The Ravens defense was destroyed by injuries this year and as a result more has fallen on the offense than ever before. They’ve responded well. Joe Flacco statistically doesn’t seem to be having a year any different than any of his other seasons, but he’s led the Ravens to a career high 24.8 points per game despite getting average seasons from Ray Rice and the rest of his supporting cast (thanks to a career high red zone touchdown percentage).

Still, that’s not enough for this team to go deep into the playoffs. They were deserving AFC North champions more because of their offense than their defense, but they are exactly as good as their 10-6 record suggests. They started the year 9-2, but they weren’t as good as that record suggested. 6 of those wins came by 7 or fewer points, including 5 by 3 or fewer points. They proved that by finishing 1-4 in their final 5 games and I think their record has regressed to show exactly the type of team this is, good, but not great and injuries on defense are a big part of that.

They get their biggest name injured player back for the playoffs, Ray Lewis. That will help them, but not as much as they need. Their best defensive player, Lardarius Webb, has missed most of the season with a torn ACL, while Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed, and Haloti Ngata have all dealt with injuries of their own and have not played at their normal levels. Lewis, meanwhile, showed major signs of slowing down to age 37 before getting tearing his biceps and I can’t imagine coming back this quickly from a major injury like that will help him get things turned back around. His best days are behind him and his biggest value to this team is as a leader and his intangibles (which can’t be overlooked, but still).

One other thing that can’t be overlooked for the Ravens, if they beat an overrated Colts team in the 1st round of the playoffs (I think they will), they’ll have to win their next two on the road to advance to the Super Bowl, unless Cincinnati somehow sneaks through. I don’t doubt that the Ravens can hand the Colts their 5th double digit road loss of the season, but winning in Denver or New England is a different story.

Joe Flacco has always been noticeably better at home than on the road, but this year he’s taken it to another level. At home, he completes 62.2% of his passes for an average of 8.4 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while on the road, he completes 56.9% of his passes for an average of 5.9 YPA, 7 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. At home, his quarterback rating (99.0) compares to Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. On the road (74.9), it compares to Ryan Tannehill’s and Jake Locker’s.

Obviously, I think the Ravens would prefer to face the Broncos than the Patriots in the divisional round right now, as they beat the Patriots earlier this season and the Broncos blew them out at home. However, that win over the Patriots came in Baltimore and when they were still healthy. I don’t think they could win in either Denver or New England.

Projected fate: Lose to Denver in divisional round

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