Year: 2012

Lions expect Bill Bentley and Chris Houston back, not Louis Delmas

stevenlourie Lions, News

The Lions’ defense has been pretty awful through 2 games, particularly through the air, ranking 22nd in YPA, allowing 37 of 56 for 374 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions. That might not sound awful, but neither of the quarterbacks they’ve faced, Alex Smith or Sam Bradford, are really that great. That’s also in spite of one of the best pass rushes in the league.

The Lions are expected to be healthier in the secondary this week, returning Chris Houston and Bill Bentley from injury. However, they’re still not at 100% and it’s not like they were a good pass defense before injuries. They were 23rd in scoring defense last year. Houston is decent, but Bentley is a 3rd round rookie. Those 2 will work with Jacob Lacey, a mediocre talent, at cornerback, while their safeties will be Erik Coleman and either Amari Spievey or John Wendling. Wendling started last week, but got destroyed by Vernon Davis and was benched for Spievey who was terrible last year. It’s unclear who will start this week, but it probably doesn’t matter. Louis Delmas, who is still injured, is really missed there.

A poor passing defense still not at full strength, they be a welcome sight for Jake Locker this week. Locker has struggled in 2 games against San Diego and New England, but this is a much easier test. On top of that, the Lions struggle to stop the run and Chris Johnson, as many duds as he’s had in the last year plus, has rushed for 100+ yards 4 times in 5 games against teams ranked in the bottom 3rd against the run, which the Lions did last year.

Locker, now more comfortable in his 3rd start, will also get top receiver Kenny Britt back in a full time role. Remember, Britt, not yet 24 years old, has caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns in his full last 13 games. The Lions have the talent edge, but they could be flat off an emotional loss to the 49ers against a “lowly” 0-2 team, and they’re on the road. The Lions, just 6-8 in their last 14 games, should be on upset alert.

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Chargers expect to have Ryan Mathews and Antonio Gates back this week, not Jared Gaither

stevenlourie Chargers, News

Normally slow starters, the Chargers are 2-0 this season and doing it in a year when a lot of people wrote them off after 2 straight seasons without the postseason and with the team possessing many holes on paper. Philip Rivers might be the MVP of the league for the first 2 games, leading this team to a 2-0 record despite not having much help. He’s completed 73.8% of his passes for an average of 7.9 YPA and 4 touchdowns to 1 interception.

He’s playing behind the league’s worst offensive line in terms of pass block efficiency and he’s doing it while throwing to Malcom Floyd, Robert Meachem (just kidding, no one ever throws to Robert Meachem), and one game of Antonio Gates. His running game isn’t helping him much either as none of their backs have really gotten much going in Ryan Mathews’ absence. They are averaging just 3.1 YPC.

The good news for Rivers is that Mathews will be back this week. Mathews is injury prone, but he’s one of the most talented backs in the league and they were planning on using him as an everything back so he should definitely help their offense. Gates is also expected back. He should reprise his role as Rivers’ favorite target. The Chargers will need them both as they face their toughest test so far as the also 2-0 Atlanta Falcons come to town.

The bad news is that Jared Gaither, who was supposed to be their left tackle, is reportedly closer to being put on IR than to returning. Gaither hasn’t practiced in months with back spasms and given his history of back problems, that’s very concerning. When healthy, Gaither is an elite left tackle. With the Ravens, in 2009, he allowed just 4 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 6 quarterback hurries, while committing 10 penalties in 13 games and in 2008, he allowed just 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 22 quarterback hurries while committing 15 penalties in 19 games. Gaither was amazing in 5 starts last season for the Chargers, after being cut midseason by the Chiefs. He didn’t allow a sack or quarterback hit and only allowed 3 quarterback hurries, while committing just 3 penalties.

The Chargers rewarded him with a 4 year, 24.6 million dollar deal with 13.5 million guaranteed this offseason. That may seem like a lot to pay, but franchise left tackles do not grow on trees. There’s a reason they’re never available on the open market. Seeing one available is almost as rare as seeing a franchise quarterback on the open market. If Gaither were to stay healthy, that deal would have been a steal. However, now it’s looking like that could very well not happen. In his absence, undrafted rookie Mike Harris has looked like an undrafted rookie left tackle, surrendering 11 quarterback hurries, most in the league. He’s also been penalized twice and is overall rated as ProFootballFocus’ 66th rated offensive tackle out of 71. He’ll deal with John Abraham this week as he looks to get it going. The active leader in sacks has just 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry through 2 games.

