Month: January 2013

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers: Super Bowl Preview

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 49ers, Ravens, Super Bowl XLVII Pick

Colin Kaepernick vs. Joe Flacco. That’s our Super Bowl quarterback matchup. In the era of the quarterback, that seems inconceivable. A guy with 9 career starts and…well Joe Flacco. In the last 20 years, there’s been one quarterback to win a Super Bowl without first making a Pro-Bowl and that was Eli Manning (version one), who made it the very next year. Even “game managers” like Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson first made a Pro-Bowl. Neither ever really posted eye popping numbers, but no one really did back then. Pro-Bowl voting is obviously flawed, but the general public usually does a good job of picking the correct quarterbacks to go to Hawaii, considering how prominent the position and its stats are.

However, this year, we will have a 2nd quarterback win the Super Bowl without making a Pro-Bowl as neither Joe Flacco nor Colin Kaepernick has ever been elected to the Pro-Bowl and I don’t think either have ever deserved it. Kaepernick is playing great now, but he’s not even in his first full year as a starter, and while Flacco has generally been solid, but he’s easily overshadowed by many other quarterbacks in his 5 years in the league. Let’s take a look at why that happened and what each team winning the Super Bowl would, for lack of a better word, “mean” for historical purposes.

San Francisco 49ers

Of the two teams making the Super Bowl, this is obviously the least surprising. The 49ers earned a 1st round bye for the 2nd year in a row and were favored in each of their two playoff games up to this point, including by 4.5 on the road in Atlanta. I had the 49ers as a possible exception to the Pro-Bowl/Super Bowl “rule” heading into the playoffs and I’m not surprised at all they made it this far.

There are two reasons for that. One, while Kaepernick has never made a Pro-Bowl and never deserved to make a Pro-Bowl, the reasons for that aren’t lack of production and elite quarterback play. It’s merely how long he’s been around. Kaepernick took over for the 49ers at quarterback more than halfway into the season, starting his first game week 11, and while he’s played at a Pro-Bowl level ever since, it has only been 9 games, including just 7 regular season games. That doesn’t earn players a trip to the Pro-Bowl, no matter how you play in those 7 games.

The 2nd reason is just how good this supporting cast is. They led the NFL in All-Pros and Pro-Bowlers and there is not a single weakness on this roster. They run the football among the best in the league, with Frank Gore leading the way, Colin Kaepernick scrambling or rolling out when applicable, and LaMichael James mixed in here and there.

They have by far the best run blocking offensive line in football and they hold their own in pass protection as well. While it’s true that they’ve allowed 41 sacks this year, 9th in the NFL, that’s more on Jim Harbaugh’s instance that quarterbacks wrap up and take the sack when they know they’ve lost, instead of trying to force it out.

In terms of pass block efficiency, which also takes into account hits and hurries, the 49ers rank a middle of the pack 17th. It’s just that Alex Smith was “worst” in the NFL, taking a sack on 33.3% of pressured drop backs. Kaepernick is much better in that regard because of his mobility, however, and since he took over, he’s taken just 18 sacks in 9 games.

Along with their offensive line and running game, they have two talented receivers in Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis. Davis was invisible on the stat sheet up until last week, but that was just because Kaepernick was throwing so often to Crabtree, who was playing the best football of his career. They don’t pass the ball enough for both receivers to put up huge numbers. Even though he wasn’t appearing much on the stat sheet, Davis is still among the best blocking tight ends in the NFL.

Defensively, you know the story. They’ve had the league’s #2 scoring defense in each of the last 2 seasons, though they did allow 3 more points per game in doing so this year than last year. Their front 7 is probably the best in football. All 4 of their linebackers are amongst the best in football at their respective positions, including Ahmad Brooks, who doesn’t post eye popping sack numbers, but is among the most consistent in the NFL at getting pressure and is also arguably one of the best run stuffing linebackers in the NFL. And then, of course, there’s Justin Smith.

If there’s one flaw on this defense, it’s that you can throw on them. Their secondary played well this season, ranking 2nd in the league in YPA allowed, but we’ve seen several elite quarterbacks throw on them before and we’ve also seen some of the not quite elite guys throw on them as well lately. They haven’t been getting quite the kind of pressure they normally get on the quarterback with Justin Smith not playing 100%.

Aldon Smith has kind of faded away with Justin not commanding as many double teams in front of him and if you get time, you can throw on this secondary. It just hasn’t been an issue yet because of how well Kaepernick is playing, but they have allowed 24.8 points per game over their past 5, coinciding with Smith’s injury, not including a Kaepernick pick 6 and a special teams touchdown allowed to Seattle. They’ve played a tough batch of quarterbacks in those 5 games, including Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Ryan, but Joe Flacco is certainly in that group somewhere. Still, this is the best supporting cast in football and that’s one of the biggest reasons why they are here, despite a lack of a “traditional” Pro-Bowl quarterback.

Baltimore Ravens

While the 49ers being here isn’t surprising in the least, this is about the exact opposite. This was not a good regular season team. That’s just a fact. They went 10-6, which was tied for the worst record among playoff teams, and they easily could have been 8-8 if Ben Roethlisberger (or even Byron Leftwich) hadn’t gotten hurt and Ray Rice hadn’t converted 4th and 29.

They won a ridiculous 5 games by a field goal or less, now up to 6 after an overtime victory over the Broncos, and they outgained opponents by 20 yards in the regular season. They lost to Charlie Batch at home and fired their offensive coordinator in the same 2 week span. I don’t know this for a fact, but I’m willing to bet that no team has ever made the Super Bowl after doing that, at least until now.

The NFL is no stranger to seeing less than stellar regular season teams go all the way, as the 2007 Giants, 2010 Packers, and 2011 Giants have all recently won Super Bowls with similar or worse records to the 2012 Ravens. However, when those teams have done it, we’ve always been able to look back at how they ended their regular season and say “that’s why they won, they had momentum.”

Unlike those 3 teams, who all had to fight to get into the playoffs and peaked at the right time because of it, the Ravens started this season 9-2, and a fraudulent 9-2 at that, doing it with smoke and mirrors and pulling out several crazy close victories. They appeared to peak early and proof right everyone who called that 9-2 record a fraud, losing 4 of their next 5 games, including two by exactly 3 points after starting 5-0 in games decided by 3 or less.

They weren’t hot heading into the post-season. They were the exact opposite. They tripped backwards into the playoffs. I guess you can point to a 33-14 week 16 victory over the Giants as a “sign of things to come,” but it was reasonable to believe that any momentum they had coming out of that game was lost when they rested starters the following week, in an eventual loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.

All of this is fact. They weren’t a good regular season team. So what happened? Well, I think the takeaway from this whole thing is that sometimes less than stellar regular season teams get into the playoffs and it’s a completely new season. They started out with a home win over the overrated Colts, but after back-to-back road wins in Denver and New England as underdog of more than a touchdown, they’re clearly a much improved team.

Ray Lewis’ return obviously has a lot to do with that. Lewis himself isn’t even playing that well. Sure, he leads the post-season with 44 tackles in 3 games, which sounds like he’s playing well, but when you consider that just 9 of those tackles have gone for a “stop,” it’s not so impressive (a stop is defined as a tackle within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage on 1st down, 6 yards on 2nd down, and the full distance on 3rd or 4th). He’s also had significant issues in coverage, allowing 15 catches on 19 attempts for 178 yards.

However, it’s Lewis’ intangible effect. He’s the signal caller and the emotional leader. That’s why this defense is playing so well. 12th in the NFL in opponents’ scoring in the regular season, the Ravens have allowed 43 points (excluding 2 special teams touchdowns) in 3 games, despite facing Andrew Luck, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning and playing a double overtime game. Their forcing turnovers and tightening up in the red zone and they just made Tom Brady look as confused on a football field as I’ve seen him in years. Their defense is playing better than the 49ers’ right now.

