Month: January 2013

Dallas Cowboys 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Cowboys

Another year, another Cowboys December meltdown. This year the script was a little bit different. Entering the month of December at 5-6, it didn’t look like there would be anything for the team to choke away, but three straight wins put them in control of their own destiny with two games to go. Even with a week 16 loss, the Giants’ late season struggles allowed the Cowboys to still control their own destiny heading into a “win and you’re in” week 17 clash with the Redskins. However, at the end of the day, the Cowboys strong start to December only served to get their fans hopes up, as the team missed the playoffs for the 3rd straight season and for the 4th time in 5 years.

Tony Romo was much better than he normally was in December this year, playing very well in the three wins, including two upset wins over the Steelers and Bengals, to get them to 8-6. Even their week 16 loss to the Saints was way more on the defense than Romo, who led them back from down two touchdowns in the 4th quarter to send it to overtime, where the defense gave it right back. Through the first 4 games of the month, Romo was 103 of 155 for 1328 yards, 10 touchdowns, and an interception, but he completely melted down against Washington, going 20 of 37 for 218 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 awful, crushing interceptions. Romo is now 16-22 in the months of December and January and 39-16 in all other months of the season.

Still, calls for Romo to be benched are ridiculous. He’s led the team to at least 8 wins in every season as a starter, except for 2010, when he missed 10 games with injuries. He’s still a top-15 NFL quarterback and fans of teams like Arizona, Kansas City, and Jacksonville would kill to have him rather than the rotating door of crap they’ve had in recent memory. I still think he could win a Super Bowl if everything around him were right, but right now it’s not.

That can be blamed on Jerry Jones, the Cowboys’ owner/GM who has made numerous mistakes in building this team over the past few years. He even admitted himself that if the GM were anyone other than himself, he would have fired him by now. He should take some of his own advice and at least hire someone to do the day to day work of a GM. He could still allow himself the final call on decisions, but he’s not qualified to hold the kind of power he currently holds. 71 in October, Jerry Jones is on the path to becoming the next Al Davis.

Guard

The Cowboys made two head scratching decisions at guard last off-season, signing Nate Livings to a 5 year deal to play left guard and signing Mackenzy Bernadeau to a 4 year deal to play right guard. Livings was one of the worst guards in the league in 2011, while Bernadeau was an inexperienced former 7th round pick that no one else saw as a starter. Livings actually played very well this season, but Bernadeau played as expected. There’s been some talk of him moving to center, though I don’t know how much that will help. Either way, they need a new starter at right guard.

Center

Here’s why Bernadeau could move to center. Phil Costa was one of the worst starting centers in the NFL in 2011 and in 2012 he barely played thanks to injuries. They could use a new starter here as well. They really need to shore up the interior of their offensive line. Ryan Cook played alright this season in Costa’s absence, but I don’t know if he can be counted on.

Offensive Tackle

Yeah, they need help in this part of the offensive line too. After a strong 2010 season, the Cowboys rewarded left tackle Doug Free with a 4 year, 32 million dollar contract with 17 million guaranteed, even though he was only a one year starter. He proved to be a one year wonder. He struggled at left tackle in 2011 and was moved to right tackle this year, in hopes of turning things around.

He didn’t turn things around. In fact, he was worse. He was one of the worst tackles in the league, allowing 6 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 42 quarterback hurries, while committing a league leading 15 penalties. He split time with Jeremy Parnell down the stretch, who didn’t impress either. Free ranked 66th out of 80 eligible tackles on ProFootballFocus. Owed a non-guaranteed 7 million in 2013, he could easily be cut and replaced with another right tackle.

Defensive End

The Cowboys have hired Monte Kiffin to coach their defense, which is a stupid move. They spent big resources on Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne last off-season, but both fit a man press scheme better than Kiffin’s signature Cover 2. Kiffin says he won’t force the scheme on the cornerbacks, but why hire Kiffin if you aren’t going to run the Tampa 2? Kiffin is a good coordinator, but this is a terrible fit and it looks like Jerry Jones only did it for the attention and his big name.

That being said, Kiffin will move their front 7 to a 4-3 alignment, which fits their personnel much better. Jay Ratliff is a much better fit at 4-3 defensive tackle than 3-4 nose. All 3 of their talented non-rush linebackers, Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, and Dan Connor, will be able to be on the field at the same time, while Lee and Carter will be able to play in space more often. DeMarcus Ware and Jason Hatcher will shift to defensive end and defensive tackle respectively just fine.

That just leaves the Cowboys needing another end opposite Ware. Anthony Spencer is a candidate, after a breakout 2012, but he’s a free agent and the Cowboys don’t have the cap space to get into a bidding war for him. Many in the know don’t think he’ll be back. Talented rotational edge rusher Victor Butler is also an option, but also a free agent. They could use an early pick on a young bookend for Ware.

Running Back

DeMarco Murray has suffered a major injury in each of his first two seasons in the NFL. This is no surprise. Injuries were the reason he fell to the 3rd round despite his talent. Backup Felix Jones is also injury prone and very inconsistent as well. He can’t be relied on as anything more than a sparingly used change of pace back and he’s a free agent this off-season anyway. Neither Phillip Tanner nor Lance Dunbar showed much in limited action this season. They could use a mid-round pick on some depth here.

Safety

The Cowboys entered 2012 with the proven Barry Church as one of their starting safeties. He barely played this year after tearing his Achilles, but Jerry Jones still thought it would be a good time to give him a 4 year contract even though he wasn’t a pending free agent. He’ll obviously go into 2013 as a starter, but I question if that’s wise. At the very least, they need to add some depth because Danny McCray and others who stepped in for Church this year were awful.

Wide Receiver

Miles Austin has really struggled with injuries over the past two years. He’s owed 6.7 million next year and the cap crunched Cowboys can save 5 million on the cap by cutting him early in the off-season. If they do that, they should add another receiver in the mix. Kevin Ogletree, Dwayne Harris, and Cole Beasley had some good moments this season, but it’s unclear if any of them are starter material. Ogletree will probably get the first crack, but more competition wouldn’t hurt.

Kick Returner

The Cowboys were 29th in the NFL, averaging just 20.6 yards per kickoff return.

Pittsburgh Steelers 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Steelers

Have we overrated Ben Roethlisberger just a bit? In 9 seasons as a starter, he’s had a top-3 scoring defense on his side 6 times. In the 3 years he hasn’t, he’s missed the playoffs, including this year. They weren’t bad or anything this year, allowing 19.6 points per game, 6th in the NFL, including the fewest yards of any team in the NFL. The offense was more of the problem side, scoring just 21.0 points per game, 23rd in the NFL.

