Year: 2012

Cleveland Browns: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Browns

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 0-2

The Browns hung with an overrated Bengals team this weekend, but I think Cincinnati is one of the worst teams in the league. 2 weeks into the season, the Browns are one of just 6 teams without a win and appear to be the weakest of the 6. They’re currently the leaders in the Blow for Barkley sweepstakes. The question is, would they take Barkley and give up on Weeden after one year, or trade the pick for a king’s ransom like the Rams did last year, and move forward with Weeden into his age 30 season in 2013?

Studs

LG Jason Pinkston: Did not allow a pressure on 41 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards on 3 attempts

RT Mitchell Schwartz: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 41 pass block snaps, run blocked for 21 yards on 4 attempts

RB Trent Richardson: Rushed for 109 yards (41 after contact) and a touchdown on 19 carries, broke 1 tackle, caught 4 passes for 36 yards and a touchdown on 4 targets

MLB D’Qwell Jackson: Allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 1 attempt, 1 interception, 3 sacks on 6 blitzes, 1 solo tackle, 4 stops

Duds

RG Shawn Lauvao: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 41 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 9 yards on 2 attempts

CB Buster Skrine: Allowed 8 catches for 94 yards on 9 attempts, 1 penalty, 7 solo tackles, 1 stop, 3 missed tackles

FS Eric Hagg: Allowed 1 catch for 44 yards and a touchdown on 1 attempt, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed special teams tackle

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Yards per play

stevenlourie 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks
Team OYPP YPP Differential
Philadelphia 4.3 5.8 1.5
Carolina 5.4 6.9 1.5
Denver 4.1 5.5 1.4
Dallas 5 6.4 1.4
Minnesota 4.6 5.8 1.2
New England 4.3 5.4 1.1
Houston 4.1 5 0.9
San Francisco 5.1 5.9 0.8
Buffalo 6 6.8 0.8
Green Bay 4.6 5.1 0.5
Detroit 5.2 5.7 0.5
Baltimore 5.6 6.1 0.5
San Diego 4.9 5.2 0.3
Washington 6.3 6.4 0.1
Atlanta 5.4 5.4 0
Oakland 5.5 5.5 0
Arizona 4.3 4.2 -0.1
Cleveland 5.5 5.4 -0.1
Miami 5.6 5.5 -0.1
NY Giants 6.8 6.7 -0.1
Seattle 4.8 4.3 -0.5
Chicago 5.2 4.7 -0.5
St Louis 6.4 5.9 -0.5
Indianapolis 5.6 5 -0.6
Pittsburgh 5.2 4.6 -0.6
NY Jets 6 5.3 -0.7
Tennessee 5.7 4.9 -0.8
New Orleans 6.9 6 -0.9
Kansas City 6.9 5.8 -1.1
Jacksonville 5.7 4.2 -1.5
Cincinnati 7.2 5.3 -1.9
Tampa Bay 7.2 5 -2.2

Yards per play differential is the single most accurate measure of how a team is playing, more so than win-loss record, point differential, yards per game, etc. We’ve only played 2 games, so it’s important to remember that this is just a measure of performance in the first 2 games, and also that strength of schedule does matter, but this can be a very valuable tool for making picks against the spread.

Week 3 Fantasy Football Waiver Claims

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football, 2012 Waiver Claims

WR Danny Amendola (St. Louis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 15.7%

Danny Amendola is by far Sam Bradford’s favorite target and with Bradford looking improved early in the season, expect Amendola to put up good numbers the rest of the way, until further notice. In 2 games, he’s caught 20 passes for 230 yards and a score and half been the recipient on close to half of the Rams’ receiving yards.

RB Daryl Richardson (St. Louis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.4%

Steven Jackson left the game and didn’t return. It was originally speculated that Jackson was benched following a penalty, but Jeff Fisher claimed it was a groin injury. Either way, Daryl Richardson looked great in his absence, rushing for 83 yards on 15 carries. Jackson had been looking pretty washed up this season before getting benched, with 111 yards on 30 carries, which makes sense because of his age and his career usage, and now could miss time, for whatever reason. Richardson could continue to start going forward, so he should be picked up in all leagues. Monitor the situation.