But it hasn’t just been a defensive effort. They wouldn’t have gotten this far if it was. They’ve had good defenses before, but they still lost twice in the AFC Championship from 2008-2011. The limiting factor in those years was Joe Flacco. Despite going 5-4 in the post-season in his first 4 seasons in the league, breaking several NFL records, Joe Flacco never really had played well. It was always the defense. Coming into this post-season, Flacco had completed 134 of 247 (54.2%) for 1532 yards (6.2 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions in his post-season career and had just 2 games of 200+ yards passing. He has 3 already this year and has completed 51 of 93 (54.8%) for 853 yards (9.2 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and not a single interception.

Already I mentioned the thing about Pro-Bowls and Super Bowls. Joe Flacco has never made a Pro-Bowl and he has never deserved to make a Pro-Bowl, but none of that matters because right now he is playing like a Pro-Bowl quarterback. Lots of credit should be given to Joe Flacco, but lots of credit also has to be given to new offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell, who is calling plays at the NFL level for the first time in his life, and credit has to be given to the Ravens for making the switch at offensive coordinator and canning Cam Cameron. That might have been the turning point of their season.

While the 49ers made a ballsy move to bench Alex Smith, the Ravens did a similar thing at offensive coordinator and like the Smith/Kaepernick switch, it’s a big part of the reason why they’re here. We have a Super Bowl matchup between a team that has benched their starting quarterback and a team that has fired their offensive coordinator this season. Normally those are white flags. These two teams are here because of those moves.

If they were playing like they were 4 weeks ago, the Ravens wouldn’t have a chance against the 49ers on a neutral field. However, the Ravens have become a very complete team and dangerous team in the post-season and, for that reason, they will be able to compete with the 49ers, who are the NFL’s most complete team in general. I’ll have an actual pick closer to the game.

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Seattle Seahawks 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Seahawks

When the Seahawks’ took Russell Wilson in the 3rd round, it wasn’t really criticized. That seemed to be a fitting range for him. However, then it was reported that GM John Schneider compared him to Drew Brees and “had to have him” because he felt he was one of the top-3 players he scouted in 2011, which sounded like hyperbole and maybe a little bit crazy. The Seahawks then made him their week 1 starter in pre-season, as he beat out expensive free agent signee Matt Flynn, and 8 games into the season, it was starting to look like possibly a mistake.

The Seahawks were only 4-4 despite a strong defense and Wilson had just 10 touchdowns to 8 interceptions (and one of those touchdowns was really an interception). However, Wilson’s play over the next 10 games proved Schneider right and then some. It didn’t look like hyperbole any longer that this kid was Brees-esque and one of the top-3 players in the draft. He threw 19 touchdowns to 3 interceptions the rest of the way, winning 8 of 10, and even though the Seahawks came up short in Atlanta, they have plenty of reason to be hopeful for the future.

Wilson is clearly their franchise quarterback and while he wasn’t the franchise savior that Robert Griffin was, Wilson is probably the most likely of the 2012 draft quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl in the next few years because he’s supported by a fantastic running game and what was the league’s #1 defense in 2012. This team won 7 games in 2011 despite 14 games of Tarvaris Jackson and 2 games of Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback. They just needed a quarterback and now they found one. Given their amazing home field advantage, if they can ever get a top seed, they could be very dangerous in the post-season.

Offensive Tackle

Russell Wilson’s mobility made this offensive line look better than it was, but they have some obvious holes. Breno Giacomini struggled on the right side at tackle. James Carpenter was supposed to play there, but the injury prone former 1st round pick was moved to guard. They could use an upgrade over Giacomini.

Guard

Carpenter may have moved to guard, but that doesn’t mean he played well. None of their guards really did. John Moffitt, a 3rd round pick from that same draft, 2011, Paul McQuistan, a veteran journeyman, and JR Sweezy all struggled there. Sweezy was the worst and, considering he was a 7th round pick rookie converting from the defensive line, that makes sense. Schneider and Pete Carroll have made a lot of smart decisions, but I have to make fun of them for that one. Sweezy said he hadn’t played offensive line since middle school. How did they decide to convert him to offensive line? Did they watch his middle school tape?

Defensive Tackle

Jason Jones and Alan Branch are both free agents. The Seahawks mentioned adding some extra pass rush this off-season. Defensive tackle is where they really need it. Jones is a solid pass rusher, but he’s only a situational player and that’s it and of course he’s a free agent anyway. Branch is a good run player, but doesn’t get much pass rush.

Wide Receiver

The Seahawks could use some receiving help. Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate are talented young receivers and Sidney Rice is good when healthy, but that’s not always the case.

Defensive End

Speaking of not healthy, Chris Clemons tore his ACL and will be in a race to play week 1. Meanwhile, Red Bryant struggled mightily through injuries this season. Bruce Irvin was their first round pick last year, but I still have concerns about his run play and his ability to be a starter. He was terrible in his only start against Atlanta after Clemons got hurt. They said they want to add more pass rush. Here could be a place to do it.

Outside Linebacker

If they don’t re-sign LeRoy Hill, they will need a new 3rd linebacker, though I suppose they could give Malcolm Smith the job. The 2011 7th round pick impressed in limited action this year.

Kicker

Steven Hauschka is a free agent who will need to either be re-signed or replaced.

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Indianapolis Colts 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Colts

The Colts did an amazing job going from 2 wins in 2011 to 11 in 2012, the 2nd biggest turnaround in NFL history. Even more impressive, they did it in the face of, as Chuck Pagano would call it, “circumstances,” as Head Coach Pagano had to leave 3 games into the season after being diagnosed with leukemia. “ChuckStrong” became a rallying cry for this team, which went 9-3 in their next 12 games under interim Head Coach Bruce Arians, giving Pagano back a 10-5 team when he returned late in December after being declared cancer free. They closed out the season with an emotional home win over division rival Houston.

However, the Colts didn’t really play as well as their 11-5 record would have suggested. They were the worst rated DVOA team (25th) to ever win 11 games. They won just 3 games against .500 or better teams and only two games by more than a touchdown. They had 4 losses by double digits and finished in the bottom half of the NFL in points per game and points allowed per game, ranking 18th and 21st respectively. Once they got to the playoffs, it was clear they couldn’t hang with the big boys in a 24-9 loss to the Baltimore Ravens.

If the Colts were to play as well next year as they played this year, they’d probably win around 7 games. Their schedule will get tougher and while their 9-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less is impressive, that tends to even out to .500 in the long run. Besides, when you realize that most of those close wins came against the likes of Tennessee, Kansas City, Detroit, and Buffalo, it’s not so impressive.

The good news for the Colts is that they are young and clearly well managed so there’s no reason to believe they can’t play better next season than they did this year. That may not reflect itself in the win/loss record and I don’t know if I’ll pick them to make the playoffs again next year, but they have a bright future. This off-season will be all about adding more talent to this roster and building around Andrew Luck.

Guard

The Colts’ biggest weakness was exposed in their post-season loss to the Ravens. The Colts’ offensive line was terrible all year and the Ravens were able to pressure Luck on seemingly every drop back, making it impossible for him to get anything done downfield. They ranked dead last overall in pass block efficiency. Luck was actually one of the best in the league at avoiding sacks, only taking a sack on 14.9% of pressured drop backs, but they need to get him some help at upfront.

The biggest problem was at guard. They struggled for consistency there all year as four different guys, Mike McGlynn, Jeff Linkenbach, Joe Reitz, and Seth Olsen, saw significant action there. Every single one of those four was awful, which isn’t a surprise considering none of them are proven starters. They really need help at this spot.

Cornerback

The Colts’ trade for Vontae Davis didn’t work out, one of the only missteps for this new regime last off-season. He couldn’t stay healthy and they ranked 23rd against the pass this year. He’ll be a free agent next off-season. Cassius Vaughn, Jerraud Powers, and Darius Butler played significant snaps, as well, this season, but only Butler played well and he’s a free agent this off-season. Powers is also a free agent and Vaughn, their worst cornerback, will be a free agent next off-season. Like guard, this is somewhere where they are currently using replacement level talents and need to bring in some blue chip talent.