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Jaguars to be without Cameron Bradfield, Eben Britton, and Daryl Smith again, Derek Cox to be limited

stevenlourie Jaguars, News

The Jaguars have been one of the worst teams in the league over the first 2 games of the season. Blaine Gabbert looked functional against a weak defense in Minnesota week 1, leading them to a near win. completing 23 of 39 for 260 yards, 2 touchdown, and no interceptions. Minnesota’s secondary is crap, but I was very impressed with Gabbert’s poise under pressure. I didn’t like the matchup for Gabbert because of his struggles under pressure last season. Minnesota has one of the league’s best pass rushes and they lived up to their billing, pressured Gabbert on 18 of 43 drop backs, but Gabbert only took 2 sacks and completed 9 of 15 on those 18 drop backs (3 runs).

Against Houston, however, Gabbert finished 7-19 for 53 yards, after leaving with an injury and in the middle of the 3rd quarter, he was averaging less than 1 yard per pass attempt. His pocket presence regressed as he was pressured on 8 of 23 drop backs, scrambling once, taking 3 sacks and going 1 for 4. He won’t face a defense as good as Houston’s every week, but he won’t face one as bad as Minnesota’s every week either. Overall, the Jaguars are 0-2 and rank 30th in yards per play differential.

Part of the problem has been injuries, but don’t expect them to be much healthier this week. The Jaguars will once again be without two starters on their offensive line, right tackle Cameron Bradfield and left guard Eben Britton, and defensively, top linebacker Daryl Smith is once again out. #1 cornerback Derek Cox is expected to play, but he will be limited and only see the field on passing downs. Injuries have turned this defense from respectable to horrible. Offensively, Blaine Gabbert cannot be trusted, especially behind a banged up offensive front and Maurice Jones-Drew, who had 47.7% of their offensive yards last year, most by a non-quarterback since OJ Simpson in 1974, is not the same as last year. Expect the Colts to win this week because at least they have one redeeming quality, the quarterback position.

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Raiders getting destroyed by injuries, could move Michael Huff to cornerback

stevenlourie News, Raiders

I called the Raiders overrated before the season and said they were one of the worst teams in the league and an ugly 35-13 loss to the Dolphins is making that look pretty good. The new regime has a lot of promise, but they inherited a mess, an 8 win team (with a Pythagorean Expectation of 6 wins for stat nerds) that was above the cap and didn’t have very many draft picks. Whether or not the future is bright remains to be seen, but the present is pretty bad.

On top of all that, they’ve been destroyed by injuries. Linebacker Aaron Curry is expected to miss the entire season, while top cornerback Ronald Bartell will miss at least 6 weeks after being put on non-season ending IR. Shawntae Spencer, another starting cornerback, will also miss this week, as could middle linebacker Rolando McClain. McClain’s potential absence hurts as he’s one of their best defensive players and plays in a unit already starting a 4th round rookie. Travis Goethel, an inexperienced 2010 5th round pick, would start in his absence if he couldn’t go. He’s been practiced in spite of a concussion, but it’s unclear if he’s been given the necessary medical clearance to play. If he can’t obtain that by Sunday, it won’t matter that he practiced this week.

Spencer, meanwhile, isn’t very good, but he was a starter at a very thin position to begin with. After failing to return everyone at the position who played a single snap for them in 2011, the Raiders have lost their top two cornerbacks with injury and will likely start Patrick Lee and Phillip Adams in this one. Yeah, good luck containing Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown this week, as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Raiders know they’re thin at cornerback, so they’re considering moving safety Michael Huff there, at least in certain situations, this week, but I don’t know if that will help. Huff hasn’t played cornerback since college, so he might not be any better and that would leave them short a starter at safety, one of the few positions where they actually have talent.