Things were fine for the first half of the season as they got out to a 5-3 start, but they lost Ben Roethlisberger to injury week 10 in a game against the Kansas City Chiefs, an eventual overtime victory. Byron Leftwich and then eventually Charlie Batch took over and they went a combined 1-2. However, Batch led an amazing upset of the Ravens in Baltimore week 13 and handed Ben Roethlisberger a 7-5 team that looked like it had a better chance to overtake the Ravens in the AFC North than miss the playoffs, especially with winnable games against San Diego, Dallas, Cincinnati, and Cleveland to close out the season.

However, three losses in three weeks later and that’s exactly where the Steelers were, eliminated at the hands of the division rival Bengals. Roethlisberger deserved a lot of the blame, though it’s very possible he was playing seriously injured. Still, he threw interceptions to set up game winning field goals for the other team against both Dallas and Cincinnati.

Where the Steelers are now is a serious crossroads. Ben Roethlisberger should bounce back. He’s still one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL and you can blame injuries for his late season meltdown. However, it’s not like the Steelers missed the playoffs this year because they played a brutal schedule or because they had any sort of bad luck in close games (4-5). This team lost to Oakland, Tennessee, Cleveland, and San Diego, who were among the worst teams in the NFL. They played the AFC West and the NFC East, among the worst divisions in football. They went 8-8 because they played like an 8-8 team, at best.

Todd Haley looks to be here to stay at offensive coordinator even though he appears to be a terrible fit, which hurts. Finally, the team has a lot of decisions to make on personnel this offseason, with little cap room, several big name free agents, and several more big names that may be at the point in their careers where their abilities no longer justify their salaries. The 2013 Steelers could look a lot different than the Steelers teams of the past few years and they could easily be a less talented bunch, at least on paper.

Middle Linebacker

Larry Foote was one of several over 30 starters on their defense last year. He was by far the worst and it appears that the career journeyman’s skills have completely eroded. He ranked as ProFootballFocus’ 46th rated middle linebacker out of 53 eligible this season. A free agent heading into his age 33 season in 2013, he’s reportedly contemplating retirement. Manti Te’o will get a lot of consideration if he falls to them 17th overall on draft day.

Running Back

They occasionally got some good performances from their running backs, but they were definitely inconsistent and they struggled on the whole, as they ranked 28th in the NFL, averaging 3.7 YPC. Their struggles on the ground had a lot to do with why they struggled offensively as a unit. Rashard Mendenhall was a late scratch down the stretch and it’s widely assumed he won’t be welcomed back as a free agent. Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are just too inconsistent to be relied on, while Chris Rainey was just cut after an arrest. There will be plenty of backs for the Steelers to consider on day 2.

Cornerback

Ike Taylor is another over 30 starter, turning 33 in May. He’ll probably be back at his scheduled 6 million dollar salary in 2013, but owed 7 million in his age 34 season in 2014, he might not be and their cornerback depth is suspect. Meanwhile, Keenan Lewis, who played very well this season, is a free agent and the Steelers’ cap situation might not allow them to retain him. They normally use a mid-round pick on a cornerback and it would make sense to do that again this year, regardless of what happens with Keenan Lewis.

3-4 Defensive End

Brett Keisel will be a 35 year old in a contract year in 2013, so it’s very likely he won’t be back with the team in 2014, if he’s even still playing. He’s been a very good player for a very long time, but this year he was just okay. The Steelers have spent first round picks on defensive ends for their 3-4 defense recently, taking Ziggy Hood in 2009 and Cameron Heyward in 2011.

However, Hood looks like a bust as he’s graded out as one of the worst defensive linemen in the league over the past 2 years. He’ll be a free agent next off-season too and his future with the team is murky at best. Heyward, meanwhile, is still a bit of an unknown, playing just 514 snaps combined in his first 2 years in the league. He’ll get a bigger role in 2013, but it still wouldn’t surprise me if they used an early pick on this position for 2014 and beyond.

Nose Tackle

Here’s another over 30 starter (one of a ridiculous 7 that the Steelers had last season on defense). Casey Hampton is a 36 year old free agent this off-season. The Steelers like Steve McLendon, who played well in limited action this season. He’s a restricted free agent, but he’ll be brought back. The question is if he can play the 500+ snaps that Hampton usually plays on a yearly basis, which is rare for a nose tackle. The Steelers also have Alameda Ta’amu, a 2012 4th round pick, in the mix, but he didn’t play a snap as a rookie and dealt with off the field issues.

Safety

Here’s two more over 30 starters. Troy Polamalu and Ryan Clark are entering their age 32 and 34 seasons respectively in 2013. Clark seems like the younger player actually as he’s still playing well and relatively healthy. Polamalu is still a big impact player on the field, even when not at full strength, but it seems like he misses more games than he plays. He’s owed 7.5 million next season and 8.25 million in 2014, so the Steelers may have a very interesting decision to make with him in one of the next two off-seasons. The Steelers will need some youth at the position behind them.

Offensive Tackle

The Steelers are prepared to go forward with youngsters Mike Adams and Marcus Gilbert at offensive tackle next season. However, they could use some veteran depth. Re-signing Max Starks or signing someone comparable would suffice.

Guard

Willie Colon has ended the last 3 seasons on IR. He actually played most of this year before eventually getting hurt, which is much better than 2010 and 2011, when he playied in just 1 game combined. However, injuries have forced him to move to guard, where he’s simply not worth the 5.5 million he’s owed next season. A very injury prone player, the Steelers will reportedly cut him and replace him with Kelvin Beachum. Beachum struggled some at right tackle this season, but might be a better fit at left guard in his 2nd year in the NFL. Still, only a 7th round pick in 2012, the Steelers need some veteran competition. Re-signing Ramon Foster or signing a comparable player would suffice.

Rush Linebacker

Here’s their final over 30 starter. James Harrison will be owed 6.57 million in 2013, his age 35 season, and with declining abilities and a recent history of nagging injuries, the Steelers may just decide he’s not worth that, especially given their cap situation. Jason Worilds and Chris Carter have been inconsistent when asked to step in for him over the past few years, but they’ll be given an opportunity to replace him if he is cut. That won’t stop the Steelers from bringing someone else in the mix.