Nose Tackle

Antonio Johnson really looked out of position playing the 3-4 nose this season. He struggled in all facets of the game and graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 80th ranked defensive tackle out of 85 eligible. There’s a reason the Colts ranked 31st against the run. A free agent this off-season, the Colts should take this opportunity to bring in a true nose tackle, something they were unable to do last off-season, when converting to this new 3-4 scheme.

Safety

They also used replacement level talent here. Antoine Bethea is a former Pro-Bowler and not a replacement level talent, but he struggled this year, as did journeyman Tom Zbikowsi. Joe Legefed looked alright in limited action, so maybe they’ll give him a shot. Bethea will probably get another shot, because they don’t have another choice, but he’ll be a free agent next off-season. They should add another young player in the mix.

Offensive Tackle

Left tackle Anthony Costanzo was their best offensive lineman and right tackle Winston Justice wasn’t as bad as their interior linemen, but after a strong start to the season, the journeyman replacement level talent started to show his true colors. They might be okay with him there another season, but they might not be. They should look to at least bring in competition.

Rush Linebacker

I don’t know if it was injuries, or age (33 in February), or that he was a poor fit in the new 3-4 scheme, but Dwight Freeney really didn’t play well by his standards this year. He’s a free agent this off-season and they can’t really count on him long term and he’d probably be best off somewhere where he could play in the 4-3 scheme he’s been dominant in throughout his career. If he leaves, Jerry Hughes, a former 1st round pick, is an obvious candidate to replace him, but he’s been inconsistent at best in his career. Meanwhile, on the other side of the formation, Robert Mathis is heading into his age 32 season.

3-4 Defensive End

Yeah, I’m going to use that term again, replacement level talent. It’s remarkable that the Colts were able to have this kind of success this season considering the previous regime hadn’t drafted a Pro-Bowler since 2006. They used a bunch of different replacement level talent guys at this position this year and only Drake Nevis, a 2011 3rd round pick, was even decent. Again, they ranked 31st against the run. Cory Redding was a free agent acquisition from Baltimore, where Pagano was once defensive coordinator, but he didn’t play as well as he normally does. His age, 33 this November, probably has something to do with that.

Wide Receiver

TY Hilton and LaVon Brazill were quite the finds in the 3rd and 6th round respectively last year. However, veteran Donnie Avery is a free agent, as is the injury prone Austin Collie, while #1 receiver Reggie Wayne is heading into his age 35 season. He’s coming off a fantastic year, but even the average top-20 receiver (all-time) has his final 1000 yard season at somewhere around age 34.5, which is right where Wayne is right now. His abilities could fall off a cliff at any moment. Another young receiver could be needed.

Center

I don’t know what the cap hit would be like to cut him since they just signed him to a 3-year deal last off-season, but center Samson Satele is not worth the 2.7 million he’s due next season. He was a big part of their poor offensive line play and ranked among the worst centers in the league, 33rd out of 36 eligible on ProFootballFocus. If he’s not back, AQ Shipley, who played well when Satele missed time with injury this year, deserves the first crack at the job, but they’ll need competition. Either way, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them use a late round selection on a center.

Punter

Pat McAfee and his boom stick are free agents this off-season. He’ll need to either be re-signed or replaced.

Punt Returner

TY Hilton returned punts at a high level this season, but they might not keep him in that role long term as he becomes a bigger part of the offense.

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Minnesota Vikings 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Vikings

The Vikings got an amazing season from Adrian Peterson, who came within 9 yards of the single season rushing record despite being less than a year removed from tearing his ACL and MCL. Without that, they would have been screwed. Peterson dragged them into the post-season, but the Vikings were never a legitimate threat to do anything in the post-season because of their quarterback play. Joe Webb played terribly, but I don’t know how much better Christian Ponder would have been, considering he was 80 of 142 for 693 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in 4 outside games this year, all losses.

How big of an impact did Adrian Peterson have? Well, Christian Ponder needed a career best game against the Packers week 17 to get his yards per attempt up over 6 for the season. The Vikings finished averaging 6.1 YPA, 31st in the NFL. How much did they exceed the record of the average team who gains 6 or fewer yards per pass attempt? Try 6 wins (I know the Vikings technically averaged 6.1 YPA, but I don’t really think that extra 1/10 of the yard was what got them the extra 6 wins).

Including this year’s Chiefs, 22 other teams since 2006 have averaged 6 or fewer yards per attempt. 20 of them won 5 or fewer games and none won more than 7. They averaged 3.8 wins per season and 14.6 points per game. The Vikings won 10 (in arguably the toughest division in football) and averaged 23.7 points per game. As talented as Adrian Peterson is, he almost definitely won’t have that kind of season again next year. He’s only come within 700 yards of his 2012 yardage total one other time in his career. Christian Ponder will need to step up if the Vikings are going to have any chance of returning to the playoffs in 2013.

It’s easy to blame Christian Ponder for his lack of production and he does have physical limitations, but he’s got nothing to work with in the passing game. Percy Harvin is oft injured and Kyle Rudolph is incredibly inconsistent. They used the 12th overall pick on him two years ago. They owe themselves a chance to evaluate Ponder in situation he can actually succeed in. Drafting Matt Kalil with the 4th overall pick last year was a start, but they need to continue to add talent around Ponder offensively.

Wide Receiver

Building around Ponder starts in the receiving corps. Things are already pretty desperate there, but if they have to trade Percy Harvin this off-season, they could get even worse. He’s their only reliable receiver. At the very least, they need to add a compliment opposite him, but they may need to replace him outright if they can’t get him signed long term and opt to trade him instead.

Middle Linebacker

Jasper Brinkley is a free agent. He was terrible in his first year as a starter, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 50th ranked middle linebacker out of 53 eligible, particularly struggling in coverage. The Vikings should use this opportunity to find a new starter at the position.

Outside Linebacker

Brinkley isn’t the Vikings’ only free agent starting linebacker. Erin Henderson is also a free agent. He was looking for a long term deal last off-season, after grading out among the best run stuffing linebackers in the NFL in 2011, but had to settle for just a 1 year, 2 million dollar deal from the Vikings because he was only a two-down player.

The Vikings gave him a chance to be a three down linebacker this year, but he got those duties taken away from him early in the season and given to Brinkley. He once again was solid against the run, but he struggled in coverage again, as well. It’s unlikely he’ll get much more than he got last off-season and it might not be from the Vikings at all, as reports have said he may not want to return. I don’t think the Vikings will care too much, but they do need to add two new starting linebackers, including one to serve as an every down linebacker along with the talented Chad Greenway.

Guard

Both Charlie Johnson and Brandon Fusco are under contract next season, but both really struggled this season at guard. On an otherwise great offensive line, Johnson and Fusco ranked 62nd and 73rd respectively on ProFootballFocus, among 81 eligible. They at least need some competition for them.

Defensive Tackle

There’s conflicting reports about Kevin Williams’ option, but it sounds like he is, in fact, under contract for 2 more years. Either way, he’s 33 in August and they could use an upgrade next to him. The rotating trio of LeTroy Guion, Christian Ballard, and Fred Evans is underwhelming.

Safety

Jamarca Sanford played alright at safety this year, after taking over for the terrible Mistral Raymond. However, he’s a free agent. Raymond isn’t, but I doubt the Vikings want to have him as their week 1 starter next year. If Sanford isn’t retained, he’ll have to be replaced.

Cornerback

Antoine Winfield is heading into his age 36 season, so it’s time to look at potential successors. It would make sense for them to take one this year, as cornerbacks take a while to develop. I know they have Chris Cook and Josh Robinson, but you need three cornerbacks in today’s NFL. Besides, Cook will be a free agent next off-season and Robinson was up and down as a 3rd round rookie and considering 3rd round picks only turn into starters about 30% of the time, he’s no sure thing. AJ Jefferson is also in the mix, but he played pretty poorly this year and he’ll be a free agent next off-season as well.

Offensive Tackle

Phil Loadholt was one of three starters who played very well for the Vikings this season on their offensive line. However, he’s a free agent and if he’s not retained, he’ll need to be replaced.

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2012 NFL Award Picks

stevenlourie News

Unlike with several college football awards, I don’t actually get a say in these NFL awards, but I like to make my opinion known on them. These picks are who deserves to win the awards, not who will. None of these awards take into account post-season performance.

