Year: 2012

Seahawks expect Doug Baldwin to play, Golden Tate to miss

stevenlourie News, Seahawks

Even though he missed all of the preseason after undergoing hamstring surgery, the Seahawks expect Doug Baldwin to play and man the slot at wide receiver this week against the Arizona Cardinals. The same can’t be said for Golden Tate, who was originally supposed to split snaps at one starting wide receiver spot with Braylon Edwards. Tate has a knee problem that will keep him out for this week and possibly even more as he has not been given a timetable for return. Edwards will start in his absence, opposite Sidney Rice.

It’s a situation to avoid in fantasy, especially with a 3rd round rookie making his first regular season start under center. This receiving corps also won’t help Russell Wilson out much. The Seahawks are going to have to win a lot of games this year by running the football, playing strong defense, and avoiding turnovers, unless Wilson can prove his preseason was not a fluke.

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Patriots aren’t expecting Brian Waters to show up

stevenlourie News, Patriots

The Patriots held out to the very last moment, keeping his locker and his spot on the roster, but it appears that Brian Waters is not walking through that door for the Patriots. According to the Boston Herald, the Patriots have taken his nameplate off the locker and any speculation that Waters could return “should just about come to an end.” Waters presence for the season was a question all offseason, but apparently the Patriots wanted him to take a pay cut down to the veteran’s minimum heading into his age 35 season and he didn’t feel it was worth leaving his family in Texas for that.

Waters will definitely be missed. ProFootballFocus’ 4th rated guard in 2011, Waters would have almost certainly been an asset to the Patriots even at his age. His presence would have not only upgraded the right guard position, where the mediocre Dan Connolly now starts, but it would have allowed Connolly to move to center, where would have provided a more experienced option over Ryan Wendell, a former undrafted free agent who won the job over Dan Koppen in the preseason. Wendell has played well in his career in limited action, but it remains to be seen if he can keep it up over a full season.

The Patriots offensive line is looking like a real problem, especially since Sebastian Vollmer is questionable for week 1 with lower back problems. Left tackle Nate Solder is a 2011 1st round rookie who needs to step it up this season as Brady’s full time blindside protector. Only left guard Logan Mankins is dependable on this line. Tom Brady is not on the level of Drew Brees and Peyton Manning when it comes to dealing with pressure. He’s taken a sack on 15.7% pressured drop backs, which is good, but not great.

He also only has completed 220 of 441 passes (49.9%) and thrown 23 touchdowns to 13 interceptions under pressure over the last 3 season, as opposed to 994 for 1425 (69.8%) with 94 touchdowns to 24 interceptions while not under pressure. If you want to nitpick his game, this is the area to do it. If you can beat his offensive line with 4 guys (like the Giants), Brady is stoppable. This has a chance to derail what otherwise looks like an explosive offense with the addition of Brandon Lloyd at wide receiver and Stevan Ridley emerging at running back.

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Jake Long expected to suit up for Dolphins

stevenlourie Dolphins, News

He gave them a scare, but it appears that Jake Long’s MCL sprain, suffered last week in practice, was of the minor variety and he will be able to play against Houston this week. He’s listed as probable and practiced in full Friday. If he hadn’t been able to go, simply put, the Dolphins would have been screwed against a Texans defense that ranked 4th in scoring and 6th in defense last year, with a raw rookie quarterback under center, no good receivers, and no true above average starter on the offensive line. Even with Long though, their outlook looks pretty bleak against the Texans in Houston. It’s more of a question of whether or not the Dolphins can cover as 13 point underdog, the biggest line this week, than if they can win. Anyone who plays Survivor Leagues should feel confident in picking Houston this week.

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Jets expect Dustin Keller to play, but not Sione Pouha

stevenlourie Jets, News

When the Jets take on the Bills this week, tight end Dustin Keller, who has been limited in practice, is expected to play, but nose tackle Sione Pouha will not. Keller’s presence will be a good thing because he led this miserable receiving corps in receiving last year, but Rex Ryan didn’t sound too confident about his chances to be 100% saying, “We’ll see how much it will limit him. I’m not sure, but he practiced today.” The last thing they need is their best receiver to be less than 100%. Santonio Holmes is also nursing some injury problems and Stephen Hill, their 2nd round rookie, is incredibly raw, though it’s not like Mark Sanchez would be able to get the most out of them anyway.

The Jets have a good defense and so do the Bills, so this should be a defensive, low scoring game, which is why Pouha’s absence is significant. Pouha was ProFootballFocus’ #1 defensive tackle last year. No nose tackle stuffs the run like him. 2011 3rd round pick Kenrick Ellis will step into the lineup for him, but it’ll almost definitely be a noticeable downgrade. The Bills talented duo of Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller should be able to run on a normally stout Jets defense, 7th in the league last year.