Wide Receiver

Mike Wallace is not expected to be retained as a free agent. The Steelers didn’t like the way he handled himself last season, nor did they like the way he played when he finally ended his holdout. He’s not a good fit for Todd Haley’s offense and the Steelers flat out down have the cap room to pay him what he wants. The Steelers will probably be fine going into 2013 with Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders as the starters, but it wouldn’t hurt them to bring in some more competition.

Tight End

Heath Miller tore his ACL in December and will be in a race to play week 1. The Steelers should bring in a better backup because they don’t have anyone else that catches passes well on their roster and the tight end is a big part of Haley’s offense.

Kick Returner

Chris Rainey used to be their primary kick returner, but he was cut after an off the field incident.

Punt Returner

Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders were their primary punt returners last season, but, as they take on bigger roles on offense with Mike Wallace likely leaving, the Steelers may want to bring in a specialist just to decrease the likelihood of injury to two guys that figure to be big parts of their offense.

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San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons: NFC Conference Championship

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 3 NFL Picks, 49ers, Falcons

I’m going to do New England/Baltimore later in the week, but I had to lock this one in now because this line is ridiculous. Atlanta is 5 point home underdogs. Being a home underdog in the Conference Championship isn’t unheard of. Even being a home underdog as a #1 seed in the Conference Championship isn’t unheard of. But I can’t find a single case where a team was a home underdog by more than 4 points (a key number), regardless of seed (home dogs of 4+ are 7-3 ATS in the playoffs since 1989).

This is the 2nd largest home underdog Matt Ryan has ever been. He was a 6 point home dog last year against the Packers. That Packer team went on to go 15-1. The Falcons were 2.5 point home favorites last week for the Seahawks and won by 2. By the logic of this line, the 49ers are 7 points better than the Seahawks. Uh…didn’t the Seahawks blow the 49ers out a few weeks ago?

I know that was in Seattle and the 49ers didn’t have Justin Smith, but when these teams met midseason in San Francisco and the 49ers were healthy, they were 7.5 point home favorites and won by 7, which suggests that the 49ers are only 5 points better than the Falcons on a neutral field (and this game is in Atlanta). I know the 49ers are an improved team since then, but I think the Seahawks are an even more improved team since then.

I think on a neutral field, the 49ers are about 3 points better than the Seahawks (which would make this a pick em). The odds makers seemed to agree as the Seattle/San Francisco contest hovered around a pick em that week (2.5 point home field adjustment). And now the 49ers are 7 points better than the Seahawks? 3 weeks after getting blown out by them? What? They were barely even 7 points better than them in San Francisco 3 months ago.

I don’t think the odds makers are dumb. In fact, quite the opposite. They know exactly what they’re doing. All the action is on San Francisco this week and I think this line could go even higher and that would be the case. No one is giving the Falcons a chance. The odds makers are setting themselves up for a big payday. They may or may not even help that happen. I’m no conspiracy theorist, but both the Patriots and Broncos had the majority of the borderline calls go against them last week and those were the two most heavily picked teams of the weekend. The odds makers actually had a rough year by their standards. Again, no conspiracy theorist, just stating some facts.

I actually give the Falcons plenty of chance to win. Colin Kaepernick had an amazing game last week, but he won’t have that type of game again. For one thing, I don’t know if anyone will ever have that type of game again. He was posting video game stats. But as well as he played, he was definitely helped by the Packers looking completely confused on defense all game. The 49ers purposely ran very little of the pistol in the final 2 weeks of the season to throw people off the scent for the playoffs and it worked like a charm.

At least last week it did. The Falcons will be better prepared, especially after having just faced a similar style offense the week before. They’ve also faced Cam Newton twice and Robert Griffin once this year. They’ll be as prepared as can be for Kaepernick. Having the personnel to get the job done is a bit of a question, but they won’t be unprepared. And their run defense has been better of late.

You also have to remember that this is still Kaepernick’s first year as a starter. He won last week at home in huge fashion, but now he has to go on the road and play a quarterback that is now 33-6 at home in his career. That’s tough. He may also be a little overconfident after last week. Teams are 3-14 ATS since 2002 after scoring 38 points or more in a postseason game. That includes plenty of veteran quarterbacks. It certainly doesn’t help that Kaepernick is this young.

I don’t love the Falcons to win or anything. But as long as this line is past both the key points of 3 and 4, I’m taking the points for a big play. It’s just not that easy and I mean that in two ways. Playoff football is not as easy as Kaepernick made it look last week and picking games against the spread is not as easy as this game makes it look to a lot of people. This is definitely a trap line. Think of some other playoff games where the public was so convinced one team would win that they put all their money on that team even as the line kept climbing to ridiculous heights. Super Bowl 42 comes to mind, as does Seattle/New Orleans a few years ago.

Atlanta Falcons 24 San Francisco 49ers 23 Upset Pick +185

Pick against spread: Atlanta +5 (-110) 5 units

St. Louis Rams 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Rams

The Rams won 7 games in 2010 in Sam Bradford’s rookie year, but regressed and won just 2 in 2011 thanks to injuries. This year, they won 7 again (plus a tie), but there’s a lot more hope for the future. Their defense went from 26th in 2011 to 14th and they are still one of the youngest defenses in the NFL. In fact, the Rams came into this season as the NFL’s youngest overall roster.
They knocked off some quality opponents and hung close with a few others, beating Seattle, San Francisco, and Washington, tying the 49ers again, and came within a touchdown of beating the Seahawks in Seattle week 17. Their schedule was actually pretty brutal, as they played 9 games against teams who won 10 or more games, going 3-6 in those 9 games, which is respectable.

They won those 7 games in spite of injuries this time and it appears Sam Bradford took another step in his development. He didn’t post eye popping numbers or anything, but, unlike in 2011, the 3rd year quarterback was able to have success in spite of the loss of his left tackle Rodger Saffold and top receiver Danny Amendola for a significant period of time. In 2011, he was completely lost without them, but improved coaching, as well as improved maturity on Bradford’s part, allowed him to adapt.

The Rams need to continue to build around the former #1 overall pick and they have two 1st round picks in each of the next two years to do so. A lot of Rams fans might be kicking themselves for not drafting Robert Griffin and essentially trading away his draft rights, but it’s easy to say that now when we know Griffin is good. Unless you absolutely need a quarterback, like the Redskins did and the Rams didn’t, it’s always safer to take the extra picks. Both teams won that trade and the Rams have a bright future in part because of it.