MVP: RB Adrian Peterson (Minnesota)

I was meaning to do this before the post-season started. These are regular season awards and I didn’t want anything that happened in the post-season to potentially skew my picks for these awards. I didn’t have time to do it before the post-season, but luckily it didn’t matter. Neither of the two candidates for this award, which was the only one I was really flip-flopping on, won a playoff game this year.

We all know why Peyton Manning is deserving. He took over what was an average team at best to begin with and took them at the #1 seed in the AFC. He was the best quarterback in the regular season this year and this award normally goes to that player and for good reason. This is a quarterback league and you can’t win the Super Bowl without good quarterback play. The Vikings were never a Super Bowl contender because of their quarterback play, in spite of Adrian Peterson.

However, that makes what Peterson did this year even more amazing. Running backs don’t drag teams to the playoffs like Peterson did, at least not any more. A quarterback does what Peyton Manning does every year, but the type of season Adrian Peterson just had is one we might not see for another 10 years. I’d argue he was equally valuable to Manning, at the very least. With even an average running game, the Vikings don’t even sniff the playoffs.

Christian Ponder needed a career best game against the Packers week 17 to get his yards per attempt up over 6 for the season. The Vikings finished, averaging 6.1 YPA, 31st in the NFL. How much did they exceed the record of the average team who gains 6 or fewer yards per pass attempt? Try 6 wins (I know the Vikings technically averaged 6.1 YPA, but I don’t really think that extra 1/10 of the yard was what got them the extra 6 wins). Including this year’s Chiefs, 22 other teams since 2006 have averaged 6 or fewer yards per attempt. 20 of them won 5 or fewer games and none won more than 7. They averaged 3.8 wins per season and 14.6 points per game. The Vikings won 10 (in arguably the toughest division in football) and averaged 23.7 points per game.

Without Peyton Manning, the Broncos aren’t a number #1 seed, but with an average quarterback, they may have still made the playoffs. After all, they played in arguably the worst division in football, a division that they won with Tim Tebow the year before. With an average running back, the Vikings might not have even won 5 games. As long as these two players were even equally valuable, I have no problem giving Peterson the award based on his position. It’s just so hard to be as valuable as Peterson was from his position and when it happens, you almost have to give him this award.

Comeback player of the year: QB Peyton Manning (Denver)

Adrian Peterson gets MVP, but I think Peyton Manning is the clear Comeback Player of the Year. Why? Well, in March, if Peyton Manning had announced his retirement, I don’t think anyone would have been surprised and certainly I don’t think anyone would have blamed him. If Adrian Peterson had retired, I think the reaction would have been “Wow, I didn’t know he was THAT hurt!” Peyton Manning is 36, missed all of last season, got cut and had to find a new team, and had 4 surgeries on an incredibly vital body part. Adrian Peterson can’t say any of those things, so this is Peyton Manning’s award.

Offensive rookie of the year: QB Robert Griffin (Washington)

I’d like to start this by saying that I don’t see Andrew Luck as a legitimate contender for this award. Stats aren’t everything, but sometimes stats are too blatant to ignore. Griffin and Wilson were 3rd and 4th in QB rating, Luck was 26th. He took the Colts from 2 wins to 11 wins, but he did it against an incredibly easy schedule and with almost no convincing wins. He won just 2 games by more than a touchdown and just 3 games against .500 or better teams. A 9-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less is impressive, as were his league leading seven game winning drives, but when you remember most of those came against the likes of Tennessee, Detroit, Kansas City, and Buffalo, it’s not so impressive.

So that leaves us with Robert Griffin and Russell Wilson from arguably the best rookie quarterback class ever. I’m going with Griffin. Russell Wilson was never counted on to be a savior. The Seahawks won 7 games last year with 14 games of a banged up Tarvaris Jackson (7-7) and 2 games of Charlie Whitehurst (0-2) under center. They had the #7 scoring defense in 2011 and the #1 scoring defense in 2012. Wilson, as good as he was, had plenty of help.

Griffin, meanwhile, was the Redskins’ savior. They literally put all of their eggs in one basket with him, trading away three 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick for him, naming him the starting quarterback about 2 days after the draft, and building their entire new innovative offense around him. They asked him to single handed turn around a 5-win team and he did that.

The Redskins’ had the league’s 21st rated defense in 2011 and it was even worse in 2012, despite having much less pressure on them thanks to the offense, as they ranked 22nd. Injuries were to blame as they were without top pass rusher Brian Orakpo for most of the year and also lost starters Brandon Meriweather and Adam Carriker for most of the year as well.

Injuries weren’t limited to defense, as Griffin was playing without expected right tackle Jammal Brown all season, lost talented tight end Fred Davis midseason, and played without #1 receiver Pierre Garcon for most of the year. And he still took them to the playoffs, where they were leading Wilson’s Seahawks 14-0 before he got hurt (it’s not a post-season award, but this is worth mentioning).

Plus, unlike Wilson, Griffin played well all year. Through 8 games, Wilson had 8 touchdowns to 7 interceptions (with one touchdown that should have been an interception) and the Seahawks were 4-4. After a 5 interception in two weeks stretch, in which the Seahawks lost to the Rams and barely beat the Panthers, there were calls for Wilson to be benched. Griffin never played that badly. He never had a multi-interception game, throwing just 5 all year, and even when the Redskins were 3-6 heading into the bye, Griffin still had an 8 to 3 touchdown to interception ratio.

Defensive rookie of the year: CB Casey Hayward (Green Bay)

A lot of people might not know Casey Hayward, but he’ll be a big name someday. He was my top underrated prospect of the 2012 NFL Draft and I can’t remember the last time I was this right about anything. Hayward, a 2nd round pick, was the Packers’ nickel cornerback this year, but that doesn’t mean he didn’t have an important role. Because the Packers are in their sub packages so frequently, Hayward played on 703 of the Packers’ 1118 regular season defensive snaps, around 63%. He also made 7 starts when injuries struck.

Despite not being a full-time starter, only three players (Tarell Brown, Antoine Winfield, Cortland Finnegan) played more pass snaps and didn’t surrender a touchdown and Hayward’s interception total, 6, was double the high of anyone in that group. He also got his hands on 12 more balls, deflecting them, a number that was tied for the most among players who didn’t surrender a touchdown and was tied for 6th overall in the NFL. His 6 interceptions, meanwhile, were 4th in the NFL.

As you can imagine, when a player allows 0 touchdowns and picks off 6 passes, his QB rating against must be pretty low. That was exactly the case with Hayward. His 31.1 QB rating allowed was not only the best in the league among those eligible, but among players ineligible, only Darrelle Revis played more than 29 snaps and allowed a lower QB rating and he only played 93. Only Richard Sherman played more snaps than him and had a QB rating that even rivaled his and his was 10 points higher at 41.1.

It wasn’t just a great touchdown to interception ratio powering that low QB rating. Hayward allowed 33 completions all year, on 74 attempts, a 44.6% completion percentage. He surrendered just 456 yards, 6.2 YPA. He also was not penalized all year and played the run well, as well. He ranked 4th among eligible cornerbacks in run stop % and missed just 3 tackles all season. For all his efforts, he was ProFootballFocus’ 3rd ranked cornerback and deserves to be this year’s Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Defensive player of the year: DE JJ Watt (Houston)

This was a great year for individual defensive performances. Geno Atkins and Von Miller would both deserve this award 9 years out of 10 and Aldon Smith had a lot of support as well. I’d like to start off with Aldon Smith. Aldon Smith was 2nd in the league with 20 sacks and for a while looked on pace to break Michael Strahan’s single season record. However, here’s where the perils of just looking at sack totals comes into play.

Aldon Smith wasn’t even ProFootballFocus’ top rated player at his own position, ranking 3rd, nor was he even the top pass rusher at his own position, where he ranked 2nd behind Clay Matthews. Smith was not an elite player against the run and struggled when asked to drop into coverage. While Smith had 20 sacks, he still ranked 2nd at his position in pass rush efficiency behind Paul Kruger. Pass rush efficiency takes into account quarterback hits and hurries as well as snaps played and provides a more accurate picture of how someone was rushing the passer.

