow in the AFC playoff mix. However, they still aren’t very good. They have a point differential of -42. They got blown out in Oakland and in Miami and they weren’t impressive in either of their last 2 wins against crappy teams. They beat the Steelers in Oakland, but the Titans beat them in Tennessee. They also lost at home to San Diego and while they played the Falcons tough in Atlanta, so did the Panthers.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are at 3-4 as well, but they come from a tougher conference (the NFC is 20-12 against the AFC) and they’ve had more impressive wins. They also have a +31 points differential and they have yet to lose by more than a touchdown all year. Josh Freeman is 82 of 143 (57.3%) for 1309 yards (9.2 YPA), 10 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in his last 4 games.

He’s a natural deep ball thrower who was afraid to throw deep last season, throwing longer than 20 yards through the air on just 6.5% of his throws, by far least in the league, despite being accurate of 52.8% of them, 3rd best in the NFL. This year, thanks to new found chemistry with free agent acquisition Vincent Jackson, he is going deep 6th most in the league, 13.5% and, more importantly, has the 3rd highest accuracy percentage, 56.7%, completing 16 of 30 for 669 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 1 drop. I believe this is here to stay.

In spite of this, Oakland is favorites here, even if only by 1 point. The yards per play method actually suggests they should be 5.5 point favorites, but the rate of sustaining drives method suggests this should be a pick em. Tampa Bay has the momentum right now, so I don’t think there’s line value either way. Tampa Bay is also in a good spot as dogs before being favorites. Teams are 86-49 ATS in this spot since 2011. They host San Diego next week.

Meanwhile, Oakland is in a bunch of bad spots here as favorites. Bad teams in general struggle as favorites and I think they are a bad team. Demonstrating this, the Raiders are actually 9-27 ATS as favorites since 2003, going back to the year after their last winning season. Furthermore, home favorites are 146-225 ATS before being dogs in 3+ straight since 1989, which makes sense since those teams to be bad teams. Oakland’s next 3 games send them to Baltimore, home for New Orleans, and to Cincinnati.

Speaking of that Baltimore game, they could be 10 point dogs there. Teams are 25-48 ATS as favorites before being 10+ dogs since 2002. Again, bad teams are bad as favorites. When they are coming off another game in which they were dogs, that record is 17-34 ATS. This goes well with the sandwich game trend. Favorites are 81-117 ATS before and after being dogs since 2008.

Teams are also just 2-10 ATS as favorites before being 10+ dogs after a win as dogs since 2002. That expands to 8-21 ATS since 1989. They could also be just 7+ dogs next week, but it wouldn’t make much difference. Since 1989, teams are 29-57 ATS as favorites after being dogs before being 7+ dogs, 13-31 ATS after a win as dogs.

These are all variations of the sandwich game trend and they demonstrate the fact that bad teams struggle as favorites. We’re getting points with the better team here, I believe. All of the trends are against Oakland. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is rested off Thursday Night football. Teams are 114-93 ATS on Sunday Night after Thursday Night. They’re also in their 2nd straight road game. This tends to be a good spot. Teams are 191-138 ATS in their 2nd straight road game since 2008, including 94-61 ATS in their 2nd straight as road dogs and 30-19 ATS off a win as road dogs. It’s strongest with road dogs off a road loss, but there’s a trend in this situation here too.

This would be a bigger pick if we were getting line value. This line shifted 2 points in the last week because of Tampa Bay’s strong showing on Thursday Night Football and Tampa Bay is a public dog this week. However, I still like the Buccaneers. Instead of putting 3 units on the spread and 1 on the money line, I’m putting all 4 on the money line. It’s not worth the extra 15 cents to get protection from a one point loss.

Public lean: Tampa Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Oakland covers)

Sharps lean: TB 14 OAK 4

Final update: Another sharps lean lining up with one of my big picks. Good to see. I think I’ll add a unit. I feel really good about this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Oakland Raiders 20 Upset Pick +105 5 units

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +1 (-110) 0 units

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers trade CB Aqib Talib to the New England Patriots

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Buccaneers, Offseason Moves 2012, Patriots

Trade for Patriots: I absolutely love this trade for the Patriots. They desperately need cornerback help. They have a few young cornerbacks, but none of them are playing well. Tom Brady is 35 so their Super Bowl window is closing. They need a short term solution so they don’t have to rely on developmental cornerbacks like Alfonzo Dennard, Kyle Arrington, and the recently released Sterling Moore. This might be the missing piece in their Super Bowl puzzle. They were contenders before this trade, but now, they’re even deadlier as they’ve upgraded one of their only weaknesses. Any time you can potentially acquire the missing piece to a Super Bowl team, it’s a good trade, especially for a mid round pick.