Offensively, they are expected to be without right tackle Khalif Barnes this week. Barnes isn’t great or anything, but replacement Willie Smith was horrendous last week after Barnes left the game. They’re already the 8th ranked offensive line in pass blocking efficiency and that will only get worse this week as they face a tough Pittsburgh pass rush. The Steelers tend to flat fall on the road, as they are -40 on the road since the beginning of last year, including playoffs, and +137 at home. They beat Indianapolis by just 3, Kansas City by just 4, and Cleveland by just 3 last year. However, they’re heading into a bye and good teams tend to be very focused and cover heading into a bye. Road favorites of 3+ and home favorites of 7+ are a combined 34-18 ATS heading into a bye since 2002, as long as their opponent isn’t also heading into a bye. I have a hard time seeing the Raiders avoiding on 0-3 hole this week.

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Bears rule Matt Forte out, make a change on the offensive line

stevenlourie Bears, News

The Bears had an embarrassing loss to the Packers on Thursday Night Football last week, losing 23-10 in a huge game to a division rival. Jay Cutler was under pressure all night, pressured on 21 of 35 drop backs, taking 7 sacks and tossing 4 picks. Cutler was caught on camera screaming at and bumping into left tackle J’Marcus Webb. He has since apologized for the bump and the bump only, which is right.

Anyone overreacting to Cutler’s blow up doesn’t understand the behind the scenes of NFL football. That type of thing happens all the time (no I’ve never played, yes you can still understand the behind the scenes without having played). It’s a passionate sport played by passionate players and any player worth his salt won’t take it personally. It’s only when it’s caught on camera that people overreact. And you can’t knock Cutler for apparently not giving a shit that he was hurt and couldn’t play in the NFC Championship game in 2010 and then knock him for being passionate and competitive on the sideline.

However, the on the field issues still remain coming out of that game. The Bears have had one of the worst offensive lines in the league over the last 3 years and firing Mike Martz, their former offensive coordinator, whose scheme highlighted their offensive line’s deficiencies with many 5 and 7 step drops, didn’t help. The Bears also lost Matt Forte with an injury in that game and he will miss at least a week, though they’re saying it’s not a high ankle sprain.

In an attempt to fix the problems they’re having up front, the Bears have made a change on the offensive line, though it doesn’t involve left tackle J’Marcus Webb. The Bears have benched left guard Chris Spencer and replaced him with Chilo Rachel. Spencer has surrendered 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback pressures in 2 games, while being penalized once, so he’s obviously part of the problem. Rachal should be an upgrade. Before an injury plagued 2011 season, Rachal was ProFootballFocus’ 9th rated guard in 2010 in San Francisco. Still just 26, the former 2nd round pick is back in shape and healthy again and should help on their offensive line. It’s tough to imagine him solving all of their problems though.

This week, the Bears take on the Rams. There’s some value with them at just -7.5. They were -10.5 last week and I think there’s been too much of an overreaction to that one game, especially since St. Louis is a publicly favored underdog right now. Jay Cutler takes a shit like that once or twice a year and it never really means anything. Plus, they were totally overmatched as underdogs on Thursday Night Football (teams in that situation are 24-46 ATS). Cutler should bounce back (though I can’t say the same for this offensive line) and Michael Bush was signed for this purpose so he should be able to carry the load in Forte’s absence. However, the Rams are still an underrated team who has played much better this year than last year. This is a tough call this week.

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Giants’ Andre Brown has earned a time share with Ahmad Bradshaw?

stevenlourie Giants, News

Andre Brown is having a nice week or so. On Sunday, Ahmad Bradshaw went down with an injury midgame against the Giants and because Tim Coughlin didn’t trust 1st round rookie David Wilson because of ball security and pass protection issues, he put the more veteran Andre Brown in the game. Brown impressed, rushing for 71 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries and he earned the start on Thursday Night Football with Bradshaw being ruled out on a short week.

Brown impressed even more last night, rushing for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns on 20 carries. Brown’s two starts have come against bad defenses, but there’s no way that you could have watched his two performances and not come away impressed, especially given his history. The powerful 227 pound back has been cut 7 times in his NFL career after being a 4th round pick in 2009 out of NC State by the Giants. He’s dealt with an Achilles tear and a ton of adversity, but now he’s burst onto the scene and it appears he might be here to stay. Bradshaw is expected back next week, but Brown could have earned a time share with him. He’s the power back compliment to Bradshaw that they were previously lacking with Brandon Jacobs going to San Francisco.