Smith also saw frequently single blocking or at sometimes even saw blocking from just a back. ProFootballFocus takes all of this into account, how he did against back blocking, single blocking, and double blocking, as well as pass rush efficiency, run play and coverage play and they didn’t even think he was the best player at his own position. The reason Smith saw such frequent easy blocking was Justin Smith, a talented defensive lineman who played on the same side as Aldon.

Justin, a defensive player of the year snub a year ago, was the most important player on their defense and the guy they ran their scheme around. There’s a reason that they surrendered 76 points in 6 quarters as soon as he got hurt against New England. That wasn’t all him, but a lot of it was. Since Justin got hurt against New England, Aldon hasn’t recorded a single sack. Justin had a higher rating on ProFootballFocus than Aldon and I agree with that. Aldon Smith isn’t even the best defensive player on his own team, let alone in the NFL.

That leaves us with four players, the aforementioned JJ Watt, Von Miller, and Geno Atkins, as well as Cameron Wake, another underrated player who deserves to be the discussion far more than Smith. All 4 paced their positions on ProFootballFocus by a wide margin. Wake finished with a 53.7 rating, Miller with a 78.5, Atkins with a 79.9, but Watt has to take this. He recorded the first 100+ rating in the history of ProFootballFocus (5 years) with a 101.7.

Among the other three, only Atkins didn’t have a regular season game with a negative rating, but Watt was the only who graded out above 1 in every regular season game (he did graded out -0.1 against the Patriots in the playoffs, but still). In fact, with the exception of one game, he never graded out worse than 4.5 in a single regular season game. 2.0 is a great game. Watt was also listed as a “stud” in my studs/duds in my Power Rankings every week, something no one else came close to doing.

The raw stats are this: Watt led the league with 21 sacks and also had another 25 hits and 30 hurries, giving him a pass rush efficiency rating of 10.8 (sacks X .75 hits X .75 hurries divided by pass rush snaps), which is unheard of for a 3-4 defensive end. He rushed the passer like an edge rusher and he’s not even an edge rusher. That also doesn’t take into account the league leading 15 passes he batted down at the line. No one else had more than 8.

10 edge rushers did have a higher pass rush efficiency rating than that, but again JJ Watt is not an edge rusher. He doesn’t play in space. All of his quarterback pressures (sacks, hits, and hurries) were gotten through pure power through double teams in the trenches, which is why it’s so ridiculous that he was that efficient. 3-4 ends are supposed to stop the run first and foremost and Watt did that as well, leading all 3-4 ends in run stop percentage by over 5% and missing just 2 tackles all year. There wasn’t a better defensive player in the league this year and it’ll be tough for anyone, even Watt, to have this type of season again in the next 5 years.

Coach of the year: Chuck Pagano/Bruce Arians (Indianapolis)

Yeah, the Colts had an easy schedule and didn’t have a lot of convincing wins, but they still improved 9 games and the new coaching staff deserves to be recognized for that. This is a joint award and it’s not a pity award because of Pagano’s leukemia. This duo legitimately deserves this. Arians coached the most games, going 9-3 in 12 games as Head Coach, and how he held this team together effectively and gracefully after Pagano’s diagnosis was amazing. He didn’t just turn this team around 9 wins; he did it in the face of, as Pagano would put, it “circumstances.”

Pagano deserves credit too. Not only was he their inspiration, but you don’t just roll out of bed week 1 a 9-win improved team. Arians coached the most games and deserves a ton of credit for the wins he actually got on the field, but Pagano helped build this team and mold them into a playoff team in the off-season. He was their coach for 4 months from rookie camp to week 1 before he was even diagnosed with cancer and laid the framework for Arians to take over and have the kind of success they did. Both men were their Head Coach and both men were the reason they were able to such an amazing season. Both men deserve this award.

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Washington Redskins 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Commanders

The Redskins got to where they were this season by being aggressive. They were aggressive in trading away three 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick for Robert Griffin and then making him the week 1 starter immediately after. They were aggressive building their entire offense around him, creating one of the NFL’s several new innovative read option offenses. You could also say they were aggressive (though unconventional might be the better word), when they took Kirk Cousins in 4th round to be Griffin’s backup. Cousins played a key role in their playoff run, winning one game and leading a comeback in another after Griffin got hurt. They were also aggressive playing Griffin less than 100% down the stretch.

However, aggressiveness was ironically their eventual downfall. Up 14-0 in the wild card round, Robert Griffin tweaked that previous knee injury and the Redskins chose to leave him in the game. They didn’t score the rest of the way, losing 24-14, as Griffin did not look right. Worst of all, his leg gave out late in the 4th quarter and he had to be taken out. Doctors determined that he partially tore his ACL, LCL, and meniscus and that surgery would be needed. Griffin is a fantastic athlete, but he’s suffered the same ligament damage before and the Redskins are privately worried about not just his week 1 availability, but his long term outlook.

Obviously, in hindsight, taking Griffin out of the game before he reinjured himself would have been the right move, especially if they had done it at 14-0. Kirk Cousins would have been coming off the bench cold and seeing his first ever playoff action as a rookie, but he should have been able to preserve the win and, more importantly, preserve Robert Griffin.

However, I don’t disagree with the move the Redskins made. If it had worked out, Robert Griffin would have been seen as a tougher than nails hero and Mike Shanahan would have looked like a genius. Likewise, if Shanahan had pulled Griffin for Cousins and Cousins had blown the game, Shanahan would be ridiculed and Robert Griffin’s toughness could have been questioned.

We live in a results based hindsight news cycle. Most of the same people who said that Griffin should have been pulled also ridiculed Jay Cutler for sitting on the bench during the NFC Championship game a few years ago. You can’t have it both ways. Personally, I believe in toughing it out, which is why I support Shanahan’s decision. Cousins couldn’t have been trusted in that situation and you pulling your star in the middle of the biggest game of the season could have a demotivational effect on your team.

As for the Redskins in 2013, I believe they’ll privately prepare for Kirk Cousins to start at least the first few games of the season. Robert Griffin could begin the year on the PUP, which would cost him the first 6 weeks. Cousins has shown he’s capable on occasion, but he’s no sure thing. The Redskins will be getting several other key players back from injury, pass rusher Brian Orakpo and starter Adam Carriker will return on defense, while they should get more out of top receiver Pierre Garcon. However, not having Griffin out there or not having him 100% will hurt. The Redskins’ tremendous fumble luck won’t carry over in 2013 either (they recovered 20 of 29 fumbles in the regular season and scored 3 times off them). Given that, it’ll be tough for them to make the playoffs again in 2013.

Offensive Tackle

Jammal Brown missed the entire season with a hip injury. He hasn’t been the same since injuring that hip in 2009. Even when he has been on the field, he’s been terrible. Owed 3.5 million next season, he’s an obvious candidate for release. Tyler Polumbus, who played on the right side in Brown’s absence this year, was among the worst offensive tackles in the league. Out of 80 eligible offensive tackles, Polumbus ranked 77th on ProFootbalFocus last season.

Safety

Brandon Meriweather is their top safety, but he tore his ACL in November and was having trouble staying healthy even before that. He can’t be counted on. Neither can any of their other safeties. Madieu Williams, Reed Doughty, and DeJon Gomes aren’t very good and Williams is also a free agent. They need to add at least one new starter at safety this off-season.

Cornerback

Nickel cornerback Cedric Griffin is a free agent, while DeAngelo Hall might not be back either. He’s owed 7.5 million next season and is a rumored candidate for release, though he’s said he’d restructure to stay with the team. If either one of those two aren’t back, they’ll need to find a replacement because their in house options aren’t very good.

Middle Linebacker

Age appears to have finally caught up with London Fletcher, who graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 51st ranked middle linebacker out of 53. Owed 5.5 million in an age 38 contract year in 2013, he’s considering retirement and that might be the best thing for the Redskins because he’s not worth that money if he keeps playing like this, but I don’t know if they can really cut him either because he’s been there so long. If he’s not back, 2012 4th round pick Keenan Robinson is a potential successor, but they might want some more competition.

