Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals: Week 4 NFL Pick

Miami Dolphins (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (3-0)

The Cardinals are 3-0 right now, but they’re incredibly overrated. Do you really trust anyone on this offense other than Larry Fitzgerald? The defense is great, but I don’t think they’re well rounded enough to make the playoffs in a loaded NFC. They have a negative yards per play differential and rank tied for 30th in offensive yards per plays. 3-0 is impressive, especially considering who they’ll played, but the Bills started 3-0 last year. Almost every year, there’s a team that gets off to a good start and then fades away and misses the playoffs and makes their believers look dumb (“This Ryan Fitzpatrick is the real deal.” “Rex Grossman is a legitimate franchise quarterback.”).

Winning 3 in a row at any point in a season isn’t that impressive, but when teams do it to start the season, it’s much more noticeable and you get idiots like Michael Silver putting them first in his Power Rankings (Really? Kevin Kolb is going to win the Super Bowl?). This is essentially the same team that finished last year 8-8 and I expect them to finish somewhere around there this year. Bettors should ride the correction for the rest of the season.

Bettors should also take advantage of a dynamic change with the Cardinals going from dogs in 3 straight (and pulling 3 straight upsets) to being favorites. It’s one thing to win when nobody believes in you. It’s another to win when you buy into your own hype (see the 49ers last week). As a result of this, home favorites are 3-12 ATS since 2008 after a win as a home dog (15-23 ATS since 2002, 38-51 ATS since 1989). The Cardinals could easily be overconfident in this one after 3 not as impressive as they seem wins against the “lowly” Dolphins, especially just a few days before a Thursday Night divisional matchup with the Rams.

Now onto the “lowly” Dolphins. They’re not as lowly as they seem. In fact, both they and the Cardinals have the same yards per play differential, which suggests this line should be -3, instead of -6. The Dolphins’ offense is completely inept, but their defense is not bad at all. They were the league’s 6th ranked scoring defense last year and this year they’ve picked up right where they left off. This should be a low scoring game and the Cardinals don’t have the type of offense to be 6 point favorites against a good defense. The Dolphins are also in a good situation. Teams that nearly pull off upsets as a home dog (loss by 3 or fewer) are 58-40 ATS in their next game since 2002.

Injuries will play a factor in this game as both Reggie Bush and Darnell Dockett are key players who are questionable for the Dolphins and Cardinals respectively. Dockett’s injury is bigger because he’s a key player on defense for them, such a key unit given their offense’s mediocrity. Bush is also more likely to play because he practiced today, while Dockett did not. Besides, in his absence last week, Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas didn’t look too bad.

I don’t love any one single play this week, but this is one of my favorite and a co-pick of the week. Arizona is overrated and struggles on offense. Against a tough and underrated defense, there’s no way they should be laying more than a field goal. If they win, it’ll be a game similar to their first 2 (by 3 and by 2), rather than last week, when Philadelphia imploded on themselves. Arizona won last week largely because they were +3 in the turnover margin. However, turnovers are very unpredictable on a week to week basis. Teams that win the turnover differential battle by 3 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

They’re also in a prime letdown situation as home favorites after 3 straight upset wins. San Francisco is better coached, more proven, and more legitimately talented than the Cardinals are and even they bought into their own hype last week. Expect a similar result from Arizona this week against a similarly underrated team, especially with a divisional clash coming up in just 4 days.

The other thing I like in this game is that the public is pounding Arizona and predictably so. The general perception is that Arizona is a legitimate 3-0 team, while Miami is terrible, so Arizona should easily beat them by a touchdown. If this year is any indication, the general perception is normally wrong. That’s why the odds makers are rich. On games with more than 80% of the action on one side, the public is just 4-12 this year.

This game fits that description and yet the line is still dropping, indicative of a trap line. It also curiously didn’t move from last week to this week, despite Arizona’s huge win, as it was -6 last week and opened this week at -6.5 (it’s now dropped to -6 or -5.5). The odds makers want as much money as possible coming in on Arizona, probably because they know something the general public doesn’t understand, which is that these teams aren’t that unevenly matched, as their yards per play differential would indicate. Smart bettors won’t fall for their trap and will ride the correction against Arizona.

