Year: 2012

Browns expect Trent Richardson to start, but may limit his carries

stevenlourie Browns, News

Trent Richardson had 2 knee surgeries this offseason, including one just about a month ago, but he’s still expected to start this week against the Eagles. However, the Browns may limit his carries after he was limited in practice all week. Montario Hardesty will be the beneficiary of Richardson ceding any carries on early downs, while 3rd down specialist Brandon Jackson will continue to serve in that role.

Still, it’s not a good sign that he’s had two surgeries and rookie running backs have trouble adjusting to the 16 game workload of the NFL historically anyway. 1st round pick running backs have averaged just 165 carries as rookies since 2007. Richardson will probably exceed that number, but I’m not all that hopeful, at least for his rookie year, especially on an offense that figures to be stagnant with so many rookies and 2nd year players playing big roles (6 of 11 offensive starters are in their 1st or 2nd year and that doesn’t include Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron, who could be starters eventually and Travis Benjamin, who will start the season as their slot receiver). For this week, he’s a borderline starter in fantasy leagues, especially since Philadelphia has the potential offensively to make Cleveland have to abandon the run early.

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Steelers’ rule James Harrison, Rashard Mendenhall out for week 1

stevenlourie News, Steelers

The Steelers will attempt to get revenge on the Broncos’ for last year’s playoff defeat this week. While a lot of the focus will be on Peyton Manning as he attempts to return from injury, the Steelers have some injuries of their own. Right guard David DeCastro could be out for the season with a torn MCL. Running back Isaac Redman is expected to be limited, possibly all year, by groin, hip, and ankle injuries. Safety Ryan Clark will miss this game, as he does all games in Denver, because of a genetic disorder that makes it unsafe for him to do extreme physical activities in high altitude (he had to have his spleen and gall bladder removed following a game in Denver several years ago and hasn’t played there since).

Along with Clark, two other players will miss this game. Rashard Mendenhall was surprisingly activated off the active/PUP list a couple of weeks ago, even though everyone, even GM Kevin Colbert, believed he’d begin the season on that list and miss the first 6 weeks. Though he practiced in limited bits this week, he won’t play this week and still might not play until after their week 4 bye, which was the team’s prognosis after activating him. This week, Redman will start, but, even though he has just 22 career carries, Jonathan Dwyer, now finally in shape, might be their best option.

James Harrison, meanwhile, was expected to play this week after having knee surgery last month, but apparently had a setback so he won’t go. Jason Worilds will start in his absence. Worilds did his best Harrison impression, at least as a pass rusher, with 3 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 20 quarterback pressures on 204 pass rush snaps last year with Harrison missing some time, a very impressive rate of 14.7%.

The Steelers have had a top-3 scoring defense 6 times since 2004 an had the league’s #1 scoring defense last year despite just 15 turnovers and a bunch of injuries. They should have better health defensively this season (although this isn’t a great start) and they should have more turnovers. Since 2002, 38 teams have had 20 or fewer takeaways in a season. Those teams had, on average, 7.53 more takeaways and won 1.41 more games the following season. They’ll still prove to be a very tough test for Peyton Manning in his first start back from injury. They won’t let him ease back into regular season action.

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Panthers expect Jonathan Stewart to be a game time decision

stevenlourie News, Panthers

Jonathan Stewart sprained his ankle in the Panthers’ final preseason game over a week ago, but even though it wasn’t a high ankle sprain, Stewart still did not practice all week and will be a game time decision for their game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This is especially frustrating for Stewart’s fantasy owners, because it’s a 4 o’clock start instead of a 1 o’clock start, meaning your options will be much more limited if you put him in your lineup and he’s ruled out before the game.

Stewart normally plays through minor injuries (as injury prone as his reputation would make him seem, he’s missed just 2 of 64 career games) and that’s why he’s a game time decision without practicing. However, the Panthers have plenty of other running backs and can definitely get away with starting DeAngelo Williams, with “fullback” Mike Tolbert as his primary backup this week, so they may shut Stewart down and try to preserve him for the rest of the season.

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Lions to be without Louis Delmas, Chris Houston against Rams

stevenlourie Lions, News

The Lions had one of the worst defenses in the league last year, allowing 24.2 points per game, good for 23rd in the NFL. Their awful passing defense was a big part of that and things aren’t going to be much better this season, especially not week 1. Having lost starter Eric Wright to the Buccaneers in free agency alright this offseason and cutting his replacement Aaron Berry for off the field issues, the Lions will now be without Louis Delmas and Chris Houston against the Rams this week, their only two remaining competent starters.