RB Andre Brown (NY Giants)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.1%

Ahmad Bradshaw could miss a significant period of time with injury and Tom Coughlin still doesn’t seem to trust rookie David Wilson, giving him just 3 carries. The veteran Brown got 13 carries and rushed for 71 yards and a touchdown. He also added 2 catches for 19 yards. Wilson could see a bigger role next week, but as long as Bradshaw is out, consider Wilson the backup and Brown the starter, which makes him worth a waiver claim in all leagues.

WR Brandon LaFell (Carolina)

Percent owned (ESPN): 24.3%

After Steve Smith, there’s no one Cam Newton likes throwing to more than 3rd year receiver Brandon LaFell. LaFell has 9 catches for 155 yards and a touchdown in 2 games and is 2nd on one of the league’s better passing offenses in targets.

WR Brian Hartline (Miami)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.1%

It’s clear that Brian Hartline is Ryan Tannehill’s favorite target. What’s not clear is if Tannehill will be consistent enough for any of his wide receivers to be fantasy startable, but Hartline is worth a stash on your bench for now. He’s caught 12 passes for 161 yards in 2 games.

TE Dennis Pitta (Baltimore)

Percent owned (ESPN): 22.7%

Unlike previous years, where Flacco threw to both of his tight ends equally, Flacco seems to really favor Dennis Pitta this year. In 2 games, Pitta has 13 catches for 138 yards and a touchdown, while Dickson has just 3 catches for 45 yards. If you need a tight end, Pitta is your man this week.

WR Julian Edelman (New England)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.4%

Edelman got the surprise start over Wes Welker against Arizona and played more snaps than him. Normally I’d question whether or not that would be the case going forward, but Aaron Hernandez is out for about 6 weeks so the Patriots won’t have any choice but to go to more 3-wide receiver sets, with Brandon Lloyd, Wes Welker, and Julian Edelman. Edelman, who caught 5 passes for 50 yards this week despite a relatively weak showing by the Patriots’ passing offense, will have a prominent role in one of the league’s best passing offenses going forward.

QB Christian Ponder (Minnesota)

Percent owned (ESPN): 4.6%

Of the five 2nd year quarterbacks, Ponder seems to be the only one improved over his rookie year. He’s completed 47 of 62 for 515 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2 games. He has a tough matchup this week against San Francisco, but he’s worth a pickup as a QB2 and bye week filler going forward.

WR Donnie Avery (Indianapolis)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.4%

Donnie Avery has started each of the first 2 games with Austin Collie out and will continue to do so until Collie returns. He hasn’t looked bad, catching 12 passes for 148 yards and a touchdown. Collie is out indefinitely. He could be back this week, but that’s been the case in each of the last 2 weeks and he hasn’t played. Concussions are tricky to put a timetable on, especially with someone who has a history of them like Collie. Avery might be worth a bench stash.

RB Bilal Powell (NY Jets)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.5%

Shonn Greene hasn’t looked good in the first 2 games, with 117 yards and a score on 38 carries and Bilal Powell, the Jets’ #2 back, started taking touches away from Greene this week, carrying it 9 times to Greene’s 11. Some of that had to do with Greene missing some time with injury, but Powell continued to see the field some even after Greene returned and he looked like the better back. If Greene continues to struggle, expect Powell, the better pass catcher as well, to continue eating into his touches. He’s worth a stash in deep leagues.

TE Brandon Myers (Oakland)

Percent owned (ESPN): 0.2%

He doesn’t have much of a track record, but it’s worth noting that Myers has caught 11 passes for 151 yards in 2 games. In deep leagues, he’s worth a look if you need a tight end, but there’s a reason he’s towards the bottom of this list.

TE Scott Chandler (Buffalo)

Percent owned (ESPN): 16.1%

Just like last year, Ryan Fitzpatrick loves throwing to him on the goal line. Last year he had 6 touchdowns and this year he has 2 in as many games, to go with 6 catches for 91 yards in 2 games. He’s at the bottom of this list for a reason, but he’s worth a look in deep leagues and touchdown leagues.