People who picked Andre Brown up for the week for a spot start should not cut him even when Bradshaw returns and if he’s still available in your league, go grab him. It’s entirely possible that Brown earns a weekly role, especially around the goal line, and Bradshaw’s injury history is noted. Bradshaw owners, meanwhile, should considering trying to trade Bradshaw now for a more consistent starter if you can get one, because a time share will make Bradshaw no longer worth a weekly start. David Wilson owners, meanwhile, should just cut him. Tom Coughlin doesn’t trust rookies and he’s well behind both Brown and Bradshaw now. He may still have some value in leagues that don’t redraft, but don’t expect much of any impact from him this season. Even with Bradshaw out, he saw just 3 touches against Carolina.

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Falcons’ Michael Turner arrested for DUI

stevenlourie Falcons, News

The Falcons are having a great start to the season, winning both of their games, but Michael Turner’s season isn’t going so well. The Falcons have been winning largely in spite of running back Michael Turner, who has carried the ball 28 times for 74 yards and a touchdown in 2 games. He’s never been good as a pass catcher and has caught just 1 pass for 0 yards and now he’s not even good in the same short yardage situation he used to excel in, taking 3 tries to punch it in from the 1 against Denver last week. The people who said the 30 year old was done appear to be winning that argument so far.

Just when it looked like things couldn’t get worse for Turner, he was arrested for DUI immediately following the Falcons’ win on Monday Night Football over the Broncos. This is Turner’s first offense and he will not be suspended, but it looks really bad when a starting running back gets arrested immediately following a big win, especially on that he didn’t play particularly well in. It’s unclear if this arrest, as well as his recent struggles, will lead to a reduced role for him, but it should. The Falcons spent the offseason taking up backup Jacquizz Rodgers, a 2011 5th round pick, but have given him just 12 touches to Turner’s 29 in 2 games. He deserves to be given a larger role going forward and we’ll see if he gets it this week in San Diego. He’s worth a bench stash in fantasy leagues for the time being, especially for Turner owners.

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Buccaneers bench Jeremy Trueblood

stevenlourie Buccaneers, News

Jeremy Trueblood was one of the worst starting tackles in the league in 2010, surrendering 2 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 24 quarterback hurries, while committing 4 penalties in 8 starts. He was benched down the stretch for James Lee, but resigned for starter’s money as a free agent in the 2011 offseason, signing a 2 year, 10 million dollar deal. Trueblood was even worse in 2011, starting 15 games, allowing 4 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 50 quarterback hurries (most in the league), while committing 7 penalties. This past offseason, he was forced to take a pay cut to stay on the roster, to 4.25 million from 5.25 million, but he was still being paid like a starter.

He started the opener and surrendered a quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries and then missed last week with an ankle problem. Now it appears he will continue to not start as he’s been benched permanently for Demar Dotson, who started in his absence last week. Dotson allowed just 1 quarterback hurry in that start, but he’s still inexperienced and went undrafted in 2009, so it’s unclear if he’ll continue to be the answer for the Buccaneers. If not, the Buccaneers could definitely turn to the draft to find a new starting right tackle, with Trueblood being a free agent this offseason and Dotson being owed a non-guaranteed 1.5 million in 2013.

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Patriots sign Kellen Winslow, bring back Deion Branch

stevenlourie News, Patriots

The Patriots suffered a major loss to one of their top receivers last week as tight end Aaron Hernandez suffered a high ankle sprain that is expected to keep him out 4-6 weeks. Losing Hernandez forced the Patriots to scrap their game plan very early in the game and it was definitely one of the reason why the Patriots suffered a major upset loss at home at the hands of the Cardinals. Without Hernandez, the Patriots had to go from being a two-tight end base team to a three-wide receiver base team because, for as many tight ends as they have on their roster, they didn’t have another one who could function as the move tight end like Hernandez did.

This week, the Patriots have signed Kellen Winslow to be that move tight end. Winslow is a poor blocker and he’s obviously not on the level as Hernandez as a pass catcher, but he’s closer to Hernandez than anyone they have. He’s exceeded 730 receiving yards in all 5 seasons as a pro in which he’s played all 16 games, despite never having the best group of quarterback throwing to him, and he’s played in all 16 games in 5 of the last 6 seasons. However, long term durability issues led to the 29 year old being traded by the Buccaneers to the Seahawks for a mere 7th round pick and then Seattle cutting him as part of final cuts. Still, he’s got some talent as a pass catcher and he will allow the Patriots to use more two-tight end looks this week than they did last week.