This leaves Jacob Lacey, Bill Bentley, John Wendling, and Erik Coleman starting in the secondary for the Lions, with Drayton Florence operating as the nickel back. Lacey struggled as a starter in Indianapolis last year. Bentley is a 3rd round rookie. John Wendling is a career journeyman backup and Coleman is a veteran who has been a backup in Atlanta over the last few seasons. Florence, meanwhile, was cut twice this offseason, first by the Bills and then by the Broncos, who made him a final cut. He’s only been with the Lions about a week.

The Lions have a ferocious pass rush, but even that won’t make this secondary look very good. Sam Bradford might not be the best quarterback, but this is about as easy of a matchup as he’ll get and with Steven Jackson by his side, the Rams should be able to run effectively on a Lions’ defense that ranked 30th on the ground last year. That will help the Rams move the football and take some off the pressure off an underrated offensive line in pass protection. The Lions, meanwhile, will have their explosive offense limited by the Rams equally good defensive line, against a decent Lions’ offensive line, and the Rams’ significantly superior secondary.  There’s a chance the Rams could pull out this victory.

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Vikings expect Adrian Peterson to play, but will limit his carries

stevenlourie News, Vikings

The Vikings and the Jaguars have two of the best running backs in the NFL, Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew. However, when those two teams meet in Minnesota this week, neither of those two aforementioned backs figure to have much of an impact. Maurice Jones-Drew will be limited to 3rd down work about a week after returning from his 38 day holdout, while Adrian Peterson is about 9 months removed from a torn ACL. The Vikings expect him to play, but he’ll be limited to a backup role behind capable back Toby Gerhart until he gets his legs back under him.

Adrian Peterson’s speedy recovery from such a severe injury is impressive, but maybe not even surprising from someone like Peterson and it’s not unprecedented either. Wes Welker returned for week 1 from a similar injury for the 2010 season after just 8 months. However, it’s worth noting that Welker was not his normal self that year. He caught just 86 passes for 848 yards, both his lowest totals in his 5 year career with the New England Patriots. It’s unrealistic to expect Peterson to be his normal self until at least the 2nd half of the season (Welker’s 2nd half stats were much better as he caught 42 passes for 493 yards), if at all this season.

For that reason and others, it’s a bit head scratching why the Vikings are bringing him back so soon. Toby Gerhart is a capable runner who should be able to carry the load until Peterson is fully healthy and truly ready to play and the Vikings probably aren’t going to be competitive this year either way. This is a team built for the future and Peterson, still only 27, is expected to be a big part of it. They can’t afford to risk him reinjuring himself. Besides, he still has about 28 million guaranteed on his contract after the season as his massive extension just kicked in. They want to make sure they get the most out of that money.

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Jaguars will limit Maurice Jones-Drew to 3rd down work this week

stevenlourie Jaguars, News

Maurice Jones-Drew has returned from his holdout and will suit up for the Jaguars this week, but anyone expecting him to be worth a fantasy start is going to be severely disappointed. According to Head Coach Mike Mularkey, Rashad Jennings, who was named the week 1 starter before MJD returned, will handle most of the early down work, limiting Maurice Jones-Drew to 3rd down work.

When asked about whether Jennings would carry the load or not, Mularkey said, “That’s kind of the way the system works, yes,” referring to having the starter do most of the early down work and having his primary backup handle 3rd downs. It’s how he handled things in Pittsburgh and Atlanta and it’s how he’ll handle things in Jacksonville. Once MJD regains his starting job, he’ll be the beneficiary of the system and handle most of the early down work, but until then, he’ll see very few carries and it’ll limit his fantasy potential severely against a Minnesota run defense that ranked 6th in the league last year.

This is probably the smart move because Jennings showed himself to be a solid back during the preseason and MJD’s situation has so many similarities to Chris Johnson’s last year, down to when they reported, the situation with new coaching staffs coming in, and their usage in the past 3 years, that I would be skeptical about his ability to carry the load early in the season. Chris Johnson averaged 3.0 YPC last season in the first 8 games, before showing his old form and averaging 4.8 YPC in the final 8.

Nonetheless, the Jaguars will be hurt offensively be the lack of the 2011 form of MJD early in the season. Jennings is a nice back and MJD at less than 100% is not too bad, but MJD had 47.7% of the team’s yards from scrimmage last season, most by any non-quarterback since OJ Simpson in 1974. Any improvements Blaine Gabbert and the passing game made this offseason should be nullified by their relative “struggles” on the ground.

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Chiefs’ Derrick Johnson, Brandon Flowers, Jovan Belcher all expected to be game time decisions

stevenlourie Chiefs, News

Already missing top pass rusher Tamba Hali with suspension, the Chiefs have 3 other defensive starters who will be game time decisions this week against the Falcons. Hali’s loss is probably going to be the biggest as he’s been their only consistent pass rusher over the past 3 years (though 2nd year player Justin Houston looked great down the stretch in 7 starts last year). However, his loss won’t be the only significant one.

