Year: 2012

Falcons lose Brent Grimes for season

stevenlourie Falcons, News

The Falcons came away with a huge win week 1, beating the Chiefs 40-24 to start the season. I know the Chiefs were missing their top two defenders, but the Falcons’ new offense was as advertised and it was a good win for them on the road, where they’ve had some recent trouble. Matt Ryan was 23 of 31 for 299 yards and 3 touchdowns. However, the win was not without losses.

Top cornerback Brent Grimes tore his Achilles and was placed on IR, ending his season. Last season, Grimes was ProFootballFocus’ 3rd ranked cornerback and allowed 25 catches on 56 attempts (44.6%) for 258 yards (4.6 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 12 passes and committing 1 penalty. He was franchised tagged this offseason, but did not sign a long term deal and likely cost himself millions on any future long term deal with this injury.

The Falcons traded for Asante Samuel this offseason to shore up the #2 cornerback spot as Dunta Robinson had been struggling. Robinson will now have to step into the starting lineup with Chris Owens playing the slot. This is bad news because Robinson has struggled whenever he’s been forced to start and last year he allowed 43 catches on 77 attempts (55.8%) for 734 yards (9.5 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 4 penalties. He was ProFootballFocus’ 90th ranked cornerback out of 98.

Defense was already not a strong suit of the Falcons’ coming into the season and they even struggled to stop the Chiefs mediocre offense before the Grimes injury. The Falcons will score a lot of points and win a lot of games, but they’ll need to play a lot of shoot outs. This injury dampers, to say the least, a very good weekend which featured the Falcons winning big and the Saints losing at home.

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It’s an issue of pain tolerance for Redskins’ Pierre Garcon

stevenlourie Commanders, News

Pierre Garcon got off to a hell of a start to his season, catching 4 passes on Robert Griffin’s first 5 attempts, for 104 yards and a touchdown, looking like Kendall Wright tearing up the Big 12 with Robert Griffin last season. However, he got hurt after that and left the game with a foot injury. He did some very limited work in practice this week and he’s expected to be a game time decision. According to Head Coach Mike Shanahan, in an interview with CSN Washington, it will be a “pain tolerance” issue for Garcon, meaning, if Garcon can play through the pain, he can play. If not, he’ll sit. For what it’s worth, NFL Network’s Jason La Canfora believes he’ll sit.

In Garcon’s absence, Aldrick Robinson did his best Garcon impression, catching 4 passes for 52 yards and a score and leading the team in targets. It’s clear that Griffin likes speedsters threats like Garcon and Robinson, over possession receivers like Santana Moss and tight end Fred Davis, so Garcon should be in for another big game if healthy. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, this game is a 4 o’clock start so your options will be limited if Garcon ends up not going. Only start him if you have someone who starts at that time or later that you’d be comfortable replacing him with. Picking on Robinson as a handcuff might not be a terrible idea.

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Bills lose David Nelson for season, Fred Jackson for at least 4 weeks

stevenlourie Bills, News

The Bills didn’t just lose the opener in embarrassing fashion, 48-28; they also lost two players for an extended period of time. Wide receiver David Nelson tore his ACL and was placed on season ending IR. Nelson is a largely underwhelming talent, who caught 61 passes for 658 yards and 5 touchdowns last year, but the slot receiver was Ryan Fitzpatrick’s #2 target and plays at a position of little depth.

In his absence, starter Donald Jones, another underwhelming talent, will move from the outside to the slot on passing downs. Jones had 41 catches for 444 yards and 2 touchdowns coming into the season and didn’t do much in the opener, catching 5 passes for 41 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, 3rd round rookie TJ Graham will come into the game in 3-wide receiver sets. Graham has talent, but he’s incredibly raw, having started just one year as a wide receiver at NC State. After those 3 on the depth chart, they have career journeyman Ruvell Martin and his 20 catches over the last 3 seasons, and wildcat quarterback Brad Smith.