Tight End

Fred Davis tore his ACL mid-season and he’s a free agent this off-season anyway, as he was playing on the franchise tag in 2012. If he’s not brought back, they need another pass catching tight end. Replacement Logan Paulsen blocks well, but doesn’t do much in the passing game.

Rush Linebacker

Ryan Kerrigan and Brian Orakpo are a great duo when healthy, but Orakpo will be coming off a torn pectoral that cost him most of this season. Rob Jackson and Lorenzo Alexander split snaps in his absence, but both are free agents this off-season. They really need some depth and insurance for Orakpo.

Punter

Sav Rocca is a solid punter, but he’s coming off a torn MCL and he’s a free agent this off-season. The Redskins will either need to re-sign him or replace him.

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Cincinnati Bengals 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Bengals

Andy Dalton gets a lot of credit for the Bengals’ recent success. After all, a mere 2nd round pick rookie in 2011, Dalton took over a Bengals team that was 4-12 in 2010 and took them to the playoffs in back-to-back years for the first time since 1981-1982. However, he doesn’t deserve nearly as much credit as this defense. Dalton has led this offense to 22.9 points per game in his first 2 seasons combined, which is an improvement over the 20.1 they scored in 2010, but not significantly. Meanwhile, their defense has gone from allowing 24.7 points per game in 2010 to allowing 20.1 points per game over the last 2 seasons, boasting a top-10 scoring defense in each year (while the offense has ranked 18th and 12th).

This year, they actually had one of the worst defenses in the league through the first 8 games, a 3-5 start that included a home loss to Miami. However, they went 7-1 the rest of the way up until the playoffs, thanks to the #1 ranked scoring defense in the 2nd half of the season. This defense is led by Geno Atkins, who played well all season and might be the defensive player of the year if not for JJ Watt. In the 2nd half, players like Carlos Dunlap, Reggie Nelson, and Michael Johnson stepped up, while talented cornerback Leon Hall got healthy and veterans Adam Jones and Terence Newman had surprisingly very good seasons in the secondary.

However, for the 2nd straight year it was one and done in the postseason for the Bengals. They have a talented roster, but Andy Dalton may be the limiting factor, at least when you talk about them as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. He definitely doesn’t deserve the credit for the Bengals’ turnaround that the media is giving him. Dalton is now 0-2 in the post-season in his career and is a loss away from a full Matt Ryan. Unlike with Matt Ryan, I think that 0-2 post-season record is legitimate. Unlike Ryan, who twice lost to eventual Super Bowl Champions, Dalton lost both times to a Houston team that was bounced in the next round.

Andy Dalton also doesn’t possess quite the same regular season success as Ryan, whose Falcons teams have averaged around 11 wins per season in his career, a record Dalton has never even accomplished. Ryan also has led 4 top-10 offenses in his first 5 years in the NFL, something Dalton has never even accomplished either. Ryan may be more experienced than Dalton, but even Ryan’s rookie year, where he led the Falcons to be 10th in scoring and win 11 games, is better than either of Dalton’s first two years in the NFL.

Dalton also possesses a terrible record against quality opponents in his career. If you count the game against the Ravens’ backups week 17 of 2012 as a non-playoff team, Dalton is 18-4 against non-playoff teams in his career, but just 1-11 against playoff teams, including those two post-season early exits. That one win was against the early season Redskins, who lost left tackle Trent Williams in that game. In those 12 games, Dalton is 250 of 445 (56.2%) for 2934 yards (6.6 YPA), 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions against playoff teams. In the other 22 games, he’s 420 of 679 (61.9%) for 4518 yards (6.7 YPA), 35 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions.

You can say it is way too early in Dalton’s career to put him under this kind of a microscope, but remember, this has never been a kid with a huge ceiling. He doesn’t have amazing physical gifts and you have to wonder how much better he’s going to get. Obviously I’m not saying bench him or anything, but the media gives him way too much credit. He’s an overrated player. Over the next few years, the discussion around him should shift from how great he is to “can you win a Super Bowl with Andy Dalton?” As for the Bengals, they have a very talented roster around him and though they have several key free agents, they’ve got plenty of cap space (a league leading 55.1 million) to re-sign them and more if they so choose.

Middle Linebacker

Rey Maualuga was awful this year. He was by far ProFootballFocus’ worst rated linebacker, getting torched in coverage with regularity and finishing among the league’s worst in terms of tackling, missing 16. He picked a bad year to do that. Normally a decent linebacker, Maualuga was in a contract year this year and might not even get another starting job this off-season. The Bengals should use this opportunity to upgrade the middle of their linebacking corps. They may be moving Vontaze Burfict there so he can play his natural position, but that would open up another need at outside linebacker (more on that later).

Defensive End

The Bengals had one of the most efficient pass rushes in the NFL this season, but it was almost all because of three players, Geno Atkins, Michael Johnson, and Carlos Dunlap. Atkins is a defensive tackle. Johnson is a free agent and Dunlap has never been trusted as more than a nickel rusher. The Bengals will probably franchise tag Johnson, but Robert Geathers, their other starting defensive end, is also a free agent. He’s not much of a pass rusher at all (he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 56th ranked pass rushing 4-3 defensive end out of 62 eligible), so the Bengals should use this opportunity to upgrade him and get a better player to rotate with Johnson and Dunlap at defensive end.

Outside Linebacker

Back to the linebackers. Rey Maualuga isn’t their only free agent at the position. Manny Lawson and Thomas Howard are also free agents. The former is a decent two down linebacker, but nothing more, while Howard is coming off a torn ACL. Vontaze Burfict played well in Howard’s absence this year, but if he moves to middle linebacker, they could be left needing two new starters on the outside. Lawson could be brought back as the 3rd linebacker, but he’s not an every down guy and Howard can’t be trusted even if he is re-signed.

Safety

The Taylor Mays experiment didn’t last long. The Bengals were forced to move Nate Clements from cornerback to safety to play alongside Reggie Nelson and they also re-signed Chris Crocker mid-season and he saw some playing time. They can’t rely on that long term. Both Crocker and Clements are free agents and are heading into their age 33 and 34 seasons respectively. They need a new starter next to Nelson.

Running Back

BenJarvus Green-Ellis had a bunch of rushing yards this season, but that has more to do with the Bengals’ awesome offensive line and the sheer number of carries he got. He once again averaged less than 4 yards per carry overall this season. He can run through holes if they’re there, but he’s only a between the tackles plodder and he frequently ranks among the worst in the NFL in yards after contract per carry.

Backups Bernard Scott and Brian Leonard are both free agents and the Bengals have already talked about bringing in a compliment for Green-Ellis. If they had another explosive back in the mix, they could be among the best running teams in the NFL, given their offensive line. There will be plenty of options for them on day 2 of the NFL draft.

Offensive Tackle

Andre Smith is a free agent. He was terrible in his first two years in the league and looked on his way to being a bust so, in the off-season after the 2010 season, the Bengals declined an option on his contract for 2013 and 2014, shortening his rookie deal from 6 years to 4 years. This year, he was arguably the best right tackle in the NFL. In hindsight, they may have made a mistake not exercising that option, but it definitely looked like the right move at the time. Besides, that move may have been the wakeup call he needed to get things right as he’s played very well over the past 2 years.

There’s definitely a buyer beware tag on him. Not only has he never played on the blind side, but once he gets a bunch of guaranteed money, he may revert to sloth mode like his first two years. He’s always had talent, but there was a lot made about his lack of effort and hustle before the draft. He was also recently arrested for bringing a gun into an airport. The Bengals will reportedly use the franchise tag on Michael Johnson, rather than him. If the Bengals choose not the re-sign him, they may be able to get by with Anthony Collins, a swing tackle who has impressed in limited action in the past, at right tackle, but they’d need some competition for him.

Kicker

The Bengals used two different kickers this year because of injuries, Josh Brown and Mike Nugent, but both are free agents this off-season. Nugent was their franchise tagged player a year ago and Josh Brown hit 11 of 12 in his absence this year, so either one is fine, but they need to re-sign one or replace them both.