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Jaguars rule out Daryl Smith, Derek Cox

stevenlourie Jaguars, News

The Jaguars will not only be without Maurice Jones-Drew full strength against the Vikings, as they’re going to limit him to 3rd down work only about a week after a return from suspension, but they will be missing two key defensive players, Daryl Smith and Derek Cox. Smith was ProFootballFocus’ 2nd ranked outside linebacker last season, only behind Von Miller, while Derek Cox was a real shutdown cornerback in limited action in his 3rd year in the league last year, before going out with injuries.

Cox, a surprise 3rd round pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, didn’t play well as a starter in either 2009 or 2010, but was awesome to start the season last year. He allowed just 9 completions on 28 attempts (32.1%) for 105 yards (3.8 YPA), no touchdowns, and no interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and being penalized once. His 44.5 QB rating would have been 2nd in the league had he had enough snaps to qualify. If he can stay healthy and keep that up over an entire season, he’ll emerge as one of the top cornerbacks in the league, but those are pretty big ifs, especially now that he’s missing this game.

Both Smith and Cox missing this game will make things even harder on the Jaguars travelling to Minnesota. The Vikings will also be without star running back Adrian Peterson in his usual capacity, but he’s not as big a part of their offense as MJD, who accounted for 47.7% of the Jaguars yards from scrimmage last year, most since OJ Simpson in 1974. The Vikings also have the superior 2nd year quarterback. In the 9 games in which Ponder led the team in passing attempts, the team scored 22.9 points per game, which would have been 16th in the league last season.

The Vikings’ back 7 is pretty bad in coverage, which is why they ranked 30th against the pass, allowing 8.1 YPA last year, despite 50 sacks. However, Blaine Gabbert really struggles with pressure in his face and the Vikings can pressure the quarterback as well as any team in the league. Gabbert ranked 2nd worst in the NFL with a 52.9% accuracy percentage under pressure (discounts drops, throw aways, spikes, batted passes, and hit as throwns) and worst in the NFL taking a sack on 26.1% of his pressured drop backs.

Unless he is a dramatically different quarterback in the face of pressure from last year to this year, he doesn’t figure to be able to take advantage of Minnesota’s poor back 7 in coverage. The Vikings 6th ranked run defense from 2011 should be able to stop Jennings and the Jaguars will have trouble moving the football. Ponder, meanwhile, won’t against a Jacksonville defense missing Smith and Cox.

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Chargers’ Ryan Matthews won’t play week 1, sets sights on week 2

stevenlourie Chargers, News

He did some work in practice this week, but Ryan Mathews has been officially ruled out by the Chargers’ coaching staff for their Monday Night game against the Oakland Raiders. Mathews said of the situation “the next game, that’s what I’m looking for now. I don’t know about the team, but me personally, now I’m looking for that game against Tennessee.” Since he did some practice this week, it sounds like he’ll be able to go next week, which would be right in the middle of the 4-6 week prognosis he was given after the August 9th injury.

In his absence, the Chargers will use a trio of Ronnie Brown, Curtis Brinkley, and Le’Ron McClain and though none of those backs stand out and it initially sounded like they would split carries and cancel each other out in fantasy, it now sounds like Brown will be the lead back. Norv Turner loves using feature backs and he seems to like Brown, saying of him that he will be “very involved.” Brown isn’t a very talented back, heading into his age 31 season after averaging just 3.2 YPC last season, but he’ll get volume yardage and the Raiders had the league’s worst run defense last year, so he’s startable in fantasy.

He’s obviously a downgrade from Mathews though and for a Chargers’ offense missing left tackle Jared Gaither and wide receiver Vincent Brown already, Philip Rivers has his work cut out for him, even against the Raiders’ terrible defense. The Raiders have enough offensive firepower and the crowd will be crazy in Oakland for a rare Monday night home game so the Chargers will need to avoid their annual early season funk or they could lose. More likely, I think the Chargers beat the Raiders in unimpressive fashion the way they beat teams similar caliber teams like Minnesota, Kansas City, Miami, and Denver last year, to start 4-1.

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Colts expect Austin Collie to be a game time decision

stevenlourie Colts, News

Austin Collie suffered his 4th concussion in 21 months last month, but it was of the minor variety and he’s been practicing all week. However, he has yet to be cleared to participate in game action and if he isn’t by game time tomorrow, he won’t be allowed to play so it sounds like he’ll be a game time decision and even that might be optimistic. You obviously want to be cautious for this type of injury, even minor ones, and he won’t be cleared unless he’s definitely able to go, so it doesn’t sound like he will be. He sounds like a pretty good bet for week 2 though since he’s been practicing. Reggie Wayne will get a bump in fantasy this week, even against Chicago’s stout passing defense, while the rest of Indianapolis’ receiving corps is off limits. Either Donnie Avery or 3rd round rookie TY Hilton would get the start in place of Collie.