The other injury was to Fred Jackson. Jackson sprained his knee and was given a murky timetable of 3-8 weeks, though for what it’s worth, he says it will be 4 weeks or less. He’ll be re-evaluated in 7-10 days. He’s a more talented player, but the injury isn’t quite as severe as Nelson’s and the Bills have depth at the position. In his absence, CJ Spiller rushed for 169 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries against a normally good Jets’ run defense and added 2 catches for 25 yards. I know the Jets were without Sione Pouha, but it was still a very impressive game for him. In 6 starts last year, he rushed for 449 yards and 3 scores on 90 carries, adding in another 26 catches for 205 yards and 2 scores through the air. Remember, he was the 9th overall pick in 2010, so he should be more than capable of carrying the load in Jackson’s absence.

The one issue there is with depth behind Spiller. Spiller isn’t the prototypical lead back because of his size at 5-11 196. He’s not the short yardage back Fred Jackson was and if he proves to not be durable enough to carry the load, their next option on the depth chart is the mediocre Tashard Choice. Choice isn’t much of a short yardage back either, because he’s just generally not a great back, so he should only see a few carries per game behind Spiller, at most. It’s all on Spiller now.

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Panthers expect Steve Smith and Jonathan Stewart to play, Greg Hardy questionable

stevenlourie News, Panthers

Jonathan Stewart missed the opener against the Buccaneers and yet he has more rushing yards than DeAngelo Williams, who ended up for -1 rushing yards last year as the Buccaneers, owners of the league’s 31st ranked run defense in 2011, held them to 10 yards on 13 carries, even though the Panthers had the league’s #1 run offense in 2011. That should prove to be a fluke, especially with Jonathan Stewart returning. Cam Newton will continue to run the ball well and open things up on the ground for Stewart and Williams. Williams will get the start this week, but Stewart will have a sizeable role as a backup, as usual. Neither is much more than a low end RB2 or flex play this week though.

Steve Smith, meanwhile, is also expected to play this week, as he normally does through minor injuries. He missed some time during the week in practice, but he’ll be good to go and serve as Cam Newton’s #1 receiver again. When he led the team with 7 catches for 107 yards in the opener, it marked the 12th time in Cam Newton’s 17 starts that Steve Smith led the team in receiving. There might be more productive wide receivers, but it’s hard to argue any receiver means more to his team than Smith does, when you consider their other options.

Meanwhile, on the defensive side of the ball, the Panthers have listed defensive end Greg Hardy as questionable with a knee injury and he’s expected to be a game time decision. If he has to sit, it would be a big loss for the Panthers. He’s not a well known player, but he was an above average pass rusher last year. With 4 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 33 quarterback pressures on 503 pass rush snaps, he had a pass rush rate of 8.9%, very solid. The Panthers had the league’s 27th ranked scoring defense last year and didn’t do much at all to upgrade the defensive line or the secondary, the two more important units. They need Hardy this week against a Saints offense that you know can go off at any time, even as discombobulated as they looked in the opener.

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Giants list Marvin Austin as probable, Prince Amukamara as questionable, and Keith Rivers as doubtful

stevenlourie Giants, News

The Giants lost two key defensive players, Chris Canty and Terrell Thomas, before the season started and in the opener, they were without their replacements, Marvin Austin and Prince Amukamara respectively. Both are, however, expected to play this week, though the latter is listed as questionable. The two players were their 2nd and 1st round picks in the 2011 NFL Draft respectively.

Austin, the 2nd round pick, has not played in a football game that counted since December of 2009, missing all of 2010 with suspension and the missing all of last season with a torn pectoral, before missing the opener with a back problem. He’s expected to go this week and will either start at defensive tackle or figure heavily into the rotation behind starter Rocky Bernard.

Amukamara, meanwhile, missed most of his rookie year with injuries and opened the year as the slot cornerback. However, when Thomas tore his ACL for the 2nd straight season, Amukamara was set to step into the starting lineup, before suffering an injury of his own, a high ankle sprain. In his absence, Michael Coe and Justin Tyron saw significant action in the opener. Ironically, neither of them was as bad as Corey Webster, an entrenched starter, who was torched repeated by the Cowboys. He’ll need to clean that up this week. With Amukamara and Austin coming back, things are looking up defensively for the Giants, now close to 11 days removed from their week 1 loss.