Flowers been a top-8 cornerback on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 3 seasons, something only Champ Bailey and Darrelle Revis can also say. Last year was his worst year as he ranked 8th and though he did play really well, he also surrendered some big plays. He allowed 46 completions on 86 attempts (53.5%) for 667 yards (7.8 YPA), 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 8 passes and committing 5 penalties. Johnson, meanwhile, was ProFootballFocus’ 4th rated middle linebacker last year and Jovan Belcher is a talented two-down run stuffer at middle linebacker.

All of these injuries and potential injuries will make it very hard for the Chiefs to win this week. Their game plan is based on playing good defense, running the ball well, and making live easy for limited quarterback Matt Cassel. Missing so many key guys, it’ll be tough for them to play good defense against an Atlanta offense that looked very good in the preseason, backing up what many people felt before the preseason, that Matt Ryan and company were about to make the leap with Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez. That’s going to make it tough for the Chiefs to follow their conservative game plan and will force Matt Cassel to have to do more than they would like.

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Bengals expect to be without Carlos Dunlap, Jason Allen, Dre Kirkpatrick and Bernard Scott

stevenlourie Bengals, News

The regular season has not yet begun, but the injuries have started piling up for the Bengals. After putting two starters on the offensive line on IR before the season, Travelle Wharton and Kyle Cook (though the latter can be reactivated later this season), the Bengals are expected to be without 4 key contributors with injury for their week 1 battle with the Baltimore Ravens as Carlos Dunlap, Jason Allen, Dre Kirkpatrick, and Bernard Scott are all expected to miss.

Kirkpatrick’s and Allen’s absence will force Nate Clements, in his age 33 season, to start opposite Leon Hall. Hall, meanwhile, probably won’t be 100% just 10 months after tearing his Achilles. Including playoffs, they allowed 23.8 points per game in their final 9 games without Hall, as opposed to 17.5 points per game in their first 8 games with Hall last season. Obviously having him 100% would be a huge boost for them, but I can’t see him being 100%, at least not this week.

Dunlap’s absence hurts because the Bengals already lost Frostee Rucker and Jonathan Fanene as free agents this offseason. They love rotation on the defensive line and those two were key parts of that rotation. They’ll be replaced by the mediocre Jamaal Anderson and Devon Still, a 2nd round rookie playing out of position. With Dunlap miss this game, that means that Anderson will have to will the top reserve behind Michael Johnson and Robert Geathers, two decent, but unspectacular players.

Dunlap was spectacular last year. In fact, was one of the best pass rushers in the league last year. Dunlap managed 5 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback pressures, on 302 pass rush snaps, a pass rush rate of 15.6%.  Given their troubles in the secondary, the Bengals have to get pass rush to have any chance of stopping the Ravens’ passing attack, but I don’t think that will happen.

Meanwhile, Bernard Scott’s absence means that BenJarvus Green-Ellis will have the carry the load against Baltimore’s stout run defense. BJGE is good at running through holes and not fumbling, but he averaged just 3.7 YPC last year and ranked just 61st out of 67 eligible backs in yards after contact per carry with 2.0. That was in New England, with Tom Brady making life easy for the running backs. Andy Dalton is not Tom Brady, so BJGE will find very little running room, especially with the Bengals missing two starting interior offensive lineman against a great run defense like the Bengals’. The Bengals will have a lot of trouble running the ball this week.

All of these injuries definitely hurt for a Bengals team that didn’t beat a single playoff team last year (0-8, including playoffs). Andy Dalton regressed as last season went on and especially struggled against playoff teams and that regression appeared to continue during the preseason. Against a Baltimore team that beat them twice last year, en route to 12 victories, they’re going to have a tough time. The Ravens also were 9-0 last year at home in Baltimore, where this game is played, including playoffs.

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Suspensions in Saints’ bounty scandal overturned

stevenlourie News, Saints

In possibly the most shocking story of the offseason, with two days to go before their season opener against the Redskins, the Saints found out yesterday that the players suspended in their bounty scandal would be reinstated as the suspensions were overturned by an appeals court. The coaches and front office members who were originally suspended will still be suspended, but the appeals court determined that the NFL did not have enough evidence to suspend the players, in what has to be one of the biggest challenges to his authority in Roger Goodell’s tenure as NFL Commissioner. Goodell and the rest of the NFL front office will now have to come up with sufficient evidence to suspend the players allegedly involved, if they chose to continue to try to discipline those players they believe are guilty of wrongdoing.

While this is obviously a huge moral victory for the players, especially Jonathan Vilma, the most vocal protestor of the suspensions and a player who was set to miss the entire season with suspension, the timing is still bittersweet. Vilma has been away from the team for most of the offseason with a new defensive coaching staff coming in, has been replaced by free agents David Hawthorne and Curtis Lofton, and has had 3 knee surgeries since November, so he’s not only in no position to make any kind of early season impact, but he’s no longer really needed by the team.