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Week 2 NFL Picks Results

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks

Week 2 Results

ATS: 8-6-2 -1 units/-$155

SU: 11-5

Upset Picks: 4-3 +705

Total: +$550

Public Results ATS*: 7-9 -7 units

2012 results to date

ATS: 16-14-2 -5 units/-$810

SU: 20-12

Upset Picks: 7-7 +$455

Total: -$355

Survivor: 1-1 (HOU, NE)

Public Results ATS*: 14-18 -13 units

*I’m doing this to see how the general public does. Based on percent of bets on each team, if the more popularly bet team covers, it’s a public win, if not, it’s a public loss. If a team that has 50-59% of the action on it covers, the public gets “one unit,” if they don’t cover, they lose one unit, 60-69% is 2, 70-79% is 3, etc.

Colts rule Dwight Freeney out, Austin Collie doubtful

stevenlourie Colts, News

Dwight Freeney left last week’s game against the Bears with an ankle injury and even though Head Coach Chuck Pagano said earlier this week that they expected him back “sooner as opposed to later,” he is currently listed as out for this week’s game against the Vikings and Bob Kravitz of the Indianapolis Star says that it will probably be a “couple of weeks” according to what he’s “hearing.” In his absence, 2010 1st round pick Jerry Hughes had a pair of quarterback hurries on 22 pass rush snaps. He’ll get the start again this week.

Meanwhile, Austin Collie is unlikely to go, even though there was a lot of optimism with his situation earlier in the week. Collie reportedly felt great before last week’s game, but they held him out as a precaution. He practiced fully on Wednesday, but it sounds like he had a setback on Thursday or something. Still, even after Thursday, offensive coordinator Bruce Arians made it sound like he’d be ready to go, saying “He could line up anywhere. He has the position flexibility to do anything. He would start out wide and go from there.” However, they eventually listed him as doubtful.

Between this and Freeney’s situation, it’s becoming increasingly tough to trust the Colts’ new coaching staff’s word on injuries. The official injury report seems to be the only thing that’s reliable. In Collie’s absence, Donnie Avery will start again, while Kris Adams will once again line up in the slot. Avery caught 3 passes for 37 yards and a touchdown in the opener, while Adams caught 2 passes for 26 yards. Don’t trust any Colts receiver in fantasy aside from Wayne until Collie returns. For now, assume Collie is out week 3 and indefinitely until you hear otherwise.

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Cowboys rule Jay Ratliff, Phil Costa out

stevenlourie Cowboys, News

When the Cowboys take on the Seahawks this week, they will be without the middle of both their offensive and defensive lines and nose tackle Jay Ratliff and center Phil Costa have been ruled out. Ratliff missed the opener as well with a high ankle sprain. In his absence, defensive end Sean Lissemore played more inside, while Josh Price-Brent got the start at nose tackle. The Cowboys played well on the defensive line and were able to hold the Giants to 17 points. Jason Hatcher had a huge game with 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback pressures, but if he hadn’t done that, they would have missed Ratliff a lot more. Ratliff was ProFootballFocus’ 7th rated defensive tackle last year and he is expected back next week.

Costa, meanwhile, had been having back troubles throughout the preseason, but started anyway week 1. He had to leave after reinjuring his back and will not play this week. Ryan Cook, who was acquired from the Dolphins for a late round pick right before final cuts, stepped in for him last week and will get the start once again. He represents a weakness on the offensive line for the Cowboys, as do new starters Mackenzy Bernadeau and Nate Livings. Livings was awful in 2011 with the Bengals and Bernadeau is a career backup and former 7th round pick so I have no idea why the Cowboys paid him starter’s money to start for them. The Seahawks’ defensive line is stout in the middle and stout against the run, so DeMarco Murray could have a tough time establishing himself this week. The NFL’s 6th ranked run defense last year, they held Arizona to 43 yards on 20 carries in the opener.

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Dolphins rule Daniel Thomas out with a concussion

stevenlourie Dolphins, News

Daniel Thomas is the Dolphins’ 2nd string running back and is the type of player who could have a big role on a weekly basis, depending on the matchup, because of how much the Dolphins like to run. They only got the run 19 times in the opener, 2 of which were quarterback scrambles, because they were down by so much, so Thomas only had 3 carries. He did catch a catch for 32 yards though. This week they should have a more evenly matched game, playing the Oakland Raiders, but Thomas will not play.