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Beanie Wells injures hamstring in practice, Cardinals list him as questionable

stevenlourie Cardinals, News

The Cardinals, unfortunately, had to update their injury report to including Beanie Wells after he hurt his hamstring in Friday’s practice. He is listed as questionable and will probably be a game time decision. Wells certainly has an injury history and missed most of this offseason with knee problems, so this is not a good sign as he tries to hold off the now healthy 2011 2nd round pick Ryan Williams, who outplayed him in the preseason, for the starting running back job.

If Wells can’t go, Williams will see the bulk of the carries against Seattle and he’s probably the superior back so they might not miss Wells much. If Williams were to get the start, he’d be fantasy startable, even with a tough matchup. The problem is that this game is a 4 o’clock start and since it’s a game time decision, owners of Wells and Williams probably won’t know until many of the alternatives have already started. If you start Wells and he doesn’t play, your options to replace him will be limited, and vice versa if you start Williams and Wells does play. The Seahawks have a very stout run defense, 4th in the league last year, so it’s advisable to stay away from Arizona’s backfield this week.

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Texans expect Arian Foster, Brooks Reed to be a game time decision

stevenlourie News, Texans

No team is a bigger favorite this week than the Texans, who are 12 point favorites at home over the Miami Dolphins. This is with good reason. The Texans won 10 games and made it to the AFC’s divisional round, despite Andre Johnson missing 9 games and Matt Schaub missing the final 7, including playoffs (they were 8-3 and had the league’s best Pythagorean Expectation when he went down). The Dolphins, meanwhile, won just 6 games last year and are starting a raw quarterback in Ryan Tannehill, who has 19 collegiate starts. They also traded away their only good wide receiver Brandon Marshall this offseason and have some problems on the offensive line. Defensively, they switched schemes to one that several of their key players don’t fit as well (Jared Odrick, Paul Soliai, and possibly Cameron Wake) and traded away their #1 cornerback, Vontae Davis, to the Colts.

However, the Texans could be without 2 key contributors when they face Miami as Arian Foster and Brooks Reed both injured themselves in practice this week. They’ll both be game time decisions. These are obviously both big losses, as Arian Foster has rushed for 2840 yards and 23 touchdowns on 605 carries over the last two seasons, while catching 119 passes for 1221 yards and another 4 scores. Brooks Reed, meanwhile, had a very strong rookie year last year, with 10 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 26 quarterback pressures on 471 pass rush snaps, good for an 8.9% rate. He also played the run very well.

However, the Texans may hold both out against such a weak opponent, rather than risk further injury. Besides, they have the depth to make up for it. The Texans used a 1st round pick on a rush linebacker in Whitney Mercilus, who I thought was the draft class’ best pure pass rusher. He’d step into the lineup for Reed. Meanwhile, #2 running back Ben Tate rushed for 942 yards and 4 touchdowns on 175 carries last season, including 398 yards and 2 scores on 82 carries in 4 starts in Foster’s absence last season. This is a 1 o’clock start game season fantasy owners of Foster and Tate will know whether or not to start their back before the deadline for rosters to be set.

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Seahawks expect Marshawn Lynch to be a game time decision

stevenlourie News, Seahawks

Marshawn Lynch escaped suspension, at least for now, after being arrested for DUI this offseason, but he could still miss week 1 after his back spasms flared up again. A recurring injury, they cost Lynch one game last season and limited him throughout the preseason. If he can’t go, Robert Turbin, a 4th round rookie, would get the start.

The Seahawks need him out there, even against the lowly Cardinals. The Seahawks have a below average receiving corps and are pretty weak on the offensive line and, as good as Russell Wilson looked in the preseason, it’s important to remember that he’s still a 3rd round rookie making his 1st career start. They’re also a poor road team, going 11-31 on the road since 2007, so they shouldn’t take the Cardinals lightly in Arizona, even as bad as their quarterbacks looked this preseason. The Cardinals, like the Seahawks, have a good young defense and might be able to pull the upset at home, especially if Lynch misses the game.

As for fantasy football, this is unfortunately a 4 o’clock game so if Lynch can’t go, your options will be limited to replace him. It’s recommended that all Lynch owners pick up Robert Turbin if he’s available. Not only would Turbin get the start if Lynch, who has an inconsistent history, misses any time this year, Turbin will eat into Lynch’s carries a little even if he’s healthy. The Seahawks really like the 4th round rookie and figure to run the ball a lot this year, supported by a strong defense, with a mobile rookie quarterback under center with a poor receiving corps.

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