The bad news, however, is that Keith Rivers is listed as doubtful with an injury. However, the Giants use so much rotation at linebacker that it doesn’t really matter much. Rivers had a nice debut, but 5 Giants linebackers played 24 snaps or more in the opener. In fact, Rivers played the fewest, playing 24. He won’t be missed too much as the Giants take on the Buccaneers this week. Chase Blackburn will start in the middle, with Michael Boley and Mathias Kiwanuka on the outside, and Jacquian Williams will continue to rotate in on passing downs.

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Bengals suffer another injury, lose Thomas Howard for season

stevenlourie Bengals, News

Every team has injuries, but the Bengals are one of those teams that may have more than anyone. After putting two starters on the offensive line on IR before the season, Travelle Wharton and Kyle Cook (though the latter can be reactivated later this season), the Bengals were without 4 key contributors with injury last week as Carlos Dunlap, Jason Allen, Dre Kirkpatrick, and Bernard Scott all missed.

Scott is expected to return this week, to serve as a compliment to BenJarvus Green-Ellis, but Dre Kirkpatrick will not play and Jason Allen and Carlos Dunlap are unlikely to play. Kirkpatrick’s and Allen’s absence will force Nate Clements to start at cornerback next to Leon Hall again, who is still only 10 months removed from a torn Achilles and was uncharacteristically torched because of it in the opener. Dunlap, meanwhile, is their top pass rusher.  Last year, Dunlap managed 5 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback pressures, on 302 pass rush snaps, a pass rush rate of 15.6%.

You can add one more name to that list as every down linebacker Thomas Howard has torn his ACL and will miss the rest of the season. In his absence, a trio of Dan Skuta, Vontaze Burfict, and Vincent Rey will split snaps. Without those Allen, Kirkpatrick, and Dunlap, the Bengals had a ton of troubling stopping the Ravens last week and, now without Howard, they aren’t safe bets as touchdown favorites this week, even against the lowly Browns.

Also, Andy Dalton is continuing his struggles from the 2nd half of last season (54.8% completion, 6.6 YPA, 8 touchdowns, 6 interception) and the preseason. In the opener against Baltimore, he completed 22 of 37 for 221 yards and a pick. Those numbers don’t even tell the whole story. Only 80 of those 221 yards were in the air; the rest were after the catch. He settled for short stuff all night, completing just 4 passes that went more than 10 yards through the air (4 of 11) and his adjusted QB rating of 66.2 was 26th out of 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL week 1. These two teams aren’t as unevenly matched as people commonly think.

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Steelers list Rashard Mendenhall as doubtful, expect both injured offensive linemen to play

stevenlourie News, Steelers

Rashard Mendenhall did some work in practice for the 2nd straight week, just 9 months removed from a torn ACL, but he is once again very unlikely to play this week. When they first activated him off the PUP, the plan was for him to sit for the first 3 weeks of the season, do a little work in practice with the team to get back into shape, and then to return week 5 after their bye. So far, everything seems to have gone according to plan, so we won’t see him this week or next week.

In his absence, Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer predictably split carries, but Dwyer definitely outshined him, totaling 47 yards on 11 touches, as opposed to 22 yards on 13 touches for Redman. As a result, head coach Mike Tomlin has said that Dwyer will get an expandable role this week, as he did as the game progressed last week. Expect him to start and if you are going to start one of these backs in fantasy, Dwyer is your man, though neither is advisable unless you absolutely need to because they should basically cancel each other out against a normally stout Jets run defense that returns Sione Pouha from injury this week.

The good news for the Steelers is that both of their injured offensive linemen, Ramon Foster and Marcus Gilbert, who left last week’s game, are expected to play. In their absences, Doug Legursky and Mike Adams struggled and the Steelers were down to their last healthy, active offensive linemen. Ben Roethlisberger’s protection should be better this week, unless someone else gets hurt, facing an Jets’ inferior pass rush. The Broncos’ strong pass rush pressured Roethlisberger on 18 of 46 drop backs last week, the 5th highest rate in the league. It’s a welcome relief for a Steelers’ offensive line that saw 1st round pick rookie David DeCastro suffer a potentially season ending injury in the preseason and 2nd round pick rookie Mike Adams lose his starting job to veteran Max Starks.