Thomas suffered a concussion last week towards the end of the game. He was given clearance to play this week, which is a good sign going forward, but the Dolphins are being extra cautious with the 2011 2nd round pick and will hold him out anyway. Lamar Miller, a 4th round rookie and a game day inactive week 1, will serve as Reggie Bush’s primary backup.

There shouldn’t be a huge drop off, if any, as Thomas has disappointed in his career thus far, averaging just 3.5 YPC. Miller might even be an upgrade and use this game as a launching pad to become the primary #2 back over Thomas, who had been in the new coaching staff’s doghouse at times this offseason. Marcus Thigpen, meanwhile, will continue to serve as the 3rd game day active back because of his role as a return man on special teams. In the opener, he averaged 27.4 yards per return on 5 kickoffs and returned a punt to the house 72 yards for the team’s only touchdown of the day.

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Broncos place Ty Warren on IR, work out 3 defensive tackles

stevenlourie Broncos, News

Ty Warren can’t seem to catch a break. After missing the entirety of the last 2 seasons with separate injuries, Ty Warren’s 2012 season lasted just 1 game before he was put on IR after tearing his triceps again. Warren was not a huge part of the Broncos’ defense, but the Broncos need to replenish depth with him out and worked out 3 defensive tackles for the spot, Brian Price, Terrell McClain, and Daniel Muir, though they have not signed one yet.

Price and McClain would be the high risk, high reward guys. McClain was a 3rd round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, but really struggled last year and the Panthers surprisingly gave up on him after just 1 year, making him a final cut. Price, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2010, but he really struggled last year and after a tumultuous offseason filled with off the field distractions, Price started a fight with a teammate in Tampa Bay and was promptly shipped to the Bears for a late round pick. The Bears later made him a final cut. Both have upside, but neither have proven they can make good on it. Muir, meanwhile, is a veteran journeyman who offers no upside.

As for Warren, it’s definitely fair to wonder if this is the end of the line for the 2003 1st round pick and one time All-Pro. He’ll be a free agent next offseason and there won’t be a huge market for a 32 year old free agent who has missed 47 of 48 games over the last 3 seasons with injury. He already had to take a pay cut from 4 million to 1.5 million just to stay on the Broncos’ roster this season and might not find a single taker next offseason.

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Missing several receivers, Saints will give Joseph Morgan a chance

stevenlourie Saints

The Saints are missing several depth receivers with injury. They’ve already put Nick Toon and Adrian Arrington on IR, while Devery Henderson will miss this week with a concussion. However, the NFL is a next man up league and for the Saints, that next man up is 2011 undrafted free agent Joseph Morgan. Morgan, out of Walsh University, made his NFL debut last week and was very quiet, failing to record a catch on 2 targets on 30 pass snaps, but in his 2nd NFL game, he could bounce back and should play a higher percentage of the passing snaps (last week he played exactly half).

Still, he remains a poor fantasy option as Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Lance Moore, and Darren Sproles all figure to be more popular targets than him. Moore gets a boost up in fantasy leagues though with Morgan out. Moore led the team with 6 catches for 120 yards in the opener and has always stepped up when need be in the past. Moore is no slouch, with 118 catches for 1390 yards and 16 touchdowns in the last 2 seasons combined and is a borderline WR3 in fantasy leagues this week.

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Eagles expect both DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin to play

stevenlourie Eagles, News

When healthy, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin represent one of the two receiving duos in the NFL. Unfortunately for the Eagles, both have injuries that caused them to miss some practice time. Both are listed as questionable, as Maclin has a hip injury and Jackson has a hamstring problem. Both, however, are expected to play, barring any further setbacks between now and game time, despite their questionable tag. Maclin assured reporters he would play Friday after practicing in limited fashion, while multiple sources believe Jackson will play, including the Philadelphia Inquirer and NFL Network’s Jason La Canfora. The Eagles will need all the help they can get as they head home to play a Baltimore team coming off a big Monday Night win.

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