Offensive Tackle

Building around Sam Bradford starts on the offensive line. When healthy, Rodger Saffold is a more than adequate left tackle, but he’s missed more than half of the team’s offensive snaps over the last 2 seasons. Swing tackle Wayne Hunter has to play at left tackle when Saffold is out and that’s not pretty. He’s due 3.95 million next season anyway and almost definitely won’t be brought back at that salary. Also possibly not back is right tackle Barry Richardson, who is better than Hunter, but only by default. He’s a free agent. They need at least one new tackle, a starter at right tackle, and while they may be able to get away with Richardson as a swing, they should look at other options because of how often Saffold is hurt.

Guard

Offensive tackle wasn’t the only issue on their offensive line. The Rams had 4 different players start at left guard this season, Rokevious Watkins, Quinn Ojinnaka, Shelley Smith, and Robert Turner. Turner closed out the season there and played the best of the bunch, but only by default. He played much better at center when Scott Wells was hurt and if he’s retained as a free agent this off-season, it should be as a reserve center, rather than a starting left guard. 2012 5th round pick Watkins might be seen as the 2013 starter now, but they shouldn’t write that in stone. Guards should be considered early in the 2013 NFL Draft.

Safety

The Rams played good defense, but the worst full time player on the unit was free safety Craig Dahl, who frequently missed tackles. The career journeyman is a free agent this off-season and the Rams should take this opportunity to find an upgrade. It’s already being reported that he won’t be welcomed back. With two first round picks, expect them to give safeties a look early.

Outside Linebacker

The Rams locked up middle linebacker James Laurinaitis last off-season and Jo-Lonn Dunbar surprisingly played well this season, though who knows if that will continue long term. They really need an upgrade at the 3rd linebacker spot regardless as one year rental Rocky McIntosh did not impress, even getting benched for Mario Haggan week 17, who wasn’t any better.

Wide Receiver

I don’t think the answer here is more youth and drafting another receiver. The Rams have used a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round pick on a wide receiver over the last 2 drafts, taking Austin Pettis in the 3rd in 2011 and then Brian Quick and Chris Givens in the 2nd and 4th respectively last year. They need to wait on some of that talent to develop, rather than just adding more raw talent. Givens looked great for a 4th round rookie, actually leading the team in receiving, while Pettis has had his moments. Quick barely played as a rookie, but you can never write off a receiver after one year, especially one as athletic as Quick. They obviously need to re-sign Danny Amendola and adding another veteran to replace mediocre free agent Brandon Gibson makes sense, but the only way drafting another receiver makes sense is if it’s the best available player.

Tight End

Here’s where I think they could draft someone. Lance Kendricks was a 2nd round pick in 2011, but he hasn’t been the player they were expecting. He’s a product of the Steve Spagnuolo/Billy Devaney regime so Jeff Fisher/Les Snead won’t have any loyalty to him. They should at least bring in some competition because they don’t have anyone behind him on the depth chart who can catch passes.

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New Orleans Saints 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Saints

How valuable is Head Coach Sean Payton? Well, if you look just at records, you could say he’s worth 6 wins, as the Saints went from 13-3 in 2011 to 7-9 in 2012. However, Payton’s absence wasn’t the only reason for the decline. Drew Brees’ numbers were still great without Payton, not as good as they were in 2011, but it’s unrealistic to expect him to produce like that every year. He still completed 63.0% of his passes for an average of 7.7 YPA, 43 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions. Everyone remembers his 5 interception loss to the Falcons, but everyone is entitled to one bad game, especially on a short week against an opportunistic defense. This was still the NFL’s 3rd ranking scoring offense, scoring 28.8 points per game, only behind the Patriots and Broncos.

The issue was more the coaching on the other side of the field and you can’t really blame Payton’s absence for that. The reason the Saints went 7-9 despite their great offense was that their defense allowed almost exactly the same amount of points, allowing 28.4 per game, 31st in the NFL. Coming into the season, I had Steve Spagnuolo in the horrible Head Coach/great coordinator club, but he obviously lost his membership this year, as the Saints were horrible defensively in his first year with the team as defensive coordinator.

His scheme is predicated around getting pressure with 4 guys, something he’s always been able to do, both in New York with the Giants and in St. Louis with the Rams. When he can do that, he’s effective, but he wasn’t able to do that at all with the defensive line he had in New Orleans, nor was he able to coach those linemen up into better players.

The Saints once again had one of the least efficient pass rushes in the NFL, 29th in pass rush efficiency, and, sticking true to his scheme, he still refused to blitz, which is what former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams did at an NFL leading rate in 2011, with much better success. Unable to generate any pressure, their so so defensive backs were completely overmatched, allowing the highest YPA in the NFL. Their defensive line didn’t do a whole lot of good against the run either, as they also allowed the NFL’s highest YPC. Sean Payton returning in 2013 will help this team, but if Spagnuolo returns too, they could be in some trouble once again. They obviously need to make the defensive line a priority of this off-season.

Defensive End

You could also put defensive tackle first, but I think end is a more important position. Either way, the Saints need to overhaul their defensive line. Will Smith looks pretty done, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 2nd worst 4-3 defensive end this year. Owed 10 million in his age 32 season in 2013, he won’t be back unless he accepts a major pay cut and even then maybe not. The Saints need someone to replace just the sheer volume of snaps he played this year, 1007, 2nd on the line and 5th on the team. Hopefully this player will also make better use of them as well. A defensive end is a definite possibility with the 15th overall pick.

Defensive Tackle

If they don’t use their 15th pick on a defensive end, expect them to use it on a defensive tackle. This is a defensive line rich draft in the top half of the 1st round and the Saints need all the help they can get. Sedrick Ellis is a free agent this off-season and the 1st round pick bust is not expected to be welcomed back. He led the position in snaps played and like, at defensive end with Will Smith, they need a replacement who is going to make better use of those snaps.

Cornerback

Their defensive issues weren’t just on the defensive line. Starters Jabari Greer and Patrick Robinson were both inconsistent and while both will probably be given another shot as starters in 2013, because of all the organization has invested in them (a big contract and a 1st round pick respectively), they definitely need more depth. Corey White was horrible as the 3rd cornerback and the 5th round rookie never should have been put in that position anyway.

Safety

The Saints’ safeties also played horribly. Roman Harper and Malcolm Jenkins ranked next to last and dead last respectively among ProFootballFocus’ safeties this year, routinely blowing coverages and missing tackles. Like with their cornerbacks, they have a lot invested in them, giving Roman Harper a big deal 2 off-seasons ago and using a 1st round pick on Malcolm Jenkins in 2009, but they need some competition. Jenkins is heading into a contract year, while Harper should definitely be put on notice after two straight awful years. If this continues, he should definitely be cut next off-season, owed 6.15 million in 2014. I’d say cut him now, but it doesn’t sound like that will happen.