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Cardinals will start Kevin Kolb this week

stevenlourie Cardinals, News

With John Skelton nursing a high ankle sprain that could keep him out 2-4 weeks, it appears Ken Whisenhunt has had his quarterback controversy solved for him as Kevin Kolb will start this week and possibly into the future. Kolb was actually the superior of the two quarterbacks last season. Kolb led 91 drives, leading to 20 touchdowns and 6 field goals (138 points, 1.52 points per drive).

Skelton led 100 drives last season and the Cardinals scored 16 touchdowns and 11 field goals (129 points, 1.29 points per drive) on those 100 drives. Kolb also outplayed him statistically. He completed 146 of 253 (57.7%) for 1955 yards (7.7 YPA), 9 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Skelton completed just 151 for 275 (54.9%) for 1913 yards (7.0 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Skelton was 6-2 in the 8 games he played the majority of the snaps, while Kolb was 2-6, but Skelton had the luxury of playing most of his games supported by better defensive play. In Skelton’s 8 games, the Cardinals allowed 19.0 points per game and in Kolb’s they allowed 24.5.

Either way though, the Cardinals would appear to be pretty screwed this week going into New England and going forward into the season in general. Kolb’s 1.52 points per drive was equal to Washington’s last season and they ranked 22nd, while Skelton’s 1.29 was between Denver’s (1.38) and Indianapolis’ (1.24). They ranked 27th and 28th respectively last season.

They may be 1-0, after beating the Seahawks in Arizona, but that’s not a huge accomplishment because the Seahawks were starting a 3rd round rookie quarterback with a subpar offensive line and a mediocre receiving corps and because the Seahawks suck on the road. Things get much tougher for them going forward and no matter who the quarterback is, they figure to be one of the worst teams in the league.

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Titans’ Jake Locker and Kenny Britt to play this week, Nate Washington, Colin McCarthy unlikely

stevenlourie News, Titans

Jake Locker went down with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder last week against the Patriots, but he’s been practicing all week and will start. As he returns, he gets Kenny Britt back from suspension, but loses Nate Washington, likely, with an injury of his own. Britt is an incredibly talented player who has caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns in his last 13 games. He’ll probably be limited to just passing downs, with Kendall Wright and Damian Williams working as the starters, as he comes off a knee injury, but he’s still talented enough to make an impact with a limited snap count.

Locker completed 23 of 32 for 229 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception last week before going down with an injury, despite a rough day from Nate Washington, who only caught 2 of 7 targets, dropping 3. Locker’s adjusted QB rating, which takes into account drops, non-targets (throw aways, spikes, etc), and YAC, was 95.3 in the opener, 10th best in the league last week. With Britt coming in, even with Washington going out, he should be able to have another good game this week.

I still believe the Titans are a sleeper team; they just ran into possibly the best team in the league in the opener. They had the league’s 8th ranked scoring defense last year, despite having 6 of 11 starters in their 3rd year or younger. That continued growth and maturity, as well as their cornerback depth, and the addition of Kamerion Wimbley and potential breakout of Derrick Morgan as much needed pass rushers would cancel out the loss of Cortland Finnegan.

Offensively, I felt they should continue to have one of the best passing blocking offensive lines, led by bookend tackles Michael Roos and David Stewart and I felt their run blocking would be better with Steve Hutchinson replacing Jake Scott at guard. Meanwhile, I felt Chris Johnson would be back to his old self. Chris Johnson averaged 3.0 YPC in his first 8 games last season after missing most of the offseason with a new coaching staff coming in and also getting out of shape. However, he averaged 4.8 YPC the rest of the way and put in a ton of work this offseason to get back into tip top shape, attending every single one of the Titans’ offseason activities, even the optional ones (OTAs) which he would normally skip in order to train at home in Orlando.