The Buccaneers gave up on Talib because he’s in a contract year and because of his off the field issues, but he’s still a proven cornerback. He’s still got 2 more games left on his suspension for adderall, but the Patriots will have him around for the stretch run which is what matters. He will start opposite Devin McCourty, who will probably be moving back to cornerback when Patrick Chung returns and help a pass defense that ranks 29th against the pass right now. Between McCourty (a better cornerback than safety), Talib, Patrick Chung (when he returns), and talented rookie Alfonzo Dennard, this secondary is going to look a lot better in a couple of weeks than it does now and shore up their only real weakness.

In 2010, he allowed 35 of 59 (59.3%) for 502 yards (8.5 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while deflecting 7 passes and committing 2 penalties. In 2011, he allowed 28 of 51 (54.9%) for 479 yards (9.4 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 6 penalties. This year, he’s allowed 24 of 36 (66.7%), 399 yards (11.1 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, while deflecting 6 passes and committing 2 penalties. Getting Talib and a 7th round pick for a 4th round pick is yet another one of Bill Belichick’s smart bye low deals. The difference between a 4th round pick and a 7th round pick is barely anything, especially for a team like the Patriots who frequently find contributors in the 6th and 7th round.

Grade: A

Trade for Buccaneers: Greg Schiano has made it a point to makeover the team and the locker room culture since being hired before this season. Getting rid of Talib is yet another part of that and so far, it’s worked. This was a talented team that won 10 games in 2010 and they started 4-2 last year before Raheem Morris lost control of the team. Schiano seems to have gotten it back and the Buccaneers are playing well, sitting at 3-4 with a +32 points differential. They probably won’t make the playoffs this season, which is why they could get rid of Talib, who probably would not be back after the season, so this move makes sense. It also gives them a chance to see if young cornerbacks Leonard Johnson and EJ Biggers can be long term starters. I like this move for both sides, but I think the Patriots got the better end.

Grade: A

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Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Browns, Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (5-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-6)

Road favorites are 42-15 ATS off a bye. That makes sense. Road favorites tend to be very good teams and very good teams tend to be extra focused with a week off. The Browns kind of got screwed over by the schedulers because they have two straight games at home as dogs against a team coming off a bye. Last week, they hosted the Chargers and were 3 point home dogs. However, the Chargers didn’t deserve to be road favorites, especially against the underrated Browns, who are now 4-3-1 ATS on the year. As a result, the Browns were able to pull off a “surprising” upset.

This week, however, they face a Ravens team that does deserve to be road favorites and divisional road favorites off a bye are 20-3 ATS since 2002. They certainly didn’t look like it before the bye in a 43-13 loss to the Texans. Because that loss came immediately after the game in which they lost Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb for the season, a lot of people assume that they’re going to play like that going forward. However, the defense is not at fault. Yes, they allowed 420 total yards, but before they lost Lewis and Webb, they were already allowing 396.7 yards per game and they were 5-1.

The reason they were 5-1 despite poor defensive play was their offense, which was averaging 385 yards per play going into that Houston game. Against Houston, they managed just 176 yards of offense. Joe Flacco did what Joe Flacco does on occasion and had a terrible game. He went 21 of 43 for 147 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.

However, as inconsistent as Flacco is, he always bounces back. He has won his last 14 straight games off a loss. He’s 5-1 ATS off a loss of 10+. He’s also 3-1 ATS off a game in which he threw more than 20 incompletions. He should have a bounce back game against a much easier Cleveland defense, especially off a bye. He’s 4-0 ATS off a bye.  The defense won’t play well, but they weren’t playing well before the injuries either and they still went 5-1.

Contrary to popular belief, they have yet to miss Lardarius Webb or Ray Lewis. Besides, as much as the Ravens struggle outside the division as road favorites, they’re 5-2 ATS in the division in the Joe Flacco era. On top of that, teams are 30-16 ATS before being 10+ point favorites since 2011. Teams tend to be extra focused in this spot. The Ravens host Oakland next week. Meanwhile, the Browns are in a bad spot as home dogs off of a close home upset (1-3 points). Teams are 21-34 ATS in this spot since 2002.