Outside Linebacker

The Saints made overhauling their linebacking corps a priority this off-season, giving significant contracts to Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne, who both disappointed. The Saints will give them another shot in 2013, but they need an upgrade at the 3rd linebacker spot. Jonathan Vilma played there after his suspension, but he picked up where he left off in 2011, showing his age and playing poorly. Owed 5.9 million in his age 31 season in 2013, he’s not expected to be brought back and the Saints will need a new 3rd linebacker.

Offensive Tackle

Left tackle Jermon Bushrod is a free agent this off-season. The Saints should let him walk. He’s not worth the kind of money someone will probably pay him. Yes, he’s allowed just 10 sacks in the last 3 years, but that’s more on Drew Brees, who has one of the quickest releases in the NFL. In spite of the low sack number, he’s allowed 141 total hits and hurries over that 3 year stretch, most in the NFL, and committed an additional 20 penalties. They should be able to find a comparable replacement easily, maybe even from in house, but they could use this opportunity to find a long term upgrade as well.

Wide Receiver

Devery Henderson is a free agent. He was ProFootballFocus’ 2nd worst rated wide receiver last year and I don’t know if there was anyone less efficient. He caught just 22 passes for 316 yards and a touchdown on 44 targets, despite having one of the best in the game throwing to him, dropping 5 and having another 3 picked off.

That doesn’t even tell the whole story. Those 316 yards came on 454 pass snaps, good for a 0.70 yards per route run average. Among players with as many targets he had, only Early Doucet had a lower average and he had Arizona’s shit show at quarterback. Henderson had Drew Brees. Heading into his age 31 season with a history of injury issues, he shouldn’t be brought back. They might bring in another receiver for depth or opt to replace him in house with Joe Morgan, who was promising in limited action this year, or Nick Toon, a 2012 4th round pick who missed his entire rookie year because of injuries.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Buccaneers

This season must have felt like 4 different seasons for Buccaneers fans. They started 1-3, after losing their last 10 to finish 2011, and it looked like more of the same. However, after the bye, they ripped off wins in 5 of 6 games and looked like a potential playoff team. They lost a close one at home to Atlanta and then in Denver, but those were two of the best teams in the league so they still looked like they were in good position. That was until they lost at home to the lowly Eagles, and then got blown out by the Saints and Rams, to push their losing streak at 5. They finished out their season with an impressive win in Atlanta.

It’s no surprise they’re this inconsistent when their quarterback is this inconsistent. It wasn’t just this year. They went 3-13 in 2009, 10-6 in 2010, and then 4-12 last year as Josh Freeman posted 10/18, 25/6, and 16/22 touchdown to interception ratios in those 3 seasons respectively. This year, he started the year with a 5/4 TD/interception ratio in their first 4 games, then had a 16/3 ratio in their next 6, and then a 5/9 ratio on that 5 game losing streak, before having a decent game against Atlanta. In wins, he had a 97.6 QB rating, which is comparable to Tom Brady’s and Ben Roethlisberger’s. In losses, that rating was 71.4, which is comparable to Chad Henne and Mark Sanchez.

Overall, his stats are solid. His career quarterback rating of 79.8 is nothing special, but it’s not terrible either. But, it must be so maddeningly frustrating for Buccaneers fans to have no idea on a game to game basis what they’re going to get when their quarterback takes the field. It seems to be frustrating the organization as well. They’ve mentioned on several occasions that they will try to bring in some better competition for him this off-season and an upgrade over backup Dan Orlovsky. Josh Freeman is in a contract year in 2013, so it’s going to be a huge year for him. In 2014, he could be anything from a well-paid starting quarterback for the Buccaneers to a backup elsewhere.

Cornerback

Both of the Buccaneers’ week 1 starting cornerbacks got suspended this season. Aqib Talib’s suspension got him traded to New England, ahead of free agency this off-season, while Eric Wright’s voided his contract and gave the Buccaneers the option to cut him and get out of the reminder of his contract without penalty. He’s not worth the 30.75 million he’s owed over the next 4 seasons. It was a ridiculous contract to begin with and the Buccaneers got a lucky break when he voided it. He should be cut and he’s expected to be.

However, without Talib and Wright, the Buccaneers will need two new starting cornerbacks this off-season. They gave a bunch of young cornerbacks a shot down the stretch in their absence, including EJ Biggers, Leonard Johnson, Anthony Gaitor, Brandon McDonald, and Danny Gorrer. None of them really looked like long term starters as the Buccaneers ranked 29th against the pass. They might be able to get away with one of that group as a starter in 2013, but not two. Look for them to target cornerbacks in free agency and/or with the 13th pick of the draft.

Defensive Tackle

Gerald McCoy showed what he can do if he can stay healthy, playing all 16 games for the first time in his 3 year career and having one of the top years by a defensive tackle this season. However, they need an upgrade next to him. Roy Miller is a decent run stuffer, but he had just 5 total quarterback pressures all year. He’s a free agent anyway.

Tight End

The Buccaneers traded away Kellen Winslow last off-season, which proved to be a smart move. He went on to be a final cut by the Seahawks and then was unwanted on the open market, playing a few snaps with the Patriots and that was it. The idea was for 2011 4th round pick Luke Stocker to be his replacement. While he did a good job as a blocker, he didn’t provide much as a pass catcher. Those duties were left to Dallas Clark, but he’s a free agent heading into his age 34 season. They need a pass catching tight end to pair with Stocker long term.

Safety

Ronde Barber had a resurgent season this year at free safety, after the longtime veteran struggled last year at cornerback. However, he turns 38 in April and no one would be surprised if he hung them up. Even if he doesn’t, you can’t count on him long term. He’ll be retiring soon and his abilities could fall off a cliff at any time. They’ll need a long term successor or immediate replacement depending on what he decides, though they might opt to replace him in house with Ahmad Black.

Defensive End

Michael Bennett is one of the most underrated players in the NFL. A lot of common fans don’t know about him, but he’ll get a hefty payday this offseason as a free agent. If the Buccaneers can’t bring him back, they should be fine with 2011 1st and 2nd round picks Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers as starters, but they’ll have no depth and have a need at the position. They should really try to re-sign him though because that trio plays really well together.