The Saints placed Vilma, a declining 30 year old player, on the reserve/PUP list, which means he’ll have to sit out at least the first 6 games of the season. He’ll get to collect game checks, which he wouldn’t have ordinarily been able to, but his chances of making any positive impact for the Saints this season is pretty limited. ProFootballFocus’ 51st ranked middle linebacker out of 53 in 2011, Vilma is owed 5.9 million next season and, after taking a pay cut just to stay on the roster this season, this year might be his last in a Saints uniform, if he even plays at all. Still with a stigma attached to his name, whether the allegations are true or not, it’ll be interesting to see if he would get any interest on the open market as a 31 year old next offseason.

As for Will Smith, he was only going to be suspended for 4 games, so he’s been practicing with the team and does have a chance to suit up for the Saints this weekend. Smith wasn’t great last season, with 7 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 34 quarterback pressures on 630 pass rush snaps, including playoffs, a respectable, but not great 9.2% pass rush rate, but this team was the league’s worst rated pass rushing team last season in terms of pass rush productivity (sacks + .75 hits + .75 pressures/total pass rush snaps). They may have had 33 sacks, not a terrible number, but they blitzed more than any team in the league to do even that. With Smith, Junior Galette, a talented situational pass rusher last season, 2nd year player Cameron Jordan, and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who is great with pass rushers, the Saints may have enough to take advantage of a Redskins offensive line that looked terrible in the preseason and ranked 28th in pass blocking efficiency last season.

Anthony Hargrove, another suspended player, is currently not on a roster after being cut by the Packers last month, while Scott Fujita is the only formerly suspended player currently on a roster other than the Saints’. Fujita was set to miss the first 3 games of the season and has not practiced all week, but the Browns may start him out of desperation. Missing starter Chris Gocong and top reserve James-Michael Johnson, the Browns were originally going to start undrafted rookie LJ Fort and career backup and special teamer Kaluka Maiava at 2 of their 3 linebacker spot this week, which would have put them at a major disadvantage against a tough matchup in the Eagles.

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Redskins won’t name starting running back

stevenlourie Commanders, News

Redskins’ Head Coach Mike Shanahan loves a murky running back situation. He loves his opponents not to know what kind of back they’ll have to game plan against and he loves to be able to switch running backs depending on the matchup. It’s a smart football philosophy, but it creates a wasteland in fantasy leagues. Alfred Morris, Evan Royster, and Roy Helu all will probably start at some point this season and not just that, any of those 3 could start this week. I’d also be willing to be bet that a running back not currently on the Redskins’ roster (Steve Slaton? Tim Hightower? Ryan Torain?) will get a start for the team this season.

Shanahan has one of his murkiest running back situations ever this season. Not only do we not know who the starter will be, as Shanahan refused to name one publicly, preferring to “keep them guessing,” the players themselves don’t seem to know either. Evan Royster, one of the candidates, says “I think they’re going to keep us pretty much in the dark until probably the day before the game.” That may be a smoke screen, but former Redskin Chris Cooley, who has no reason to lie on behalf of the organization that cut him last month, says that he didn’t know who the starter would be last season on a weekly basis.

Cooley recounts a story to CBS Washington about last season saying “I walked up to Torain in the locker room and said, ‘Dude, you’re starting on my fantasy team this week. And I’m hoping for a big week. I’m playing my wife,’ and he’s like, ‘Oh, cool man. Yeah, I’ll see what I can do.” Roy Helu started and totaled 141 yards. “I’m in the locker room and I don’t know who’s starting,” Cooley continued. “So, it’s kind of a mix up and I’m not exactly sure what we’re doing or who’s going in.”

The signs would point to Alfred Morris getting the start. The Washington Post believes he’s the “probable” starter according to “several people with knowledge of the situation.” Morris got the start in the 3rd week of the preseason and those are normally the week 1 starters barring injury. He impressed, rushing for 107 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries. Morris also did not play the following week, when Shanahan rested his starters. Both Royster and Helu did play.

Though Morris is technically listed as the 3rd string back behind Royster and Helu, it’s really anyone’s job and Morris’ performance in the 3rd preseason game would suggest he’s the “hot hand,” and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan said they’d be going with that approach this season. It’s definitely not ideal to be starting any of these backs in fantasy this week as two of them won’t see much work, but if you have to start one, Morris seems like the guy. Whoever starts has a nice matchup against a New Orleans run defense that ranked 29th last season and Robert Griffin’s running ability will open things up for the starting running back on the ground, much in the way Michael Vick does for LeSean McCoy, Vince Young once did for Chris Johnson, and Tim Tebow once did for Willis McGahee. Whoever starts is a RB2/Flex, but it’s risky.

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