Public lean: Arizona (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): MIA 16 ARZ 5

Update: My 3 co-picks of the week all coincide with the 3 strongest sharps leans of the week. Feeling good.

Miami Dolphins 17 Arizona Cardinals 16 Upset Pick +210

Pick against spread: Miami +6 (-105) 4 units

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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens: Week 4 NFL Pick

Cleveland Browns (0-3) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)

Yards per play differential is my favorite single stat and right now, the Baltimore Ravens lead the league in it. However, as with any stat, you have to add a human element to it sometimes to interpret it. Baltimore’s defense, uncharacteristically, has been pretty middle of the pack this year, but an offense that ranks 1st in yards per play is behind their high overall ranking. The defensive relative struggles are explainable. The team is missing top pass rusher Terrell Suggs, among others, and ranks just 24th in the league in pass rush efficiency. This has lead to a pass defense that ranks 27th in the league in YPA.

Their suddenly explosive offense is also explainable if you believe that Joe Flacco has taken that next step as a quarterback in his 5th year in the league, thanks, in part, to Torrey Smith breaking out as the legitimate #1 receiver he’s never really had. Flacco has looked very good overall this season, completing 64.5% of his passes for an average of 8.3 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. If he keeps that up all year, those will not only be career highs across the board, but he’ll put himself in the MVP discussion.

However, it’s worth noting that he has played very well in two games against poor pass defenses, Cincinnati ranks 28th and New England ranks 21st, despite facing Kevin Kolb and Jake Locker in two of their games, but he also struggled against the only good pass defense he’s faced so far, going 22 of 42 for 232 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception against the Eagles and their 1st ranked pass defense. Just 3 games into the season, I’d say the jury is still out on Flacco as an elite quarterback.

Fortunately for him, he gets another easy test this week. Cleveland actually ranks 16th in the league against the pass, but if you exclude the game that Joe Haden played, they’re allowing 8.0 YPA, which would be 22nd in the league and that’s against Andy Dalton and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Haden is out for this one, so the Browns don’t have much chance of stopping the Ravens’ offense. Aside from Haden, their secondary is a mess. They’ve already benched two starters back there and neither of their replacements have played much better.

Meanwhile, Jabaal Sheard, their best and only pass rusher from last season, is having a major sophomore slump, with just 6 total pressures and no sacks on 112 pass rush snaps through 3 games. The Browns also have some trouble against the run, ranking 18th in YPC allowed, clearly missing injured nose tackle Phil Taylor. This was the league’s 5th ranked scoring defense last year, but missing key members with other key members struggling, they’re nowhere near that good this year.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Browns are also pretty bad. The Ravens, as I mentioned, do struggle against the pass, but Brandon Weeden is the worst quarterback they’ve faced so far (Andy Dalton, Michael Vick, Tom Brady). Weeden might not be terrible, but he has no help from his supporting cast. They are incredibly young offensively. Besides Joe Thomas, only the washed up Ben Watson is playing significant snaps and was drafted before 2009 and Watson might be losing his job to 2nd year tight end Jordan Cameron. They have 5 rookies playing major roles and 2 players in their 2nd year, 3 if you include Cameron.

Given their youth, they’re at a major disadvantage travelling on 3 days rest. The Ravens’ offense also might not perform up to their normal level on a short week, as short week’s tend to favor defenses (the under is 67-50 on Thursday Night Football since 1989), but the Ravens have an advantage being a proven, veteran, well coached team at home. Home favorites are 45-24 ATS on Thursday since 1989, including 10-3 ATS when the line is 10+. The Browns’ best offensive player is Trent Richardson, but he won’t be able to do much in this game because Baltimore is one again a top-5 run defense.