Outside Linebacker

The Buccaneers rarely used a 3rd linebacker this season. I don’t know if that was by design, but it might have just been because the coaching staff didn’t trust Quincy Black. Black has been terrible since signing a ridiculous 5 year, 29 million dollar deal 2 off-seasons ago. He should be cut, owed a non-guaranteed 5.5 million coming off a major neck injury sustained in Novemer. The Buccaneers could bring in another 3rd linebacker or give the job to Adam Hayward, who was decent in Black’s absence down the stretch.

Quarterback

Josh Freeman’s inconsistency has to be maddeningly frustrating for Buccaneers fans. At times, he can look like one of the best quarterbacks in the league and at times he can look like the worst. All in all, he posts solid stats, but it’s never a good thing to have no idea what you’re getting from your starting quarterback on a game to game basis. He’s heading into free agency after next season, so this is a key year for him. The Buccaneers have mentioned on several occasions adding a better backup and more competition for him. Dan Orlovsky is no threat to his job. They need to bring in someone who can be, preferably through the early/mid rounds of the draft so he can take over as a starter in 2014 if they need him to.

Guard

Both guards Carl Nicks and Davin Joseph will be coming off major injuries next season. They need some better depth because both Ted Larsen and Jamon Meredith were terrible when counted on this season. Davin Joseph is overrated and overpaid anyway, as he ranked towards the bottom of ProFootballFocus’ guards in his previous two seasons before his injury this year. He probably won’t be cut or anything, but they could use better depth for competition in case he continues to struggle.

Kick Returner

The Buccaneers ranked 30th in the NFL in kickoff return average. Arrelious Benn should not be allowed to serve in that role any longer.

Punt Returner

The Buccaneers were better at returning punts, but primary punt returner Roscoe Parrish is a free agent.

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Miami Dolphins 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Dolphins

The Dolphins have been searching for Dan Marino’s replacement since he retired. Desperate for a quarterback, the Dolphins took raw quarterback Ryan Tannehill 8th overall in the 2012 NFL Draft and when veteran Matt Moore struggled in the pre-season, they made Tannehill a rookie starter. It’s tough to make much of a verdict on his future because he’s still so raw and because he’s not working with the best group of receivers, but even though he was inconsistent this year, the Dolphins have to be pleased with him and hopeful for the future. Now it’s time to build around him and give him every chance to succeed.

Wide Receiver

The Dolphins didn’t give Ryan Tannehill much to work with in terms of receivers after trading away Brandon Marshall. They had no proven receivers in the mix coming into the season. He helped Brian Hartline turn into a 1000 yard receiver, but he was really inconsistent. He had 1083 yards, but almost a quarter of those yards in one game. He was limited to 2 or fewer catches in 5 games, including a game against St. Louis in which he didn’t see a single target, and he only scored once all year.

He’s not consistent enough to be a #1 receiver and he’s a free agent anyway. If he leaves, they’ll need two new starters, but even if he returns, they’ll still need a long term #1 receiver, which would allow Brian Hartline and slot receiver Davone Bess to play complimentary roles. They could easily use the 12th overall pick on Keenan Allen.

Offensive Tackle

The Dolphins should make re-signing Jake Long a priority. I know he was just a 2nd round rookie, but if this year was any indication, Jonathan Martin belongs at right tackle long term. He was terrible all year, ranking 76th among 80 eligible tackles on ProFootballFocus, but was even worse on the left side when Jake Long missed time with injury. In just 5 starts there, he allowed 22 total sacks, hits, and hurries. That’s more than Long allowed all year in 11 starts. If he’s not re-signed, they’ll need at least another starting tackle as swing tackle Nate Garner can’t be counted on, but preferably it would be someone who could play on the left side.

Defensive End

Jared Odrick really struggled at defensive end, ranking 59th out of 62 eligible 4-3 ends on ProFootballFocus, but that makes sense since he’s a defensive tackle. I have no idea what the Dolphins were thinking moving him to end in their new 4-3. He’s a much better fit inside, where he’d rotate with Randy Starks (assuming he’s re-signed, more on that later) and Paul Soliai. That leaves them needing a new defensive end, unless they think nickel rusher and 3rd round rookie Olivier Vernon can be a starter long term.

Cornerback

The Dolphins traded Vontae Davis for a 2nd round pick before the season in a surprise move and it looks like the right one. They were right to be concerned about his conditioning and durability as he was frequently injured with the Colts this year and struggled when on the field. However, cornerback is a big need of theirs so they might use that 2nd round pick on another cornerback. Richard Marshall is no sure thing going forward after back surgery. Nolan Carroll and Jimmy Wilson both struggled when counted on. Sean Smith, meanwhile, emerged as a legitimate #1 cornerback this season, but he’s now a free agent.

Guard

John Jerry was better than maybe his own team thought he would be. The Dolphins had him behind two veteran journeymen on the depth chart at separate points this off-season before one got hurt and the other retired and they were forced to start Jerry, who showed up overweight to Training Camp and was already a poor fit for their new zone blocking scheme. Though he wasn’t bad, he wasn’t good either and he could be upgraded with someone who is a better fit for the scheme.

Tight End

The Dolphins used a 3rd round pick on Michael Egnew last year in a very surprising move and almost immediately regretted it once they got him into camp. They were even rumored to be contemplating making him a final cut last off-season, which would have been unheard of for someone who was a 3rd round pick just 4 months earlier. He was kept on the roster, but played just 25 snaps all season and I think it would be a surprise if he were on the week 1 roster in 2013. He’s certainly not going to be seen as a candidate to replace Anthony Fasano, a mediocre starting tight end who isn’t expected to be brought back as a free agent this offseason. They could replace him in house with Charles Clay, who has some promise, but they could easily bring someone else at the position in.

Defensive Tackle

The Dolphins should move Jared Odrick inside, where he could play an expanded version of the role that was played by Tony McDaniel, who really struggled, last season. Even if they do that, however, this could still be a need if free agent Randy Starks is let go. Odrick could move into the starting lineup for him, but they’d need depth at that case.

Safety

After a couple years of mediocre play, Chris Clemons and Reshad Jones were a very good safety tandem this year. Both are young and should be retained long term. Jones is heading into a contract year, while Clemons is currently a free agent. They should considering giving Jones an extension and they should definitely try to bring back Clemons. If they can’t, he’ll need to be replaced.

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San Diego Chargers 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Chargers

3 years ago everyone was calling for Norv Turner to be fired because of the Chargers’ tendency to have strong regular seasons and then choke in the playoffs every year. I bet the Chargers would trade the last three years for that. Over the last 3 years, the Chargers have begun their underachieving earlier, missing the playoffs in all 3 seasons.