We are getting some line value with the Browns as the yards per play method says this line should be -2.5 in favor of Baltimore and the rate of sustaining drives method says this should be a pick em. However, that Houston game where they lost the yards per play battle 5.5 to 3.0 and the first down battle 27 to 12 skewed both of those statistics. They should be able to bounce back and the trends are in their favor.

Besides, in the AFC North, the Browns and Bengals have always had trouble against the Ravens and Steelers. The Bengals and the Browns are a combined 22-63 against the Ravens and Steelers since 2002, when the divisions were realigned. Specifically, the Browns are 5-16 against the Ravens. They’ve dropped their last 9 against them and they are 3-6 ATS in those 9 games. I don’t think they’re good enough to beat the Ravens yet.

This would be a bigger play on the Ravens, but there are two things stopping me. The first is just that I’d be more comfortable with the Ravens if the line was -3 or lower. I’m confident the Ravens will win, but they’ve had some close calls this year (wins by 31, 1, 7, 3, and 2), so I’d be more confident if they had field goal protection.

The 2nd reason is that the public is heavily betting on Baltimore. I was hoping that wouldn’t be the case after their fluky blowout loss to the Texans, but it is. I hate betting on heavy public leans. It is good to see, however, that the line is climbing along with the heavy public lean, so there’s no danger of this being a trap line. The Ravens should be the right side though, so it’s a significant lean. That 20-3 ATS trend is hard to go against.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Sharps lean: BAL 15 CLE 6

Final update: Of my 6 big plays this week, 5 of them lined up with heavy sharps leans. I feel really good about this week. However, I’m staying put at just 3 here. I really wish we had field goal protection with the Ravens though.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against spread: Baltimore -3.5 (-110) 3 units

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 3 (+2)

Record: 7-0

I’m moving the Falcons into the #1 spot for the first time all season, but I’m still not sold. 4 of their 7 wins have come by a touchdown or less. They’ve been very reliant on winning the turnover margin, which is inconsistent on a week to week basis. They rank just 19th in yards per play differential and 4th in rate of sustaining drives differential. And they haven’t really played anyone of note, except Denver, and that was not the same Broncos team they are now. The Falcons could easily lose at home to the Cowboys this week.

Studs

QB Matt Ryan: 22 of 29 for 262 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 throw aways, 102.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 7 of 34 drop backs (1 sack, 3 scrambles, 1 of 3, 1 throw away)

RB Jacquizz Rodgers: Rushed for 60 yards (53 after contact) on 8 carries, 1 broken tackle, caught 5 passes for 20 yards on 5 attempts

LG Justin Blalock: Did not allow a pressure on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards on 3 attempts

WR Julio Jones: Caught 5 passes for 123 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 15.8 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

ROLB Stephen Nicholas: 5 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes, 1 penalty, allowed 2 catches for 18 yards and a deflection on 5 attempts

SS William Moore: Allowed 1 catch for 0 yards on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hit on 5 blitzes

Duds

RB Michael Turner: Rushed for 58 yards (47 after contact) on 24 carries, 2 broken tackles, 1 fumble, caught 1 pass for 6 yards on 2 attempts

RG Peter Konz: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 5 attempts

CB Asante Samuel: 4 missed tackles, allowed 3 catches for 45 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection

DT Jonathan Babineaux: Did not record a pressure on 44 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

DT Peria Jerry: Did not record a pressure on 22 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Chicago Bears: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Bears

Last week: 1 (-2)

Record: 6-1

I’m moving the Bears out of the #1 spot barely this week because I wasn’t impressed with their near home loss to the Panthers and because the Falcons looked good against the Eagles. However, the Falcons still haven’t really played anyone that’s any good and they almost lost at home to the Raiders. The Bears’ one loss was on Thursday Night and it’s tough to put a lot of stock into a fluky bad performance on short rest. Excluding that loss, Jay Cutler has won 11 straight games.