This game seems pretty cut and dry. The Ravens are one of the best teams in the league and the Browns are one of the worst. As big as this spread is, we’re actually get some line value with the home team. Baltimore’s point per play differential is 1.7 yards better than Cleveland’s and an old handicapping formula says to divide to that by .15 and add 3 either way for home field advantage to determine the “real line.” If you do that, Baltimore would be 14.5 point favorites and that’s not even taking into account how much worse the Browns are without Haden. That obviously works a little bit better a few more weeks into the season, but it’s worth noting.

The experienced, proven Ravens also have a major advantage as huge home favorites on Thursday Night. They’ll be much better prepared for this game than the young Browns, who have to travel. Two factors keep this from being a big play. One is just the size of the line. I hate making big plays on 10+ point favorites. The other is that Baltimore could conceivably be flat off of a huge win last week. Favorites coming off close win as dogs or favorites of 3 or less are 63-95 ATS since 2002, though that trend is less prevalent over the past few years (26-35 ATS since 2008). I still expect this to be a blowout and Baltimore is my survivor pick of the week. I’m also putting a unit on the under (44) because of the trend in mentioned earlier with over/unders on Thursday Night.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Baltimore Ravens 27 Cleveland Browns 6 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO)

Pick against spread: Baltimore -12 (-105) 2 units

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Week 3 NFL Picks Results

Week 3 Results

ATS: 6-9-1 -2 units/-$395

SU: 5-11

Upset Picks: 2-4 -380

Over/Under: 1-0 +100

Total: -$675

Public Results ATS*: 6-9 -13 units

2012 results to date

ATS: 22-23-3 -7 units/-$1205

SU: 25-23

Upset Picks: 9-11 +$75

Over/Under: 1-0 +100

Total: -$1030

Survivor: 1-2 (HOU, NE, NO)

Public Results ATS*: 20-27-1 -26 units

*I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public win, if not, it’s a public loss. If a team that has 50-59% of the action on it covers, the public gets “one unit,” if they don’t cover, they lose one unit, 60-69% is 2, 70-79% is 3, etc.

Houston Texans: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

Last week: 2 (+1)

Record: 3-0

I’ve poked holes in pretty much every other team in the league. I can’t do that with this team. They are without a flaw. Winning in Denver in the high altitude against a talented team and a no huddle offense is damn impressive and 3 games into the season, this is the Super Bowl favorite and the most complete team in the league. Actually, I kind of lied. You can poke two holes in this team. Can they stay healthy? And can Matt Schaub win it all on his first career trip to the postseason? That’s still better than everyone else, however, though there’s a lot left to be determined.

Studs

QB Matt Schaub: 17 of 30 for 290 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception, 2 throw aways, 2 hit as throwns, 1 batted pass, 2 drops, 102.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 17 of 31 drop backs (1 sack, 9 of 16, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, 1 throw away, 2 hit as throwns)

C Chris Myers: Did not allow a pressure on 33 pass block snaps, run blocked for 56 yards on 15 attempts

LT Duane Brown: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 33 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 18 yards on 3 attempts

CB Johnathan Joseph: Allowed 3 catches for 30 yards on 9 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

FS Glover Quin: Allowed 1 catch for 6 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes

LOLB Brooks Reed: 1 sack and 5 quarterback hits on 41 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

LE JJ Watt: 3 sacks and 3 quarterback hits on 46 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 7 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

RT Derek Newton: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 25 pass block snaps, 3 penalties, run blocked for 10 yards on 3 attempts

RG Antoine Caldwell: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 18 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

CB Kareem Jackson: Allowed 7 catches for 107 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist

CB Brice McCain: 5 catches for 84 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 penalties, 2 solo tackles

ROLB Connor Barwin: Did not record a pressure on 51 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#2)

Last week: 5 (+3)

Record: 3-0

As many good teams as there are in the NFC, there isn’t a clear favorite. Maybe I just like poking holes in teams. Atlanta, however, is the best the NFC has right now and the favorite to represent them in the Super Bowl. The hole you can poke in them is that they rank just 10th in yards per play differential and they’re dominating the turnover battle with a whopping +10. However, they can’t continue to count on that going forward. Eventually, they’ll have to beat a team when they don’t dominate or win the turnover battle. They haven’t done that yet, though they’ve looked awfully good.