On one hand, things are looking up. Norv Turner was finally fired, as well the architect of this mess, GM AJ Smith. On the other hand, Philip Rivers, once one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL, has regressed mightily over the last 2 seasons. It’s tough to tell why. It’s possible that the 31-year-old quarterback aged early like Carson Palmer. It’s also possible that a lack of offensive supporting cast is to blame. The Chargers will have to focus on the offense this offseason to try to get something out of Rivers, but it wouldn’t shock me if Rivers were throwing for 4000 yards on a 4-12 Raiders team in 3 years. Just saying.

Offensive Tackle

Darren Sproles. LaDainian Tomlinson. Kris Dielman. Marcus McNeill. Vincent Jackson. Antonio Gates. Philip Rivers once had great offensive talent around him on the ground, through the air, and on the line. Of those 6, only Gates remains and he’s a shell of his former shelf and the guys the Chargers replaced them with are pathetic. Ryan Mathews and Ronnie Brown take over LT’s and Sproles’ roles at running back. Tyronne Greene and Mike Harris start on the line in place of Dielman and McNeill. Vincent Jackson is gone, replaced by Malcom Floyd and Danario Alexander. You can’t adequately judge what kind of quarterback Philip Rivers is at this stage of his career in these circumstances. Only a few quarterbacks in the NFL would be able to make anything out of this mess.

The offensive line is the worst. AJ Smith had been the GM since 2004 and he only once used a pick higher than the 3rd round on the offensive line and it showed as they had no depth when injuries hit Marcus McNeill and Kris Dielman, who had to retire early. Left tackle McNeill retired early because of neck problems, while right tackle Jeromey Clary has always been a liability. It’s fine to have one weakness on the offensive line like Clary, but he was actually the better of the two starting tackles this season.

Jared Gaither was given a significant contract after 5 starts with the team last off-season, but he predictably couldn’t stay healthy and didn’t play a snap, forcing undrafted rookie Mike Harris to start on the left side. Making just 12 starts because of injury, Harris still managed to grade out dead last among eligible tackles on ProFootballFocus. As a result, the Chargers ranked 31st in the NFL in pass block efficiency, even worse than Arizona and only ahead of Indianapolis. They need at least one new starter here, if not two. Eric Fisher will be considered at 11 in the NFL Draft.

Guard

You can’t just blame the tackles for this horrific offensive line. Tyronne Greene and Rex Hadnot split starts at left guard in the absence of retired Kris Dielman and neither played well. Right guard Louis Vazquez, meanwhile, was their only offensive lineman who played well this season. The problem is he’s a free agent. He’ll obviously need to be re-signed. I don’t want to see what this offensive line would look like without him.

Cornerback

Starting cornerbacks Quentin Jammer and Antoine Cason are both free agents, but neither one of them played well this past season. Jammer’s best days are well behind him as he turns 34 in June, while Antoine Cason has been up and down in his career since going in the 1st round in 2008, but he picked a bad year to be down as this was his contract year. Even if he returns as a starter, they need a replacement for Quentin Jammer, to go with Marcus Gilchrist, a promising nickel back, and Cason long term.

Rush Linebacker

The Chargers need a bookend long term for 2012 1st round pick Melvin Ingram. Jarret Johnson and Shaun Phillips are both heading into their age 32 seasons. The former isn’t much of a pass rusher, as his strength is stuffing the run, while Phillips is a free agent this off-season. Meanwhile, Antawn Barnes proved his random 11 sack performance in 2011 was a complete fluke. He had just 3 this season and barely played down the stretch.

Running Back

Unsurprisingly, after firing Norv Turner and AJ Smith, a report came out that the Chargers weren’t as high on Ryan Mathews’ upside as they were when they took him 12th overall in 2010. Turner and Smith had big plans for him, but that didn’t get them very far. He managed just 184 carries because of injuries and averaged just 3.7 YPC when he did play. Mathews actually had a strong season in 2011 when paired with another back so they should add a compliment for him and insurance since he gets hurt so much. He’s clearly not the lead back they thought he was.

Middle Linebacker

Takeo Spikes may have played his last NFL snap. No one would be shocked if he hung them up. Even if he returns, he’ll be 37 in 2013. They need a successor. Jonas Mouton was a 2nd round pick of the old regime in 2011, but he’s played just 5 snaps in 2 seasons, so it’s unlikely he’s seen as a long term solution, especially with a new regime coming in.

Quarterback

Right now, I don’t think Philip Rivers is the problem. It’s his supporting cast. They should focus on adding talent around him rather than adding competition for him. The goal should be to determine Rivers’ future as the quarterback of the Chargers by the off-season after the 2014 season, when they’ll have to cut him, owed 15.75 million in a contract year, or sign him to a long-term extension into his mid-30s. However, adding a developmental quarterback through the draft isn’t a bad idea just in case he really is Carson Palmer 2.0.

3-4 Defensive End

Jon Gruden is physical incapable of saying anything bad about anyone, so I got a kick out of how he described Vaughn Martin during the 2011 season, saying something along the lines of “once this guy learns how to play, he’s going to be an excellent football player.” That’s not inaccurate, but he doesn’t seem to have learned how to play, struggling in every season as a rotational 3-4 defensive end. He’s a free agent this off-season and the Chargers should bring in another guy to rotate with Kendall Reyes and Corey Liuget, as well as to move inside at times and spell nose tackle Cam Thomas. Aubrayo Franklin is also a free agent this off-season.

Kicker

Nick Novak is a free agent who will need to be retained or replaced if he’s not brought back.

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Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers: Divisional Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 2 NFL Picks, 49ers, Packers

This is one of three rematch games this week. It has several obvious differences from Baltimore/Denver and New England/Houston. Both of those games were blowouts. Both of those games were fairly recent. These two teams played way back in week 1 and San Francisco won 30-22. And both of those games are once again expected to be blowouts, as the line on both is huge. This might be the most intriguing game of the weekend.

Because these two teams played so long ago, it’s tough to extrapolate what happened in that game to this one. Green Bay probably was healthier then as they’ve lost right tackle Bryan Bulaga to injury since, but they’re now the healthiest they’ve been in a long while with all 4 of their top receivers healthy at once, as well as defensive keys Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson. In spite of injuries, they have still won 10 of their last 12, including 2 over playoff qualifying Minnesota and an impressive blowout in Houston. Because of all their injuries this season, they’re a deeper team than they were earlier in the year. Key players like Randall Cobb, Sam Shields, and Casey Hayward barely played in the week 1 matchup.