Studs

QB Jay Cutler: 19 of 28 for 186 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, 4 dropped passes, 102.2 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 13 of 35 drop backs (6 sacks, 1 scramble, 4 of 6)

DT Henry Melton: 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 35 pass rush snaps, 6 solo tackles, 5 stops

DT Nate Collins: 2 quarterback hurries on 19 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

CB Charles Tillman: Allowed 1 catch for 8 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

Duds

LT J’Marcus Webb: Allowed 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

RT Gabe Carimi: Allowed 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

C Roberto Garza: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 37 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 9 yards on 5 attempts

WR Devin Hester: Caught 1 pass for 5 yards on 2 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

DT Stephen Paea: 1 quarterback hurry on 23 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Nick Roach: 1 solo tackle, allowed 1 catch for 10 yards on 2 attempts

MLB Brian Urlacher: Allowed 2 catches for 69 yards on 3 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 batted pass

ROLB Lance Briggs: 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles, allowed 4 catches for 43 yards on 5 attempts

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New England Patriots: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Patriots

Last week: 4 (+0)

Record: 5-3

The team with the best points differential in the league: The New England Patriots. Look out. They have a very easy schedule the rest of the way, host the Bills and Colts, going to the Jets and the Dolphins, hosing the Texans and the 49ers, going to Jacksonville, and hosting the Dolphins. As bad as they have been at nailing down leads in the 4th quarter (8-9 in their last 17 when leading by 10 or fewer going into the 4th quarter), they also have more double digit leads than anyone in the league heading into the 4th and they’ve never blown one of those. Meanwhile, their record in games where they trail by 10 or fewer going into the 4th is also around .500, meaning they’re about .500 in games that are close heading into the 4th quarter. That sounds about right.

Studs

QB Tom Brady: 23 of 35 for 304 yards and 4 touchdowns, 1 throw aways, 3 drops, 108.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 7 of 35 drop backs (3 of 7, 1 throw away)

C Ryan Wendell: Did not allow a pressure on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 29 yards on 6 attempts

LG Donald Thomas: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for -3 yards on 1 attempt

TE Rob Gronkowski: Caught 8 passes for 146 yards and 2 touchdowns on 13 attempts on 24 pass snaps, 1 drop

RB Stevan Ridley: Rushed for 127 yards (60 after contact) and a touchdown on 15 attempts

LOLB Jerod Mayo: Allowed 3 catches for 12 yards on 3 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes

CB Alfonzo Dennard: Allowed 1 catch for 16 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception, 5 solo tackles

RE Chandler Jones: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops

Duds

WR Deion Branch: Did not catch a pass on 1 attempt on 35 pass snaps

DT Vince Wilfork: Did not record a pressure on 20 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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New York Giants: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Giants

Last week: 5 (+0)

Record: 6-2

The Giants are now 53-19 in the first half of the season under Tom Coughlin, though they are also just 27-37 in the 2nd half of the season. Looking at their schedule, we could see something similar happen. This week, they host the Steelers, then they go to Cincinnati, host the Packers, go to Washington, host the Saints, go to Atlanta, go to Baltimore, and host the Eagles. They have a commanding lead on the NFC East, for now, but it’s not over. The Cowboys have been better than their record suggests and the Eagles are always the opposite of the Giants in the 2nd half of the season.

Studs

LT William Beatty: Did not allow a pressure on 32 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 17 yards on 3 attempts

FS Stevie Brown: Allowed 3 catches for 43 yards on 5 attempts, 2 interceptions, 7 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

DT Chris Canty: 1 sack and 4 quarterback hits on 32 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

MLB Chase Blackburn: 5 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hit on 5 blitzes, allowed 1 catch for 4 yards on 2 attempts

K Lawrence Tynes: 8 kickoffs, 2 touchbacks, 69.5 yards per kickoff, 20.6 average opponent’s starting position, 5/5 FG (26, 37, 37, 41, 43)

P Steve Weatherford: 6 kickoffs for 287 yards, 2 inside 20, 2 returns for 8 yards, 46.5 net yards per punt

Duds

C David Baas: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 65 yards on 12 attempts

WR Victor Cruz: Caught 2 passes for 23 yards on 8 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 1 interception

SS Antrel Rolle: Allowed 4 catches for 69 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 2 solo tackles

LE Justin Tuck: 2 quarterback hurries on 52 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, no tackles

CB Jayron Hosley: Allowed 3 catches for 50 yards on 4 attempts, 3 penalties, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist

LOLB Michael Boley: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 7 catches for 66 yards on 11 attempts

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Denver Broncos: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Broncos

Last week: 9 (+3)

Record: 4-3

The Broncos rank 2nd in the league in yards per play differential at 1.4, just .1 behind San Francisco, who has looked untouchable for weeks in that category. No one else is above 0.7. They rank just 9th in rate of sustaining drives differential, thanks to a 3rd down defense that 20th. However, they were much better in this area against the Saints in a complete, shut down victory. New Orleans went just 1 of 12 on 3rd down.