Atlanta Falcons

Studs

C Todd McClure: Didn’t allow a pressure on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 56 yards on 12 attempts

RT Tyson Clabo: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 5 attempts

TE Tony Gonzalez: Caught 9 passes for 91 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts on 45 pass snaps, 2.1 YAC per catch 1 interception when thrown to

CB Asante Samuel: Allowed 4 catches for 31 yards on 7 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

FS Thomas DeCoud: Did not allow a completion on 4 attempts, 2 interceptions, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

LG Justin Blalock: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 1 attempt

LE Ray Edwards: Did not record a pressure on 20 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

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Baltimore Ravens: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

Last week: 13 (+10)

Record: 2-1

The Ravens rank 1st in the league in yards per play differential, though you need to add a human element to stats sometimes. Their defense is not what it normally is and they’re clearly missing Terrell Suggs and others. The reason they rank so highly is because their offense leads the league in yards per play. If the defense continues like this, they’ll need to offense to continue that and I don’t know if they can. Whether or not they can has a lot to do with whether or not Joe Flacco has taken that next step. He’s torched two bad defenses and struggled against a good one, so the jury is still out on that one.

Baltimore Ravens

Studs

QB Joe Flacco: 28 of 39 for 382 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception, 1 throw away, 1 drop, 101.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 11 of 40 drop backs (no sacks, 1 scramble, 7 of 10, 1 touchdown, 1 throw away, 1 drop)

RB Ray Rice: Rushed for 101 yards (28 after contact) and a touchdown on 20 carries, caught 5 passes for 49 yards on 5 attempts

C Matt Birk: Did not allow a pressure on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 64 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts

RT Kelechi Osemele: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 19 yards on 3 attempts

WR Torrey Smith: Caught 6 passes for 127 yards and a 2 touchdown on 9 attempts on 46 pass snaps, 1 penalty, 4.0 YAC per catch

RE Haloti Ngata: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hits on 44 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 7 solo tackles and 6 stops

Duds

LT Michael Oher: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

CB Cary Williams: Allowed 8 catches for 98 yards on 12 attempts, 1 penalty, 10 solo tackles

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Philadelphia Eagles: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

Last week: 4 (+0)

Record: 2-1

The Eagles have gotten killed with turnovers in their first 3 games, with a league worst -6 turnover ratio. However, that tends to even out on a week to week basis. This is still one of the most talented teams in the league and they rank 4th in the league in yards per play differential. I expect them to eventually get their act together and finish as one of the best teams in the league, though I think Michael Vick is going to be a limiting factor come playoff time. This week, they have a big game against the Giants, one I expect them to win.

Studs

LG Evan Mathis: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 28 yards on 3 attempts

RG Danny Watkins: Did not allow a pressure on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 14 yards on 3 attempts

CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie: Allowed 1 catch for 6 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops

LE Jason Babin: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 21 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 4 stops

RE Trent Cole: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 assist

LE Brandon Graham: 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry, 3 solo tackles and 4 stops

RE Darryl Tapp: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 9 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

LT Demetress Bell: Allowed 7 quarterback hurries on 46 pass block snaps, 2 penalties

CB Brandon Boykin: Allowed 5 catches for 63 yards on 6 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

DT Derek Landri: Did not record a pressure on 17 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

DT Fletcher Cox: 1 quarterback hurry on 16 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

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New England Patriots: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

Last week: 3 (-2)

Record: 1-2

The Patriots are under .500 for the first time since week 1 of 2003, but they’ll be fine. Over the past couple of years, they’ve started a little sluggish and then hit their stride. This week, they go to Buffalo to face an old punching bag and hope to avoid their first 3 game losing streak since 2002. They’re still the most consistent team in the league over the last decade. Tom Brady looks great as usual and their division is pretty easy, as is their schedule. Baltimore is the only tough road opponent they had. They’ll make the playoffs with ease, win a punch of games, and maybe even get a first round bye. However, no Super Bowl loser has won the Super Bowl since 1972 and unless the Patriots can fix things on defense, that streak will extend another year.