San Francisco is also less healthy than they were week 1. Justin Smith tore his triceps against New England and they’ve really missed him. Justin, not Aldon, is the most irreplaceable defensive player on the 49ers’ defense. He’s the one who draws all the double teams, giving Aldon lots of one on one opportunities, where he’s close to unstoppable.

Among all the top pass rushers in the league, no one saw single blocking as often as Aldon Smith. However, he struggled when he was the one doubled in Justin’s absence, failing to record a single sack. It’s no coincidence that the Patriots scored 34 in the 2nd half against their defense after scoring just 3 in the first half. Justin Smith left early in the 2nd half of that game. They then went on to be blown out by the Seahawks the following week, before struggling against Arizona week 17, allowing the what was just the Cardinals’ 3rd passing touchdown since week 5.

Smith returns this week, but it remains to be seen how effective he can be. He’s a very tough player, but some doctors opined that his injury would take 12 weeks to heal and it’s barely been 4. Of course, because his greatest value is taking on double teams, if the Packers still fear him enough to double team him, his presence in the lineup will be valuable, even as a decoy. If they choose to make Justin prove it first, the 49ers could be in real trouble defensively with their center piece playing hurt. It’s a question mark, but the situation obviously favors the Packers and their elite offense.

The Packers may have an elite offense, but their defense certainly didn’t look elite against the 49ers week 1, allowing the 49ers to score 30 points and Alex Smith to complete 20 of 26 for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns. Colin Kaepernick is an upgrade over him, but I wouldn’t be so sure he’ll exceed those numbers or even match them. Smith didn’t make many tough throws. The Packers blew coverages all game, something they didn’t really do the rest of the season. In fact, they were the NFL’s 11th ranked scoring defense and 8th ranked passing defense this season. They may have just not been taking the 49ers seriously in what was clearly a statement game for the 49ers.

They should present Kaepernick with a tough matchup, especially at home in his first NFL start. Quarterbacks are just 4-10 ATS as home favorite making their postseason debut since 2002. If their defense were at full strength, they definitely would have the supporting cast to overcome that, but I don’t know about Smith. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers are three quarterbacks with Super Bowl rings in a postseason where 8 quarterbacks came in without a single playoff win. I think they have a tremendous advantage over everyone else and I fully expect them to make up 3 of the NFL’s final 4. Kaepernick’s inexperience will definitely favor the Packers.

I also think the Packers’ playing last week favors them. Momentum is huge in the playoffs. They have it, just like they did in 2010. In 2011, they came into the playoffs with Rodgers having just 1 win in his last 3 games (he didn’t play week 17) and then he sat another week. This year, I think they’re in a much better position for a deep playoff run.

There are some trends that also favor the Packers. Teams are 52-27 ATS as road dogs since 2002 trying to avenge a same season home loss as favorites. Going off that, Aaron Rodgers is 13-6 ATS as a dog in his career. He’s also only lost to the same team twice in the same season in his career, winning 3 of 4 same season revenge games, ironically losing twice to Brett Favre and the Vikings in 2009. I really like the Packers in this one. I thought about dropping the units because Green Bay is a publicly backed underdog, but I decided against it because I think it’s with good reason. Green Bay is my pick of the week.

Green Bay Packers 27 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against spread: Green Bay +3 (-110) 5 units

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Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos: Divisional Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 2 NFL Picks, Broncos, Ravens

Both the Patriots and Broncos are both around 9.5 point favorites against the Texans and Ravens respectively. Both teams blew out their current opponent late in the same season. I took the points with the Texans because I thought the line was too big, but I’m not going to do the same thing here for several reasons. The Texans and Patriots play a same site rematch. Non-divisional teams are 26-12 ATS in a same site revenge game since 1989, but 14-20 ATS when the site is different.

Plus, unlike when the Texans and Patriots played the first time, it wasn’t a complete blowout. It might sound counterintuitive, but the bigger the regular season blowout, the more likely a team covers in the rematch, especially in the playoffs. This is because it creates an added motivational edge for the team who got blown and it typically skews the line heavily in favor of the favorite based off just one game.

Going off that, I don’t think the Texans’ play in New England was indicative of the type of team they are. They just had a very bad game. The Ravens, meanwhile, were just as bad as they looked in a 34-17 home loss to the Broncos. They went 10-6 and could have easily gone 8-8 if not for Ben Roethlisberger’s injury (or even Byron Leftwich’s injury) and Ray Rice’s ridiculous 4th and 29 conversion. They had a ridiculous 5 wins by 3 or fewer points. They only outgained opponents by 25 yards this season and, coming into the playoffs, they hadn’t beaten a single playoff team since losing Lardarius Webb early in the season (0-4).

Last week, Ray Lewis returned and they beat Indianapolis, but what Lewis adds to this team at this point in his career is mostly intangible (the Ravens still struggles against the run last week) and Indianapolis was the worst team in the playoffs, with just 3 wins against teams with a .500 or better record and two wins by more than a touchdown. And Indianapolis was still only outgained by 20.

Now they have to go to Denver and play a significantly better team than them who beat them by 17 in a result that should have surprised no one (that’s the difference, the Houston blowout loss was a surprise at the time because they’re a better team than Baltimore). And that was in Baltimore. Now they have to go to Denver and play in the high altitude, where the Broncos lost just once this season.

The Ravens aren’t a very good road team anyway. Despite outscoring teams by an average of 10.9 points per game at home over the last 2 seasons, they are being outscored by -0.7 points per game on the road. Joe Flacco’s statistics are the most noticeable difference. Over the last 2 seasons, he’s completed 59.5% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions at home. On the road, he’s completed 57.4% of his passes for an average of 6.2 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. As a result, they average 28.7 points per game at home and 19.0 per game on the road during that time period.

I think Denver is a little overrated. People like to completely dismiss their first 5 games because Peyton Manning was still getting into form, which makes some sense, but if you do that, they’ve only played two .500 teams all season. I don’t think they’re the Super Bowl favorite and I question how they’ll match up with someone like the Patriots or an NFC team in the Super Bowl. However, they should be able to get a blowout here. During their 11 game winning streak, none of the games were really even close and as easy as the schedule was, Baltimore isn’t much better. They’re also overrated and were blown out at home against the Broncos earlier this year. Denver is the pick, however obvious it might seem.

Denver Broncos 31 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against spread: Denver -9.5 (-110) 2 units