The Broncos rank 6th in the league against both the pass and the run on a per play basis and Peyton Manning is playing like vintage Peyton Manning right now, if not better, as he’s completed 107 of 142 for 1289 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 1 interception in his last 4 games. On the season, he’s completing 68.5% of his passes for an average of 8.2 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, all ahead of career averages. And they’re doing this all against the league’s toughest schedule so far, in terms of opponent’s winning percentage. The rest of the way, they have the easiest schedule. It’s weird to think that just 6 quarters, they looked on the verge of 2-4 and done.

Studs

QB Peyton Manning: 22 of 30 for 305 yards and 3 touchdowns, 1 hit as thrown, 1 drop, 113.8 adjusted QB rating

RB Willis McGahee: Rushed for 122 yards (61 after contact) and a touchdown on 23 attempts, 3 broken tackles, 1 fumble, caught 2 passes for 33 yards on 2 attempts

LT Ryan Clady: Did not allow a pressure on 33 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 14 yards on 5 attempts

RT Orlando Franklin: Did not allow a pressure on 33 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 37 yards on 6 attempts

RG Chris Kuper: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 31 yards on 4 attempts

WR Demaryius Thomas: Caught 7 passes for 137 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch

ROLB Von Miller: 2 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback hurries on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

LOLB Wesley Woodyard: 8 solo tackles, 4 assist, 6 stops, 1 stop, allowed 3 catches for 13 yards on 6 attempts, 1 interception, 1 sack on 11 blitzes

CB Champ Bailey: Allowed 3 catches for 31 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 1 stop

CB Chris Harris: Allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 4 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

CB Tony Carter: Allowed 3 catches for 29 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

K Matt Prater: 6 kickoffs, 6 touch backs, 75.0 yards per kickoff, 20.0 opponent’s average starting distance, 2/2 FG (33, 33)

Duds

RE Elvis Dumervil: 1 quarterback hurry on 41 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle

MLB Danny Trevathan: Allowed 4 catches for 76 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

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San Francisco 49ers: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, 49ers

Last week: 6 (-1)

Record: 6-2

Alex Smith was 18 of 19 on Monday Night against the Cardinals, one completion shy of setting the all-time record for completion percentage in a single game. He did set the single game for most pass attempts with only 1 incompletion and that incompletion was actually a drop. The knock on him, however, is that he settled for mostly short stuff, completing just 10 passes longer than 3 yards through the air and actually averaging just 4.9 yards per completion through the air, getting a lot of his yardage after the catch against an Arizona defense that couldn’t tackle. He also looked 4 sacks on his 6 pressured snaps, sacks that even he admits he should have thrown away and taken the incompletion. This kind of stuff might fly against Arizona, but I still don’t trust him to lead them deep into the playoffs.

Studs

QB Alex Smith: 18 of 19 for 232 yards and 3 touchdowns, 1 drop, 130.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 6 of 23 drop backs (4 sacks, 2 of 2)

LT Joe Staley: Did not allow a pressure on 24 pass block snaps, run blocked for 19 yards on 3 attempts

RT Anthony Davis: Did not allow a pressure on 24 pass block snaps, run blocked for 31 yards on 6 attempts

WR Michael Crabtree: Caught 5 passes for 72 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5 attempts on 15 pass snaps, 12.4 YAC per catch

CB Tarell Brown: Allowed 2 catches for 22 yards on 10 attempts, 5 pass deflections, 1 solo tackle

CB Chris Culliver: Allowed 3 catches for 21 yards on 9 attempts, 2 pass deflection, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles

MLB Patrick Willis: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 10 blitzes, allowed 2 catches for 4 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection

ROLB Aldon Smith: 2 sacks and 5 quarterback hurries on 42 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 4 solo tackles, 5 stops

FS Dashon Goldson: Allowed 4 catches for 28 yards on 6 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

P Andy Lee: 5 punts for 244 yards, 2 inside 20, 4 returns for 15 yards, 45.8 net yards per punt

Duds

MLB NaVorro Bowman: 1 missed tackle, 1 stop, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 10 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 41 yards on 3 attempts

LE Ray McDonald: 1 quarterback hurry on 46 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

RE Justin Smith: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 47 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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