Punter

Punter Kevin Huber is also a free agent.

Kick Returner

Kick returner Brandon Tate is also a free agent.

Punt Returner

And so is punt returner Adam Jones.

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Chicago Bears 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Bears

The Bears started the season 7-1 and then went 3-5 in the 2nd half to finish 10-6 and out of the playoffs, firing long time Head Coach Lovie Smith. What happened? Did they have a “meltdown?” Well, if you look at their schedule, it’s more obvious. In the first half of the season, they played two playoff teams, going 1-1 in those 2 games, and winning their other 6. In the second half of the season, they played 6 playoff teams, going 1-5 in those 6 games and 2-0 against non-playoff teams.

The Bears may have been the only 10 win team to miss the playoffs, missing them by virtue of a tiebreaker, but Bears fans weren’t missing much. The Bears’ struggles against playoff teams suggested they would have been one and done anyway if they had made the playoffs. Unlike the Giants and maybe even the Steelers, two other expected playoff teams that missed the playoffs, the Bears were never really much of a threat to do damage in the post-season. With new Head Coach Marc Trestman coming in, they have a lot of work to do this off-season.

Guard

This off-season has to be all about getting Jay Cutler some help. The Bears’ offensive supporting cast is miserable. Hiring offensive minded Head Coach Marc Trestman is a start, but they need some actual talent on the field, especially on the offensive line. Mike Tice is a great offensive line coach, but he refused to admit he couldn’t coach up the guys he had and, as a result, the Bears never put much emphasis on the offensive line during the off-season. It really showed, as the Bears ranked 27th in the NFL in pass block efficiency this year, which was sadly a 3 year high (30th in 2011 and 32nd in 2010).

The Bears can probably fill the hole at right guard if they decide to keep Gabe Carimi there long term. The former 1st round pick looked to be on his way to being a bust at right tackle, but he played well at right guard down the stretch this season and might be a long term starter there if they decide to keep him there. Either way, they need at least one new starter. Chilo Rachel entered the season as the starting left guard, but he was terrible and got benched mid-season, after which he left the team without giving a reason. Chris Spencer and James Brown played there the rest of the way, but they were awful.

Offensive Tackle

J’Marcus Webb was Mike Tice’s favorite, but he could never really coach the athletic former 7th round pick into a legitimate starting left tackle. This year was his best as a pro. After grading out among the worst offensive tackles in the league on ProFootballFocus in 2010 and 2011, he was actually average this year, but he may still be better off at right tackle long term. Right tackle is a huge issue right now. Carimi was moved to right guard, where he was better, but he’s been terrible at right tackle throughout the two years of his career and moving him back doesn’t make any sense. Jonathan Scott was awful in place of Carimi down the stretch. They need at least one new starter at this position.

Tight End

I don’t think Jay Cutler would mind an upgrade over Kellen Davis. Davis was ProFootballFocus’ worst rated pass catching tight end this season and being a solid blocker didn’t make up for that. He caught just 19 of the 44 balls targeted to him, dropping 8, and showed nothing after the catch either. Only Delanie Walker had a worse catch to drop ratio and he ranked dead last in yards per route run with 0.63. For comparison, Anthony Fasano was the next worst at 0.85.

The fact that only 5 tight ends played more snaps than him this season tells you all you need to know about why the Bears were so inefficient offensively this season. He shouldn’t even be out there as a starter. The Bears had a talented tight end Greg Olsen, but traded him because former offensive coordinator Mike Martz doesn’t know what to do with tight ends. When they fired Martz and Tice took over as the offensive coordinator and started using a tight end with regularity, they were in big trouble. They desperately need an upgrade, though one won’t be hard to find.

Center

Roberto Garza bounced back from grading out as one of the worst centers in the NFL in 2011, but he is a still mediocre center. On this offensive line, that makes him arguably their most dependable starter, but still. Besides, he may not be dependable for too much longer as he turns 34 in March. He’s also heading into a contract year.

Middle Linebacker

Brian Urlacher struggled mightily through injuries this season, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 44th ranked middle linebacker this year out of 53 eligible. He was even worse against the run, as only Paris Lenon had a worse run stopping rating than him. A free agent this off-season heading into his age 35 season, there’s been increased speculation that he may not return to the Bears next season, especially after the Bears fired long time Head Coach Lovie Smith. There’s always the possibility he pulls as Ray Lewis and decides to hang them up as well. If he’s not back next season, the Bears will need an immediate replacement and they’ll need a successor either way.

Defensive Tackle

Henry Melton has been an underrated player for a while and made his first Pro-Bowl this season, deservingly so. He’s also a free agent this off-season and re-signing him should be a priority of their off-season, though he could follow former defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli to Dallas. If he’s not retained, he’ll need to be replaced.

Outside Linebacker

He’s obviously not as big named as Brian Urlacher, but Nick Roach is also a free agent from their linebacking corps this off-season. If he’s not retained, they’ll need a new 3rd linebacker.

Quarterback

Jay Cutler has missed at least one game in each of the last 3 seasons and unless their offensive line improves in a hurry, that could easily happen again in 2013. For that reason, the Bears need a good backup quarterback. They tried Jason Campbell this season. That didn’t work, but he’s a free agent and they can go after a replacement this off-season.

Bears fans might not like this, but don’t be surprised if that quarterback is Tim Tebow. Marc Trestman is a known Tebow believer. He worked with Tebow before the 2010 NFL Draft and Trestman’s former CFL team, the Montreal Alouttes, own Tebow’s rights in the CFL. Trestman also spoke fondly over Tebow before being hired as the Bears Head Coach, saying “when you’re an accurate passer and you have the intangibles that go along with that, you can figure it out and make it work and, whether Tim changed his motion or not, I believed he would figure it out and I don’t have any doubt that he’ll be very, very successful.”

I actually like the fit. Tebow would be a clear backup in Chicago so the media circus wouldn’t be as big. “Should the Bears bench Jay Cutler for Tim Tebow” won’t be a First Take topic every day like it was with the shaky Mark Sanchez in New York (though Skip Bayless may try to make that happen). He really needs to go somewhere where he’s believed in and the new offense Trestman is bringing is pistol/option heavy, which suits Tebow’s strengths.

And this might be the best job Tebow can get this off-season. It doesn’t look like anyone wants to make him their starter and most teams probably won’t even want to make him their backup because he requires such a specific scheme to be successful. You don’t want to have to overhaul your whole playbook just because you have to go to the backup quarterback. The Bears and maybe the Seahawks (who could trade Matt Flynn) are definite options for him when you consider that. Plus, with Cutler’s injury history, Tebow might get a game or two to show what he has, which is something he probably wouldn’t get elsewhere.

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Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots: AFC Conference Championship

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 3 NFL Picks, Patriots, Ravens

I’ve gone back and forth on this one. On one hand, some of the reasons I didn’t like the Patriots last week are still true. They’re still a terrible post-season spread team, going 2-7 ATS in their last 9 post-season games and 4-8 ATS all-time as favorites of more than 4 in the post-season. Last year, they were favored by a similar amount in a similar situation here against Baltimore and they failed to cover.

These two teams always play close. They’ve met 6 times since 2007 and only one game was decided by more than 6 points and that was in the Ravens’ favor. The Ravens have endured 4 losses by exactly a field goal to the Patriots in that time period, while the Patriots lost by 1 earlier this year. Joe Flacco matches up perfectly with a New England secondary that can’t defend the deep pass as Flacco goes deep more than any quarterback in the NFL. The Patriots also may be overconfident after scoring so many points last week. Teams are 3-14 ATS since 2002 off a post-season game in which they score 38 or more, though the Ravens did the same thing last week, albeit in less convincing fashion.

On the other hand, Joe Flacco has put together two straight good post-season games, but he’s incredibly inconsistent and might not be able to come through a 3rd time. He’s actually 7-4 in the post-season in his career, but he only completes about 53% of his passes as he’s always relied on a strong defense until this year. This year, he doesn’t have a strong defense, but he’s stepped up. He’ll have to do it again this week if the Ravens are going to compete. Tom Brady will get his and if Flacco doesn’t play well, they won’t have much of a chance. Flacco generally struggles on the road, where he’s just 4-6 SU (4-6 ATS) in his career off a road win.

