For analysis on Indianapolis click here
For analysis on Baltimore click here

The public is all over the dog on this one and it’s not just the public. I can’t tell you how many media people I’ve seen make the Colts their upset pick. If there’s one thing I’ve learned, whenever everyone is predicting the same upset, it rarely upsets and it’s always good to bet on a slighted favorite. The Colts are overrated as they have just 3 wins against .500 or better teams and 2 total wins by more than a touchdown.

They’re even worse on the road where they are 4-4, including 4 double digit losses and 3 by 20 or more. I think they get their 5th double digit loss here in Baltimore against a very good Ravens team at home. They’re just 2 losses removed from a 16 game home winning streak. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play because, of those 16 wins, 9 have come by a touchdown or less. I really like having to only lay 7 with the Ravens rather than the 9 I would have earlier in the week. All the action on Indianapolis has really brought the line down. It’s at 6.5 in some places.

Baltimore Ravens 31 Indianapolis Colts 17