Studs

QB Tom Brady: 28 of 41 for 335 yards and a touchdown, 1 throw away, 5 drops, 104.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 10 of 45 drop backs (2 sacks, 1 scramble, 4 of 7, 1 throw away)

LT Nate Solder: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 49 pass block snaps, run blocked for -1 yards on 2 attempts

WR Wes Welker: Caught 8 passes for 142 yards on 10 attempts on 45 pass snaps, 8.1 YAC per catch, 1 drop

Duds

TE Rob Gronkowski: 1 penalty, allowed 1 quarterback hit on 8 pass block snaps, 2 catches for 21 yards on 3 attempts on 41 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch

MLB Brandon Spikes: 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 penalty, allowed 2 catches for 68 yards on 2 attempts

CB Kyle Arrington: Allowed 5 catches for 70 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 1 penalty, 7 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

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Chicago Bears: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

Last week: 8 (+2)

Record: 2-1

The defense is playing great as usual, but the offense needs to come along. The offensive line is a major issue, but Jay Cutler needs to be able to succeed in spite of it if he’s going to be considered an elite quarterback. The Giants won the Super Bowl last year despite a league worst pass block efficiency rating. Matt Forte is coming back from injury soon and they have an improved receiving corps. They won 11 games in 2010 and were 7-3 last year before injury struck. Expect them to have another strong season.

Studs

LG Chilo Rachal: Did not allow a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 25 yards on 3 attempts

C Roberto Garza: Did not allow a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for -6 yards on 3 attempts

CB Tim Jennings: Allowed 1 catch for 8 yards on 9 attempts, 1 interception, 2 pass deflections, 2 solo tackles

LOLB Lance Briggs: 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes, allowed 4 catches for 32 yards on 6 attempts, 2 pass deflections

LE Israel Idonije: 3 sacks and 1 quarterback hit on 32 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 3 stops

DT Stephen Paea: 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 29 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 2 stops

RE Julius Peppers: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 5 quarterback hurries on 28 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

K Robbie Gould: 6 kickoffs, 5 touchbacks, 73.3 yards per kickoff, 19.7 opponent average starting distance, 3/3 FG (22, 37, 54)

Duds

QB Jay Cutler: 17 of 31 for 183 yards and 1 interception, 1 throw away, 1 batted pass, 59.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 11 of 34 drop backs (2 sacks, 1 scramble, 4 of 8, 1 hit as thrown)

RT Gabe Carimi: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts

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San Diego Chargers: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

Last week: 7 (+0)

Record: 2-1

So maybe these are the same old early season Chargers. They beat up on bad teams like last year, but got destroyed against a very good Falcons team. The good news is they should get better as the season goes on, as well, and they’re getting healthier. Antonio Gates and Ryan Mathews were back last week and Jared Gaither could be back this week. He’d be a huge boost to an offensive line that ranks 30th in the league in pass block efficiency, thanks, in large part, to an undrafted rookie left tackle. They still lead the AFC West thanks to a Denver loss and I think they’ll finish right above the Broncos and win the division.

Studs

MLB Donald Butler: 8 solo tackles, 2 assists, 6 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 2 catches for 14 yards on 4 attempts

Duds

QB Philip Rivers: 21 of 38 for 173 yards and 2 interceptions, 3 drops, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 59.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 20 of 40 drop backs (1 sack, 1 scramble, 7 of 18, 2 interceptions, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 2 drops)

LT Michael Harris: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 1 attempt

LG Tyronne Green: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

TE Antonio Gates: 3 catches for 22 yards on 7 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 1.7 YAC per catch, 2 interceptions, 1 drop

RE Corey Liuget: Did not record a pressure on 30 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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