They may also be exhausted after last week’s double overtime marathon. Teams are just 1-7 since 2002 on normal rest in the post-season off an overtime game when their opponent is not coming off an overtime game. Meanwhile, the Patriots play very well in same-season revenge games, going 11-3 ATS in this spot under Bill Belichick, though 9-0 ATS in the regular season inside their crappy division and just 2-3 ATS in the post-season.

Finally, the Ravens are a publicly backed underdog. Publicly backed underdogs rarely cover because it creates a slighted favorite. The Patriots might not be getting their true respect this week and have plenty of bulletin board material. Besides, something fishy may be going on with publicly backed teams this post-season, as both the Broncos and Patriots had several borderline calls go against them last week. The odds makers didn’t do as well as they normally do this season, so a conspiracy theorist might say they are trying to make up for it this post-season.

At the end of the day, I’m taking the Patriots. You’ve heard the old adage, when in doubt, take the points. In the post-season, I prefer, when in doubt, take the better quarterback. I especially like that when it means fading a publicly backed underdog. I’m definitely not confident about this one though. I’m just looking forward to a great game.

New England Patriots 31 Baltimore Ravens 20

Pick against spread: New England -8 (-110) 1 unit

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New York Giants 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Giants

With two Super Bowl rings, some people put Eli Manning in the same tier as Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers. While, the two rings undoubtedly makes him “elite,” those other 3 guys are clearly in another tier and this season once again showed why. In 9 years as a starter, Eli Manning has missed the playoffs 4 times, including 3 of the last 4 seasons, and has only won a playoff game in 2 of those 9 seasons.

In 11 years as a starter, Tom Brady has missed the playoffs once and won a playoff game in all but 3 years. Peyton Manning has missed the playoffs just twice in his 14 season long NFL career, though he has suffered 8 exits without a postseason win. Aaron Rodgers, though more inexperienced than the quarterbacks already mentioned, has missed the playoffs once in his 5 year NFL career and won at least won playoff game twice in those five years, the same amount as Eli Manning has in 9. Eli Manning has had two incredible six week stretches in his career, leading to those 2 Super Bowls, and I’m sure the Giants wouldn’t trade 2 Super Bowls in 5 years for anything, but there’s something to be said for consistency and consistent excellence.

This year, the Giants missed the playoffs, enduring yet another 2nd half skid. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, the same season as Eli Manning became the starter, the Giants are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 30-42 in the second 8 games of the season. Eli Manning is not completely to blame, but his numbers are noticeably worse in the 2nd half of the season. His completion percentage drops about 3%. His YPA drops about 7/10ths of a yard per attempt. And his touchdown to interception ratio goes from 111/61 to 100/83.

This year, he completed 62.6% of his passes in the first half of the season, as opposed to 56.6% in the 2nd half, while averaging 7.8 YPA to 6.8. Only his touchdown to interception ratio (12/8 to 14/7) was improved in the 2nd half of the season. He once again had a strong season overall and you can’t really blame the Giants’ failure to make the playoffs on him, but he didn’t drag the Giants into the playoffs like the aforementioned trio has in the past. The good news for Giants’ fans: their +85 points differential was 2nd best in the NFL among non-playoff teams, behind Chicago. That tends to predict an impending improved season.

Middle Linebacker

The Giants signed Chase Blackburn very late into the 2011 season, but he actually played pretty solid down the stretch, including an interception of Tom Brady in the Super Bowl that might have been the difference in the game. The Giants rewarded him with a starting job this season and Tom Coughlin loves him because of his intangibles, but the reality is, he’s just not that good. There’s a reason he was signed so late into 2011. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 43rd ranked middle linebacker out of 53 eligible. He’s a free agent this season and the Giants should use that opportunity to upgrade that spot.

Offensive Tackle

Starting offensive tackles William Beatty and Sean Locklear are both free agents. Beatty broke out this season as the 2009 2nd round pick played at a borderline Pro-Bowl level, while Locklear, a veteran journeyman, was surprisingly decent. However, Beatty has a history of injuries problems and the Giants shouldn’t overpay him based on this one season. Locklear, meanwhile, cannot be trusted long term.

David Diehl is a former starter and he was their swing tackle this season after getting beaten out by Locklear, but he’s horrible. He was ProFootballFocus’ worst rated overall offensive lineman in 2011, ranking among the league’s worst at both offensive tackle and guard, and this year he wasn’t much better in limited action. Owed 4.1 million in his age 33 season next year, he’s an obvious candidate for release this off-season. They have a couple interesting former late round picks, but depending on what happens, the Giants could need to bring in at least two more offensive tackles this off-season.

Defensive End

Want to know why the Giants missed the playoffs? Their signature pass rush ranked just 14th in the NFL in pass rush efficiency this season. Justin Tuck had a 2nd straight disappointing regular season. He played incredibly well last postseason, but that didn’t carry over to this year. Owed 4.5 million in a contract year heading into his age 30 season in 2013, there’s been some talk the Giants could cut him. Osi Umenyiora, meanwhile, is a free agent. They could need to add at least one more defensive end to the mix if they plan on keeping up a four man rotation at end (with Mathias Kiwanuka on moving from linebacker on passing downs).

Tight End

Martellus Bennett played very well this season in his 5th year in the league, his first as a starter. Not only was he an awesome blocker, like he was in Dallas, he chipped in with 55 catches for 625 yards and 5 touchdowns. The Giants won’t overpay him based off of one season though and Eli Manning has always shown the ability to get a lot out of mediocre pass catching tight ends in the past, so his breakout year may be more on Manning than anyone. If he leaves, they’ll have to find another tight end for Eli to get production out of.

Cornerback

What the hell happened to Corey Webster? Normally a solid cornerback, Webster was torched frequently this season, surrendering the 3rd most yards and 2nd most touchdowns of any cornerback this season. He graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 110th ranked cornerback out of 113 eligible. I don’t know if it was the Giants’ lack of an elite pass rush, or age (he turned 30 in March), or if he was playing injury, but he was terrible. Owed 7 million in an age 31 contract year in 2013, he might be cut this off-season.

Either way, the Giants need someone to go long term with 2011 1st round pick Prince Amukamara and maybe 2012 3rd round pick Jayron Hosley, though he struggled too this season, on the league’s 31st ranked pass defense. Terrell Thomas will almost definitely be cut, owed a non-guaranteed 8.25 million in 2013, coming off back-to-back seasons where he tore his ACL.

Outside Linebacker

Keith Rivers is a free agent, while some are speculating that Michael Boley could be cut for ineffectiveness, owed 4.25 million in his age 31 season in 2013. If both are gone, they’ll need at least one new starter at the position and he may have to be an every down linebacker because Mathias Kiwanuka moves to defensive end on passing downs. They may opt to bring two players to split time like Boley and Rivers did this year, or they may bring in a player to split time with Jacquian Williams, a coverage specialist who was decent in limited action this season.

Guard

Kevin Boothe had a breakout year at left guard this season. He’s a free agent this off-season and will need to be re-signed, though they have to avoid overpaying him based on one year. If he’s not retained, they may go outside of the organization for a replacement, but they have some in house candidates as well.

Safety

The Giants have Antrel Rolle and breakout player Stevie Brown, but if Kenny Phillips leaves as a free agent, they’ll still need safety help. The Giants use a lot of 3 safety looks and it was no surprise that their defense was much better when the oft injured Phillips was out there. That allowed Antrel Rolle to play up closer to the line of scrimmage and cover the slot. If they want someone more reliable than Phillips, they’ll try to find another 3rd safety this off-season.

Kicker

Lawrence Tynes is a free agent this off-season, who will either need to be re-signed or replaced.

Punt Returner

Rueben Randle was a pretty ineffective punt returner this year, leading the way as the Giants averaged 7.2 yards per punt return, 30th in the NFL.

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