They also have Kenny Britt returning from injury. Britt missed 13 ½ games with injury last year, but he’s still only 24 (later this month) and the 2009 1st round pick has 56 catches for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns in his last 13 full games. In 2010, when Britt was healthy (11 games) and Chris Johnson was still his old self, the Titans averaged 27.1 points per game in those 11 games. That number is a little skewed because the Titans had an unrealistically low yards per point ratio, but the point is, when they have all their offensive weapons, they can put points on the board.

Since then, Nate Washington and Jared Cook have broken out in Britt’s absence and the latter could be even better this year after catching 21 passes for 335 yards and a touchdown in his final 3 years last year. They also add 1st round pick Kendall Wright as a 3rd receiver. On top of that, they’ve made an obvious upgrade at quarterback going from Kerry Collins and Vince Young to Matt Hasselbeck and now to Jake Locker, who led them to 1.83 points per drive last year, as opposed to 1.63 points per drive for Hasselbeck (albiet in limited action).

Basically, I felt the same way about the Titans that I did at that point last year about the Lions, who proved me right. And you know what, none of that has really changed. I’m a little bit more worried about Chris Johnson now and the injury to Nate Washington hurts, but they should be able to pull off an upset victory against a Charger team that perennially underachieves in September and October. One other injury that hurts is to linebacker Colin McCarthy, who had a very solid season as a rookie last year, but that won’t kill them. Talented 2nd round rookie Zach Brown will step into the lineup for him.

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Steelers to be without James Harrison, probably Troy Polamalu this week

stevenlourie News, Steelers

When the Steelers play the Jets this week, the Jets will be without a key defensive player, Darrelle Revis, but the Steelers will also be without a key defensive player and maybe even two. James Harrison, who was supposed to play last week, will miss his 2nd straight week after having supposedly minor knee surgery last month. Now reports say that he might not play at all until after the Steelers’ week 4 bye. In his absence, 2011 5th round pick Chris Carter played last week and didn’t do much. He’ll start again and split snaps with Jason Worilds, another young pass rusher.

Polamalu’s injury is more serious because of what he means to that defense. The Steelers have a great defense, but no player is more important to their defense than him. Over the last 3 years, when he plays, the Steelers are 27-8 and allow 14.4 points per game and without him, they’re 6-7 and allow 21.5 points per game. That’s not all him, but a lot of that is him. He’s their only irreplaceable defensive player and his mere presence can disrupt passing plays and running plays.

I made the argument for an improved Steeler defense before the season, improved even off their league leading scoring defense last year. I noted that they had just 15 turnovers last year and that since 2002, 38 teams have had 20 or fewer takeaways in a season. Those teams had, on average, 7.53 more takeaways and won 1.41 more games the following season.

They also had several key injuries on defense last year. Both outside linebackers James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley missed time, which forced Jason Worilds to step into the starting lineup and Lawrence Timmons to move from inside linebacker to outside linebacker. Worilds did fine, though he certainly wasn’t as good as Woodley or Harrison would have been, but Timmons was awful. Clearly not a natural pass rusher, he had just 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback pressure on 114 pass rush snaps in 4 starts, a pathetic 2.6% rate. Timmons was ProFootballFocus’ highest rated middle linebacker in 2010, so him being inside for all 16 games will definitely help their defense. Even if it wasn’t improved, they looked poised for their SEVENTH top-3 scoring defense since 2004.

However, the Steelers could have all that derailed if their most important and irreplaceable defensive player misses several games with injury or starts to show his age at all at age 31. He didn’t show his age in the opener, but he’s very likely to miss at least one game, as he didn’t practice all week with a calf problem. The last time the Steelers missed the playoffs and didn’t have a top-3 scoring defense was in 2009, when Polamalu missed 11 games.

It’s not a huge concern yet because it’s only one game so far and they should be able to beat the Jets, who still have an inconsistent quarterback and whose “offensive explosion” last week, was a result of the Bills’ offense giving them great field position all night, a pick six, a punt return touchdown, and the Bills’ defense quitting after going down big early. The Jets are also hurt by the injury to top cornerback Darrelle Revis, who might be as irreplaceable to them as Polamalu is to the Steelers. The situation is definitely one to monitor going forward past this week, however.

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