However, they will still be unable to feature the two-tight end look, which means we’re going to be seeing a lot more three-wide receiver looks than normal. Because of that, the Patriots have brought back a familiar face, signing wide receiver Deion Branch, who was cut in final cuts. In three-wide receiver sets, the Patriots will use Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, and Julian Edelman, who has always played well when needed.

However, they really lacked depth behind those 2 as Matt Slater is primarily on the roster for his special teams value and 2011 4th round pick Greg Salas, acquired from St. Louis for a late round pick before the season started, is apparently not game ready as they cut him and added him to the practice squad in favor of signing Branch to the active roster. He doesn’t have a whole lot left in the tank, but he’s knows the playbook like the back of his hand and he has the kind of chemistry with Tom Brady where they could complete passes with their eyes closed.

Obviously, Hernandez’s loss hurts, but no team adapts better than the Patriots do. In 2010, they traded Randy Moss, then a key of their offense, and went to more two-tight end looks with two rookie tight ends by the name of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. This week, they’re just doing the opposite. They did a poor job of adapting mid game last week, which is part of why they lost, but no one adapts better on a week to week basis than Bill Belichick and the Patriots.

Given that and given Tom Brady’s history when people are doubting him (In his career off a loss, he’s 28-8 SU, 24-12 ATS, off an upset loss he’s 17-4 SU, 15-6 ATS, as an underdog he’s 24-16 SU, 27-12 ATS (13-4 ATS since 2003), as an underdog off a loss he’s 11-1 SU, 11-1 ATS, and as an underdog off an upset loss 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS), I really like the Patriots to win this week. They’re being undervalued off of last week’s loss and probably are actually more likely to win after their loss last week, given their history. On top of that, the Ravens are a bit overrated. Clearly missing Terrell Suggs and other offseason losses, the Ravens have given an uncharacteristic 808 yards in 2 games, 27th in the league, and Joe Flacco had a poor showing last week after a “breakout” week 1 performance.

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Browns’ bench two in secondary

stevenlourie Browns, News

Through 2 games, Cleveland has surrendered the 7th most passing yards in the league. With Joe Haden suspended for 3 more games, that figures to only get worse. Without Haden last week, the Browns surrendered 24 completions for 318 yards and 3 touchdowns on 31 attempts, while picking off one pass, against Andy Dalton and the Bengals, who were fresh off an embarrassing offensive performance in Baltimore, in which Dalton completed 22 of 37 for 221 yards and an interception.

Seeing the secondary as a weakness, the Browns have decided to take some action and have benched two starters. Starting cornerback Sheldon Brown was benched for Buster Skrine, while starting free safety Eric Hagg was benched for Usama Young this week. Brown is 33 years old and probably at the end of his line. This demotion, even with Haden out, suggests that he’ll be no higher than 4th when Haden returns, barring injuries. In his first NFL start, Skrine, a 2011 6th round pick, was horrendous, allowing 8 completions for 89 yards on 9 attempts last week, in place of an injured Brown. Still, the Browns decided to keep him in the starting lineup permanently. However, if he continues to play like this, he’ll be benched when Joe Haden returns, in favor of keeping the veteran Dmitri Patterson in the starting lineup.

Whereas Brown being benched for Skrine was a case of a veteran being benched for a youngster, Hagg being benched for Young was a case of a struggling youngster being benched for what they hope will be a stabilizing veteran presence. Hagg, a 2011 7th round pick, has not been thrown on much, but has struggled on those occasions, allowing 2 completions for 54 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts. He’s also struggled against the run, recording just 5 total tackles, missing one, and having 2 stops. Young, a 2007 5th round pick, has yet to play a snap this season and was almost cut from an undrafted free agent as part of final cuts. Like Skrine, he does not figure to be much of an upgrade. The Browns’ defense figures to continue to be one that is very kind to opposite fantasy players, especially while Haden remains out. This week, they face the Bills.

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